Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/12/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
945 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil conditions to prevail through tonight. A
warmer and more humid airmass will arrive Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
Some thunderstorms could become strong to severe with locally
heavy rainfall. Following the passage of the cold front, dry
weather briefly returns to the area on Monday before another
round of showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...Generally clear skies as winds have generally decoupled
across the region. Did make some adjustments per NY Mesonet and
METAR observations with wind, temperature, dewpoint grids. Also,
minor update to overnight lows as a few areas across the terrain
have already attained the expected low temperatures. Overall, a
quiet forecast overnight. Some increase in cloud coverage is
expected over the Adirondacks late.
Prev Disc...
Tranquil conditions expected this evening as high
pressure shifts eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast, with just
some patchy mid/high level clouds around. Temperatures will be
cooling into the upper 50s to lower 60s prior to midnight.
A slight southerly breeze will continue overnight, resulting in
better mixing in some spots. High and mid level clouds will
also increase after midnight associated with an upper level
trough moving eastward through central/southern Quebec, so
temperatures will not be as cool as last night with mainly
mid/upper 50s for lows. A cold front will be approaching from
the St. Lawrence valley, which could bring a few showers to the
western Adirondacks late tonight. Fog is generally not expected
due to increasing clouds and the southerly breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main concern in the short term will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall late
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Our region will be in a zonal westerly flow aloft Sunday into
Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will gradually be
moving southward across the area but is expected to slow its
southward progress as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the
front. The front may stall around or just south of I-90 late
Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate fairly strong capping
through much of the day, so chances for thunderstorms should
remain fairly low until late afternoon to early evening.
Temperatures will warm well into the 70s with even lower 80s
south of Albany ahead of the cold front. Cooler 60s for the
western Adirondacks where the cold front will pass through
earlier. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the mid 60s along
and ahead of the front, signaling a return in humid conditions.
The cap will erode Sunday evening, as an upper level
disturbance moves through from west to east. Latest CAMs
indicating potential for multiple rounds of convection focused
along and south of the front late Sunday into Sunday night.
Potential for severe storms continues to increase, as guidance
indicating enough instability (HREF mean MUCAPE of 700-1500 J/Kg
from around I-90 south) and abundant 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt
for storm organization and upscale growth. Main threat looks to
be damaging wind gusts, although hail will be possible with
700-500 mb lapse rates of around 6-7 degC/Km forecast. At this
time there doesn`t appear to be enough buoyancy for large hail
but will continue to monitor trends. Also of concern will be
potential for locally heavy rain with possible convective cells
repeatedly moving over the same areas. PWAT anomalies forecast
from the NAEFS to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV, so will have to
watch for isolated flash flooding in addition to severe threat.
Main time frame for strongest storms looks to be from early
Sunday evening through a few hours after Midnight. As with most
convective situations, there are some timing differences in the
guidance with the HRRR showing the greatest threat around 8 PM
to 1 AM, while the NAMNest is later around 10 PM to 3 AM. With
zonal flow aloft, confidence is fairly low with regards to
timing, but higher for storm potential and impacts. At this time
most of the region from around I-90 and Capital District south
is in a Marginal Risk Outlook, with a Slight Risk in the eastern
Catskills, but will monitor for possible eastward expansion of
the Slight Risk area in subsequent outlooks.
At this time Monday looks to be a tranquil day, with subsidence
and northwest flow in wake of Sunday night`s cold front/upper
level disturbance passage. Temperature will be cooler, but still
near normal for mid September with highs in the mid
60s(mountains) to mid/upper 70s(valleys).
A surface anticyclone is expected to build eastward across
southern Quebec into northern New England Monday night providing
mainly dry/seasonable conditions. However, some guidance
showing a few showers developing north of the stalled front.
Will just mention slight/low chance pops south of Albany at this
time. With surface winds expected to become light, patchy fog
will be possible in favored sheltered valleys and locations near
bodies of water north of Albany.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It appears out long term forecast will be quite active as
autumn attempts to make some inroads across the northern Conus
and summer hanging on across the southern portions of the Conus.
At this time, seems the northeast and middle Atlantic will be
the dividing zone with active weather. The other concern is
ongoing/developing tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico and
just eastward of the Bahamas.
Tuesday, per global model consensus, our frontal zone to the
south of the region is forecast to return back as a warm front
as upstream potent jet approached the western Great Lakes. Main
question is will there be enough lift for elevated or even
surface based convection to develop during the afternoon hours.
As it is a non- zero probability, we will place higher PoPs just
to the northwest of Albany which would be closer to upper
support and stronger low level jet support. Highs climb well
into the 70s with dewpoints climbing back into the 60s.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night, this appears to be the most
active portion of the long term forecast. The aforementioned
warm front is expected to rise northward as surface low tracks
across southeast Canada. Its associated cold front remains
upstream Tuesday night and begins the approach during Wednesday.
A rather warm, humid and unstable air mass is expected across
the region. A noticeable low level jet with magnitudes at or
above 25kts is progged along with dewpoints well into the 60s
ahead of this cold front should result in a line of
convection(s). At the moment, this frontal boundary is expected
to drop southward Wednesday night. However, the large unknown at
the moment will be what if any tropical activity will have on
the synoptic environment across the region. If something were to
develop in the Gulf, potential for some of this moisture to
become entrained within the southwesterly flow. If something
were to develop off the southeast coastline, this too will have
some potential impact with a slower frontal progression than
currently forecast.
This too will have implications Thursday into Friday with a
very low confidence forecast at this time. So we followed a
combination of ensemble MOS and WPC forecast synoptic features
with a slight chance to chance of showers/t-storms with near to
above normal temperatures.
For information on the tropics, please refer to the latest
information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Near ideal flight conditions this evening with
VFR category through tonight. Southerly winds will prevail as
well with speeds around 10kts or less. LLWS will increase ahead
of the approaching frontal system from the west and north. Some
increase in high and mid level cloud cover expected later
tonight.
Through Sunday, combination of increasing humidity and low level
jet, the threat for convection increases Sunday afternoon. While
VFR conditions should prevail through most of the day, chance of
convection will increase the potential for MVFR conditions in
the afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil conditions to prevail through tonight. A
warmer and more humid airmass will arrive Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
Some thunderstorms could become strong to severe with locally
heavy rainfall. Following the passage of the cold front, dry
weather briefly returns to the area on Monday before another
round of showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday into
Wednesday.
Relative humidity values will increase to between 75 and 95
percent tonight. Relative humidity values will drop to minimum
values of around 55 to 75 percent Sunday afternoon. RH values
will increase to between around 100 percent Sunday night.
Winds tonight will be south-southwest around 5 to 15 mph,
becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph on Sunday with gusts of 20 to
25 mph. Winds Sunday night will shift to the northwest around 5
to 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions expected to prevail through tonight into Sunday
morning, except for a few showers well north and west of Albany.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Anomalously high
moisture will be in place. Some areas could see repeated rounds
of thunderstorms with downpours, which could result in poor
drainage flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas as
well as isolated flash flooding.
Drier weather is expected on Monday, followed by renewed
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday as
a frontal system moves across the region.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Main/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma/JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
959 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Cold front slipping south/southeast across the region later this
afternoon/evening...roughly along/south of I-90 around 00z. Ample
low level warming (+13 C 700 mb ahead of the boundary) will keep the
atmosphere deeply capped with not enough forcing from the front to
spark any convection through the afternoon/early evening. With the
stable layer extending upwards of 700 mb, the usual standbys for
nocturnal convection of 850 mb jet/moisture transport won`t help.
Looking higher a loft, RAP 700 mb winds/moisture transport does show
the potential for a sheared ribbon of convergence roughly around I-
90, kicking in near 05z. Some sloping frontogenetic lift north of
the sfc front could support this area. Might be enough to kick off
isold/scattered convection. Beefy instability aloft is on the wane
by that time, but enough that if storms due manifest, a few could
become strong with a hail threat. Minimal wind shear support
(perhaps 30 kts in the 2-7 km layer).
The front sets up shop west to east across southern IA/northern IL
for Sun/start of the new work week. Bits of upper level energy could
traverse eastward, north of the front, providing enough lift for a
few showers/isold storms. Along and south of the front remains
capped off.
Better chances will be tied to an upper level shortwave trough which
the NAM/GFS/EC bring across the region Mon night/Tue morning. Bulk
of the upper level energy could hold across northern portions of
MN/WI, but the system will drag a cold front along with it,
providing another means of lift. Low level moisture transport will
help fuel the chances. Progressive system, and most of the rain
threat could/would exit east/south of the local area by the
afternoon. That said, if it`s a bit slower, convection could respark
along the front with the aid of afternoon instability...potential
impacts for northeast IA into central WI. Severe threat looks
minimal at this time.
After a summery day of highs in the 80s and relatively high
humidity, the colder/drier post the front will round out the weekend
on a rather cool note. Highs closer to 70 - roughly 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than today - with much less humidity.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Quick moving, zonal flow a loft is promised by the GFS and EC for
much of the new week. A few shortwave troughs could slip through
bringing rain chances, with Thu/Thu night currently showing the most
promise. Both the GFS and EC drive upper level energy across the
northern plains Thu night, with a cold front well ahead of it. Low
level moisture transport northward into the boundary could fuel
areas of showers/storms. The GFS hints at a bit of shortwave energy
moving in from the southwest, ahead of the front and northern
trough. The EC doesn`t depict this and GEFS ensemble members show
little support. Looks like an outlier at this time. Will keep with
blend for now. A smattering of rain chances after that, mostly with
lingering frontal boundary and weak ripples a loft. No clear signal
on where/when for any chance greater than a 20/30.
Looking for a dry day? Wed looks to be the day with high pressure
moving overhead post the Tue system.
Temperatures could take a brief upswing back to summer for the
following weekend with both models suggesting some shortwave ridge
building. Any warm up looks brief, currently centered on Sunday
(mid-upper 80s?).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Continuing to monitor rain chances developing late this evening
into the early morning hours of Sunday. Weak forcing behind a cold
front stalled well south of the TAF sites may trigger scattered
showers overnight - already seeing a few elevated radar returns to
the north (not yet making it to the ground due to dry low
levels). Weak moisture transport is contributing to a developing
VFR stratocu deck south of I-90 at this hour. Hi-res models show
that cloud deck thickening/expanding slightly as we approach 06Z
with potential for showers developing thereafter. There is a
conditional threat for a thunderstorm as well, with plenty of
instability aloft. However, weak forcing is expected to limit the
likelihood of storms the rest of tonight. Hi-res models suggest
shower activity will be mainly focused just north of the TAF
sites and the I-90 corridor through daybreak, so have maintained
VCSH.
The low levels dry out again to some extent by midday Sunday.
While some weak energy aloft will ripple overhead during the day
and potentially generate additional rain chances, it`s doubtful
any rain chances would manifest as anything more than sprinkles or
a brief shower at the TAF sites so have continued VCSH for now.
Winds generally north to northeast through the period around 10
knots or less.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Kurz
And with that, I conclude my final forecast discussion as a
National Weather Service meteorologist. I`m honored to have
served my community and worked with the finest minds and
friendliest men and women of the scientific community. It has
been a wonderful three decades.
- Dan Padavona
Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center June 1994 to August 1995
NWS Taunton MA August 1995 to January 1996
NWS Binghamton NY January 1996 to September 2021
345 PM Update...
Ridging over the region flattens out tonight and a cold front
will drift southward out of Ontario, Canada and with zonal flow
developing. The flow becomes zonal with strong westerlies aloft
pushing eastward over New York. The aforementioned cold front
eventually makes it over Central NY and stalls. It is still
unclear exactly how far south this front will make it, but it
will be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
evening as a short wave pushes eastward out of the Great Lakes.
Models are currently showing convection developing across
Michigan tomorrow afternoon. As short wave pushes east, it will
encounter an EML plume over Michigan/Great Lakes Region, with
steep mid level lapse rates over 8C/km. How this convection
evolves will determine the severe threat in our area tomorrow
evening/night. A strong MCS may develop and track along the axis
of the front and across Central NY and the Southern Tier.
Damaging winds will be the main threat from this MCS. Also,
PWATs climb to about 1.75" and the mean flow will be aligned
with the front with short Corfidi vectors that may support
backbuilding/training convection and localized flash flooding
will be possible. Have significantly increased thunderstorm
chances for tomorrow evening, and some areas may see localized
rainfall amounts over 2".
What remains a bit uncertain for tomorrow is how far south the
front will make it, and thus where exactly does this corridor
of heavy rain/thunderstorms track. Model guidance is now
clustering most of the activity between the Southern Tier and
the NYS Thruway Corridor, so that is where the highest PoPs are
at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active pattern sets up through the short term period as a series
of disturbances run through mainly zonal flow across the Northeast.
On Monday, there`s some uncertainty early in the morning for
lingering showers behind one passing wave that is likely to have
brought showers in overnight Sunday-Monday. Will leave a short
period of chance PoPs from 12Z-15Z before being fairly certain that
most of the remainder of the day will be precip free as we get
between waves with some high pressure nosing in from Quebec. Then,
later in the afternoon into Monday night, another upper wave will
approach the region offering another chance at showers and
thunderstorms. There will also be a warm front lifting into WNY and
NWPA to provide low level support. The upper feature will again be
moving quite fast through the area within the stout jet level flow
and it seems likely that PoPs will be lowering by Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, an upper midwest/south central Canada system will lead
to increased low-level southwesterly flow, enabling a northward push
to the low-level warm front into northern NY and New England by
Tuesday night. Increasing low-level convergence and instability is
expected as we break into the warm sector. Surface based CAPE is
juiced up into the 1500-2500 J/kg by both the 12Z NAM and GFS models
which is an uptick from previous runs. 0-6 km bulk shear will be
around 25 to 35 knots. Given the uncertainty in the timing crossing
the late afternoon/night threshold, we will stick with mainly chance
POPs for showers and storms, especially in central NY to Catskills
where front will be moving through.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper midwest/central Canada system progresses east on Wednesday
with the cold front moving through region during the prime time of
day. It will have good instability and bulk shear to work with
leading us to believe the day will be moderately active with showers
and thunderstorms. NBM continues to suggest likely PoPs and this
seems reasonable that many areas will see at least showers. Could be
a rather stormy afternoon with the heating providing fuel for
sustained thunderstorm activity. The frontal system looks to hang up
over northern PA, or possibly even south central NY for Wednesday
night and Thursday.
The remainder of the week looks quite uncertain with the near
stationary front lingering in the area into Friday, followed by
models suggesting a tropical system lurking to our south and being
off the DelMarVa coast on Friday...then slowly moving north into
saturday. The GFS captures the low near Cape May as it gets stuck
beneath surface high pressure over New England, while the ECMWF is
more progressive to kick the feature out to the east. Regardless of
which scenario plays out, we would still have to deal moisture
interacting with a cold front approaching from lower Ontario and
unsettled conditions would be the case for late week. Chance PoPs
carry us through much of this period with mild and muggy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period,
though some restrictions will be possible at some of the NY
terminals during the second half of the period. LLWS is expected
tonight, beginning between 03 and 05z at all terminals and
lasting until 11 or 12z. AVP is the exception as LLWS is only
expected for a short period of time.
Some rain showers will be possible at SYR and RME tomorrow
morning beginning around 09z, but confidence was too low to
include at SYR at this time. SYR and RME will also fall to Fuel
Alt tomorrow afternoon as ceilings drop ahead of an approaching
cold front. Ceilings are expected to lift near the end of the
period. Storms will be possible at ITH near the end of the
period. SYR and RME could also see some storms, but confidence
is too low at this time to include in the TAFs. For now, no
restrictions are expected but winds could be gusty in the
storms.
Winds throughout the period are going to remain gusty with gusts
of 15 to 20 kts possible through the majority of the period.
Winds become calmer tomorrow evening.
Outlook...
Sunday Night...There is potential for thunderstorms across
central NY late Sunday night into early Monday morning and
brief restrictions will be possible.
Monday through Thursday...Chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoons. Brief
restrictions possible, but otherwise mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DJP/MPK
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BTL/MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Forecast Highlights:
-- Temperatures approach records this afternoon
-- Periodic storm chances tonight through early next week
-- Briefly cooler on Wednesday, then heat and storms return
Details: It is a hot and humid September day across the state with
the only saving grace being patchy broken clouds over northern Iowa
and high level smoke across the state. While there is an opaqueness
to the sky aloft over central Iowa, the highest concentration of
smoke via GOES-East GeoColor is shown over eastern Iowa and south
into Missouri. This smoke and clouds will keep temperatures a few
degrees from their full potential and in line with midshift`s
forecast as well. This hot and humid weather is ahead of a front,
which has made its way into northern Iowa and is near or just north
of Spencer, Algona, and Mason City. The drier air/lower dewpoints
are lagging behind the boundary with the above mentioned sites still
around 70 degree dewpoints. While forecast soundings have shown that
mixing today is limited due to the inversion aloft (700mb
temperatures around 14C), drier air has not mixed down as of yet
this this afternoon. The HRRR and RAP continue to show middle 60
dewpoints by late this afternoon as drier air mixes down. The end
result -- whether that is because the temperatures are lower and the
dewpoint is higher or temperatures are higher and dewpoints are
lower -- will be a heat index peaking in the upper 80s over northern
Iowa and 90s elsewhere.
Tonight into early next week, the boundary will remain over the
region with fast, zonal flow impinging and eventually settling
through the state. For tonight, the boundary will remain over the
northern part of the state and the 850mb low level jet will increase
over Iowa into Minnesota. Most guidance shows any isolated storms
relegated to areas north of Iowa, but have kept low end PoPs over
northern Iowa tonight into early Sunday. As a shortwave trough moves
across region with the boundary still over northern Iowa, there
should be a slightly higher chance of some showers and storms Sunday
night. Any storms would be elevated with a very low severe risk
given the strong deep layer shear, but weak instability via plane
view and soundings. The boundary wavers northward on Monday in
advance of another shortwave trough advanced from the west. While
the highest storm chances will likely be north of Iowa Monday night
in conjunction with the shortwave`s path, some storms may cross over
northern Iowa. Further, the boundary will be pushed back into the
state yielding scattered storm chances Monday night into Tuesday and
eventually moving out Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 00z/12z Euro
and 12z CMC remains faster compared to the 00z/12z GFS and the 00z
CMC. So, while there is a period of PoPs Tuesday night into
Wednesday, if the faster solution becomes more likely will be able
to shorten that period. High pressure will settle in behind this
boundary with more seasonable temperatures. However, those will be
short-lived as southwesterly flow develops ahead of a more
significant long wave trough that will move over the Canadian
provinces into the northern states. This will result in highs back
above normal by late in the week with storm chances returning to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. Some
weak mixing should diminish by 03z or sooner.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Podrazik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1151 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.AVIATION...
Strong upper level low pressure tracking across far northwestern
Ontario has led to stout geostrophic southwesterlies across
Southeast Michigan. Dynamic upper level jet packet will cruise
eastward this evening creating the impetus for a surface cold front
to push southward across the Straits region and through Lower
Michigan overnight. Isolated convective showers have only now
developed along this front near the Tip of the Mitt and over the
northern Lake Huron basin. Convergence axis will sag southward
throughout the evening with potential for shower/tstorm activity
remaining to the north and east of the terminals across the Thumb
and Lake Huron. Cold advection in the wake of the front will lead to
some saturation and MVFR stratus development at MBS and FNT. The
front will stall out invof PTK on Sunday. Winds are expected to
become variable or light westerly along the front with southwesterly
winds 10 to 20 knots at DTW. A secondary jet max will then bring a
period of frontogenesis Saturday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on
likelihood for shower and thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon. Low confidence in spatial details but the most probable
location would be on the cool side of the frontal zone across the
northern cwa.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings AOB 5kft Sunday
* Low for thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure system has gradually meandered east across the
Mid-Atlantic South, while a strong low pressure system continues to
travel east across Ontario through the afternoon. Return flow from
the high and increasing proximity to the low pressure system has
resulted in a slight backing of surface and low-level flow, along
with a tightening of the pressure gradient and uptick in wind speeds
aloft. Diurnal mixing and the enhanced gradient will continue to
promote breezy conditions through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening, with southwest gusts around 25-30 mph. Warm air advection
also remains underway with h850 temperatures now residing between 13-
16C. This has allowed for a nice warm up of surface temperatures
back into the lower 80s. Strongest surge of waa pushes across SE MI
late tonight and overnight, with h850 temperatures rising around 16-
18C between 00Z-12Z Sun, while h700 temperatures surge to a
seasonally impressive 8-12C. Enhanced capping and antecedent dry
conditions has and will continue to produce nil weather for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures will
remain mild across the Metro region and south into the Ohio border,
with lows holding in the mid to upper 60s.
Progression of the Ontario low will draw a cold front across
northern lower Michigan between 00Z-04Z, before driving south across
the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb closer to 06Z, while an enhanced
jetlet at h700 sags south with the front. Frontal forcing and right
entrance dynamics will produce the chance for showers and
thunderstorms over this area given the building mid-level lapse
rates aoa 7 C/km and waning CAPE around 500 J/kg. HRRR suggests
elevated thermal profiles will limit convection and produce more of
an elevated threat, while the NAM is slower with the waa, thus
better capping holds until after 06Z. Overall, the risk for stronger
storm development looks limited over the northern Thumb especially
given the unfavorable time profile of storm development, but cannot
totally rule out an isolated gust to 60 or hail to an inch along the
boundary given the sufficient effective shear in place.
The cold front will continue to push into southern lower Michigan
before stalling on Sunday afternoon while brisk westerly flow aloft
holds over southern Michigan. This will invoke positive theta-e
advection of northern Plains origin and will draw moisture-rich air
over the cwa through the entirety of the day. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the
baroclinic zone with strong mid-level lapse rates holding in place.
Shortwaves rippling across relatively zonal flow across Wisconsin
could also aid in developing and pushing showers and thunderstorms
from the west through the afternoon. This shortwave feature will
draw across SE MI around and after 21Z while low-level convergence
enhances slightly with a southward push of the front. This will
bring better coverage of precipitation (widely scattered to
numerous) along and especially north of m59. Theta-e axis and
shortwave features will hold through Monday morning, bringing the
continued chance for shower and storm potential through late Monday
morning. This is a well capped high shear low SBCAPE regime and thus
most activity is expected to remain elevated, however, SWODY2 places
a marginal risk north of I-94 with the thinking that some organized
convection will be possible coming in from Wisconsin given the high
effective bulk shear under the energetic mid to upper-level flow
scheme. Hail to an inch and some isolated damaging wind gusts would
be the main concern for stronger organized convection.
Otherwise, temperature highs will be variable across SE MI, with
temperatures rising firmly into the 80s in the warm sector (making a
run towards 90 closer to the MI/OH border), and will hold in the
lower 70s across the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb. Less certainty
exists for temperatures highs closer to the stalled frontal boundary,
given boundary placement, cloud cover, and rain chances. The
uncertainty is observed in the NMB interquartile range where a +/- 9
spread potential exists across Pontiac up to Flint, with potential
highs ranging between 78 to 87 & 75-84, respectively.
An active pattern will hold through the midweek period as the
stalled frontal boundary again holds near the MI/OH border for the
first part of the day on Monday before pushing north late Monday
into Tuesday as low pressure pushes northeast into the Midwest.
Precipitation chances will hold across the Tri-Cities and Thumb
given the better proximity to the front. This system will continue
northeast into northern lower/U.P late Tuesday into Wednesday,
eventually drawing a cold front across Southeast Michigan, bringing
continued rain and thunderstorm chances for all of SE MI.
MARINE...
Tightened pressure gradient keeps southwest winds sustained around
15-20 kts, with gusts to 25 kts along the nearshore waters through
the evening. Strongest gusts to be felt closest to the shoreline, as
offshore flow combined with better mixing depths allows stronger
winds to reach the surface. Cold front still on track to drop
through the region late tonight, with isolated shower/thunderstorm
activity along the boundary and a shift to lighter winds from the
northwest. The front then stalls across southeast lower MI, setting
the stage for additional thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon
and evening, in which briefly enhanced winds and waves will be
possible. Expect periodic rain chances to continue through early
next week as additional disturbances track along the lingering
frontal boundary.
HYDROLOGY...
A stalled frontal boundary will produce isolated to widely scattered
showers with some thunderstorms starting throughout Sunday morning
and afternoon. An uptick in coverage is expected mainly north of m59
throughout Sunday afternoon and evening. Any repeated rain and
thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce between .25
to .75 inches of accumulation. Any repeated stronger thunderstorm
activity has the potential to produce localized higher amounts
between 1-2 inches north of m59 through late Sunday evening. Poor
drainage and urban flooding will be possible with this activity.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....AM
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front stretching across west-central to far northeast Wisconsin
early this afternoon. Surface temperatures are lagging behind the
projected heating curve so far today, which has inhibited
convective cloud and instability development. As a result of poor
low level lapse rates, the shower and storm threat looks low
enough to remove from the forecast for all areas except for far NE
WI where moisture convergence is the highest and cu looks the most
bubbly. As this front continues to move into southern WI,
thunderstorm chances remain the focus for tonight and Sunday.
Tonight...The cold front will continue to slowly move south where
it will stall across southern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, a shortwave
currently over Montana will track east into the northern
Mississippi Valley after midnight. Slight backing of the winds
aloft will likely lead to ascent over the stalled front across
southern Wisconsin. Central WI south of HWY 29 will likely be on
the northern fringes of any shower/storm development after 4 am.
Elevated instability less than 1000 j/kg and relatively weak
ascent could lead to a few storms, but the severe weather threat
appears low. Cooler temperatures are expected due to northeast
winds, with lows ranging from the upper 40s north to low 60s
south.
Sunday...The chance of showers and a few storms will continue
south of HWY 29 during the morning, before exiting east in the
afternoon. Instability is even less than overnight, so again, the
risk of severe weather appears low. Over northern WI, partly to
mostly sunny skies are expected. Cooler highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
A stationary front will be positioned to our south Sunday night
into Monday, with central and east central WI close enough to the
moisture/elevated instability gradient to support a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The front will lift north as a warm front Monday night, as low
pressure moves through western WI into the Upper Peninsula. Showers
and thunderstorms will become more widespread as a 35-50 knot
low-level jet takes aim on the forecast area. Deep layer shear is
quite strong, but instability looks too marginal to support a
significant severe threat. Suspect that heavy rainfall will be the
main concern, as PWATs increase to 1.5-1.7 inches across the
forecast area. A cold front will sweep through the area late
Monday night into Tuesday, and bring a continued chance of showers
and storms through early afternoon.
High pressure should bring mainly dry conditions Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, but another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday
night. Generally dry weather returns with the arrival of high
pressure Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
A cold front moving south across the area early this evening will
shift winds from the southwest to the northwest. Chances of
showers or storms continue to be very low, so no mention in the
early portion of the TAF. High clouds and some smoke in the mid to
upper-levels of the atmosphere will linger through much of the
night. Moisture overrunning the front may produce some light rain
or possibly a thunderstorm or two from a mid cloud deck south of
a Wausau to Green Bay line late tonight into Sunday morning.
Otherwise, good flying conditions are expected with this TAF
issuance.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Cooley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1136 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Surface analysis shows quick SW flow in place across Indiana amid a
tight pressure gradient. Strong high pressure was found across the
Carolinas...while a low was pushing into the western Plains.
Aloft...ridging was in place over the plains states and was allowing
some high clouds to stream across the upper midwest and into
Illinois and Indiana. Dew point temps remained in the 60s.
Little overall change is expected overnight. The strong pressure
gradient in place will allow some mixing overnight and should
prevent too much radiational cooling within this warm air advection
pattern. Thus expect low temperatures a bit warmer than the past few
nights. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies as forecast soundings
and time heights show a dry column. Overall...no significant
changes to the overall forecast.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
The short term period will consist of warm and windy conditions.
Strong, southwesterly warm advection will return above normal
temperatures to the area, providing lows in the upper 60s to near 70
and highs tomorrow that will top out from near 90 and possibly as
high as the low to mid 90s for some locals. Limited moisture is
expected with this advection as seen in model soundings, so will
keep PoPs essentially non-existent through the period.
Models show persistent tight low level pressure gradients overhead,
lasting throughout the period, as central Indiana will be sandwiched
between surface high pressure to the SE and a cold front to the NW.
This will create sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts over 25
mph possible at times.
The HRRR continues to show increasing smoke aloft today that will
continue beyond the short term. This smoke will filter some out
sunshine and if thick enough, could keep temperatures from getting
too extreme tomorrow. For now, going to back off by a degree or two
with the high temperatures in anticipation of the smoke. This will
also prevent sky from being clear as it would otherwise be within
this dry environment, so have also upped the sky coverage some.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
The long term forecast begins with upper ridging in place over
central Indiana, and this will keep well above normal temperatures
in the forecast early in the week. While 500 mb heights start to
fall as the ridge axis moves to the east on Monday night/Tuesday,
the well above normal temperature signal continues in the ensemble
situational awareness tables until Wednesday and will follow this
trend. After that, above normal temperatures continue to look likely
with the possible exception of during/just after frontal passage,
but these will be closer to normal (low to mid 80s for highs) than
early in the long term.
Chances for showers will return Tuesday afternoon and stick around
through Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the
northwest and moves slowly through the area. This will bring an
increase in cloud cover and decreasing temperatures for Wednesday as
well. Still some uncertainty regarding coverage of the showers and
while thunderstorms are possible given the instability, confidence
is low enough at this point to cap at slight chance or isolated
mention with the exception of Wednesday afternoon when instability
and forcing are maximized. Thursday into Friday, variability in the
model solutions increases and confidence in the upper pattern
decreases with some solutions showing more upper ridging and some
stalling the front while others bring up a wave from the southwest.
Thus will keep some slight chance (overnight) to mid range chance
(afternoon) PoPs going for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
IMPACTS:
-VFR Conditions are expected.
-Southwesterly surface winds at 10-20 kts with gusts around 25
knts throughout daytime heating hours on Sunday.
-Wind shear 020/23040KT starting overnight.
DISCUSSION:
A strong pressure gradient in place over Indiana along with LLJ max
axis around 40 knts will provide breezy conditions overnight and
through the day on Sunday. A strong SW flow will continue across the
Ohio Valley as Indiana is caught between high pressure over the
Carolinas and Low pressure over the western plains. Models show a
850mb LLJ over the area through Sunday afternoon. The gusty winds
aloft and strong gradient will result in some LLWS
overnight...mainly in the form of speed shear.
Forecast soundings continue to show a dry column overnight and into
Sunday. Thus only some high CI passing will be expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...KH
Long Term...CP
Aviation...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2021
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the
southern Rockies out into the Plains. Two vigorous shortwave are
noted, one over northern MT/sw Saskatchewan and a second (closed
mid-level low) over northern Ontario. The latter feature was
responsible for the elevated shra and few tsra that moved across
Lake Superior earlier today in association with low- level jet.
Some of these shra brushed the tip of the Keweenaw. Shra/tsra are
still firing in a narrow band over eastern Upper MI/Whitefish Bay
with the development zone into Luce County at times. Cold front
associated with the northern Ontario wave currently runs from far
eastern Upper MI, just s of Sault Ste Marie, wsw to Menominee
County. MLCAPE ahead of the front has increased to around 500j/kg.
With just enough capping, no sfc based convection has managed to
develop vcnty of the front yet. Even if sfc based convection tried
to take off, very strong deep layer shear of 60+kt would probably
be too much for the low MLCAPE to sustain any convection. Current
temps range from the upper 60s w and n close to Lake Superior to
the lwr 80s F s central.
Sfc high pres ridge currently over s central Canada will build se,
reaching the fcst area on Sun. This combined with current exiting of
the cold front to the s and e of the fcst area would suggest a dry
fcst tonight/Sun. However, there are some pcpn considerations.
First, progression of 120+kt upper jet streak supporting the wave
across northern Ontario will result in the right entrance of the jet
streak shifting across Upper MI tonight. Some of the models suggest
that a few -shra/sprinkles could streak across the fcst area in
response to the upper diffluence. At this point, given the dry lower
levels and mostly a complete lack of any mid-level instability to
support some vertical growth of clouds, did not introduce any pcpn
mention tonight. On Sun, the vigorous shortwave currently over MT
will be weakening as it moves into a more confluent flow regime over
the Upper Great Lakes. With the drier low-levels over the fcst area
and today`s cold front well to s extending from IA across far
southern Lwr MI, pcpn should not be a concern. In addition, the jet
streak associated with the shortwave will move across Upper MI,
supporting better overlap of upper diffluence and low to mid-level
moisture to the s of Upper MI. For the fcst area, the net result of
the upper diffluence will be considerable high and mid-level
cloudiness thru Sun morning with clouds then thinning out from w to
e during the aftn. As for temps, expect lows tonight in the mid 40s
to mid 50s F, coolest interior w. Clouds will aid a cooler day on
Sun, but readings won`t be too far from mid Sept normals. High temps
will range from the low/mid 60s closer to Lake Superior to
around 70F s central.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2021
A mixed pattern of ridging and troughing looks to dominate the
extended period. This should keep temps near to slightly above
average, and give us plenty of chances for precip for this upcoming
week (CPC 6-10 day temp and precip forecast follows this vein of
thought). More details below.
Ridging should build over us Sunday night as cool Canadian air in
the lower levels remains. Model guidance has indicated an increase
in cloud cover Sunday night, particularly in the upper levels.
Therefore, mostly clear skies are expected to become partly cloudy
later in the night as the dewpoint depression in the atmospheric
profile across the U.P. decreases ahead of an approaching shortwave.
The NBM seems to pick up on this and has a slight increase in low
temps Sunday night across the CWA; therefore, I went with that model
solution for the Sunday night temps. We could still see some of the
cold spots in the interior west get into the upper 30s, but now it
does seem a little less likely. Also, temps should be a little bit
higher in the east, where model guidance has suggested that there
will be greater cloud cover later during the overnight hours.
On Monday, expect WAA over us in the afternoon hours as a shortwave
from the Northern Plains approaches. Expect just about your average
September day Monday; pleasant weather, highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s, partly cloudy skies, and fairly light winds. The shortwave
should move over us Monday night. Models have trended towards more
precip occurring over the area, as the NAM, Canadian, and Euro all
have the shortwave low moving over us Monday night and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the GFS still has the shortwave low moving over the
western and central lake. However, it now is trending toward a weak
front bringing higher QPF amounts over us Monday night and Tuesday
as well. Therefore, while I`m not quite sold on a soaking rainfall
event quite yet, if the Euro, Canadian, or NAM solutions come to
pass, we could definitely see one across the area (although the
Keweenaw may miss out on getting a soaking rainfall). Even if the
GFS solution turns out to be true, there should be at least a modest
light rainfall event. In regards to thunderstorms with the passage
of this shortwave, they don`t seem likely, as there is a fairly
decent cap near 850mb Monday night and Tuesday as the shortwave
moves through the area; there just might be enough instability in
the south central Monday night (and very possibly Tuesday morning
too) to get break through the cap and produce a few rumbles at most
is what I`m thinking. Would not be surprised to see thunder chances
vanish completely if the cap remains and doesn`t weaken with
subsequent model runs.
Behind this shortwave, expect more ridging. Highs should be in the
70s Wednesday and Thursday, progressively warming each day as
another trough to the west brings WAA over the U.P. Wednesday night.
Low temps are looking to bottom out in the low 40s in the cool spots
in the interior west during the middle of next week as the ridge
remains. As an Alberta Clipper approaches us Thursday, the better
forcing associated with its cold front looks to be north of us.
Therefore, I would not expect much, if any, rainfall over the U.P.
Thursday. However, a shortwave associated with the troughing from
the Clipper system looks to move northeast across the U.P. Thursday
night and Friday, possibly bringing a widespread rainfall (rainfall
might start late Thursday afternoon in the west, but the better
chances are definitely looking to be Thursday night into Friday).
Model guidance differs on whether there will be thunderstorms or not
Thursday night and early Friday associated with the shortwave; felt
safe going with NBM and keeping the slight chances for Thursday
night (although I could see thunderstorms occurring in the east
Friday too).
Model guidance diverges significantly after the shortwave`s passage
Friday. The GFS holds onto rainfall across the area until the end of
the extended period; the Euro shows a weak ridge dominating until
the end of the period; the Canadian shows a weak ridge early Friday
evening giving way to a shortwave over the west late Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2021
VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 341 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2021
With high pres ridge building se, reaching the northern Great Lakes
on Sun, winds will be diminishing across Lake Superior. Some gusts
to 25kt are expected tonight from Isle Royale to around Whitefish
Pt. Otherwise, winds should be mostly under 20kt tonight and mostly
under 15kt on Sun. These lighter winds will linger into at least Mon
morning. Expect some increase in winds later Mon as the next low
pres trough approaches. That trough will cross Lake Superior on Tue.
SE to S wind gusts ahead of the trough may reach 25-30kt Mon
night/Tue, maybe locally higher, and that will depend on a potential
low pres wave that may develop on the trough and track ne across
Lake Superior. Winds will then diminish w to e into Wed as high pres
moves e to the Great Lakes. Southerly winds will then increase later
Wed night/Thu ahead of the next low pres trough that will reach Lake
Superior Thu evening. Would not be surprised to see 20-30kt gusts
develop ahead of the trough, especially across the e half of Lake
Superior.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1214 PM PDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.Synopsis...
Typical autumn conditions are expected into mid-next week with dry
and warm days, cool nights, and occasional gusty winds. Low pressure
may bring stronger winds and cooler temperatures late next week but
precipitation potential appears minimal.
&&
.Discussion...
Typical dry early autumn weather pattern for the region into mid-
next week with warm days and cool nights. We could see an uptick in
W/SW breezes Sunday as a weak short wave moves through, but nothing
more than 20-25 MPH for most areas and 30 MPH in wind prone spots.
Minimal smoke concerns into Monday based on latest fire activity and
HRRR Smoke model.
Honestly the most interesting part of the forecast is late next week
into the weekend of 9/18-19. Ensemble guidance pointing toward
development of a trough, possibly significant and cold, along the
west coast. This is likely to bring strengthening breezes starting
next Friday based on NBM and ECMWF EPS, along with much cooler
temperatures. A non-trivial number of models in the NBM have highs
for RNO only in the 60s on 9/19, for example. Precipitation
potential with this trough pattern seems low right now. Dry airmass
looks to remain in place and most of the Pacific moisture tracking
well north over the Pac NW per atmospheric river landfall charts.
-Chris
&&
.AVIATION...
A quiet weather pattern is expected for the remainder of the
weekend into early next week. Expect VFR conditions at Nevada
and Sierra terminals. Smoke impacts are largely confined downwind
of the Dixie Fire into southern Oregon with limited smoke coming
off the Caldor Fire at this time. Otherwise areas of valley fog
will be possible through the Martis Valley with patchy fog
potentially impacting visibility at KTRK pre-dawn on Sunday.
Expect typical afternoon gusts across all terminals around 20kt
Sunday afternoon. Fuentes
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
...00Z Aviation Forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Temperatures have underperformed model guidance today, likely due
to the smoke aloft. HRRR indicates that the smoke will persist (if
not increase some) on Sunday, so temperatures may need to be
scaled back some. Even without any adjustments, Sunday highs in
the low to mid 90s do not lead to excessive heat concerns due to
limited moisture preventing heat index values from rising more
than a degree or two above ambient temperatures. Guidance does
not suggest ground level smoke concentrations substantial enough
to reduce visibilities at all.
No rain forecast through Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
Continued warm on Monday, then a little cooler Tuesday as the
upper ridge over the area flattens and shortwave energy begins to
impact the region.
Chances for showers and storms return late Tuesday due to
shortwave energy and an approaching front. Guidance varies on the
progression of the front, with solutions for the front to stall
north of the area, push quickly through the area, or stall
overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday. While there is considerable
uncertainty, this period will bring the highest chances for rain
through the forecast period. At this time, no severe weather is
anticipated.
Off and on low end chances for rain exist in the forecast late in
the week as weak shortwave energy may impact portions of the
region. Temperatures look closer to normal for late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021
As an upper level ridge situates itself over the region, dry and
calm weather will continue through the TAF period. VFR conditions
can be expected for all TAF sites through the TAF period. Looking
into tonight and early Sunday morning, low level wind shear can
be expected at KSGF and KJLN during the 06Z-13Z time frame. Wind
gusts of 20-25 knots out of the south-southwest will be present
Sunday afternoon at KSGF and KJLN.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield/Langfeld