Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/10/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Overall terminals across the northern half of New Mexico will expect
VFR conditions the next 24 hours with maybe some minor smoke impacts
to KABQ/KAEG/KGUP tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will increase
mainly from the SW tomorrow with some higher gusts in the afternoon.
Latest guidance from HRRR Smoke bring haze/smoke to KGUP for a few
hours tonight between 03Z and 06Z before moving east. Visibility may
drop to 6SM but progged concentrations seems to be less than this
morning. This smoke then settles into the RGV again affecting KAEG
and KABQ mainly in the 11Z to 15Z timeframe with a mention of 6SM
visibility. We will most likely have another strong inversion
especially for KAEG which will likely trap smoke overnight. Inversion
is progged to break up 15Z to 18Z tomorrow AM so expect winds to
begin to mix in the boundary layer during that time which should
allow for visibility to improve.
The other concern will be gusty SW winds tomorrow. Stuck with higher
end wind guidance from GFS MOS and some high res models. There
should be some 30kt gusts at KFMN/KGUP, possibly KAEG. KSAF, KLVS and
KTCC should all be pretty close to 30kt gusts as well tomorrow
afternoon based on this guidance. There should be a stronger lee
trough/cyclogenesis tomorrow to support a tighter pressure gradient
and higher winds with a strong trough moving over the northern
Rockies.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...432 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, dry, and smoky throughout the work week. Temperatures in the
90s will be present across western and central New Mexico this week,
with 100s across much of the eastern plains. Low-level moisture
should help fuel some afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the
central mountain chain over the weekend, with temperatures remaining
quite toasty across the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
The heat is on as temperatures soar into the 80s in the mountains.
90s in the lowlands and 100 at Roswell this hour. Tonight will be
dry and mild with smoke settling into the southwest and central
valleys again, as far north at Albuquerque. An upper level trough
will be passing northwest of us Thursday, bringing increasing winds
and temperatures. It will be breezy to locally windy in the west and
the northeast. Near record and record highs are likely over some
central and many eastern locations. Thursday night will be dry and
mild with diminishing winds.
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Chaves County Plains for
Thursday.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Friday will be another hot day across New Mexico, as the upper high
stretches from central Mexico northward into New Mexico. As 700 mb
temperatures approach 20 C, near to record breaking temperatures will
once again be possible across portions of southeast, western, and
central New Mexico. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Chaves County
for Friday as well, as temperatures are forecast to exceed 105
degrees. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will stretch into portions
of northeast and eastern New Mexico, where temperatures will be a few
up to 10 degrees cooler than Thursday`s high temperatures. There is
some uncertainty with how far west the front will go, potentially
lowering temperatures a few degrees across central areas. There is
also the possibility for a weak east canyon wind (less than 20 kts)
through the middle Rio Grande Valley Saturday morning.
Excessive heat will continue to spread across central and western
New Mexico through the weekend, where high temperatures across
western portions were adjusted above guidance. Precipitation chances
increase east of the central mountain chain through the weekend, as
the flow shifts more southeast behind the cold front and increases
low-level moisture. Eastern areas should see somewhat cooler
temperatures through early next week, due to increased precipitation
chances and cloud cover.
By Monday, the high will migrate northward over Arizona and New
Mexico and the potential for moisture to get re-circulated under the
high will allow for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. From
here, there are quite a few differences regarding the path the high
will take. The 12z GFS and Canadian show the progression over the
Four Corners region, while the ECMWF places the high further to the
west over CA/NV/AZ.
CHJ/31
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, very dry and unstable conditions will persist through the work
week across much of the area with mostly poor humidity recovery at
night. A Pacific trough will race northeast across the Great Basin
toward the Rockies on Thursday and bring stronger winds to much of
our area, resulting in an increased risk for critical fire weather
conditions. We will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the Northwest
Plateau and Northwest Highlands for Thursday afternoon and early
evening. While the winds are marginal as to reaching criteria, all
the other parameters are sky high, and fuels are bone dry, even 100
hour fuels. Critical conditions will also be reached in eastern NM,
but fuels are not receptive to rapid fire growth and spread, so we
will not issue anything in the east. Winds will be lower on Friday.
A back door cold front will move into the northeast Thursday night
into Friday morning, and spread south and west Friday night, maybe
into the Rio Grande Valley as well. Low level moisture will follow
the front, and help bring back shower and thunderstorm chances in
the east this weekend, perhaps a few storms over the western and
central high terrain Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will cool in the
northeast Friday and much of the east Saturday.
High pressure centered to the south of NM late this week will build
north this weekend and early next week. Temperatures west of the
central mountain chain will increase a bit this weekend. The strong
high pressure center appears to put a cap on much of the convection
this weekend, especially in the west. The high will move east early
next week and allow storms and moisture from CO to south into NM.
So, next week could be active once again.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ101-105.
Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ238.
Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ238.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1031 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Thunderstorm activity has ended with surface low center/tipple
point east-northeast of our CWA, high ML CIN in place, and
subsident/dry air mass in place based on WV imagery. Expect dry
conditions to continue through the night into at midday Thursday
as next wave won`t arrive until later in the day/night. Cold front
is still pushing south over our CWA and low stratus is still
spreading out of Manitoba into our north. This is still shown by
guidances to overspread locations north of I-94 with main impacts
related to aviation. Despite cloud cover CAA should be strong
enough to still support overnight lows across our north around or
less than 60F based on upstream obs.
UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Initial triple point near surface low center is transitioning
over northwest MN with secondary cold front moving out of Canada
into the far northern RRV. Near the warm sector isolated
thunderstorms are lingering, but are showing weakening trends in
our area as expected and this trend should continue with sunset
which would also end any marginal/isolated severe threat (though
that window already might be winding down based on current trends
and building ML CIN according to RAP analysis). Stratus over
southern Canada looks to slide southward with CAA and may linger
into parts of the day Thursday, complicating overnight lows and
possibly daytime highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Line of convection continues to slowly progress east this
afternoon from Lake of the Woods to the SD/MN/ND border along the
sfc trough axis. Ahead of the line ML Cape values are around
1000j/kg with shear being rather weak as effective layer values
are 25kts or less. General thunder storms expected through the
early evening hours with a low chance of severe along and north of
the highway 2 corridor from Fosston eastward over the next few
hours where shear is a bit stronger. Wind gusts are the primary
threat with all of the activity with 40 to 60 mph winds possible,
highest in that aforementioned area of primarily Clearwater,
Beltrami and Lake of the Woods counties.
Activity will move off to the east and a quiet overnight is
expected with 500mb ridging aloft and relatively warm lows in the
60s with some 50s in the DVL basin. A warm, dry and sunny day is
expected Thursday as winds begin to increase from the east with
strong low pressure development in the eastern MT. Highs in the
80s and 90s with heat indices approaching 100F in the southern
valley. Attention Thursday evening into Friday morning will be to
the west as a MCS develops and spreads east across the Dakotas.
With the timing expected to move into the eastern Dakotas after
midnight and into the valley after sunrise with the threat for
severe winds from a mature and eventually weakening QLCS/MCS
Friday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Summary...
Through the long term an upper level ridge builds back westward from
the eastern two thirds of the United States. This begins by the end
of the week and into the weekend after a trough moves past the
region. As the ridge builds, warmer temperatures and dry conditions
move in increasing chances for heightened fire weather concerns
through the weekend and into early next week. Impacts from fire
weather and heat are low for the region through the long term.
Friday afternoon and onward...
A trough moves past the region Friday afternoon, with some lingering
showers possible during the early part of the afternoon. Through the
rest of the day and into the weekend, a ridge builds back towards
the western United States increasing 1000-500mb thickness across the
Northern Plains. Ensembles have shown temperatures on the increase,
while RH values on the decrease. RH values could reach down into the
low to mid 20s through the weekend and into early next week.
Ensemble guidance suggests winds to be on the lower side, with
probabilities of exceeding 20kts sitting near 10-20% for northern
portions of the valley. With low RH values and warmer temperatures,
fire weather concerns are on the lower side but still heightened for
the region through early next week. Under the ridge temperatures
continue to climb into the mid to upper 80s for the weekend and
upper 80s to low 90s middle of next week. There are slight hints in
guidance that the ridge has the potential to break down and move
eastward later next week. This may increase SW flow into the
Northern Plains increasing moisture content.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Isolated thunderstorms should end early in the TAF period with
impacts unlikely at TAF sites based on current radar trends. Winds
shift to the north then northeast later this evening and bring low
stratus out of Canada behind a cold front. MVFR eventually will
overspread northeast ND and northwest MN with the southern extent
currently shown to be just north of KFAR. IFR ceilings are also
possible late tonight and Thursday morning, however they appear
more likely at KDVL for now. Will monitor upstream trends to see
how extensive IFR stratus actually is as this evolves. It`s hard
to say at this time how long the stratus will linger Thursday, as
some guidance holds onto it into the afternoon. Considering the
time of year/high solar angle and increasing gusty east-
southeast winds it seems more likely that improvement to VFR would
occur by midday rather than lingering into the afternoon.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...DJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1018 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
No major changes to the overnight forecast. Some short term models
continue to indicate some iso to scat elevated tstms over SW
portions of forecast area late tonight and into Thu AM. This seems
reasonable given current band of cld cover (per latest G-16 night
RGB) co-located with weak isentropic ascent, best seen on the 310K
sfc. As flow on that sfc veers after midnight, lift may become
sufficient for parcels to reach their LFC. While MUCAPE is strong
(incr to 3000 J/kg or more), deep layer shear is fairly weak at
around 25-30kt. Also, forecast soundings and regional 00Z upper
air soundings indicated substantial dry mid levels and neutral
height tendencies, associated with H5 ridge axis. Therefore, think
the severe threat remains low, though wouldn`t be surprised to see
some pulse type activity with small hail if parcels can make it
past a subtle inversion between near H7 as seen on 00Z DDC
sounding. Main change to forecast was to extend low PoPs past 12Z
Thu AM, though still think dry conditions will return by midday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Overview...
We introduced a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight
across our southwestern zones. We then turn up the heat on
Thursday ahead of the cold front with everyone reaching highs in
the lower to middle 90s and heat index values around 100F. A cold
front will swing through late Thursday night with thunderstorms
developing from north to south along the front. The question is
how far south along the front will the thunderstorms develop. This
is really our best chance for precipitation and that is especially
the case for the northern half of our forecast area. We then cool
down back into the 80s behind the cold front on Friday before
quickly warming back up Saturday into Sunday with highs back into
the lower and middle 90s by Sunday.
Tonight...
We have several models hinting at perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms late tonight until around sunrise on Thursday across
our southwestern zones. The HRRR runs hint at this potential off
and on. In addition, there is a weak signal in the 12Z GFS. There
will be elevated CAPE and any storms that form will be very
elevated. If storms can even develop they could possibly become
strong given good instability, but weak deep layer shear indicates
that any storms should also probably not hang around too long.
Thursday...
The big news will be adding a few more degrees to our temperatures
and dewpoints, which will make for heat index values around 100.
Our heat advisory criteria is actually 105 and I believe we should
stay below that, but still it will be pretty hot with a breezy
southeast wind.
Thursday night into Friday...
This is our big chance for rain in this forecast period.
Thunderstorms are highly likely to develop over the Nebraska
panhandle Thursday evening along a cold front and then track east
with time through the overnight hours. This developing line of
storms should have new storms building further south across
Nebraska with time and we could possibly even have this line
develop all the way south into north central Kansas prior to dawn.
The big question will be how far south this line will be able to
develop and right now I feel pretty good about our rain chances
north of I-80 with decreasing probability as we head south into
north central Kansas. Storms will likely linger through at least
mid morning across our eastern zones. At this time it appears any
Friday afternoon redevelopment will likely be southeast of our
forecast area.
There is a pretty decent severe weather threat across our forecast
area late Thursday night into Friday morning, which typically is
not a climatologically favored time, but which could happen in
this situation. Convection models are in pretty good agreement
that a line of strong storms could evolve into an MCS. Deep layer
shear of 35 to 45 kts along with significant instability will be
sufficient for severe weather. The primary severe weather threat
in this expected storm mode will be strong winds up to around 70
mph. Hail will be less of a threat, but can not rule out a few
quarter sized reports.
Weekend...
We should be dry through at least Sunday afternoon and will warm
back up into the 90s by Sunday with plenty of sunshine both days.
Sunday night through Wednesday...
We get into a northwesterly upper flow pattern with an upper ridge
to the west. This could bring a few weak waves down into our area
resulting in some chance for additional thunderstorms, but at this
time its too far out to give it anything more than a slight chance
for thunderstorms. Temperatures should continue to be a bit above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Chances for significant weather are low.
First 6 hours: VFR. FEW to SCT clouds around 5K ft and lgt SE
wind. Confidence: High.
Rest of the period: VFR. We are monitoring a low end chance for an
iso tstm or two towards EAR in the 08Z to 13Z time frame. Overall,
though, think best chcs remain S/SW of the terminals, so no
mention in TAF attm. Should see FEW to SCT clds rising from around
3K ft in the morning to 5-6K ft for the aftn. Winds will bec a
bit brzy out of the SE by midday and continue through the aftn.
Confidence: Medium.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
933 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this
evening, mainly east of the Illinois River Valley. Scattered
showers will be in place again Thursday afternoon and evening,
especially east of I-57. A heat wave is expected Friday through
the weekend with high temperatures near 90F or into the lower 90s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
At 9 pm only a few isolated showers remained, primarily northwest
of the IL River. These should continue to dissipate as the low
level stabilize, with just an errant shower or two over the next
few hours. Added a mention of fog to the forecast after midnight.
This looks most concentrated near and south of I-70 where more
widespread rains fell this afternoon. The light winds and low
dewpoint depressions will make areas of fog possible, some
possibly dense. Farther northwest, fog should be patchy and more
limited to low lying areas and river valleys. Lows will be similar
to the past few nights, in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Afternoon visible satellite imagery reveals a well defined
circulation near the I-70 corridor in our southeastern CWA. This
low is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central and east central Illinois with the greatest
coverage east of I-55. Latest RAP analysis indicates that around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place across most of central Illinois early
this afternoon and may increase slightly before sunset this
evening. Coverage should taper off once we lose daytime heating.
Very weak shear and steering flow is in place this afternoon
limiting the overall severe threat, but slow moving or stationary
storms could pose a localized heavy rain threat. The slowest storm
motions will be in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor with slow
westward storm motions further north. Despite the overall severe
being low and an overall lack of lightning thus far this
afternoon, there is a non-zero funnel cloud/brief tornado threat.
SPC non-supercell tornado parameter does include a broad swath of
values from 2 to locally 3 across areas where convection is
ongoing, and there have been a couple funnel cloud reports. Any
touch down will likely remain brief and may not be evident on
radar imagery, so have handled the threat with a Special Weather
Statement (SPS) this afternoon.
Expect much of the same to continue into the day Thursday as the
aforementioned low slowly makes its way east. Couldn`t rule out
some patchy fog in the morning. Precip coverage will also shift
east slightly with the best chance for precip east of the I-57
corridor Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected
to be a degree or two warmer Thursday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Mid and upper level ridge axis currently in place over the Great
Plains will shift east to the Mississippi Valley Friday through
the weekend. This will set the stage for even warmer
temperatures and for a heat wave over the region with afternoon
highs near or into the 90s Friday through Sunday. Dry weather is
favored for most of the area Friday afternoon, though a few
lingering showers and storms are possible over east central
Illinois associated with the departing low.
By Saturday, details become a little more fuzzy and will hinge on
the evolution of overnight convection focused to our west Friday
night. Forecast soundings show strong instability developing
across central Illinois Saturday with weak or no capping. Remnant
outflow boundaries or MCV activity could kick off new storms
across the area Saturday afternoon and evening.
After another hot and likely dry day on Sunday, a cold front will
drop across the region Monday. Precipitation with the front is
uncertain with an early day frontal passage missing peak heating
and upper level support focused mainly to our north and east.
Temperatures will remain quite warm Monday but cooler air
eventually filters in behind the front resulting in highs only in
the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Isolated showers to quickly dissipate early this evening with the
loss of diurnal heating. Light winds will occur overnight and
this combined with the humid airmass in place, is expected to form
fog with MVFR visibility after 09z. This could lead to the
formation of an MVFR cloud deck (possibly IFR at DEC/CMI but lower
probability of this occuring) which would persist into mid
morning. After this burns off, VFR sky expected through afternoon.
Isolated afternoon showers would be lower coverage than the past
few days and did not include in TAFs. Winds east to northeast
under 10 kt through the period but will be light/variable at
times, especially overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...25
SYNOPSIS...Deubelbeiss
SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
918 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.UPDATE...Overall forecast is running good. Biggest forecast
concern this evening and overnight is the line of convection to
the north. This is associated with that weak s/w moving south but
the effects from it should begin to wane shortly. That said the
line has continued to surge sse and may hold on long enough to get
into the CWA or could push just to the east of our area. 00z HRRR
initialized horribly and completely lost everything by 01z and
that is obviously not happening but the biggest surge in the
convection has been more towards Hattiesburg and likely remaining
east of McComb. Looking to see what would keep the convection
going. There is real good moisture convergence ahead of the line
and the theta e ridge is stretching across the northeastern half
of the CWA. This should feed into the line. In addition the best
instability is collocated with this area across southwest MS and
SELA east of I-55 and north of I-10. That said there is no real
forcing outside of the outflow boundary. If that races ahead of
the convection, this activity should quickly dissipate. The LL`s
actual show more divergence at the h925 and h85 levels and there
is no real deeper shear to help keep these storms organized.
With that not going to make any changes to the forecast outside of
some minor hourly adjustments. Convection appears it will start to
wane over the next hour or two and even if it does persist will
probably slide just far enough east to stay out of southwest MS
and SELA and would very likely be gone before it reached coastal
MS. /CAB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Beginning with late this afternoon/evening, isolated
showers/storms continue across parts of the area which will
persist to around sunset. Not anticipating any severe weather,
however one or two stronger storms may still be possible at times,
with gusty winds of around 30-40mph and dangerous lightning the
main threats But focusing more on tonight and taking a step back
and analyzing the surrounding weather pattern shows the same very
subtle trough axis anchored across our CWA from NNE to SSW, but
is beginning to show signs of dissipation with mid-level winds
relaxing owing to diminishing vorticity. Otherwise, this weakness
in heights covers a large portion of the mid MS/TN valley region
on the NE periphery of a deep central US ridge and is not moving
much. Going back on model trends from the forecast yesterday,
compared to the current mesoanalysis data shows that this
aforementioned weak trough was likely not enough of a dynamic
trigger to initiate more widespread convection, something where
the CAM`s may have likely overplayed by advertising 50-70% PoP
coverage. Regardless of such a charged atmosphere with SBCAPE in
the 4,000 to even 5,000J/kg range and Tc`s below forecast/observed
highs, we likely needed this extra bit of forcing to overcome
weak low-level lapse rates this far south from the weak trough up
north. Either way, we will continue to dry out tonight. However,
focus will be towards the north at what may likely be a developing
disorganized MCS (already characterized by a deepening cold pool
across northern MS). 12Z HREF members vary on specific solutions
likely due to initialization differences so early on, a few
overdoing it a tad (ARW2 for example) but it will be worthy of
watching if some of these showers/storms propagate southward
enough into our area, or might send a southward surging outflow
boundary into northern parts of our area later tonight (similar to
what the latest 18Z HRRR depicts).
Not much changing going into tomorrow as the same
weakness/troughing remains in place just to our north, with
ongoing potential small MCS or storm clusters propagating
southeast into south-central MS. Comparing short-range model
soundings for today to what is forecast for tomorrow illustrates
very little differences in the thermodynamic profile, other than
slightly drier air aloft leading to slightly lower PW`s while the
upper-level wind flow remains the same. For now, going to ride on
a lower bias in PoP coverage given these trends, with even less of
a dynamic trigger available tomorrow with only a few isolated
showers or storms possible (PoP`s in the 12-17% range).
We finally see some southeastward propagation with the weak
trough down into the southern Atlantic coastline by Friday,
leading to eventual height rises resulting in lowering rain
chances. Kept a warmer bias above the deterministic NBM suggested
highs through Friday, leaning heavily on the upper-quartile in
ensemble forecast values. Afternoon max heat indicies will remain
hot into the upper 90`s to even a few lower 100`s as we close out
the week. KLG
LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
This dry pattern will likely persist into Saturday as anomalously
strong ridging remains anchored across west Texas and northern
Mexico. As always, cant rule out an isolated shower or two
especially near any seabreeze interactions but coverage will be
limited to mainly coastal/nearshore areas in the morning hours
while remaining mostly dry during the day. The main focus Saturday
and Sunday will be the continued heat, with heat indicies
climbing into the low to mid 100`s, especially by Sunday.
Otherwise the upper-level flow becomes a bit tricky on Sunday, as
the aforementioned ridge center drifts north into New Mexico, and
we transition into a northerly to northeasterly flow pattern
aloft. Long-range guidance has hinted somewhat at the possibility
of a shortwave trough axis swinging south across the MS valley
region, which typically leads to some form of MCS wanting to ride
into or near our area. Not going to bite too much on this idea
just yet, but felt confident enough to allow for a steady increase
in PoP`s (better chances/confidence for eastern areas). This could
be a cyclic MCS or thunderstorm cluster that originates across
either the central US or in the midwest, pulsing in strength
peaking during the daytime hours due to maximized diurnal
instability. But again, specifics for something mesoscale in the
long range is tough to resolve accurately, just something to
monitor for now.
Hardly any changes going into mid-week and beyond, as the dreaded
H5 594DM ridge height plants itself over the four-corners region,
with persistent eastern US troughing in place keeping a northerly
flow across the northern Gulf. This would lead to the potential
for more impulses and intervals of enhanced shower/storm chances,
perhaps organized depending on eventual mesoscale trends. As
mentioned before, not going to get specific with PoP`s just yet
and will keep the NBM riding with highs down a few degrees below
climo due to daily rain/storm chances. KLG
AVIATION (18Z TAF DISCUSSION)...
Latest satellite/observation/radar trends shows ongoing spotty
SHRA/TSRA across coastal MS and SE LA TAF sites, with towering Cu
observed nearby this activity. To the west, low-level Cu field
remains persistent bring primarily VFR but periodic MVFR due to
temporary lower CIG`s. Forecast is for more widespread development
early this afternoon, with intervals of SHRA or TSRA possible at
any point. Main threats will be temporary reductions in VIS due to
heavy rain and gusty downdraft winds. Otherwise, this activity
will come to an end around or just after sunset, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the early AM hours on
Thursday. There are indications of the potential for surface fog
from KMCB south and west to near KBTR, but not anticipating
widespread dense fog issues at this time. KLG
MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow is expected as high pressure remains in
control of the Gulf through this week and upcoming weekend. Other
than a few near coastal isolated showers/storms around daybreak
each day, not anticipating any significant hazards with light
winds and waves/seas. Winds will transition more from the
southwest to eventual west late this weekend and into next week,
with some increased shower/storm potential but impacts remain
limited with winds averaging 10-15kts and light to calm
waves/seas persisting. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 90 72 91 / 20 20 0 10
BTR 75 92 75 92 / 10 20 0 10
ASD 74 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 20
MSY 78 92 77 92 / 10 20 0 20
GPT 76 89 76 90 / 10 20 0 10
PQL 74 89 75 89 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
930 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.DISCUSSION...
The Heat Advisory has expired, and we`ll remove this from the
grids and update products to reflect this. We`ll also update
parameters to reflect current conditions. Updates out shortly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Thunderstorms ongoing INVOF FST will continue moving away from the
terminal, thus impacts should be limited to the first hour of the
forecast period this evening. Will continue to monitor convective
trends and amend if needed over the next couple of hours at FST or
possibly MAF, given low confidence. Winds will generally remain
southerly to southeasterly with some variability, and may become
elevated tonight, mainly at MAF/INK/FST. VFR conditions should
prevail, and while there may be a brief opportunity for MVFR
visibility around daybreak impacting MAF and/or HOB, confidence is
too low to mention.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/
DISCUSSION...
This afternoon will be very hot over much of the area as the
subtropical ridge builds over northern Mexico. A heat advisory
is in place through this evening for southern portions of the
region due to the extreme heat. The dryline will progress east
and sharpen late this afternoon from FST to west of ODO to LUV.
12Z MAF sounding shows little in the way of a capping inversion
above the nocturnal inversion. Convective temperature is 100F,
which is the forecast high at MAF. Moisture this morning was very
high with dewpoints in the low 70s, but this moisture is shallow
and will mix out this afternoon due to drier air just above the
surface. The amount of mixing will likely determine the exact
placement of the dryline as well as overall thunderstorm chances.
HRRR guidance has little in the way of storms outside of the
higher terrain as it mixes the dryline east of MAF. This is an
outlier, as other CAMS keep the dryline west of MAF and dewpoints
remaining the mid 50s. With ridging in place, ascent will be
limited to the dryline and higher terrain for thunderstorm
development. MLCAPE will be high with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate shear, this could result in a few severe thunderstorms
with a large hail and severe wind threat. SPC has put eastern
portions of the region under a marginal risk as a result.
Thunderstorms will likely diminish shortly after dark as heating
ends and the nocturnal inversion begins to develop.
The subtropical ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen
over the region, especially Thursday into Friday where 500 hpa
hghts will top out around 594-595 dam. In response, widespread
100+F degree temperatures will be common with 108+F along the
river valleys. We have issued a heat advisory for much of SE
New Mexico and W Texas along and W of the Pecos River tomorrow.
The advisory will likely need to be expanded further into the
Permian Basin on Friday. This heat wave should be taken seriously,
particularly by those who work outside. Make sure to take extra
precautions and take frequent breaks to avoid heat related
illnesses. Any convection that develops Thursday and Friday
afternoon should remain confined to the mountain areas west of
the Pecos River. By Saturday, 500 hpa hghts will lower as the
subtropical ridge begins to retrograde wwd. This will signal the
beginning of a cooling trend, although temperatures are still
likely to reach the triple digits Saturday afternoon. Mid range
models did show a complex of storms moving out of northerly flow
into the Permian Basin Saturday night, but have now backed off on
the latest 12Z runs. As the upper level ridge sets up over AZ/NM,
temperatures will continue to cool Sunday into the beginning of
next week with highs falling back to near normal by Monday.
-Salerno/Chehak
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 73 101 75 101 / 10 10 0 0
Carlsbad 70 107 70 107 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 74 103 74 104 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 74 105 76 107 / 10 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 70 104 70 105 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 64 101 65 101 / 10 10 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 73 102 74 105 / 0 10 0 0
Odessa 74 102 75 105 / 0 10 0 0
Wink 74 108 74 110 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for Central Lea
County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County-Southern Lea County.
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
Winkler.
&&
$$
84/44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1028 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021
.DISCUSSION...
We have had a nice break across the Mid-South this evening with
just a few showers. The cells are slow movers so a few
locations...example western Poinsett County...picked up 1-2
inches of rain. Earlier convection has left a stable airmass
across a good deal of the Mid-South. This may sound like good news
but WSW low level flow lifting very moist (PWATs > 2 inches) and
unstable (MUCAPE around 2000 j/kg) air over this low level stable
airmass will likely produce more showers and thunderstorms across
at least parts of N MS after midnight. Latest HRRR runs place
heaviest rain along and south of a Helena-West Helena,AR to
Calhoun City,MS to Amory,MS line where an additional 1-3 inches
could fall by 7am. The soils are saturated across this area and
additional rainfall could cause flash flooding. A flash flood
watch remains in effect until 7 pm Thursday. Activity that
develops later tonight should push south of the forecast area by
mid morning Thursday.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/
The stubborn upper-level trough that has helped bringing copious
rainfall to the Mid-South continues to spin overhead this
afternoon. This wave will eventually move off to the east late
tomorrow, but we`ll continue to feel its effects in the interim.
The convection that brought heavy rainfall to north MS this
morning has shifted south and shouldn`t be much of an issue for
further flooding concerns over the next several hours. However,
there is a potential for activity to redevelop overnight as a
southwesterly low-level jet intensifies over a moist air mass with
MUCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg.
Precipitable water will remain near 2" through tomorrow afternoon
and the threat for heavy rainfall will persist during this time
frame. These PWATs are in the 97th percentile, indicating highly
anomalous values for early June. Semi-organized convection will
rotate around the parent trough, though coverage and intensity are
not expected to be on par with what we`ve been seeing the past few
days. Nonetheless, much of north MS is saturated and cannot handle
any additional rainfall. With that in mind, the Flash Flood Watch
was extended 24 hours through Thursday afternoon.
As the upper-low shifts east late Friday, a ridge will build over
the Intermountain West with a corresponding trough digging over the
eastern CONUS. This will leave the Mid-South within a northwest
flow aloft regime. Remnant moisture and diurnal instability will
be in place should we see any weak disturbances dive southeast
over the top of the ridge. This pattern will maintain rain
chances, albeit not as high as the past few days, through the
weekend. With northwest flow, we`re always on the lookout for the
"surprise" event.
A weak cold front is progged to move through the Mid-South on
Monday. This looks to bring drier air into the region, although we
really aren`t looking a much of a cool down with temperatures near
climo through the forecast period. We do anticipate a bit of a
respite from the wet weather, but the global models are all
hinting at trouble brewing in the Bay of Campeche by the middle of
next week.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Low stratus is expected to develop across the area tonight with
VFR conditions deteriorating to MVFR and IFR conditions.
Conditions anticipated to gradually improve to MVFR conditions by
late Thursday morning. VCSH/VCTS potential may still persist this
evening for at least a few hours. Otherwise, VCTS possible late
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as daytime instability
returns.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Lee AR-Phillips.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
430 PM MST Wed Jun 9 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue
through Friday as a dry weather system remains northwest of the
region. A gradual warming trend for the latter half of the week will
see temperatures climb back to above normal starting Saturday and
then likely reaching excessive heat levels by Sunday or Monday. Many
lower desert locations should see highs reaching 110 degrees over
the weekend and possibly near record territory for the first half of
next week. Conditions will remain dry with no real chance for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The METSAT and H5 RAP analysis shows weakly cyclonic SW flow aloft
in advance of a large scale trough and associated jet streak to the
NW. To the SE is the strong 596dam H5 ridge of high pressure over N
MX with the ridge axis extending NE through TX and the plains. A
swath of high clouds and elevated WV continued to stream in across
the region from the SW. The lingering influence of the W Coast
trough should allow slightly below to near normal temperatures
across the region today and for the next couple of days with highs
topping out in the low 100s in Phoenix and the lower deserts and the
mid to upper 90s in SE CA and SW AZ.
Increasing high pressure from the SE and the onset of excessive heat
by late this weekend and early next week remains the top weather
hazard/impact in the forecast period. By this weekend the region
will see highs in excess of 110 degrees for the first time and the
hottest temperatures seen so far this year. Highs by Sunday will
push to 110-112 degrees across the region which will produce high
heat risk for Phoenix and S-Central AZ.
For the early half of next week highs will favor the 112-116+ degree
range as record highs of 114-115 degrees for Phoenix will be
challenged. By Tuesday scattered areas of very high heat risk is
favored with widespread very high heat risk expected by Wednesday
with highs as high as 115-118 from Phoenix and the lower deserts to
SE CA. As a result of increasing forecast confidence, due to reduced
model spread and good Clusters agreement, the previous excessive
heat watch for S-Central AZ and Phoenix has been upgraded to an
excessive heat warning from Sunday morning to Friday evening next
week. With a very dangerous heat wave on the near horizon it is
strongly advised to start preparations for and extended event.
In the shorter range forecast the W Coast trough will start to eject
NE through the Intermountain West today through the end of the week.
At the same time the high pressure ridge will make its initial
repositioning towards the NW into the Desert Southwest. This will
allow highs to remain near or slightly below normal through the end
of the week. Highs for Phoenix through Friday will be in the 99-105
range and in SE CA the mid 90s to low 100s. Therefore, the best time
to do outside work that needs to be accomplished in the next 2 weeks
will be now through Friday.
Depending on the eventual position of the ridge center next week,
there could be some minimal mid level moisture that seeps into far
east-central and southeastern Arizona. This may bring some isolated
storms to high terrain areas as early as Tuesday, but it is still
too early to know the extent of the possible moisture return around
the eastern side of the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Once again through Thursday, winds will be the main forecast
challenge under periods of passing thicker high cirrus. Confidence
id good that variable wind directions common earlier in the
afternoon will solidify into a westerly component by early evening,
then hold as such much longer into the overnight than usual. The
switch back to westerly should occur as early as late Thursday
morning with none of the cross runway wind component expected.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will be the primary weather impact through Thursday evening
under periods of thicker high cirrus. In general, wind directions
will veer from a S/SW direction this evening towards a more N/NW
component late tonight and Thursday morning. Periodic gusts in
excess of 20kt will be common at KIPL this evening, with weaker and
less frequent gusts at KBLH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Conditions will remain very dry with no real chance for wetting
rains through the period. A warming trend will also occur during the
period as temperatures warm to above normal starting Friday and then
close to record temperatures by Sunday or Monday. High temperatures
of 113-118 degrees across the lower deserts are likely late in the
period. A modest increase in moisture in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere over eastern Arizona on Tuesday could lead to an increase
in cloudiness and even a remote chance for a sprinkle or even a dry
thunderstorm during the afternoon/early evening hours over the
easternmost districts (the high terrain well east of Phoenix), but
the chances for wetting rains are near-zero at this point.
Otherwise, typical June afternoon breeziness at 15-20 mph can be
expected most days. Min Rh will drop below 10% each day and likely
into a 3-5% range for the lower deserts. Overnight RH recoveries
will be poor, mostly topping out in a 12-25% range.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record Highs
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
------------ ------- ---- ---------
Sunday 6/13 114 (1936) 115 (1940) 118 (1940)
Monday 6/14 115 (1987) 119 (1961) 117 (1940)
Tuesday 6/15 115 (1974) 118 (1917) 115 (1940)
Wednesday 6/16 115 (1974) 119 (1917) 114 (1974)
Thursday 6/17 114 (2015) 115 (1981) 115 (1971)
Friday 6/18 115 (2015) 116 (2015) 117 (2015)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM MST Friday for
AZZ534-537>555-559>562.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ557-
558-563.
Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ530>533-535-536.
Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ556.
CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening
for CAZ560>570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sawtelle/Kuhlman
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Kuhlman