Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
613 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Most convective activity continues in eastern NM but convection
allowing models (CAMs) indicating that this activity will shift
westward to central portions of the state this evening. Sct-num
showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish after 07/06Z as a
convective cluster over central NM slides south out of the forecast
area. Dry air aloft from the Great Basin is forecast to move in from
the north and northwest Wednesday, keeping what convection does
develop across the northern and central NM rather weak. Stronger
storms are forecast for the southwest and south-central mts Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...348 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue in most
areas of northern and central New Mexico through this evening. The
exception will be in northwestern parts of the state where drier air
will keep storms from becoming very widespread. Many storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall this evening, and in
eastern areas of the state a few storms may turn strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds. Drier air will slowly expand over
northern New Mexico on Wednesday and then over more of the state into
Thursday and Friday. This will lead to less thunderstorm activity
each afternoon, but still a few isolated or scattered storms will be
possible over the southwestern and northern high country.
Temperatures will warm up during this stretch, especially in the
northwestern corner of the state where Farmington could reach the
triple digits by Friday. A moist front will arrive this weekend with
increased thunderstorm activity expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Showers and thunderstorms have gotten an early start, mainly along
the central mountain chain and across northeast New Mexico. With
healthy MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear forecast to become more
favorable in the 30 kt range towards the late afternoon/early evening
hours across northeast and east central NM, a few storms may briefly
become strong to severe. Large hail, strong wind gusts, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning will be the main hazards associated with
these storms.
As the upper-high moves further westward along the southern
UT/northern AZ border, the steering flow stays weak. Storm motion
will generally be 5-15 mph to the south-southwest. Combined with,
PWAT`s of 1-1.5" on already saturated soil, the threat continues for
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the southeastern
half of the state. CAMs are showing convection lasting into the
overnight hours along and east of the central mountain chain. The
HRRR and HREF in agreement that an outflow boundary will increase
east winds through the middle Rio Grande Valley.
By Wednesday, the high becomes centered over CA/NV/UT/AZ. Drier air
begins to filter in from the north and gets wrapped around the high.
Thus, storm coverage will be slightly less tomorrow. But, with storm
movements 5-15 mph, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. With
the downtick in storm coverage, temperatures will warm a degree or
two across western, northern, and eastern areas tomorrow. The high
begins to enlarge and elongate by Wednesday night.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The upper high will stay positioned west of the Four Corners on
Thursday with little movement expected into Friday. In addition, the
center of the high will be strengthening to about 597 decameters by
late Friday, and this will keep a large swath of dry air rotating
southward into NM with declining PWATs. Much of the forecast area
will fall within a 0.6 to 1.0 inch range, and while isolated to
scattered storms are still expected to redevelop each day over the
mountains (generally stretching from the southwestern to northern
peaks), the coverage will definitely be reduced with less threat of
locally heavy rainfall. The other concern for this Thursday to Friday
time frame will be rising temperatures, particularly over the
northwest plateau where readings will once again exceed 100 degrees.
The high will sidestep farther west late Friday night into Saturday
with an upper low dropping into the central plains. This will send a
backdoor cold front into northeastern NM through the day Saturday,
and the boundary will likely spill into the Rio Grande valley
Saturday evening. Surface dewpoints will already be in the mid 50`s
over most of the NM plains on Friday, rising into the upper 50`s and
low 60`s by Saturday with a hint of mid level moisture advection as
well. This along with upslope flow will yield a better crop of storms
on Saturday afternoon in northeastern zones, expanding southwestward
into Saturday night and Sunday as the front progresses toward the
Continental Divide.
The upper high will decrease in strength a bit by Monday and Tuesday,
staying west southwest of the Four Corners. Moisture will continue to
be recycled early next week with scattered to numerous storms
still favoring a southwest to northeast axis over NM, but inching
slightly westward each day. Meanwhile surface winds veer more
southerly, and temperatures will stay near to slightly below average.
31/52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions are expected this week. Showers
and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will continue through the evening and possibly the
overnight hours across eastern New Mexico. Frequent lightning and
gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns, but large hail is
also a possibility. Storm motions will be slow at 5-10 mph and to the
south-southwest. But, storm coverage will start to tick downward
over the next several days, as the high remains to our west and drier
air begins to filter in. Northwestern NM will miss out on most of
the action and will be approaching record temperatures towards the
end of the work week. A backdoor front on Saturday will allow
moisture to increase, as storm coverage ticks up again through early
next week.
31
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
927 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Cold front has dropped just south of our CWA late this evening...
focusing the stronger convection south of our CWA as well. Some
locations south of our area have received quite a bit of
rainfall...and flood headlines have been issued in response.
Closer to home...all storms have been sub-severe so far this
evening...and will likely remain so as the cold front...
instability axis and strong bulk shear values remains south of
our area overnight. Rainfall across portions of our southern CWA
so far has been around a half to one inch...with northern areas
just receiving some spotty light rain. Larger area of more steady
rainfall is approaching from the west...so certainly expect
better rainfall totals into the overnight hours. Temps will be a
bit cooler overnight in the wake of the cold front. Overnight lows
will cool into the 50s across most of our CWA.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
...Numerous to widespread showers with some t-storms tonight...
High Impact Weather Potential...Locally heavy rain, mainly near
and south of M-72. Gusty winds with some t-storms in southern
areas.
A cool front is a bit south of TVC-APN, and advancing southward.
Higher clouds have thickened in central and northern areas, and
when combined with cool advection, surface temps have fallen off
from earlier in the day. In the south though, W Branch and OSC are
both near 90f, and a cu field continues to percolate there.
However, SPC mesoanalysis suggests we are struggling to muster
500j/kg of Mlcape here, with nearly 50j/kg of Cin. More
widespread showers are seen to our w, and a bit of deep convection
is starting to regenerate in central WI.
Cold front will stall out along a MKG-PHN line tonight. Sw 900mb
winds of 20-30kt will be found in the warm sector tonight, though
those winds will tend to veer with time. This, when combined with
heights falls as broader troffing forms overhead (and a sharper
upper trof takes shape in the upper MS Valley), will support an
increasing precip threat tonight. An instability gradient will
skirt the southern border of the forecast area, with some 1.5-2k
J/kg of MuCape poised over southern lower MI. Best chance for
thunder tonight by far will be in southern sections.
Still a chance for diurnal activity to pop in se sections this
afternoon/early evening. Though current Cins down there are
excessive, cooling aloft is progged for the rest of the afternoon.
CAMs (including HRRR and Rap) still tend to produce isolated
convection in the se later today. Better precip chances by far
arrive from the west later on, initially pushing into Leelanau-MBL
areas toward and after 6 pm, and expanding from there.
SPC has returned a marginal svr risk to places near/south of a
Frankfort-Gladwin line, which is fine I suppose for this evening.
Shear is ramping up, even as convection will become more elevated
as storms in WI move east, the front gets further south, and we
get past peak diurnal heating. Damaging winds will be the main
threat.
Best chance of more persistent heavier rainfall rates will be
with convection riding the instability gradient across central
lower MI. The best heavy rain threat is likely just south of this
forecast area. However, localized 1-2" rainfall totals are
possible along the M-55 counties and south, but can`t be ruled
out up toward M-72.
Min temps from near 50f Chippewa Co to the lower 60s near MBL and
south of Gladwin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
...More Welcomed Rainfall...
High impact weather: Locally heavy rainfall possible.
The front that is currently stalled out across southern lower
Michigan will be the focus for showers and possible embedded thunder
(starting tonight) on into Wednesday and even into part of the day
Thursday as waves of low pressure move up along the front.
Precipitable waters running between 1.50 and 1.75 inches will lead
to possible heavy rainfall (wpc day 1 marginal risk). Additional
rainfall amounts exceeding an inch are likely across parts of
northern lower with lesser amounts closer to a quarter of an inch
farther north. There could be some elevated embedded instability
driven thunder as well (but nothing severe is anticipated). Drier
air sinking southward late Wednesday night through the day Thursday
should diminish activity from north to south. Some cloudiness may
linger into the day Friday. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool
with highs only in the 60s for both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in
the more seasonable mid 70s return Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
...Nice Weekend Weather Expected...
High impact weather potential: None is expected.
Extended guidance continues to keep moisture from a cutoff upper
level trough buried in the northern Tennessee Valley/southern Ohio
Valley region through much if not all of the weekend. After
collaborating with surrounding offices, will not include pops during
that time despite the blend chance pops. Do not want to send a
seemingly false message (of rain) to the public when guidance
supports a dry forecast. This system is eventually shown to meander
north into the western Great Lakes early next week which is when
there will be better chances for showers and possible storms.
Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal levels through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Slow-moving cold front currently located from near MBL to Saginaw
Bay will continue southward into Southern Lower Michigan tonight
and Wednesday. Deep moisture will continue to ride up and over
this boundary...producing widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms tonight thru Wednesday. Cigs and vsbys will
deteriorate as a result...dropping from VFR this evening to IFR
overnight...with some improvement to low MVFR on Wednesday.
Surface winds will shift to the NE and eventually east behind the
cold front...and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts
on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
A cool front will continue to gradually slip south of the area.
Somewhat gusty nw winds will veer n, ne, and e into Wednesday.
Advisory-level winds and/or waves are expected on all waters for
at least part of this afternoon, tonight, and Wednesday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1023 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
So far, expectations remain on track this evening. The large
expanse of stratus clouds has not relented, and severe
thunderstorms have remained to the west and south of the state.
For this updated, HRRR and RAP temperatures were blended into the
forecast through tomorrow morning, as those are the only models
that are coming close to capturing the observed cloud cover.
UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
The cloud cover forecast for the near term is quite challenging.
An extensive deck of broken stratus across most of North Dakota
has been reinforced by Canadian high pressure and easterly upslope
flow all day. Typically in early July we would see the clouds
break up during the afternoon. But this did not occur, and recent
satellite trends show no signs of cloud dissipation. Recent runs
of the RAP are holding onto cloud cover across much of western and
south central North Dakota through tomorrow morning. While this
solution is far from guaranteed, it feels like the most likely
outcome at this time, and the forecast has been heavily trended
toward a cloudier solution through the night. This also results in
a slight warming of forecast low temperatures tonight, mainly
south and west of the Missouri River. There is greater uncertainty
on how long the cloud cover will hold over north central North
Dakota. Even the most aggressive guidance reduces sky cover there
later this evening, but current satellite trends aren`t promising.
Isolated severe thunderstorms have formed far off to the west over
central Montana. Another severe storm is located closer to home
in northwest South Dakota, but is tracking southward. Meanwhile, a
recent surface observation from Estevan, SK shows that very light
rain is falling from the reflectivity passing over the area.
Lightning is not expected with this activity. The severe storms
over central Montana will continue to progress south and east this
evening, but will be entering a far more stable air mass as they
approach the border. Nevertheless, there is a slight chance for a
storm or two to sneak across the border later tonight, though they
should be much weaker by the time they would arrive.
Additionally, new development of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms may occur closer to the early morning hours tomorrow
over parts of southwest North Dakota in response to weak mid
level energy overriding an area of increasing low level warm air
advection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
A chance of thunderstorms tonight in the west is the main hazard
in the short term period.
In the upper levels, generally westerly flow was analyzed across
the northern tier of the United States with a trough over the
Northern Plains and embedded shortwaves within a speed max over
the Northern Rockies. A stationary baroclinic zone in the lower
levels was placed from north central Montana into western South
Dakota. Further east, high pressure was placed across North Dakota
as the previous surface low and cold front was now well to the
south. Under the subsidence inversion of the high pressure,
clouds have been reluctant to clear early this afternoon and may
continue to linger into the evening, though still gradually
clearing. Clouds may persist longest in the west under continued
easterly upslope flow.
Late tonight, the upper level speed max noses eastward,
which should initiate thunderstorms along the aforementioned
baroclinic zone. The placement of this initiation zone, as well
as relatively richer moisture, mid-level lapse rates, and MUCAPE
favors areas west of the state. However, there is a potential for
possibly stronger thunderstorms over far western North Dakota as
the eastern periphery of the instability axis nudges into the
state after 06Z. Forecast soundings just east of the Montana
border show around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 50 kts of cloud layer
shear, sufficient for severe hail. But this parameter space drops
off quickly in the environment further east into the North Dakota
side. While there is a decent chance for a few non-severe
thunderstorms in the west overnight, there is also a non- zero
chance for severe thunderstorms as well with this setup, though
low enough to refrain from elevating messaging until observed
trends signify a change is needed.
On Wednesday, skies should clear out more under northwest flow
aloft, while winds turn southeast as pressure begins to fall to
the west under the approaching upstream shortwave. High temperatures
warm into the mid 80s west and mid 70s east.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, potentially severe at times,
are forecast Wednesday night through late Friday night.
Late Wednesday night through Friday will be impacted by several
shortwaves moving through the area. Initially, a mid-level impulse
pushing through the shortwave ridge to the west will arrive
Wednesday night with best chances for precipitation northwest. With
a stronger shortwave yet to arrive, mid-level lapse rates should be
on the lower side with SREF depicting low end chances for MUCAPE to
exceed 1000 J/kg overnight. However with deep layer shear
in the 40-50 kt range and the eastern periphery of an EML pushing
into the west, a few strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out.
Later Thursday, a stronger shortwave is set to eject over the
Northern Rockies with an attendant surface trough deepening over
eastern Montana and western North Dakota. With steeper lapse rates
aloft over the west and improving (but still marginal) low level
moisture, the shear/CAPE profile should be better supportive of
severe thunderstorms, though still with questions regarding coverage
and potential intensity. Temperatures should be warmest in the west
within the warm sector of the surface low, where highs around 90 are
possible. Highs in the 70s are forecast from the Turtle Mountains
through the James River Valley while 80s are forecast from the Minot
through Bismarck area.
Stronger mid-level height falls develop Friday with a deeper upper
level trough moving over the region. This brings chances for
precipitation across the region, with partly to mostly cloudy skies
likely and highs in the 70s to around 80.
Outside of a lingering chance of precipitation as the upper level
trough exits to the south Saturday morning, this weekend shapes up
to be more clear and gradually warming as ridging builds aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Confidence is increasing that widespread MVFR ceilings will
persist across most of western and central North Dakota at least
through the night. The highest confidence is at KDIK, where
ceilings may approach IFR levels, and MVFR ceilings could last
through Wednesday morning. Other than the MVFR ceilings, which
should scatter out by early Wednesday afternoon at the latest, no
other significant aviation hazards are expected for this forecast
period, with northeast to southeast winds around 5-15 kts. There
is a slight chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over
western North Dakota tonight, but this is a low probability
outcome.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
722 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Short-term forecast updates include lower PoPs to near zero with
radar showing most convection in central Nebraska and HRRR
guidance showing low PoPs. Minimum temperatures tonight trend in
the lower to upper 50s across southeastern Wyoming and the western
Nebraska Panhandle. Dry conditions are expected through the night
into Wednesday morning and afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Cold front lays across southern South Dakota...west into northeast
Wyoming to a low near Great Falls Montana. High pressure covers
most of Colorado...into southern Wyoming. So far...radar has been
PPINE...but we are starting to see a few showers developing up
near Chadron.
Latest HRRR showing a dry forecast for the rest of the afternoon
and evening. Did keep some low chance PoPs in the Panhandle to
account for those developing showers up by Chadron. But after
00Z...zeroed our all chances.
Looking at 90s returning to the Panhandle Wednesday as GFS 700mb
temperatures climb to +12 to +16C. Upper ridge continues to build
into the CWA. By Thursday...700mb temperatures up to +16 to +20C.
Thursday will be quite hot with 104 forecast for Scottsbluff and
mid 90s out by Rawlins. GFS winds really increase Thursday with
700mb winds 25-30kts out west. Critical fire weather conditions as
we mix winds down from 500mbs.
Stronger winds Friday as 700mb winds continue to increase. Looking
at 35-40kts Friday afternoon as a cold front begins to move into
the area from the northwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Fairly active pattern moving into the early part of the weekend,
with a positive tilted trough extending through the Great Plains.
Should see a cool down in the initial weekend temperatures with most
areas never really peaking above 80 degrees. Overall, a series of
shortwaves are expected to periodically pulse across southeastern
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle and a swath of moisture advecting
into the region. As a result, will see an extention for widespread
precipitation chances through 00Z on Sunday. Severe potentials
appear to be limited on Saturday with CAPE values struggling to
raise above 100-300 J/kg. Nevertheless, should see a lightning
strike or two associated with any system able to develop. Looking
into the late weekend and into next week, quieter weather expected
as a ridge of high pressure builds across the CWA, returning the
region to a warm and dry pattern. In addition, will start to see an
uptick in the temperatures under this feature, with daytime highs in
the upper 80s and mid-90s. Current model guidance indicates some
shortwave disturbances within the upper level ridging, providing
slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms. However, any convective
initiation will ultimately be limited as subsidence is expected to
prevail with upper level ridging remaining overhead and moisture
advection effectively cut off.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
SCT-BKN clouds around 5 kft are beginning to diminish late this
afternoon giving way to mostly clear skies overnight. VFR
conditions are expected at most area terminals through the night
with fairly light winds. Guidance is trending towards the
potential for patchy fog development for portions of the Nebraska
Panhandle after 10z early Wednesday morning. Terminals most at
risk for lower flight conditions at this time is KAIA, but will
continue to monitor trends headed towards the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
High pressure building into the area will dry out the area over
the next 24 to 72 hours as it builds in and warms up. Very warm
temperatures expected Thursday with the Panhandle seeing triple
digit highs and southeast Wyoming seeing low to mid 90s. Afternoon
humidity continues to fall Wednesday...bottoming out in the upper
single digits Thursday. West winds expected to be quite strong
Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Critical fire weather conditions expected Thursday ahead of that
cold front that could persist into Friday. Very windy Friday as
the front moves into the area with winds shifting northwest.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for WYZ301-302-305-307>309.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AW
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
A summer cold front will be pushing south across western Kansas
early in the Short Term period (tonight). By midday, the front had
passed south of Goodland, KS and Burlington, CO and continued to
move slowly south ahead of a mid level shortwave trough. Midday
water vapor and RAP analysis showed the shortwave trough extending
from the Nebraska Panhandle south-southwest into north-
central/central Colorado. Deep tropospheric lift was enhanced ahead
of this shortwave trough, supporting development of thunderstorms
already across portions of northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas,
into adjacent southwest Nebraska. Along and ahead of the cold front,
deep layer shear will be quite weak, and the overall deep
tropospheric wind field was weak, thus slow-moving nature of initial
thunderstorm activity. The greatest MLCAPE was tied to the frontal
zone where deeper moisture was converging/pooling, and as such, it
will be difficult for thunderstorm activity to really become
organized with mature cold pools.
The lack of upstream low level winds will likely prevent a
formidable forward-propagating MCS, and this is seen by a majority
of the CAMs, as they show a fairly strong signal of convective
dissipation in the 01-04Z time frame later this evening. That said,
there will likely still be some remnant showers/isolated
thunderstorms around later tonight, but again, any convection will
almost assuredly be sub-severe with limited hazards other than cloud-
to-ground lightning and some brief, torrential rainfall rates.
The cold front responsible for this activity will continue to push
south across southwest Kansas during the overnight hours with north-
northeast winds 10 to 20 mph behind the front early Wednesday
morning. The front will clear the southwest Kansas region by late
morning/midday with a rather pleasant day by mid-summer standards
with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for the most
part.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
The typical summer pattern will prevail through the first half or so
of the Long Term period (through the end of the week/beginning of
the weekend) with a strong subtropical high centered across the Four
Corners region. A fairly strong shortwave trough will move across
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies over the weekend, which
will then move southeast out over the Northern/Central Plains late
weekend. The global models suggest this feature will close off to a
mid tropospheric low center with a cooler than normal temperature
regime late weekend into early next week. Ahead of this, a hot day
will exist across much of western Kansas on Friday. The latest NBM
has a high of 100-101 across west central Kansas, and there is some
suggestion there will be some 102+ temperatures in there at the nose
of the low level thermal ridge. As far as precipitation chances go,
the best chances will be along/ahead of the front Friday Night into
Saturday Night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
A line of dying thunderstorms will move through southwest Kansas
during the evening from 00Z-03Z. VCTS will be possible for all
airports with the main threat of lightning and some brief gusty
winds. Morning stratus could also lower the flight category to
MVFR for all airport sites between 10-15Z. Winds in general
should stay under 15 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 85 63 93 / 40 20 10 0
GCK 64 85 61 93 / 40 20 10 0
EHA 62 84 61 93 / 50 20 10 0
LBL 65 83 62 92 / 30 20 10 0
HYS 65 84 61 93 / 60 20 10 0
P28 69 86 66 94 / 30 40 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 through much of the period.
Storms should be confined to Hudspeth county east and
west of the Divide for the first couple hours of the TAF period.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be moving out of
the north after 06Z and could affect any of the termainals, but
chances are better the further east you go. There will be some 3SM
TSRA with the strongest of these storms. For now kept it as VCTS.
Additional storms expected to develop over area mountains after
18Z. Winds generally northeast to southeast AOB 12KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...134 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon monsoonal thunderstorms will continue today and tomorrow.
However, Thursday and Friday our storm chances diminish as a
brief surge of drier, continental air enters the region. By
Saturday, the moisture returns and so do our storm chances for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will
take a brief dip where most of the region will see upper 80s on
Wednesday, but we will steadily increase back into the 90s for
the rest of the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Rest of Today through Tomorrow...
Another busy day is underway here in the Borderland. High pressure
remains overhead with the center of the high located over southern
Utah/Nevada. We are positioned on the eastern edge of the high
allowing northerly flow to pull disturbances down into our area.
That`s what`s happening today along with plentiful moisture at the
surface, with PW values ranging from 1.25-1.5". Current radar as of
130pm shows showers and storms starting to become a bit more
numerous across the Sacramento Mountains and the Black Range. What
appears to be a residual weak MCV from overnight convection has been
slowly moving south through east El Paso/west Hudspeth Counties so
far today. That has resulted in showers and storms being able to pop
up in Hudpseth County early this afternoon. CAPE values are
currently sitting around 500-1500 J/kg per the latest analysis, with
the highest values across eastern areas. There`s also a bit more
shear than yesterday, so some stronger storms will be possible
through the rest of today. The main threat with any storm that
develops today will be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in portions of the Sacramento Mountains where heavy
rain has fallen for the last few days. Additionally, if stronger
storms do form, small hail and gusty winds will also be potential
hazards.
High resolution models show more storms developing across the area
over the next several hours and moving to the south. It looks like
the areas most likely to see storms will be well east of the Rio
Grande valley and areas to the west of Deming. The HRRR is back and
forth on if El Paso will see any activity this evening; the latest
run says something might skirt the far eastern side later this
afternoon, so kept PoPs elevated for the city. The HRRR and RAP are
also persistent with showing a larger outflow pushing westward from
storms in Otero/Hudspeth County and affecting El Paso/Las Cruces and
possibly all the way up to T-or-C between 4-6pm. If this occurs,
expect gusty easterly winds and maybe some patchy blowing dust. This
outflow could also develop additional storms due to the abundance of
moisture at hand. Models have the activity starting to dissipate
after sunset, though some scattered showers and isolated thunder
will likely persist into the early overnight hours. However, the
trend with each hi-res model run for overnight convection has been
less and less. I think we`ll see some additional rain overnight,
which is why I left PoPs in for most of the area, however, I don`t
think it will be quite as widespread as originally thought. The main
question is if the remnants from a convective complex in ABQ`s area
will make it down into our northern zones just before sunrise,
similar to what happened this morning.
Looking ahead into the daytime hours of Wednesday shows a fairly
similar set up to today. The high will remain centered to our
northwest, though the biggest change will be that we may see our
flow aloft turn a bit more northeasterly. That won`t have much
affect us on though aside from a slight shift in storm motion -
which will be more southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. CAPE values
don`t look to be quite as high as today, in the 400-800 J/kg
ballpark. PWs won`t change much, staying put in the 1.3-1.5" range
allowing for heavy rainfall to once again be a likely threat. In
terms of storm coverage, expect the first cells to develop over the
mountains around mid-day, as we`ve been seeing lately. Activity will
then try and move to the southwest into portions of the lowlands.
The NAM Nest and previous long-range run of the HRRR both show the
western lowlands being the favored location for afternoon activity
other than the mountains. Regardless, expect outflow boundaries to
move throughout the Borderland creating wind shifts, spotty gusty
winds, and perhaps even some additional storm development. Hi-res
models then agree in a quiet overnight period due to drier air
beginning to move in as the upper high shifts a bit more to the
east.
&&
.LONG TERM...
High pressure aloft over the U.S. Southwest will slowly progress
eastward back over the Four Corners on Thursday and cut off the tap
of anomalously high moisture that has lingered over southern New
Mexico and far west Texas for the past week. This stronger influence
of the upper high will bring a combination of subsident mid level
flow and more marginal moisture parameters as precipitable water
values dip below 1.0".
Thus, much more stable atmospheric conditions are expected Thursday
and Friday as capping inversions suppress the majority of convective
activity over the borderland. Most locations will stay dry the
second half of the week, with mentionable PoPs limited primarily to
mountain zones and the Gila Wilderness. A stray shower or two will
be possible in those areas, but the risk of flooding rains will not
be there. Temperatures should warm in response to the sunnier skies,
eventually returning to near climate normals by Friday. Lowland
highs will reach the mid-to-upper 90`s under light east surface
winds.
A shortwave trough will enter the Central Plains on Saturday and
quickly push the upper high back westward toward Las Vegas. A return
of more favorable thunderstorm conditions looks to quickly return
over the weekend, with Lifted Indices of -1 to -3 suggesting a
marginally unstable environment and scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the region each afternoon. Much like
the past few days, rain chances will focus over mountainous terrain,
with more isolated late-evening storm chances along the desert
floor. Matched the NBM solution fairly closely for PoPs, but did
increase QPF from WPC guidance quite a bit. Localized flooding will
be the main hazard, but a few strong storms may occur with small
hail and gusty winds. Lowland highs will settle back down to the
upper 80`s/lower 90`s by next Monday, as the North American Monsoon
season surges onward.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area both this afternoon and Wednesday. Expect storms to
initially develop across the mountains, then drift south/southwest
into portions of the lowlands. The main threat with these storms
will be heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding. Burn
scars will continue to be at a much higher risk for flooding.
Occasional gusty, erratic winds could also be possible from outflow
boundaries moving through. Min RHs will generally be 35-40 percent
this afternoon and Wednesday, with overnight recoveries above 75
percent tonight.
Drier air will push in for Thursday cutting off storm chances to the
area. If there is a slight chance of a storm anywhere, it`ll be
across the Gila region, but it`s a low chance. Min RHs will fall to
25 percent on Thursday and to 20-25 percent on Friday. Slightly
better storm chances may return to the Gila on Friday, but elsewhere
should remain dry. Moisture begins to creep back in for the weekend
resulting in more widespread storm chances each afternoon, though
the best chances will stay in the mountains. Min RHs will gradually
return to around 25-30 percent with overnight recoveries of 60-70
percent by the end of the week. Winds look to remain
east/southeasterly and fairly light, except in and around
thunderstorms. Vent rates will be Fair to Good.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 88 71 94 / 30 30 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 86 63 86 / 20 10 0 0
Las Cruces 70 86 67 92 / 30 40 0 0
Alamogordo 67 85 65 90 / 30 50 10 0
Cloudcroft 51 64 48 70 / 60 60 10 0
Truth or Consequences 70 87 68 92 / 40 40 10 0
Silver City 63 81 62 86 / 50 50 30 0
Deming 70 89 65 92 / 50 40 10 0
Lordsburg 71 90 67 92 / 50 30 20 0
West El Paso Metro 74 88 71 94 / 30 30 0 0
Dell City 67 89 67 91 / 10 20 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 91 69 94 / 10 20 0 0
Loma Linda 66 82 65 85 / 30 30 0 0
Fabens 73 90 70 94 / 30 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 71 87 67 91 / 30 30 0 0
White Sands HQ 71 86 70 89 / 30 40 0 0
Jornada Range 67 86 67 90 / 30 40 0 0
Hatch 70 88 68 92 / 50 40 0 0
Columbus 70 89 69 91 / 40 30 0 0
Orogrande 68 85 67 89 / 30 40 0 0
Mayhill 56 72 54 79 / 60 60 10 0
Mescalero 55 73 52 80 / 60 60 10 0
Timberon 53 72 52 77 / 40 60 10 0
Winston 58 81 57 86 / 60 50 20 0
Hillsboro 65 84 64 89 / 40 50 20 0
Spaceport 67 85 66 90 / 40 40 10 0
Lake Roberts 56 81 57 88 / 50 60 40 20
Hurley 64 84 61 89 / 40 50 30 0
Cliff 63 89 58 95 / 40 50 40 20
Mule Creek 61 87 62 90 / 30 50 40 20
Faywood 66 82 64 87 / 50 40 20 0
Animas 69 90 65 92 / 50 30 20 0
Hachita 69 88 65 90 / 40 30 10 0
Antelope Wells 67 87 66 89 / 50 40 10 0
Cloverdale 66 85 64 87 / 50 40 20 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
32/30/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
135 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Morning thunderstorms moved through portions of Phillips, northern
Petroleum, and Garfield Counties. These storms produced around a
half inch of rain for many locations in their path. These storms
have since died off and a clearly defined outflow/differential
heating boundary has been left behind. Locations south of the
boundary are denoted by upslope southeasterly winds and dewpoints
in the mid-50s. Areas north have easterly winds and dewpoints
around 60 degrees.
This boundary runs from northeastern Fergus County southeastward
through northern Petroleum and southern Garfield Counties. A CU
field has started to develop and thunderstorm development is
possible later this afternoon.
The latest RAP analysis suggests there is around 800-1000 J/Kg of
MLCAPE in the area as of 1 PM with 1500-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE. This
combined with effective bulk shear around 40-45 knots suggests any
storm that is able to form has a good chance of becoming severe
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. The primary
limitation is the amount of forcing.
Additional storms will move in from the north this evening into
early tonight as they move off the Alberta Front Range. These are
less likely to be severe, however, a strong to severe storm still
cannot be ruled out.
Scattered thunderstorm chances will continue for the rest of the
week with additional severe storms possible on Wednesday (southern
Phillips, Petroleum, and Garfield Counties) and Thursday (far
Northeast Montana). Thunderstorm chances decrease as we head into
next weekend and early next week.
After near normal temperatures today, look for warmer
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the low to
mid 90s. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected Friday with
a warmup expected as we head into the weekend. Widespread 80s are
likely Saturday with upper 80s to upper 90s on Sunday.
-Mottice
&&
.AVIATION...
CATEGORY: VFR-MVFR.
DISCUSSION: Low clouds will continue to break up near the
ND border through the evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop later this afternoon into this evening with strong winds
and hail possible, mainly southwest of KGGW. More general
thunderstorms are possible elsewhere through tonight. MVFR
conditions are possible in any thunderstorm.
WINDS: Easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots this afternoon will die
down overnight and become southeasterly around 10 knots through
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
558 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed a ridge of high pressure
across the western CONUS this afternoon, placing the region under
northwest flow. A shortwave trough could also be seen on the
northeastern periphery of the ridge over the central to northern
Plains. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front was pushing through
the region from the northwest, with broken lines of thunderstorms
slowly tracking southeastward. At 1 PM MT, winds were shifting to
the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, with temperatures ranging in the
80s and low 90s. Temperatures dipped down into the 70s for areas
near thunderstorm activity.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the afternoon
and into the evening hours, with the better potential for storms
gradually shifting southeast during this timeframe. PWATs of 1.5 to
2 inches and relatively slow storm motions have made heavy rainfall
and flash flooding a primary threat with these storms. While shear
is limited, moderate CAPE and lapse rates of 6 to 7C/km suggest that
storms may become strong enough to produce a few instances of large
hail and damaging winds through the evening as well. Precipitation
exits the area to the southeast late this evening as temperatures
fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Once storms clear the area, it
appears stratus will develop early Wednesday morning before clearing
from west to east by the afternoon. Cannot rule out some patchy fog
developing as well.
For Wednesday, northwest flow redevelops aloft on the backside of
the passing trough, with high pressure still to the west. After
morning stratus/fog burns off, a quiet weather day is expected with
high temperatures in the 80s. A weak disturbance rounds the northern
side of the western CONUS ridge Wednesday night, but any
precipitation associated with it should stay in the Dakotas.
Otherwise, temperatures fall into the upper 50s/low 60s under clear
skies.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
The extended period begins with high pressure associated with a
ridge located over the western CONUS. A developing upper level low
starts to show signs of development over the Pacific Northwest which
will play a major role for the weekend forecast. Thursday looks to
feature warm to hot temperatures over the Tri-State area with the
highest afternoon highs across eastern Colorado due to the position
of the high pressure. Afternoon highs may approach 100 degrees
especially across northern Yuma County, heat indices remain below
100 degrees due to the dry pattern. Another note of interest is the
potential for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns mainly
across Yuma County as well. Southerly winds are currently expected
to strengthen through the day with sustained winds around 20mph
and wind gusts up to 35mph possible; relative humidity values are
currently forecasted to be below 20% as well. Thursday evening a
weak disturbance rides down the eastern portion of the which may
lead to the development of showers/storms mainly north of Highway
34. Confidence is not overly high in this scenario as it still
continues to look as if the best forcing remains over the Nebraska
Panhandle.
Friday, the upper level low progresses east and begins to move
southeasterly across the northern plains, with an associated cold
front on the western portion of the system. Ahead of the front hot
temperatures are expected across the entire area with widespread
upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices are expected to remain at or
just below the air temperature which with the current forecasted
temperatures will keep the area below advisory criteria. The cold
front appears to move through through the CWA during the afternoon
which may initiate showers and storms with its passage. Severe
weather looks to be low at this point with the better forcing closer
to the upper level low across east Nebraska/west Iowa, however DCAPE
values of 1500-1800 j/kg and 0-6 shear forecasted at 30-35 knots may
help a severe storm or two form. Guidance seems to have backed off
the stronger wind potential with passage of the front for this
package but bears watching since the actual storm system hasn`t
even formed yet.
Saturday, cooler temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected in
the wake of the frontal passage. Guidance hints at a weak
disturbance moving south from the northern plains across the area
during the morning hours which again may help create showers and
storms for the afternoon. I kept the area at slight chance pops or
less for this package as uncertainty still exists on the progression
and location of the disturbance.
Sunday and through the beginning of the new week looks to be dry
with a warming trend developing as the Climate Prediction Center
has the entire CWA in slight risk of excessive heat for the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Thunderstorms are expected to continue in the vicinity of GLD and
MCK as storms along a cold front continue to move through the area
and skies become partly cloudy between 02-4Z this evening. With
the clearing out of skies, low level moisture and light northerly
winds will lead to the production of lower clouds and areas of fog
mainly between 10Z-14Z. IFR and occasionally LIFR conditions are
expected as a result between 10-14Z, with a return to VFR
conditions as low clouds diminish by 15Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
727 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
- Slow moving front brings chance of severe weather tonight and
Wednesday
- Fair Weather Late Thursday with rain chances increasing over the
weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Numerous showers and storms will be impacting the north half of
the CWA through this evening. Marginal risk for severe weather
exists with damaging winds the primary risk. Stalled out storms
northwest of Big Rapids are likely leading to some urban and poor
drainage impacts along with rises on the small streams. Wind shift
is dropping southward from the Ludington region adding to the
marine hazards. We did issue a small craft advisory earlier for
the period of north winds over 15 knots tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
- Slow moving front brings chance of severe weather tonight and
Wednesday
Surface cold front across northern Wisconsin slowly sags south
through tomorrow. Similar to last evening, we will have to monitor
radar trends this evening to see if convection could overcome
lack of focus for lift as well as a bit of drying/subsidence
in the late afternoon/early evening as shortwave ridging moves
through prior to heights falling later this evening.
CAPE values are similar to last evening, with areas of greater
than 4000 J/kg and wind profiles are a little stronger with
around 25 to 30 knots of deep layer shear. More favorable shear
environment currently across Wisconsin weakens as it translates
east tonight and the Convection Allowing Models such as the HRRR
show convection following a similar course, affecting the northern
half of our forecast area, along and north of I-96, between
roughly 8 pm and 2 am.
We expect a surface low to push east across Lower Michigan on
Wednesday with strong to possible severe storms in the warm sector
across the southern half of the forecast area during the
afternoon. Some strong storms are also possible as the trailing
cold front advances through Wednesday evening.
- Fair Weather Late Thursday with rain chances increasing over the
weekend
Surface low pulls away with showers and thunderstorms ending
Thursday morning across western zones and across the east during
Thursday afternoon followed by cooler and drier air for Thursday
and Friday.
A blocky pattern develops over the weekend with Michigan in
between an upper low to our west and an upper high over the SE
CONUS. As the upper low slowly moves northeast, an advancing
warm front could focus showers and thunderstorms across Lower
Michigan from late Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Thunderstorms to the west of Muskegon are tracking east northeast
and it looks like they will impact that TAF site over the next 2
hours. Gusty winds that shift to the north northwest for a period
look likely to happen. Further east for KGRR it appears the storms
may stay just north of that site this evening...so VCTS was used.
Will need to monitor trends closely though. For Wednesday storms
should redevelop during the day. It may take til the afternoon for
them to reach the TAF sites in Southwest Lower MI. MVFR and
possible IFR cloud cover could move in during the day or in the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Some choppy waves are expected around Big and Little Sable Points
this evening with waves 2 to 4 feet and some winds gusting over 30
knots in thunderstorms through the evening. Elsewhere, winds and
waves should remain in the 1 to 3 feet range. Thunderstorms are
possible north of Grand Haven through the evening and then further
south on Wednesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
907 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Although most of the evening showers and thunderstorms have faded
away, a few continue to drift across our forecast area late this
evening. Abundant moisture, light but steady flow aloft, and
limited to no CIN overnight will allow for spotty showers and
storms to re-develop at times. Most high-res models suggest an
uptick in coverage again toward the early morning hours, so have
trended POPs back toward high end "chance" category by sunrise
and then to the "likely" category for most of the area by the
mid-afternoon on Wednesday. With light winds overnight and some
areas of rain late into the evening, we could see a few patches of
fog in the early morning hours. Chances for dense fog are low, so
no headlines are anticipated at this time. /NF/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Wednesday:
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a weak mid
level low that stretched northeast from Texas coast across our
southeast zones. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a <1010mb low
along the central Texas coast. Together these features were
helping increase deep moisture back across our CWA from the south.
The 12Z Tuesday JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.92in up from 1.44in
Monday. PWATs are expected to increase to around 2.15in by
Wednesday afternoon. This moisture will fuel decent rain chances
into tonight and again Wednesday. Local radars had scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over east and south
Mississippi. This activity is expected to spread across the
remainder of our CWA through this evening. There will be a marked
decrease in convection with the loss of daytime heating but models
suggest and early start to convection in the east Wednesday that
is expected to lead to an even greater coverage of storms than is
expected today. Although heavy downpours will be likely Wednesday,
the tropical nature of the airmass will minimize the potential
for microbursts. Near normal temperatures in the lower 70s are
expected tonight but the early and widespread convection Wednesday
will hold afternoon highs below temperatures Wednesday. Portions
of east Mississippi may only top out in the lower 80s. /22/
Wednesday night through Tuesday:
Afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period. An upper
trough begins to exit the area midweek, with increasing upper
heights and surface temperatures. On the backside of the trough
axis, Friday and Saturday may be relative minimums in terms of storm
chances with upper convergence and marginal height rises. With
boundary layer moisture remaining seasonably high through the
period, this could lead to some 100F+ heat indices as temperatures
reach lower 90s for most by Saturday. Some higher apparent
temperatures are possible and should confidence increase in later
forecast cycles, products may be required to address the heat
threat. A closed low approaches the area towards the beginning of
next week bringing a better chance of rain particularly north of
I-20. Some guidance disagreement exists with the GFS suggesting
some storms could be on the stronger side as mid level flow
becomes marginally supportive. The Euro on the other hand favors a
weaker upper low a bit further north. In either case, severe
weather is not expected due to only seasonably marginal
instability and limited shear with 0- 6km bulk shear generally
under 25 kt. The trough axis should begin to lift out away from
the area by the end of the period with a return to a more typical
July environment of heat and humidity with isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms. /86/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Similar forecast to last night...with deteriorating conditions in
the 06-08z time frame with IFR stratus developing and spreading
northward into much of the region. Given showers across the region
and current dewpoints, a little concerned that vis may end up
being more of an issue as well. That being said, SREF probs and
HRRR are less aggressive and mainly keep cigs above 500ft. Going
with a more optimistic vis/cig... but letting it linger into the
morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 72 86 72 89 / 45 83 44 74
Meridian 70 85 69 87 / 48 87 47 74
Vicksburg 73 87 72 90 / 32 79 36 64
Hattiesburg 72 85 72 88 / 48 84 31 73
Natchez 71 85 71 88 / 35 83 32 71
Greenville 72 88 72 90 / 22 61 25 51
Greenwood 71 87 71 90 / 38 76 33 60
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
NF/HJS/22/LP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
811 PM PDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.UPDATE...Latest satellite imagery shows mid-level clouds continuing
to grow over south central OR spreading NE-ward in light of an
offshore upper-level low beginning an onshore push through the next
couple of days. As of now, any cells that have popped up on radar
imagery have been isolated and spotty, as guidance suggesting a lack
of moisture aloft to trigger more scattered storms, even with
sufficient orographic lift and elevated instability. Right now bulk
of moisture plus ascent aloft appears to be concentrated over the
eastern foothills of the Blue Mountains spreading eastward into the
Wallowas and Treasure Valley, where radar depicts most of the
current shower activity.
As this offshore low moves more inland, a southwesterly jet max will
move in over the area and allow for a more robust source of lift and
moisture. Guidance times this injection of mid-level moisture closer
to sunrise Wednesday, however CAMs not showing much of any precip in
our CWA or even northeastward. Given sufficient elevated instability
and the synoptic pattern, however, still feel that there is at least
a slight chance for a dry thunderstorm along the eastern mountains
extending into SE WA, as well as parts of the Basin in the far
northeast border of our forecast area. Still expect to see little if
any precip should a storm form early tomorrow morning, though.
On Wednesday, focus shifts from storms to breezy winds, as the
onshore arrival of the low will make for sustained winds in the 20-
25 kt range, especially in the Columbia River Gorge and the Kittitas
Valley, with gusts eclipsing 30 kts at times. Even if t-storms don`t
pan out, these winds will justify the Red Flag Warning through
tomorrow evening, especially when coupled with the very low RHs
expected in the afternoon. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, however
hot and dry conditions will prevail, with highs in the 90s across
most of the forecast area. 74
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM PDT Tue Jul 6 2021/
SHORT TERM...The main weather concerns revolve around fire
weather due to storm chances late today-tomorrow morning and
dry/windy conditions tomorrow afternoon. Latest water vapor
imagery shows some evidence of broad ascent associated an upper
trough. The day cloud phase RGB shows an increase in mid-level
clouds over the last three hours upstream and across central OR
mountains into the Strawberry and southern Blue mountains. An
upper level low is offshore the northern CA/southern OR coast that
will lift north and east over the next 24 hrs into northern
WA/southern British Columbia by tomorrow.
Mid-level lapse rates are steepening with increasing large scale
forcing for ascent across the OR-side this afternoon. This in
combination with orographic forcing and upslope flow will promote
chances for isolated to widely scattered storms. Current thinking
is best chances will be across parts of Crook county east into
southern and central Blues late today through the evening.
Thereafter storm threat shifts more so to WA Cascades east to the
northern Blues mainly in the small hours through the early
morning period. The signal from the HREF, CAMs, and multiple HRRR
runs have been limited with respect to CI and development this
afternoon/early tonight. As such, threat appears more conditional
over that said area and time period at this time. Current
thinking is this can be attributable to limited moisture and
instability, such as at the surface and for parcels to overcome at
lower levels (e.g., 700 hPa). Better synoptic scale forcing
arrives late tonight to help aid additional development across
south central WA to the northeast mountains. Current thinking is
storm chances will then diminish/storms moving out mid-late
morning. Decent onshore push expected tomorrow early with cold
front late tonight-morning. This combined with decent pressure
difference will promote moderate winds in the eastern Gorge
spilling into the far western Basin and Kittitas Valley. High
confidence with winds peaking 35-40 mph in the eastern Gorge,
that will spill out some, and in the Kittitas Valley. Decent
signal is present in the HREF, along with the NBM and raw
ensemble guidance. ECMWF EFI shows values in excess of 0.7 with
respect to wind across north central OR. Thus increased confidence
in winds, especially with strongest winds occurring in the Basin,
Gorge, and Kittitas Valley tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain
elevated and linger in the Kittitas Valley and Gorge then through
early tomorrow night.
Slightly cooler conditions expected Thursday along with breezy
conditions again, notably in the Gorge and Kittitas Valley
Thursday. That said, highs will remain around 5 degrees or so
above seasonable values with mid 90s in the Basin to mid 80s in
central OR.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Quiet weather pattern is
expected through the forecast period. A compact shortwave trough
will be exiting the area early Friday followed by shortwave
ridging through Saturday. The ensemble clusters as well as the
deterministic models agree on this scenario which favor a hot day
on Saturday. Triple digit heat is expected in the lower
elevations. The NBM is showing little spread in its forecast
temperature ranges for Saturday which raises confidence that it
will be a hot day with high temperatures of 102 to 107 in the
Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys. Heat risk product is pinging
Saturday for a potential need for heat highlights in the lower
elevations...so this situation will need to be monitored in the
coming days. A shortwave trough will flatten the ridge Saturday
night and Sunday which should cool temperatures slightly Sunday.
On Monday into Tuesday the deterministic models differ on the
potential for an upper trough to cross the area. The GFS is much
deeper than the ECMWF and would suggest some potential for TSTMS.
However the ensemble clusters are indicating more of a flat zonal
flow which favors the drier pattern. The NBM is dry Monday and
Tuesday and used its POPs for the current forecast. It will be
breezy in the afternoons/evenings through the Cascade gaps
Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS. Until 10Z, thunderstorms are not expected in
the vicinity of the terminal airports although there may be a
thunderstorm near Prineville this evening. Between 11Z-16Z, there
may be thunderstorms developing across the Lower Columbia Basin and
Blue Mtn Foothills and PROB30 was included in the TAFs for ALW and
PSC. Winds will increase behind the shortwave Wednesday morning
with westerly winds 10-20kt gusting to 30-35kt with strongest winds
at DLS through the afternoon hours. Wister
FIRE WEATHER...Multiple fire weather concerns in the next 30
hrs... 1) Initial storm threat starts mid afternoon and is
conditional with storm coverage expected to be predominantly
isolated. LALs of generally 2 are expected with the area of
concern across the Central and Southern Blues late today and early
tonight. 2) The thunderstorm threat then shifts north to
encompass Wallowas and the northern Blues, along with the WA
Cascades east to over the Basin late tonight through the morning.
This will occur in tandem with better synoptic forcing so wider
area of concern, along with better potential for LALs of 3. 3)
Finally, dry and windy tomorrow with a onshore push occurring late
tonight with a cold frontal passage. Gusts peaking 30-40 mph
across the Gorge and Cascades spilling to the Basin. Looking
ahead, breezy and slightly cooler Thursday, however, winds look to
be a limiting factor with respect to fire weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 66 92 57 91 / 20 20 0 0
ALW 70 97 63 94 / 20 30 0 0
PSC 71 98 61 95 / 20 20 0 0
YKM 68 95 58 93 / 20 20 0 0
HRI 69 95 61 95 / 20 20 0 0
ELN 67 87 60 89 / 20 20 0 0
RDM 56 89 47 89 / 10 10 0 0
LGD 64 90 52 90 / 20 20 0 0
GCD 63 93 55 92 / 20 10 0 0
DLS 68 86 61 89 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ639-641.
Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ642>645.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ639-641-675-681.
Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for WAZ643-645.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...85
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
957 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to remain north of the Mid Atlantic region
for the remainder of the week, while a surface trough remains in
place across the Mid Atlantic region through at least
Wednesday. There remains the potential for Tropical Storm Else
to move near the Mid Atlantic region Thursday night into Friday.
A cold front will finally settle into the region Saturday, then
stall to our south into Sunday. This front may return back
north as a warm front early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms have been fairly persistent over
portions of northern New Jersey, but these should taper off and
move offshore over the next hour or so.
HRRR and the 00Z NAM is still indicating a secondary area of
showers and thunderstorms that could affect portions of northern
Delmarva, extreme southeast Pennsylvania, and southern New
Jersey, but chances are low.
Some patchy fog is possible across the northern half of the
forecast area late tonight and into Wednesday morning, mainly in
the areas where the heaviest rain fell.
On Wednesday, another day of heat and humidity is expected as
the cold front remains to our north, and the lee-side/thermal
trough remains in place. Heat Index values are expected to reach
100-105 degrees or more for many areas again Wednesday, so the
areas that has advisory criteria 100 degrees or more for heat
index will remain in a Heat Advisory.
There remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms again on
Wednesday. The flow will turn more southwesterly through the day
as ridging builds to our south. Depending on how far north the
ridge noses, it could push the majority of any short
wave/vorticity impulses west of the area during the afternoon
and evening hours. However, at least the western and northern
areas could be close enough for some enhanced lift to develop,
plus with any instability that develop, showers and
thunderstorms could develop anywhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front starts to drop down from the Great Lakes Thursday and
will likely remain to our west through at least part of Friday
before it starts to push to the east. As the front pushes east it is
likely to stall across our region. We should see some showers and
thunderstorms develop ahead of the boundary as we will be fully warm
sectored on Thursday. Highs on Thursday are likely to reach into the
mid to upper 80s with some spots around 90. Heat index values should
stay below advisory levels.
Tropical Storm Elsa or the remnants of the storm are currently
forecast to pass across the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and up the
Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday. As the system makes
its way towards our area we should see an increase in low level
moisture. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the
system passes by, the threat for heavy rain is likely and PWATs look
to be around 2"+ Thursday night. As a result, we have gone ahead and
added the mention of heavy rain to the forecast for Thursday night.
As the system moves off to the northeast, we would expect things to
start clearing out. However, the cold front finally moves into the
region on Friday which will keep us with the possibility of more
showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures on Friday will remain hot and muggy, as the cooler air
won`t arrive until the front starts to cross the area. Highs will
likely be in the 80s across the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We seem to be stuck in a pattern where we see some form of an upper
trough on the weekends with building high pressure through much of
the week. This has left us with unsettled weekends and hot and humid
weekdays. That pattern seems to hold true for this coming weekend
and new week.
The cold front from Friday stalls across the region by Friday night.
The boundary moves little through Saturday and Sunday but should
start to lift northwards as a warm front on Monday. The upper trough
starts to push to the east through the weekend but strengthening
ridging over the Atlantic may slow the forward progress of the
trough. While cooler air is available behind the front there remains
uncertainty as to how far it makes it through our area and as a
result daytime highs through the weekend will be impacted. Once the
front starts to lift northward on Monday, we will see a return to
the southwest flow and warming will occur once again. As we head
into the new week we will see high temps start to reach back into
the 90s and with increasing moisture we will also see the mugginess
return.
With the boundary across the region we will maintain the chance for
some showers or thunderstorms. While it is not likely to be a
washout, we can`t rule out that some development will occur, mainly
diurnally driven each day.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...A few lingering TSRA could affect KTTN. Otherwise, a
mostly VFR forecast. Will TEMPO some patchy IFR VSBY in BR at
KTTN and KABE, which are the 2 terminals that were mostly
affected by heavy rain. Additional sub-VFR VSBYs possible
elsewhere. SW winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon which may temporarily
lead to lower conditions. Southwest winds 5-10 knots,
occasionally gusting around 15 knots at times. High confidence
except showers/thunderstorms impacting a TAF site.
Wednesday night...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms during the evening which may temporarily lead to
lower conditions. Some fog may develop overnight, especially where
rain occurs during the afternoon and the evening. Southwest winds 5-
10 knots. High confidence except showers/thunderstorms impacting a
TAF site.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms. South to southwest winds around 10 to 15
knots on Thursday will go light and variable overnight. Winds may
turn more to the west on Friday before starting to back towards the
southwest. Low confidence.
Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with sub-VFR conditions possible during the afternoon and evening.
Light and variable winds. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday night...Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the 2 northern NJ ocean zones, but will cancel the
SCA for ANZ452-455 as conditions have subsided to sub-SCA
criteria. Conditions will remain below advisory levels through
Wednesday. Winds may approach advisory levels again Wednesday
evening. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms which
may lead to locally higher winds and waves.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Seas and winds will increase in response
to Tropical Cyclone Elsa. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely, mainly Thursday afternoon through Friday with seas and
winds dropping back below SCA levels Friday night.
Saturday through Sunday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected on the area waters.
Rip Currents...
Persistent SW winds 15-20 kt on Wednesday along with seas of
around 4 feet will allow for a MODERATE risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents on Wednesday.
There is the potential for an elevated risk of rip currents
Thursday and Friday due to Tropical Storm Elsa or its remnants
tracking off the eastern seaboard.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015-017>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS/Robertson
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Meola/Robertson
Marine...Meola/Robertson
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
Rain and storm chances may remain isolated to scattered into the day
on Wednesday. Friday storm chances may be delayed into the day on
Saturday if current trends continue.
Storms continue this afternoon along a cold frontal boundary across
northwestern KS into central NE. Much of the best dynamics is still
displaced over the northern tier of the CONUS. Thus, shear drops
off to the south and east of this boundary. With deeper mixing and
higher LCL heights to the east of where storms are now, they should
become less organized and tend to fall apart with eastward
progression. Therefore, not expecting any severe storms to advance
into the north central counties this afternoon but still won`t .
rule out a strong storm moving into Republic, Cloud or Washington
county vicinities. The front will slowly advance south through the
overnight time frame. Short-term HREF and HRRR guidance continues to
break apart current storms over NE and then suggests that storms
reform tomorrow afternoon with the heating of the day along the weak
frontal boundary. Limited shear with the weak shortwave aloft
likely doesn`t allow for highly organized updrafts to be sustained
for very long. Storms could still produce brief heavy rain as they
quickly interact with other storms and generally move off to the
east into west central MO.
With the front and some storms over the area, Wednesday is also
cooler with highs into the lower 80s area wide. Thursday will see
return flow developing and continued WAA with stronger winds from
the southwest into Friday. Heat headlines may be possible as highs
breach the century mark across a good portion of the area supported
by 584 decameter 1000-500mb heights.
Timing for storm chances arriving on Friday evening remain to be
seen as the overall trends appear to be slowing down the progression
of an upper low digging into the area. Most deterministic solutions
continue to slow the frontal progression more into the Saturday time
frame. Marginal severe storms may be possible with the best shear
remaining mainly north of the area. Instability will determine how
vigorous updrafts become but could be aided by the boundary still
slow to progress through the area into the afternoon on Saturday.
Many details to be ironed out at this time but it is looking like
the trends continue to be an overall slower progression of the upper
and lower level features into this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
VFR conditions should prevail through much of the TAF period.
There is a very slight chance a shower/storm could impact MHK
after 06Z but confidence is much too low for mention at this time.
Additional storms are expected to develop near/southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike near 19Z, therefore have continued the mention of
VCTS at the Topeka sites. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR
CIGS is possible around mid-morning, prior to the CIGS lifting
with daytime mixing. Winds will shift to the north during the mid
to late morning hours. Any storm threat pushes southeast of the
terminals by late afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Baerg