Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/27/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...
Primary uncertainty and concern with the TAFs is the potential for
thunderstorms at AMA. Latest radar trends suggest any thunder this
evening will remain southwest of a 10 mile radius surrounding AMA,
so have removed explicit mentions of thunder from the TAF,
carrying a VCSH to highlight the remote possibility. Similarly,
thunder may occur again tomorrow, so have carried VCSH mentions,
eschewing explicit mentions of thunder due to low confidence and
this falling well outside the critical TAF period. Otherwise,
expect northeasterly winds through the period at all TAF sites.
Cumulus around 5 kft will be favored as well.
Ferguson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021/
SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tomorrow Night...
Latest upper level WV imagery reveals cyclonic flow over the
central CONUS as a high amplitude positive tilt trough axis
remains over the western Great Plains and southern Rocky
Mountains. This feature continues to pull mid level subtropical
moisture across the Panhandle region on moist southwest flow
aloft. A 250mb jet maxima is also noted from western NM up into
the Great Lakes region. The right entrance region of this feature
will be over the Panhandle area tonight into tomorrow. This
combined with subtle shortwave impulses will provide large scale
dynamic lift for ascent through the weekend. The first impulse is
already kicking off thunderstorms in the higher terrain of NM
within an upslope flow regime north of a stalled front. The latest
surface analysis places the stalled front roughly near Wheeler to
Plainview, although north winds are noted as far south as
Childress to Morton which has been modified by early morning
convective outflow. Temperatures north of the front are starting
to come up into the upper 70s, and this is already beyond the 75
degree convective temperature suggested by the 12z KAMA sounding
which is likely aiding the isolated convection near Beaver, OK at
this time.
While it looks like the bulk of the severe convection will develop
along or just south of the front this afternoon (mainly staying
south of the Panhandles), storms will still be possible north of
the front (as we are already seeing). Most of the activity should
remain isolated through the afternoon north of the front, but
scattered to numerous storms are expected to move in off the
higher terrain this evening associated with the shortwave impulse
favoring the southern Texas Panhandle just north of the frontal
boundary. High resolution models tend to underplay upslope flow
environments, yet the HRRR and WRFFV3 and NAM have consistently
shown a good signal for heavy rain producing storms this evening
and overnight mainly along an south of the I-40 corridor. 90th
percentile plus PWATs and favorable moisture flux certainly
suggest these storms will be efficient precipitation producers.
MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg along with effective shear in the
30 to 40 knot range will support potential for a few severe storms
as well, with large hail up to ping pong ball size and 60 to 70
mph winds being possible. Storms may become elevated pretty
quickly this evening being north of the front, which should
mitigate the wind threat some (although a few model soundings
suggest storms could remain surface based promoted by large low
level theta-E advection). Either way, the main threat through
tonight will be the flooding, especially if the frontal boundary
retreats north resulting in more training of thunderstorms given
line parallel shear vectors. Storm motion will also be on the
slower side at 15 to 25 knots. For these reason, have matched up
with LUB and OUN and issued a Flood Watch for this evening and
tonight. This may need to be extended into tomorrow if storms
linger beyond 10z.
For tomorrow, the area is expected to stay on the cool side of the
stalled boundary with additional chances for late day and
overnight storms. The risk for severe storms is low tomorrow as
instability and shear are reduced due to lapse rates being more pseudo-
adiabatic. The flood threat will need to be watched as any storms
that form will continue to have plentiful moisture to work with
with modest storm motions at best. Temperatures will remain well
below normal for late June.
Ward
LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
To sum up the extended, we will have well below normal highs
(10-15+ degrees below) with cloudy/wet days as showers and
thunderstorms are forecast every day.
We are going to be stuck in an upper level pattern that will allow
for the base of an H5 trough to continually clip the Panhandles
over the next several days with pieces of energy. Forecast
soundings show an abundance of moisture through this time period
through precipitable water values that are approaching the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Lapse rates are pretty pathetic
during this time period which will allow for low CAPE values
until about Wednesday when MLCAPE start to approach 1000 J/kg.
Even then by Wed. the CAPE profile is very "skinny". Deep layer
shear through this period is pretty weak. Hodographs are very
small in the extended as well. Severe weather doesn`t appear very
likely through the long term. Severe weather chances could
possibly arise Wed-Fri as forecast soundings start to deviate
from the tropical look back to a more typical inverted-v sounding
for the Panhandles. Overall, severe weather chances look low in
the extended, especially the beginning of next week. Our biggest
concern may end up being the potential for flooding/flash
flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. Our minimum RH
values in the long term are going to be about 40%-60%, so not much
evaporation is going to occur; therefore, any soil that remains
saturated are only going to add to the problem of flooding if
training storms occur over areas that have already seen decent
rainfall.
Guerrero
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Sunday for the following zones:
Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...
Gray...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.
OK...None.
&&
$$
77/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to be found
across (mainly) southern MN into central WI. Most of the pcpn was
falling north of a sfc warm front with its parent low roughly across
northcentral IA. The system is making slow progress east, looking to
shift into southeast WI by 03z or so. The bulk of the pcpn locally
should also end by then. The atmosphere remains very juicy with warm
cloud depths in excess of 4 kft and PWs around 2 inches (nearly +2
via NAEFS anomalies). Low level moisture transport is off to the
east though while instability has been held in check, thanks to the
clouds and rain. Speaking of instability, MUCAPES via the RAP still
suggesting approx 500 J/kg possible into evening, keeping the
thunder potential alive. Not much wind shear to play with, but warm
front still hovering around, so will need to monitor in case a storm
can latch onto the front, gaining some localized helicity (and the
potential to spin up something). Threat looks pretty low at this
time though. Overall, still some moderate/heavy rain potential, but
movement and lack of deep/strong forcing will damper (pardon pun)
the flooding threat. That said, hard hit areas of northeast IA and
southwest WI will have to be monitored closely. Any additional heavy
rains would likely result in more flooding. Tinkered with putting
those locations under a flash flood watch for this evening, but with
the meso models favoring keep the bulk of the convection north of
there, have opted to not go that route.
Drier airmass slides in for Sunday with sfc Tds as much as 10
degrees cooler. Upper level trough axis holds to the northwest, with
elongated lobe of energy slated to stretch from the MN arrowhead
into central IA. Ribbon of instability co-located with the upper
level feature and along a north-south running sfc trough. Should be
enough to kick off a few showers and storms - mostly across northern
MN.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Blocking pattern over the west coast will keep the region under
troughing/cyclonic flow a loft through at least the middle part of
the new work week. Various perturbations will drop across the
region, sparking periodic shower/storm chances...with more of a
focus on the afternoon when daytime heating will lend a hand.
The GFS and EC suggest the omega block to the west will break down
by the end of the work week, but some potential for a closed low to
then develop - potentially getting cut off from the mean flow - and
wobbling across the region. Previous GFS and EC runs suggested this
which could have made for a showery weekend. However, latest 12z
runs more in favor of holding the low across the great lakes,
kicking east for the weekend. Thus, greater chance to stay dry. Not
a lot of clarity/confidence in how that will play out, but the more
progressive solution looking more reasonable at this time. Will lean
to the forecast that way.
Temperatures look to be cool to near their seasonable norms through
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
The slow moving area of low pressure had moved into western
Wisconsin late this evening and will continue to move off to the
northeast for the remainder of the night. Most of the showers have
moved past but still some lingering drizzle or light rain behind
the low. Ceilings have become a bit problematic as the lower
ceilings are no longer continuous over southeast Minnesota with a
mix of MVFR and VFR. Believe that as the low pulls slowly away,
the winds will relax even more allowing some fog to form and to
allow the lower ceilings to fill back in for MVFR conditions at
both sites through the night. The fog should dissipate by mid-
morning Sunday with ceilings lifting to VFR and hopefully staying
up through the remainder of the day.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
527 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon - Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Thunderstorm activity thus far has very isolated, but will increase
somewhat as the afternoon progresses per the latest high-resolution
models, i.e. HRRR and RAP. SPC mesoanalysis thermodynamic profiles
depict 250-500 j/kg SBCAPE with minimal shear over the CWA. Most of
the active convection has been over north- central CO where SBCAPE
is between 500 and 1000 j/kg. SPC progs a slight uptick in instability
later this afternoon, in agreement with the models. Temperatures were
averaging 15-20 degrees below normal with 60s and 70s. Winds were
northwesterly 10-20 kt, gusting to around 35 kt near shower activity.
Convection will decrease later this evening and overnight, then increase
once again with a shortwave tracking south over the CWA Sunday. NAM
SBCAPE peaks between 600 and 1200 j/kg east of the Laramie Range Sunday
afternoon with 0-6km shear around 20 kt. While the severe threat will
remain low, there may be isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds
around 40 kt, small hail and brief moderate to heavy rain. Shower/
thunderstorm coverage will diminish and shift east of the NE Panhandle
after midnight.
Monday will feature another shortwave moving south on the backside of
the north/central Plains upper trough. Scattered coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will be along and east of I-25 during the afternoon.
Below average temperatures will prevail through the short term with
daytime highs in the 60s and 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and
lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night - Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Much of the forecast remains on track with a dominant omega blocking
pattern staying consistent through middle of next week. Temperatures
will begin to warm once the overall pattern begins to break down and
the positive tilted trough finally pushes off towards the east. Should
begin to see temperatures return to more seasonable averages in the
high 70s to low 80s beginning on Wednesday through the later part of
next week. Overall, weak synoptic lift and some moisture advection
into the region provides the chance for isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms, primarily along the higher terrains in the southern
portion of the CWA. Hazards outlook remains minimal at this time, with
less than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE on any given day. However, could see a
few lightning strike with any storms that may develop. Main concerns
during the forecast period exist with possible fire weather on Friday
and Saturday across Carbon County as the RH values drop towards critical
threshold. However, winds do not look overly impressive during that
time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie, with occasional
thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 35 knots and MVFR until 02Z.
Thunderstorms in the vicinity until 04Z, with showers in the
vicinity after 15Z Sunday. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 04Z, then
to 23 knots at Rawlins after 15Z Sunday.
VFR at Cheyenne, with showers in the vicinity until 02Z, and after
16Z Sunday. Wind gusts to 25 knots until 02Z, then to 22 knots
after 16Z Sunday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, with showers in the vicinity until 04Z, and
after 15Z Sunday. Wind gusts to 25 knots until 04Z, and to
23 knots at Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney after 15Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021
The cool and unsettled weather pattern will continue through Monday
with a upper ridge to the west and upper trough to the east. There will
be periodic shower and thunderstorm activity, with the greater coverage
during the afternoon and evening. Warmer temperatures will return Tuesday
and last through the end of the week with isolated afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms possible across the southern Nebraska Panhandle
and portions of southeast Wyoming. Minimum humidities will fall below
15 percent later next week across lower elevations of Carbon County,
however wind speeds will be less than 25 mph.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1149 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.AVIATION...
Lingering pockets of lower intensity showers for the overnight
period, leaving conditions largely at VFR. Some increase in MVFR
stratus appears possible near daybreak, before gradually lifting
with daytime heating. Environment again favorable for some degree of
convective development Sunday afternoon, carrying the usual
uncertainty in terms of timing and scale. Forecast maintains a lower
probability mention attm.
For DTW...brief lowering of cloud bases beneath 5000 ft plausible
overnight with any passing shower. Window late tonight for stratus
development, before some mixing commences. Moist and unstable
environment again brings the potential for thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon, centered mid afternoon through early evening.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through the TAF period.
* Low in thunderstorms impacting DTW Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021
DISCUSSION...
Prior update discussion still generally holding and is repeated here
with minor adjustments based on trends this afternoon.
Concerns for today remain on the heavy rain/flooding potential as
well as severe storm chances this afternoon and evening.
Severe: Main warm front has pushed north of the area this morning,
now residing over the northern Saginaw Bay and central lower MI. As
a result, the warm sector moisture-rich airmass is still overhead
with the 12Z DTX sounding showing 1.88" of PW in addition to MLCAPE
slightly over 500 J/kg. Morning radar depicts a weak pseudo-warm
front feature lifting north across the Thumb area which coincides
with the nose of a weak elongated LLJ that is working northeast into
SE MI from IN/IL. Models continue to show this 20-30kt LLJ becoming
more compact while overspreading lower MI this afternoon. Jet
intensifies this evening with 40kts by 21Z and up to 50kts by 03Z.
Main consequence will be increasing low level shear as effective
inflow shear values increase from ~20-25kts early this afternoon to
30-40kts after 22-23Z this evening. Instability will be sufficient
for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development as MLCAPE
values range between 1000-1500J/kg. Hi-res model runs since noon
have backed off in the scattered afternoon thunderstorm development
out while main convective potential coming with the line currently
working into SW lower MI. This line is tracking a bit quicker than
the CAMs originally suggest and likely will reach the Saginaw Valley
by 20Z. Best coverage of showers and thunderstorms still looking to
be across the Saginaw Valley, Thumb, and I-69 corridor with more
scattered activity for areas to the south. Given the moisture and
strengthening LLJ, main threat will be for damaging winds either
from precip loading or bowing segments in the line this evening.
With SRH values between 100-200 m2/s2, LCL heights less than 600m,
and curved hodos a tornado or two will be possible this evening with
that convective line. Best potential for a tornado will be from
Flint north over the Saginaw Valley region and western Thumb. Some
small hail is possible given the instability and shear, but mid-
level lapse rates generally staying below 5C/km will limit any large
hail chances.
Heavy Rain: Heaviest rainfall today will likely be north of M-59 up
in the Thumb and Saginaw Valley areas. RAP shows increasing moisture
advection this afternoon with PW values reaching up around 2". Based
on how the hi-res models track convection ENE, training of storms
capable of heavy to torrential rain is possible across the Saginaw
Valley and Thumb allowing for rainfall totals up in the 1-3" range,
though a local amount near 4" can`t be ruled out. Lesser amounts are
expected south of M-59 with amounts only up to around 1". Any
locally higher amounts should stay below 2".
Longer Term Outlook (new discussion): Wet weather pattern continues
Sunday as yet another surface low tracks northeast across northern
lower MI dragging a slow moving cold front through SE MI later in
the day Sunday. Moisture-rich airmass remains over the region Sunday
with PW values lingering around 2" which will keep the potential of
torrential rainfall there in any thunderstorm Sunday afternoon.
Better chances Sunday afternoon, compared to this afternoon, for
breaks in the cloud cover allowing for a bit more insolation/heating
helping to increase potential instability. The CWA remains under a
Day 2 marginal risk as a result. Longer range CAMs try to get MLCAPE
values up around 1200 J/kg by 4PM. However in comparison to today,
bulk shear is much less impressive generally staying below 30kts as
the LLJ will have already departed into southern Canada. Severe
threat would be limited to strong wind gusts resulting from precip
loading. The cold front is likely to stall out somewhere in the
vicinity of the MI/OH border Sunday night before lifting north as a
warm front Monday as new surface low pressure develops over the
central Plains. Rain chances linger through most of the coming work
week as the central Plains low slowly tracks northeast through the
upper lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. This is quickly followed by
another low dropping southeast out over northern Ontario across
lower MI Thursday.
MARINE...
A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across Lake Huron this
afternoon with widespread showers and fog persistent across much of
the lake within the subtropical moisture in place. Low pressure
currently over Iowa tracks northeast along the boundary this evening
and spreads over northern Lake Michigan and the Straits tonight.
This will tighten the southwest pressure gradient over the region
with gusts to around 25 kt likely to occur over western Lake Erie
where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through this evening.
The low will also direct an additional surge of moisture into the
region from the southwest this evening with numerous showers and
storms likely across the waters. Any storms will cause heavy
downpours as well as a chance for gusty winds and locally higher
waves. Shower and thunderstorm activity wanes late tonight into
early Sunday as the low moves off into Ontario. There is an
additional chance for showers and storms during the day Sunday
however as the very humid air mass and frontal boundary remain
stalled out over the region. This overall pattern continues into the
early week, but rainfall looks to be less widespread and less
intense after Sunday.
HYDROLOGY...
The atmosphere will change very little through the weekend as a
frontal boundary wavers across the region with a subtropical airmass
overhead. These very moist conditions will hold through into Monday.
This environment combined with passing low pressure systems and
upper-level disturbances will result in several more rounds of heavy
rain showers in addition to periods of embedded thunderstorms. The
majority of activity today will be focused along and north of the I-
69 corridor as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves northeast
from SW lower MI into our area. Activity will be much more scattered
south of I-69. Rainfall totals north of I-69 through early tonight
expected to be in the 1-3 inch range though a locally higher total
near 4 inches is possible. These higher amounts will be dependent on
the speed and track of thunderstorms and if multiple rounds of
storms move over the same area. Totals south of I-69 expected to be
up around 1 inch. Any locally higher amounts should stay below 2
inches. Additional rain activity, heavy at times, will continue
Sunday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ361>363.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....99
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1013 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Showers continue its slow diminishing trend. The area that was
near Langdon has moved south toward DVL and dissipating at 03z.
Cluster that moved south from SE Manitoba thru Hallock/Roseau is
in western Marshall county and weakening to light rain showers,
but not before dumping a quick 0.52 inch at the NDAWN near Stephen
MN.
Otherwise quiet. Updated pops to reflect current conditions and
then dry things out all areas overnight and into Sun AM. Will re-
do it all again Sunday afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Starting to see the number/coverage of showers/isold t-storms
diminish since 22z. There is one cluster that was strong in SE
Manitoba dropping south into Pembina and Roseau areas but that too
is weakening. Will see how far these get south. Otherwise will see
continued slow decrease in number of showers thru the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Thunderstorms remain possible through the short range periods with
best coverage tending to be in the daytime periods. Severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated at this point, but small hail and
brief gusty winds could still be possible with some thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening.
Today-Tonight: Positively tilted mid/upper trough extends across our
CWA with eastern axis over our east supporting ongoing showers and
possible isolated thunderstorm activity. CAM consensus favors
convergence near the surface with a lull in coverage near the RRV,
however once initiation gets underway widely scattered coverage may
be possible pretty much anywhere in our CWA. Near the subsident
region of the trough good clearing has supported destabilization
ahead of the next mid level impulse rotating through northwest flow
on the backside of the midlevel trough over central ND.
ML CAPE values 500-1000 J/KG are shown on SPC objective analysis,
and 1000 J/KG-1300 J/KG may become more common based on RAP trends
over the next 3 hrs. Still, mid level lapse rates are weaker (under
7 C/km), effective shear is weak (under 20kt), and DCAPE is under
1000 J/KG. This lowers confidence in any severe potential, though
there may be enough instability for a few stronger updrafts capable
of small hail/brief gusty winds. PWATs 1-1.2" support efficient
rain rains with activity that develops and while the QPF signal is
all over the place (as reflected by lower mean HREF values) some
locations could receive greater than 0.25" rainfall. There should be
a rapid decrease in coverage as the sunsets and we loose favorable
low level lapse rates, though guidance does snow potential for a few
lingering showers due to better mid level moisture and some forcing
aloft.
Sunday: A stronger period of positive vorticity advection on the
back side of the mid level trough may support better shower and
thunderstorm coverage, initially developing upstream over
Saskatchewan or northwest ND. This may organize in to a cluster of
showers and embedded thunderstorms, with varying depictions of
coverage/track between CAMS. Instability is weaker that today,
possibly due to greater cloud cover initially in some models,
however decent PWATs remain in place support at least localized
beneficial rain rates dependent on evolution/timing. Temperatures
remain seasonal across the region Sunday with most in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
The positively tilted trough will remain stagnant over our area,
blocked by two high pressure systems to our west and (eventually)
east. This pattern will allow shortwaves to roll through the area.
Greatest chances for precipitation in the long term will be on
Monday, with chances for thunderstorms being highest then as well.
CAPE is sufficient for thunderstorms, however, not strong or
severe ones. Ensembles are still in disagreement in terms of
moisture availability, and even the amount of instability
available, so confidence is not the highest.
Showers could linger into the rest of the week, however, guidance
is starting to merge on a solution that has the shower activity
ending mid-week. Temperatures will stay around the low to mid 80s
throughout the week, especially warming as the ridge to our west
builds in into July. The pattern will also quiet down, making the
end of June and beginning of July a nice period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
VFR anticipated for most areas thru the pd. Now near or in any of
the showers or t-storms conditions will be briefly lower mainly
due to vsby in rain. Light winds thru 12z Sunday, mainly north but
5 kts or less.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
939 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Quasi stationary frontal boundary remains draped just to the NW of
the KS Turnpike. To the southeast of this boundary, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms continue over extreme SE KS. As the
overnight progresses, latest RAP shows low level moisture transport
in central OK, shifting NE into SE KS and SW MO after midnight. Most
of this moisture transport will be shunted to the east of the
forecast area into SW MO, but back edge of this increased low level
moisture will lead to an uptick on the showers and storms over SE KS
after midnight. Could see some of this activity "train" over extreme
SE KS through early Sun morning, which may lead to some renewed
flooding threats. Given precipitable water values of 200 percent of
normal, some of the showers and thunderstorms may lead to very
efficient rainfall producers and with pockets of heavy rainfall,
that may produce flooding. So will keep the flood watch going over
SE KS for now.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Scattered showers and storms quickly redeveloped toward the
noon hour within a moist and weakly capped pbl. We`re even seeing
more isolated or widely scattered activity in the post-frontal
airmass early this afternoon as we remain weakly capped with some
lingering post-frontal low level moisture.
Tonight-Sunday...showers and storms are expected to be most numerous
across southeast KS again tonight as we remain within the entrance
region of the H3 jet and we continue to see the anomalous moisture
with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. There may be a lull through the
evening before activity redevelops later tonight. Deep layer warm
cloud depths around 4000m will continue to support efficient
rainfall with no change planned to the ongoing flood watch. Little
change in sensible weather is expected across the forecast area
as we move into Sunday as the diffuse frontal boundary remains
draped over the area keeping the higher pbl moisture along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike. Any breaks in the cloud cover will
result in scattered showers and storms quickly redeveloping once
again with the potential for pockets of heavy rainfall lingering
across the area.
Mon-Tue...Very little change is expected in the large-scale pattern
as we move into the early portion of the week with a persistent
mid/upper trough remaining nearly stationary across the Central High
Plains and a mid/upper ridge helping to funnel deep tropical
moisture over the central CONUS. The mid/upper trough may edge
slightly closer to the area bringing increasing chances for more
widespread precipitation to the region. This setup will continue to
support efficient rainfall for areas that remain saturated as PWATs
remain at or above 2 inches with deep layer warm cloud depths
progged to persist over the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains is progged to move
eastward toward the middle of the week, while plentiful low level
moisture remains entrenched across our region. So, even with
rising heights we could still see some diurnally driven showers
and storms linger through the middle and latter portion of the
upcoming week. As we move towards the end of the work-week and
into the weekend, a shortwave trough moving over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area will drive a cold front
south across the Central Plains and delivering a drier airmass
which should result in a return to dry weather conditions towards
the end of the forecast. Seasonably cool temperatures are
anticipated through the period with highs mostly in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
A diffuse frontal boundary remains draped southwest to northeast in
the vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike. Showers and a few storms have
developed in the vicinity of this boundary across south central KS,
but think most of this activity will stay to the SW-S of the KICT
taf. Will go with a VCTS for any storm that ventures close. As the
late evening progresses, latest short range model suggest that low
level moisture transport and potential convective activity will
increase across SE KS, potentially affecting the KCNU and possibly
the KICT taf sites after 06z. So will go with a VCTS for the KICT
taf and prevailing SHRA/VCTS for the KCNU taf where the convection
looks more likely. MVFR and some IFR cigs will be likely under the
showers and storms impacting KCNU into the late night and early
morning hours on Sun.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 68 82 66 82 / 30 30 20 40
Hutchinson 65 84 65 82 / 20 10 10 30
Newton 66 83 65 82 / 20 20 20 40
ElDorado 67 81 66 82 / 40 40 30 50
Winfield-KWLD 68 80 66 82 / 60 60 40 50
Russell 62 84 64 83 / 10 10 10 30
Great Bend 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 30
Salina 64 87 65 83 / 10 0 10 30
McPherson 64 84 64 82 / 20 10 10 30
Coffeyville 69 81 69 83 / 80 90 70 70
Chanute 69 80 68 82 / 70 80 60 70
Iola 68 81 68 82 / 70 70 50 70
Parsons-KPPF 69 81 68 82 / 80 90 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Challenging aviation forecast this period, with scattered
thunderstorms ongoing at issuance impacting MAF. Additional
widespread storm development is expected tonight between 04-08Z,
thus have included VCTS mention at all but INK where confidence
is lower, and will amend with TEMPO mention as needed. Winds will
be erratic and at least intermittently gusty INVOF storms/outflow
boundaries, with winds exceeding 40kt possible with the stronger
storms. Heavy rain/blowing dust could also produce localized
MVFR/IFR conditions. Of additional concern are MVFR ceilings that
look to impact much of the region late tonight through Sunday
morning, with slow improvement expected through 18Z. Additional
storms will be possible Sunday, however, will handle TS mention
for Sunday afternoon in later issuances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
A mesolow apparent in both mesoanalysis and in KMAF WSR-88D data is
currently located over the northwestern Permian Basin, with a weak
boundary trailing east-northeastward from this low across the far
northern Permian Basin and the southeastern South Plains, while a
dryline of sorts extends south from the mesolow across central Pecos
County and from there to the Big Bend region. CI over the Davis and
Chisos Mountains has occurred, and we expect more scattered
development over those elevated heat sources later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, back up across the Permian Basin, conceptual models and
CAMs differ somewhat, with the HRRR and the NSSL WRF most aggressive
in generating scattered thunderstorms over the northern and central
Permian Basin by late afternoon and evening. However, there doesn`t
seem to be much of a surface focus for CI. In any event, forecast
model soundings initially indicate an inverted-vee structure and
generally weak shear, meaning that the most likely severe scenario
will be in the form of downbursts (especially with storms where
descending KDP cores are shown near the freezing level of about 17
kft). DCAPE around 1800 J/kg is indicated in the latest SPC
mesoanalysis, further supporting the potential for a severe wind
threat across the northern and central Permian Basin. As to hail,
we`d need to get 50 dBZ to about 25 kft for marginal severe stones,
but melting will take a toll as wet bulb zero heights around 10 kft
will be present. Brief heavy rain and frequent lightning are also
likely. The severe threat should end by early evening as the PBL
decouples, MLCAPE decreases, and convection is no longer rooted in
the boundary layer.
Outflow boundaries from this afternoon`s convection will complicate
matters further overnight as an approaching subtle short wave trough
provides a modicum of lift. Colliding outflow boundaries as the PBL
collapses and winds above the PBL go supergeostrophic will continue
feeding CAPE to storms later this evening. The HRRR indicates a
strong signal of westward moisture transport of 13-14 g/kg at 850
hPa opposite the upstream Corfidi vectors north of the front over
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin, implying
a locally heavy rain threat will exist over these areas overnight.
We`ve not pulled the trigger on a flash flood watch given dry
antecedent conditions, but this could change pending development of
convection overnight. QPF overnight is a challenge and have gone
with a blend of WPC guidance, HRRR, and NBM.
Behind the front, gap winds through Guadalupe Pass will be a hazard
for high-profile vehicles. Sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with
gusts to near 60 mph are possible, and a High Wind Warning remains
in effect tonight for this area. Motorists traveling along US
62/180 are urged to exercise caution while going through the Pass
tonight.
The boundary will sag slowly southward overnight and into Sunday,
and with a moist and conditionally unstable airmass over virtually
all of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, showers and
thunderstorms are a good bet for most of the area Sunday and Sunday
night. Storm total QPF will be highest over the northern Permian
Basin and the western Low Rolling Plains, were over two inches of
rain is forecast.
Along with the chances of rain, afternoon highs Sunday and Monday
will be below normal, with most areas staying in the 80s under
mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows near normal are reflected well
in NBM guidance and have stayed close to it.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Focus along the stalled frontal boundary will continue through the
first half of the week as low-level convergence and weak shortwave
pulses moving overhead will be the primary drivers for extended
precip chances. A broad ridge focused off the Eastern US will extend
all the way back to Texas, leading to a shift in the low level flow
pattern to a more southeast return flow setup. Global models are
insistent on pooling fairly robust moisture field into the western
rolling plains, eventually sneaking all the way out to the Upper
Trans Pecos by Tuesday/Wednesday thanks in part to a weak sub-
tropical disturbance migrating into the Lone Star state from the
Gulf of Mexico. The front stalling along the lee of the mountains
out west will provide a prominent forced ascent signature for the
high terrain and adjacent plains with numerous showers and storms
likely to consume areas west of the Pecos River and north of I-20.
PWAT anomalies of 1-2 standard deviations above normal will be
common Mon-Wed next week across much of the forecast area. Skinny
cape with the robust moisture field reflects a greater than normal
chance for heavy rainfall, which breeds localized flooding in these
parts. This is the case for the beginning of the week, especially
for areas like the Eddy plains where all the ingredients are coming
together for a soaker. Temperatures will be anywhere from 10-15
degrees below normal for the first half of the week before slowly
scaling back towards normal for the extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 69 82 68 83 / 60 50 60 60
Carlsbad 68 78 65 79 / 60 70 70 70
Dryden 73 89 70 88 / 20 20 40 30
Fort Stockton 70 86 68 84 / 40 50 50 50
Guadalupe Pass 63 75 61 73 / 40 70 70 60
Hobbs 66 77 64 79 / 70 70 70 70
Marfa 63 80 60 79 / 50 60 50 50
Midland Intl Airport 69 83 67 82 / 60 60 60 60
Odessa 69 82 67 82 / 60 60 60 60
Wink 71 84 68 85 / 50 70 60 60
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Sunday for
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...84
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
814 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Surface high pressure continues to ridge across Florida keeping a
persistent easterly wind flow over the region. This led to another
day of showers and storms developing over the east coast of Florida
and traversing westward through the afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms caused some heavy downpours and winds around 25-35
knots. Some showers and storms will linger for the next couple of
hours, then pushing out over the gulf waters and clearing conditions
expected over the land areas for overnight. Models are bringing in
some slightly drier air on Sunday, which will bring some slightly
lower rain and storm chances, but still a 30-50 percent chance
possible, especially over SW Florida. Made some changes to POPs
through the night to reflect current radar and HRRR guidance. No
other changes needed.
&&
.AVIATION...
Will hold VCTS at all terminals except TPA/PIE through 03Z, then VFR
conditions expected through Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and
storms possible again on Sunday, so will hold VCTS at all terminals
after 18Z. Predominant easterly wind flow at 10 knots or less
expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period.
Easterly flow remains through early Wednesday, then becomes more
south-southeast for later Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge axis
shifts a bit to the south. An afternoon sea breeze will also be
possible near the coast each day with generally scattered
thunderstorms. No headlines are currently expected, but winds and
seas will be higher near the storms.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 93 74 92 / 30 40 20 60
FMY 73 92 73 91 / 50 60 20 70
GIF 73 91 73 91 / 20 50 0 70
SRQ 74 93 73 93 / 40 40 20 60
BKV 72 92 71 92 / 30 40 10 60
SPG 77 91 76 90 / 30 40 20 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis