Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
947 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will allow for scattered showers and a few storms this evening, before exiting to the northeast tonight. High pressure builds into the region for the middle of the week with seasonable temperatures and a dry westerly flow. Temperatures start to increase by the end of the week. A cold front crosses Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 945 PM Update...Any remaining showers will dissipate or move away from the region over the next 2 hours. Skies are clearing downwind of the mountains so it`s likely that we`ll have some locally dense fog to deal with until passing cold front stirs up the boundary layer a bit in a few hours. Otherwise, thunder is done for the evening. 627 PM Update...The threat for additional severe thunderstorms is now diminishing as convection over the past few hours has worked over the atmosphere. Instability will decrease through the next hour with effective shear moving offshore. Chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through 10 pm as a surface trough crosses the area. Clearing skies later tonight combined with plenty of low level moisture will lead to areas of patchy fog. Have updated PoP and weather forecast through tonight to account for latest mesoscale guidance and the diminishing chances for strong thunderstorms. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Current water vapor imagery shows a compact upper low over the Champlain Valley. Ahead of this feature there is a pressure trough oriented south to north through the forecast area. Convective showers have started to develop within this trough with more scattered thunderstorms expected with this feature as it slowly moves east this evening. Latest RAP analysis has about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE over New Hampshire into NW Maine where cloud cover has thinned. RAP analysis also shows a ribbon of of effective bulk shear to 35 kts just to the east of the axis of MLCAPE. As convection continues to develop the best shear will be shifting over the Gulf of Maine with only about 20 to 25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear remaining over the forecast area. The lack of shear will limit the potential for organized convection, however ingredients have started to become better aligned. MLCAPE is expected to remain around 500 J/kg over much of the area away from the coast with theta-e advection axis intersecting the MLCAPE and some shear along the ME/NH border eastward along the coastal plain. The last few runs of the HRRR have been highlighting an area of stronger cells from the White Mountains south to Strafford County with these cells moving eastward through western Maine from about 5 pm to 9 pm before the loss of heating leads to weakening trend. The surface trough will clear to the east tonight while troughing aloft lingers into Wednesday. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the trough bringing dry air into the area overnight. Dewpoints and temperatures will drop into the 40s north and 50s south. With clearing skies and closing dewpoint depressions patchy fog will likely develop tonight with best chances in the Connecticut Valley and along the coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Troughing aloft continues over the East Coast through Wednesday with an upper low closing off to our north. With the upper trough axis nearly overhead forcing for ascent will be well to our east with high pressure building to our west. Northwest winds will continue to usher in drier air through the day with mostly sunny skies expected outside of upslope clouds over the mountains. Highs will be in the 60s in the north with low 70s along the interior. Downsloping winds will allow for highs to approach the mid 70s near the coast and southeastern New Hampshire. High pressure will nose in from the west Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Dewpoints will be in the low 40s and with mostly clear skies overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s north to the low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level trough that has been slowly moving across New England will finally begin to exit the region on Thursday. However, there may be enough upslope flow over the elevated heat source to produce a brief shower or a sprinkle over the northern higher terrain during the afternoon hours. It will be seasonably mild with high temperatures in the 70s in most areas outside the high terrain. A southwesterly flow will develop on Friday bringing in an increase in temperatures and gradually beginning to increase humidity values. H8 readings around +10C, along with mixing under sunny skies will yield high temperatures in the lower 80s across the interior and our southern coastline. Along the Midcoast region, temperatures will be held into the lower to mid 70s as winds come in off the Gulf of Maine. The southwesterly gradient will allow a warm front o cross the region Saturday. As the atmosphere destabilizes with time, showers and scattered thunderstorms will break out across the region. With impressive dynamics and increased precipitable water values, this may be our only chance for widespread rainfall through this week. However, model ensembles continue to not be overly generous with the precipitation totals, especially in southern areas along or near the coastline. A few hit or miss scattered showers are possible on Sunday as an upper level trough exits the region. The best chance for a shower would be the northern mountains. After a dry start to the work week on Monday, a few more scattered showers will enter the region Tuesday as a fast moving upper level trough approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Cigs will lower overnight across Maine with patchy fog bringing IFR/LIFR conditions through the first part of tonight. Mainly VFR is expected tonight over New Hampshire except at KPSM where low cigs will bring a few hours of IFR/LIFR conditions. There is the chance for some patchy fog at KHIE and KLEB but confidence is not high enough to put it in the TAF. Winds shift out of the northwest late tonight bringing in drier air and VFR to all terminals by tomorrow morning with VFR prevailing through Wednesday night. Long Term...High pressure and VFR conditions through the end of the week with afternoon seabreezes. Friday increasing southerly flow ahead of a front could bring some advection fog to the midcoast. The front crosses the region on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will lower many areas briefly to IFR and LIFR. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds turn offshore tomorrow morning for improving visibility. Winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds with the exception being the potential for seas to approach 5 ft for brief period Wednesday evening along the outer waters. Long Term...Winds and seas will be below SCA thresholds through much of the period. However, there will be gusts to 25 knots as an increased southwesterly gradient set up over the region Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster/Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cannon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon showed a nice scattered cumulus field having developed across the region. Meanwhile, on water vapor satellite, there is an obvious short-wave trough moving south across the DFW region, which could be a source for lift. Forecast soundings from the RAP model indicate that the capping inversion may be overcome in some locations (due to a combination of the lift from the short-wave and increased instability from afternoon heating) for there to be small isolated showers/storms that develop late this afternoon, generally along and south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Since any showers/storms would be diurnally drive, any precipitation should end shortly after sunset. Meanwhile, expect afternoon highs today in the mid 90s. Tonight, despite dewpoints in the 60s, the light winds and clear skies should induce enough radiational cooling for the lows to drop into the upper 60s for most of the region. Wednesday, some warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge, a switch of surface winds to a warmer southeasterly direction, and mostly sunny skies, should result in warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Looks like the capping inversion is a little stronger tomorrow, so no showers/storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 We will continue with the mostly hot and dry forecast through the long term period. Highs will likely remain in the middle 90s to 103. The persistent high pressure ridge may budge some towards day 7, but that is uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A few showers and isolated thunderstorms around early this evening should dissipate after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light and variable winds overnight, becoming easterly at 8-10KT Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 69 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 69 95 69 97 / 0 5 0 5 Brownwood 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 68 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 69 94 70 94 / 5 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJH LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...SK