Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/28/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.AVIATION...
The best chance of a thunderstorm looks to be at the AMA TAF site,
so have inserted a tempo group there at the start of this
forecast. Otherwise confidence is low on a thunderstorm affecting
any one TAF site through this forecast. Winds will remain around
10 knots or less. Skies are expected to remain VFR, except in
thunderstorms. Some MVFR cigs may try to make a run at the AMA TAF
site late in this forecast, but confidence is low, so have left it
out of the forecast for now.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/
SHORT TERM...
Highlights:
* Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
* Flood/flash flooding concerns
- Especially south and southeast TX Panhandle
* Well below normal temperatures
Further Details:
An upper trough is noted over the central CONUS, and will remain
here through the short term thanks in part to a large 595-597
decameter high over the Atlantic states. The ridge of high
pressure is--to at least some degree--blocking the progression of
the trough, and allowing for continued Gulf Moisture to advect
into the Southern Plains. The position of the trough axis will
allow for numerous perturbation to round the base and clip the
Panhandles with several vorticity maxima. The RAP seems to be
handling the current state of the forecast the best, albeit there
are still some initialization errors noted, yet leaned on the RAP
favorably for the short term. Our first of several vorticity max
is noted in mid level water vapor just to the southwest of the
Panhandles over eastern New Mexico. This energy is already kicking
off showers and thunderstorms. Several pieces of energy will
likely round the base of the H5 trough today/tonight making for
scattered to numerous storms across the area. Instability is very
weak today given the weak lapse rates, and there is little to no
effective shear, so severe weather seems very unlikely today.
Flash flood guidance is only around 1.50"-2.50" over a 3 hour time
frame across nearly every county in the Flood Watch. There are of
course pockets of higher amounts, but given the fact these amounts
are attainable today/tonight with training/propagating storms and
slow storm motion, the flood watch has been extended through 7 am
Monday morning. This may very well need an extension as guidance
continues to show scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through at least parts of tomorrow afternoon.
Guerrero
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
The extended forecast continues to favor below average high
temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could produce heavy rain. These conditions have been
promoted by an omega block with a robust 595dm H5 high over the
northwest CONUS, upstream from a positive tilt trough axis
stretching from Ontario down through NM. These combined with a
subtropical high over the eastern CONUS has helped steer mid and
upper level moisture over portions of the southern plains,
including the Panhandle region. The overall synoptic pattern will
dampen some as the ridge/trough slowly move east through the
week, yet plentiful moisture will remain intact for the Panhandle
area keeping temperatures down and rain chances up.
The latest GEFS/EC members support the idea of increasing PWATs
Tuesday through Thursday as forecast soundings take on a very
tropical appearance (e.g. pseudo-adiabatic lapse rates, low/skinny
CAPE, very moist throughout the profile). Ensemble means suggest
PWATs will be around 150% of normal, well above the 90th
percentile range and possibly approaching daily max values,
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Does this mean it will rain
cats and dogs? Not necessarily, because lift for thunderstorm
development is also required along with instability. There are
differences with how much instability will be available, but
general consensus is that CAPE should remain below 1000 J/kg each
day (NAM profiles do approach 1000 J/kg). Lift is the bigger
question with shortwave perturbations being hard to detect this
far out in such weak flow aloft. It does seem like convective
temperatures will be reached and a least there won`t be any days
with much subsidence, so isolated to scattered storms should pop
up each afternoon. With mean flow being weak, storms will be slow
movers and of pulse nature due to lacking shear. Overall, the
flood/flash flood threat will remain as any storms should be
efficient precipitation producers, with overall coverage of
storms being the main limiting factor.
Southwest flow aloft finally becomes more northwesterly going into
late week and next weekend as high pressure builds more over the
Desert Southwest wind troughing over the upper midwest. A
cold front is possible around Friday which could help provide
additional lift for storm activity. Storm chances and cooler than
normal conditions will continue through the 4th of July weekend.
Ward
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following zones:
Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...
Gray...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.
OK...None.
&&
$$
15/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021
Key Messages...
- Around 9 to 10 PM, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop
across portions of eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. This
activity will slowly move east through the early morning hours.
- Greatest shower and thunderstorm chances will reside along and
south of the Missouri River.
- Additional Rainfall tonight into Tuesday will be up to a half
inch north of the Missouri River and between a half inch and two
inches south of the Missouri River. Isolated locally higher
amounts are possible with the strongest showers and storms.
Detailed Discussion...
As discussed yesterday, a very weak boundary has continued to linger
from southeast Kansas into central Missouri and this afternoon, was
slowly begun to lift back north ahead of the slow evolving upper
trough to the northwest over the Plains. 850mb analysis reveals
decent dew point axis laid southwest to northeast across the
region. Along this axis, supportive isentropic ascent will provide
focus for showers and thunderstorms as the upper trough begins to
advance east this evening. Depending on your flavor of CAM, the HRRR
has been rather consistent, convection is expected to develop along
this pre-trough axis. 700mb jet should aid as well, reaching 20 to
25kts out of the southwest. Forecast soundings reveal skinny cape
profiles, but enough MLCAPE to support isolated to scattered
thunder. Generally severe concerns are limited with highly isolated
heavy rain the greater concern. Pwats are forecast north of 1.75
inches, with some guidance easily breaching 2.00 inches. Similar to
showers yesterday, the atmosphere presented is basically tropical.
Any shower or isolated thunderstorm could quickly put down a half
inch to an inch of rainfall. As mentioned at the top, timing is
generally 9 to 10 PM, with the best chances along and south of the
River and the greatest rainfall amounts forecast south of the
Missouri River.
Precipitation chances will carry into Monday, with rain and showers
persisting as a blocking pattern keeps the region under broad ascent
with ample moisture return feeding into the area. Greatest rainfall
amounts will remain focused across the Ozarks into southeastern
Kansas and central Missouri. An additional inch or so of widespread
rain is forecast south of the Missouri River through Tuesday. Latest
guidance suggests daily rainfall chances through at least Thursday
given the stalled pattern. The good news is, mid-range solutions are
more consistent, with an actual front clearing the region on Friday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021
With rain clearing the area expect quiet conditions for the next
several hours. Overnight, shower and thunderstorms activity will
become possible again. Activity will be scattered in nature so
confidence in impacts to the terminals is low so sticking with
VCTS through that period. By morning expect gradual decrease of
shower/storm activity, however a few hours of MVFR ceilings look
likely through late morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...HB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
249 PM PDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS...An exceptionally strong dome of high pressure will
persist over much of the western United States through next week,
resulting in dry weather with hot interior temperatures. Coastal
areas will remain seasonably cool with persistent marine layer
clouds and only partial afternoon sun.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Stratus bolstered by a shallow marine layer and near
shore eddies has blanketed most of the coast early this afternoon. A
midlevel low pressure system is evident in water vapor imagery
slowly moving up the ridiculously high ridge over the Pacific
Northwest. This low has shifted winds to a southerly direction along
much of the coast and has helped slightly deepen the marine layer.
As promised, interior areas have rapidly warmed throughout the day.
Most parts of the interior are trending a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, particularly in Trinity county. Even along the northern
coast, thinner marine clouds and weak southerly winds have allowed
warming of a few degrees above yesterday. The exception to this
warming trend lies in some areas of Mendocino county along the
Russian River and the coast where the same southerly winds warming
Humboldt Bay have allowed the marine layer to weakly intrude.
Thankfully, dry and clear conditions will allow temperatures to drop
back into the upper 60`s tonight for most interior locations and
even lower in coastal Mendocino county where marine intrusion
continues. Sporadic clearing will continue along the coast this
evening before marine clouds invariably march back on shore early
tonight.
The upper level ridge will persist through early this week. The low
moving along the ridge will allow temperatures on Monday and Tuesday
to ease slightly for the interior. The low may also mix the marine
layer enough to actually warm the immediate coast with high
temperatures expected to increase slightly into the upper 60`s for
Humboldt Bay. As a parting gift, interior temperatures and coastal
clouds will likely increase again on Wednesday before finally
starting to ease later in the week as the ridge is forced east. Warm
temperatures on Wednesday may justify extending the interior heat
advisory an extra day as more model guidance comes in tonight and
tomorrow. After the ridge, seasonable, stagnate July weather is
expected to persist with clouds along the coast and sunny warm
afternoons for the interior. Beyond the heat, some models currently
show southeasterly flow bringing midlevel moisture and the
possibility of isolated convection over northern and eastern Trinity
county late next week into the weekend. Current model guidance is
highly uncertain, however, so further refinement will be needed as
high resolution models become available.
/JHW
&&
.AVIATION...The marine layer became a bit more shallow late last
night. In addition, some low-level southeasterly (downslope) flow
developed. This improved visibilities before daybreak and confined
stratus to a thinner layer just above the surface. The stratus field
over the coastal waters has decreased in coverage over our N outer
coastal waters. Most of the stratus has pulled back to the coast due
to strong daytime heating over land. However, eddies continue to
pump clouds into portions of the North Coast, particularly near and
S of KCEC, from Patrick`s Point to Cape Mendocino, and along the N
2/3 of the Mendocino coast. In addition, cumulus clouds are
developing across portions of the interior mountains.
Expect clouds along the coast to once again push inland this
evening. The marine layer has show signs of slow deepening during
the past few hours per ACV and Bodega Bay profilers, and this trend
may continue tonight as a Pacific low edges a bit closer to the
coast as it shifts slowly NE. However, there are indications that
some weak downsloping flow may redevelop overnight. This adds some
uncertainty to the ceiling height and visibility forecast. However,
expect that IFR ceilings and/or visibilities will persist for much
of the night.
Stratus may make a bit more progress toward KUKI late tonight, both
from the W as the marine layer deepens a bit and up the Russian
River Valley as light S flow develops. HRRR guidance still doesn`t
show enough moisture reaching the terminal to warrant a ceiling, but
this will need to be monitored closely overnight. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...Light winds will continue across the coastal waters
tonight, with S flow increasing a bit on Monday as a surface low
deepens off the OR coast. Northerly winds will increase to advisory-
level across the outer waters S of Cape Mendocino by Tuesday, and
these winds will expand to cover all of the outer waters by
Wednesday. The thermal trough over land will pivot closer to the
coast S of Cape Mendocino by late Thursday, which will shift the
strongest gradient winds farther offshore in that area. In addition
to the more local, short period wind waves, a mid-period WNW swell
and a long period SSW swell will persist through the forecast
period. The mid-period swell is forecast to build a bit by mid-week.
/SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...While temperatures in most locations will take a
slight step back Monday and Tuesday, it will generally remain
persistently hot through next weekend. That will help to further dry
area vegetation and fuels. Peak minimum afternoon humidity will
likely be in the teens for interior valleys of Lake, Trinity, and
northeast Mendocino right through the end of the week. Humidity
recoveries will remain fairly good through most lower slopes and
valleys, especially toward the coast. Locally poor recoveries will
be found in the higher elevations of Mendocino National Forest, the
Trinity Alps, and toward Siskiyou County. Light pressure gradients
will keep ambient winds mainly light most of the week, allowing
terrain driven influences to dominate. There will probably be a
threat of isolated mountain thunderstorms toward the end of the
week. Current model runs have some midlevel monsoon moisture
entering the area, leading to a slight risk of thunderstorms near
the Trinity Alps in particular around Friday afternoon and possibly
into the weekend. Model guidance has not given us a strong or
consistent signal yet though, and even seemed to pull back
probabilities today. Exact location and timing of any possible
convection will have to be refined early this week as the period
enters the purview of high resolution models.
/AAD /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ108-
111-114-115.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
CAZ108-111-114-115.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ105-110-113.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
917 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
Low level moisture remains high for areas southeast of the KS
Turnpike, with precipitable water values still hovering around 170
to 200 percent of normal. As the overnight progresses, latest RAP
shows low level moisture transport in eastern OK, shifting due north
into SE KS and SW MO after midnight. Most of this moisture transport
will be shunted to the east of the forecast area into SW MO, but
back edge of this increased low level moisture will lead to a
redevelopment of showers and storms over SE KS after midnight.
Could see some of this activity "train" over extreme SE KS through
early Mon morning, which may lead to some renewed flooding threats.
Given the high precipitable water values, some of the showers and
thunderstorms may lead to very efficient rainfall producers and with
pockets of heavy rainfall, that may produce flooding. So will keep
the flood watch going over extreme SE KS for now, as this area, is
the most likely too see the increased shower activity.
Not sure how far back to the west of this moisture transport showers
and thunderstorms will develop, but think for now most of the shower
activity will stay well to the east of Wichita.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
A mid/upper trough remains anchored across the central CONUS while
an anomalous mid/upper ridge was situated across the Northern
Intermountain region and Pacific Northwest.
The mid/upper trough impacting the central CONUS is progged to move
very little through Monday before gradually shearing eastward on
Tue. Meanwhile, weak flow around the Mid-Atlantic mid/upper ridge is
keeping deep moisture entrenched across the southeast portions of
the Central Plains region where 2 inch PWATs have remained
consistent. Timing the various rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
some of which will produce locally heavy rain will remain a
challenge as we move into the work-week.
For tonight and Monday, we continue to see some support for showers
and storms, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike within
the PWAT axis and where some weak low level moisture transport is
progged to linger into the overnight hours. We remain weakly capped
on Monday as the PWAT axis expands westward slightly which may
support more afternoon coverage on Monday when compared to the past
couple of days. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will
remain well below normal for late June with highs mostly in the
lower 80s.
Tue-Wed...The persistent mid/upper trough is progged to finally
shear eastward, however little change is expected in the overall
pattern which will continue to be supportive of diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms as we remain within a moist pbl and weakly
capped airmass through the period. Temperatures will also respond
similarly with below normal values lingering through the period.
Pockets of heavy rainfall will remain possible as we remain within
the higher PWAT axis.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
Some drier air is progged to gradually build south across the
area late Thu into Fri allowing the airmass to finally dry out.
Temperatures may slowly moderate into the weekend while remaining
below normal for early July.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
Lots of low level moisture continues to linger across most of the
southern KS at this time, as pattern remains stagnant. As the late
evening progresses, latest short range model solutions suggest that
low level moisture transport and potential convective activity will
increase across SE KS, potentially affecting the KCNU and possibly
the KICT taf sites after 06-09z. Think areas SE of the KS Turnpike
have the greatest chance of seeing renewed nocturnal SHRA/TSRA, but
uncertain how far back west the moisture transport will push back
possibly into KICT. So will go with a VCTS for the KICT taf and
prevailing SHRA/VCTS for the KCNU taf where the convection looks
more likely. MVFR and some IFR cigs will be likely under the showers
and storms impacting KCNU into the late night and early morning
hours on Mon.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 68 83 67 81 / 20 60 50 60
Hutchinson 65 84 66 83 / 10 50 40 50
Newton 66 82 66 81 / 10 50 50 60
ElDorado 67 80 67 80 / 40 60 50 70
Winfield-KWLD 66 80 67 81 / 40 80 60 70
Russell 62 84 65 84 / 10 40 20 20
Great Bend 62 83 63 83 / 10 40 30 30
Salina 64 85 65 86 / 10 40 40 40
McPherson 64 84 65 83 / 10 50 40 40
Coffeyville 68 83 68 83 / 60 90 70 80
Chanute 69 81 68 81 / 60 90 70 80
Iola 66 80 68 81 / 60 90 70 80
Parsons-KPPF 68 83 68 82 / 60 90 70 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ096-099-100.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...McGuire
LONG TERM...McGuire
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1004 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
.UPDATE...The 00Z sounding indicated a fair degree of stability in
the mid-levels with lapse rates of 5.5C/km between 850 and 500mb.
These weaker lapse rates were driven by some drier air advecting
into the region around 500mb. Temperatures warmed aloft in
response and lapse rates declined. This also reduced precipitable
water values down to a more seasonable range of 1.8 inches. With
the main driver of convective activity earlier today, solar
insolation, coming to an end those weak mid- level lapse rates
are now showing their hand. Convective activity has completely
collapsed over much of the forecast area in the last two hours
with only the warmer coastal waters maintaining any shower and
thunderstorm activity this evening. Given the weak instability in
place for the overnight hours, have significantly lower POP to 20
percent or less for most of the land based forecast area. Only the
extreme coastal areas of Southeast Louisiana should a scattered
shower or storm through daybreak from any coastal showers that
manage to move briefly over land before dissipating.
Taking into account the influence of the ridging aloft building
over the area and the prospect of lower precipitable water values
than the forecast models indicate, have also lowered POP values a
bit for tomorrow with only chance POP along and east of the Pearl
River and likely POP for most of the remainder of the forecast
area. Categorical POP of 75 percent and higher should be confined
more toward the Atchafalaya Basin. PG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/
EVENING UPDATE...Adjusted temperatures down a few degrees in most
locations for the next couple of hours to better reflect observed
values and to better fit the diurnal curve this evening.
Temperatures have cooled into the upper 70s and lower 80s in most
areas, and the previous forecast had temperatures in the middle
80s. The overnight lows were not adjusted, so this was only a very
minor update to the ongoing forecast package. Widely scattered
convection will continue to push in from the Gulf through the
overnight hours on the eastern side of an upper level low
currently moving into coastal Texas. This convective risk is well
reflected in the current forecast POP values. PG
AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...Scattered thunderstorm activity
will be the primary concern through the entire forecast period at
the majority of the terminals. These thunderstorms will be hit or
miss at the terminals, and is best reflected with VCTS wording.
There will be a risk of showers, and have this as a prevailing
group with MVFR visibilities of 3 to 5 miles at the majority of
the terminals from 15z onward. If a heavier shower or a
thunderstorm does impact a terminal directly, brief periods of IFR
visibilities and gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots could occur. These
impacts will typically be less than 30 minutes in duration.
Additionally, a period of IFR or lower ceilings is once again
possible at KMCB around sunrise. These ceilings should clear by
15z as increased boundary layer mixing takes hold. PG
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/
SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Starting off with early this evening, progressive SE Gulf return
flow remains situated across the northern Gulf coast, generally
along the northeastern periphery of a weak tropical wave in the
northwest Gulf. Latest RAP mesoanalysis illustrates a long fetch
of 2.0"+ PW feeding into SE LA, with spotty showers and a few
storms all across the area. Fortunately, quicker mean storm flow
(~20kt) and mean storm layer wind direction (139/towards the NW)
offset just enough from the mean boundary motion (generally NNW)
helped these disorganized bands to propagate enough to reduce the
widespread flooding risk, regardless of anomalously high
atmospheric moisture content. Look for most of this activity to
steadily diminish going into later this evening/early tonight as
we lose supportive diurnal instability. However, latest HREF
members suggest some potential at isolated showers to persist,
especially near coastal locations and perhaps an increase in
coverage possible early Monday morning beginning before daybreak
to mid- morning - similar to what we saw today. Taking a closer
look at model soundings valid for early Monday morning, compared
to observed KLIX 12Z RAOB (modified) shows very little, if any
distinguishable differences in the vertical thermal and wind
profile. Generally speaking, expect a similar day on Monday with
convection ongoing early in the morning, becoming more widespread
through the mid/late morning and into the afternoon hours. HREF
6hr ensemble mean is coming in slightly less in QPF compared to
today - an indication that convection may be just a slight bit
less than what was saw today, but will still monitor for the same
threats including intense locally heavy rain rates, gusty winds in
any bands along outflow dominant boundaries (20-30mph) and a few
weak tropical funnel clouds/waterspouts.
Beyond Monday, nothing changes significantly in the synoptic flow
aloft other than just slightly lower total column PW (1.5-1.8")
due to some drying in the mid to upper-levels. This could limit
coverage a bit more going into Tuesday, but will maintain 40-60%
coverage. One thing to note regardless of slightly less coverage
is that the vertical wind profile does relax a bit more, leading
to slower 0-6km storm motion (4-6kts). Would have to still monitor
for locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding in
any slow-moving or training convection. Also during this time
frame, focus will be on a westward moving tropical wave
approaching the NE Florida/SE Georgia coastline. Not currently
anticipating any direct impacts to our area from this system, as
what is left of the circulation and attendant lift remains more
towards or north or east, but will keep an eye on it.
Meanwhile, going into mid-week on Wednesday, ridging that was once
anchored across the mid-Atlantic decays in response to deep
positive-tilted troughing digging into the Great Lakes/New
England area. This will reduce steering currents once again in
another stagnant environment. Noticing some model solutions tying
to spin up a weak mid-level low in the northeastern Gulf, but
never really gets its act together before this trough axis digs
deep enough south into the northeast to absorb the system along
progressive WSW to ENE flow aloft. However for us, much of the
same can be expected locally with another round of spotty, slow
moving showers and storms. Will need to continue to watch for
locally heavy rainfall as well but overall impacts remain limited
for now. KLG
LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
Going into Thursday, subtle 588dm ridging temporarily builds into
the deep south and extends east into the northern Gulf, owing to
subtle height rises. This may help to lower rain chances a tad and
keep any spotty shower/storm chances confined to mainly the
afternoon hours from peak heating. It`ll be Friday going into the
weekend where the next cold front teases us by approaching us
from the north, but washes out and slows down as a stationary
front somewhere near or across the northern Gulf coast. This may
be yet another window of widespread heavy rainfall - leading to
some level of flash flooding risk Friday through Sunday (possibly
beyond). Something to keep an eye on for now and will dive deeper
into details getting closer into the middle parts of the upcoming
week. KLG
AVIATION (18Z TAF DISCUSSION)...
Spotty showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will persist
across all area terminals this afternoon. Expect brief periods of
MVFR and IFR in any of these showers or storms due to reduced VIS
and lower CIG`s. Additionally, cant rule out some gusty downdraft
winds at the surface in excess of 20-30kts in any stronger storm.
Outside of this activity, flight categories will range from VFR
to MVFR. Beyond late this afternoon/evening, most of this activity
will diminish but additional development may be possible tonight
and into early Monday morning with similar threats expected for
all area terminals. KLG
MARINE...
Persistent southeasterly onshore flow continues across all marine
zones this evening, with nearshore showers and storms expected to
diminish after sunset. More activity is likely to re-develop
early Monday morning, with the main threats in any stronger storm
being gusty winds >34kts and a few waterspouts. This active
weather pattern will continue into the day on Tuesday and
Wednesday, perhaps in slightly less overall coverage. Waves/seas
remain slightly elevated tonight and into late Monday due to the
southeasterly fetch (3-5ft primarily for offshore zones) but will
diminish by mid to late week as wind flow and pressure gradients
relax with no additional hazardous weather expected at this time.
KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 89 71 90 / 20 50 20 30
BTR 73 88 72 89 / 30 70 30 50
ASD 74 89 73 89 / 40 50 30 50
MSY 77 89 77 90 / 50 60 40 60
GPT 76 88 74 88 / 40 40 20 40
PQL 74 88 73 89 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ080.
GM...None.
&&
$$