Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/21

Previous forecast discussion...

Another tricky forecast Friday, as our area will be caught between the weakening upper level low moving into western NY/ PA and stronger upper level trough across northern New England and Canadian Maritimes. Guidance continues to hint at more of an easterly flow setting up with a weak high off the Maine coast and weak low in Ohio. This may keep things on the cooler side, with more of an Atlantic/Maritime air mass arriving. The maritime air mass will be more stable and looks to prevent thunderstorm chances, at least for areas east of I-81. That being said, there will still be some scattered showers around, again especially across Northeast PA. Highs will likely be cooler; mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. By this weekend, the remnants of the upper level low/frontal boundary finally get pushed offshore. This will allow a general drying trend, although still cannot rule out some pop up afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs generally in the 70s to near 80. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Most of the rain and thunderstorm activity from earlier has ended. There are some showers in the vicinity of ITH. With some showers present to the west of the terminal, a tempo was added only for the next couple of hours for ITH for light rain showers. Overnight, there will be a break from the rain showers. Between 08z and 12z, some scattered showers begin to pop up, mainly in CNY. Rain showers could be possible in the vicinity of SYR and RME starting around 10z. While there could be some activity before 14z, confidence is highest that all terminals begin to see some rain shower activity beginning 14-17z. These showers could be embedded with some thunderstorms, but confidence remains too low to include thunder in the TAFs. SYR and RME are expected to see MVFR ceilings. The other terminals could also see flight restrictions as well, especially if passing cells produce heavier rainfall. There is the possibility for some valley fog tomorrow morning. Because of this, reduced visibility of 5SM and BR was added to ELM from 08z to 12z. Fog is not expected at any other terminals. Winds will remain fairly light during this forecast period. Outlook... Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight restrictions likely. Thursday through Friday...Chance of SHRA/TSRA. Minor flight restrictions possible. Saturday...Low chance for a shower, but mainly VFR. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: Binghamton, NY Syracuse, NY Avoca, PA 6/7 90 (2008) 94 (1999) 94 (1925) Records date back to 1951 at Binghamton, 1902 at Syracuse, and 1901 at Avoca. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BTL/MJM CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 A fairly weak cyclonic mid level flow regime was in place over the central Plains today around an upper low over centered over the southeast corner of Kansas. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms had developed over central and adjacent portions of southwest Kansas early this afternoon. This appears to be forced by a weak vorticity lobe dropping down around the west side of the upper low combined with some deeper low level moist convergence. Farther west, showers and thunderstorms were developing off the Colorado Front Range and nearby Raton Mesa. Given the weak shear and steering flow across the region, thunderstorms are generally expected to remain sub severe in spite of the unstable airmass over the region. The central Kansas convection should persist through the late afternoon hours before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. The last several CAM runs continue to show the storms in eastern Colorado working their way toward the Kansas border by this evening. A few of these could move into far southwest Kansas during the mid evening hours before diminishing. A few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail could occur with a few of these storms. The weak upper low is expected to move into the central Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon with shortwave ridging spreading into western Kansas. Chances for thunderstorms should be even less than today but wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated storm develop somewhere in western Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Through mid week, upper level ridging will be in place from southwest Texas into the central Plains to the east of a deep upper trough along the Washington/Oregon coast. Very warm air in the low to mid levels will spread out over the central High Plains through Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures to western Kansas. Highs should be into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday and into the mid to upper 90s on Thursday. A strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the trough and into the northern Plains by Thursday night. The medium range models are continuing previous trends in keeping the bulk of any thunderstorm activity associated with this wave to the north of central and southwest Kansas as mid level temperatures farther south could keep a lid on any convection. The upper wave will also effectively flatten the upper ridge over the Plains and allow a weak cold front to push south through western Kansas. Highs on Friday should be several degrees cooler than Thursday. The upper ridge rebuilds northward through the upcoming weekend. The ridge axis will be a little farther west into the Rockies with weak northwesterly flow developing over the central High Plains. This should keep the very warm temperatures at bay along with small chances for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 A south southeast upslope flow is forecast overnight and given the air mass currently in place across southwest Kansas it looks like IFR/LIFR status and areas of fog will be possible between 10z and 16z Tuesday morning. BUFR soundings were in good agreement with the stratus and HRRR also supporting fog development. After 16z ceilings and visibility will improve with VFR conditions likely by 18z Tuesday. By 18z the southeast winds will also be increasing into the 15 to near 20 knot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 89 69 92 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 65 89 67 92 / 10 10 10 0 EHA 63 93 64 96 / 20 0 0 0 LBL 65 89 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 65 89 68 91 / 10 0 10 10 P28 67 89 70 93 / 10 0 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1140 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .AVIATION... The better forcing and thus better chances for showers through daybreak will be to the north and east of FNT and MBS. The loss of daytime heating has led to some improvement in ceiling heights this evening. Thinning and even partial clearing of the mid/high cloud deck will set the stage for some semblance of fog development toward daybreak given the moist boundary layer. The onset of daytime heating will again allow numerous shower development with some scattered thunderstorms. For DTW...While there will again be a chance of TSRA Tuesday afternoon and evening, limited instability suggests the probabilities of general showers will be much higher, like today. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms through the period. * Low in ceilings at or below tonight. Moderate on Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 902 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 UPDATE... Surface dewpoints now in the upper 60s/near 70 represent the degree of moisture advection into Se Mi in the last 24 hours. In fact, the 00Z DTX sounding has a precipitable water value of 1.83 inches. This will of course result in a warm and muggy night. There has certainly been a decrease in coverage and intensity of convection as the onset of nocturnal cooling has commenced. A deeply moist and weekly unstable atmosphere will however persist into the night. While the meager instability may inhibit deep convection, a few weak short wave impulses will touch off at least some scattered showers with ease given the moist profile. An update will be issued to carry a broad scattered pop across the CWA tonight. Regional satellite imagery do indicate some shearing deformation across central Michigan, where light rain is currently more widespread. Several HRRR runs have suggested that this deformation will lift north and expand east into the Saginaw Bay/thumb region tonight, with some uptick in shower coverage/intensity. The HRRR even suggests some outflow driven deep convection late tonight across the thumb region. Confidence of this outcome is certainly not high at the moment, but the potential will at least justify a little higher pop across the thumb region for the time being. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 DISCUSSION... Afternoon radar trends have shown increasing coverage of scattered showers across western and northern lower MI with much more widely scattered activity over SE MI. Activity expected to stay fairly scattered over SE MI through this evening. Mostly cloudy skies have helped to limit the degree of destabilization reducing thunderstorm potential to mainly isolated chances this evening for the majority of the CWA. The exception is looking like the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb areas as these regions were the last to see widespread cloud cover increasing insolation supporting MLCAPE values pushing near 1000J/kg during the late afternoon hours. That said, t-storm activity will still only be scattered at most in those areas. Scattered rain activity will generally taper off tonight will the loss of diurnal heating though an isolated lingering shower is possible along the western I-69 corridor and Saginaw valley. An approaching closed upper low coming out of the southern Plains allows for a reinforcing surge of higher theta-e air to push into lower Michigan by late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Fair amount of agreement across the model space of an elongated mid-level PV anomaly lifting through the CWA tonight and settling over/around the Saginaw Bay by early Tuesday morning. This strip continues to shown as a center for enhanced mesoscale convergence increasing chances for more widespread shower and t-storm activity, so have kept inherited PoPs north of I-69 largely in place Tuesday morning, though dropped likely into chance territory. The center the closed upper low drifts north up the Mississippi Valley to the southern shores of Lake Michigan by Tuesday evening. The closer proximity increases upper level divergence and subsequent support for thunderstorm activity for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Model agreement continues in the PV anomaly near the Saginaw Bay drifting southward in response to the advancing upper low over the course of the day Tuesday supporting scattered thunderstorm development for areas south of I-69. Given the hot humid airmass, afternoon mixed layer CAPE increases into the 1500- 2000J/kg range. The possibility of an isolated strong to near-severe storm will be there Tuesday afternoon and evening as a result. Overall 0-6km bulk shear will be less than 15kts and mid-level lapse rates stay below 6C/km limiting much in the way of any hail potential. Primary threat would be stronger wind gusts from precip loading/collapsing cells. Closed low slowly drifts east Wednesday across northern IN-OH leading to a very similar day as Tuesday. Yet another surge of higher theta-e air pushes into SE MI during the late morning and early afternoon hours, though its looking like this surge will be lesser in magnitude (lesser moisture quality) in comparison to Tuesday. Convective instability will still be enough for scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening along with some activity pushing north into the region from NW Ohio. Strong to near-severe storms are not likely Wednesday given much lower instability as MLCAPE values remain below 1000 J/kg. Upper level circulation largely spins in place in the general vicinity of the MI-IN/OH border Wednesday night into Thursday leading to another persistence forecast for Thursday. Long-range models begin to finally push the upper level circulation southeast late Thursday night and Friday toward the southern Mid-Atlantic. More scattered rain chances come Saturday as a weak cold front front drops through the Great Lakes region. MARINE... Light southwest wind begins to back toward the east on Tuesday with increasing speeds into Thursday as upper Mississippi Valley low pressure gradually works into the southern Great Lakes. Short-term overnight conditions approach calm at times with no significant wind or wave concerns through at least Wednesday. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by warm conditions and increasing humidity (mainly from the Huron basin midpoint, south) are expected to remain below warning criteria each day this week. Brief locally higher wind and wave action are possible with any more notable storms that could develop, particularly within the nearshore zones as activity moves off-shore. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361>363-441>443- 462>464. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......SC DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......KK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow along the northern Plains and Rockies this afternoon on the backside of upper ridging. To the west, a closed low was moving ashore onto southern California while another low spun in northeast Texas to our south. Skies were sunny across the western half of the region, with a field of cumulus clouds east of Highway 25. At 2:00 PM MT, south to southeast winds were observed with gusts around 25 mph. Temperatures ranged in the mid 80s to low 90s. A shortwave is anticipated to approach northeastern Colorado this evening, resulting in a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Colorado border. However, confidence in thunderstorm activity making it into the region from the Front Range is low due to the weak flow aloft with the current pattern. Steep mid level lapse rates of 8 C/km or so, combined with weak shear to 25 knots and moderate instability suggest that if storms are able to enter the region before dissipating, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. DCAPE is projected to be at about 1200 to 1400 J/kg, supporting damaging wind gusts as the main hazard, with a secondary hazard of hail to quarter size. Otherwise, temperatures fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s overnight. The closed low previously over northeast Texas lifts towards the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, allowing upper ridging to build behind it into the Plains. High temperatures will be similar to those seen today, ranging in the upper 80s to low 90s with breezy southeast winds gusting around 30 mph. Dry weather is currently anticipated through the day. Meanwhile, a disturbance travels from the Four Corners to the northern Plains during the day. This wave appears to generate thunderstorm chances Tuesday night, mainly across western portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska (and staying to our north). However, cannot rule out activity clipping counties along/north of the Nebraska border overnight. Again, a few strong wind gusts would be the main threat if these storms stray far enough south to enter the area. Will continue to monitor. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s from west to east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 241 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The extended period begins with a long wave trough over the western CONUS and ridging over the Midwest/northern Plains. Wednesday morning may see some left over shower and storms from the previous night as CAMS indicate a potential decaying cluster of southeast moving storms, confidence is low at this point if storms will be able to sustain themselves through the early morning so left below slight change of pops. Another round of showers and storms are possible during the early afternoon as moist air will be present and disturbance moves off of the Rockies, however a strong capping inversion will be in place so storm formation is low at this time. High`s will again be warm as most areas will see upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Thursday, the ridge firmly sets itself over the plains with a strong area of high pressure moving north out of the Red River Valley. Afternoon temperatures may be the highest the Tri-State area has seen so far this year with widespread mid to upper 90`s. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to upper 60s will be in place across the area which will create heat indices near 100 degrees. The most likely area to see these 100 degree heat indices will be along and east of Highway 83 where the higher dewpoints are forecasted to reside. Winds will be gusty during the afternoon as well due to strong afternoon mixing and a tightening gradient correlated with a developing surface cyclone over the northern Plains as wind gusts may be up to 35mph during the afternoon and into the evening. Overnight a cold front ejects across the area from the surface cyclone over the northern Plains. Forecast soundings indicate a period of potentially stronger wind gusts along and behind the front. Wind gusts of 35-40mph appear possible during the overnight hours, however forecast soundings due show up to 50 knots just around the 750-800mb level. Winds were raised slightly to account for this but held off going higher since it is more difficult to mix down the stronger winds during the night due to a stronger inversion in place. A wide area of thunderstorms are anticipated to be ongoing across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska which looks to sustain itself overnight. It is currently uncertain how far south the area of rain will be able to develop as it moves off to the south east across Nebraska. The area that is relatively most likely to see showers and storms will be our Nebraska counties along with Norton county in Kansas. Friday, the temperatures will be noticeably cooler across the area in wake of the overnight cold front as high temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s are forecasted along with lower humidity levels to help make it more comfortable across the area. An area of high pressure over Texas and Oklahoma should create enough subsidence to keep skies clear along with dry conditions. Guidance indicates the ridge will break down slightly through the weekend as moisture again returns to the area. A few shortwave disturbances move off of the Rockies ahead of a new developing trough over the western CONUS. Currently, this may be the Tri-States next best chance of more widespread precipitation since a weaker ridge will be in place. High temperatures will gradually warm from the mid 80s to the low 90s through the weekend. Into the new work week, long term guidance indicates that a strong ridge will again develop over the plains continuing the recent trend of warm and dry weather as the CPC Day 8-14 outlook indicates above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances for a majority of the High Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 KGLD, VFR conditions are currently expected through about 10z with winds from the south near 10kts. From 11z-14z sub VFR cigs in stratus are expected over the terminal with winds continuing from the south around 10kts. After 15z VFR conditions return. Winds increase by late morning and continue through the rest of the period with south winds gusting to around 25kts. KMCK, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southeast winds around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z. From 17z-02z southeast winds gusting to around 25kts or so are expected. After 03z east-southeast winds around 10kts are expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JBH LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
956 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front stalling out over northwest Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula early this afternoon. With a more humid airmass in place, surface based instability has risen to greater than 2k j/kg over north-central WI ahead of the front, but have not seen any showers on radar so far. It remains possible that a few storms could develop given the instability present. Also watching east- central WI along the lake breezes where the cumulus clouds look agitated. Should any storms develop in these areas or push in from southern Wisconsin, severe weather is not expected due to weak wind fields aloft. Slow moving nature of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, however. Forecast concerns continue to revolve around thunderstorm chances/trends. Tonight...Storms will likely continue into the first couple hours of the evening if any develop this afternoon, but should diminish relatively quickly. Models show the stalled front across northwest WI returning northward so the probability of any regeneration of storms into far north-central WI looks low. Deeper moisture will try to lift north into east-central WI late tonight and will keep a slight chance of a shower in the forecast. As winds diminish with loss of heating, models show fog expanding on Lake Michigan. As a result, dense fog may form on the Lake Michigan shoreline and will add a mention to the HWO. Little change to min temps or humidity levels tonight. Tuesday...Not much change to the forecast for Tuesday. The southern stream system will shift northward slightly towards Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Combined with higher instability values, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be a bit higher on Tuesday. Winds aloft will remain under 20 kts so severe weather is not anticipated. However, the strongest storms could produce gusty winds up to 40 mph, small hail and heavy rainfall given the ample instability present. Temperatures will be similar to today`s readings. Dense fog will likely remain an issue on Lake Michigan into the morning. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summer like weather will continue through the end of the week with very warm temperatures and slightly humid conditions. A weak front over Upper Michigan, and an upper low over Illinois could produce isolated or scattered thunderstorms the Wednesday through Friday, mostly in the afternoon or evening. With an upper ridge over the Great Lakes there is very little wind shear and mild temperatures aloft. This makes strong or severe storms unlikely. Weak winds aloft could make for slow moving showers and thunderstorms, so there could be locally heavy rain. A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday. It should be accompanied by thunderstorms and followed by somewhat cooler and drier air for Sunday through Tuesday as upper flow becomes northwest. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Expect generally quiet conditions tonight, with the exception of patchy MVFR/IFR fog overnight into early Tuesday. The best chance will be near the Lake Michigan shoreline, where marine fog is anticipated. SCT-BKN cumulus will develop during the heating of the day on Tuesday. A weak upper level disturbance may kick off a few showers or thunderstorms over east central WI in the late morning through mid-afternoon, and a frontal boundary may generate scattered showers or storms over north central WI in the late afternoon and early evening. Winds will be light and generally from a southerly direction. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
755 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021 Another warm day across Upper Michigan with prevalent lake breezes moving through the region as seen on GOES and KMQT imagery. Starting to see a few building cu along these boundaries, but so far nothing more than a very isolated 5 min shower in remote Luce County...which may not have even reached the sfc given radar is scanning 9kft out there. It took some time for Marquette proper temps to fall behind the lake breeze, thinking some warm air remained over the lake from the stronger S winds yesterday. Latest RAP analysis shows low-level lapse rates near 8C/km, with model soundings showing just a small cap on top. MLCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg is also ready to be tapped into, but have yet to see any convection fire off. If convection is going to happen, expect development over the next few hours, but don`t expect more than a few showers and rumbles given bulk shear is almost non-existent. Tonight, should see pcpn chances come to an end as upper-level forcing is absent. A convective complex is expected to develop along the ridge axis to the west along Dakotas/MN border before traversing into the Arrowhead region. Models do suggest this system to move over SUperior as well, but losing steam as it outruns instability. There is a chance the outflow makes it to the Keweenaw and perhaps a few showers as well, but confidence is a bit low on this. With a record warm low of 64F, we could break this tonight as the current low is only 72F. For tomorrow, should see a calm day again with diurnal cu in the aftn and lake breezes as well. Kinematics look more or less the same as today, with decent MLCAPE. Could see another isolated shower and thunderstorm across the interior, but nothing severe is expected. High temperatures should be very similar to today as well, with the uncertainty around Marquette proper temps given an expected lake breeze in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 329 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021 Upper ridging with associated anticyclonic flow will continue over Upper Michigan through this week. The ridge shows signs of breaking down toward the weekend with upper low moving through southern Canada on Sunday into Monday. A proceeding short wave will dig through the northern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. This appears to be the best potential for significant precipitation outside of the occasional shower or isolated thunderstorm during the week. With the continued above normal temperatures and lack of precipitation... dry conditions are expected to continue. Relative humidities will only fall into the 45-50% range inland, so less favorable for fires in that respect. Lake Superior mid-lake surface temperatures are still in the low 40s, so any lake breeze will still have significant impact on lakeside temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 755 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021 VFR conditions should prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. A complex of thunderstorms should track across northern MN late tonight and then out over Lake Superior Tue morning. Some of the shra may affect KCMX, but confidence is low in how the shra/tsra may evolve Tue morning. Additional shra/tsra should develop during the day on Tue, but confidence is also low on whether any of the terminals may be affected. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 308 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021 Expect wind speeds less than 20 knots through the forecast period. A thunderstorm complex developing over MN this evening is expected to traverse over western Superior tonight, weakening as it does; however, the thunderstorm outflow could shift winds abruptly from the NW with gusty winds possible. Fog may become an issue early this week if significant rain develops which does not look likely at this time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...KFM AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Models show an upper low over the middle Mississippi valley today moving very slowly northeast and weakening a little through Wednesday night. South winds will continue to bring plenty of low level moisture into our region through mid week. This combination will keep scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms across the PAH forecast area through the near term. As low level moisture increases into Tuesday, brief heavy rainfall will be possible with storms Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Chances of convection will begin decreasing in our western half counties Wednesday night. Clouds and rainfall will keep daytime highs near to little below seasonal normals, and overnight lows well above normal. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The primary long term concern continues to be the potential for showers and thunderstorms and the passage of a cold front over the weekend. The upper low helping spawn the unsettled weather this week will continue to yield shower/thunderstorm chances as it meanders in the vicinity of the Great Lakes with a trough axis extending SW across the FA. This will keep the chances of showers going. Some upper ridging builds NE into the FA Thursday Night and Friday, potentially decreasing rain chances before another short wave drops SE across the FA Friday night and Saturday once again propping up rain chances until a surface cold front moves into the FA Saturday. Some rain chances will linger behind the frontal passage Sunday given diurnal heating and the fronts proximity. While daytime temps will change little behind the front...the lower surface dewpoints will allow a few degrees cooler overnight temps. && .AVIATION... Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 With the 00z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF issuance, anticipate remnant high level ceilings from cirrus cloud blow off from thunderstorms in the western part of the WFO PAH TAF locations this evening, with scattered lower deck persisting above the boundary layer. The center of the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over eastern Texas this afternoon is expected to move across southeast MO and southwest IL during the morning hours on Tuesday. Bands of vorticity around this MCS will likely generate shower activity between 06z and 11z Tuesday, moving from southwest to northeast through the TAF sites. Based loosely on the HRRR guidance, could see some MVFR ceilings at KPAH and KCGI around 12z, plus or minus two hours with nearby thunderstorms. The MVFR ceilings will likely spread toward the KMVN and KEVV TAF sites between 14z-20z Tuesday. Cannot rule out a more intense convection impacting each of the WFO PAH TAF sites between 20z and 23z on Tuesday, as broken lines of convection move east-northeast across the area. This will warrant a categorical mention of rain, with vicinity thunderstorms mentioned especially from KMVN and KPAH eastward. IFR and LIFR visibilities, lasting less than an hour, are expected should thunderstorms move directly over the WFO PAH TAF sites on Tuesday. However, given the scattered nature and propagation of the thunderstorm cells forecast on Tuesday, did not include anything below VFR visibilities at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...RS AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges: 1) Isolated thunderstorms are still possible into this evening, with the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm remaining across the far eastern plains. Confidence is low on this potential though. 2) Well above normal temps continuing on Tuesday, with some locations across the plains forecast to approach 100 degrees. Isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon and while this development continues at this time, anyone storm is struggling to persist. This is likely due to lack of shear, lowering CAPE, and with some rather warm temps aloft (capping) helping to limit growth/intensity. Latest RAP analysis is indicating 700mb temps of 12-16C across southern CO, which is on the higher side. So, for the remainder of the afternoon, think similar trends with showers and storms will continue. This will include storms developing and weakening over and near the higher terrain, Raton Mesa, and along and north of the Palmer Divide where the previously mentioned surface boundary is now located. Will continue to keep a close eye on trends for possible isolated development later this afternoon and evening across the far eastern plains where instability axis remains. If a storm can overcome the capping in place and tap into this energy, it would have the potential to become strong to severe. Confidence continues to be low on this potential at this time though, with drier conditions a more likely scenario. No real big change to the forecast highs on Tuesday, only making some slight adjustments. The air mass looks to only warm on Tuesday, with well above normal temps expected once again. Don`t have 100 degree temps forecast, but do think some locations over the plains will approach the 100 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges: 1) Extended period of dry conditions and above normal temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday... An upper ridge will be located over the southern US, while a low pressure system remains over the Pacific NW. This will produce very dry and hot conditions for southeast CO through the period. Overnight lows Tue night will remain fairly mild, with readings in the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. High temps both Wed and Thu will climb into the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Friday...The ridge to the south flattens a bit for Fri, while a piece of energy splits from the Pacific NW system and tracks east across MT and WY late Thu. This will push a cold front south into CO for Fri, with about 10 degrees of cooling across the eastern plains while remaining dry. Saturday through Monday...The southern high pressure ridge reamplifies across the southern US, though the ridge axis will be situated further west. This will allow some meager llvl moisture to creep back up into the eastern half of the state over the weekend, with scattered convection for the mts and isolated activity for the plains and high valleys Sunday and Monday. High temps each day will remain in the 80s for the high valleys, while the plains will warm into the 80s to around 90F. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 VFR and mainly dry weather still expected across the TAF sites this period. Isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon, and will linger across the area through early to mid evening. With conditions still expected to be on the drier side and with confidence low for any thunder across ALS and COS, kept the VCSH in place and did not add any thunder at this time. VFR conditions with dry weather then expected for the remainder of the period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1031 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ The evening mosaic radar imagery continues to depict a MCV that continues to gradually shift ENE away from SW AR, and is centered between MEZ and HOT as of 03Z. Meanwhile, the convection that moved through the region earlier this afternoon has all shifted E of the region, although some wrap-around SHRA continues to develop along the SW periphery of the MCV over Ern McCurtain County OK and adjacent sections of SW AR. The new 00Z NAM and latest HRRR continue to maintain additional convection development late this evening and especially into the overnight hours into much of Tuesday near and SW of this MCV as it becomes absorbed into the H700-500 troughing extending from the Ozarks S into extreme NE TX, fed by a 30-35kts Srly LLJ which will feed into a remnant sfc trough extending from Srn McCurtain County into the adjacent sections of SW AR. This will be the focal point for additional convection overnight ahead of increasing divergence ahead of the H250 trough over Cntrl OK/TX. PW`s are analyzed to range from 1.7-2.0+ inches across this area through Tuesday, with the latest model runs maintaining additional convection development through Tuesday afternoon which should become enhanced with increasing diurnal heating/instability and developing mesoscale bndrys. Widespread rains of 1-2 inches has been observed today across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, with isolated higher amounts near 6 inches measured in Northern Hempstead County AR, with the additional rainfall pegged to fall over these saturated grounds. Given the somewhat high confidence of convection redevelopment late tonight through Tuesday, have extended the Flash Flood Watch for the aforementioned areas through 00Z Wednesday, while dropping the Watch for the lower half of E TX and NW LA. Model consensus suggests that additional rainfall amounts over the Watch area will range from 2-4 inches, with isolated 6+ inch amounts, although some of this convection may build a bit farther S into portions of N LA Tuesday afternoon before diminishing. Meanwhile, have scaled back pops considerably for this evening, before ramping pops up to chance/likely across the Watch area late tonight with heavy rainfall mention, with slight chance pops closer to the I-20 corridor and south. Did have to lower min temps a few degrees areawide to account for the current rain cooled air in wake of the earlier deep convection, but temps may actually rise slightly late tonight once the low stratus develops late. Did maintain pops for Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall mention, although heating should be sufficient enough for another very warm and muggy afternoon across the Srn half of the area before the convection affects these areas. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 719 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ SHORT TERM... Zone update just sent for the expiration of SVR Watch #242 for portions of Deep E TX and the Srn/Ern sections of NCntrl LA. 15 && AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue this evening over much of the region, as the lingering areas of convection gradually continues to diminish from W to E across the Srn and Ern sections of NCntrl LA. However, a MCV has shifted ENE and is centered near TXK as of 00Z, which will focus additional convection redevelopment later this evening through the overnight hours across SW AR/extreme SE OK. Much of this convection should remain focused near and N of TXK/ELD, but have inserted VCTS mention at TXK after 06Z. Meanwhile, low MVFR cigs should develop by/after 06Z across the region, with IFR cigs possible after 09Z. Slow improvement to cigs are expected by mid-morning, although sct convection should again redevelop after 12Z across E TX which will advance E into N LA by mid/late morning through the afternoon. Have included VCTS mention for the N LA terminals for the afternoon, with the convection gradually diminishing from W to E late in the period. S winds 6-10kts will continue tonight through Tuesday. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 89 75 91 / 20 40 10 20 MLU 69 88 74 89 / 60 60 20 40 DEQ 68 83 71 89 / 70 70 30 20 TXK 69 85 73 89 / 70 70 30 20 ELD 67 85 71 89 / 60 70 40 30 TYR 70 88 75 90 / 20 30 0 10 GGG 70 87 74 90 / 20 40 10 10 LFK 71 90 75 92 / 20 30 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...None. OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ 15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
657 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 .DISCUSSION... Upper low/MCV is spinning over SW AR attm and is lifting east- northeast. Slow moving band of rain showers on the back side of the low will maintain some flood potential this evening. HRRR runs do show some potential for locally heavy rainfall. In addition, an east- west band of convection is expected to get going late tonight on the south side of the upper low/MCV roughly near the Red River and could also bring some locally heavy rain/flood potential. Main update this evening was to adjust PoPs based on the latest trends, and to trim the western/northern portions of the flash flood watch where threat has decreased more displaced from the upper system. Updated products will be out shortly. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Rain and thunder chances have diminished across the area this evening and into the overnight hours. A few spotty showers are still possible across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas but mostly left out of mention due to low confidence. Mostly high MVFR to low VFR cigs will prevail throughout the rest of the evening and overnight. Some IFR/LIFR conditions appear possible, especially for the Arkansas sites late tonight and tomorrow morning with ample moisture remaining in place over the region. Some showers or thunder will also be possible late tonight and tomorrow morning but appear to mainly affect areas south of all TAF sites though MLC and FSM will see the best chances. Again left out of mention in TAFs for now due to lower confidence. Ceilings will begin to lift and scatter out from west to east tomorrow afternoon Bowlan PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ DISCUSSION... At mid afternoon...a mid/upper level low was slowly lifting northeast across Missouri with a trailing upper level trof axis to the southwest across Eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers and a few storms were lifting northward across far Northwest Arkansas with the movement of the low. At the same time...additional showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas as a vort max within the base of the mid/upper level trof axis over Northeast Texas was making its way east northeast. This activity is forecast to continue into this evening as the vort max lifts northeast into Western/Central Arkansas. Additional precip development along the southwest flank of the MCV will be possible overnight tonight across Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. Ample amounts of moisture lifting within the low level mean flow over the top of a surface boundary near the Red River was allowing for continued redevelopment and efficient rain producing cells. Rain rates greater than one inch per hr were associated with the stronger cells. Forecast rainfall amounts of a half inch to near 2 inches with locally higher amounts remain possible through tonight across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas with lesser amounts to the northwest. Thus...will continue with the ongoing flash flood watch. Also with the convection this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma as it crosses the surface boundary...0-1km shear values around 20KTs combined with surface and elevated instability could allow for the possibility of a strong to near severe storm with the potential for some rotation. The greater potential for this should remain east and south of the CWA...where ongoing tornado warnings were in effect across Southwest Arkansas. Severe potentials should weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday as the vort max/MCV exits the region and the upper level trof axis remains over the region. The greater potential for precip should remain across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The upper level trof axis should shift east of the CWA Wednesday night/Thursday with precipitation chances tapering off and exiting Western Arkansas Thursday evening. With the continued ample amounts of moisture...locally heavy rainfall will be possible within this activity through mid week. After tonight though...forecast rainfall amounts look to remain less than one inch Tuesday through Thursday. In the wake of the exiting precip...a building ridge of high pressure from the southwest is forecast into the weekend over the region. In response...warm and humid conditions are forecast Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s and low 90s and heat index values in the 90s to around 100 deg. These conditions could quickly increase heat stress concerns with most not acclimated to these conditions yet. An upper level wave is progged to move into the Northern Plains Friday with a surface frontal boundary diving southeast into the CWA underneath the upper ridge Friday night. Even underneath the ridge...surface dewpoints in the 70s interacting with the southeastward moving boundary could allow for a few showers and storms to be possible Saturday and Sunday across portions of the region. This could also knock temps back down a few degrees over weekend. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-076. AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30