Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/05/21

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&& .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature over the area tonight through the day Sunday. Clear skies and light winds will be the rule overnight, with a few clouds and northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. The high begins to get pushed eastward Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. Overall, dry conditions are expected through the short term period. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s east to the lower 80s west on Sunday. Lows Sunday night will again be in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The period begins on Monday with an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundaries crossing the region. 850 mb temps may warm into the mid 20C, which combined with mostly favorable mixing winds should produce highs in the 80s to the mid 90s. A cold front should sweep across the region Monday night, bringing gusty northerly winds and a low potential for pcpn. Northwesterly flow aloft, along an a surface high pressure will bring dry conditions, with near seasonal temperatures midweek, with highs in the 70s. Ridging aloft should slowly build into the region at the end of the work week with temps warming above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Vicinity thunder mention has been introduced in the KPIR TAF late tonight when an area of low pressure moves south across the region, and a low level jet develops later after midnight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 After late last night and early this morning`s widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, subsidence behind the front set in and cleared things out quite nicely after some lingering morning low cloud. The north-northeast wind prevailed much of the day, but direct insolation this afternoon was enough to catapult temperatures into the lower 80s, despite the "cooler" low level airmass behind the front. Remnant low level moisture was holding tough with most areas seeing dewpoints still in the lower 60s behind the front. A lot of evapotranspiration was undoubtedly contributing to the surface dewpoint temperature. For tonight, as high pressure at the surface settles in, winds will become very light and likely dead calm for at least a couple hours, especially along/east of the U283 corridor closer to the center of high pressure. This should allow for ideal radiational cooling with the only wrench in the radiational cooling maximization will be some mid/high cloud coming in from the west-southwest, although any mid/high cloud will probably be fleeting and scattered in nature such that it should have negligible impact on radiational cooling. This is important because ideal radiational cooling with a mostly clear sky tonight will likely result in at least patchy ground fog. Several of the high-res models are bringing visibility down to one- quarter mile east of U283, such as the 12km NAM, 4km Nested NAM, the RAP, and some of the latest hourly HRRR runs. It is enough of a signal to include patchy fog in the grids, and the following shift(s) will need to follow up on this component of the forecast as far as how widespread any potential dense fog may get, should it develop. Much of the forecast area saw an inch or more of rain, so the wet ground and all the evaporation that occurred today should favor fog by daybreak tomorrow. Speaking of tomorrow, as the surface pushes east, winds will become southerly again by afternoon. These southerly winds will converge with a light north-northwesterly wind across far west central and/or northwest Kansas by afternoon. The boundary layer convergence should be enough to support at least an isolated if not widely scattered thunderstorms. We have updated the forecast with 15-20 POPs for late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm potential across mainly far west central Kansas counties (generally west of a Ulysses to Garden City to Hays line. One or two of these storms, should they develop, could be fairly strong but severe weather is not anticipated given fairly low mixed layer CAPE forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Going into the upcoming workweek, sensible weather across the southwest Kansas region will be rather quiet. The classic summer subtropical high will build back in across the West early in the week, which will then ooze its way east closer to western Kansas by mid to late week. This will result in a gradual warming trend to the point that we will likely see mid to perhaps upper 90s for highs again by the end of this week. The global models diverge by workweek`s end with the ECMWF showing a front coming down late Friday night or Saturday. The Canadian GDPS model doesn`t show this front at all but the GFS shows said front coming down later in the weekend. Regardless, the chances for any future precipitation look next to none until at least Friday Night/Saturday of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF cycle, outside of any fog development early Sunday morning. VFR/SKC is expected along with very light/variable to calm winds tonight as a weak 1017 mb surface high settles into Kansas. Ideal radiational cooling and recent rainfall/wet vegetation is expected to lead to at least areas of radiation ground fog early Sunday. Have low confidence of the fog`s direct impacts at any specific airport, as such opted to only carry VCFG after 06-09z Sun. The fog may be more widespread/dense than this, and will be monitored closely. Light and variable winds will trend light south by Sunday afternoon with continued VFR and scattered cumulus by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 59 84 60 90 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 58 84 58 90 / 10 20 20 0 EHA 60 86 60 92 / 10 10 10 0 LBL 60 85 59 92 / 10 10 10 0 HYS 58 82 60 90 / 10 20 20 0 P28 61 83 60 91 / 10 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
749 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 - Front brings showers this evening then clearing - Secondary cold front brings showers Sunday evening - Pleasant Labor Day - Strong cold front with storms Tuesday then cooler - Warming up by the weekend && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 - Front brings showers this evening then clearing The passage of an occluded front, who`s triple point tracks across central Lower Michigan this evening will bring a period of showers to our area. There is a fair amount of upper diffluence over our area this evening as the jet core races east, just north of Route 20 this evening. With this is a narrow surge of warm moist air just ahead of the cold front part of the system. The combination of the moisture and lift from the frontal dynamics will result in showers to give us a few showers. The lack of instability will keep these showers and not thunderstorms. Whatever showers do happen, they will be in the late afternoon into early evening. Once the front comes through the showers should come to an end. Later tonight the typical surge of dry air, warm air following the occluded frontal passage. That will clear the skies toward morning and cause it to be sort of breezy. There is not much cool air behind this first front. - Secondary cold front brings showers Sunday evening There is a trailing cold front behind the northern part of this system in central Canada. That front does make it southwest Lower Michigan Sunday evening. Since there is a digging northern stream jet core as this is happening, that creates enough dynamics for convection with the passage of the front. The 15z RAP model shows around 2500 j/kg of MU cape near MKG when the front comes through around 8 pm Sunday evening. There is also an 25 to 30 knot low level jet aimed the Holland/Muskegon area during the late afternoon and evening. So, do expect some scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening. Once that comes through, expect clearing once again. It will be somewhat breezy too due to the cooler air moving in. - Pleasant Labor Day With our progressive upper wave pattern the cold air does not last to long. The next upstream system will push a shortwave ridge at us for Labor Day. That will bring milder temperatures into the area by afternoon. It will also result in sunny skies by early to mid afternoon with light winds. Monday night should be mostly clear and cool with light winds. - Strong cold front with storms Tuesday then cooler The next system, another Pacific system that closed off at mid and upper levels, has a northern stream jet strongly digging down the west side of the system as it moves through our area on Tuesday. This sets up strong dynamics with good surface convergence and decent instability (1500 j/kg of mix layer cape). Going along with the digging jet we have 40 to 60 knots of deep layer shear and the front is coming through during max heating. The warm surge ahead of the front will bring temperatures near and south of I-96, inland of Lake Michigan into the mid 80s Tuesday. Given all of the above I would expect a line of strong thunderstorms to race across the area during the mid to late afternoon. A few storms could be severe, straight line wind seem to be the primary mode for these storms. As a little aside, this may be the only meaningful rain this area will have for over a week. I do believe most of our CWA should see at least .10 inches from this event. Wednesday into Thursday the polar jet will be south of Michigan. We could see some lake effect rain showers Wednesday being the we are still in the deep cold air and there is the typical shallow moisture to create the rain showers too. . - Warming up by the weekend This cold event will be booted out by the next Pacific system by Friday. However this time the Pacific system does not dig south like the one this weekend has or the one forecast for Tuesday will. That will mean serious warming by next weekend. The MJO going into phase 4 that following means at least a week of very summer like weather for the 3rd week of September. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The main periods of impact in this set of forecasts will be the first six hours with showers and lower conditions coming through, and then maybe some fog at the eastern sites late tonight as the clouds and rain clear out. The precipitation is expanding in coverage over the sites this evening, although it is generally light showers to almost a drizzle. It is bringing visibilities and ceilings down to near IFR at times. Will play it low MVFR at this time, but IFR can not be ruled out. This will all clear out from west to east after 02z until about 06z or so toward KJXN. Some fog looks to be possible with the clearing skies, especially KLAN and KJXN where it rains a little longer into the night. Skies will be VFR and mostly sunny for most of the day on Sunday. Winds will become a bit gusty toward afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots expected from the W/NW. Some clouds and even precipitation will try to come in toward 00z Mon. This looks to be mostly after 00z, so will exclude for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 We are seeing small craft conditions expanding over our Near Shore as I write this. Overall the cold air (marginal cold) will yet be enough to keep the wind and waves going into Sunday morning. There will be somewhat of decrease in the wind and waves by early afternoon but the secondary cold front does have real cold air with it. So winds will kick up as that comes through. So we will keep our marine headlines as it into Monday. Do expect another marine headline event with thee Tuesday system. Given that we stay in the cold air through Thursday, that marine headline event will likely last longer than the current event will. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday morning for MIZ064-071. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for MIZ037-043- 050-056. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ846>849. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844-845. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1015 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Sfc cold front is currently located across SE Missouri and SW Illinois, evident on regional radar by a line of robust convection. In our neck of the woods, we`re mostly in a lull of precip at the moment. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP and wx grids through 12z, mainly relying on the 00z HRRR since it appears to be handling current trends the best. A tight gradient of PWATs still exist across our CWA, with our SE around 1.3", and our NW around 2". Highest PWATs of 2-2.1" are within the greatest 925-850mb moisture transport axis along the aforementioned frontal boundary. As the night progresses, higher PWAT airmass will sink southward into our region as the frontal boundary slowly approaches. Better coverage of precip will arrive in our NW CWA by 03-04z, and across much of the I-64 corridor by 06z. Heaviest precip will likely remain across much of the I-64 corridor through the overnight period. It`s possible our far southern counties remain dry until tomorrow around 12z as the front somewhat gets held up along the Ohio River overnight. Saturated sounding profiles with PWATs possibly even reaching 2.2" overnight suggest we`ll see some efficient rainers, again with the highest QPF near the I-64 corridor. There is little to no CAPE on mesoanalysis, so not expecting much thunder other than a few isolated embedded rumbles. Updated QPF grids with 00z WPC guidance, which has the 06-12z timeframe with the highest rainfall amounts, mainly ranging from 0.5-1.0" between the Pkwys and I-64. Could have some locally higher amounts, but overall concern for flooding issues is low considering that the OHRFC 6-hr FFG is around 3 inches. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Upper level trough swinging into the Upper Midwest this afternoon will continue to dig SE into the Upper Great Lakes region Sunday as a potent vort max rotates around the base of the trough. At the surface, an associated cold front currently draped across the mid MS Valley and extending SW into the southern Plains will push southeast towards the area. Current radar imagery shows area of showers that has been slowly progressing across southern IL this morning and now into southwestern IN this afternoon is finally reaching Dubois county. However, with model soundings indicating a decent layer of dry air below 850 mb, not confident much precip will be able to reach the ground to start. As higher PWATs are just starting to push in from the west, SPC Mesoanalysis reveals a sharp moisture gradient over the area currently, with PWATs ranging from around an inch over the Lake Cumberland area to nearly two inches over SW IN. As we move into the evening hours, expect deeper moisture to advect across southern IN and northern KY ahead of the frontal boundary beneath a 25-30 kt 850 mb jet. This will result in light to moderate showers being possible through the evening and into tonight over this area, with coverage continuing to fall apart the further east it progresses. With little to no instability, don`t expect more than an occasional rumble of thunder embedded within the showers. Better chances of precipitation will come later tonight and into Sunday as the cold front drops southeastward through the area. Expect PoPs to ramp up over southern IN around Midnight EDT then progressing towards the Ohio River by sunrise and continuing across the Commonwealth through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Overall rainfall totals are expected to remain below an inch, although locally higher amounts will be possible. Under cloudy skies tonight, low temperatures are progged to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Afternoon highs on Sunday will then be a bit dependent on how quickly the rain moves through the area. Southern IN may be able to reach 80 degrees tomorrow if clouds can clear quick enough in the wake of the front, while locations in our far east will likely remain in the lower to mid 70s as rain and clouds hang on longer into the afternoon. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 =================================== Synoptic Overview =================================== An amplified, yet progressive upper level pattern is forecast for the upcoming long term period. The pattern will start out in a trough east, ridge west type pattern. Long wave trough axis is forecast to remain over the eastern US through much of the week. A few smaller short wave troughs will move through the mean trough. Toward the end of the later half of the week, this long wave trough axis will pull out to the northeast and heights are expected to rise across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley as the western US ridge pushes east. =================================== Model Discussion/Trends/Preferences =================================== Overall model runs continue to show a decent amount of clustering and good continuity through the period. The models have good agreement with a trough axis swinging through the region around late Tuesday and Wednesday that could bring some light showers to portions of the area. Around this time, there is a bit of uncertainty about another round of tropical development across the Gulf. Overall, it still looks uncertain if anything organized will get going, but there is a strong signal for decent moisture transport into the Gulf coast states that could work as far north as the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. Overall, a blend of the GFS/Euro and the regular blend looks decent for a forecast basis in this cycle. =================================== Sensible Weather Impacts =================================== At the beginning of the period, surface cold front should be working its way across the state with some shower activity ending from east to west tomorrow night. The upper trough will lag behind slightly, but drier weather looks likely for Monday and Tuesday. The next short wave trough axis looks to move through around mid-week, though the quality and quantity of moisture looks rather meager with this system. In general, some light rain showers seem possible as this feature moves through the region. After that feature passes, continued dry weather looks very likely for Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures through the period will start off slightly above early September normals with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The mid-week cool front and upper trough passage will bring another round of cooler and drier air to the region for the latter half of the week. Highs Wednesday look to top out mainly in the upper 70s, though some lower 80s are possible south of the Parkways in Kentucky. Tranquil weather looks likely for Thursday and Friday with daytime highs mainly in the upper 70s, with a few lower 80s possible down across southern KY. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 50s, though if winds slacken off enough, a few upper 40s in the typical cooler spots can not be ruled out for Friday morning. A moderation of temperatures is expected by the weekend as temps warm back into the lower-middle 80s. =================================== Sunday and into Week Two =================================== As mentioned in the models section above, there remains some uncertainty about possible tropical development in the Gulf just prior to this period. Majority of model solutions keep the remnants of this system to our south and east as the mid-level ridge out west pushes further east. Some of the longer range global solutions show this ridge pushing eastward into the Ohio Valley in the middle of week two. The net result now is we could be seeing a period of more dry weather with a continued moderation of temperatures. Another run of high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly the lower 90s will be possible as we move toward mid-month. =================================== Forecast Confidence =================================== Sun Night - Wed Night: Medium-high confidence on all elements Thursday through Sat : Medium confidence on all elements Week Two : Low to medium confidence && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Light showers are mainly along the I-64 corridor this evening well ahead of the sfc cold front. As the front drops southward into the region, ceilings will lower to IFR as -RA blankets the region, starting at HNB and eventually arriving at BWG/LEX later in the morning. After a few hours of lowered ceilings, flight cats should improve to MVFR by the early to mid afternoon. HNB may even return to VFR by the end of this TAF period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...CJP Short Term...JML Long Term...MJ Aviation...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
811 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 .UPDATE... There has been a definite decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity. In large part this is due to a weak cold front supported by outflow having pushed southward into the northern Permian Basin and southern Rolling Plains diminishing forcing and instability behind the boundary. Could see an uptick in coverage late tonight with increasing low level flow over the shallow boundary in line with WRF-NAM and RAP version of things. As a result will lower PoPs for tonight areawide but keep them in the chance category to cover both current and short term coverage and the potential for redevelopment later tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021/ AVIATION... VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Precipitation this evening has been less than expected, which decreases the chances for low stratus ceilings early Sunday morning. There will be chances for more showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of all three terminals after sunrise tomorrow, that persist into the afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021/ SHORT TERM... Good rain/storm chances, including a risk for locally excessive rainfall, and cooler temperatures are the themes in the short term. A cold front, lingering low-level boundaries, plenty of moisture, a weakness aloft and strong daytime heating will all work together to provide good storm chances this afternoon and evening. In fact, we have already seen widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop as of 19Z, favoring the southeast Texas Panhandle into the western South Plains, with new development in the Rolling Plains too. We did have a convergent boundary sag into the northern South Plains this morning, which has become ill-defined. However, a secondary surge to the cold front is currently moving into the southern Texas Panhandle and it will make its way through the CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Convergence along the front will serve as a focus for additional storm development. The environment is characterized by 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, similar values of DCAPE, PWATs of 1.3 to 1.5+ inches and relatively weak flow and mid-level lapse rates. These conditions will support the occasional robust updraft and downdraft, capable of producing strong to marginally severe downburst winds, though relatively disorganized cells overall. The slow storm motions and rich moisture will lead to locally heavy downpours that could create excessive rainfall in a few spots. Overall convective coverage/intensity may wane a bit late this evening, but there are decent signals that a 20-30 knot southerly LLJ, weak mid-level disturbance pivoting out of New Mexico and right entrance region of a strong upper jet over the Great Plains may be sufficient to renew/expand rain/storm coverage late tonight into Sunday morning. Confidence in these details is low, but if it does occur, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Depending on how things play out through Sunday morning will dictate storm chances Sunday afternoon. At this point it appears the southern zones may be most favored for additional convective development (closest to the frontal zone), but this could change. Regardless, plenty of cloud cover (maybe even a little AM fog) will secure a cooler day Sunday after a mild night tonight. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 60s, while highs Sunday will only reach the upper 70s to middle 80s at most locations. LONG TERM... By Monday morning the majority of the precipitation associated with the cold front will be south of our region. The remainder of the long term forecast will be dominated by an area of expanding high pressure across the southern Great Basin early in the week which will gradually shift towards the forecast area through the week. This will lead to gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions across the region. A shortwave will dive across the upper Midwest on Tuesday which will send another surface cold front into our region late Tuesday or early Wednesday. However, this front will be dry and only lead to a slight cool down for temperatures on Wednesday. By late next week the upper level high will be centered over the forecast area leading to the hottest temperatures of the long term forecast. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 55/07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
841 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 For this evening, made some adjustments in the PoP/Weather forecast closer to the HRRR CAM guidance, which seems to be modeling the current convective trends well. Some minor adjustments to precipitation amounts, but still within the spirit of the day shift forecast crew. Increase PoP coverage to account for more widespread, albeit weak larger scale lift along the frontal zone. Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted slightly toward NBM model guidance this evening and overnight. Threat for severe storms (wind concerns) has diminished markedly. Latest SPC Outlook has dropped severe potential back to general (non-severe) thunderstorms with their 01z Sunday update. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Primary challenge in the short term resides with heavy rain potential along with a marginal threat for severe storms. As a cold front slowly sinks southward across the Quad State, rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast this evening through the night. As of 2 PM, convection has started to develop across south central Missouri. This activity is expected to increase in coverage and spread into our southeast Missouri counties late this afternoon and early evening. Instability of 1000+ J/kg, combined with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km effective bulk shear, will support a strong storm or two. The primary hazard would likely be damaging winds. Primary window for a few strong to severe storms would likely reside in the 21-01z time window. Precipitable water values are anomalously high, in the 2-2.4 inch range. So if any training convection occurs, amounts in the 2-3+ inch range could be realized in a few areas. With waning instability after sunset, the overall lightning threat appears low though so tend to think the rates won`t be too excessive overnight. With high moisture levels in place, overnight lows will be warmer than recent nights, in the upper 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 We will still be dealing with lingering convection on Sunday, as the cold front will be situated across the middle to southern parts of the CWA by 12Z. On Sunday morning, the best chances for rain will be across far southeastern parts of Missouri, far southern Illinois and into western Kentucky. This area of rain will slowly shift southeast with time during the day as high pressure builds in. So by Sunday afternoon, rain chances should just be confined to parts of western Kentucky with the entire area rain free by sunset or so. Clouds and rain will help tamper down temperatures, to where highs should settle around 80 degrees, give or take a degree or so. High pressure will be in place Sunday night and into Labor Day and Monday night, resulting in really nice weather to end the holiday weekend. However, temperatures will be about five degrees warmer on Labor Day with highs in the middle 80s just about everywhere. This area of high pressure will start shifting out of the area Monday night and into Tuesday, as another cold front will be making its way southeast into the Upper Midwestern states. This front will move southeast into the area Tuesday night and bring a very small chance of rain with it. Moisture will be lacking, so not expecting much, if any, measurable precipitation right now. Best chances appears to be confined to the interstate 64 corridor. By Wednesday, high pressure will build back into the area, which will mean dry weather is forecast. Actually, this dry weather looks to stay in place for the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. While it will be rather warm on Tuesday ahead of the cold front, with highs back up into the upper 80s, cooler weather will return for Wednesday as highs drop back down into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much drier air will also filter into the area, with dew points into the 50s which will feel very comfortable. By Saturday, we will develop a southerly wind yet again which will help boost temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 841 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Amended the 00z Sunday WFO PAH TAFs for the timing and coverage of the convection associated with the frontal passage. This is reflected in a slightly faster reduction of ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR and IFR category overnight during and following the frontal passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM...CLW AVIATION...Smith