Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/08/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
837 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Overall the forecast is doing fine so no major updates planned.
Latest HRRR runs still bring some convection into and across the
CWA from NW to SE late tonight. Temperatures look okay.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Cooler air and cu clouds have dominated the weather across the cwa
this afternoon. Expect these cu clouds to dissipate into the evening
as surface heating subsides. Otherwise, the ops models and hi-res
models all point to two short wave troughs coming around the upper
ridge to our west, affecting our region through Thursday night. For
tonight, indications are that short wave/waa lift over the cooler
air and mid level instability will bring scattered showers and
storms across the region later tonight into Thursday. The second
stronger short wave trough will drop in from the northwest Thursday
afternoon and night. This wave will be more significant as there
will be higher surface dewpoints, warmer temperatures, deeper
instability and stronger deep layer shear. SPC has put a slight risk
over much of our central and north central sd counties for this
time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Nearly steady state highs hovering a little below average for this
time of year will switch to rising temperatures for Sunday through
Tuesday, with above average temperatures continuing through the rest
of the work week. Lows will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Unsettled weather, with off and on showers and thunderstorms, will
continue into Saturday, with mainly dry weather Saturday night
through the rest of the period. While most of the stronger storms
will be to our east by 12Z Friday, we can`t rule out additional
storms over mainly eastern SD. Another good chance will be over
mainly central SD Friday night, as waves continue to rotate around
the 500mb ridge over the southwestern U.S.
Our attention will turn back to fire weather Sunday and beyond. At
this point we have daytime rh values falling into the upper 20s to
30s across much of the area most days from Sunday through next
Wednesday. On a positive note, winds will be mainly light. The
exception will be with any thunderstorms, or potentially Monday
afternoon into Tuesday as low pressure sets up to our west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys are expected overnight. However, as showers and
thunderstorms move in after midnight, areas of MVFR vsbys due to
rain is possible. MVFR cigs might also accompany the showers.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Main question tonight is whether stratus will clear and/or fog will
develop. RAP seems to have a decent handle on the short term cloud
trends and so have favored that trend with this forecast. Fog for
tomorrow morning is also a question. Light winds and low level
moisture from recent rain suggest potential for fog, but if clouds
do not clear, fog development could be inhibited. Have introduced
patchy fog in SE MN tonight. Tomorrow another wave approaches so
have introduced low pops for showers in the afternoon, although both
coverage and amounts look light. Otherwise temperatures will be in
the 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Area remains under northwest flow aloft Friday into Saturday. An
impulse embedded in the northwest flow is expected track into the
Central Plain states. The trend has been slightly further southwest
track with the impulse and associated surface features. This would
keep higher instability and stronger moisture transport/convergence
southwest of the forecast area. The 07.12z GFS suggest some moisture
convergence/forcing over the western forecast area during the day
Friday. Will continue shower/storm chances with higher chances west
of the Mississippi River. Severe threat looks very low over the
area...as the shear and instability will be southwest of forecast
area.
Impulse/upper level trough digs over the Central Plains Saturday.
Southern parts of the forecast area remain on the northern periphery
of the impulse/surface low. With enough vertical motion and forcing
over the southern parts of the forecast will allow for a small
chance of showers to linger mainly over the southern portion of the
forecast area. Temperatures will remain below normal Friday into
Saturday...as the 07.12z GFS/NAM indicate 925mb temperatures cooling
to plus 13 to plus 17 degrees celsius by 12 Saturday. High
temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 70s.
Main forecast concerns Saturday night through Wednesday are
precipitation chances through the period. The 07.12z deterministic
models continue to close off upper level low over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region Saturday night into early next week. The
deterministic models indicate placement issues with the upper level
closed off low. The latest EPS ensemble members show several
ensemble members place upper level closed low southeast of the
forecast area...however there are a few members further northwest
with the placement. Confidence in placement of upper level closed low
continues to be low...the ensemble members hint the upper level
closed low could be southeast of forecast area and could keep most
of the area dry Saturday night into Monday. At this time...with the
discrepancies between the models/ensembles will continue with low
chances during this period. Temperatures will be below normal Sunday
into Monday...then begin to rebound Tuesday into Wednesday as
southerly flow pattern develops to advect warmer temperatures aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Cigs: short term models and satellite trends suggesting the low cigs
(ifr/mvfr) are going to hang around through at least Thu morning
with RAP bufkit soundings and RH fields pointing to improvement
(VFR) in the early afternoon. Looking to scatter out in the evening
but low clouds could be on the return, at least for KRST, later in
the day Friday.
WX/vsby: weak upper level shortwave trough and some upglide on the
290:300 K sfcs has resulted in patchy to areas of drizzle. Vsby
restrictions below 2sm at times. RAP and satellite trends suggest
the drizzle should shift southeast of the TAF sites by 09z or
so...could be even earlier at KRST.
Looking ahead to tomorrow night, with a deep light wind layer,
clearing skies and recent saturation, could have some fog
development. How widespread/impactful it could be (if it develops)
is not certain at this time. Will monitor and adjust forecast as
needed.
Winds: generally light (less than 10 kts) through the period. Mostly
northern overnight/Thu, becoming more east Thu night.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1024 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be common across the area through
Thursday as a stationary front lingers in the area. Low pressure
will finally kick it eastward by Friday with a cool and mostly
dry weekend in store. Warmer and more humid conditions return
next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A quasi-stationary front is draped out just south of Lake
Ontario late this evening with soupy air to the south of it and
much cooler and less humid weather to its north. The flow aloft
is directing showers and thunderstorms which developed earlier
today across the boundary and into the cooler and more stable
air mass. This is causing these storms to rapidly weaken, and
diminishing any severe weather threat for tonight.
As this convective wave slides to our east after midnight,
expect a break in the action with only scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. This is captured well by the HRRR and
some other mesoscale guidance.
Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2
inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest
instability will allow for what looks like several surges of
rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch
amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides
through the area on Thursday.
A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a
trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the
area into Thursday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tropical Storm Elsa will race northeast along the New England Coast
Friday as it becomes captured and accelerated by an approaching mid
latitude trough moving into the Great Lakes. Elsa will have no
direct impact on our area. The upstream mid level trough and
associated cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Friday, and
may produce a few more scattered showers. The best rain chances will
reside from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and east of Lake
Ontario, with lower chances across the Niagara Frontier. Extensive
cloud cover and an early arrival of the cold front will keep thunder
chances minimal. Highs will reach the mid 70s owing to cloud cover
and the start of weak cold advection during the afternoon.
A drier airmass will move into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night
with any showers ending from west to east in the evening. Clearing
skies and the arrival of a cooler/drier airmass will allow low
temperatures to drop into the 50s overnight.
Saturday and Saturday night high pressure will build into the Great
Lakes, allowing for a return to dry weather and lower humidity.
Highs Saturday will reach the mid to upper 70s away from the
immediate lakeshores. Lows Saturday night will drop into the 50s in
most locations and lower 60s along the lakeshores.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid
level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal
zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great
Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as
humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing
southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the
southeast coast.
The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of
rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the
slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers
will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday
areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level
boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes.
The trough may move east of the area by next Wednesday, although a
moist/unstable environment may still support a chance of a few
scattered showers and storms in the afternoon along and inland of
the lake breeze boundaries.
Highs Sunday will reach the lower 80s for lower elevations away from
the lakeshores, with still comfortable humidity. Monday through
Wednesday highs will reach the low to mid 80s each day, and surface
dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are possible overnight,
mainly before 06Z. Otherwise, increasing low moisture will
result in lowering cigs and possibly some fog late tonight.
Expect conditions to lower to MVFR or lower at many spots by
daybreak.
As a system tracks through the area Thursday, moderate to heavy
rain will result, which will again generate widespread IFR
conditions as it moves through.
Outlook...
Thursday night...IFR with showers, a few thunderstorms, and
possibly some fog.
Friday...Improving to MVFR/VFR with diminishing chances for showers.
Saturday...VFR. A chance of showers over the far west.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will meander south of Lake Ontario overnight before
moving back northward near its south shores on Thursday. Winds
have diminished, allowing the small craft headlines to be
dropped overnight. By Thursday a weak surface low will be
advancing along this frontal boundary...with a relaxed pressure
gradient maintain winds and waves below small craft thresholds.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fries
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Fries
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel/Fries
MARINE...Apffel/Fries
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
911 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
Musselshell, Yellowstone and Treasure Counties. The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the rest of southeast MT
until 11 PM MDT tonight. RMS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...
A couple of disturbances moving through the area this afternoon
through tonight. First one doesn`t pack much punch but is
producing a few very light showers and some wind gusts to 30 mph
around Livingston. The cloud cover from this feature is helping to
hold temperatures down just a bit from what they would be, and may
cut 5 degrees off high temperatures across the southwest quarter
of the forecast area. The second disturbance will push into the
area from the west around 4pm or so and is expected to generate a
squall line of high based thunderstorms that will cross the area
this evening exiting the east in the early morning hours. Airmass
and shear profiles are much different than yesterday, so the mode
of storms today will be high based with damaging wind gusts being
the main threat. Last several runs of the HRRR showing a wall of
wind moving into the Billings area between 5 and 7pm with gusts in
the 40 to 60 mph range, and possibly as high as 75mph if
everything plays out just right. The aforementioned cloud cover
reduced temperatures may play a role in just how strong those
winds get. Frequent lightning, brief rainfall, and maybe some
small hail are also possible with these storms.
Thursday looks drier with less convective activity. Models are
taking the next disturbance well north of the area which allows
downslope west to northwest winds to scour out some of the
moisture that was in place the past week or so. That pushes RH
values well into the teens to single digits, while temperatures
stick in the mid to upper 90s. At this time winds look light
enough to preclude any fire weather highlites but will keep an eye
on that.
Thursday night northeast winds try to surge back into the area
from the northern plains, bringing moisture and cooler air back
int the area for Friday. Along this resurgent boundary there could
be a few showers/thunderstorms develop, mainly from Rosebud county
east.
Main message for the short term, be prepared for the possibility
of damaging winds with line of storms that moves through this
evening. Chambers
Friday through Wednesday...
The extended period continues to look fairly active, at least to
start the period, with some potential for late period activity as
well.
Friday and Friday night should see a chance for widespread precip
for the region, as an upper level trough crosses the region,
flattening the ridge. Precip is expecte to linger in the east for
much of the day Saturday. The upper level ridge is quick to
rebuild over western Montana Saturday and shift eastward Sunday,
bringing a return of dry conditions and hot temperatures.
An area of low pressure is progged across southern Canada Sunday
night, which should flatten the ridge again. The pattern locks
fairly flat from this point through midweek, allowing potential
for a more progressive, active pattern to re-emerge. A cold front
associated with the Canadian low is expected to dropping through
the area Monday, bringing slightly cooler temps, and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Additional pieces of energy will keep
temps a little cooler than those seen over the weekend, and could
bring additional precip potential. Currently ensembles and models
look fairly dry for the latter half of the extended period, so
grids are mainly dry this far out.
Expect highs in the 80s to low 90s for Friday and Saturday, with
with 90s to a few degrees above 100 for Sunday. Upper 80 and low
90s are expected for the beginning of next week. Overnight lows
look to be in the 50s and 60s for most nights. Gilstad
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few
thunderstorms are drifting through the southern mountains early
this afternoon, slowly diminishing as they move eastward. Main
aviation threat with this activity will be localized gusts to
35kts. A squall line is expected to develop over the western
foothills (KLVM) late this afternoon and spread eastward into the
KBIL area between 23-01z and into KMLS 03-05z. Thunderstorms along
this squall are expected to produce wind gusts of 40 to 60kts.
Local MVFR visibility is possible near precipitation areas
associated with the squall line. Conditions will improve quickly
behind the line. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/097 063/088 059/091 063/099 066/093 063/092 063/092
21/U 14/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 055/094 054/085 052/092 056/097 057/092 055/091 055/091
21/H 14/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 061/098 061/091 056/092 059/100 062/096 060/095 060/094
31/U 24/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 065/095 062/087 061/088 063/098 065/094 062/092 062/091
41/U 24/T 31/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
4BQ 065/095 063/088 061/086 061/095 066/095 063/091 063/090
41/U 24/T 42/T 01/U 01/U 11/U 21/U
BHK 060/093 058/086 057/085 058/094 060/093 058/088 058/088
52/T 24/T 52/T 01/U 11/U 11/U 21/U
SHR 058/094 057/086 053/087 055/095 059/092 057/091 057/088
21/U 14/T 31/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 in effect until 11 PM MDT this
evening FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-171.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
804 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from Elsa will begin to
increase across the region this evening with widespread
rain overnight into Thursday morning. One to three inches of
rain is expected with locally higher amounts especially across
the eastern Midlands. After Elsa, a typical summer-like pattern
begins with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible each
day and temperatures right around average.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
At 00z, Tropical Storm Elsa is located over southeast Ga moving
to the north. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms over
coastal Ga moving north toward the region. Radar widespread rain
ahead of the center spreading north along coastal Ga toward
South Carolina and east central GA. Latest meso-analysis showing
moderate CAPE across the region. Increasing 0-1km shear/SR
helicity expected across the east and SE Midlands/CSRA during
the evening and overnight as the tropical storm approaches. This
is supported by latest Rap and HRRR guidance. SPC has issued a
Tornado Watch for the southeast portion of our CWA until 5am
tonight. So threat for a few embedded brief tornadoes in the
region overnight.
Previous forecast appears on track with pops increasing to
categorical as the Elsa moves into the region. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. Increased convective coverage and
high rain rates will lead to rainfall amounts between 1 to 3
inches with highest amounts in the southeast, locally up to 5
inches in some locations. With cyclone moving fast, and Flash
Flood guidance high, held off on Flood Watch.
Observations are indicating wind gusts to tropical storm
strength well to the east of the center near coastal Ga.
Although the strongest winds will probably remain in the SC
coastal plain and instability main weaken late tonight, gusts to
around 40 mph possible mainly in the eastern Midlands near
I-95...and Lake Marion overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Elsa will lift northeastward away from the region Thursday
night with some possible lingering residual showers across the
forecast area. On Friday, the upper trough that will help move
Elsa up the eastern seaboard will move southeastward into the
Ohio Valley as some shortwave energy crosses our area during the
afternoon hours of peak heating. PWATs will remain relatively
high in the wake of Elsa with values around 1.7-1.9 inches,
which combined with diurnal heating and some weak shortwave
energy should lead to scattered or potentially numerous showers
and thunderstorms.
Saturday and Saturday night, the upper trough will lift north
of the region in response to a much deeper upper trough digging
into the middle of the country. 500mb flow should back a bit
more southwesterly and expect lower chances of diurnal
convection Saturday afternoon with no real trigger for
convection in the absence of a shortwave.
Temperatures during this period will be near normal with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A return to a more typical summer pattern is expected late in
the weekend into the middle of next week.
The 500mb pattern will return to one that is dominated by the
western Atlantic upper ridge late in the period. The positively
tilted upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will
remain nearly stationary Sunday and then begin to lift northward
into the Great Lakes region by Monday as the strong upper ridge
over the western CONUS remains entrenched and the western
Atlantic ridge builds westward into the Carolinas and
southeastern states.
Again, in the absence of any significant shortwave energy or
triggers for forcing, generally expect a typical summer pattern
with daily diurnally induced scattered showers and
thunderstorms. PWAT values will remain near to slightly above
normal during this period with ensembles continuing to show a
high probability of values greater than 1.5 inches. Rain chances
on Sunday may be slightly higher due to the potential for a
surge in moisture moving inland from the coast as the upper
ridge builds over the western Atlantic.
Temperatures will also remain near normal with highs in the
lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR and IFR restrictions are expected for the majority of the
upcoming period as Tropical Storm Elsa makes its way through the
region.
Currently, TS Elsa is located over south Georgia, and is making its
way northeastward towards central SC. Ahead of it, a broad shield of
rainfall is approaching the region gradually, with widespread
showers preceding that right now. These will make their way over the
region over the coming hours, briefly creating cig/vis restrictions
across the area. I have TEMPO groups at all sites to account for
this. MVFR cigs and IFR cigs are then expected to quickly develop
with Elsa`s approach tonight. These should first develop at AGS/DNL
between 02z and 04z, with IFR cigs developing shortly thereafter.
The timing is similar at CAE/CUB/OGB, with MVFR developing around
03z-05z, with IFR expected thereafter. Widespread, consistent
rainfall is expected to then push into the TAF sites beginning at
AGS/DNL around 06z (maybe slightly earlier), with rain beginning at
CAE/CUB/OGB around 07z. I expect vis to be restricted in the 2sm-3sm
range by the rain during this time as well. Winds will likely be
breezy as the center of circulation approaches between 10z and 12z,
with gusts around 25 knots at OGB, 20 knots at CAE/CUB, and 18z at
AGS/DNL. In short, tonight is not the best night to fly. By tomorrow
morning, the center will be pulling away from the region, but
guidance only gradually removes CIG restrictions. We should see
things improve to MVFR by ~13-15z, with VFR coming by 18z. Rain will
be quick to move on out of the region after the center passes, with
some afternoon showers possible again.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Tropical moisture will continue to
be in place in the wake of Elsa, leading to afternoon diurnal
showers and thunderstorms. Areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled
out during the morning hours starting this weekend, especially
at the typically fog prone locations.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Thursday for SCZ031-037-038-137.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
616 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Fuels for FWZ 304 (southwest Carbon County) were upgraded to
critical this afternoon. Went ahead and added FWZ 304 to the Red
Flag Warning for Thursday and Fire Weather Watch for Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Hi-Res guidance has continued to suggest thunderstorm development
along the lee trough north of the Pine Ridge this afternoon headed
into the evening which prompted SPC to expand their Day 1 Outlook
this morning into the Nebraska Panhandle with a Slight Risk area.
Latest satellite imagery has shown cumulus development since 18z
across Converse and Niobrara Co in Wyoming with a few lightning
strikes and fairly weak radar echos so far. Expecting additional
attempts at CI over east-central Wyoming this afternoon out ahead
of the shortwave riding the northern edge of the ridge over the
four corners region. Upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is available
over the Nebraska Panhandle with 35-45 kts of 0-6km shear as
storms move that way later this afternoon. This should support
supercellular modes with any storms that do develop with fairly
straight line hodographs supporting initial storm splits. Any
right-movers that do sustain themselves afterwards will move
southward into the favorable environment near Sioux and Dawes Co
in Nebraska with hail and downburst winds being the main threat.
Cannot rule out a possible tornado with decent directional shear
present, however LCLs should be fairly high. Severe potential
should be mostly over with by 9 PM MDT, however a few showers with
the shortwave passage are possible across Niobrara Co later this
evening.
Thursday will be warm across most of the region with afternoon
temperatures 90s for most spots. Locations across the North Platte
River Valley from Torrington and east could see triple digits
during the afternoon. Farther west, Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for the Laramie Range and areas west of the mountains
towards south-central Wyoming. RHs 12-15 percent look likely with
gusty winds, however upper level cloud cover could prevent a few
spots from reaching their MaxT potential. Hi-Res guidance has
hinted at the potential for isolated showers in the afternoon,
however kept PoPs fairly low as plenty of uncertainty remains.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Much of the forecast remains on track through this weekend with
minor variations within the overall pattern. Upper level ridging
is expected break down with a series of shortwave troughs digging
easterly across the CWA out ahead of the frontal boundary digging
southward on Friday. As a result, precipitation chances remain
elevated and widespread on Friday with plenty of moisture
advecting into the region. As we move into the early part of the
weekend, the pattern remains fairly active with the development of
a positive tilted trough extending through the Great Plains.
Should see a cool down in the initial weekend temperatures with
most areas never really peaking above 80 degrees as the frontal
boundary continues tracking southward. Combined with a series of
shortwaves expected to periodically pulse across southeastern
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle and a continued swath of
moisture advecting into the region, will see an extention for
widespread precipitation chances through 00Z on Sunday. Severe
potentials appear to be limited both Friday and Saturday with CAPE
values struggling to raise above 500 J/kg on either day.
Nevertheless, should see a lightning strike or two associated with
any system able to develop. Looking into the late weekend and
into next week, quieter weather expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the CWA, returning the region to a warm and
dry pattern. In addition, will start to see an uptick in the
temperatures under this feature, with daytime highs in the upper
80s and mid-90s. Current model guidance indicates some shortwave
disturbances within the upper level ridging, providing slight
chances for afternoon thunderstorms. However, any convective
initiation will ultimately be limited as subsidence is expected to
prevail with upper level ridging remaining overhead and moisture
advection effectively cut off.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 433 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Current radar imagery has a severe thunderstorm tracking
southeasterly across Goshen County, north of Torrington. Radar
estimated hail has reached close to 2.5 inches. Expecting
convective cells developing off the outflow to drop
south/southeasterly into the northern to northeastern portions of
the Nebraska Panhandle, and digging to the southeast across KAIA
through the evening hours. Could see some continued strong to
severe cells with decent environmental conditions conducive for
cell growth as MLCAPE values remain around 1000 J/kg and 40 kts of
0-6 km shear. Main threats will be hail up to 2 inches and strong
downburst winds. However, cannot rule out a tornado or two
associated with any convection. HRRR guidance has been fairly
accurate with storm motion and development, with a slight westward
shift in the location. Due to the uncertainty associated with the
exact location of any convection for the remainder of today, went
ahead and and left VCTS across KBFF, KCDR, and KAIA. Although,
KCDR seems less likely. VFR conditions expected through the
remainder of the forecast period with maybe some gusty conditions
expected tomorrow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Above normal temperatures return to the area Thursday and Friday
that will lead to fairly dry conditions across southeast and
south-central Wyoming. Afternoon RHs will drop to 12-15 percent
each afternoon with wind gusts around 30 MPH out of the west. Red
Flag Warning are in effect Thursday for most locations along and
west of the Laramie Range where fuels have dried out as of early
July. Additionally, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Friday where winds are expected to be slightly stronger ahead of a
cold frontal passage. Slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday
will bring some relief, however areas west of the Laramie Range
look to remain dry again Sunday and headed into early next week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ301-302-
304-305-307>309.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for WYZ305-307-308.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...MD
FIRE WEATHER...MB/MD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
544 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...Update for 00Z TAF Cycle...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected to prevail through forecast period. VCTS
included for KLRU/KDMN until 03Z this evening as scattered
thunderstorms subside. Skies beginning SCT-BKN070CB, becoming
FEW100 after 06Z tonight. Winds 050-080 at 08-12KT subsiding to
04-08KT overnight. TS coverage will be limited to Gila Mountains
on Thursday with no threat to local terminals. Light SE surface
winds will make for a good flying day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...200 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances all but disappear for Thursday and Friday,
except for the Gila. Then on Saturday, moisture returns bringing
thunderstorm chances back into the picture until mid-week next
week when drier air lowers storm chances yet again. Temperatures
will generally be in the 90s with the hottest days Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to linger
across the Four Corners. Weakness along the eastern periphery of
the ridge coupled with orographic lift and diurnal heating will
produce showers and thunderstorms across the mountains first
before spreading to the the inland areas. I`m not expecting
significant widespread showers and storms as was the case
yesterday. However, latest HRRR does suggest that much of the
storms will be confined to areas along the Arizona/New Mexico
border with a few pop-up storms east of the Rio Grande As with any
storms, gusty winds and heavy down pours are expected. The winds
this afternoon will be light to moderate and generally from the
east with the high temps slightly on the cooler side.
Active weather should diminish by early this evening as we loose
daytime heat suggested by latest hi-res models. However, I can`t
rule out a lingering storm or two passing through before midnight
as with the case from the previous nights. Quiet will be in store
the rest of the night with a few clouds hovering over our CWA. The
winds will become light to light and variable during the
overnight hours. With clouds in place, the lows on Thursday
morning will be on the warm.
Fewer storm coverage is anticipated for Thursday as the upper
level ridge begins to strength over our area. Any storms that do
occur will be across the high terrains such the Gila Mountains.
Much of the area will be relatively dry with drier air in place
under the ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Rain chances will be dependent on the position of the summertime
upper high and the moisture stream rotating clockwise around it.
Friday will be a dry day with the high west of the Four Corners
with relatively dry air circulating into the CWA and PW
(Precipitable Water) values dropping below an inch. This will
leave only an outside chance for the Gila.
The high decides to vacation over Vegas and decides to party
there for the remainder of the long-term period. This will keep a
relatively moist flow over the area through Monday with PW values
between 1-1.25". Storm chances will therefore return on Saturday
though with mountain areas favored. Of note, a trough will close
off into a low over the mid-west, and its trailing trough axis may
enhance thunderstorm chances some for Sunday night. Otherwise, it
will be the typical monsoonal pattern of scattered mountain
storms with lowland storms forming off outflows in the late
afternoon and evening.
The high continues its summer vacation over Vegas by Tuesday, but
it will expand its influence over NM and Far West TX. As it does
so, some drier air will arrive dropping PW values below an inch to
finish out the period. Rain chances will drop accordingly. Kept
low pops in for now, but if the present pattern holds, they may
need removal for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period will continue to be at or below
normal. The drier days will be on the warmer side. El Paso will be
close to adding one more 100 to its 2021 total on Saturday. We
drop back below normal Sunday, then start warming again mid-week
as moisture departs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
this evening before drier weather begin to move in across the
area. Expect Thursday and Friday to be mainly dry except with the
possibility of the Gila mountains on Friday afternoon. Moisture
will return this weekend into next week bringing another chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The Min RH`s will be above 30%
today with it dropping to below 30% on Thursday and Friday. The
Min RH`s for this weekend into first half next week should creep
back into the 20 to 30% across the lowlands and 40 to 50% in the
mountains. The vent rate will poor to good through the up coming
weekend and into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 93 72 97 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 66 91 68 96 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 64 91 67 96 / 20 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 46 71 50 75 / 20 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 67 92 71 96 / 20 0 0 0
Silver City 61 86 65 91 / 30 0 10 10
Deming 64 93 66 98 / 30 0 0 0
Lordsburg 67 92 69 97 / 30 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 71 93 72 97 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 65 91 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 68 94 69 97 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 64 85 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 70 94 71 97 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 67 91 68 96 / 20 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 69 90 71 95 / 20 0 0 0
Jornada Range 66 90 68 95 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 66 92 68 98 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 68 91 69 96 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 65 90 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 52 79 55 83 / 20 0 0 0
Mescalero 50 81 55 85 / 20 0 0 0
Timberon 49 77 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 55 85 58 91 / 20 0 0 10
Hillsboro 63 89 66 94 / 30 0 0 0
Spaceport 64 90 67 95 / 20 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 56 88 59 93 / 30 10 10 20
Hurley 60 89 63 94 / 30 0 0 0
Cliff 58 95 61 100 / 20 20 20 20
Mule Creek 62 90 66 95 / 30 20 20 20
Faywood 63 87 66 93 / 30 0 0 0
Animas 65 92 67 98 / 30 0 0 0
Hachita 64 91 66 96 / 20 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 66 90 67 96 / 20 0 0 0
Cloverdale 63 86 65 92 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
32/34/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.AVIATION...
A moist tropical airmass remains over the TAF sites tonight through
Thursday night. SHRA are possible through the period and have VCSH at
KSAT/KSSF at all times being closer to the center of the system with
VCSH at KAUS this evening and on Thursday. Have no mention at KDRT,
although cannot rule out VCSH early this evening and on Thursday.
Only ISOLD TSRA are possible and left out any mention at the sites.
CIGs are already at MVFR at KSSF and will drop to MVFR at KSAT this
evening and KAUS closer to midnight, then spread to KDRT overnight.
CIGs will drop to IFR at the I-35 sites overnight, possibly LIFR
with restrictions to VSBY early in the morning. CIGs slowly rise to
MVFR by midday with DRT becoming SCT. There could be brief breaks at
the I-35 sites for CIGs to briefly become VFR in the afternoon. CIGs
will lower to IFR Thursday night. Easterly winds of 6 to 14 KTs will
prevail with a few gusts to 25 KTs possible mainly at KSAT/KSSF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
At 18z RAP analysis and surface obs depicted a sfc low pressure
center over the east half of the CRP CWA, nearly vertically stacked
with it`s 500 mb counterpart. Onshore flow and strong moisture
convergence are bringing impressive rainfall to portions of the
Coastal Bend, but at this time the more widespread rain has
struggled to push into our Coastal Plains counties. Some "popcorn
shower" activity has impacted the I-35 corridor and portions of the
Hill Country but even the heavier showers are only producing a
quarter inch or so of rain before moving on to the west.
Temperatures remain seasonally cool, in the upper 70s to mid 80s for
the most part though warmer in Val Verde County where they will
creep into the 90s again.
Model consensus drifts the center of the system ever-so-slowly
inland tonight through Thursday night, although there may be some
wobbles back eastward at times. Similar conditions to today will
remain, with highest rain chances locked closer to the gulf but
scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continuing
across much of our area. The exception will be the southern Edwards
Plateau where distance from the low as well as lower PWATS will keep
chances for rain suppressed.
Although CAMS have backed off some on heavy rain potential for our
area over the next 24 hours, some of the more widespread and/or
heavier rain may reach our Coastal Plains counties from time to
time. The HRRR remains bullish on overnight QPF across the far
southeastern corner of the CWA, for example. The Flash Flood Watch
will remain in effect for Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca through Friday
morning, but areas as far north as San Antonio, New Braunfels, and
La Grange should still be in heightened awareness mode through the
end of the week as a precaution since it can`t be ruled out that
some heavier rain sneaks a little further north than the current
forecast suggests and some of these areas are already rather
saturated.
The watch may at some point need to be extended into the daytime
Friday as the NAM and WRF-FV3 depict strong onshore flow and
resultant banding of heavy rain after midnight Thursday night into
Friday morning. This is not supported by the rest of the model
suite, but is worth watching as a potential primary period for
additional flash flood risk in the southern half of our area.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
To start the long term the first issue will be the above mentioned
strong onshore flow resulting in the band of heavier rainfall in the
NAM and WRF-FV3. If this does verify then the heavier hand of
rainfall looks to work west towards the Rio Grande and Eagle Pass
through the middle part of Friday with more scattered showers and
thunderstorms further north. Interestingly the new 12z ECMWF delays
this band of heavier rainfall until Friday evening, but just like the
NAM/WRF-FV3 for the morning hours, the EC is an outlier to the drier
GFS, Canadian, and NAM for the second half of Friday.
Synoptically going into the weekend the ridge across the Four Corners
region will try to build back into Texas while the trough of low
pressure that has been bringing the area rain either shrinks back
west into Mexico (according to the ECMWF and NAM) or moves towards
the Upper Texas Coast (based on the Canadian and GFS). Either way it
looks like the rain chances, and especially the heavy rain chances,
continue to be relegated to mainly the Coastal Plains through the
weekend with some sunshine peaking out for folks across the Edwards
Plateau and the Hill Country.
As the weekend transitions into next week the next large trough of
low pressure will work down across the Central Plains and Great Lakes
Region splitting the ridge across the Western U.S. and the one over
Florida in half. This will be enough to drag a boundary (hesitant to
call it a cold front) down into Texas. Models differ on where the
boundary will set up with the Canadian bringing it south to the I-10
corridor, while the GFS brings it into the Hill Country, and ECMWF
keeps it north. Regardless, it should be close enough to enhance
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms again for the day on
Monday.
By Tuesday morning the trough over the Great Lakes ejects to the
northeast and the pair of ridges work to build back over South
Central Texas. While the moist southeasterly flow off the Gulf will
still be in place the pattern looks to settle down into more of a
typical summer time pattern for the area - afternoon sea breeze
showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Coastal Plains with mostly
sunny skies elsewhere. The good news is that temperatures, even with
the ridge building back in will continue to be below normal, in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Typically we should be in the mid to upper
90s this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 86 73 86 74 / 20 50 20 50 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 85 72 86 73 / 20 50 30 50 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 84 73 86 74 / 30 60 30 60 20
Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 71 85 72 / 10 30 20 40 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 75 90 74 / 10 20 30 50 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 85 72 85 73 / 20 40 20 50 10
Hondo Muni Airport 72 85 73 84 73 / 20 40 30 70 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 71 84 72 86 73 / 30 60 30 50 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 84 74 87 76 / 30 60 30 60 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 73 84 73 85 74 / 30 50 30 70 20
Stinson Muni Airport 74 85 74 86 76 / 30 60 40 70 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for De Witt-Karnes-Lavaca.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
939 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
- Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening
- Fair Weather interlude followed by return of showers
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
It would seem the potential for strong to severe storms has
greatly diminished this evening. While it is true the MU cape is
expected to say between 1000 and 1500 this evening and it actually
rises to over 2000 kg after 3 am as the cold front gets closer.
On the other hand there is not much of a low level jet at this
moment in our area but by 1 am there is 25 kt low level jet north
of HTL, aimed at PLN. that puts southwest Michigan in the speed
divergence at low levels. There is decent FG in the 850 to 700 mb
layer over northern MI during the early morning hours of Thursday.
Meanwhile the upper trough continues to deepen as a 70 knot jet
core digs down the back side of the deepening shortwave trough
(over western WI at 8 am). That will cause the low level jet to
redevelop near or south of I-96 toward morning. The result of all
of this will be the area of showers from here west will slowly
fall apart over the next few hours in favor of convection north of
Route 10 and east of I-75 (where the low level jet focuses). As
the primary cold front head this way we should see an area of
showers/thunderstorms develop near Lake Michigan then head east
cross the CWA around sunrise. Due to the low level inversion in
the boundary layer any thunderstorms would be elevated so I do
not see much of severe threat overnight.
The bottom line is scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be around till after midnight. Then after 3 am or so expect
some showers and thunderstorms to develop west of Muskegon and
that area will cross our CWA between 4 am and 10 am.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
- Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening
We expect the conditions for strong to severe storms to continue
through this evening across the southeast forecast area in the
warm sector ahead of advancing cold front. Sfc based CAPE of 2500
to 3500 J/kg should persist in this area until diurnal loss of
heating. Storm type should be primarily multi-celled clusters as
deep layer shear is less than 30 knots across southern zones. The
exception would be for some transient supercells further north
where shear is greater than 35 knots, and especially in the
vicinity of outflow boundaries.
The severe threat should diminish after sunset as instability
decreases, but some strong storms and a heavy rain threat could
persist overnight and into Thursday morning along the cold front.
The front should clear the eastern zones by afternoon with a
cooler and much drier air mass moving in.
- Fair Weather interlude followed by return of showers
Canadian high pressure brings a welcome spell of cooler and drier
weather late Thursday into Saturday. A blocking pattern develops
over the weekend with Michigan in between an upper low to our west
and an upper high over the SE CONUS. As the upper low slowly
moves northeast, an overrunning pattern could bring some showers
on Saturday. A warm front could bring higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms across Lower Michigan from late Sunday into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
There is a large area of IFR cigs near and just north of I-96.
That is the cold air dome slowly trying to sink south and west
over time. The problem is through is that there is another wave on
the front pushing eastward. Given there is a large area of showers
just west of Lake Michigan moving east associated with that wave
on the front. My thinking is the low clouds will spread over our
CWA within the next few hours and that is supported by the RAP
model cloud forecast. Once the low clouds move in they may be hard
to push out since the front does seem to want to be farther south
tomorrow.
As for convection, the initial wave of convection is moving out
of the area but a second area is following it. The question
becomes is there enough instability to create thunderstorms. It
seems while the storms would be elevated in nature, there surly
could be. However given this is at night when this is coming
through, seems showers are more likely than thunderstorms. So I
did not put VCTS in any of the TAFs overnight. The time frame for
this second wave of showers to move through is roughly 02z to 09z.
The bottom line is I expect all of our TAF sites to be either IFR
or low MVFR by morning and I do not seem much improvement during
the day Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
Wind gusts over 30 knots in thunderstorms are possible through
this evening across Lake Michigan south of Grand Haven. North
winds can be expected on Thursday and may gust to 25 knots with
some choppy waves along the Big and Little Sable points.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Elsa will pass quickly north through Georgia and
the Carolinas through Thursday resulting in gusty winds and heavy
showers for parts of the piedmont. Following this, an active mid-
summertime pattern will develop by the weekend with a chance for
showers and pulse thunderstorms each day into the early part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM: Another area of showers pushing into the
southern/southwestern zones, slowly expanding north. The rest of
the area is only seeing isolated showers attm. The 00z guidance that
is coming in, and the latest HRRR all show similar track/evolution
of Elsa as before, so the forecast looks on track.
Shower chances ramp back up overnight as Elsa tracks toward the
area. Expect widespread showers and isolated storms across most
of the area. With the center of Elsa tracking closer to our area,
expect wind speed and gusts to pick up late tonight and continue
through the morning. Strongest winds will be across and east of the
I-77 corridor, but nothing close to tropical storm winds expected
for our area as the better wind field will be east of the track.
Heavy rain continues to be the main threat, especially with the
track closer to our area. PW values over 2 inches are expected
to move in from the south. The axis of heaviest QPF has shifted
west but the heaviest rainfall is expected to be to our east. The
heaviest rainfall for our area is expected over Union, NC with a
quick drop off east and north of there. Can`t rule out some isolated
flooding over the eastern portion of the CLT Metro area. However,
potential coverage and overall flood chance precludes the issuance
of a watch for now. Finally, the track of the storm is still not the
most favorable for tropical tornadoes. However, the guidance does
indicate a brief uptick in 0-1 km helicity and shear as the center
moves by. Surface, mixed level, and most unstable CAPE are all at a
minima during that time as it will be near the 12Z time frame. This
limits the overall threat, but will need to be watched in real time.
Elsa quickly moves northeast away from the area Thursday afternoon,
bringing an end to the tropical threats. Precip chances taper off
quickly from west to east as well. There will be lingering low
level moisture and developing instability with heating during the
afternoon. So scattered diurnal convection could return. Highs
will be below normal with morning clouds and precip, but muggy
conditions will continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday: Elsa`s circulation is progged to be
downstream of even the NE cwfa by sunset Thursday leaving our
sensible wx to just dissipating diurnal mountain deep convection.
The next synoptic scale feature of limited interest to affect the
region will be a weak cold front which is progged to ripple through
on Friday. With at least some frontal band forcing present within a
plume of developing moderate instability cvrg of storms should
blossom to numerous as the day wears on. With subtle troughiness in
the upper pattern continuing into Saturday along with developing
lee trough, there would seem to be little to inhibit deep convective
cvrg becoming numerous again. Temperatures through the period will
be within a category of the mid-summer climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: Upper heights atop the SE CONUS will
begin rising on Sunday and continue into Monday as blocking Bermuda
hipres builds wwd. Within the decent southerly convergent flow
between the Plains system and offshore anticyclone, expect daily
diurnally enhanced numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the axis
of the stout anticyclone pressing a bit further west on Tuesday and
Wednesday, more in the way of solid Piedmont lower 90s for max
temperatures is expected, and daily diurnal thunderstorms should
become more scattered in nature.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: a lull in convection is expected over
the next few hours, before another round of mainly tropical rain
bands/showers begin to work in from the south with the approach
of Elsa. Going with VCSH this evening, then prevailing SHRA with
Elsa. Winds will gradually back from southerly to easterly, then
northeasterly overnight, as cigs lower. Guidance has trended less
pessimistic on cigs, but still showing MVFR to IFR possible Thursday
morning. The heaviest rain bands should affect KCLT, mainly in the
09-15z time frame. Winds will be gustiest at that time as well. By
midday, Elsa will begin to exit to the east/northeast and we should
see improving cigs and a break in precip. Afternoon showers and
tstms will be possible, mainly across the mountains, being more
isolated to the east. Will carry PROB30 for TSRA for tomorrow
aftn. Winds will become lighter and turn to NW, then SW in the aftn.
Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with mainly diurnal convection and
morning stratus/fog, is expected to persist into the weekend.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT High 100% Low 59% Med 77% Med 73%
KGSP High 97% Low 52% Med 61% High 100%
KAVL High 94% Low 45% Med 67% High 100%
KHKY High 100% Med 60% Med 65% Med 71%
KGMU High 95% Low 46% Low 57% High 100%
KAND High 87% Med 65% Med 63% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1035 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will form along a cold front Thursday bringing
potentially heavy rain Thursday night into Friday morning with a
focus on the mountains. Tropical Storm Elsa will be in the
vicinity of Cape Cod Friday, accelerating towards Nova Scotia
Friday night potentially bringing another round of heavy
rainfall. Drying trend is expected over the weekend as weak high
pressure builds over the Northeast. Ridging is expected to
continue to build into midweek next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast at this
time. Have blended in the HRRR a bit more to take in account for
the possibility of thunder with heavy downpours moving into
southwestern NH between 06z and 08z. Severe weather is not
expected with this but of the line survives there could be some
torrential downpours and frequent lightning.
610 PM Update...Have updated the forecast, mainly for PoPs based
on latest trends in observational data. A couple of storms may
occasionally hug the NH/MA border for another hour or two but
forcing for ascent will remain rather weak across the rest of
the forecast area this evening so have lowered PoPs. The only
caveat is the last few runs of the HRRR which bring a convective
line into SW NH around 06-07z. This is an outlier at this time,
with the convection across western PA having a long way to go to
get here. Will monitor trends regardless.
Previously...
A frontal boundary is currently draped near the NH/MA border with
lowering dewpoints and ample cloud cover to the north of the
boundary covering much of the forecast area. This boundary is
providing a focus for thunderstorms that are currently developing
near Albany, New York and similar to yesterday strong to severe
storms are expected to develop through this evening primarily south
of the NH/MA border into southern New England. Latest RAP
analysis does bring 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE into extreme
southern New Hampshire along with about 35 knots of effective
shear. Given the latest radar and satellite trends the window
for strong to severe storms is closing across southern New
Hampshire but cannot rule out a couple strong storms here
through sunset this evening. Further north instability drops off
quickly limiting the chances for thunder north of a line from
KEEN to KPSM with isolated scattered showers over the southern
third of the area through this evening.
Convection will wane after sunset with the stalled frontal boundary
sinking south over southern New England tonight. Cooler and drier
air will work into the area overnight from the north allowing for
lows to drop into the ow 50s north to low 60s south. Renewed
chances for rain will increase across south New Hampshire during
the pre-dawn hours as an mid level trough approaches from the
west acting upon the frontal boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will be stalled across southern New England
Thursday morning with waves of low pressure tracking along the
boundary. Aloft, a trough at 500 mb will be moving through the
Great Lakes with attendant surface low tracking through the St
Lawrence Valley through Thursday night. This low will lift the
stalled boundary northward as a warm front while drawing in deep
tropical moisture from Elsa with PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2
inches by Thursday evening. Expect Thursday to start off
relatively cool and cloudy with chances for rain to increase
from west to east into Thursday afternoon. Highs will generally
be in the 60s with some low 70s across southern New Hampshire.
As mentioned in previous discussions the ingredients remain for
a predecessor moderate to heavy rain event Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning. Now that we are deeper into the window of
mesoscale models there is an emerging consensus that the
heaviest rain will be focused our west and north across the
Adirondacks into southeast Quebec as the 500 mb trough tries to
go negative tilt. Current QPF forecast for Thursday through
Thursday night, before the arrival of Elsa, ranges for around a
half inch near the coast to 1.5 inches in the mountains.
However, there is still some room for this axis of heaviest rain
to shift and for more details regarding dynamics, rainfall
rates, and hydrologic concerns please see the Hydrology section
below.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
All eyes shift towards the tropical storm Elsa as we head into
the early portions of the extended forecast. 12Z operational and
ensemble solutions suggest a continued westward shift in the
track of Elsa as it move up the southern New England coastline
Friday morning with the 12Z Euro remaining at the western
portion of the track envelop. Bands of heavy showers will enter
the region during the day. High precipitable water values as
well as a strong and dynamic jet aloft may lead to very high
rainfall rates Friday and Friday evening as the system tracks
along or near the coast of New Hampshire and Maine. Precipitable
water values are expected to exceed 2 inches over southern areas
for a period on Friday.
This early season tropical system may allow for flash flooding
to occur over portions of the region. The highest threat
locations will be dependent on the exact track of the system.
Heavy showers will continue into the early evening hours as the
system exits into eastern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.
Plenty of low level moisture in its wake may allow for patchy
fog to develop.
Gusty winds will accompany the system. The Euro ensemble mean
continues to show the highest wind gusts along the Midcoast
region of Maine. Winds may gust over 35 mph in this region,
however this is highly dependent on the storm track.
A lingering trough to our west may allow for a few scattered
showers for the remainder of the night, however rainfall
intensity should be diminishing during the period.
Relatively dry conditions will enter the region over the
weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from Canada.
Thereafter, a slow moving trough will approach the region during
the early to midweek period, allowing for scattered showers to
start out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR tonight with relatively high cigs,
although cigs may lower to MVFR at KLEB and KHIE in the pre-dawn
hours as rain develops from west to east. VFR with transitions
to MVFR and then to IFR/LIFR through the day Wednesday as rain
continues to spread west to east with IFR/LIFR likely persisting
into Friday morning.
Long Term...LIFR conditions in low clouds and heavy rainfall on
Friday as Elsa crosses the region. There could be a few rumbles
of thunder. Gusty winds are possible, mainly along the Midcoast
region such as KRKD. Fog will develop during the evening hours.
Conditions will improve by Saturday morning to VFR. A few
showers are possible at times on Saturday, but otherwise
primarily VFR conditions are expected Saturday through early
next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
through Thursday night. Easterly winds will increase Thursday,
but will generally stay at or below 20 kts Thursday afternoon
as low pressure tracks through the St Lawrence Valley and Elsa
approaches form the south.
Long Term...Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to pass through the
Gulf of Maine Friday afternoon and evening, possibly bringing
strong gusty winds to the waters Friday afternoon and evening.
Seas will build as the storm approaches. Both the height of the
seas and strength of the winds will depend on the exact track of
the storm, which remains uncertain at this time. A broad trough
will cross the waters on Saturday, with ridging building in on
Sunday through early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for localized flash flooding is
possible late Thursday into Friday, especially on Friday as
moisture from TC Elsa advects into the region. The river flood
threat is low as ongoing drought conditions have lowered
streamflows and area watersheds have large storage capacity. All
large scale models show mid/upper level trough deepening to our
west and our mid level flow shifting from zonal to SW on
Thursday. Showers will increase in coverage as the deeper
moisture arrives over the region. Heating could support higher
rainfall rates > 3"/hour in any scattered thunderstorms as PWATs
climb to 1.75". By Thursday night the anticyclone curved 250 mb
jet of 80-100 kt will be located across southern Canada,
placing the right rear quadrant over VT/NH and NW ME.
Meanwhile the developing nose of the 850 mb jet around 40 kt
will move into NH by early Friday morning.
The upper and mid level flows become more southerly Thursday
night with PWATs approaching 2.0" (>90th percentile for early
July, almost 2 SDs above normal). In our favor is the
decreasing thunderstorm cover overnight, however any
thunderstorms (even in modest instability) could easily support
torrential high rainfall rates (>5"/hr instantaneous rates).
Best rain chances during Thursday night into Friday morning will
be associated with the coverage on heavy rain on the Midcoast.
Other models keep Elsa further offshore pulling portions of the
forecast area under subsidence. This would limit rainfall
amounts for much of southern and eastern Maine. Event total
rainfall will be dependent on convection development on
Thursday/Thursday night, and then the ultimate track of Elsa for
Friday. Will favor highs amounts in NH/NW ME on
Thursday/Thursday night given better dynamics with the upper
level jet, and for Friday having the highest QPF along the
coast.
Will follow HPC and WPC guidance at this stage favoring their
Elsa track. Any slight shift in Elsa`s track could increase or
decrease rainfall totals.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1126 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to weaken to a depression as it
moves through central South and North Carolina on Thursday.
Breezy winds, locally heavy rain, and even isolated tornadoes
may occur. Typical summer weather is expected behind Elsa for
the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and humid
conditions continuing into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
All Tropical Storm Watches in effect across the coastal ILM CWA
have been upgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings. See the various
Tropical Statements issued by the ILM and NHC offices.
The POPs and cloudiness across the ILM CWA have been updated to
account for the flare up of convection on the Southeast Side of
Elsa as it lifts northeastward overnight into daylight Thu. Min
temps have been upped by 2 to 4 degrees to account for the
moisture laden tropical air invading the ILM CWA once the mid-
upper s/w ridge axis lifts entirely north of the FA early on
during the pre-dawn Thu hrs. QPF overnight has been also
upped to account for a slight earlier arrival of the pcpn.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated storms will continue to push inland along what`s left of
the enhanced sea breeze this evening and should push north of the
area by tonight. The slow storm motion may lead to a few areas of
heavy rainfall with a low chance of localized flooding. Rain starts
to spread northward this evening with the approach of Tropical Storm
(and eventual Tropical Depression) Elsa. Outerbands should start to
impact the area tonight and SPC has outlined areas of coastal SC in
a Slight Risk for the risk of isolated tornadoes. Per their
discussion (and we agree), the outerbands should start lifting
northward and there is some uncertainty on how these will interact
with the Gulf Stream and the associated instability overnight. The
severe threat is likely to continue into Thursday morning with the
outerbands moving onshore along the SC and NC coastline. In these
areas, we could see the potential for brief tornadic cells, although
current parameters suggest any tornadoes would be weak and brief.
Elsa`s track continues to push further inland and the latest
forecast has it as a Tropical Depression as it pushes just west of
the area. We have maintained a Tropical Storm Warning along our SC
counties and coastal waters along with a Tropical Storm Watch in our
NC coastal areas and coastal waters. The thinking here is that the
storm will produce bands of convection over the waters and bring a
few isolated wind gusts to tropical storm strength or above. Gusty
winds are also possible along the I-95 corridor.
Conditions begin to improve late Thursday into Thursday evening as
any lingering showers move through the area with little to no
additional QPF. Skies clear Thursday night with overnight lows in
the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Elsa should be well north of the area Friday, but a tropical and
very humid airmass will linger across the Carolinas. SBCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, the seabreeze boundary, and the approach of
a weak shortwave during the afternoon should yield scattered
showers and t-storms with 40-50 percent coverage. There
shouldn`t be a significant severe weather potential with bulk
shear around 10 knots, but depending on how much rain falls
Thursday with Elsa there could be an isolated lingering flooding
potential. Friday`s highs are expected to reach the lower 90s
inland with upper 80s on the beaches.
Saturday`s forecast remains a bit unclear with large model-to-
model variation in moisture depth behind Friday`s shortwave.
While I`ll continue with persistence and show a 30-40 percent
chance of mainly afternoon showers and t-storms, this may need
to be trended downward if the 12z NAM`s idea of precipitable
water plunging below 1.5 inches gains more widespread model
support. Saturday`s high should again reach the lower 90s inland
with upper 80s on the beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all agree on the evolution of a
retrograding upper ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast early next
week. Drier and warmer air aloft within the ridge may reduce the
number of showers and t-storms around, especially near the coast
on Monday and Tuesday. An upper trough over the southern Great
Lakes would normally be expected to move eastward and increase
rain chances, but the ridge appears to remain strong enough to
prevent any influence from the trough east of the Appalachians.
Otherwise the only story next week will be typical mid-July
heat with highs in the 90s and heat indices near 100 degrees
each day.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short/wave ridging will lift north of Southeast NC this evening.
This will allow tropical moisture to invade Northeast SC and
Southeast NC during the pre-dawn Thu hrs and continuing well
into daylight Thu. Expect deteriorating flight rules, with
MVFR/IFR conditions likely dominating the terminals during the
pre-dawn Thu hrs, 1st the SC terminals then the NC ones by
daybreak Thu via latest HRRR model. Have included a 6hr PROB30
group during daylight Thu for all terminals due to the thunder
and wind gust to 40+ kt threats as Elsa accelerates
northeastward, remaining west of all terminals.
Extended Outlook...Residual MVFR/IFR in the wake of Elsa
Thursday evening but should improve to just diurnally driven
convection Friday through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. With less coverage late in the period due to the
expansion of the mid/upper level ridging from off the Atlantic.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday Night...
With Elsa passing west of the waters during Thursday southerly flow
will increase and is expected to be gusty at times especially near
any bands of convection that pivot by. Elsa will lift farther away
from the waters by Thursday afternoon, which will allow the winds to
veer to a southwesterly direction. The fetch will likely lead to
seas of 6 to 7 ft by Thursday afternoon. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are expected this morning, then a pause in storms
this afternoon. The coverage of storms is expected to increase
across the waters late tonight, and Thursday in conjunction with
Elsa moving across the Carolinas. As Elsa exits the region on
Thursday night, winds will gradually decrease along with
significant sea height.
Friday through Monday...
With Elsa moving well north of the area by Friday, the main
influences on our winds will become Bermuda High Pressure well
offshore and lower pressures across the Mid Atlantic states.
Southwesterly winds are expected to continue over the weekend
into early next week. Seas should average 4-5 feet Friday in a
5-6 second southerly wind wave. By Monday seas should fall to
3-4 feet, balanced between an 8 second southeast swell and 4
second wind chop. A typical summertime pattern for showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop with most marine storm activity
expected to develop at night, shifting inland during the days.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054-056.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056.
Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
Thursday evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ105>110.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108-
110.
Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
Thursday evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
952 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have come to an end over much
of the forecast area this evening. A warm and humid night expected
again tonight, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Have made some
very minor adjustments to temperatures on the east side of I-55
corridor to account for more cloud cover. Other than that,
forecast is on track overall and no major updates are anticipated
at this time.
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Thursday: Scattered showers and storms will likely
continue into tonight, with coverage diminishing after late
evening. Lows tonight drop into the lower 70s F with some upper
60s F to near 70 F minimums likely over eastern MS along and north
of the I-20 corridor. A broad trough axis, responsible in part
for sending Elsa well east of us, will help keep rain chances a
bit higher than seasonal with most places seeing showers and
storms at some point this evening through Thursday. With the
trough being in a slightly less favorable/more easterly position
Thursday, rain chances may be slightly lower than we saw Wednesday
with upper heights slightly rising. This should result in a
warmer day, with much of the area reaching near or just above 90
F. /86/
Thursday night through Tuesday: Thursday wl still have a
moist airmass in place with lower 70F dew points and a PWAT around
two inches. Our CWA will also be in the weak spot between a
591dam ridge from the west and a 591dam ridge across the northeast
Gulf. The convection of the day should see a distinct diurnal
trend and dissipate early in the evening. Friday a 1020mb surface
ridge will be along the Gulf coast. This will help maintain our
low level moisture and daytime heating will set off another round
of scattered to numerous storms. Saturday the mid level ridge from
the west will become more dominant over our region and result in
less coverage of convection. Sunday models remain in good
agreement that the mid level ridge to our west will weaken while a
northern stream shortwave trough dives over the Plains. This
shortwave trough is expected to close off a low over the mid
Mississippi valley and help drive a cold front into our western
zones by evening. Rain chances will increase Sunday ahead of the
cold front. A few strong storms along with heavy rainfall will be
likely in our western zones Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday
the closed low will be lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes
region while upper level troughing lingers over our CWA. The cold
front looks to stall across the CWA and become the focus for
convection Monday into Tuesday. Morning lows will be near normal
through the period but afternoon highs will be held cooler than
normal over through much of the period. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Problematic forecast with widespread convection at the end of day
reinforcing llvl moisture and potential for low cigs/vis
restrictions. HRRR a little spotty with the IFR conditions through
the overnight, and may end up oscillating early on before
deteriorating after 04Z. Persistence supports an MVFR/IFR
overnight. Back to scattered showers tomorrow afternoon with a
little less coverage expected per the latest model runs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 72 90 73 86 / 25 58 21 56
Meridian 69 88 70 87 / 42 65 23 61
Vicksburg 72 90 73 87 / 25 50 21 50
Hattiesburg 72 89 73 85 / 33 52 22 65
Natchez 71 88 71 83 / 27 49 23 58
Greenville 72 91 71 88 / 23 44 18 37
Greenwood 71 91 71 90 / 24 53 21 44
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
HJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
733 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 418 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough
into the western Great Lakes. A trailing shortwave trough
approaching Upper Michigan and Lake Superior and 700-300 qvector
conv supported some lingering isold/sct -shra over the east half of
Upper Michigan. However, the main frontal boundary, baroclinic zone
and associated fgen remained well to the south. Otherwise, Vis
satellite loop showed clouds over most of the rest of the area
except the Keweenaw.
Tonight, expect the rest of the showers to only gradually diminish
as the mid level trough amplifies but the moisture and stronger
forcing slides to the east. Clearing over the northwest half and
favorable radiational cooling overnight will allow temps to drop off
into the lower 40s over the inland west half while clouds maintain
temps in the lower south and east.
Thursday, decreasing clouds over the east half will result in mostly
sunny skies across west and central Upper Michigan. 850 mb temps in
the 8C to 10C range will support highs from the mid 60s north to the
lower 70s south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
The long term period starts off cool and tranquil with a warming
trend this weekend into next week. Diurnal shower/thunderstorm
chances increase early next week as temperatures warm above seasonal
normals. Synoptic scale precipitation chances increase by the middle
to end of next week, but the heaviest precipitation may stay to
our south. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures appears
likely for mid-July with cooler air masses staying well to our
north/northwest.
Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place at 00Z Friday as a
shortwave trough tracks east away from the area. A cool and very dry
air mass will be in place across the CWA as a fairly weak 1016 mb
surface ridge builds over the area. This cool and dry air mass
lingers over the CWA within east/northeasterly low level flow
through this weekend. A diurnal shower or two is possible near Lake
Michigan on Sunday afternoon, but most of the area will have a
gorgeous weekend with abundant sunshine, max temperatures around
80F, and low humidity.
Forecaster confidence decreases on Monday as a pair of disturbances
approach the area. A weak surface low in the mid-MS valley begins
lifting north/northeast on Monday as a low-amplitude trough
tracks across the Canadian Prairies. The track of this surface low
will be dictated by the strength of the Canadian trough and a
blocking ridge along the East Coast. If the surface low tracks
near our CWA then some light stratiform rain will be possible
across the east. Even if this wave misses our area southwesterly
low level flow ahead of the Canadian trough advects a warmer and
more moist air mass into the area. Increasing moisture results in
diurnal precipitation chances on Monday/Tuesday with perhaps more
widespread precipitation on Wednesday/Thursday. Otherwise, above
normal temperatures are expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
VFR conditions will continue thru this fcst period at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 418 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
Winds to around 15-20 knots over the west end and south will
gradually diminish as high pressure moves in the gradient weakens.
Light winds, generally blo 15 knots, are expected through the
weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB