Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
631 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 618 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 There was an update to maximum temperatures for tomorrow as our high temperatures this afternoon were beaten overall by at least 2-4 degrees in all cities across the region. Laramie and Rawlins broke records for high temperatures today. Torrington tied their record set back in 2006. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Surface front extended from the OH/Mid-MS Valley to along the SD/NE border and into northern WY. A surface trough/dryline was aligned NW-SE from near Thermopolis to between Cheyenne and Laramie WY. Strong warming to the east of the front coupled with dew points in the 50s to low 60s has pushed the SBCAPE above 2500 j/kg. The effective bulk shear ranged from 35 to 45 kt along and east of I-25. GOES-W visible satellite imagery showed building CU over the Wind River mountains, with isolated CU along the Laramie Range. Most of the high-res CAMs show convective initiation over northeast WY this afternoon, with cell motion to the southeast. There remains a conditional severe weather threat along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and evening, with up to 20 percent coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds. High temperature records were already broken or tied at Laramie and Rawlins with 90 degrees earlier this afternoon. Tuesday will be warmest (hottest if you prefer) day this week as the center of the 500mb heat ridge is over the central Rockies. 700mb temperatures peak between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius during the afternoon, yielding high temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s. A stout capping layer between 750 and 800mb wil preclude convective development. The upper ridge will break down slightly on Wednesday, allowing a weak cool front to drop south into the high plains. High temperatures behind the front will cool 5 to 10 degrees. A few showers or thunderstorms may form over the southeast WY mountains late in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Thursday we begin to see a downward trend in temperatures as winds turn northwesterly. Afternoon highs are still expected to be very warm, in the 80s to lower 90s, through the weekend though, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. There`s a chance of scattered afternoon showers again, but spread and intensity are both uncertain at this time. Friday into the weekend, high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s, and chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There`s also a chance for some cooler temperatures early next week as models are picking up on an upper-level trough moving from the Pacific northwest, across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, dropping temperatures back to normal for this time of year. Stay tuned the next few days for more details. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Forecast concerns with the 00Z TAFs will be the possibility of near severe thunderstorms in the Nebraska Panhandle. Short term guidance shows thunderstorms developing over northeast Wyoming shortly after 00Z...tracking southeast into the Panhandle. For timing...used latest HRRR guidance. Storms could last for much of the evening before exiting the southern Panhandle after 08Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Warm to hot daytime temperatures (10 to 20 degrees above normal) combined with very low humidities (5 to 10 percent) and occasional gusty winds will keep the fire danger high along and west of the Laramie Range through Thursday. Isolated late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday, Wednesday and Thursday over the high plains. A front will move south into Southeast Wyoming and Western Nebraska Friday and stall over the region through the weekend. Expect cooler temperatures and isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Up to 5 percent of the Southeast WY mountain snowpack above 10000 feet remains to melt off and should do so by the end of the week. Runoff volumes are not expected to cause high streamflows. With little or no shower/thunderstorm coverage expected through at least Thursday, the risk for burn scar flooding will be limited to none. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...MAJ HYDROLOGY...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
951 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Summary: Warm and dry pattern continues, with a little relief possible on Wednesday night. Then, a short dry period is in store before another chance for precipitation returns Thursday night into Friday, and again on Sunday into Monday. A few sprinkles across the Arrowhead and far western Wisconsin counties are possible as a shortwave aloft exits to the east. As we head into tonight, daytime cumulus should dissipate and skies should clear as the ridge moves in. Tuesday and the start of Wednesday will be dry as the high exits the region and flow turns to the south. A cold front associated with a shortwave behind the ridge could bring some precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. A present LLJ in the area could keep moisture and instability sufficient for some overnight thunderstorms as well. Precipitation totals should only amount to a few tenths of an inch. An upper level low should move south over south central Canada on Thursday. A surface cold front moving with this system will present even more precipitation chances into Friday. Global models disagree on the placement of precipitation, but agree that the international border should receive precipitation. A high pressure moving in after the precipitation should keep us dry until late Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 VFR conditions are expected for most areas through the period. There were still some cumulus or stratocumulus clouds clouds out there this evening with bases VFR. These may stick around tonight per the RAP but are not expected to be widespread. There could be some patchy fog in spots as well, similar to what occurred this morning. A ridge of high pressure will be over or near the region on Tuesday providing VFR conditions. Colder air aloft will lead to a cumulus field that should be more widespread than today with ceilings developing in spots. Bases are expected to be VFR, although a brief dip to MVFR is possible early as the cumulus develops. Winds will be lighter than today with mixing not expected to be as deep and winds will be lighter in the mixed layer. && .MARINE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Northerly winds will occur tonight less than 15 knots. High pressure will be over the region on Tuesday and winds will become onshore during the day due to the weak gradient and position of the high. Speeds will again be less than 15 knots. Winds will become variable in direction Tuesday night with speeds decreasing to 10 knots or less then become onshore again Wednesday. The period from tonight into Wednesday will be dry with a chance for storms occurring Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 71 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 INL 48 77 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 52 80 54 86 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 49 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 50 71 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kossen AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
925 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The latest HRRR is now showing no precipitation working southward from the NE Panhandle affecting western portions of the CWA this evening. Regional radar confirming this with the last shower/ storm continuing to dissipate east of Sydney/Gurley NE. As a result have removed mention of thunder this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the short term period, above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions continue. There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm tonight in the western portion of the Tri-State area. Currently, a large amplitude ridge at 500mb remains over the Eastern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is located just off the Front Range with high pressure located to the east of the area. Neither of these features are forecasted to move today and will help keep the area warm, dry. and with a southerly wind. Highs should peak in the mid 90`s this afternoon. There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm this evening and into tonight. Current observations have an area of higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 60`s near the KS/CO border in the area. Guidance suggests that MLCAPE values could exceed 2500 J/KG this evening in the same area with very little CIN. Effective shear is forecasted to be near 45 knots in Eastern Colorado which is where guidance has suggested storms may form. The bigger issues for storm development are that there does not appear to be any major trigger mechanism and the ridge aloft is providing a broad area of subsidence. In spite of this, a few models suggest that localized areas of near surface convergence may occur. With the high CAPE and low CIN in the area, it would not take much trigger storms. But this is still only a possibility as there are plenty of other solutions that suggest nothing will form. Henceforth, have included a slight chance in Eastern Colorado/far Western KS to account for the potential storms. Should storms form, there is the potential for severe hail and wind gusts given that the parameters would allow for supercells and DCAPE values around 1800 J/KG would support strong gusts. But again this is dependent on storms forming. There is another lesser chance for storms late in the night from outflow from storms further north in Nebraska. But given the late timing and CIN in the area, have only included a 10% chance in far SW Nebraska and Yuma county. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 60`s with much of the area in the mid 60`s. Tomorrow, another warm and dry day. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer today as the area remains under the ridge aloft. There also should be no rain chance tomorrow as available moisture is expected to be lower and the subsidence aloft should remain in place. The lower amounts of moisture (and lower dewpoints) will also allow heat index values to remain below 100 so heat advisory criteria is not a concern at this time for Tuesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be similar to Monday night`s lows. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 At the start of the period, a closed low is located over northwestern Canada, with a trough extending south to the northern Rockies. This disturbance looks to flatten the ridge over the central CONUS, with it tilting from the Four Corners region towards the northern Plains. On Wednesday, the area of high pressure associated with the upper ridge expands from the Desert Southwest to the High Plains, allowing for a miserably hot and dry day. Some guidance is showing chances for a few showers/storms in the evening, but have kept the timeframe dry with the thought that the ridge should suppress activity. For Thursday, temperatures look even hotter for some as high pressure prevails and the Canadian system continues eastward. A cold front with this system approaches the region, enhancing the warm temperatures out ahead. The front nudges into the area Thursday night, bringing storm chances along and north of I-70. Friday through Sunday, the front lingers across the forecast area, with chances for showers and storms each evening. The Canadian low tracks east from the Upper Midwest to New England. In the meantime, northwest flow develops aloft as high pressure regresses to the Baja California area and weak waves pass through the flow. Northwest flow persists on Monday, and a stronger shortwave with a cold front traverses the northern and central Plains. This early week disturbance generates shower and thunderstorm chances on Monday. At this time, no days stand out for severe weather. Temperatures peak on Wednesday and Thursday in the 95 to 105 degree range, generally from west to east. Heat indices near 100 degrees are expected along and east of Highway 27 both afternoons, which could cause heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for too long. Stay tuned for more information as we continue to monitor the need for any heat highlights. Behind the Thursday night cold front, highs drop into the 80s through low 90s on Friday, returning to the 90s region-wide by Sunday. Monday`s cold front could keep temperatures down in the 80s. Low temperatures range from the mid 50s to the low 70s during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 503 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 At this time, VFR conditions for both terminals thru the forecast period. There is a low chance for a rw/trw to form, especially for KGLD, but confidence is low on timing/placement, so have left out for now. Winds for KGLD, southeast 10-20kts thru 06z Tuesday then south 10-15kts. By 20z, southeast once again 10-20kts. Winds for KMCK, southeast around 10kts becoming light/variable by 08z Tuesday. By 16z south-southeast 5-10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
923 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorms late today will become scattered on Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Rain chances drop off mid to late week with high pressure dominating. Warmer and more humid weather will return next weekend along with increased shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week. && .UPDATE... Marine layer associated with the sea breeze has pushed well inland, likely at it`s farthest inland extend. Any convection that reaches pushes into this sfc based shallow and stable marine layer will enter a diminishing trend. Thus, only very minor lowering POP tweaks applied for the remainder of this evening and into the overnight. the best (worst) convection should remain west of the ILM CWA this evening into the overnight b4 it demises. Very minor tweaks, if any, for temps tonight. Will continue to advertise the Marginal potential for SVR during Tue. Continued with potential for minor coastal flooding for the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Slow-progressing afternoon storms should devolve into a few lingering showers this evening as the leading edge of a weak cold front pushes into the area later this evening. Could see one or two damaging wind gusts right along the western edge of the CWA, but probability increases further west. Storms should become outflow- dominated as they approach the I-95 corridor and outside of heavy rainfall and lightning, threats should be limited. We may see one or two areas have a quick pulse along what`s left of the sea breeze, but SW/W winds (around 5-10 knots) during the day make this difficult to narrow down a location as the sea breeze has been moderately pinned near the coast. Lingering showers come to an end late this evening before the residual atmospheric waves move eastward and toward the coast overnight, hi-res models show a secondary surge of activity after 03-05Z. This is likely due to a combination of the residual atmospheric disruption from the earlier convection along with a few weak vorticity centers tapping into an elevated mixed layer. Advancing trough will also serve to deepen lapse rates overnight. While we are not expecting any severe weather, areas along the coast could wake up to wet ground and a few rumbles of early-morning thunder. Overnight lows in the low 70s, slightly warmer east of US-701 into the 72-74 range. Cold front progressing over the Appalachians on Monday night will stall over the Piedmont on Tuesday and bring a better chance of afternoon showers and storms in SW or W flow ahead of the boundary. Areas west of I-95 will likely stay dry as the front begins to push eastward, but confidence in the exact time of this movement and how clear the cutoff is low. Best chance solidly along the coast tomorrow with better upper-level winds near the base of an upper- level trough. Speed shear is likely to increase likelihood of afternoon severe weather and the potential exists for isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for some small hail. Cold front will push through the area Tuesday evening along with any lingering showers or storms. Cooler Tuesday night with some weak cold air advection and dew points dropping back down into Thu but latest HRRR doesn`t really hold , mainly along the Piedmont trough and the resultant. Northwest winds will back to the southwest by mid afternoon. No fog expected tonight. More of a westerly flow on Tuesday, with scattered convection at the end of the forecast period.e 60s. Impacts will remain limited from Tropical Depression Two which will quickly exit the area off to the northeast through Tuesday. Only direct concerns are related to the potential rip currents. At the moment, the generated swell is east around 2 feet at 8 seconds. This is good enough for Moderate Risk along east-facing NC beaches, but bathymetry west of Frying Pan shoals saves them from being particularly interested in this system. The rapid movement of such a weak system should also help to limit duration of impacts as what limited swell there is diminishes overnight into Tuesday morning. Expecting no influence from the system beyond late Tuesday or Wednesday and a return to Bermuda influence later this week. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build down from the northwest through midweek as mid to upper trough swings offshore. The trough axis will move through best shortwave energy riding by later on Wed. There will be some passing clouds, but the column remains very dry with pcp water values down near an inch. Therefore very limited, if any chc of a stray shwr, mainly right along the NC coast with convergence along sea breeze boundary. Overall, will see increased subsidence and dry air, especially once mid to upper trough swings offshore by Wed eve. Probably will see more in the way of some flat cu in the aftn. Dewpoint temps will be down closer to 60 with overnight lows in the mid 60s Wed and Thurs night. High temps Wed and Thurs will be in the mid 80s most places. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure moves farther off the Carolina coast on Fri with a southerly return flow taking shape into the weekend. Ridging aloft should keep a cap on convection on Fri and Sat, but moisture will begin to stream northward from the Gulf. By Sat night into Sun, pcp water values will return back up near 2 inches with moisture deepening through the column with increasing flow out of the SW, as we tap into tropical moisture associated with possible tropical system in the western Gulf. The evolution and track of this low will be a big player on the potential for pcp into the latter half of the weekend. For now, it looks like there will be an increasing clouds and chc of pcp Sunday into Monday with some decent rainfall possible. A return of warmer and more humid weather will come by the weekend with overnight lows getting back up around 70 or so. Temps will warm with plenty of sunshine Fri and Sat, reaching 90 or above. Clouds and pcp will dampen high temps a bit into early next week, holding them in the 80s most places. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated convection at best this evening and will indicate VCTS for FLO and LBT terminals. Sea breeze boundary pushing inland may flare up current convection and thus kept vcts possibility thru 03-04z. Pre-frontal trof pushes to the coast Tue morning with the actual CFP slated during the aftn inland and the evening at the coast. Tstorm dynamics a bit more favorable Tue given the mid-level trof axis reaching the Central/Eastern Carolinas. Have indicated a PROB30 across all terminals with tstorm gusts to 30-35 kt possible. The coastal terminals may have a better shot than the inland terminals for these gusts. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR thru the period. Brief bout of MVFR/IFR from isolated tstorms across all terminals ahead of a CFP Tue. Drying trend expected through the mid to late week period with only isolated convection at best. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday night...Tropical Depression Two will begin to push offshore this evening into Tuesday. Low-amplitude back swell will generate easterly swell around 2 feet at 8-9 seconds through the evening. Given the weak disturbance and the quick movement of the disturbance, not expecting significant impacts. Winds ahead of a cold front and associated upper trough will remain southerly around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots tonight. Winds will become NW on Tuesday evening behind a progressing cold front and potentially a line of showers or storms. A few storms could become strong or severe and generate winds at or above 34 knots. Gradient weakens significantly into Wednesday as northerly winds develop at less than 10 knots. Wednesday through Saturday...Weak low pressure along cold front off of the Carolina coast will drift off to the northeast through Wed. This will basically maintain a northerly flow with deep W-NW flow of dry air making its way. Winds will be more variable Wed into Thurs as low and front move away and weak high pressure migrates eastward, but will come around to the S as the high moves farther offshore late Thurs into Fri. Seas will basically remain between 2 and 4 ft with a minimal longer period E-SE swell mixing in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH MARINE...RGZ/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
941 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Local radar showed an isolated thunderstorm over western Scott county and a couple more over Catahoula and Concordia parishes. These storms will slowly dissipate over the next hour or two and no additional development is expected after midnight. Minor adjustments were made in the south for morning lows as the rain cooled temperatures were near forecast lows already. No other changes to the forecast were needed. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Considerably less convection over the area this afternoon compared to yesterday. What is out is there at the moment is confined to the axis of maximum 0-3km theta-e across central MS- northeast LA while the frontal boundary is lagging behind over northern MS. The HRRR has been showing the late start to this convection, but indicates an uptick in coverage over the south from now until early evening. Convection only expected over the far south Tuesday as the front spreads drier air into much of the region overnight. Heat indices having a hard time reaching advisory criteria this afternoon as expected higher dewpoints never materialized. Will, therefore, cancel the current heat advisory. Will keep the far south in a limited category in the HWO for heat Tuesday as heat indices flirt with 105 ahead of the boundary. /GG/ Wednesday through Monday: Again, not much has changed with the current forecast reasoning through the upcoming weekend. Model guidance remains in fairly decent agreement, even with regards to the area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slight adjustments to temperatures or other elements have been made, but the consensus blend of guidance looks to handle the general features well. Drier air in the wake of a "cold" front will keep POPs confined to the Gulf Coast through the back half of the work week, but then increasing humidity and chances for heavy rain are expected to return as the ridge breaks down and an area of low pressure moves north to the Gulf Coast. Per the latest National Hurricane Center outlook, this broad area of showers and storms currently over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a 70 percent chance for developing into a Tropical Depression during the next 5 days. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECMWF deterministic runs depict an elongated and unbalanced low pressure system with a displaced band of heavier rain and a corridor of stronger winds between the center of the low and the area of high pressure expected to be located off the east coast of Florida during the weekend time frame. These broad systems are hard to predict in fine detail, but the environment will generally support some organization over the next few days, and the model guidance has general agreement for how this one may evolve. The potential for tropical development will continue to be monitored, but there is increasing confidence for a wave of heavy rain potential and possible strong winds to affect the central Gulf Coast between Friday to Sunday regardless of how the system evolves. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week, especially if traveling along the Gulf Coast late this week and early next week. /NF/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Isold TSRA were noted on radar south of HKS-JAN and moving south. This activity is expected to remain west of PIB-HBG. Isold TSRA are expected just south of PIB-HBG Tuesday aftn. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday aftn. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 95 70 90 / 9 4 2 7 Meridian 70 95 66 89 / 12 5 3 6 Vicksburg 72 95 72 93 / 4 3 2 7 Hattiesburg 72 95 71 92 / 13 16 6 12 Natchez 73 95 72 93 / 15 11 3 10 Greenville 71 93 70 89 / 1 1 2 4 Greenwood 70 93 68 89 / 0 1 2 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/22/GG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .DISCUSSION...00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies and Plains while upper level troughs are situated over both the East and West Coasts of the United States. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak back door cold front extends from the Northern Plains back through Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 70s to middle 80s after highs in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. Latest short term trends suggest the aforementioned back door cold front will drop southwest into the Mid-South overnight into Tuesday morning. The 00Z HRRR suggests a potential for some rain showers over Northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River. However, confidence isn`t high enough to include in the forecast at this time and other model consensus suggests a rain free night. Will make some minor adjustments to overnight lows. Otherwise, forecast overall is in good shape. Updated grids will be available shortly. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ DISCUSSION... A much more quiet pattern in store for the Mid South. Relatively dry conditions will prevail across the area through the week. Some upper level ridging and other features to the east will lead to northerly mid level flow across the area. This will keep dewpoints down and keep deep moisture at bay through the week. Rain chances will be slim to none all this week. Temperatures will be in the 90s for the most part all this week. The warmest days would be on Thursday or Friday. The next big thing to watch will be the Gulf of Mexico where there could be some tropical development towards the end of the week. We will have to watch for the development and track of this potential system. We could see some rain from that system if it develops and takes the right track. At the same time a front is expected to be just to the north of the area. Some enhanced rain chances will probably be in play. It is way too early to tell. Have went with low POPs for the weekend and will have to adjust the forecast as we get more information. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots this evening and tomorrow, 5kt or less overnight. 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
739 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows an amplified mid-upper level pattern over the CONUS with a trough over the eastern Pacific and West Coast, ridging over the Intermountain West and Western Plains and a broad trough into the Great Lakes and ne CONUS. A shortwave and a h5 core of nearly -18C cold air diving se across the Western Great Lakes has been enough to initiate some isolated showers across mainly central portions of the U.P early this afternoon, where dew points are highest (in the lower to mid 50s). RAP analysis also indicates MLCAPE values of 250-500 j/kg over this area so there could be a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Effective shear is weak so no strong storms expected. As the shortwave continues to slide south late this afternoon/early evening, any showers will quickly dissipate. Under mostly clear skies and a building sfc ridge, expect a seasonably cool night with lows most places generally in the 40s. Northerly winds ahead of the sfc ridge axis will advect somewhat cooler air across the area on Tuesday while maintaining dry conditions. Under mostly sunny skies and mixing to near 5 kft, max temps well inland from Lake Superior should get into the lower 70s. Closer to Lake Superior expect readings in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 305 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 The extended forecast package remains unchanged for Upper Michigan as we have below to near-normal temperatures and average chances of precipitation on average for the next 7-10 days. Most of this week will remain dry, with the exception being Thursday and Friday as a couple of shortwave disturbances aloft will introduce a brief period of precipitation to the area. Behind the cold front that passes through, Friday night through the weekend look to be on the cooler side with mainly dry conditions also expected. Next week will begin with guidance trending toward the next upper level disturbance to affect the region with another round of precipitation and potentially keeping temperatures cool for a couple of more days. Surface high pressure will be over the Great Lakes for Wednesday as an upper level ridge axis propagates toward the area. We can expect slightly warmer temperatures for the afternoon high compared to Tuesday, due to 850mb temperatures elevating to levels of 9C to 14C. The warmest temperatures can be expected for the west half on Wednesday as the WAA is strongest over in that region due to 500mb height rises beneath the ridge. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as we will have the ridge axis located directly over the Great Lakes, and southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal passage. 850mb temperatures will rise to 16C to 20C by the afternoon, with decent mixing down to the surface. This will likely lead to breezy conditions for Upper Michigan. With the southerly flow and moisture advection into the region, it will likely feel muggy. One thing to mention is that increasing cloud cover will inhibit temperatures from getting very warm for Thursday. A shortwave disturbance will propagate toward the area by Thursday evening, bringing the next chance of showers and thundershowers to the area. Model guidance is showing two windows of precipitation where the first frontal boundary will pass through Thursday night, and the second frontal boundary is anticipated on Friday. This is due to the upper level flow bringing the shortwave trough axis over the northern Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night. Once this trough axis pushes to the east, surface high pressure will slide from the northern Plains over the Great Lakes. This will keep the area dry and cool for the remainder of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 738 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 VFR conditions are expected at all TAF locations through the forecast period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 321 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 High pressure building into the Upper Lakes winds will result in winds below 20 knots into early Thursday. By late in the week an approaching front will make for a breezier conditions Thursday into Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
818 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .SHORT TERM...Showers and thunderstorms have developed east of the Cascades, with two south-north oriented lines--one across the western Columbia Basin and north central Oregon and another line across Baker and Union Counties. Storms have produced mostly in- cloud lightning and occasional CG strikes with rainfall amounts up to 0.1 inch. A combination of rain cooled air and a tight pressure gradient has resulted in localized wind gusts of 35-45 mph and as high as 50 mph. Minor updates to the forecast were to bump up winds in a few locations and add the potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms tonight. SPC scaled back the marginal risk tonight with only a small portion of our forecast area, and I agree. An interesting frontal boundary will set up from the eastern Columbia Basin to the Blue Mtn Foothills tonight. Aided by a mid and high level jet with H7 winds of around 45 kts, there will be a 3-6 hour period of widespread precipitation after midnight. QPF amounts of 0.25-0.5 inch are possible. CAMS models have been consistently showing this band, although the HRRR has been on the lower end of the range with the latest runs. By 15Z, the band will be east and out of the area. Wister/85 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ REST OF SHORT TERM...through Wednesday...Tomorrow, the upper level trough will breakdown and lift to the northeast with the bottom of the trough passing over the PacNW. This will help to produce another round of showers mainly across the mountain areas and into the Lower Columbia Basin through the afternoon, then quickly diminishing by late tomorrow. Breezy westerly winds will develop across the forecast area by the afternoon as a marine push aided by the trough passage develops. Though winds will be increasing, fire weather concerns will be low as increased relative humidities linger. By Wednesday, the trough will be east of the region with a dry westerly flow aloft. Cloud cover from the previous days will give way to mostly cloudy skies and calm conditions at the surface. The dry zonal flow into the region will persist into the extended period, and will be the start of a drying and warming trend. Lawhorn/82 LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... The dominant feature heading into the extended timeframe will be a pronounced upper level ridge that looks to build into the Pacific Northwest from the Southern Rockies and Desert Southwest region. This will likely bring a resurgence of summer temperatures and perhaps increasing fire danger with breezy conditions and low humidity. From Thursday through Saturday, ensembles are in rather good agreement regarding the northwestward translation of the upper ridge. A clustering approach to assessing the ensembles reveals most of the disagreement stems from the exact placement of the upper ridge as it eventually makes its way north and west toward the coast. With heights rising each day through week`s end, expect a noted warming trend Friday into the weekend with a return of widespread 80s and 90s. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) from the ECMWF suggest that while hot temperatures will make a return, exceptionally or unusually hot conditions for mid to late June are not currently expected with values around 0.75 to 0.8. That being said, Heat Risk will increase to moderate levels for sensitive groups by Friday, so staying hydrated and limiting time outdoors will become important. In addition to the increasing heat, humidities will fall into the critical range, generally 10 to 15 percent across much of the Columbia Basin each afternoon. Winds look rather marginal right now for critical fire weather conditions, but moderate confidence (40% to 60%) exists that at least a few areas of the Columbia Basin will see overlapping critical wind and humidity, especially on Saturday. From Sunday into early next week, uncertainty increases as ensembles depict a weak troughy pattern developing as the upper ridge builds offshore. Ensemble clusters fall into two main camps, one with the upper ridge a bit farther east, maintaining hotter conditions. The second scenario is one where the upper ridge becomes centered offshore, allowing a weak troughy pattern to develop across the Pacific Northwest. The outcome will have a substantial impact on high temperatures beyond the weekend, with the first scenario maintaining hot conditions, and the second promoting something closer to seasonal normals. This is captured well when assessing NBM spread for maximum temperatures, which reveals highs ranging from the mid 80s to near 100 degrees depending on the ultimate outcome. Either way, the continuation of dry conditions and potential for low humidity will maintain an elevated fire risk heading into next week. AVIATION...00z TAFs...Lightning detection has picked up on a few strikes at this time near YKM, RDM and BDN and VCTS was added to these sites for the next couple of hours. Thunderstorms activity will spread north and east across south central WA and northeast OR...potentially affecting PSC, ALW, and PDT. Forecast soundings show a weak cap that may limit tstm development so will keep as -SHRA. The HRRR is also looking less and less on reflectivity returns with the latest runs. Winds will be shifting from the WNW to a more WSW direction this evening with gusts around 20-25 kts at PDT and ALW where a tight gradient is present. Although VFR conditions are forecast, there may be MVFR in areas of showers as well as RDM and BDN early Tuesday morning. Wister/85 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 56 74 46 79 / 70 30 0 0 ALW 59 76 51 81 / 80 40 10 0 PSC 61 80 53 83 / 70 20 0 0 YKM 53 77 46 82 / 50 10 0 0 HRI 59 79 50 84 / 60 30 0 0 ELN 50 72 46 79 / 50 20 10 0 RDM 46 69 39 79 / 30 40 0 0 LGD 53 70 44 76 / 70 50 10 0 GCD 52 74 44 81 / 50 50 10 0 DLS 56 76 51 84 / 30 20 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...85 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...85