Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/21
Previous forecast discussion...
Another tricky forecast Friday, as our area will be caught
between the weakening upper level low moving into western NY/ PA
and stronger upper level trough across northern New England and
Canadian Maritimes. Guidance continues to hint at more of an
easterly flow setting up with a weak high off the Maine coast
and weak low in Ohio. This may keep things on the cooler side,
with more of an Atlantic/Maritime air mass arriving. The
maritime air mass will be more stable and looks to prevent
thunderstorm chances, at least for areas east of I-81. That
being said, there will still be some scattered showers around,
again especially across Northeast PA. Highs will likely be
cooler; mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
By this weekend, the remnants of the upper level low/frontal
boundary finally get pushed offshore. This will allow a general
drying trend, although still cannot rule out some pop up
afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain seasonable with
highs generally in the 70s to near 80.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Most of the rain and thunderstorm activity from earlier has
ended. There are some showers in the vicinity of ITH. With some
showers present to the west of the terminal, a tempo was added
only for the next couple of hours for ITH for light rain
showers. Overnight, there will be a break from the rain showers.
Between 08z and 12z, some scattered showers begin to pop up,
mainly in CNY. Rain showers could be possible in the vicinity of
SYR and RME starting around 10z. While there could be some
activity before 14z, confidence is highest that all terminals
begin to see some rain shower activity beginning 14-17z. These
showers could be embedded with some thunderstorms, but
confidence remains too low to include thunder in the TAFs. SYR
and RME are expected to see MVFR ceilings. The other terminals
could also see flight restrictions as well, especially if
passing cells produce heavier rainfall.
There is the possibility for some valley fog tomorrow morning.
Because of this, reduced visibility of 5SM and BR was added to
ELM from 08z to 12z. Fog is not expected at any other
terminals. Winds will remain fairly light during this forecast
period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight
restrictions likely.
Thursday through Friday...Chance of SHRA/TSRA. Minor
flight restrictions possible.
Saturday...Low chance for a shower, but mainly VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
Binghamton, NY Syracuse, NY Avoca, PA
6/7 90 (2008) 94 (1999) 94 (1925)
Records date back to 1951 at Binghamton, 1902 at Syracuse, and
1901 at Avoca.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
A fairly weak cyclonic mid level flow regime was in place over the
central Plains today around an upper low over centered over the
southeast corner of Kansas. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
had developed over central and adjacent portions of southwest Kansas
early this afternoon. This appears to be forced by a weak vorticity
lobe dropping down around the west side of the upper low combined
with some deeper low level moist convergence. Farther west, showers
and thunderstorms were developing off the Colorado Front Range
and nearby Raton Mesa.
Given the weak shear and steering flow across the region, thunderstorms
are generally expected to remain sub severe in spite of the unstable
airmass over the region. The central Kansas convection should
persist through the late afternoon hours before diminishing with
the loss of daytime heating. The last several CAM runs continue to
show the storms in eastern Colorado working their way toward the
Kansas border by this evening. A few of these could move into far
southwest Kansas during the mid evening hours before diminishing.
A few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail could occur
with a few of these storms.
The weak upper low is expected to move into the central Mississippi
Valley by Tuesday afternoon with shortwave ridging spreading into
western Kansas. Chances for thunderstorms should be even less than
today but wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated storm develop
somewhere in western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Through mid week, upper level ridging will be in place from
southwest Texas into the central Plains to the east of a deep
upper trough along the Washington/Oregon coast. Very warm air in
the low to mid levels will spread out over the central High Plains
through Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures to western Kansas.
Highs should be into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday and into the
mid to upper 90s on Thursday.
A strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the
trough and into the northern Plains by Thursday night. The medium
range models are continuing previous trends in keeping the bulk of
any thunderstorm activity associated with this wave to the north
of central and southwest Kansas as mid level temperatures farther
south could keep a lid on any convection. The upper wave will also
effectively flatten the upper ridge over the Plains and allow a
weak cold front to push south through western Kansas. Highs on
Friday should be several degrees cooler than Thursday.
The upper ridge rebuilds northward through the upcoming weekend.
The ridge axis will be a little farther west into the Rockies with
weak northwesterly flow developing over the central High Plains.
This should keep the very warm temperatures at bay along with
small chances for thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
A south southeast upslope flow is forecast overnight and given
the air mass currently in place across southwest Kansas it looks
like IFR/LIFR status and areas of fog will be possible between
10z and 16z Tuesday morning. BUFR soundings were in good agreement
with the stratus and HRRR also supporting fog development. After
16z ceilings and visibility will improve with VFR conditions
likely by 18z Tuesday. By 18z the southeast winds will also be
increasing into the 15 to near 20 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 89 69 92 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 65 89 67 92 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 63 93 64 96 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 65 89 67 96 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 65 89 68 91 / 10 0 10 10
P28 67 89 70 93 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1140 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.AVIATION...
The better forcing and thus better chances for showers through
daybreak will be to the north and east of FNT and MBS. The loss of
daytime heating has led to some improvement in ceiling heights this
evening. Thinning and even partial clearing of the mid/high cloud
deck will set the stage for some semblance of fog development toward
daybreak given the moist boundary layer. The onset of daytime
heating will again allow numerous shower development with some
scattered thunderstorms.
For DTW...While there will again be a chance of TSRA Tuesday
afternoon and evening, limited instability suggests the
probabilities of general showers will be much higher, like today.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms through the period.
* Low in ceilings at or below tonight. Moderate on Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 902 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
UPDATE...
Surface dewpoints now in the upper 60s/near 70 represent the degree
of moisture advection into Se Mi in the last 24 hours. In fact, the
00Z DTX sounding has a precipitable water value of 1.83 inches. This
will of course result in a warm and muggy night. There has certainly
been a decrease in coverage and intensity of convection as the onset
of nocturnal cooling has commenced. A deeply moist and weekly
unstable atmosphere will however persist into the night. While the
meager instability may inhibit deep convection, a few weak short wave
impulses will touch off at least some scattered showers with ease
given the moist profile. An update will be issued to carry a broad
scattered pop across the CWA tonight.
Regional satellite imagery do indicate some shearing deformation
across central Michigan, where light rain is currently more
widespread. Several HRRR runs have suggested that this deformation
will lift north and expand east into the Saginaw Bay/thumb region
tonight, with some uptick in shower coverage/intensity. The HRRR
even suggests some outflow driven deep convection late tonight
across the thumb region. Confidence of this outcome is certainly not
high at the moment, but the potential will at least justify a little
higher pop across the thumb region for the time being.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon radar trends have shown increasing coverage of scattered
showers across western and northern lower MI with much more widely
scattered activity over SE MI. Activity expected to stay fairly
scattered over SE MI through this evening. Mostly cloudy skies have
helped to limit the degree of destabilization reducing thunderstorm
potential to mainly isolated chances this evening for the majority of
the CWA. The exception is looking like the Saginaw Valley and
northern Thumb areas as these regions were the last to see widespread
cloud cover increasing insolation supporting MLCAPE values pushing
near 1000J/kg during the late afternoon hours. That said, t-storm
activity will still only be scattered at most in those areas.
Scattered rain activity will generally taper off tonight will the
loss of diurnal heating though an isolated lingering shower is
possible along the western I-69 corridor and Saginaw valley.
An approaching closed upper low coming out of the southern Plains
allows for a reinforcing surge of higher theta-e air to push into
lower Michigan by late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Fair amount
of agreement across the model space of an elongated mid-level PV
anomaly lifting through the CWA tonight and settling over/around the
Saginaw Bay by early Tuesday morning. This strip continues to shown
as a center for enhanced mesoscale convergence increasing chances
for more widespread shower and t-storm activity, so have kept
inherited PoPs north of I-69 largely in place Tuesday morning,
though dropped likely into chance territory. The center the closed
upper low drifts north up the Mississippi Valley to the southern
shores of Lake Michigan by Tuesday evening. The closer proximity
increases upper level divergence and subsequent support for
thunderstorm activity for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Model
agreement continues in the PV anomaly near the Saginaw Bay drifting
southward in response to the advancing upper low over the course of
the day Tuesday supporting scattered thunderstorm development for
areas south of I-69. Given the hot humid airmass, afternoon mixed
layer CAPE increases into the 1500- 2000J/kg range. The possibility
of an isolated strong to near-severe storm will be there Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a result. Overall 0-6km bulk shear will be
less than 15kts and mid-level lapse rates stay below 6C/km limiting
much in the way of any hail potential. Primary threat would be
stronger wind gusts from precip loading/collapsing cells.
Closed low slowly drifts east Wednesday across northern IN-OH
leading to a very similar day as Tuesday. Yet another surge of
higher theta-e air pushes into SE MI during the late morning and
early afternoon hours, though its looking like this surge will be
lesser in magnitude (lesser moisture quality) in comparison to
Tuesday. Convective instability will still be enough for scattered
shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
along with some activity pushing north into the region from NW Ohio.
Strong to near-severe storms are not likely Wednesday given much
lower instability as MLCAPE values remain below 1000 J/kg. Upper
level circulation largely spins in place in the general vicinity of
the MI-IN/OH border Wednesday night into Thursday leading to another
persistence forecast for Thursday. Long-range models begin to
finally push the upper level circulation southeast late Thursday
night and Friday toward the southern Mid-Atlantic. More scattered
rain chances come Saturday as a weak cold front front drops through
the Great Lakes region.
MARINE...
Light southwest wind begins to back toward the east on Tuesday with
increasing speeds into Thursday as upper Mississippi Valley low
pressure gradually works into the southern Great Lakes. Short-term
overnight conditions approach calm at times with no significant wind
or wave concerns through at least Wednesday. Scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms fueled by warm conditions and increasing
humidity (mainly from the Huron basin midpoint, south) are expected
to remain below warning criteria each day this week. Brief locally
higher wind and wave action are possible with any more notable
storms that could develop, particularly within the nearshore zones
as activity moves off-shore.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361>363-441>443-
462>464.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......KK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow
along the northern Plains and Rockies this afternoon on the backside
of upper ridging. To the west, a closed low was moving ashore onto
southern California while another low spun in northeast Texas to our
south. Skies were sunny across the western half of the region, with
a field of cumulus clouds east of Highway 25. At 2:00 PM MT, south
to southeast winds were observed with gusts around 25 mph.
Temperatures ranged in the mid 80s to low 90s.
A shortwave is anticipated to approach northeastern Colorado this
evening, resulting in a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
along and west of the Colorado border. However, confidence in
thunderstorm activity making it into the region from the Front Range
is low due to the weak flow aloft with the current pattern.
Steep mid level lapse rates of 8 C/km or so, combined with weak
shear to 25 knots and moderate instability suggest that if storms
are able to enter the region before dissipating, a few strong to
severe storms will be possible. DCAPE is projected to be at about
1200 to 1400 J/kg, supporting damaging wind gusts as the main
hazard, with a secondary hazard of hail to quarter size. Otherwise,
temperatures fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s overnight.
The closed low previously over northeast Texas lifts towards the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday, allowing upper ridging to build behind it
into the Plains. High temperatures will be similar to those seen
today, ranging in the upper 80s to low 90s with breezy southeast
winds gusting around 30 mph. Dry weather is currently anticipated
through the day.
Meanwhile, a disturbance travels from the Four Corners to the
northern Plains during the day. This wave appears to generate
thunderstorm chances Tuesday night, mainly across western portions
of the Dakotas and Nebraska (and staying to our north). However,
cannot rule out activity clipping counties along/north of the
Nebraska border overnight. Again, a few strong wind gusts would be
the main threat if these storms stray far enough south to enter the
area. Will continue to monitor. Low temperatures are forecast in the
upper 50s to upper 60s from west to east.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
The extended period begins with a long wave trough over the western
CONUS and ridging over the Midwest/northern Plains. Wednesday
morning may see some left over shower and storms from the previous
night as CAMS indicate a potential decaying cluster of southeast
moving storms, confidence is low at this point if storms will be
able to sustain themselves through the early morning so left below
slight change of pops. Another round of showers and storms are
possible during the early afternoon as moist air will be present and
disturbance moves off of the Rockies, however a strong capping
inversion will be in place so storm formation is low at this time.
High`s will again be warm as most areas will see upper 80s to low
90s across the area.
Thursday, the ridge firmly sets itself over the plains with a strong
area of high pressure moving north out of the Red River Valley.
Afternoon temperatures may be the highest the Tri-State area has
seen so far this year with widespread mid to upper 90`s. Dewpoints
in the upper 50s to upper 60s will be in place across the area
which will create heat indices near 100 degrees. The most likely
area to see these 100 degree heat indices will be along and east
of Highway 83 where the higher dewpoints are forecasted to reside.
Winds will be gusty during the afternoon as well due to strong
afternoon mixing and a tightening gradient correlated with a
developing surface cyclone over the northern Plains as wind gusts
may be up to 35mph during the afternoon and into the evening.
Overnight a cold front ejects across the area from the surface
cyclone over the northern Plains. Forecast soundings indicate a
period of potentially stronger wind gusts along and behind the
front. Wind gusts of 35-40mph appear possible during the overnight
hours, however forecast soundings due show up to 50 knots just
around the 750-800mb level. Winds were raised slightly to account
for this but held off going higher since it is more difficult to
mix down the stronger winds during the night due to a stronger
inversion in place. A wide area of thunderstorms are anticipated
to be ongoing across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska which
looks to sustain itself overnight. It is currently uncertain how
far south the area of rain will be able to develop as it moves off
to the south east across Nebraska. The area that is relatively
most likely to see showers and storms will be our Nebraska
counties along with Norton county in Kansas.
Friday, the temperatures will be noticeably cooler across the
area in wake of the overnight cold front as high temperatures in
the upper 70s to upper 80s are forecasted along with lower
humidity levels to help make it more comfortable across the area.
An area of high pressure over Texas and Oklahoma should create
enough subsidence to keep skies clear along with dry conditions.
Guidance indicates the ridge will break down slightly through the
weekend as moisture again returns to the area. A few shortwave
disturbances move off of the Rockies ahead of a new developing
trough over the western CONUS. Currently, this may be the Tri-States
next best chance of more widespread precipitation since a weaker
ridge will be in place. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the mid 80s to the low 90s through the weekend.
Into the new work week, long term guidance indicates that a strong
ridge will again develop over the plains continuing the recent trend
of warm and dry weather as the CPC Day 8-14 outlook indicates above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances for a
majority of the High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
KGLD, VFR conditions are currently expected through about 10z with
winds from the south near 10kts. From 11z-14z sub VFR cigs in
stratus are expected over the terminal with winds continuing from
the south around 10kts. After 15z VFR conditions return. Winds
increase by late morning and continue through the rest of the
period with south winds gusting to around 25kts.
KMCK, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southeast winds
around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z. From
17z-02z southeast winds gusting to around 25kts or so are
expected. After 03z east-southeast winds around 10kts are
expected.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
956 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front stalling out over northwest Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula early this afternoon. With a more humid airmass in
place, surface based instability has risen to greater than 2k j/kg
over north-central WI ahead of the front, but have not seen any
showers on radar so far. It remains possible that a few storms
could develop given the instability present. Also watching east-
central WI along the lake breezes where the cumulus clouds look
agitated. Should any storms develop in these areas or push in from
southern Wisconsin, severe weather is not expected due to weak
wind fields aloft. Slow moving nature of the storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall, however. Forecast concerns continue to
revolve around thunderstorm chances/trends.
Tonight...Storms will likely continue into the first couple hours
of the evening if any develop this afternoon, but should diminish
relatively quickly. Models show the stalled front across
northwest WI returning northward so the probability of any
regeneration of storms into far north-central WI looks low. Deeper
moisture will try to lift north into east-central WI late tonight
and will keep a slight chance of a shower in the forecast. As
winds diminish with loss of heating, models show fog expanding on
Lake Michigan. As a result, dense fog may form on the Lake
Michigan shoreline and will add a mention to the HWO. Little
change to min temps or humidity levels tonight.
Tuesday...Not much change to the forecast for Tuesday. The
southern stream system will shift northward slightly towards
Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Combined with higher instability
values, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be a bit
higher on Tuesday. Winds aloft will remain under 20 kts so severe
weather is not anticipated. However, the strongest storms could
produce gusty winds up to 40 mph, small hail and heavy rainfall
given the ample instability present. Temperatures will be similar
to today`s readings. Dense fog will likely remain an issue on Lake
Michigan into the morning.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Summer like weather will continue through the end of
the week with very warm temperatures and slightly humid
conditions.
A weak front over Upper Michigan, and an upper low over Illinois
could produce isolated or scattered thunderstorms the Wednesday
through Friday, mostly in the afternoon or evening. With an upper
ridge over the Great Lakes there is very little wind shear and
mild temperatures aloft. This makes strong or severe storms
unlikely. Weak winds aloft could make for slow moving showers and
thunderstorms, so there could be locally heavy rain.
A cold front is forecast to move through Saturday. It should be
accompanied by thunderstorms and followed by somewhat cooler and
drier air for Sunday through Tuesday as upper flow becomes northwest.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Expect generally quiet conditions tonight, with the exception of
patchy MVFR/IFR fog overnight into early Tuesday. The best chance
will be near the Lake Michigan shoreline, where marine fog is
anticipated.
SCT-BKN cumulus will develop during the heating of the day on
Tuesday. A weak upper level disturbance may kick off a few showers
or thunderstorms over east central WI in the late morning through
mid-afternoon, and a frontal boundary may generate scattered
showers or storms over north central WI in the late afternoon and
early evening.
Winds will be light and generally from a southerly direction.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
755 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021
Another warm day across Upper Michigan with prevalent lake breezes
moving through the region as seen on GOES and KMQT imagery. Starting
to see a few building cu along these boundaries, but so far nothing
more than a very isolated 5 min shower in remote Luce County...which
may not have even reached the sfc given radar is scanning 9kft out
there. It took some time for Marquette proper temps to fall behind
the lake breeze, thinking some warm air remained over the lake from
the stronger S winds yesterday. Latest RAP analysis shows low-level
lapse rates near 8C/km, with model soundings showing just a small
cap on top. MLCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg is also ready to be tapped
into, but have yet to see any convection fire off. If convection is
going to happen, expect development over the next few hours, but
don`t expect more than a few showers and rumbles given bulk shear is
almost non-existent.
Tonight, should see pcpn chances come to an end as upper-level
forcing is absent. A convective complex is expected to develop along
the ridge axis to the west along Dakotas/MN border before traversing
into the Arrowhead region. Models do suggest this system to move over
SUperior as well, but losing steam as it outruns instability. There
is a chance the outflow makes it to the Keweenaw and perhaps a few
showers as well, but confidence is a bit low on this. With a record
warm low of 64F, we could break this tonight as the current low is
only 72F.
For tomorrow, should see a calm day again with diurnal cu in the
aftn and lake breezes as well. Kinematics look more or less the same
as today, with decent MLCAPE. Could see another isolated shower and
thunderstorm across the interior, but nothing severe is expected.
High temperatures should be very similar to today as well, with the
uncertainty around Marquette proper temps given an expected lake
breeze in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021
Upper ridging with associated anticyclonic flow will continue
over Upper Michigan through this week. The ridge shows signs of
breaking down toward the weekend with upper low moving through
southern Canada on Sunday into Monday. A proceeding short wave
will dig through the northern Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday. This appears to be the best potential for significant
precipitation outside of the occasional shower or isolated
thunderstorm during the week.
With the continued above normal temperatures and lack of
precipitation... dry conditions are expected to continue. Relative
humidities will only fall into the 45-50% range inland, so less
favorable for fires in that respect. Lake Superior mid-lake
surface temperatures are still in the low 40s, so any lake breeze
will still have significant impact on lakeside temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 755 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021
VFR conditions should prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst
period. A complex of thunderstorms should track across northern MN
late tonight and then out over Lake Superior Tue morning. Some of
the shra may affect KCMX, but confidence is low in how the shra/tsra
may evolve Tue morning. Additional shra/tsra should develop during
the day on Tue, but confidence is also low on whether any of the
terminals may be affected.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 308 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021
Expect wind speeds less than 20 knots through the forecast period. A
thunderstorm complex developing over MN this evening is expected to
traverse over western Superior tonight, weakening as it does;
however, the thunderstorm outflow could shift winds abruptly from the
NW with gusty winds possible. Fog may become an issue early this
week if significant rain develops which does not look likely at this
time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...KFM
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Models show an upper low over the middle Mississippi valley today
moving very slowly northeast and weakening a little through
Wednesday night. South winds will continue to bring plenty of low
level moisture into our region through mid week. This combination
will keep scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms
across the PAH forecast area through the near term. As low level
moisture increases into Tuesday, brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with storms Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Chances of
convection will begin decreasing in our western half counties
Wednesday night.
Clouds and rainfall will keep daytime highs near to little below
seasonal normals, and overnight lows well above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
The primary long term concern continues to be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms and the passage of a cold front over the
weekend.
The upper low helping spawn the unsettled weather this week will
continue to yield shower/thunderstorm chances as it meanders in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes with a trough axis extending SW across
the FA. This will keep the chances of showers going. Some upper
ridging builds NE into the FA Thursday Night and Friday, potentially
decreasing rain chances before another short wave drops SE across
the FA Friday night and Saturday once again propping up rain chances
until a surface cold front moves into the FA Saturday. Some rain
chances will linger behind the frontal passage Sunday given diurnal
heating and the fronts proximity.
While daytime temps will change little behind the front...the lower
surface dewpoints will allow a few degrees cooler overnight temps.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
With the 00z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF issuance, anticipate remnant high
level ceilings from cirrus cloud blow off from thunderstorms in
the western part of the WFO PAH TAF locations this evening, with
scattered lower deck persisting above the boundary layer.
The center of the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over eastern
Texas this afternoon is expected to move across southeast MO and
southwest IL during the morning hours on Tuesday. Bands of
vorticity around this MCS will likely generate shower activity
between 06z and 11z Tuesday, moving from southwest to northeast
through the TAF sites. Based loosely on the HRRR guidance, could
see some MVFR ceilings at KPAH and KCGI around 12z, plus or minus
two hours with nearby thunderstorms. The MVFR ceilings will likely
spread toward the KMVN and KEVV TAF sites between 14z-20z Tuesday.
Cannot rule out a more intense convection impacting each of the
WFO PAH TAF sites between 20z and 23z on Tuesday, as broken lines
of convection move east-northeast across the area. This will
warrant a categorical mention of rain, with vicinity thunderstorms
mentioned especially from KMVN and KPAH eastward.
IFR and LIFR visibilities, lasting less than an hour, are
expected should thunderstorms move directly over the WFO PAH TAF
sites on Tuesday. However, given the scattered nature and
propagation of the thunderstorm cells forecast on Tuesday, did not
include anything below VFR visibilities at this time.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
1) Isolated thunderstorms are still possible into this evening, with
the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm remaining
across the far eastern plains. Confidence is low on this potential
though.
2) Well above normal temps continuing on Tuesday, with some
locations across the plains forecast to approach 100 degrees.
Isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon and while
this development continues at this time, anyone storm is struggling
to persist. This is likely due to lack of shear, lowering CAPE, and
with some rather warm temps aloft (capping) helping to limit
growth/intensity. Latest RAP analysis is indicating 700mb temps of
12-16C across southern CO, which is on the higher side. So, for the
remainder of the afternoon, think similar trends with showers and
storms will continue. This will include storms developing and
weakening over and near the higher terrain, Raton Mesa, and along
and north of the Palmer Divide where the previously mentioned
surface boundary is now located.
Will continue to keep a close eye on trends for possible isolated
development later this afternoon and evening across the far eastern
plains where instability axis remains. If a storm can overcome the
capping in place and tap into this energy, it would have the
potential to become strong to severe. Confidence continues to be low
on this potential at this time though, with drier conditions a more
likely scenario. No real big change to the forecast highs on
Tuesday, only making some slight adjustments. The air mass looks to
only warm on Tuesday, with well above normal temps expected once
again. Don`t have 100 degree temps forecast, but do think some
locations over the plains will approach the 100 degree mark.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
1) Extended period of dry conditions and above normal temperatures
Tuesday night through Thursday... An upper ridge will be located
over the southern US, while a low pressure system remains over the
Pacific NW. This will produce very dry and hot conditions for
southeast CO through the period. Overnight lows Tue night will
remain fairly mild, with readings in the 40s for the high valleys,
and 50s to around 60F for the plains. High temps both Wed and Thu
will climb into the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F
for the plains.
Friday...The ridge to the south flattens a bit for Fri, while a
piece of energy splits from the Pacific NW system and tracks east
across MT and WY late Thu. This will push a cold front south into CO
for Fri, with about 10 degrees of cooling across the eastern plains
while remaining dry.
Saturday through Monday...The southern high pressure ridge
reamplifies across the southern US, though the ridge axis will be
situated further west. This will allow some meager llvl moisture to
creep back up into the eastern half of the state over the weekend,
with scattered convection for the mts and isolated activity for the
plains and high valleys Sunday and Monday. High temps each day will
remain in the 80s for the high valleys, while the plains will warm
into the 80s to around 90F. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021
VFR and mainly dry weather still expected across the TAF sites this
period. Isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon,
and will linger across the area through early to mid evening. With
conditions still expected to be on the drier side and with
confidence low for any thunder across ALS and COS, kept the VCSH in
place and did not add any thunder at this time. VFR conditions with
dry weather then expected for the remainder of the period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1031 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
The evening mosaic radar imagery continues to depict a MCV that
continues to gradually shift ENE away from SW AR, and is centered
between MEZ and HOT as of 03Z. Meanwhile, the convection that
moved through the region earlier this afternoon has all shifted E
of the region, although some wrap-around SHRA continues to develop
along the SW periphery of the MCV over Ern McCurtain County OK and
adjacent sections of SW AR. The new 00Z NAM and latest HRRR
continue to maintain additional convection development late this
evening and especially into the overnight hours into much of
Tuesday near and SW of this MCV as it becomes absorbed into the
H700-500 troughing extending from the Ozarks S into extreme NE
TX, fed by a 30-35kts Srly LLJ which will feed into a remnant sfc
trough extending from Srn McCurtain County into the adjacent
sections of SW AR. This will be the focal point for additional
convection overnight ahead of increasing divergence ahead of the
H250 trough over Cntrl OK/TX. PW`s are analyzed to range from
1.7-2.0+ inches across this area through Tuesday, with the latest
model runs maintaining additional convection development through
Tuesday afternoon which should become enhanced with increasing
diurnal heating/instability and developing mesoscale bndrys.
Widespread rains of 1-2 inches has been observed today across
portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, with isolated higher
amounts near 6 inches measured in Northern Hempstead County AR,
with the additional rainfall pegged to fall over these saturated
grounds.
Given the somewhat high confidence of convection redevelopment
late tonight through Tuesday, have extended the Flash Flood Watch
for the aforementioned areas through 00Z Wednesday, while
dropping the Watch for the lower half of E TX and NW LA. Model
consensus suggests that additional rainfall amounts over the
Watch area will range from 2-4 inches, with isolated 6+ inch
amounts, although some of this convection may build a bit farther
S into portions of N LA Tuesday afternoon before diminishing.
Meanwhile, have scaled back pops considerably for this evening,
before ramping pops up to chance/likely across the Watch area late
tonight with heavy rainfall mention, with slight chance pops
closer to the I-20 corridor and south. Did have to lower min temps
a few degrees areawide to account for the current rain cooled air
in wake of the earlier deep convection, but temps may actually
rise slightly late tonight once the low stratus develops late. Did
maintain pops for Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall mention,
although heating should be sufficient enough for another very warm
and muggy afternoon across the Srn half of the area before the
convection affects these areas.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 719 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
SHORT TERM...
Zone update just sent for the expiration of SVR Watch #242 for
portions of Deep E TX and the Srn/Ern sections of NCntrl LA.
15
&&
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue this evening over much of the region,
as the lingering areas of convection gradually continues to
diminish from W to E across the Srn and Ern sections of NCntrl LA.
However, a MCV has shifted ENE and is centered near TXK as of
00Z, which will focus additional convection redevelopment later
this evening through the overnight hours across SW AR/extreme SE
OK. Much of this convection should remain focused near and N of
TXK/ELD, but have inserted VCTS mention at TXK after 06Z.
Meanwhile, low MVFR cigs should develop by/after 06Z across the
region, with IFR cigs possible after 09Z. Slow improvement to cigs
are expected by mid-morning, although sct convection should again
redevelop after 12Z across E TX which will advance E into N LA by
mid/late morning through the afternoon. Have included VCTS mention
for the N LA terminals for the afternoon, with the convection
gradually diminishing from W to E late in the period. S winds
6-10kts will continue tonight through Tuesday. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 89 75 91 / 20 40 10 20
MLU 69 88 74 89 / 60 60 20 40
DEQ 68 83 71 89 / 70 70 30 20
TXK 69 85 73 89 / 70 70 30 20
ELD 67 85 71 89 / 60 70 40 30
TYR 70 88 75 90 / 20 30 0 10
GGG 70 87 74 90 / 20 40 10 10
LFK 71 90 75 92 / 20 30 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...None.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ077.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.
&&
$$
15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
657 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low/MCV is spinning over SW AR attm and is lifting east-
northeast. Slow moving band of rain showers on the back side of
the low will maintain some flood potential this evening. HRRR runs
do show some potential for locally heavy rainfall. In addition,
an east- west band of convection is expected to get going late
tonight on the south side of the upper low/MCV roughly near the
Red River and could also bring some locally heavy rain/flood
potential. Main update this evening was to adjust PoPs based on
the latest trends, and to trim the western/northern portions of
the flash flood watch where threat has decreased more displaced
from the upper system. Updated products will be out shortly.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Rain and thunder chances have diminished across the area this
evening and into the overnight hours. A few spotty showers are
still possible across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas but
mostly left out of mention due to low confidence. Mostly high MVFR
to low VFR cigs will prevail throughout the rest of the evening
and overnight. Some IFR/LIFR conditions appear possible,
especially for the Arkansas sites late tonight and tomorrow
morning with ample moisture remaining in place over the region.
Some showers or thunder will also be possible late tonight and
tomorrow morning but appear to mainly affect areas south of all
TAF sites though MLC and FSM will see the best chances. Again left
out of mention in TAFs for now due to lower confidence. Ceilings
will begin to lift and scatter out from west to east tomorrow
afternoon
Bowlan
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...a mid/upper level low was slowly lifting
northeast across Missouri with a trailing upper level trof axis to
the southwest across Eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers and a few
storms were lifting northward across far Northwest Arkansas with
the movement of the low. At the same time...additional showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across Southeast
Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas as a vort max within the base
of the mid/upper level trof axis over Northeast Texas was making
its way east northeast. This activity is forecast to continue
into this evening as the vort max lifts northeast into
Western/Central Arkansas. Additional precip development along the
southwest flank of the MCV will be possible overnight tonight across
Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
Ample amounts of moisture lifting within the low level mean flow
over the top of a surface boundary near the Red River was allowing
for continued redevelopment and efficient rain producing cells.
Rain rates greater than one inch per hr were associated with the
stronger cells. Forecast rainfall amounts of a half inch to near 2
inches with locally higher amounts remain possible through
tonight across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas with
lesser amounts to the northwest. Thus...will continue with the
ongoing flash flood watch.
Also with the convection this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma
as it crosses the surface boundary...0-1km shear values around
20KTs combined with surface and elevated instability could allow
for the possibility of a strong to near severe storm with the
potential for some rotation. The greater potential for this should
remain east and south of the CWA...where ongoing tornado warnings
were in effect across Southwest Arkansas. Severe potentials
should weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday as the vort
max/MCV exits the region and the upper level trof axis remains
over the region. The greater potential for precip should remain
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The upper level
trof axis should shift east of the CWA Wednesday night/Thursday
with precipitation chances tapering off and exiting Western
Arkansas Thursday evening. With the continued ample amounts of
moisture...locally heavy rainfall will be possible within this
activity through mid week. After tonight though...forecast
rainfall amounts look to remain less than one inch Tuesday through
Thursday.
In the wake of the exiting precip...a building ridge of high
pressure from the southwest is forecast into the weekend over the
region. In response...warm and humid conditions are forecast
Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s and low 90s and heat
index values in the 90s to around 100 deg. These conditions could
quickly increase heat stress concerns with most not acclimated to
these conditions yet.
An upper level wave is progged to move into the Northern Plains
Friday with a surface frontal boundary diving southeast into the
CWA underneath the upper ridge Friday night. Even underneath the
ridge...surface dewpoints in the 70s interacting with the
southeastward moving boundary could allow for a few showers and
storms to be possible Saturday and Sunday across portions of the
region. This could also knock temps back down a few degrees over
weekend.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30