Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/16/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
843 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Quiet night across the forecast area. Main feature is the amount of smoke expected to move into the forecast area, especially west river, overnight and tomorrow. Made a few minor changes to the winds, otherwise forecast in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A trough is moving southeast through North Dakota this afternoon. So far, the boundary passage has been dry. CAMs solutions are keeping this forecast area dry this evening. However, chances are likely non- zero on showers or thunderstorms due to a llj east of the James valley. Kept a precip mention out of the grids for now, but may need to be added in if convection manages to bust the cap as the trough stalls this evening. As the trough settles into central SD, the airmass will be significantly drier. On Monday, the min RH is expected to fall below 20 percent but shouldn`t align with the breezy southerly winds that are forecast farther east. The south to southwest winds and llj will keep the downslope effect going along the Prairie Coteau both tonight and Monday night. Temperatures will continue to warm under the upper ridge. However, the HRRR smoke product shows the thicker smoke that is over Montana today making its way into central SD behind the trough on Monday. Along with some reduction in visibility, the smoke may inhibit highs by 2 to 5 degrees holding temperatures below the 100 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The long term period begins with a couple of warm, but breezy days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday could reach the 90s, to the lower 100s along and west of the Missouri River. These readings would be 10 to nearly 20 degrees above average for this time of year. A deep upper level trough and surface frontal boundary may begin crossing the region as early as Wednesday night-Thursday morning as the GFS suggests, or Thursday night into Friday as the ECMWF and Canadian indicates. Slight differences among deterministic and ensembles causes a broad brush of pops Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday. Higher NBM pops is mostly confined to Thursday night into Friday. Much cooler temperatures should move into the region over the weekend, with highs 70s, to the low 80s. Depending on model used, additional storms could be possible over the weekend as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail overnight. Smoke will increase in coverage overnight with visibilities possibly falling to 3 miles at KMBG and KPIR Monday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Scarlett SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Scarlett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The 00 UTC sounding at Bismarck showed enough of a cap between 600 and 500 mb to inhibit any thunderstorm development this evening. Expect a warm and mostly clear but hazy/smoky overnight period tonight. Smoke increases west to central on Monday both at the surface and aloft. Adjusted smoke a bit based on latest model forecasts and bumped it to areas of smoke instead of patchy. Otherwise no changes from the previous forecast. UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low along the International Border, north of Minot, with a surface trough/dry line extending south into south central ND. Current temperatures are mainly in the upper 90s to around 103. Heat indices are in the 100-105 range within the Heat Advisory. Will let this continue through 7 PM as advertised. There remains a small chance of thunderstorms, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor, within an area of strong instability with MLCapes of around 2500-3500 J/KG and effective shear around 30 knots. Cumulus field over central ND has shown little in the way of agitation, which is reasonable given the lack of an shortwave and the warm air in place. a few small towers have developed and quickly dissipated. If There we could get a sustained updraft a cell could become quickly strong to severe given the instability. The most likely location would appear to be around the Devils Lake Basin into the northern James River Valley, within an area of greatest instability and some weak surface moisture convergence. Will keep a slight chance of storms through the early evening. Otherwise no changes from the going forecast. Updated text products will be sent shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 There are multiple forecast concerns over the short term. For the rest of this afternoon and into the evening, a heat advisory will be in effect as a combination of moist, southerly flow and stronger ridging will lead to heat index values up to 105. Later this afternoon, there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms across portions of south central into eastern North Dakota. Confidence remains low as there is no obvious source of lift, however storms were able to form under similar conditions yesterday. Severe weather is not expected, but the strongest storms will be capable of small hail and gusty winds given plenty of CAPE and marginal effective shear values. Meanwhile, smoke is expected to gradually filter into the area from the west this afternoon, mainly effecting far western North Dakota this afternoon and southwestern North Dakota overnight. The HRRR smoke model is continuing to indicate another plume of smoke pushing into much of western and central North Dakota late tomorrow morning and early afternoon, so we will continue to monitor. As of now, only patchy smoke is being mentioned in the forecast for tomorrow with areas of smoke across the west this afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will exist across western and portions of central North Dakota due to the presence of slightly stronger downsloping westerly winds. Otherwise, continued hot and dry conditions on Monday with at least a couple sites likely breaking record highs. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the first part of the long term, with cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation likely for the back half of the week. The progression of the trough expected to enter the Pacific Northwest early this week has continued to slow a bit amongst guidance, with the ECMWF even forming a stationary cut off low near the Great Basin. However, consensus is for the trough to eventually reach the Northern Plains around mid week. Until then, we can expect continuing near record high temperatures and dry conditions. The high temperatures on Wednesday will be highly dependent on the timing of the trough and associated cold front, with a late arrival resulting in another hot day for most. Precipitation chances then increase Wednesday night into Thursday and linger into the weekend. Highs beyond Wednesday are likely to be seasonably cool in the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 912 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Smoke will reduce visibilities west tonight and may spread into central ND late tonight or Monday. MVFR visibilities in smoke have developed at KXWA and KDIK. Hard to tell how much lower vsbys will go or how long the lower vsbys will last but based on smoke fcst, will keep a reduction in smoke through Monday morning. For now will keep it in the 3-5SM range and adjust as needed. VFR ceilings are expected through the 00Z forecast period with only some high thin clouds. However, there could be some artificial ceilings indicated due to the smoke. A south to southwest surface flow will remain over the area but turn more westerly at KXWA, KDIK and KMOT Monday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...Gale LONG TERM...Gale AVIATION...TWH
National Weather Service Eureka CA
215 PM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Westerly winds will gradually reduce smoke across most of the area through Monday. Temperatures will slowly return to more seasonal levels during the first half of the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...An approaching upper-level shortwave trough has helped to shift the thickest smoke to the east today, and the HRRR smoke model continues this trend into Monday. Bluer skies are possible along the coast by sunset today, with an even better chance of a blue sky for sunrise on Monday (outside of any areas of coastal clouds and fog). Smoke is expected to linger across Trinity County closer to the source fires, but even these areas should see air quality improvements upwind of the fires. The upper shortwave is expected to push east of the area by Tuesday, with a large scale trough continuing to dig over the western U.S. through mid-week. As a result, interior temperatures are expected to return to near seasonal normals through Thursday. Another interior warm-up will likely accompany building high pressure the latter portion of next week. Winds are forecast to shift offshore starting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty north to northeast winds will be possible on Wednesday, which would bring smoke from all the active wildfires back toward the coast. The combination of these gusty winds and drier air filtering in may lead to increased fire weather concerns across portions of the interior (see fire weather section below). In addition, coastal temperatures may also be on the increase during this timeframe, but the westward propagation of smoke may help negate the coastal warm up. /SEC && .AVIATION...Conditions at coastal terminals have been sporadic LIFR to MVFR today as weak gyres slide down the coast causing waves of fog and stratus. Expect alternating VFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS this afternoon. This evening as the marine layer redevelops into the coast expect the LIFR CIGS and VSBY to return for the night. Smoke should steadily improve over the interior today and Monday as increased afternoon westerly winds advect it eastward...however a brief period of MVFR haze is possible again on Monday morning at KUKI. /MKN && .MARINE...Winds will continue to increase tonight south of Cape Mendocino, then quickly increase on Monday and Tuesday over all zones. Northerlies are expected to top out as Gales around midday on Tuesday over the outer waters. Have issued a SCA for PZZ470 ahead of the possible Gale and a Gale watch for the outer water for Tuesday into Wednesday. Steep, short-period seas will build in response to the increasing winds. These steep seas may propagate into the inner zones, necessitating some hazardous seas products. Stay tuned! Winds will start to slowly weaken by Wednesday afternoon, but will remain elevated over portions of the outer waters the back half of the work week. Otherwise, a mid-period northwest swell will continue to diminish as a longer-period south to southwest swell lingers. /MKN && .FIRE WEATHER...Thick smoke, both at the surface and aloft, will continue to shift east this afternoon and tonight as a shortwave trough approaches the area. Otherwise, RH recoveries will remain rather poor today into early next week outside of valleys and lower slopes. Stronger diurnal westerlies in the wind channeled gaps and valleys in the interior will develop this afternoon and Monday as the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough moves toward and eventually across the area. These winds may drive a brief period of local red-flag conditions this afternoon across the southern portion of the area. However their duration doesn`t support a warning at this time, so will continue headlines for 276, 277, and 264. Current HRRR smoke guidance is indicating that most areas outside of E Trinity County will be scoured of smoke by these winds this evening through Monday. Stronger NE-E ridge level winds and poor overnight RH recoveries will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as a larger trough digs to our east and high pressure builds over the Great Basin by the middle of the coming week. Will headline this possibility as well in the upcoming FWF issuance for the SE fire wx zones. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM this evening for CAZ110-111-113>115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for PZZ470-475. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 PM Tuesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM Tuesday for PZZ475. $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
848 PM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .DISCUSSION... ...High fire danger and hot temperatures will remain a concern into Monday for NE Montana... 845PM UPDATE: Most things remained relatively untouched. The main interest was Smoke, Haze, and Visibility observations that showed that pockets of "Clearer" air exist with almost 10 miles vis. Attempted to capture these pockets with the GLAMP/NBM as a base and then rebuilt the weather grid`s haze/smoke qualities from there. GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: Some tweaks were made to temperature, humidity and smoke grids, coincident with the main concerns through Monday. A Heat Advisory was deemed necessary as the hot temperatures south of the Missouri River will be potentially hazardous in the afternoon. Air quality will remain a concern as well, with the wildfire smoke reducing visibility to between 3SM-5SM across much of the region. Rain is still expected around mid-week, but confidence is not yet high as the accumulation potential continues to fluctuate with each forecast iteration. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue into Monday as a western U.S. upper ridge continues to extend influence into the Northern High Plains. Low afternoon humidity today and Monday with little recovery tonight, combined with breezy conditions at times will lead to high fire danger. The strongest winds are still expected on Monday as a cold front approaches. Isolated thunder is also possible in the west Monday evening. HRRR guidance continues to suggest that haze and smoke may become more problematic today in the context of both visibility and air quality. High temperatures today and Monday will reach the mid 90s to low 100s for most places in NE Montana. In addition, temperatures may only fall off to around 70 in southwest portions of the CWA and near Fort Peck Lake tonight by Monday morning. The bottom line here is that by Monday there may begin to be some cumulative effects from the heat, even where summer in general has been warmer than average to begin with. There is some uncertainty on how smoke will affect temperatures today, so Monday may be the larger impact day, especially if it becomes the third straight day with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. A targeted heat advisory may be appropriate by Monday, depending on how things shape up, but will continue to hold off for now. Lastly, breezy conditions may rise to the level of Lake Wind Advisory criteria in and around the Fort Peck Lake area by Monday afternoon and evening. West winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph are possible. Again, there is still time for further consideration on these ideas. An upper trough pattern looks to set up for the middle of the week with cooler and more unsettled conditions appearing more probable. At this time, ensembles are beginning to suggest a soaking rain for portions of NE Montana on Tuesday night into Wednesday, before things trend back toward the hit or miss variety for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0245Z FLIGHT CAT: MVFR-VFR DISCUSSION: Smoke from western wildfires will continue to hamper visibility across the region through Monday, though there will potentially be a brief respite from MVFR visibility this evening and overnight, before the more dense smoke is expected to move back into the region mid-Monday. Clouds should remain minimal and above VFR levels if any do happen to pass over an airfield. WIND: Light and variable overnight. Then, west to northwest at 10-20 kts on Monday. Becoming light and variable again late Monday evening. Cliff/GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for MTZ120-122-134>137. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for Dawson... Garfield...McCone...Petroleum...Prairie...Richland...Wibaux. && $$
mid-week. More on this in the extended forecast discussion below.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The next trough begins to take shape over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday with southwest flow across the forecast area. This will favor above normal temperatures, gusty southwest wind across the south, and the best chance for showers over the northwest mountains Tuesday. The trough makes slow progress to the southeast Wednesday as it becomes cut-off from the main branch of the northern stream jet. This slower motion has been preferred by the ECMWF and the latest GFS is more in-line with this solution. This will bring the trough and associated upper low to our western doorstep late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread during the afternoon aided by a south-north oriented jet streak across the west. This activity shifts slowly east Wednesday evening with areas east of the Continental Divide seeing the best chance for an extended wet period. Six-hour QPF of 0.10 to 0.25 inch advertised for most of the forecast area from 18Z/Wednesday to 06Z/Thursday. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals Wednesday, particularly across the eastern zones. Northerly wind behind a Tuesday night cold front may keep northern zones 65 to 75F Wednesday. Have trended post-frontal winds upward in the northern Bighorn Basin and Johnson County Tuesday night and Wednesday, while also boosting pre-frontal westerly wind in the south. An upstream kicker arrives Thursday with some hint the trough may become negatively tilted as it tracks through the forecast area. Overrunning set-up with upslope flow east of the Divide and southerly flow spreading over the top. This will keep scattered to likely precipitation chances along and east of the Divide Thursday and Thursday evening. Thursday temperatures remain below normal with 65 to 75F for many locations. General troughiness lingers Friday along with the best chance for scattered showers and storms over the northern-third of the area. Temperatures remain cool Friday. Have boosted west-northwest winds both days across the southern tier of zones. The upper flow becomes more zonal Saturday and Sunday favoring showers along and west of the Divide. Temperatures rebound 5 to 8F each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 435 PM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Terminals will generally be VFR, although MVFR visibility due to wildfire smoke remains a possibility. Ongoing convection will be on the decrease in coverage and intensity between 00Z-03Z/Monday. Main hazard remains gusty outflow wind 35-45 kts. A mostly clear sky and dry conditions prevail overnight and Monday with wind speeds less than 12 kts at all terminals. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued AT 233 PM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Keeping with the RFD across southern Lincoln County for today with low RH, above normal temperatures, and breezy winds. Winds still look to be marginal enough to keep the RFD and not upgrade to a warning. Tomorrow, continuing with only marginal/RFD conditions as winds are not expected to increase enough ahead of the trough until Tuesday. Tuesday will see the best chances for the need for a watch/warning. Gusty winds associated with a trough and increasing pressure gradient combined with the continuing above normal temperatures and dry conditions, will definitely elevate the fire weather conditions to near critical levels Tuesday. Fairly widespread precipitation and cold front passage Tuesday night will increase RHs and decrease temperatures for the rest of the week, so despite gusty winds with the trough passage, fire weather conditions do not look to be much of a concern after Tuesday evening. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...CNJ AVIATION...CNJ FIRE WEATHER...Fisher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
149 PM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge, centered over northern California, will team up with a west bound trough over Mexico, to keep a brisk easterly flow aloft over Southern California through Monday. Monsoonal moisture embedded in that flow will bring periods of clouds and even a chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm at times. The best chance for any heavy rainfall will be near the mountains and over the high deserts. Occasional clouds and increasing low-level moisture will help to moderate daytime temperatures, except over the high deserts where excessive heat is expected through Monday. Later this week, a trough along the West Coast will bring a drier southwest flow aloft, and cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... -Forecast Highlights- * Monsoonal flow through Wednesday, but limited thunderstorms * Drier late this week while turning slightly cooler An upper ridge anchored over NorCal along with weak troughing over northwest Mexico will continue to lead to an easterly monsoonal flow pattern across the service area. However, there are some limiting factors for much convection -- overall subsidence from the strong ridge and fast mid level east-northeast winds. The wind flow will be gradually weakening through Tuesday, but by then we start losing the best moisture as some drying starts to move in from the north as an upper trough approaches from the north, replacing the ridge currently in place. Hi-res models show very limited activity. In fact, our local WRF is a blank slate through Tuesday. HRRR shows nothing through Monday night. However, models have struggled with the showers/isolated tstorms that have been moving west in the fast flow near the international border. So while showers or thunderstorms will be few and far between over the next few days, or may not occur at all, have kept a slight chance in the mountains through Wednesday, except even west of the mountains through far southern San Diego County through this evening. Will have to keep an eye to the east as any convection forming over Arizona or southeast California could move in on the faster easterly flow through Tuesday morning. However, all indications point to little if any activity moving in from the east. Rainfall amounts will be limited as well over the next couple days as any cells that develop will be on the move, so flash flooding is not expected. Most locales won`t receive any rain. Places that do are most likely to see less than a tenth of an inch with the heaviest likely no higher than a half an inch. One item worth mentioning is the HRRR shows smoke increasing aloft from the north through Tuesday, so the sky will become very hazy Monday-Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well. The good news is that this smoke will be mostly aloft, though near surface smoke does increase some over the high desert, but the mountains block this from moving further south. Drier air will move in mid-late week under the influence of the upper trough passing north of the region, so dry weather is expected confidently all areas by Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The marine layer will become slightly deeper with low clouds at night moving into the valleys late this week. Temperatures will cool from the hot inland conditions we are currently seeing. && .AVIATION... 152045Z...Coast/Valleys...Variable SCT-BKN clouds at/above 10000 ft MSL will continue through Mon with mostly unrestricted vis. Patchy stratus with bases 700-1100 ft MSL and tops to 1200 ft MSL will be possible near the coast 06Z-16Z Mon with local vis 2-4 miles in BR over higher coastal terrain. Mountains/Deserts...Variable SCT-BKN clouds at/above 10000 ft MSL will continue through Mon. There is a slight chance of TSRA over the mountains this afternoon and again Mon afternoon with bases 9000 ft MSL and tops to 40000 ft MSL and strong up/downdrafts this afternoon. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
220 PM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A strong area of high pressure moving down from northwest Nevada will lead to above normal temperatures through Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue over the mountains of southern Nevada and southeast California, with greater storm coverage over northwest Arizona through Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and a slow drying trend are expected to spread over the region after Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...through Wednesday. Satellite loops showed that convective cells initiating over the mountains of south central Nevada and southwest Utah were moving slowly toward the south-southwest under the clockwise flow of the 500 mb high centered over northwest Nevada. Latest runs of the HRRR and HREF do not indicate that any storms will make much progress into Clark County this evening, but always have to be open to the slight possibility that it could happen in this pattern. Even though dewpoints have been in the upper 50 to lower 60s over central Clark County, it is apparent that moisture is quite shallow looking at buildups over the Spring Mountains this afternoon and this is reflected by MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Higher moisture content over Mohave County was getting more surface heating today and could be a little more primed for thunderstorms moving in from the rim country late this afternoon and evening. The HRRR and HREF continue to indicated the possibility of storms, or at least outflow, making it across the area from Peach Springs to Kingman and Hualapai Mountain. Any thunderstorms should dissipate by late evening. The high to our northwest is forecast to be pushed over southern Nevada Monday afternoon by a large trough digging in from the Pacific Northwest. This should suppress convection a little more than today with a slight warming of temps aloft and northerly flow over northwest Arizona which will be less favorable for any storms to move in from the rim country. The northerly flow aloft will continue to spread smoke and haze farther southward and the latest HRRR smoke forecast shows it will be most prevalent over Inyo, western San Bernardino counties and south central Nevada. It looks like it should remain fairly diffuse over Clark County southward. Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday before the high breaks down and pushes off to the east and no changes are planned to the Excessive Heat Warning/Advisory in effect for areas west and north of the Las Vegas Valley. The incoming trough may briefly induce some low level southerly flow Tuesday which would bring some 925-850 moisture influx up across northwest Arizona. Chances for thunderstorms are confined primarily over Mohave and Lincoln counties. After that, it appears it will have a drying effect Wednesday onward with increasingly dry southwest to westerly flow aloft spreading over the region. Temperatures will also drop 4-8 degrees across the region from Tuesday to Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday. The ensemble means indicate that we will see a break in the monsoon pattern through the weekend and possibly beyond as dry westerly flow behind the trough spreads and holds over the region. Chances for thunderstorms will be confined to far northern Mohave and eastern Lincoln County Thursday then chances will continue to diminish to less than 10 percent going into the weekend and temperatures will remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring east or southeast directions are expected through early evening before trending more southerly by sundown. Just FEW-SCT clouds expected around 12kft with no thunderstorm activity expected in the Las Vegas Valley vicinity today or Monday, though some scattered cumulus build ups are likely over the high terrain. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Generally light winds favoring typical daily trends are expected for the regional TAF sites, with thunderstorm activity limited to northwest Arizona. Some smoke will reduce both surface and slantwise visibility across the Sierra and southern Great Basin, with visibility reduced to as low as 2 miles possible near KBIH through tomorrow night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair AVIATION...Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter