Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/12/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
909 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Increased sky cover for the smoke aloft and removed the haze. Rest
of forecast looked good.
UPDATE Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
00z aviation discussion updated below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Smoke over northeastern South Dakota and Western Minnesota does not
appear to be impacting temperatures much this afternoon as several
locations are near the forecast high. The smoke does not appear to
be reaching the surface either. Based on the HRRR vertically
integrated smoke, will added haze into the forecast through 18Z
Monday. A frontal boundary and upper level trough will cross the
region Monday afternoon into Monday night. While there should be
some instability and shear along the front, overall forcing is
lacking over this CWA. Based on the latest CAMS, have removed pops
along the Missouri River, but have maintained schc pops in the
northeast corner of the CWA. The confidence with convection
impacting this CWA is low at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
The extended opens hot and dry on Tuesday. However, that quickly
changes Tuesday night as a warm front sets up along the SD/NE border
Tuesday evening and shortwave energy aloft moves in to suppress the
upper ridge. The upper low will migrate east on Wednesday bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.
Greater instability will focus more on the sfc low and front to the
south and east.
Sfc high pressure builds down into the region Wednesday night
cutting off precip from northwest to southeast. The upper ridge
remains suppressed by shortwave energy the latter half of the week.
Therefore, can`t completely rule out some isolated showers even
though the next best chance for precip will hold off until Friday
night. The weekend looks mostly dry and warmer with sfc high
pressure dominating.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected at all airports through Monday. A cool
front will move into the region Monday afternoon bringing a wind
switch to the northwest at PIR and MBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Made some minor changes to pops out west late this evening.
High based showers have developed over eastern MT. Showers in NE
Montana should move into the far northwest near the Missouri River
around 11 PM MDT or 10 PM CDT. These showers have just popped up
ahead of a cold front. Earlier this evening strong thunderstorm
outflow was associated with a few thunderstorms near Havre east
to Glasgow. With an inverted V sounding noted at GGW, steep lapse
rates remaining along the State Line and high values of DCAPE,
any showers or thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds as
they move into western ND late this evening.
UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Made some minor tweaks to sky cover and pops tonight, otherwise no
significant changes to the forecast. Isolated thunderstorms over
southwest Saskatchewan to northeast of Great Falls. this activity
would not approach the forecast area until late in the evening or
after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
A positively tilted upper ridge axis sits over the Northern Plains
early this afternoon. At the surface, a broad expanse of high
pressure extends from the Central High Plains to the western Great
Lakes. This has allowed for a sunny and warm day across the region,
with just a few diurnally driven cumulus clouds near the Turtle
Mountains.
A shortwave trough will eject off the Northern Rockies by this
evening and track east along the Canadian border through Monday,
with a lee surface trough sharpening over far eastern Montana by
sunset. Strong Q-vector convergence, mid level DCVA, and low level
frontogenesis will likely provide enough forcing for scattered
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the trough as it moves
across the state from west to east tonight through Monday morning.
Despite modest deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates, a
lack of moisture will only yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. The likely
end result is high-based thundershowers that may produce some gusty
winds. Better chances for precipitation will lie across the north
where forcing is strongest.
By Monday afternoon, the shortwave is forecast to deamplify while
the surface trough lingers in eastern North Dakota. A handful of
CAMs are trying to develop afternoon showers and storms along the
surface trough, but other than some possible assistance from left
exit region jet dynamics, forcing appears non-existent. An increase
in CAPE to near 2000 J/kg is forecast, but weaker lapse rates and
shear should prevent any convection that is able to initiate from
becoming severe. The passage of the trough will lower temperatures
by a few degrees on Monday, with highs mainly in the 80s.
Periods of smoky and hazy conditions are expected through the short
term period due to wildfires across southern Canada and the western
CONUS. The greatest concentration of smoke this afternoon is located
over southeast North Dakota. Later this evening, a larger plume of
smoke will arrive from the west, as can be seen on afternoon
satellite imagery over south central Montana. Current observations
and HRRR simulations suggest that most of the smoke will be confined
to mid and upper levels.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Quiet weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
under the influence of surface high pressure centered over northern
parts of the region. A mid level shortwave is then forecast to cross
the Northern Plains Tuesday night through Wednesday. Models are very
consistent in developing a large complex of showers and
thunderstorms with this wave, focused over southern North Dakota and
much of South Dakota. Recent guidance has shifted QPF probabilities
slightly north from previous runs, but the ECMWF ensemble strongly
suggests that the northern half of the state will receive little to
no rain, with high confidence evident in the sharp gradient of its
QPF threshold probabilities. Instability and shear parameters do not
appear to support a severe threat with this activity.
The general trend for the second half of the week is for upper level
ridging to develop from the Southern Rockies to the Northern High
Plains, with a potential for periodic weak disturbances rounding the
top of the ridge. The main story with this pattern will be
temperatures rising to above, if not well above normal. Long-range
ensembles show fairly high confidence in anomalous warmth, and the
NBM 25th percentile daily highs are above average. While this
pattern is conducive to at least some potential for showers and
thunderstorms, predictability is very low at this time range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southerly
winds around 15 kts in western North Dakota early this evening
will shift to the northwest later tonight into Monday morning as
a frontal boundary moves through. Winds could become gusty with
the frontal passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may also
accompany the front, with better chances farther north than south.
A period of low-level wind shear concerns is likely across
central North Dakota late tonight and early Monday morning.
Skies will be hazy or smoky at times. Surface visibility is not
expected to fall below VFR criteria, but lower visibilities aloft
may be encountered.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
There are numerous hot spots on the 3.9 IR Satellite pictures
across most of the western United States this evening. The smoke
moving southward, down the front of the upper ridge, into Colorado
and our CWA is extensive. There looks to be even more smoke this
evening than there was last evening at this time. Will leave the
"areas of smoke" wording in the forecast. It was a tad warmer
today than yesterday; about 3 degrees F. Will adjust tonight`s
overnight lows accordingly with the smoke and current airmass in
mind. Very little to no cloudiness expected overnight. Weak drainage
winds should prevail in most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Upper level ridge off to the west will slowly shift east over the
next 24 hours. This will bring warmer temperatures for Monday.
Expect highs to be in the mid 90s over northeast Colorado. Will
need to monitor how much smoke from the western wildfires will
move overhead. Looking at satellite and the HRRR model, would
expect to see an increase tonight and Monday. This could shave few
degrees off the expected high for Monday. Precipitable water
values will increase to around a half inch over the higher
terrain. This combined with CAPE of up to 500 J/kg is expected to
produce isolated/scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon.
Very dry sub cloud base will result in gusty winds from the
showers and storms that form. The rainfall should mainly be light.
Storms will struggle to survive once they move off the higher
terrain, so will have slight chance PoPs for the Urban Corridor
and keep the plains dry.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Some isolated showers and storms producing mainly gusty winds
will persist into the evening Monday. On Tuesday, northeast
Colorado will see an increase in mid level moisture and vorticity
as another shortwave moves from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies. This will lead to increasing coverage of showers
and storms with better chances for precipitation.
Models show the best moisture in the period Tuesday through
Thursday with a general peak in precipitable water values on
Wednesday, up to around 1.0 to 1.2 inches over the lower
elevations and 0.5 to 0.8 inches over the high terrain. Expect
scattered showers and storms producing moderate precipitation each
afternoon and evening, and the most activity on Wednesday. A few
severe storms are possible and there is some decent bulk shear up
to around 40 knots in areas. Instability looks to be somewhat
limited but models are showing a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the
high terrain briefly in the afternoons, which should support a
few stronger storms initiating there. Forecast soundings show deep
mixing again Tuesday afternoon which may lead to more gusty
outflow winds, similar to Monday.
The wave will also bring some cooler air, though there is still
uncertainty regarding temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday
now looks more similar to Monday, maybe even slightly warmer, then
models are showing a weak cold front late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. Wednesday should be the coolest in the period, with
highs back down in the mid to upper 80s across the plains. A
gradual warming and drying trend should set right back in Thursday
and persist through the weekend as a large ridge builds over the
Rockies again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 816 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
I left the "FU" in the TAFS overnight and well into Monday based
on real data upstream. Tonight`s winds at DIA should be normal
drainage patterns with pretty weak speeds. There will be no
ceiling issues.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Isolated/scattered thunderstorms are expected over the mountains
and foothills. Most of this rain is expected to be light to
moderate. Flash flood threat for the burn areas will be very low
for Monday.
Better moisture Tuesday through Thursday will mean increasing
shower and storm coverage with greater precipitation, but storms
should be moving fast enough to keep the flash flood threat
limited. A gradual warming and drying trend will then set back in
for the weekend.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....EJD
AVIATION.....RJK
HYDROLOGY....EJD/Meier
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
851 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Evening panning out pretty much as anticipated. A few isolated
thunderstorms over the Beartooths and south of Billings, but have
probably not produced much rainfall. We have had some weak echoes
move across areas from Billings north which are now pushing east.
These probably have not produced more than sprinkles and do not
expect that to change much as they track east.
Frontal boundary has moved through northwestern third of the CWA.
Secondary push of colder air is now on doorstep to the north and
will push south through the area the rest of the night. So some
areas may see some northerly winds 20-30 mph for awhile. RH will
come up behind this secondary push which will bring relief to
fires and also push some of the lower smoke south.
Adjusted winds and PoPs a bit for current trends. BT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon through Monday night...
High level moisture is working into the area from the west this
afternoon, with mid level convection evident on satellite imagery.
Expect this moisture to result in isolated thunderstorms over the
higher terrain by mid afternoon. Initially this activity will be
dry, but should become wet enough for at least a light shower as
we head into the evening hours and any storms spread northeast.
Main impact with any thunderstorms through tonight will be locally
strong wind gusts around 50 mph. A cold front, currently located
just to the south of Great Falls, will drop into the area early
this evening with winds shifting to the north. As the front moves
through the area it will sweep any thunderstorms out ahead of it
to the east. HRRR is showing an period of wind gusts over 30 mph
spreading south across central and eastern zones behind the front
overnight, and have bumped up winds in the forecast to account for
this potential. Any convection should be out of the area by 2am
with mostly clear skies and breezy northerly winds for the rest of
the night.
Monday looks dry outside of an isolated light shower or
thunderstorm over the southern mountain and foothills.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than today with
breezy easterly winds.
Monday night starts off mostly clear, but clouds will increase
from the northwest as a stronger disturbance moves into the area
and interacts with the stalled front laying across the area. A few
showers or even a stray thunderstorm is possible before sunrise
west of a Forsyth to Broadus line. Chambers
Tuesday through Sunday...
A good chance for precipitation across all areas on Tuesday. The
cloud cover and precipitation associated with the trof digging
across the area will help hold temperatures down around average
for this time of year, and a few areas could be significantly
cooler. A chance of precipitation sticks around for Wednesday with
the best chances for rain being along the southern tier of
counties along the state line. Given the northwest flow, moisture,
and time of year could see a few strong to severe storms develop,
especially on Tuesday but possible Wednesday as well so stay
tuned to the forecast.
Once we get to Thursday the weather pattern begins to warm up and
dry out for an extended period that lasts well into the week after
next. Temperatures jump back into the 90s on Thursday and range
from 95 to 105 for many areas from Friday through the Wednesday
after next, with little chance for precipitation. On Friday, a
disturbance ducts under the ridge with a bit of monsoonal type
moisture and some models are generating isolated to scattered dry
thunderstorms from it across many areas. This would be a fire
concern due to the lightning and strong wind gusts so will be
keeping an eye on this period through the week. So the extended
shakes out as cooler with a chance of precipitation through mid
week, then hot and dry into the weekend, with a few fire weather
concerns thrown in especially Friday. Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of denser smoke will be over the eastern half of the
forecast area through midnight tonight, then a cold front will
sweep the smoke south of the area. The smoke will reduce slant
range visibility significantly at times, with possible surface
visibility restrictions to 4sm for KBIL, KLVM, KSHR.
Isolated high based thunderstorms will develop over the western
mountains and get pushed northeast by a cold front. Little
precipitation is expected with this activity but locally strong
wind gusts can be expected. Behind the cold front northerly winds
will get gusty (20-30kts) through the early morning hours, mainly
east of Billings. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/089 063/085 059/088 062/096 064/095 064/097 064/101
20/U 15/T 31/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/G
LVM 052/088 054/083 051/089 054/095 056/093 055/095 057/098
20/U 13/T 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 060/091 061/087 056/089 057/098 060/097 061/100 063/103
20/U 15/T 31/U 01/U 11/U 10/U 01/G
MLS 065/090 061/086 059/086 060/094 065/097 065/099 067/101
20/H 03/T 41/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 10/G
4BQ 066/088 063/084 060/083 059/092 064/095 064/096 067/098
20/U 14/T 52/T 11/U 11/U 10/U 01/U
BHK 062/088 057/086 057/082 056/090 060/094 061/095 063/097
20/H 02/T 52/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 10/U
SHR 060/087 056/086 053/084 054/092 057/092 057/095 059/098
21/U 25/T 42/T 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA have developed from KSJT area to KTPL area. Very little
southward movement is expected this evening into overnight as the
activity wanes with no impacts to the sites. KAUS has best chances,
though still should stay well north of the site. Expect redevelopment
toward morning and into Monday with movement farther to the south.
KAUS has higher chances of impacts and have maintained VCSH there. A
few models show some development farther southwest toward KSAT/KSSF
in the afternoon. Later forecasts may have to update to include
greater mention at the I-35 sites based on model/radar trends. VFR
flying conditions turn MVFR late this evening, then IFR overnight at
the I-35 sites. CIGs then rise back to MVFR in the morning and VFR by
midday. SHRA/TSRA may produce brief restrictions to CIGs/VSBYs. S to
SE winds 6 to 12 KTs prevail with a few gusts to 25 KTs early this
evening and on Monday. SHRA/TSRA may produce wind gusts to 40 KTs.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Overnight convection outran its forcing this morning and fizzled out
on the way into our area, with only a few showers reaching our far
NE counties. A couple other isolated showers impacted the Rio Grande
Plains but have since come to an end, leaving partly cloudy skies
and increasing temperatures in the 80s area-wide as of 18z. Much of
the area will sneak into the low to potentially mid 90s today. As
south to southeasterly flow continues at the sfc, dew points remain
in the 70s, though they should mix down into the 60s this afternoon
for a few locations out west.
A closed upper low over N MO will drift slightly further south
through tonight, with troughing moving into E TX and kicking the
subtropical ridge back out to the west. An associated weak cold front
over N TX is forecast to drop further south into Central Texas
tonight, but will stall and fall apart just to our north. It`s
likely to kick up additional shower and thunderstorm activity at
some point late this afternoon into the evening across areas to our
north. The primary models that bring this activity into our CWA this
evening are the WRF-FV3 and RAP. The RAP`s higher resolution brother
the HRRR has backed off on any storms in our area through most of
tonight, and the FV3 poorly handled this morning`s convection as
well as the current weather picture across the state and thus isn`t
likely to handle tonight`s activity well. In all likelihood, we`ll
remain dry through 06Z, though I`ll keep slight chance POPS across
our far northern counties.
Slightly better chances for some of this rain to clip our area will
come late tonight and may continue through portions of the day
tomorrow for areas primarily northeast of Fredericksburg to La
Grange. CAMS show a variety of solutions in which lingering outflow
or low level convergence axes allow for potential expansion of
showers and storms across the northeastern quarter of our region.
Capped POPs at 40 given the disparate solutions among the guidance.
At this time, not anticipating any severe weather but a stray
stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out with gusty winds being
the primary threat. Any lingering showers should end before sunset
with a dry night expected. Temperatures remain near to slightly
below seasonal averages for the most part through the short term.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
There are no significant changes in the long term form our previous
forecast. The upper trough over the eastern US will lift off to the
northeast during the early part of the week allowing the subtropical
ridge to build back over Texas. This will suppress most convection
over our CWA. However, the ridge will not be strong enough to keep
eliminate all development. There will be low chances for showers and
thunderstorms where the deepest moisture will reside over the
southeastern part of the CWA. It will take daytime heating to
initiate convection, so showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoons and early evenings. The pattern will not change
much through the week and there will be chances for rain each day
through the long term period. Temperatures will stay near to a bit
below normal.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 91 73 92 73 / 20 20 - 20 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 92 73 91 72 / 20 20 - 20 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 0 20 0
Burnet Muni Airport 73 88 71 90 72 / 30 30 - - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 75 95 75 / - - 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 90 72 91 72 / 30 30 - 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 91 72 90 72 / - - 0 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 92 72 92 72 / 20 10 0 20 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 93 75 92 74 / 10 30 - 30 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 - 0 20 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 91 74 91 75 / - - 0 20 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
927 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Quite a bit of elevated smoke continues across the eastern and
southern counties. No restrictions to visibility at the surface
currently, so removed haze mention in the grids this evening and
increased cloud cover over the smokey areas. However, there could
be some smoke near the surface later tonight if it gets trapped
under the inversion. Will continue to keep the mention later
tonight and take a look at visibility trends as the evening goes
on.
UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Some cumulus continues over the northern counties, with elevated
smoke in the south. So far not much smoke impacting the surface,
but the potential for some mixing and lower visibility at the
surface is still there. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires and seasonably warm temps
are the main highlights for the rest of the day. Elevated smoke
is expected gradual to mix towards the surface as daytime mixing
peaks around the 20-00 UTC timeframe. This is reflected in the
HRRR near surface smoke field as well. For these reasons, opted to
include haze in the forecast through the rest of today. Another
area of elevated smoke is expected to approaches from the west
ahead of Monday`s cold front. This is expected to also mix towards
the surface, continue the chance for haze throughout tomorrow.
Smoke is also impacting temps by delaying their diurnal increase,
especially in the southern Valley into northwest MN under thickest
smoke. This same effect is expected for Monday, although it is
still unclear the magnitude of how temps will be impacted.
Regardless, seasonable warmth is expected with temps in the 80s to
around 90.
Focusing now on Monday`s cold front, still expecting some
convection with this forcing mechanism as moves out of western ND
into the area early Monday morning. There may be some lingering
overnight general showers/storms ahead of the front that make
their way into the Devils Lake basin around sunrise Monday. This
activity is expected to generally dissipate during the morning.
Later in the afternoon, additional convection may develop closer
to the front which should be trekking through eastern ND into
northwest MN during the afternoon and evening Monday.
Thermodynamic and kinematic parameter spacing still looks to be
less than desirable for organized robust convection. That being
said, MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg are possible, combined with
non-zero shear around 20-30 kt. Should ingredients align just
right, wouldn`t be surprised to see a small hail report north of
US Hwy 2 late in the afternoon. But coverage, intensity, and
confidence are all low enough to omit messaging of this hazardous
weather potential.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Overall the main takeaways through this portion of the forecast are
the continuation of the warm and mainly dry weather.
Starting out with Tuesday, there may be a lingering boundary over
the eastern FA. There is not likely to be any activity in the
morning, but by afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
dew points in the upper 50s, there would be some instability. There
is still a lot of uncertainty where this boundary may be, which is
key. It could be just east of the FA, or possibly lingering in the
Baudette to Detroit Lakes area. So there could be some afternoon
thunder in this corridor, but it should move east of the area by
evening.
A more defined 700/500mb short wave tracks from west to east through
the Northern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a
lot of spread between the models in where the main precipitation
band sets up. The GEFS probabilities for 0.10 of precipitation are
highest across South Dakota into our far southern FA...on into
southern Minnesota. The Canadian/ECMWF ensembles are even a little
further south yet. Like many of our events this year, all parts of
the puzzle do not appear to be coming together with this wave
either, but it will bear watching. For the rest of the Thursday to
Sunday time frame, it continues to look warm and mainly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Some elevated smoke in the area
so far has had no aviation impacts. Will treat the smoke like
cirrus currently, and monitor for any drops in visibility later in
the period and amend as needed. Winds will be mostly from the
south to southwest at around 10 kts overnight, picking up tomorrow
during the day with some gusts up above 20 kts. Winds will begin
shifting around to a more west to northwesterly direction at KDVL
late in the period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
736 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
- Risk for stronger storms Wednesday night into Thursday
- Localized heavy rain into Tuesday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
I have taken most of the shower wording out of the forecast for
tonight. The forcing to create showers is slowly falling apart as
a result of the upper low over Missouri becoming more barotropic
over the next few hours. The mid level Q-Vector convergence our
area is totally falling apart and as a result so is the showers
are also falling apart. All of the Hi-Res models show this. At
best there will be some sprinkles south of I-96 overnight.
The chance for convection increases significantly later in the
day on Monday and even more so Monday night. The upper low over
Missouri gets absorbed by a northern stream shortwave from midday
Monday into midday Tuesday. Since the system doing this is
centered near 55N and moving east along 55N, this causes all the
energy associated with the Missouri system to be transfered
northwest. Note that 55N is the latitude through northern James
Bay and the northern part of Lake Winnipeg. This is somewhat odd
to have this happen actually, but will happen none the less. This
process of reforming the mid and upper level wave pattern Monday
into Tuesday will cause the front to our south to head north
during the day on Monday. The upper level jet that is going around
the Missouri system ends up becoming a North/South jet core from
southern IL to northern Lower Michigan by late in the day Monday.
In response to that the low level jet ramps up later in the day
Monday and even more so by early Tuesday morning.
This means we get decent upper dynamics over us Monday night (SW
Michigan is in the upper level jet left entrance region. Of course
the low level jet response to this nicely. We end up being to the
left of it`s jet axis and in the speed convergence area of the
low level jet, which is rare for our area in recent years. We have
decent q-vec convergence, centered over northern Michigan by
midnight. Also the deep layer shear ramps up in response to all of
this. So, I do believe thunderstorms will develop over or near
I-94 by Monday evening than those storm will track nearly due
north through the night. So the SPC marginal risk does make total
sense but the activity will be at night, not during the day. The
Hi-Res models like the HFEF show this, having the strongest
activity near midnight west of US-131 and mostly north of I-94,
and north of I-96 after midnight. We of course will watch how this
plays out but we could have decent thunderstorms Monday night if
this actually happens this way.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
- Risk for stronger storms Wednesday night into Thursday
Mid to upper level jet streak just of the NW U.S. coast pushes
east through Wednesday and up into the Great Lakes region
Thursday. Meanwhile a low level jet develops across the plains and
migrates through Lower MI Wed night into Thu. Deep layer shear
strengthens and becomes supportive of organized convection here in
MI as a result. There will be some instability around. Commonly
with these types of systems the convection peaks upstream in
IA...WI and MN during the warmest part of the day before pushing
through MI at night...weakening as the instability decreases. If
the system tracks through the CWA during the evening...it appears
there could be some severe storms around. Also..if the system
slows down and allows for the convection to redevelop Thu...some
strong to severe storms may result.
- Localized heavy rain into Tuesday
Overall up to this point the areas of rain have been disorganized
and of a lighter nature. This is because the system as a whole has
been fragmented. The low level jet is off to the southeast of the
CWA...aiming the steadier rains there. Meanwhile the mid to upper
level part of the system of off to the southwest of the
region...focusing more rain toward IL and MO. Going forward in
time...for Monday afternoon/evening...there are some indications
that another low level jet may develop in Southern IL and lift
towards Southern Lower MI. The low level winds do back somewhat as
this feature tries to move in. PWAT values are shown to climb up
above 1.75 inches as well...so models are advertising decent
moisture for heavier rains. The main trough axis lifts eastward
through the CWA on Tuesday...as PWAT values remain above normal. As
a result we could see one or more rounds of showers and perhaps
thunderstorms...with locally heavy rain possible. With the
afternoon update...SPC has placed southern parts of the CWA into
the marginal risk for severe weather Monday Aftn/eve. Instability
builds with perhaps enough to focus stronger convection down
towards the I94 corridor late in the day. The sfc to 6 km bulk
shear values are shown to be 25 to 30 knots...which may limit the
potential for organized convection supporting more in the way of
pulse type cells with gusty winds the main risk.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
The short version of this is MVFR cigs largely prevail over most
of our I-94 TAF sites at 00z. By 03z I expect most of our TAF
sites to be VFR through. Toward morning the low clouds push back
north again so low cigs will progress north so that most of the
day light hours of Monday will find our TAF sites with MVFR cigs.
During most of this time NO RAIN IS EXPECTED at ANY of our TAF
sites. Late in the day storms should be developing near I-94 then
spread north with time.
The northern edge of the MVFR cigs seems to be eroding southward
through as the entire system generating all of these clouds
continues to weaken. I am thinking (based on the RAP 22z model
run) the north edge of the MVFR cigs will fall south and maybe
even be south of I-94 for several hours overnight. The risk for
meaningful rain showers is less than 10 percent at any of our TAF
sites.
The front stalled south of here (near I-80) will push back as a
warm front Monday. This will trigger thunderstorms late in the day
Monday, south of I-94 at first but the storms should lift north
overnight, getting north of GRR /MKG by say 06z Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Through Tuesday the pressure gradient remains low enough to limit
the strength of the winds. Gusts are expected to remain below 20
knots. During Wednesday night the wind will increase as the low
level jet moves in. We may need small craft advisories for that
system.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
952 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
After an active afternoon and early evening, convection and even
stratiform precip has mostly calmed down aside from a few stray
showers/storms in far NW AL. Water vapor imagery shows one
vortmax/shortwave pushing to the NW across the area, with the next
one to the SW across the Ark-La-Miss. The parent upper low remains
parked over MO.
Near-term models like the HRRR reflect a lull in the shower activity
between shortwaves, before bringing in another round towards
daybreak. This is very consistent with WV imagery, so the forecast
will be updated to show something in line with this thinking. Higher
PoPs will stay in NW AL, closer to the low and where storms were less
widespread earlier today. Thunderstorms can`t be ruled out overnight
but are unlikely until the next round arrives near daybreak.
The rest of the forecast showing lows in the low 70s is in good
shape.
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Unsettled weather will continue for the start of a new work.
An unseasonably deep low setup west of the Mid Mississippi Valley
will remain in place into Tuesday, before it weakens and heads across
the Great Lakes. A trough feature with this low will help draw deep
moisture across the southeast states, continuing more clouds than sun
and good chances of showers. A cold front trailing southward from a
surface low will near the Mid South during Mon, before it weakens
somewhat and retreats more to west on Tue. Thus will maintain likely
rain chances into Tue. Rainfall amounts should range in the 1-2 inch
range into Tue with locally higher amounts. Given the rainfall will
be spread over a couple of days, am not inclined for a Flash Flood
Watch at this time. That said, some ponding of water issues and/or
rises in area rivers and streams cannot be ruled out.
High temperatures on Mon/Tue should only warm into the lower 80s,
thanks to high rain chances and clouds. These readings may actually
be a bit cooler if more clouds and/or showers are realized. A
recovery of highs into the mid/upper 80s should occur on Wednesday.
Normal highs on Wed are around 92 for reference.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
The subtropical ridge pattern, both at the sfc/aloft, will continue
to become reinforced across much of the srn Atlantic Basin into the
SE region going past mid week. This will translate into a continued
gradual warming trend thru the remainder of the work week, while
showers/tstms become more diurnally driven/sct in nature. Gulf
moisture though will continue to spread well into the mid TN Valley
into the weekend period, as south winds remain in place along the ern
fringe of the sfc ridge over the cntrl Gulf states. All of this
looks to result in near seasonal highs in the mid/upper 80s, while
overnight lows trend in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Evening TSRA have ended at KMSL, but continue at KHSV despite the
main storm cores having pushed east of the terminal. Impacts of
redeveloping TSRA S of KMSL are uncertain. For now, expecting
improvement by 01Z at KHSV.
After that, low MVFR clouds will develop overnight, and showers
could redevelop. Storm coverage is much less certain overnight, and
have left them out for now. Amendments may be necessary. Better
rain/storm chances will redevelop around daybreak, and ceilings will
remain at least MVFR thru 00Z/13.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BCC
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...BCC
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
956 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Storms moving through eastern Texas and northern Louisiana
this evening. These storms are moving to the southeast and look
to moves into central Louisiana in the next several hours. Storms
are producing cloud to ground lightning... gusty winds... and
cloud to ground lightning strikes. Storms look to taper off
through the early morning hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/
DISCUSSION...
For 07/12/2021 00Z TAF Issuance.
AVIATION...
Convection from earlier has faded and/or exited the region, though
remnant outflow and sea breeze still noted along the I-10
corridor. High res guidance suggests we still maybe could see
some isolated convection develop along this, so maintained VCTS
into the early evening. CIGS mixed with better coverage of mid
level cloud debris remaining over AEX/LFT/ARA, but conditions
should remain VFR aside from any convective development. Best
chance of convection overnight remains at AEX where guidance
suggests the potential for a nocturnal MCS after midnight. Low
confidence so opted to go PROB30 and add TEMPO groupings if
needed. For the southern terminals, thinking aside from the
potential for typical predawn patchy mist/fog, conditions should
be benign... Though a small chance if an MCS develops it could
push far enough south to impact the terminals. That said, better
convective potential at the southern terminals looks to hold off
till mid morning through the afternoon hours.
50
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)
The slowly decaying MCS that has been moving across the region
today has largely moved off to the east at this hour. The cloud
cover and precip associated with this MCS has kept temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s across central Louisiana and interior
southeast Texas while areas along and south of the I-10 corridor
climbed into the lower 90s. The last few runs of the HRRR along
with the high res NAM continue to show some additional convection
within the band of higher temperatures over the next couple of
hours although visible satellite shows no significant vertical
development yet. Short range guidance has also been consistent in
developing a second MCS across northeast TX and northwest LA late
this evening before sinking it south into central Louisiana early
tomorrow morning.
All of this is in response to a digging upper low centered over
Missouri this afternoon and several weak waves embedded within it.
The surface front associated with this trof which had been
expected to stall somewhere across central Louisiana now looks to
stall further north. However, the perturbations within the upper
low will continue to push waves of showers and thunderstorms
through the area until the broader upper low begins to slide east
of the area Wednesday. The combination of cloud cover, upward
motion and precipitation should limit the potential for early
morning fog development which has been seen the last couple of
mornings. However, with soils still saturated, some patchy light
fog can`t be ruled out during the predawn hours. Any fog that
develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise.
Jones
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...
We start the long term period with the remnants of a mid level
weakness lingering overhead, however, a broad mid level ridge
building across the Gulf from the east will quickly become the
dominant feature Wednesday into Thursday. Generally, a building
ridge would equal a return to dry weather, but long range models
really don`t want to dry us out just yet. The positioning of the
ridge should keep a modest onshore flow in place through the end of
the forecast period, which will in turn help keep PWATs around 2.0
inches. So even with some type of modest cap in place, plenty of low
level moisture and convective temps easily being reached should
result in a continued chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day. Some recent runs of the GFS also want to bring a mid-level
easterly wave across the Gulf on the south side of the ridge towards
the end of the week, which would also help to keep rain chances
elevated. Luckily, even with a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast, coverage should be relatively
isolated to widely scattered. Pretty much stuck with the NBM for the
extended POPs forecast, which depicts a diurnally driven pattern of
low rain chances overnight/in the morning, peaking in the afternoon,
and dying off with sunset. With the repetitive rainy pattern
persisting, afternoon highs will remain near seasonal norms through
the end of the period as well.
17
MARINE...
A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day through next weekend. Locally higher winds and
seas will be possible around storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 71 89 72 93 / 70 70 40 50
LCH 76 91 76 91 / 30 40 20 50
LFT 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 70
BPT 76 90 75 91 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.EVENING UPDATE...
LIX 00z upper air sounding (2nd release), launched behind the
afternoon thunderstorm complex, shows a bit of a drier airmass,
with the precipitable water value down to 1.77 inches. This
supports the earlier thinking of a bit drier airmass for Monday.
Minor grid update to adjust temperatures overnight, etc. A few
locations have had temperatures drop below previously forecast
lows due to thunderstorm outflows.
Most of the CWA currently in a lull between thunderstorm
complexes. The one that moved through this afternoon is mainly
over the coastal waters and lower Plaquemines Parish at present.
The next complex is currently in the Shreveport area and is
expected to move southeastward overnight. Leading edge could reach
the northwest portion of the CWA after midnight. Latest HRRR
would indicate main area would reach the CWA around sunrise, but
the HRRR solutions have been lagging reality by 2-3 hours most of
the day. Made adjustments to PoPs for Monday as well, based on
latest data, but mid shift will take another look at this
overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/
SYNOPSIS...
Convection has stretched out east-west along the Interstate 10
corridor over the last couple of hours, and have noticed a
significant weakening trend over the last hour or so with
noticeably less frequent lightning. Heaviest rain amounts have
generally been between Interstate 12 and the Mississippi line,
with a few spotty 3-4 inch reports.
Convection has been triggered by a vort max over northwest
Louisiana that is wrapping around an upper low over Missouri. 18Z
LIX sounding in the pre-storm environment showed a precipitable
water value of 1.92 inches, which is actually lower than most
flights over the last week or so. Still had a CAPE value near 4000
J/kg and lifted indices around -8. Storms have had a history of
30 knot or higher gusts.
Temperatures got into the upper 80s to around 90 ahead of the
convection, but have dropped back into the 70s in the post-storm
environment.
SHORT TERM (through Tuesday night)...
Main concern, as has been the case for weeks, is thunderstorm and
heavy rain potential. Convection allowing models (CAMs) support
the current diminishing trend noted on radar for the next few
hours. Currently looking at the potential for another round to
develop sometime after 09z with the next impulse rotating out of
Texas. Not as confident in the placement of heaviest precipitation
with that round, as currently depicted QPF fields appear to be
rather farther north of the current boundary than I would expect.
While most gauges look to have been in the 0.5-1.5 inch range
with the current round, and we could probably tolerate that again
toward sunrise with an 8 hour break in between, there`s a small
area that might not be able to tolerate another round of heavy
rainfall. Entertained the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch, and
will continue to monitor this evening.
Model soundings are showing a decrease in moisture levels for
Monday and Tuesday, with precipitable water values tending more
toward the 1.6-1.9 inch range, as opposed to the 1.9-2.2 range
that`s been more common the last week or two. That won`t dry out
the forecast entirely, but it should lead to lower areal coverage
of convection for Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast temperatures are tending toward the upper end of the
guidance envelope in most areas, which would be reasonable with
later developing convection. 35
LONG TERM (Wednesday and beyond)...
Focus at this time is mainly on the next 36 hours but for the
extended, look for rain to continue.
As we mentioned yesterday, just when we think we might move into a
more typical summerlike pattern things trend in the other direction.
Confidence is increasing that we will remain in the rather high rain
chance pattern through the work week and into next weekend. I know
that is exactly what we all want to hear and personally I`m
wondering if I can start to boat to work. No deviations made from
the NBM this cycle as it has well above normal PoPs for each day and
near normal temps.
Heading into the second half of the week, the western Atlantic ridge
will likely be done building into the area and will begin to erode
on the western side as another s/w drops towards the MS Valley. This
will completely erode the western periphery by Friday with a
weakness/trough over the region once again. Now the second problem
that is now sowing up is a TUTT low moving towards the Bahamas this
weekend. This will completely displace the ridge and another s/w
will work towards the MS Valley by the end of the weekend. This is
going to keep the high rain chances each day with seabreeze activity
likely beginning fairly early each morning and then moving north
through the day. /CAB/
AVIATION (00z TAF package)...
Main concern next few hours is for TSRA, which is mainly an issue
at KBTR/KHDC/KASD/KGPT, producing occasional IFR or lower
visibilities, MVFR to IFR ceilings and potential for wind gusts to
35-40 knots. Have seen a significant weakening trend in the last
hour, and it`s possible that we may be able to remove TSRA or VCTS
from most terminals prior to package issuance for the first 6-9
hours of the forecast. Beyond that, potential for MVFR ceilings
around sunrise, mainly at KMCB. TSRA/VCTS will again be an issue
during the daylight hours on Monday, but starting to see one or
two indications that areal coverage may not be quite as extensive
as today. 35
MARINE...
Persistent southerly surface flow will continue, going into the
rest of the upcoming week ahead. Overall waves/seas will remain on
the lower side, ranging 1-2ft for protected sounds to 2-3ft for
outer Gulf waters. Periodic scattered shower and storm chances
will continue as well through the rest of the week ahead. Main
threats in any one stronger storm will be gusty downdraft winds
>34kt and isolated waterspouts. KLG/35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 88 72 89 / 60 60 50 70
BTR 74 90 74 91 / 50 60 40 70
ASD 72 89 75 90 / 40 60 30 70
MSY 78 91 78 91 / 30 60 20 70
GPT 73 87 76 88 / 40 60 30 70
PQL 73 87 75 88 / 50 60 30 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
817 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 817 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Tweaked PoPs a bit lower in the chance range overnight. Scattered
showers will be possible most of the night, but coverage will be low
enough that stretches of dry weather will be common.
In the immediate near-term, have high PoPs in the Lake Cumberland
region and extending north near the I-75 corridor for a slug of rain
moving up from TN.
&&
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 517 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Rainfall rates continue to be kept in check by a relative
instability minimum over central KY and southern IN. Recent
mesoanalysis places the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE contour from Tompkinsville
KY to Lexington KY, and this is also the position of the low-level
jet and moisture transport axis. We are seeing greater coverage of
showers and storms along this axis from central AL/TN northeast
through eastern KY.
The 19z HRRR run was a little over zealous with convection near the
KY/TN border, but generally has the right idea with this favored
axis. Will continue to keep an eye on stronger convection lifting
northeast from southern TN, and it appears our eastern CWA roughly
near and east of the Tompkinsville to Lexington line has the best
chance at seeing a stronger thunderstorm and heavy rainfall in the
near term. Further west, shower coverage likely remains more
isolated/widely scattered. It is worth noting any isolated storm
over the central and western portions of the CWA would have access
to stronger deep layer shear on the order of 30-35 kt, but again,
instability and lapse rates are marginal in these areas.
Bottom line...the severe weather and flash flood threat is low at
this time. Would need to boost both duration (training) and rainfall
intensity quite a bit to realize a flash flood threat. This could
briefly occur in the far eastern CWA through the mid to late evening
hours, but the low-level jet core does shift east of the CWA
tonight.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
A large, upper level low continues to spin over the Midwest and
provide plentiful cloud cover and moisture to the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys. The clouds today have kept temperatures on the cool side
for July standards, as many locations are still in the mid to upper
70s at the time of writing this discussion. The additional cloud
cover has also limited convective coverage and intensity so far. A
quick look at mesoanalysis parameters reveal that there is a
marginal amount of deep layer shear (25-35kts), so can`t rule out
the potential of isolated organized and/or strong to marginally
severe storms. Any chance of a strong to marginally severe storm
would be east of I-65, and mainly during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.
Overnight, we`re likely to see periodic rounds of showers and
isolated storms. Doesn`t appear that coverage will be widespread at
any one given moment, but by sunrise, think a good portion of the
region will have seen at least light amounts of rain.
The periodic showers and isolated storms will continue into tomorrow
morning and afternoon as the upper level low remains fairly
stationary. Some marginal deep level shear will be present once
again, but given the expected widespread cloud coverage, instability
will be limited. Best chance to see an isolated strong to marginally
severe storm will be in areas/pockets of clearing where a localized
maximum of instability can be achieved in the presence of the
marginal deep layer shear.
.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
By Monday night, we will continue to be located on the eastern side
of the upper trough axis and under the upper jet streak. Associated
sfc low pressure system should still be spinning over northern
Illinois, with a warm front boundary extending to the east across
the Lake Erie region, and a trailing cold front through Illinois and
western Kentucky. Bermuda High pressure combined with the sfc low
places Kentucky in an enhanced southwesterly flow regime, continuing
to bring rich Gulf air into our region. Integrated Vapor Transport
highlights a SW to NE conveyor belt of moisture Monday night through
Tuesday as a result of a 25-35kt southwesterly LLJ overhead. This
LLJ will help keep precip chances in the forecast during the
overnight hours and into Tuesday. Monday evening (Tue 00-03z) may
have some storms mixed in with showers as left over instability from
daytime heating and effective bulk shear of around 30 kts resulting
from the LLJ support a marginally supportive environment for strong
storms. Weak lapse rates will be a limiting factor for more
organized convection, but showers may be heavy at times with PWATs
near 1 standard deviation above normal.
The Bermuda High will slowly begin to shift westward on Tuesday,
which will force the upper low pressure system northeastward into
the Great Lakes region. The core of the LLJ should be departing to
the NE, but we will continue to be under the influence of deep SW
flow and enhanced moisture advection. With temperatures forecast to
reach the low 80s on Tuesday afternoon, should see additional rounds
of showers and afternoon thunderstorms as instability peaks with
diurnal heating. PoPs will linger into Wednesday as the trough axis
pivots eastward, but with the high pressure anchoring to the SE US,
upper flow becomes more zonal for Wednesday evening and Thursday.
NBM populates dry wx for the Wednesday night time frame, which seems
reasonable given the lowest PoPs occur each night with loss of
daytime heating. This also agrees well with GFS PWAT Anomaly, which
briefly places a negative standard deviation across our region
Wednesday night.
Another upper shortwave trough and sfc low will be located over
Minnesota on Thursday after diving out of Canada and across the
Dakotas on Wednesday, with another cold front trailing across the
Iowa and Nebraska region. At the same time, a large area of sfc high
pressure will be located over the southeast quadrant of the US.
Placement of these two features will create a tightening pressure
gradient and develop a strong LLJ ahead of the cold front. GFS
suggests we`ll see 850mb winds of 20-40kts extending from Texas to
the Great Lakes, with the core of the jet focused somewhere over the
Midwest. Expect Thursday and Friday to feature afternoon PoPs
(mostly diurnally driven) as temperatures rise back into the upper
80s and near 90F each day.
Global models diverge this weekend on the evolution of the northern
shortwave/associated cold front, but overall consensus is that we
will carry PoPs into the weekend based off the slow progression of
the frontal boundary as it should dive southward and into the Ohio
Valley.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible through much
of this TAF period, though any one terminal will have large
stretches of dry weather. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be
completely ruled out overnight, but opted to remove VCTS for now due
to low confidence in a storm actually impacting a TAF site.
MVFR ceilings with some pockets of IFR are likely to develop between
08-12z Monday morning. Ceilings slowly improve to VFR by early
afternoon. Monday afternoon will feature breezy southerly winds and
scattered showers/isolated storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...EBW
Update...EBW
Short Term...DM
Long Term...CJP
Aviation...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
841 PM PDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will remain hot and dry through Wednesday
with afternoon temperatures in the 90s. The warmest locations will
likely hit triple digits on Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the
arrival of a cold front. Thursday and Friday should be cooler with
mid 80s to low 90s. Smoke from fires in the Blue Mountains and
southern Nez Perce county will likely plague far southeast
Washington and the Lewiston area the next several days. Smoke
along the Canadian border will be possible as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: A very dry air mass remains over the region
tonight which will result in continued clear skies. Made some
updates to the haze and smoke forecast into Tuesday. For tonight
and Monday smoke and haze will be mainly confined to areas near
wildfires, which includes in and above the Methow Valley, Blue
Mountains, LC Valley, Camas Prairie, and portions of Shoshone
county. Monday night into Tuesday we begin to see some changes as
the flow turns north-northwest on the back side of a departing
upper trough. Several large fires in BC today, including one north
of Oroville which continues to burn active this evening. This could
provide a significant smoke source as northerly winds come down
the Okanogan Valley Monday night. Latest HRRR smoke model is
showing this so increased the smoke wording for this area Monday
night into Tuesday. It is likely smoke will move south into the
Columbia Basin by Tuesday morning although given further proximity
from the source region of smoke confidence is low as to the smoke
concentrations. HRRR smoke also showing quite a bit of higher
level smoke across all the area on Tuesday and thus haze was
included for all areas.
No changes to Monday`s thunderstorm forecast with some of the
latest CAM`s models. There will be chance of late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms first over the North Cascades, with the
threat expanding to include the Okanogan Highlands Monday evening.
Should any storms develop they will be slow moving with heavy rain
with localized flash flooding not out of the question. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The main challenge with TAFs continues to be
forecasting where the wildfire smoke will go. Fairly confident
LWS will see smoke tonight but unsure how dense it will get.
Pullman may also see some smoke tonight but confidence is far too
low to include in the forecast. With temperatures cooling
overnight, expect smoke to pool in may of the ID Panhandle valleys
but will mix out by the late morning on Monday. VFR conditions
with light and diurnally driven winds will prevail elsewhere.
Wilson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 61 97 63 98 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 58 96 61 96 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 55 94 57 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 65 102 68 103 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 55 98 57 99 58 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 53 93 57 93 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 64 93 65 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 60 99 62 101 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 67 99 69 101 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 65 101 67 103 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur
d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area.
WA...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
836 PM PDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Updated aviation and marine discussions.
.SYNOPSIS...Under predominantly zonal upper level flow, the area will
see largely tranquil weather conditions throughout the next several
days. Prevailing onshore flow will promote fluxes of marine moisture
and stratus each night, but surface heating will quickly burn off the
clouds each morning to promote warm afternoons everywhere except
along the coast. For the latter part of the week, a strong upper low
approaching our area from the Gulf of Alaska will lower heights and
bring more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...This evening through Wednesday...The mainly mellow
weather pattern continues as NW Oregon and SW Washington remain
under the influence of a zonal 500mb flow regime. Several short-
range models (i.e. the NAM, UWWARF, and RAP) agree that 500mb
heights will lower briefly tomorrow before rebounding Tuesday as a
weak shortwave trough traverses the northern part of our CWA. This
ripple in the flow aloft, being slightly stronger than the one that
passed immediately north of our area this morning, should promote a
deeper layer of clouds tomorrow. In addition, the movement of the
low towards our east will induce a stronger gradient favoring
another robust push of marine air Tuesday morning. As compared to
this morning, 1000-850mb relative humidity will be higher both
Monday and Tuesday mornings to also favor the aforementioned marine
push. To account for this, the sky coverage forecast tomorrow and
Tuesday were more or less a carbon copy of this morning`s visible
satellite observations - except the areas of stratus were expanded
slightly and made to last for a bit longer (since a deeper marine
layer will be slower to burn off). Similar to this morning, there is
another slight chance for drizzle along the north coast, but
uncertainty is high so decided not to add it to the forecast.
Overall, not much change in the forecast through Tuesday.
Another point of concern in the immediate term was the decision as
to whether or not to add smoke for part of our area. Satellite
images shows diffuse, lofted smoke from the Bootleg Fire in south-
central Oregon which may move north in upper-level southwesterly
flow. Given that the HRRR smoke model suggests smoke will skirt our
southeastern CWA along the Cascades, and that visible imagery
depicts this plume nearing our area, have elected to add a mention
of haze for the eastern Lane Co. Cascades through early Tuesday
morning. -Bumgardner
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Cluster analysis
portrays a low amount of uncertainty in the large-scale pattern for
the first portion of the long-term, with a general trend towards
lowering 500mb heights in advance of an approaching, deep trough. As
is often the case in patterns with a high pressure ridge towards our
east, the trough attempting to move in from the west is progged to
be "blocked". This may force it to become stationary or even
retreating westward for the middle to latter portion of the long
term period. This makes it difficult to discern which system will
have a dominant impact on temperatures.
This being said, the inclination is towards cooler temperatures for
Thursday through Saturday, during which time the cluster solution
with the highest number of total ensemble members is depicting lower-
than-normal (but only by around 30 meters) heights over our area. It
seems in each cluster solution favoring lower heights compared with
the others, the members from the ECMWF constitute a high proportion
of the total - not surprising given the Euro deterministic (often
the best in the long term) has trended the coolest. Not surprisingly
given it`s day 7, Sunday the forecast becomes trickier with all four
clusters different. The NBM, with its IQR of 84-89F at PDX and 82-
87F at Eugene for probable high temperatures, suggests it will be
the first day in a gradual warming trend. -Bumgardner
&&
.AVIATION...Marine stratus is hugging the coast this evening
under north winds. The coastal winds are becoming more NW; as a
result low clouds are slowly advancing into the coastal valleys.
As of 0330z, IFR cigs were affecting KONP and were right on the
doorstep of KAST. Expect IFR cigs to fully move over KAST by 05z.
IFR/low MVFR conds should then affect the coast overnight,
lingering through Monday morning. The stratus will move inland
along the lower Columbia River late tonight with MVFR conditions
for KSPB and KKLS likely. It is uncertain if the clouds will make
it into the north Willamette Valley, and impact KVUO, KPDX, and
KTTD, but a weak upper level disturbance moving over the area
favors the possibility. Any marine stratus that may make it
inland Monday morning will rapidly clear to VFR conditions late
in the morning. The clouds along the coast will take longer to
clear, and may persist into Monday afternoon.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening. The gusty NW winds early this evening should ease below
10 kt by 07z. There is a possibility that stratus will move up
the lower Columbia River valley tonight and possibly reach the
terminal between 12 and 17z Monday. Weagle/TJ
&&
.MARINE...Marine forecast appears to be on track, and no changes
were made this evening. N-NW winds briefly touched gale criteria
near Florence late Sunday afternoon, but have since come down
and are in line with our forecast. The marine discussion from
this afternoon follows. Weagle
A persistent weather pattern of High pressure across the waters
and a thermally induced low over NW California will continue
north waters across the coastal waters through the week. The
winds will be strongest in the afternoon and evening where gusts
up to 25 kt are likely, especially in the waters south of
Tillamook, Oregon. The high pressure weakens a tad on Monday and
Monday night which will make it hard for the north winds across
the south Washington and north Oregon coastal waters to have
gusts much above 20 kt, especially within 10 nm from the coast.
The small craft advisory headlines were therefore modified to end
earlier in the northern waters. The high pressure strengthens
Tuesday returning the afternoon gusty winds to the waters. The
north winds are expected to decrease again late in the week into
next weekend as a low pressure system moves towards the B.C.
coast north of the Washington coastal waters.
Seas will be a combination of fresh north swell and steep wind
waves. Swell periods will predominately be less than 9 seconds
and wave heights between 4 and 6 feet. The low-amplitude
northwest swell with a frequency of 14 seconds has decreased
today making it less of an influence on the significant wave
heights. ~TJ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from
Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10
NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Waters from
Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
&&
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
824 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
and evening. Ridging builds in from the east Monday and will
keep most precipitation and lightning over the western
mountains. The airmass will remain hot and humid overall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 824 PM EDT Sunday...
A mild overnight with pockets of fog, then scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Monday...
The Nam-nest, HRRR and HiresW-Arw showed showers and
thunderstorms tapering off tonight with the loss of solar
heating. Current radar trends showed coverage of storms
decreasing as expected. Most storms should end by 06z. The warm
frontal boundary will continue lifting north overnight. The
combination of low level moisture and light winds will create
areas of fog and stratus late tonight into Monday morning, in
particular over the river valleys. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild with readings from the upper 50s in the mountains
to around 70 degrees in the piedmont.
A strong Bermuda high will build over the western Atlantic
Monday. Aloft ridging will build in our area from the southeast.
Moist south to southwest flow will combine with heating to
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over
the mountains. SPC Day 2 convective outlook has placed a
marginal threat of severe weather to our west. High temperatures
Monday will range from the mid 70s in the northwest mountains of
Greenbrier to the lower 90s in the piedmont.
Moderate to good confidence in Near Term forecast.
Previous discussion
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
The Mid Atlantic region was in between strong ridging over the
western Atlantic and a digging closed low over the Midwest. This put
us in southwesterly flow aloft, with the jet stream and vorticity
maximums to our west. At the surface, the main surface low was back
in IL/IN with a wavy warm front extending through Ohio and the
Virginias. A cold front was over the southern Plains, making for a
broad warm sector.
We are on the eastern envelope of the stronger storms today, but we
have enough instability (MLCAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg) and forcing
for ascent so that airmass thunderstorms are giving way to more
organized multicells. These more organized storm structures
will continue to feed off of existing outflow boundaries in the
region from previous or ongoing convection, and form broken
QLCS lines through this evening. Convection overall so far looks
similar to yesterday, and some areas will see more than one
round of rain/storms. Training along with deep warm cloud depths
and PWATs in excess of 1.50" will increase rain efficiency, and
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is possible. The added
downward momentum transfer of this mass will support damaging
winds in the strongest storms, especially in bowing segments.
Convection will begin to taper off tonight, similar to last night,
with the loss of heating. The warm frontal boundary will lift north
overnight. Expect another night of widespread fog and stratus late
tonight into the earlier morning hours Monday, in particular over
the river valleys. Overnight lows will be warm again and in the
lower to mid 60s along and west of the Blue Ridge, and in the upper
60s/lower 70s to the east.
On Monday ridging will push in from the southeast, especially
from 7H up. It will be another hot and humid day, with highs at
our slightly above climate norms. The ridge will limit our
thunderstorm activity somewhat west of the Blue Ridge. Still
expecting some showers and thunderstorms to form in the heat of
the day, especially over the mountains, but the severe threat
will be diminished.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
During this portion of the forecast, the region will remain between
high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas, and a trough/low
somewhere across the central portions of the country. The question
mark in this pattern remains how much capping influence will the
high/ridge have versus how close in proximity will the upper trough
and surface be to act as a focus for convection initiation. The
answer regarding at least the trough position will be an increasing
favorable position for convection initiation as the feature makes
gradual progress eastward Monday night through Wednesday. The trend
will make showers and storms more probable across the far western
sections of the region, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. However, but Wednesday night, the trough both washes out and
continues its progression into parts of New England, allowing for
any surface front to also wash our, and/or retreat back to the north
by daybreak Thursday.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average a few
degrees above normal, with Tuesday slightly warmer than Wednesday.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Sunday...
For the first half of this portion of the forecast, while we will
remain within a warm and moist atmosphere, any frontal boundary
north of the region is expected to remain well north of the region.
This will limit the focus for convection to weak orographical
convergence and areas of differential heating, all while
encountering some degree of capping from the western Atlantic high.
The result will be isolated to scattered coverage of showers and
storms that should dissipate quickly at sunset.
As we progress into and through the upcoming weekend, the upper
level low across the Upper Mississippi Valley is expected to open
into a more progressive wave, and head east to along the border of
southern Quebec and Ontario. Its associated cold front is expected
to approach, and possibly reach our area. This feature will bring
lifting mechanism needed (the front and better divergence aloft) to
support better coverage of showers and storms, and slightly cooler
high temperatures. Showers and storms will have a better chance of
continuing past sunset, along with the potential for redevelopment,
especially across western sections of the area, nearest the cold
front.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be within a
couple of degrees plus or minus of normal conditions for this time
of year. However, high temperatures will trend slightly cooler
through the period while low temperatures may inch upward slightly.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 746 PM EDT Sunday...
A warm front will lift north across the region this evening into
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected this evening into tonight with MVFR
ceilings/visibilities or perhaps lower if right under a
thunderstorm with heavy rain. Away from any thunderstorm
activity, expect VFR. The convection will diminished overnight,
but low level moisture remains and there will be more fog and
low stratus. The taf site with the best chance of fog is KLWB.
Any low clouds and fog will lift or burn off after 13Z Monday
morning. MVFR scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Monday afternoon with the best chances over KLWB and KBLF.
Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Daily Sub-VFR afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
look to continue for the Monday through Friday timeframe.
Thunderstorm activity will mainly be confined to the mountains
Monday through Wednesday as ridging and subsidence aloft starts
to build from the southeast. Better chances for storms arrive
Thursday and Friday as our next front nears the area. The
unsettled weather will continue on Saturday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...KK/SH
SHORT TERM...DS/SH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/SH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
142 PM PDT Sun Jul 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Major heat wave will persist a couple more days before
temperatures gradually ease through the week. Isolated storms
forming over the high terrain will again be possible today, with
coverage increasing Monday through Wednesday as deeper moisture
moves into the region. Conditions will dry out by late in the week
with typical mid-summer heat continuing.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday.
Heat through Tuesday: Dangerously hot temperatures will persist
across the entire area through Monday. As we look into Tuesday, two
factors look to be limiting the HeatRisk values across southeast
Nevada, northwest Arizona and eastern San Bernardino County. The
first is the additional injection of monsoon moisture into those
area while the second is likely rain cooled air from the passage of
showers and thunderstorms through the area Monday evening into
Tuesday morning. With that said, the previous shift did extend the
Excessive Heat Warning out through Tuesday evening for Nye,
Esmeralda, Inyo and northwest San Bernardino County. Does not look
like any spots will need to be extended into Wednesday, Thank
Goodness.
Storm chances through Tuesday: Outflow winds from last nights
complex of storms over south central Arizona did push the monsoon
moisture boundary further north and west into southern Nevada and
eastern California today. This moisture in poised to push further
northward into south central Nevada Monday before retreating back
southward to areas generally along and southeast of I-15 Tuesday. As
the area remains situated under the high center itself there are no
defined features that really stand out in helping support organized
convection. Therefore, convective initiation will occur over the
higher terrain with outflow winds (cool pools) pushing development
into the valleys during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Convective allowing models sending a mixed message regarding storm
chances for Clark County this evening. HRRR and HRW FV3 both show an
area of storms moving south out of Lincoln County and through Clark
County this evening. The 3 other members that make up the HREF
indicate a lower probabilities of this scenario occuring. Did blend in
the camPoPs to expand coverage of storms this evening to account for
the possibility. It looks like a very similar scenario on Monday and
Tuesday with storms moving from northwest to southeast out of south
central Nevada through Clark County and the Lake Mead NRA during the
evening and potentially lasting well into Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning through the lower Colorado River Valley and Mohave
County. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will be the primary
concern with any storms that move into the deeper monsoon moisture
across Clark, Mohave and eastern San Bernardino Counties the next
few days. Further north across central Nevada where moisture values
are not as great gusty winds and isolated dry lighting will be the
primary concern.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.
Heat will gradually moderate through the long term period and there
should be no need for additional heat headlines.
Meanwhile, Wednesday will continue to see elevated monsoonal
moisture, with best storm chances favoring southern Nevada and
Northwest Arizona. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm
winds will be the main concerns through this period, though details
in storm coverage and intensity remains a little unclear. Moisture
appears fairly abundant, but forcing will be limited to daytime
heating and terrain influences. By Thursday, high pressure ridge
will flatten out with a more westerly flow kicking in aloft. This
will tend to shift the deeper moisture eastward and focus any
remaining storm chances into Northwest Arizona. The forecast
thereafter remains fairly dry until the Four Corners high rebuilds
sometime over the weekend or early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...Listed below are a few climate locations showing both the
record high maximum and high minimum temperature for each location and
the year the record was last set for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
LOCATION SUN-JULY 11 MON-JULY 12
(HIGH MAX) Record(year) Record(year)
Las Vegas NV 116(1959) 114(2003)
Bishop CA 107(2020) 108(2020)
Barstow CA 115(2003) 115(2020)
Needles CA 120(2020) 124(1925)
Kingman AZ 110(1961) 111(2020)
Desert Rock NV 110(2012) 111(2020)
Death Valley CA 129(1913) 130(1913)
LOCATION SUN-JULY 11 MON-JULY 12
(HIGH MIN) Record(year) Record(year)
Las Vegas NV 91(2012) 94(2020)
Bishop CA 70(2013) 69(1990)
Barstow CA 85(2002) 87(2012)
Needles CA 94(2012) 92(2019)
Kingman AZ 81(1906) 83(1925)
Desert Rock NV 81(1996) 81(2003)
Death Valley CA 105(1920) 107(2012)
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...An easterly wind will continue
into the early evening hours. Forecast becomes much more complicated
this evening between 03Z-06Z. There is the potential of storms
moving north to south across the valley. Initial push of winds looks
to come from the northeast but once storms enter the valley just
covered the period with variable winds 20 kts gusts to 30 kts.
Expecting southerly winds overnight into Monday morning. Can`t be
too specific in the details but it looks like a very similar
situation could occur Monday evening.
Extreme temperatures are expected again today and Monday, with
temperatures reaching 100 degrees each morning by 9-10 AM and
falling below in the 12-2 AM time frame. High temperatures will be
near 116 today and 112 on Monday.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast
California...Isolated thunderstorms possible across southeast
California, southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this evening.
Gusty surface winds primary concern for general aviation. Similar
conditions expect for Monday with storms developing over the higher
terrain then moving into the lower valleys in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Potential of gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
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