Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/12/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
606 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A backdoor front currently near a KRTN to KSXU to KCVS line will
continue it`s southwestward progression overnight. This front is
expected to result in gusty east and southeast winds at KABQ and
KSAF, respectively, around sunset. Areas of MVFR cigs are possible
at KLVS and KTCC late tonight into Saturday morning, gradually
clearing off during the early afternoon. Wdly sct strong to severe
storms are possible for the eastern plains Saturday afternoon/evening
w/ large hail and strong outflow winds the main hazards.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will subside some with a cold front on the eastern
plains this weekend, but they will ramp up for central and northwest
areas as a high pressure system moves overhead this weekend into next
week. Record and near record high temperatures are expected during
this period, especially over central and western areas. There will
also be a chance for thunderstorms, especially along and east of the
central mountain chain Saturday where some storms may turn severe.
Severe storms may return to northeast New Mexico Sunday. After
spotty storms Monday, thunderstorm chances will increase mainly along
and west of the central mountain chain Tuesday through the remainder
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
595 dam high pressure will begin to move northward over New Mexico
through Saturday evening. The western and central areas of the state
remain dry and hot. The backdoor cold front has made its way into
northeastern New Mexico and as far as Clovis this afternoon. As the
front pushes westward this evening, it`s possible for the middle Rio
Grande Valley to get an east canyon wind with gusts of 25-30 kts.
Models show low clouds/fog sticking around east central areas
through mid morning tomorrow. The latest HRRR smoke runs also show a
possibility for smoke to return overnight.
On Saturday, the flow veers southeastward and brings in additional
moisture across the eastern plains. Temperatures will cool slightly
across the east on Saturday and a few sprinkles may be possible
during the morning. During the afternoon, steep mid-level lapse
rates, near 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 30-35 kts 0-6 km bulk shear will
aid in organized convection across northeast and east central New
Mexico, where there is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms.
Large hail and strong winds will be the primary threats. Storm
motion will be to the south and east. Some storms across the central
mountain chain will be on the drier side with little to no
precipitation. Near record highs continue across the west.
Storms will move eastward into Texas by late Saturday evening.
31
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A 500 mb high pressure system centered over Magdalena Sunday night
will migrate slowly northwestward over the Four Corners by Tuesday,
where it will remain until Thursday when it is forecast to drift over
northern AZ. This will result in high temperatures around 5 to 15
degrees above normal this weekend through the middle of the coming
week. Record and near record high temperatures are expected for many
areas with the potential for Heat Advisories over central and
northwest parts of the forecast area Sunday through the middle of
next week.
There will also be thunderstorms in the forecast. The area from the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward will be favored Sunday afternoon
and evening, where a few strong to severe storms will be possible. As
the upper high migrates over the northwest corner of the state,
better low level moisture will be drawn northwestward into the state
as well, with increasing thunderstorm chances, especially toward the
middle of next week. Storm motions will be from northeast to
southwest starting Tuesday, favoring central and western areas for
convection.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure centered over central Mexico will begin migrating
northward into New Mexico and over the Four Corners region over the
weekend and into early next week. A backdoor front currently draped
over eastern New Mexico and moist return flow will provide
additional moisture for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend. However, some of these storms may be on the drier side with
dry lightning possible over the central mountain chain. In addition,
slightly cooler temperatures can be expected across the east.
Up to 15 hours of single digit humidity will be possible on Saturday
across western areas, where near record temperatures are forecast.
Higher humidities push further west on Sunday, but Super Haines may
exist through at least Tuesday across the west.
As the upper high becomes placed over the Four Corners region, a
"reverse monsoon" pattern may set up, with the northern and western
high terrain most likely to see any precipitation. Towards the end
of next week, another boundary may slip into eastern New Mexico,
where more moisture may become available.
31
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1102 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will slowly push out
to sea this weekend. A cold front will sweep southeast across
Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon, with secondary shortwaves diving
across the region Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure
will then build into the area during midweek and pass off the
east coast by next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Convection in Warren and McKean Counties early this evening
dropped generally 0.5 to locally 1.0 inch per MRMS estimates.
With showers now dissipating and skies becoming clear, patchy
fog will become likely after midnight given the wet ground and
decreasing wind as high pressure builds in.
Elsewhere low stratus and cool, drizzly weather continues
across much of central PA this evening. Temps will drop just a
few degrees, running in the upper 50s through the overnight with
lingering clouds and weakening easterly flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A drier day is in store for most areas on Saturday thanks to
weak high pressure. Morning cloudiness will break for at least
partial sunshine, although there is some uncertainty regarding
how long the clouds will linger. On the most recent update, we
hold overcast skies through noon and partly to mostly cloudy
skies thereafter. The arrival of a weak shortwave trough during
max heating of the afternoon could produce spotty PM showers or
t-storm. Maxes bounce back to the near to slightly above
average range...a +10 to +25F delta-T vs. Friday.
Weak surface low moves northeast Sunday over Western PA along
with shortwaves in northwest flow aloft is enough to bring
likely POPs to Central PA with a chance for thunder. Stronger
short-wave and trough moves across Sunday night into Monday
continuing chance POPs.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still can`t rule out a shower in spots Tuesday associated with
the passage of another shortwave in northwest flow. After that,
all medium range guidance supports several days of fair weather,
as Canadian high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. Expect
low humidity, mainly clear skies and temperatures averaging a
few degrees below average Tue-Thu, with Thursday morning
potentially quite chilly directly under the surface high.
Moderating temperatures are expected by late next week, as the
high passes off the coast and a return southwest flow develops.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A moist easterly flow will result in persistent low clouds and
patchy drizzle over much of central Pa tonight. An area of rain
over southeast Pa should push south of the region around 06Z,
as associated low pressure system pushes off the coast. CIGs at
03Z are running in the IFR to low MVFR category and model
soundings indicate little change overnight. However, latest RAP
suggests some drier over NJ could work into eastern Pa late
tonight, perhaps causing rising CIGS at KLNS.
Significant improvement is likely Saturday, as easterly flow
weakens and low level moisture mixes out. Forecast soundings
indicate the most persistent low clouds will be over the highest
terrain along the spine of the Alleghenies. However, even KJST
and KBFD appear likely to become VFR by mid afternoon.
Outlook...
Sun...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Sct PM tsra impacts possible.
Mon...Sct PM tsra impacts possible.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Watson/Colbert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
854 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Satellite imagery and 500 RAP analysis showed southwest flow over
the High Plains this afternoon, with high pressure above central
Mexico and upper ridging extending from Texas to the Upper Midwest.
At the surface, high pressure prevailed across the region behind
last night`s cold front. At 2 PM MT, sunny skies were observed, with
north winds gusting at 30 to 35 mph. Temperatures ranged in the mid
70s to mid 80s.
For tonight, a closed low near North Dakota pushes northward into
Canada, allowing the upper ridge to amplify over the Plains. Surface
high pressure lingers, with temperatures falling into the 50s and
light and variable winds.
This weekend, ridging continues to build along the Plains and
Rockies as a large trough develops off the west coast. This results
in a warming trend (80s on Saturday and upper 80s/low 90s on Sunday)
and dry conditions. Some guidance suggests that a disturbance could
round the ridge both Saturday and Sunday nights. However, have kept
our forecast dry due to the lack of moisture in the area and the
likelihood that any precipitation should stay to our south.
Otherwise, skies are anticipated to be sunny/clear with nightly
temperatures in the 60s this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021
The long term period continues to look dry and warm. Heat index
values will need to be watched though they currently look to be
below 100. There also may be a few disturbances through the week and
a pattern shift towards the end of the period.
The pattern remains the same as previous forecasts with a high
amplitude ridge aloft over the West-Central CONUS. This ridge will
remain in place through Wednesday before retrograding slightly to
the west and deamplifying as a cut-off low moves east across South-
Central Canada. Near the surface, high pressure is expected to set
up over much of the Plains with lower pressure over portions of the
Rockies and to the southwest. The lower surface pressure should stay
far enough away from the area to not really affect sensible weather
conditions though a few disturbances may move off the Front Range.
In short, with the ridge aloft and high pressure near the surface,
the area will be dominated by subsidence and remain dry.
Temperatures are also expected to be above average for this time of
year in the 90`s. With lower dewpoints than this week, temperatures
will likely be slightly higher and a lesser chance of morning
clouds/fog than this past week. However, while the chance is lower,
cloud cover could still develop in the mornings with an easterly
component to the wind and dewpoints reaching the lower 60`s. If
morning cloud cover develops, it will hinder high temperatures
similar to this past week. Another thing to keep an eye on is
guidance suggests a few low pressure systems could try to move off
the Front Range. But they would likely be relatively weak and in an
unfavorable environment to produce storms.
When the upper level pattern changes later in the week, there could
be a few changes to sensible conditions though relatively warm and
dry weather still appears likely. First the ridge axis shifts west a
bit which may lower the strength of the subsidence aloft. Second,
there is suggestion that a low pressure system potentially in
combination with a cold front could move through Thursday. This is
reflected in the current forecast with high temperatures for Friday
around 90 instead of in the 90`s. Precip chances still appear to be
low, but it will need to be monitored if more moisture can move into
the area or if the system can strengthen should it form.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 854 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021
...Optimal Aviation Weather...
VFR conditions /clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds will gradually veer to the E (by
sunrise) and SE (late Sat morning).. remaining SE and increasing
to 12-15 knots during the afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1015 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend, and with subtropical moisture lingering over the region,
they will pose a threat of localized flash flooding. A front will
settle across the region early next week, promoting a slight chance
for showers Monday and Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions can be
expected those days, but somewhat drier and cooler high pressure
will return by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 10pm EDT Friday: Thunder has once again ended around the area
this evening, though an isolated thunderstorm will still be possible
overnight. Winds in the area are light and variable, with some fog
possible by morning in fog prone areas, especially mountain valleys.
With the upper trough positioned over the area tomorrow and the
diffuse frontal zone expected to sag into western NC, convection
should again blossom across the CWA Saturday afternoon, with likely
PoPs again advertised in all areas. In terms of hazards: more of the
same, with the threat of locally excessive rainfall persisting.
There may be a slight uptick in the threat of pulse severe storms,
particularly over the upper Savannah River Valley and Lakelands,
where guidance suggests an increase above the modest levels of
instability over that of the past several days. Temps will remain
around normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of midday Fri: As front continues to slowly sag south across SC/GA
Saturday night into Sunday morning, a weak coastal low is expected to
develop via the shortwave near the NC/SC coast. That development,
along with sfc high over the Mid-Atlantic, still looks to bring an
easterly component to the low-level flow, which leads multiple
guidance sources to show some continuing convection near the Blue
Ridge Escarpment into the night, in addition to what develops near
the front. The 12z HRRR and NAMNest however are not too excited by
this possibility, so will keep PoPs low; the concern would be for
possible anchoring of cells along the Escarpment in that scenario;
MBE vectors are very short as it is.
The weak easterly flow will continue into Sunday, but diminishing
and/or backing to a less upslope direction as the low drifts
offshore. The shortwave looks to be south and east of the CWA;
heights should rise as it is replaced by an extension of the deep
ridge over the Rockies/Plains. Dewpoints probably will be a tad lower
but still and most likely remaining in the 60s. Midlevel height rises
imply poor lapse rates above the PBL which, given lack of a trigger,
suggests PoPs close to climo. Still looking at a bit of a wildcard
with models depicting an unstable warm sector across the upper OH/TN
Valleys ahead of a seasonally respectable cold front. Earlier runs
suggested that the resultant activity could impinge on our mountain
zones late Sunday or Sunday night, but this depiction has generally
diminished. Deep shear and weak forcing just don`t look all that
supportive of an MCS threat. Profiles will be somewhat drier Sunday
than Saturday, so heavy rainfall potential may be slightly reduced
although soils may be wetter after still another day of storms, so
can`t say we won`t exactly be out of the flash-flood threat window.
Sfc-midlevel theta-e lapses will be a bit stronger, so pulse storm
wind damage threat may be a bit greater. Max temps will trend a
little warmer compared to Saturday, near to slightly above climo.
By Monday, the front appears to reach the CWA, as it picks up a
little bit of a boost from a shortwave approaching from the Great
Lakes and deepening the trough across the NE CONUS. With winds
turning northwesterly through much of the mid to upper levels, deep
drying does occur on the "cool" side of the front. Most of the models
depict a convergence zone across the Carolina/Georgia Piedmont, and
small PoPs will follow. Similar to the trend noted for Sunday, flood
threat may diminish a bit in lieu of improving microburst threat
where the drier air is able to work in. Downsloping and increasing
thicknesses still look to produce max temps in the lower 90s for much
of the Piedmont, but despite dewpoint pooling potentially keeping
values in the upper 60s there, heat index concerns are not expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Fri: The drying trend will continue Monday night as cold
front continues to push south and east, and dewpoints/PWATs continue
to tumble across the CWA into Tuesday, looking likely to remain low
thru the remainder of the period. A shortwave will swing across the
area Tuesday on the periphery of a cutoff low over Quebec; the
combination of this feature and the front leads to model QPF response
mostly to our east, but we will maintain small PoPs over the eastern
half of the area. Above-normal temps persist in downsloping flow Tue.
Unmentionably low PoPs are fcst from Tue night to at least early
Friday as continental sfc high migrates across the eastern CONUS, and
max temps fall back to near normal. Various models depict a
tropical/subtropical low approaching the Gulf Coast late in the week,
but any moisture associated with it looks to affect our area after
the end of the period, if at all.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Some areas of active convection continue this
evening at a level a little above recent history. Gusts from
convective outflow currently affecting both KGSP/KGMU and KCLT. Out
flows are expected to last less than an hour, with further impacts
from storms more limited subsequently.
Upper system that has been driving afternoon thunderstorms for
several days moves east on Saturday, along with broad frontal zone
across the region. Axis of surface high pressure directly behind
exiting trough will make winds northeasterly at KCLT by early
Saturday morning. Reduction of moisture on Saturday will be slight,
with afternoon thunder still expected most areas, though with some
reduction in intensity. Activity around KCLT may be particularly
weak on Saturday as KCLT will be behind back door front, and will
experience the leading affects of drying. Outside of gusts from
convection, southwesterly winds ahead of frontal zone, and
northeasterly winds behind it will be limited to 5 to 15 kts.
Fog and reduced CIGS will be possible in the morning due to moist
airmass, with the best chances in mountain valleys and other fog-
prone locations.
Outlook: Modest drying moves in Sunday into next week. This will
result in less coverage of diurnal convection each day, such that
little in the way of convection is expected Tue and Wed. The
potential for overnight/morning fog/low cigs should become
increasingly confined to the mtn valleys next week.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 98% High 80% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Low 48% Low 58% High 90% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 94% High 82% Med 69%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...JDL/WJM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...WJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
942 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing wave is expected to trigger some light rain over
southern New Hampshire tonight. High pressure returns for part
of the weekend, but scattered afternoon showers may return on
Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure forming nearby will keep
conditions unsettled early next week with greatest chances for
showers Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930PM Update... Adjusted PoPs based on radar as well as the
latest few runs of near term guidance such as the HRRR. Radar
and ASOS observations indicate that rain continues to fall
across southwestern NH such as KEEN, and therefore PoPs were
increased some in these locations. Expecting showers to become
more widespread after midnight and move as far north as the
Lakes Region of NH and ME. Other than some minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover, the rest of the forecast remains on
track.
Previously...
630 PM Update...No significant changes to the forecast at this
time. Showers are expected to increase in coverage across
southern NH over the next few hours and the going forecast
handles this well. Added some patchy fog to some central and
northern zones overnight where cloud cover will be thinner.
Previously...
A piece of a weak and elongated shortwave continues to transit the
area this afternoon, bringing widespread cloud cover and a few
showers from central New Hampshire to the Maine coastline. These
showers will move offshore over the next few hours, and a break in
the precip will last through the evening. Then another weak wave
will move in after midnight and bring a more significant round of
showers across mainly southern areas.
There remains poor consensus among the models on how potent and
long lasting these showers will be, with some of the high res
guidance like the HRRR suggesting rain would continue falling
through after sunrise tomorrow morning, and many areas of
southern NH seeing over 0.50in of rain. This is the higher end
solution, which is quite possible, but due to the convective
nature that this rain would fall I elected to continue with
rainfall totals closer to 0.25" for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The system will pull away during the morning hours, with increasing
sunshine progressing from north to the south through the day. The
jet stream will be progressing eastward overhead tomorrow afternoon,
which will likely provide enough instability for a few pop up
showers tomorrow afternoon across interior areas. Partly to mostly
sunny skies will be observed as a weak ridge of high pressure crests
New England, but a weak passing trough tomorrow night will bring
increasing clouds tomorrow night, limiting how far the temperatures
will fall. Another weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build
in by early Sunday morning, bringing some clearing by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging at 500 MB settles over the central and western CONUS next
week, with a trend toward troughing over the NE CONUS, especially
the early to middle part of next week. Latest models run are
trending toward a somewhat more progressive patter, which will
focus the unsettled period mainly Monday into tuesday, with
some drying conditions mid to late week. Other than Monday,
which looks a little cooler given deep southerly flow, temps
should stay fairly close to normal through the period.
On sunday, sfc ridge to our S shifts E, and this will allow for
mainly dry day with lots of sun in the morning and increasing
clouds in the afternoon. It will warm up briefly with highs in
the mid 70s to low 80s. There is the chance of a shower or
thunderstorm mid to late afternoon, mainly in the CT vly, as
next system approaches.
This system will be developing as fast moving 500 MB wave moves ESE
out of Alberta, while closed low dives due south from Hudson
Bay, with a weaker leading wave ahead of it. Initially the two
weak waves phase on Monday, and SHRA develop overnight and
spread east into Monday. It doesn`t look like a steady rain,
although a short period of steadier rain is possible on Monday.
Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with mostly
cloudy skies. There`s likely to be a break Mon night as the one
system shifts east. But by Tuesday the closed low to our N will
swing through Quebec just to out N, and bring its cold pool
aloft aloft with it, so we are likely to see scatted showers and
some thunder on Tuesday as the the atmosphere destabilizes.
Highs Tuesday will be warmer, especially in the S, where more
sun is likely, with highs mostly in the 70s, but upper 60s in
the N.
The closed low finally shifts NE on Wed, as sfc high starts
nudging in from the W. There may still be a few showers in the
N, still on the periphery of waves rotating around the closed
low. With NW flow, downsloping will allow for highs on the coast
and in the south in the low to mid 70s, and mid to upper 60s in
the mtns. Thu looks dry and partly sunny with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...
VFR conditions will lower to MVFR and IFR conditions across mostly
southern and western terminals for a period of time late tonight
through daybreak. Showers are likely to cause restrictions across
southern and western New Hampshire as well. VFR conditions will
return tomorrow morning and continue through tomorrow night.
Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday. Low clouds and showers will
bring at least MVFR cigs late Sunday night into Mon evening.
Expect VFR Tuesday, but SHRA/TSRA could bring tempo MVFR
restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...
A weak trough will cross the waters late tonight and tomorrow
morning, bringing freshening wind gusts up to 20kts this evening. A
weak ridge of high pressure will transit the waters tomorrow, with
another weak trough approaching from the west tomorrow night.
SCA conditions are not expected.
Long Term...SW winds may approach SCA levels Mon and Monday
night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1028 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain and storms have moved out of the region or
dissipated. A few storms remain in northern Mississippi and these
should continue to dissipate. Another complex of storms is located
farther north upstream and this is progged to also diminish as it
pushes south overnight. Much of the area should be rainfree
overnight. The HRRR indicates some additional development closer
to daybreak in the northeast and have left lower end POPs in this
region to try to account for this potential. Otherwise, a warm and
muggy night is in store for the region. Patchy fog may be possible
as well in some locations that saw a bit of rainfall over the last
few days. /28/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Saturday...The vast majority of the cwa today remains
precip free with the NE areas the location of precip activity so
far this afternoon. Due to the increasing deep layer dry air and
low level capping over the western part of the cwa, current storm
activity should continue to be focused over the NE areas through
7-9pm before dissipating. Remainder of the night looks to be quiet
and precip free, just warm and humid. Lows tonight will be in the
70-75 degree range and continuing the above normal stretch.
For Saturday, forecast focus will be on severe storm potential and
increasing excessive heat. With our wet conditions,
evapotranspiration will be high and we will also see low level
moisture pooling ahead of the next disturbance. The result will be
Highs peaking in the 89 to 93 range with the warmest readings in the
west. Combine that with high dewpts, and the Heat Index will peak in
the 100-105 range. Some locations over our W half that will be near
105, I added a Limited Heat Risk to draw attention. Shifting to the
severe potential, there`s an ongoing MCS over the Midwest and the
remnant MCV and short wave emanating from this will ride S down the
periphery of the amplifying upper ridge and be a trigger for storms
Saturday. Nearly all guidance has trended more supportive of
storms and a potential evolving MCS for our region now. The
underlying environment will see steepening lapse rates as cooler
mid level temps move S along with increasing winds aloft
associated with the disturbance. Low level moisture will increase
as 850mb theta e axis gets better established. Instability will be
quite solid with values between 3500-4500 j/kg. There also looks
to be a cap in place early which will serve to limit convection
initially, but actually allow for maximizing instability before
storms develop or move into the instability axis. All the
ingredients are pointing to conditions that support our typical
June organized severe events. Storms and the associated outflows
will move roughly N to S, with damaging winds the main threat.
Some hail is possible as well. Right now, a Marginal risk in out
for all of the area. However, if the HRRR and other hi-res CAMs
continue to trend and look like the 18z HRRR, then we will need an
upgrade to "Slight" risk or higher as severe storm coverage may
be more expansive. /CME/
Saturday night-next Thursday...
Saturday night-Wednesday: At the start of the period, a complex
of storms is possible across areas in the E-SE at before midnight.
There are some spatial & temporal differences in CAMS on how this
MCS evolves. Kept rain/storm chances through around midnight
Sunday & boosted to more likely chances of storms & left some
slight chances in through daybreak. There will remain some severe
threat as well, so kept mention in the HWO for the overnight
period. The region will remain in this N/NE flow before another
cold/drier front dives down by mid-week. Due to this, active
period of convection looks possible through mid-week, but may dry
out across areas to the N. PWs will remain generally above an
inch & a half to an inch & three quarters. This will keep slight
chances of rain & storms for areas along & S of I-20 through mid
week. Surface high will be expansive across the Great Lakes down
into our area w/ a stalled sfc boundary across the south.
Anomalous thermal warmth in the low-mid 20s at 925mb will support
warming highs. Highs will warm into the lower 90s & heat
stress/humidity will increase into the upper 90s-low 100s. Some
heat indices could get near 105 degrees in the Delta Sunday, but
will hold off mention in the HWO. Will need to evaluate how the
storm complex evolves & any impact on the overall low-level
moisture. Diurnal microburst potential will remain possible
through the early half of the week (i.e. Monday-Wednesday).
Late week: Slightly drier air will move in aloft around
Wednesday-Thursday, which could keep rain & storm chances a
little further to the S during this period. However, there is some
increased confidence of a potential issue in the tropics as we
move into late week. With the region W periphery of the anomalous
596mb ridge axis over the Intermountain West & E Coast trough,
this will keep the ArkLaMiss in the weakness between the two.
Synoptics seem in somewhat agreement, so there remains potential
at least for some tropical moisture to advect to the north by late
week after the period. With some slightly cooler thermal profiles
moving in by late week, heat will be slightly less oppressive, as
highs will be into the upper 80s-low 90s. This will limit heat
stress & any issues in the HWO. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are ongoing across the region. KGTR may experience
lowered ceiling or vis from storms in the area. These should move
through and bring a return to VFR conditions by 01Z. VFR
conditions should continue through most of the night. Additional
storms will occur tomorrow afternoon and this will need to be
addressed in better detail in later TAF packages. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 74 91 73 92 / 4 47 59 41
Meridian 72 90 71 91 / 16 73 57 38
Vicksburg 74 92 74 94 / 3 22 35 43
Hattiesburg 74 91 73 93 / 4 41 57 52
Natchez 72 91 74 91 / 2 11 21 49
Greenville 75 92 75 91 / 5 33 30 24
Greenwood 74 91 73 91 / 8 66 30 31
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1050 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2021
Lingering convection continues to move southward through eastern
Warren county and down into Allen county. Brief heavy rainfall,
wind gusts to 40 MPH and frequent lightning will be the main threats
with this activity.
Elsewhere, convection has ended across the region and skies were
generally mostly cloudy. We expect the clouds to slowly mix out and
sink southward overnight. In the wake of the cloudiness,
combination of low-level moisture and wet ground will likely lead to
some fog development along with low cloudiness once again. Current
thinking is that best fog potential will be in areas that saw
appreciable rainfall this afternoon which includes much of central
Kentucky. Will go with patchy to areas of fog overnight in the
forecast update and continue to monitor trends overnight.
Otherwise, some minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast.
First, we`ll keep some lingering PoPs over southern KY for the next
hour or so and then diminish PoPs significantly. Second, we`ll keep
sky cover up a bit more and then clear it out a little later. Fog
grids look good. Temperatures overnight will bottom out in the
upper 60s to around 70 in most areas.
Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2021
Convection continues to diminish across south-central KY this hour.
Strongest storms are across eastern Grayson county and will move
south through Edmonson and western Hart county over the next hour.
Storms are pulse type severe with damaging winds being the main
threat. Based on earlier reports, it appears that we`re getting
some wet microburst type damage with some of these storms. The
Grayson county storms are along an instability axis where 1200-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE reside along with about 30 kts of effective shear.
Despite loss of heating, these storms are propagating along various
outflows which is producing enough forcing to lift parcels to the
LFC where they continue on up due to ample buoyancy.
I suspect convection will continue for at least the next 60-90
minutes with Edmonson, Hart, NE Warren, and western Barren counties
taking the brunt of it. Wind gusts of 45-50 MPH, torrential rain,
and intense CG lightning will be the main hazards with this activity.
Issued at 818 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2021
Convection continues to wind down across the region in most places.
However, one particularly strong storm was moving southward through
Hart county. The storm is feeding off some 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
with about 30kts of effective shear. The storm has recently taken
on somewhat of a supercellular type shape. However, effective SRH
values are less than 100 m2/s2. Recent velocity data is showing
about 45-50kts of wind with this storm. So a threat of 60 MPH winds
looks like a good bet across the eastern half of Hart county over
the next 30 minutes or so. This activity should weaken with time as
the boundary layer starts to stabilize due the loss of heating.
Elsewhere, band of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will move
southward through Marion, Taylor, Casey, and Russell counties over
the next hour. This activity continues to weaken, but some
localized flooding of poor draining and low-lying areas is possible
for the next hour or so.
Issued at 618 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2021
Strong thunderstorms will continue to move through portions of north-
central and east-central KY this evening. Some of these storms may
be briefly severe over the next hour.
Surface mesoanalysis shows a moderately unstable atmosphere with
MLCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Effective shear remains
quite marginal with values of less than 30 knots. Best effective
shear values reside west of the Natcher Parkway across western KY.
Thunderstorms are developing along outflow boundaries and additional
convection will likely be focused around these.
Over the next hour, best convective development will be along and
just east of I-65 with a southward moving outflow boundary pushing
through the Louisville Metro area. Pulse type storms with the
potential of 50-60 MPH wind gusts will be the primary hazard.
Second area of convection will be focused over portions of Mercer,
Garrard, Boyle, and perhaps northern Lincoln counties of east-
central KY. Marginally severe wind gusts to 60 MPH and possibly pea-
marble sized hail will be the primary hazards with this activity.
Soils are also saturated in some areas which may result in some
localized flooding, especially where storms train. Overall residence
time of these storms is low given their propagation along
aforementioned outflow boundaries. However, a few flash flood
warnings may be required in areas that have seen repeated rainfall
this week.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Expect another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Surface analysis places center of low pressure over central Ohio
with two notable troughs, one extending SW across central KY and
another extending W across central Indiana. Current radar shows
scattered convection firing up along and ahead of both of these
features with much less coverage over southern Indiana south to the
Parkways. Overall environment is moist and unstable with SBCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg and PWAT`s from 1.70 to 1.90 inches. But
with shear values remaining low, the main threat continues to be
heavy localized rainfall and potential for flooding. But it should
be noted that hi-res models advertise less coverage today than
yesterday as RAP soundings do show a subtle 7H warm nose. But with
that said, overall environment continues to be conducive for
convective development.
Clearing overnight once again will lead to stratus and fog
development, especially from the Bluegrass to the Lake Cumberland
area. Fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise with stratus
lingering for a few hours. Saturday morning min temps will range in
the upper 60s to low 70s.
GEFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport shows the atmospheric river
weakening over the OH Valley, but still maintaining a presence over
the region through Saturday night as PWATs drop to around 1.50
inches. This will allow for another afternoon of chance showers and
thunderstorms, though the chance is slight. As the low moves farther
east, ridging aloft builds in bringing drier air that should limit
convection tomorrow afternoon. Best chances will be across southern
Indiana and along the Ohio River. Highs for Saturday will push into
the upper 80s to low 90s. And with dew points in the low 70s, real-
feel temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s. So stay hydrated
and seek shade!
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
A ridge west/trof east upper height pattern will be the rule for the
upcoming week.
On Sunday a broad, weak surface trough will slide through the Ohio
Valley from north to south. Mid-level lapse rates, 700mb winds, and
0-6km bulk shear will be weak along with some slight upper ridging.
Nevertheless, there will be plenty of moisture and instability for
even a subtle boundary to work with, so will keep scattered
showers/storms in the forecast with a diurnal peak in the
afternoon/early evening. Current timing indicates the best chances
will be in southern and eastern sections of central Kentucky.
Another weak boundary is expected to slip through the region Monday
night, but with little fanfare with its passage taking place at a
time of low instability and weakening wind energy aloft. Depending
on timing, a stray shower or storm could develop in southern Indiana
in the late afternoon or early evening, but with sounding progs
showing dry air aloft and some capping, will keep the general
forecast dry for now.
The forecast for the rest of the work week will also be dry at this
time, with better rain chances associated with the main storm track
across Canada (north of a powerful upper ridge that will be roasting
the American Southwest where exceptional drought is already well
established), along the eastern seaboard closer to the axis of the
eastern upper trough, and on the central Gulf Coast in a plume of
moisture coming up from the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will be fairly typical for this time of year, although
on Wednesday areas east of Interstate 65 may not make it out of the
70s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
VCTS near HNB and LEX will be ending soon as peak heating is lost.
Expect to see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, which
could be enough clearing to support some MVFR and isolated IFR fog
conditions before sunrise tomorrow. Guidance suggests the best
chance to have lowest visibilities and ceilings will be over the
Bluegrass region. Another round of late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the region, but will only mention
here in the discussion at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...MJ
Short Term...CG
Long Term...13
Aviation...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
927 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.UPDATE...
927 PM CDT
Have lowered shower/thunderstorm potential across northern IL
overnight, limiting to slight chances after midnight. Latest 00Z
guidance has backed off substantially with convective coverage
across southern WI/northern IL and even into Saturday morning.
Earlier isolated-scattered convection which produced local damaging
downburst winds west of the Chicago area has dissipated with the
loss of diurnal heating/instability. Latest RAP analysis depicts a
weakening mid-level vort shearing through the mid/upper level ridge
axis, and dropping southward across west-central IL. Stronger large
scale forcing exists north of the upper ridge across northern MN and
northern WI, ahead of the strong negative-tilt wave lifting
northeast toward the International border. Our forecast area will be
along the far southern periphery of mid-level height falls
associated with this feature later tonight, with the primary low
level feature being a somewhat diffuse surface cold frontal trough
which will slowly approach from the west toward Saturday morning.
Convection which initiated over western WI around 23Z struggled to
develop this evening beneath the upper ridge, and as largely
dissipated as of 02Z. Earlier CAM guidance had maintained and
expanded this area of convection and spread it into far northern IL
late this evening/overnight, though current trends argue against
that scenario and new 00Z CAM guidance is largely dry for the area
overnight. Not out of the question that something could fester
across southern WI over the next several hours and eventually affect
far northern IL later tonight, though that potential appears
significantly lower than it appeared earlier (and even then it was
rather low confidence). Thus have not removed pops overnight, but
have pushed back in time to after midnight and limited any mention
to slight (20%) overnight. Even Saturday morning could be rather
quiet until the approaching cold front and increasing diurnal
instability allow for better potential midday/afternoon.
Have added a mention of some patchy fog after midnight west of
Chicago where heavier rains occurred this afternoon. Current obs
depict surface dew points in the lower 70s, with air temps just a
little warmer at this time and calm/light winds. Areas from south of
Rockford, through DeKalb and Morris would be most likely to develop
fog overnight.
Digital and text forecast products already updated and available.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
335 PM CDT
Through Saturday night...
Scattered thunderstorms tonight and Saturday were the emphasis of
today`s forecast. A few gusty storms are probable, such as have
been already seen this afternoon.
Pulse convection with a higher coverage than in recent days is
found in the area this mid-afternoon. Since 2:30 p.m. there has
begun a slight waning in coverage of the convective corridor that
was centered roughly along the Fox River Valley/Illinois Highway
47. This convective overturning should prevent any rapid growth in
the next couple hours, though on its fringes there will probably
continue percolating showers and some storms. There have been
occasional gusty downdrafts this afternoon -- as high as 43 mph at
ARR -- and this behavior is possible with any storms on the
periphery of the outflow. Even an isolated severe threat may
materialize such as the warned storm in eastern Ogle
County/western DeKalb County.
Upstream in western/central Wisconsin southward to the Mississippi
River are more numerous convective cells tied to an elongated
mid-level wave and associated speed max, as well as probably one
or two convectively-enhanced vorticity maxima. There also are
some outflow remnants from this mornings Plains/Missouri River
Valley MCS that is inching eastward from eastern Iowa. These sub-
synoptic scale features will be evolving eastward, though
confidence in how aggressively they keep convection going after
dark is low. The air mass over the CWA is somewhat worked over
but that should recover with still several hours of sun, plus
there remains a decent regional MUCAPE reservoir of over 2,000
J/kg. So would expect scattered convection into north central
Illinois this evening, possibly without any real break from the
current afternoon activity. There may be some loosely organized
activity, or at least outflow-driven later this evening into
overnight, with 20-30 kt of deep layer shear and some of the
convection allowing models (CAMs) mode.
The main short wave riding atop the northeastern side of the
upper ridge will glide southeast over Lake Michigan by Saturday
morning, with the surface cold front lagging this some and
predicted to move slowly through the area in the afternoon. With
the forcing not juxtaposed, it presents uncertainty on coverage
and also yields thunderstorm chances throughout the entire day.
Even if there is not much morning activity, there could be a fair
amount of cloud cover that could limit the magnitude of
instability and some of the afternoon redevelopment. It points
toward still chance PoPs, but with enough shear (0-6 km of 25-30
kt) and thermodynamics (mlCAPE of 1,500 J/kg) there could again be
storm behavior similar to today with a widely isolated wind and
hail threat. As the front clears the southern CWA early to mid
evening, the rain chance will end.
Highs on Saturday will be influenced by any convection. The
parameters aloft support low to mid 90s, but with scattered
convective activity anticipated, have gone more around 90. Winds
should turn onshore if they aren`t already by morning near the
lake, keeping downtown Chicago cooler once again.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CDT
Sunday through Friday...
No significant changes made to the extended forecast today.
Previous discussion follows...
Heading into Saturday evening any lingering afternoon convection
that develops along the surface cold front will have moved off to
the southeast of the forecast area. Model guidance does develop
spotty showers/thunderstorms along a surface convergent axis/lake
breeze boundary into the evening hours. Model soundings indicate
there is some residual moisture behind the boundary that would
support at least slight chances along the IL/IN border.
The upper ridge begins to amplify across the Central Plains by
Sunday with the eastern Canadian trough responding by dipping south
into the northeastern CONUS. This will place the Great Lakes region
under northwest flow featuring mostly dry conditions and a trend
toward cooler and less humid weather through midweek.
Sunday and Monday will both be warm with highs in the upper 80s for
inland areas (70s to low 80s near the lake shore). Despite the
heat, dew points will be notably lower which should make for two
pleasant summer days. A shortwave dipping across the upper Great
Lakes will bring precip chances across Wisconsin into Michigan.
For Tuesday, northerly winds will become gusty out of the north in
response to a tightening pressure gradient keeping temperatures
cool near the lake in the 70s and lower 80s inland. This could
also result in hazardous swimming conditions along the southern
Lake Michigan shore.
The low and mid-level moisture still appears too low to warrant any
precip chances during the Sun-Tue period, however with multiple
subtle shortwaves moving along the northwest flow aloft a few
very spotty diurnal showers/thunderstorms are not out of the
question.
Toward the latter half of the work week the upper ridge axis begins
to shift eastward over the region with the surface high shifting to
the southeast. This will bring a return of southerly flow and and
temperatures warming back to near 90.
Petr
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
633 PM...Forecast concerns include...
Chance of thunderstorms tonight and again Saturday afternoon.
Wind directions through the period.
A large outflow boundary has moved east of ord and will move
through mdw shortly, shifting winds westerly. It has slowed its
easterly movement and any gusts with this boundary will be short
lived. The boundary may reach gyy before dissipating. Additional
boundaries are possible across northeast IL this evening from
thunderstorms across southeast WI. This activity is not expected
to reach the Chicago terminals this evening but will need to
monitor for boundary movements.
Focus shifts back to thunderstorms developing across west central
WI. This activity is expected to move southeast this evening and
move into northern IL during the early morning hours. While
confidence is only medium, have included tempo mention for this
possibility and may need to adjust timing as trends emerge.
Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon but may
develop south of the terminals. Opted to maintain previous prob
mention due to uncertainty for where new activity will develop.
Westerly winds 10kt or less are likely to become light and
variable this evening and may remain light and variable for much
of the night. The expected thunderstorms early Saturday morning
may have a north/northwest wind shift with them, with the
potential for some gusts. Winds behind this activity may favor
easterly but confidence is low. Winds will eventually settle on a
north/northeast wind to 10kts Saturday afternoon. cms
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSChicago
www.twitter.com/NWSChicago
www.youtube.com/NWSChicago
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
947 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Most areas dry at the current hour but a few isolated showers and
storms remain. HRRR shows additional isolated activity across our
area over the next few hours but then further decreasing around
midnight and thereafter. Adjusted previous POPs downward based off
latest HRRR runs. With only isolated activity expected over the
next few hours, feel comfortable going ahead and dropping the
Flash Flood Watch. Will officially send out the cancellation
product by 10 PM EDT.
Just as a reminder, with all the rain today, expect some fog
around overnight. Please use caution while traveling overnight as
you main run into some areas of fog. Otherwise, very little
change to the forecast.
SR
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected at all sites over
the next several hours as scattered showers and storms continue
across the area this evening. Then, a mix of MVFR/IFR is expected
as CIGs lower and fog develops late in the night into early
tomorrow morning. CHA and TYS return to VFR tomorrow morning and
early afternoon at TRI.
SR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 738 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)...
Key Messages:
1. Moderate to heavy rainfall today which could lead to isolated
flash flooding. Flash Flood Watch in effect for some areas through
midnight.
2. Warmer on Saturday with lower chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
Discussion:
Upper trough continues to slowly pivot atop the TN Valley and
Southern Appalachians this afternoon favoring synoptic ascent over
the area. At the surface, weak low pressure remains centered
northward atop portions of the Upper OH Valley, yet extending
southward into/through East TN. Given broad ascent and increasing
instability this afternoon, still expecting coverage of
showers/thunderstorms to increase regionwide either by way of new
CI, or advection of convection to the southeast from portion of
central/east KY and Middle TN. Thus, pops will gradually increase
through the afternoon from northwest to southeast through the
Plateau, the Great Valley, and finally the mountains. Rainfall over
the last 48 hours has resulted in expansion of favorable flooding
antecedent conditions, thus opted to expand (by area) the previous
Flash Flood Watch one tier of counties southward, with no changes to
the previous expiration time at midnight tonight. Overall storm
total QPF is in the half inch range, however given pwats around 2"
and only 10-15kt cloud layer mean winds, would expect some higher
localized totals of 1-2 inches which could result in the
aforementioned Flash Flooding.
Tonight the upper trough axis looks to advect eastward, however with
the region still beneath the broader trough. This will favor at
least some lower end chances for convection on Saturday amidst ample
heating in the afternoon, but overall the profiles are significantly
drier thus the heavy rain threat does lower. All in all, will
mention chance/likely pops further east across the mountains closer
to the upper low and trough axis, while featuring slight chances
westward to account for any diurnally favored convection. As noted,
profiles do dry out by Saturday afternoon thus ample insolation and
therefore heating is expected with highs pushing close to 90 in the
Southern Valley, mid 80s northward. Lastly, these drier profiles
suggest improved lapse rates for deep convection, therefore can`t
rule out a few isolated stronger storms with gusty winds and small
hail in additional to frequent cloud to ground lightning.
CDG
LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)...
Key Messages:
1. Frontal passage on Sunday supporting isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong.
2. Temperatures will continue to be warm through midweek to well
above normal. Cooler and drier conditions will be found behind the
late week front.
Discussion:
Not much has changed in the extended period. Upper lvl ridging will
be centered over the central CONUS while troughing slowly moves
across the Carolina coast. An approaching frontal boundary will
support at least slight chances of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours and into the evening. PW values will be somewhat
lower which may lower the flash flood risk a bit, although flash
flooding will still be possible. With MLCAPE of around 2000 J/Kg and
DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/Kg, a conditional severe risk will exist
with convection that does develop. The main risk will be damaging
winds.
Behind the front, drier air moves in and continues through early
next week. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs near to
above normal. By midweek, a mid-level shortwave dives out of the
Great Lakes resulting in amplification in mid-upper level flow. This
results in a sharper frontal passage supporting cooler temperatures
and lower dewpoints.
Diegan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 70 91 71 / 50 20 10 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 87 68 89 69 / 40 30 10 40 20
Oak Ridge, TN 68 88 68 89 67 / 50 20 10 40 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 64 86 65 / 50 40 20 40 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
604 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Looks to be another warm night tonight with lows in the low 70s. Dew
points in the mid to upper 60s should prevent them from dropping any
further. The upper level ridge continues to dominate the West
Central Texas weather pattern keeping us nice and dry. The core of
the ridge is expected to start drifting back west on Saturday into
far West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The 850 mb thermal ridge is
following suite moving back to the west as well. Both of these will
at least start the cooling process but effects of this won`t be felt
too much during the day Saturday with highs still in the upper 90s
to low 100s in places. Both the NAM and the HRRR show some relief in
dew points during the afternoon for mainly the western half of the
area where dew point values could drop into the upper 50s to low
60s. This should help with the heat indices in the places where
temperatures are expected to be the hottest. Heat indices are
largely expected to stay below criteria so did not continue the
Heat Advisory into tomorrow but it will need to be monitored. Low
level flow will continue from the south so the high humidity
relief is not expected to last long.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
The upper high will continue to be our primary weather influence
extending into next week. The high will shift from southern New
Mexico to over the Four Corners area by early next week. For our
area, highs will be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees on
Sunday. May have the trailing portion of a weak cold front sag
south into our far northern counties Sunday evening into Monday
morning, before washing out. Not carrying mentionable PoP at this
time, but if moisture is sufficient, may need to monitor for the
potential of an isolated shower/thunderstorm with the weak
boundary. With east-southeast low-level flow indicated Monday and
Tuesday, should have some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge,
with highs dropping back a little to 92- 97 degrees across the
area.
Late in the week, the upper high is progged to be centered over
Arizona/New Mexico with our area on its eastern periphery. Little
change in our temperatures is expected with daily highs in the 90s.
Will be monitoring for the potential of an embedded disturbance or
two to move around the eastern periphery of the high and over our
area. This would potentially bring a possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but confidence is too low for
including any mentionable PoPs at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Patchy stratus is forecast to develop across the Texas Hill
Country Saturday morning. The stratus is forecast to remain to
the south of the TAF sites, with VFR conditions prevailing at all
sites through the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds early this
evening, will decrease to 10 knots or less by mid to late evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 98 72 96 / 0 0 5 5
San Angelo 72 101 70 100 / 0 0 5 5
Junction 71 99 70 99 / 0 0 5 0
Brownwood 71 97 70 96 / 0 0 5 0
Sweetwater 73 99 73 97 / 5 0 5 5
Ozona 71 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels