Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/19/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021
00Z TAF CYCLE
Increasing mid-level moisture from the west has resulted in scattered
showers along and west of the Continental Divide this afternoon.
These showers are producing more gusty and erratic winds than rain,
and TAF sites at KGUP and KFMN are the best candidates for impacts
through the overnight hours. This shower activity is expected to
persist across the northwest through tonight, and there`s also the
potential for patchy MVFR conditions to develop at KGUP and KFMN
after 06Z. Moisture and cloud cover will continue to spread eastward
tomorrow with another round of showers with gusty winds impacting
western NM as well as the RGV. Otherwise, moderately breezy winds are
expected tomorrow afternoon across most of the area as upper-level
winds strengthen in response to an approaching storm system.
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021...
A disturbance crossing the northern and central Rockies will trigger
scattered to isolated, and gusty, showers and thunderstorms over the
northwest third of New Mexico tonight and Sunday. In the wake of the
system, temperatures will trend cooler during the first half of the
work week. Highs will bottom out near and below normal on Tuesday
with 60s in the mountains and 70s at lower elevations, except for
some 80s in the central and southern valleys. East winds may return
to Albuquerque early Tuesday morning with gusts potentially reaching
30 mph below canyons. A ridge of high pressure will build back over
New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday causing high temperatures to
rebound a few to several degrees above normal again. Temperatures may
then trend cooler on Friday as another disturbance crosses the
northern and central Rockies and sends a cold front southward into
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have begun along the NM/AZ
border and across portions of northwestern New Mexico, with MLCAPE
around 100-200 J/kg. With PWAT`s on the lower side, a dry microburst
can`t be ruled out. CAM`s are showing storms continuing well into
the overnight hours across the west and dissipating near sunset. The
HRRR and NBM have showers reaching as far east as the Double Eagle
Airport (and maybe even the Sunport) by early tomorrow morning. As a
shortwave trough begins to cross the state tomorrow, the high will
take on a more SW-NE orientation. There will be slightly greater
storm coverage on Sunday, with showers focusing across the northwest
half of the state. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
across western and central areas of the state, while remaining about
10 degrees above normal across the east. Breezy conditions will
occur overnight on Sunday night with the passage of the trough and
the northern periphery of the state at the southern tip of the 300
mb jet with winds close to 50 kts.
As of this writing, we are currently in the mid 80s at the ABQ
Sunport with a few more hours of peak heating left. It`s possible
we`ll break the record for 12 or more days of 90 degrees or above!
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
High temperatures on Monday will fall a few to 11 degrees as a
Pacific cold front crosses from the northwest and a backdoor cold
front arrives from the northeast. Winds will be gusty on Monday, with
the strongest west and northwest wind gusts potentially reaching up
to 40 mph over the northern mountains and northwest. An upper level
trough exiting the northern and central Rockies may trigger a few
showers around Raton Pass as it clips northeast NM Monday morning.
The backdoor cold front will bring gusty north and northeast winds to
eastern areas Monday night and Tuesday morning. The front looks to push
through gaps in the central mountain chain with east canyon wind
gusts up to 30 mph in the Albuquerque area around sunrise Tuesday. In
the wake of the upper level trough cool air advection will continue
in the low levels as a high pressure system builds back over NM and
AZ on Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to fall a few to 15
additional degrees east of the continental divide while readings
stabilize farther west. After the recent heat wave, readings near
normal in the west and a few to 11 degrees below normal in the east
Tuesday afternoon may be welcomed by many.
High temperatures will then rebound Wednesday and Thursday with highs
climaxing a few to 10 degrees above normal again Thursday afternoon
under the persistent high pressure system aloft. Models diverge on
how quickly an upper level trough crossing the northwest US will
pinch off a low pressure system over the Great Basin Wednesday into
Thursday, but there is general agreement that the upper low will
migrate southwestward over the CA coast by Thursday night. The
parent upper level trough will then continue eastward over the
northern and central Rockies, weakening our ridge of high pressure,
and sending a backdoor cold front into eastern NM, with a few to 6
degrees of cooling across most of the forecast area on Friday. Highs
should then rebound on Saturday as the ridge aloft builds back
northward over the Land of Enchantment.
High pressure will get shunted off to the southeast today, as an
upper-level disturbance approaches the state and crosses on
Sunday/Sunday night. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
focus across the northwestern portion of the state this evening and
tomorrow. Another backdoor front will enter the northeastern portion
of the state on Monday and makes progress through the gaps of the
central mountain chain Monday night. Brief and patchy critical fire
weather conditions will be possible on Monday across the north
before the passage of the front, but overnight humidity recoveries
will be fair across the west and good to excellent across the east
and Haines on the lower end. A few showers may develop along and
behind the front Monday night across the far northeast. Tuesday will
be the coolest day of the week, but as the ridge begins to build up
again late Tuesday/Wednesday, the cooling is short lived. There are
several different scenarios for what the long-term will look like,
but overall warm and dry conditions prevail.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021
18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated H5 under
influence of large ridge, with shortwave trough approaching the
four corners region. At the surface trough was deepening across
eastern colorado in response to approaching system, with clear
skies across most of the area due to subsidence with H5.
Primary forecast concerns are going to be focused on winds with
the trough, temperatures and associated fire weather risks.
South-southwesterly winds will remain in the 15 to 25 kt range
through the afternoon and throughout the evening in many locations
as gradient tightens and strong LLJ develops. A few locations,
especially on local ridges may stay quite warm tonight as winds
never get a chance to decouple tonight. Threat for any heating
based convection looks minimal through the early evening as strong
capping inversion remains over the area. On Sunday, stronger winds
will initially be over eastern CWA during the morning as LLJ veers
to the east, but as sfc trough deepens expect winds similar to
Saturday to develop across the whole area.
With temperatures starting warmer on Sunday than today and a
decent amount of sunshine expect temperatures to respond by
climbing into the 90s. With drier air working into area from the
west, expect to see RH values fall to around 20 percent in eastern
Colorado. With ongoing strong winds, going to be close to seeing
Red Flag warning conditions on Sunday afternoon. With current
pushing extreme ends of temperature and humidity forecast
remaining above criteria, don`t think I can justify a watch or
warning at this point. Cold front will sweep across the area
overnight Sunday, likely in the 06-12Z period. Given the timing of
the front, do not expect to see much of an impact aside from a
period of gusty north winds.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021
At the start of the period, an upper trough can be seen entering the
northern and central Plains, placing the region under southwest
flow. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is pushing through the
region. The disturbance brings chances for rain showers to the area
on Monday, along with about a 20 degree dip in high temperatures.
Will need to monitor for some breezy north winds during the day
behind the frontal passage. Precipitation chances persist Monday
night, tapering off to the south.
The cooler weather continues into Tuesday, with dry weather
currently anticipated as the trough progresses east. By Wednesday, a
ridge over the west coast nudges into the Plains, bumping
temperatures back up and keeping things dry as northwest flow
On Thursday and Friday, another disturbance looks to travel from
Canada into the northern Plains/Great Lakes. While this system does
not currently generate precipitation for our area, it could bring
slightly cooler conditions on Friday and Saturday.
Get ready for a return of fall, with highs in the upper 60s and low
70s on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures return to the 80s by
Thursday, with some 70s reappearing for Friday and Saturday. Low
temperatures range in the 40s/low 50s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 948 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021
VFR conditions are expected during the entire 06 TAF period. LLWS
will exist at both KMCK and KGLD around 1500 feet due to a
strenghting low level jet, the wind shear is currently expected to
weaken around 13Z at each terminal. At KGLD winds winds will remain
from the S to SW throughout day with gusty winds returning during
the mid morning hours with some gusts potentially approaching 25
knots. At KMCK gusty winds are anticipated throughout the day due
to a weak surface low over the Nebraska Panhandle. The winds for
KMCK will decrease near sunset Sunday with the additional loss of
diurnal mixing. Looking ahead just after 06Z Monday a strong cold
is forecasted to move through the area with wind gusts of 35-40
knots possible along and behind the front.
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
The 00Z TAF forecast discussion follows...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period at all sites outside
of potential storm activity during the afternoon hours. Some
possible exceptions include potential for light MVFR fog at some W
AR sites toward daybreak. Best potential for storms will be over W
AR, and prob30 mention was warranted at most sites for Sunday
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/
Steady increase in showers and storms over the past few hours
across western AR and this trend will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon with a gradual expansion westward.
Coverage will decrease quickly after sunset. Similar conditions
continue on Sunday and again far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas remain the favored region for scattered afternoon
showers and storms.
Warming low/mid levels and departure of the mid level weakness
will allow Monday to remain mostly dry with unseasonably warm
temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front. A corridor of
high based convection may precede the front Monday morning,
otherwise the focus for storm development will be on the sfc
boundary which will likely move into northeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon. Deeply mixed boundary layer may allow for any initial
storms to produce locally gusty winds with a focus toward more
elevated post frontal convection as the front presses steadily
eastward coupled with quickly stabilizing boundary layer.
Consistent signal remains for the bulk of the post frontal
convection to spread from NE OK through NW AR with lower chances
southward. Overall precip amounts also continue to look rather
light given the progressive nature of the frontal boundary. Expect
precip chances to end across western AR by early Tues afternoon.
Post frontal temps will be noticeably cooler and the dry post
frontal airmass will allow overnight lows to cool below normal
both Tues and Wed nights.
Ridging expands through the western CONUS allowing a reinforcing
cold front to sweep through the Plains by late week. A lack
of moisture will keep the frontal passage dry but it will
reinforce the broad sfc ridge through late week maintaining dry
weather and near cloudless skies. A warming trend likely returns
by next weekend with temperature quickly returning to at or above
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 93 72 97 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 70 90 71 95 / 20 30 0 0
MLC 67 91 69 96 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 65 93 69 97 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 64 87 66 91 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 66 86 67 91 / 20 40 0 10
MKO 68 89 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 65 90 69 94 / 0 10 0 10
F10 67 92 69 98 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 69 88 69 94 / 20 10 0 0