Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/21


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE A few high-based cumulus clouds are producing evaporating light rain/virga in western and central areas of the state, but all thunderstorm activity has pushed in to the eastern plains of New Mexico. Brief downpours, gusty downburst winds, small hail, and of course lightning will be the main aviation weather hazards in the eastern plains through mid evening. A slow clearing trend will then be underway into the early morning Monday, but some smoke from wildfires in New Mexico and Arizona will potentially expand overnight with MVFR visibilities possible, especially in southwestern to central parts of New Mexico. Less thunderstorm activity is expected Monday with only the very far eastern tier of New Mexico near the Texas border retaining sufficient moisture for storms. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...234 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Enjoy today and Monday`s isolated to scattered storms moving southeast off the northern mountains while you can, one or two storms become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Near surface smoke will also linger through parts of west-central NM, potentially reaching into the Rio Grande Valley Monday morning from ABQ to Socorro. Otherwise, the forecast turns much drier and hotter for the upcoming work week. High temperatures soar into the 90s through the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for Tucumcari and Roswell. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the northern mountains and portions of northeast NM this afternoon. These storms will continue to shift toward the south-southeast through the evening. The main concern with these storms, similarly to last night, is gusty and erratic winds. This is especially true as they get closer to the Texas border where DCAPE values should approach 2000 J/kg. A few severe wind gusts are not out of the question late this afternoon and evening. Hail will be a secondary threat, though if hail occurs, it will mostly be small. Storms should diminish and/or move into Texas by midnight. Elsewhere, virga may create some gusty and erratic winds as well. However, the primary concern will be smoke that is expected to move in from fires in AZ this evening. Morning satellite imagery showed substantial smoke within the San Francisco River Valley and it`s possible that may happen again overnight into Monday morning, In fact, HRRR smoke progs suggest that smoke may reach as far as the Rio Grande Valley from ABQ southward. Thus, expect some haze Monday morning. Dry air will continue to filter into the state on Monday. This will limit convection even further, and any storms that do form should favor northeast NM. Gusty and erratic wind gusts will again be the main concern with these storms. This activity should shift into OK/TX by 7-8pm. Quiet night in store for Monday night, though low temperatures will be a bit cooler across western NM thanks to the drier air. Also, depending on how active the fires are in AZ, smoke may return to portions of western NM. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... There are no big changes to the long term forecast with this package. Northern and central NM will be located beneath dry and warm southwest flow aloft, sandwiched between a synoptic scale troughing pattern over the PacNW and a 590-595 H5 high developing over the Chihuahua Desert. Daytime temperatures skyrocket into the 90s for the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for the lower Pecos and Canadian River Valleys at Tucumcari and Roswell. A few bouts of afternoon windy conditions will reach the area Tuesday and Thursday with a couple of systems shooting through the SW flow aloft. Otherwise, there are no major sensible weather impacts forecast outside of the hot and very dry conditions. The upper high gets squished over northern Mexico Friday leading into the weekend with the upper level flow pattern turning more zonal, while a backdoor surface front edges into northeastern NM Friday. Temperatures fall back across the east thanks to this surface front heading into the weekend. Low-level moisture behind the front will also help increase chances for a few afternoon storms developing along and east of the central mountain chain next weekend, but overall PoPs are still isolated to scattered at best. 34/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms across north central and northeast NM will continue to move south-southeastward through the evening. Gusty and erratic winds are the main concern with these storms. On Monday, storms will be focused across northeast NM while the remainder of the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Winds may be breezy as well. In fact, hot, dry and unstable conditions will be the rule Tuesday through Friday. As for the details: High temperatures will be a few to several degrees above normal each afternoon; On average, 6 to 12 hours of single digit humidity values can be expected each day; and haines values of 5 to 6 will be common. Winds will be strongest on Tuesday and Thursday, with breezy to windy conditions likely across the eastern plains. Fortunately, this is the area where recent rainfall and green up has occurred, thus mitigating the critical fire weather threat. Winds should remain below critical thresholds across the west. Moisture may try to eek back into the eastern plains next weekend, but it isn`t looking as promising as it was yesterday. Certainly, hot conditions will continue as an upper high will be centered just to the south of NM. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
712 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... Still following the idea that storms in NM will push an outflow east that will eventually lead to development of overnight storms. Better storm chances are expected as the boundary reaches perhaps around a GUY to AMA line as the west is currently in an area of large scale subsidence and this is not expected to improve until a bit later into the evening as the upper low centered in ERN OK lifts NE away from the area. So CAMs idea of holding off on development along the boundary before developing storms around 3 UTC does make sense. The amount of convection that does form is still bit up for debate, but the SPC RAP seems a little more excited about it of late, so additional updates could be required to increase chcs. We remain in a marginal severe potential with only very modest wind shear being a main limiting factor. For tomorrow, a more robust wave seen best at H3 and H25 will move across the area beginning around 00Z. The big questions are where will tonights boundary be tomorrow when this occurs, what will moisture profiles look like and will the wave be strong enough to break a cap. A slight chc POP has been included in the forecast for Mon night despite NBM keeping POPs less than 10 percent area wide. Seeing higher coverage of storms in the SCT range is certainly a possibility if things come together, and if they do not, very few storms may develop. Again, the area is included in a marginal SVR risk with favorable high CAPE forecast, but wind shear remains very much a limiting factor given extremely weak mid-upper level flow (generally <20 kts). && .AVIATION... TSTMS will be in the area later this evening and into the overnight hours and again very late in the TAF period and beyond into Mon evening. The only site with high enough potential to mention chcs in the TAF is AMA late this evening, and even so, only VCTS is shown for now. It appears a repeat of IFR stratus around sunrise will occur, but it is mainly expected to remain just east of AMA to GUY. This will have to be watched closely. If SFC winds turn more easterly toward morning as depicted by a few models, this would increase the chcs of these clouds moving further west and impacting TAF sites Mon morning. For now, maintaining VFR conditions through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday Night... Upper trough over eastern OK will continue to provide northerly mid flow to the central and eastern Panhandles. Dryline continues to hold in eastern NM, with a weak to modest cap to the east. Convection already occurring over the eastern NM mountains, with storm motion looks out of the north, will likely keep things in NM until 9 to 10 PM tonight. While its possible that we might see some storms develop this evening over the western Panhandles, it seems more favorable that the storms to the west in eastern NM will track east across the southern Panhandles with a shortwave tonight. Storms could be isolated to scattered in nature as they move east and it`s possible that not much of the Panhandles will see an impact. With ML CAPE values ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear in the 30 to 40 kt range, as well as effective helicity around 100-200 m2/s2, severe storms will certainly be possible. Overall time of storms will be from the 9P-5A time period tonight, with Amarillo looking to be right around midnight to 2AM. The best dynamics really favor the southern Panhandle for storms, but still will not rule out storms to the north. The southeast has a slightly increased chance of a tornado threat due to the low level jet kicking in late tonight. Storms would have to be surface based for the tornado threat to hold, unless there`s a boundary that the storms can work with, it looks like storms will remain elevated, which should keep the tornado threat in check. With the upper trough further east and a more westerly flow over the Panhandles on Monday, another round of storms are expected to develop over the eastern NM mountains and take a more westerly track over the Panhandles as another shortwave is expected to help push it along. Multi-cells might merge into a cluster and become more of a linear wind threat in the evening. Right now the western Panhandles are more favored for severe weather, as storm may start to fizzle out as they track towards the eastern Panhandles. Weber LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... Very warm temperatures, well above normal for early June and dry conditions are expected through the majority of the long term forecast period. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms return by the coming weekend. In the wake of ridge roller storms very early Tuesday morning, conditions will dry out and warm up through the end of the work week. An S-N H500 ridge will build into the central Plains before tilting to more SW-NE by Friday. Large scale subsidence in the column and notable daytime heating will take place. With the exception of the CMC keeping the dryline across the western Panhandles, latest 06/12Z model and numerical data has a persistent south to southwest surface winds which will enhance downsloping flow and adiabatic warming at the surface and mix the dryline into the eastern Panhandles, especially as H500 flow becomes more SSW by the coming mid week. At its peak, well defined H850 WAA of average values of 34C to 36C will advect into the Panhandles, especially by Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in temperatures above average topping out in the 90s for Tuesday and 100-105 range for most of the Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday, with triple digit heat possible even for Amarillo. Will have to watch Palo Duro Canyon closely with a high temperature value as high as 106, where headlines may be needed. A weak cold front will move south into the Panhandles on Friday dropping temperatures back into the 90s. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms return for Saturday as a mid level disturbance move east across portions of the High Plains. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will remain above average in the 90s. Meccariello AVIATION...18Z TAFS... VFR conditions expected for the next 12 hours, possibly for the entire TAF period. There is a window for storms, most likely in the 00z-06z time frame. Did cover with VCTS for the best targeted time frame. Exception would be KGUY, with not thunder mention, due to the low confidence in storms for the north central Panhandles. Low clouds expected again after 06z, but still some questions as to just how low the cigs will get at the TAF sites. For now, just holding a BKN/OVC 5kft deck, but there is certainly room for MVFR/IFR cigs to at least make it to KAMA and KGUY, maybe even KDHT, as LIFR conditions managed to make it to all sites this morning. If MVFR/IFR conditions return the cigs should start to improve by 13-15z. Weber && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
250 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday night... Satellite imagery shows weak ridging over our region, with departing trof to our northeast moving into Manitoba, and the next upstream low off the PacNW coast. Our weather will remain fairly quiet over the next 36 hours as the western low continues to drop along the coast. Temps will remain a bit above normal with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Monday. There are couple items to work out. First is a weak shortwave which will emerge from the Pacific low and lift thru western and north central MT tonight. There may be enough mid level moisture and forcing to produce some light showers in Wheatland County this evening (as boundary layer flow turns to the E/SE), but the better potential will be to our west and north. In our far southeast we will see some return moisture and elevated instability as a modest low level jet develops...and an isolated t-storm could impact Carter/Fallon Counties between 05-09z. Latest HRRR runs have been trending in this direction. In fact, if a storm develops, there could be enough shear/instability for small hail. On Monday, as aforementioned wave lifts into Canada and we undergo height rises, we will see another push of northerly surface winds. At the same time, a weak shortwave will lift out of Colorado by the evening. It appears we will see more stable north winds reach far southeast MT before this wave arrives, so t-storm potential seems to be just southeast of our forecast area. Will keep a dry forecast through Monday night, but this will also be something to watch. JKL Tuesday through Sunday... Overall pattern remains the same for the extended, with southwest flow and lower heights to the west, with higher heights to the east. A couple different shortwaves will lift through the region, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The first wave will lift through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The other wave looks to affect the area for Thursday. Otherwise, expect most of the extended to be generally dry. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s, but some locations could see the lower 90s at times. Lows should generally be in the 50s. STP && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies through Monday. A few showers are possible near KHWQ this evening, and isolated storms could develop near KBHK & K97M between 05-09z. If a storm develops in far southeast MT tonight it could produce local MVFR/IFR. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/081 056/084 057/092 059/083 049/079 052/089 057/093 00/U 02/T 21/U 22/T 21/U 00/U 11/U LVM 043/080 050/081 049/087 050/074 041/077 046/085 050/089 00/U 02/T 11/U 35/T 21/U 00/U 11/U HDN 049/083 055/088 055/094 059/088 048/081 050/090 057/095 00/U 02/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 00/U 10/U MLS 053/083 060/093 061/088 064/090 051/078 052/088 059/093 00/U 12/T 31/U 11/U 21/U 10/U 11/U 4BQ 054/085 058/096 061/090 065/093 051/079 053/089 059/092 00/U 12/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U BHK 053/086 058/093 060/086 062/091 050/077 052/087 056/089 20/U 12/T 41/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 11/U SHR 049/083 053/089 055/092 058/087 046/080 049/088 055/091 00/U 02/T 20/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure centered well east of the Carolina Coast will help to channel very warm and more humid air north into the Commonwealth for much of the upcoming work week. This heat and humidity will interact with terrain features, along with a few weak surface fronts and upper level disturbances, to bring several rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Fair and warm conditions are expected overnight across most if not all of the region under anomalous upper level ridge. Latest GEFS and RAP track a weak shortwave northward into Ohio late tonight. Forcing ahead of this feature, combined with a surge of higher pwats, support a slight chance of a shower toward dawn over the Laurel Highlands. Latest HREF and NAMNest suggest light wind and increasing low level moisture could result in some patchy late night valley fog across the southeast half of the forecast area. Min temps tonight should be 4-6 deg F warmer than last night`s and will vary from near 60F over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep southerly flow between Bermuda High and upper low over the Miss Valley will advect much higher PWAT air of 1.5 to 2.0 inches into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Diurnal heating of this air mass should yield scattered PM convection both days. Weak deep-layer shear and tall skinny cape profiles will favor pulse storms capable of producing locally heavy rain, but little risk of severe weather. The wettest members of the HREF support the possibility of localized amounts of 2-3 inches, which is unlikely to cause more than minor flooding given latest FFG numbers. Convection-allowing models indicate initial development Monday will occur along the higher terrain of the Alleghenies during the midday and early afternoon hours, before the chc ramps up acrs the Susq Valley later in the afternoon and evening Monday. Increased cloud cover and convection both Monday and Tuesday should result in max temps anywhere from 2 to 5F lower than today (Sunday). Look for highs to range from around 80F across the higher terrain of the Laurels and NW, to near 90F across the Lower Susq Valley. Dewpoints will be in the 60s and perhaps touch 70F on Monday, making it feel more uncomfortable. The slightly lower temps during the daytime will keep heat index values well below heat advy (100) levels - generally in the 80s and lower 90s. The summer pattern with light flow aloft and sct-numerous aftn SHRA/TSRA will continue on Tues. Some better organized clusters of TSRA with locally heavy rain are expected Tuesday as a frontal boundary at the sfc and disturbance aloft approaches from the west. The humidity will be much more noticeable with the RH not going below 60pct for most places in the aftn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The bulk of medium range guidance supports warm and humid conditions with a good chance of primarily PM convection Wednesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. This front will likely stall out just south of the state late in the week, though latest GFS and Euro show multiple waves of low pressure moving along the front late week and into he weekend which will continue to bring chances for showers each day. A lot can change between now and then with subtle features such as this, so overall confidence is low in the late extended period. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High and mid-level cloudiness will begin to stream in from the southwest tonight, but VFR prevails for practically the entire area, outside of some patchy 3-5SM vsbys in light fog/haze late tonight/early Monday. The week ahead looks increasingly humid, with a daily chance for mainly aftn and evening showers or storms. Outlook... Monday-Thursday...Predominantly VFR, although scattered aftn showers/storms may cause brief restrictions. && .CLIMATE... The maxT record was set at BFD on Sat (84F), and the 88F at AOO tied the record max there. AOO also tied their record max on Sun of 89F. Record Maxes: June 6 7 8 9 IPT 100 96 98 99 MDT 99 96 96 97 AOO 89 92 94 93 JST 98 94 98 98 BFD 86 84 88 88 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis/Wagner AVIATION...Gutierrez CLIMATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION... VFR skies will continue through most of this evening. Beginning 04-05Z, we will see low clouds return to the I-35 corridor with cigs initially MVFR, then lowering into IFR 07-14Z. MVFR cigs begin a little later at DRT, with 09-15Z being favored. As we head into tomorrow morning, we will need to monitor for the possibility of TSRA at AUS as a complex of storms moves out of west central TX. For now, we will not mention in the forecast as confidence is fairly low at this time. Cigs lift and scatter tomorrow afternoon, with VFR returning to I-35 19-20Z and DRT around 17Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... A mid level impulse is generating a few showers over the Hill Country to our Central Texas counties this afternoon. A brief thunderstorm or two are possible. These will move off to east by evening. The upper level low will move from Oklahoma tonight to Missouri Monday night as the Subtropical Ridge begins to build along the Rio Grande. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over eastern New Mexico into the Texas Plains this afternoon into evening. The low level jet will feed into these storms allowing them to organize. A northwesterly flow aloft will take them into Central Texas overnight into Monday morning. There is some uncertainty on the southern extent of the storms. For now, will have POPs across the eastern Hill Country to the Austin area to along US 77 corridor. Convective parameters indicate there is a potential for gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rains. The showers and thunderstorms will move off to the east midday to early afternoon. The HRRR indicates a potential for showers and thunderstorms late Monday night due to another storm complex. However, at this time, expect it to be farther north. With the Subtropical Ridge beginning to build into our area, temperatures will become more summer like. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Mid-level ridging pattern builds across South-Central Texas from Mexico to the southwest and will remain settled across the region through the middle to latter half of the week. This results in a period of much drier weather (in terms of rainfall rather than humidity) across the region. May need to keep an eye out for any residual rain chances or moisture Tuesday morning but that all depends on how the short term plays out with any convective complexes that could possibly approach and/or enter the northern portions of the CWA. For now, will leave any PoPs out of the long term forecast until Sunday. Overall, expect for mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoons under a moderate to at times breezy southeasterly flow. Winds trend lighter into each night with increasing low clouds during the overnight. Main weather story for the long term period is the return of the temperatures to near or even slightly above the climatological average. In addition, the humidity will stick around with the surface dew points generally ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. The peak heat index value in the afternoons approach into the lower to middle 100s for many, including portions of the Austin and San Antonio metros. Despite these conditions being rather common for this time of year, people may not be fully acclimated to these conditions yet this year given the last few weeks of below average temperatures and wet weather. For those people spending time outdoors should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of water and apply sunscreen regularly. The highest heat index values across the region look to focus during midweek from Tuesday through Thursday. A slight chance for PoPs will reenter the forecast across the far eastern counties into the second half of the weekend as the mid- range model guidance shows the possibly of a shortwave skirting around the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 89 75 91 75 / 10 20 10 - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 89 75 91 76 / 10 20 10 - 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 92 76 93 76 / 10 10 - - 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 88 73 90 74 / 20 40 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 101 77 / 10 - 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 75 90 75 / 20 50 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 75 / - 10 - - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 91 75 92 75 / 10 20 - - 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 91 78 92 78 / - 30 - - 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 - - 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 94 77 94 76 / - 10 - - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Platt Long-Term...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Monday Night/ No major changes to the previous forecast for the remainder of tonight. Visible satellite imagery and radar shows most of North Texas quiet at this hour with only scattered cumulus, but activity is expected to increase overnight with widespread showers and thunderstorms by morning. Latest objective analysis from the RAP shows an axis of strong instability extending across the Big Country into the eastern Panhandle this evening. This corresponds to an area of high surface theta-e and is where low level moisture convergence is beginning to increase. As low level flow strengthens tonight and warm advection becomes focused to our northwest, we should see a rapid increase in showers and thunderstorms. This activity should become semi-organized and march toward North Texas. While there could be some isolated severe wind gusts, the main concern will be for additional locally heavy rainfall, especially into Monday morning along the I-20 corridor. With grounds nearly saturated, additional rainfall should result in rapid runoff and potential for flash flooding. This activity should move east of the area during the day Monday with the potential for additional thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the remainder of tonight into Monday, we`ve raised PoPs slightly with no other significant changes needed at this time. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ /Monday Night Onward/ After what will likely turn out to be a wet Monday, we`ll have to continue to monitor yet again the threat of another complex developing west of our area and moving into portions of North and Central Texas Monday night. Given the threat for heavy rain atop saturated soils, there is a renewed flash flooding threat through the night. If this is the case, there is a possibility the Flash Flood Watch for tonight may be extended through tomorrow night to account for the continued threat. A pattern shift will begin taking shape as we move toward the middle of the week as an expanding ridge across Northern Mexico and West Texas begins to nose into our region. This will effectively shut off precipitation chances Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures will respond appropriately, especially west of US-281, where mid to upper 90s are looking more likely. With strong evapotranspiration leading to elevated humidity levels and hot temperatures in place, heat index values are likely to exceed 100 degrees in the aformentioned area. For the rest of North and Central Texas, heat index values Tuesday onward will range between the mid to upper 90s. If the area of high pressure responsible for the hot temperatures shrinks next weekend, it`s possible a shortwave and attendant cold front make their way through the area. Along the front, a few showers and storms may develop east of I-35, where the best humidity will be located. Cooler temperatures will then be possible in the wake of next weekend`s forecast. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR prevails across the region at this hour and the trend should continue into the overnight hours. We`ll be watching a cluster of showers and thunderstorms approach from the northwest late tonight into Monday. For now, we`ll have 10Z as the start time for VCTS and prevail TSRA at 11Z. Scattered thunderstorms should persist for much of the morning before moving off to the east. VFR should prevail behind the precipitation tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 84 73 89 75 / 70 100 50 20 5 Waco 71 85 74 89 74 / 20 90 20 10 5 Paris 69 80 70 84 72 / 40 90 60 40 10 Denton 67 82 70 86 72 / 90 100 50 10 5 McKinney 70 82 71 87 73 / 60 100 50 20 5 Dallas 73 84 74 89 76 / 60 90 50 20 5 Terrell 70 82 72 87 74 / 30 90 40 20 5 Corsicana 72 85 75 89 75 / 20 90 20 20 5 Temple 70 87 73 90 74 / 10 60 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 69 84 71 89 72 / 90 90 50 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CDT Monday through Monday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131-133>135-145-146-148. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep layer southwest flow in place across the western Great Lakes, ahead of a cold front that is entering western Minnesota. Moisture appears to be increasing in the low levels as evident by convective cloud formation surging northward across Wisconsin. Despite moistening of the airmass, the airmass remains unsupportive of thunderstorm development. Looking to the west, the front remains largely inactive except for far northwest Minnesota closer to stronger upper level support. As this front slides east and moisture surges northward, thunderstorm chances remain the main forecast concern in the short term. Tonight...The cold front will lose definition as it moves into northwest Wisconsin after midnight. Forecast soundings continue to show an atmosphere that is capped to convection (cap centered around 700mb). In addition, upper level forcing via shortwave energy peels off to the north and don`t think weak convergence along the front will be enough to break the cap. As a result, will leave a dry forecast in tact. Higher moisture air will continue to surge in from the south, and this may make min temps a degree or two warmer than last night. Monday... Southern stream weak shortwave energy will be impacting areas from the central Mississippi Valley to the southern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, will still have the remnants of the cold front stretched out over northern Wisconsin. As temperatures approach the convective temps by around midday, may see a few showers and storms develop with the heat of the day. Deep layer shear is less than 20 kts so the threat of severe weather remains low. Highs will range from the mid 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Upper ridging over most of the nation east of the Rockies will make for warm temperatures and mostly dry weather through the end of the work week. There could be scattered showers along lake breezes or weak fronts in the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will average about 10 degrees above normal. Much of the area has had below normal rainfall so far this year, and the corn planted to our south has not grown too much yet, so dewpoints should not get too high this week. It will definitely feel like summer, however. The NWP models forecast jet energy approaching from the eastern Pacific to flatten the ridge at the end of the week, with slightly cooler temperatures for next Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Patchy mid/high clouds will persist through the night, with diurnal cumulus reforming during the late morning and afternoon Monday. The coverage of the convective cloudiness will be greater than on Sunday, as a more moist air mass will reside over the region. A weak cold front will approach the northwest part of the forecast area overnight, but is not expected to be strong enough to generate any shower activity. However, this boundary will linger across northern WI on Monday, and could help to trigger a few showers or storms later Monday afternoon and early evening. These could impact the RHI TAF site, so will add VCSH after 20z. A lake breeze boundary could also generate a few showers or storms near the lakeshore counties in the late afternoon and early evening, so will likewise include VCSH at the MTW TAF site. Low-level wind shear will impact northern WI overnight, so will continue the mention in the RHI TAF through 10z/Monday. Lighter surface winds are anticipated during the day on Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A warm season pattern is expected this week with times of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoons. Slightly above normal temperatures are also expected this week with highs in the 80s and increasing humidity. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A 700 mb shortwave continued moving north this afternoon and that in conjunction with a theta-e advection wing and diurnal forcing have set off some nuisance showers this afternoon. These are expected to die off this evening. Models also bring broken to overcast stratus north into the area on the heals of that vorticity wing. Stratus was observed in the Tennessee Valley moving north behind that wing this morning. This extra cloudiness should put a floor on how low overnight low temps can get tonight holding them at either side of 70 degrees. Early Monday morning, models bring another vort max north out in front of the eastward drifting upper low. This is on the nose of a low level jet and is colocated with some surface convergence and a weak theta-e surge so will continue with the previous forecaster`s mention of PoPs to start Monday morning. Clouds will continue to hang tough on the northward advection of moisture and this will provide a cap on high temps keeping them in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 The energy associated with a slow lumbering upper low will be the forcing for a good portion of this upcoming work week until we can get another trough in behind it to kick it out of the area. The next trough is forecast to do just that around the end of the work week or by next Saturday. As a result of the lingering meandering forcing, we`ll have clouds around to the tune of partly to mostly cloudy skies many of the days this week, but can`t rule out a peak of sunshine here and there. It certainly won`t rain all the time and will be dependent on any boundaries and sunshine that allow for instability. There won`t be much flow to be able to move cells around so if any thunderstorms do move in or are able to form, they`ll have 1.5+ in PWATs to work with and could create locally heavy rain as long as they have some instability to work with. Tried to blend to previous forecaster`s PoPs as well as create some sort of collaboration with neighbors, but again the best chance for any shower activity will be during the peak heating time periods of the afternoons. Highs over this period will remain in the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 626 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Brief shower in vicinity of KFWA to move north of airfield/dissipate by 00 UTC issuance. Mid level shortwave near Tennessee/Kentucky border and associated inverted surface trough to lift northward into Indiana overnight. Preceding low level theta-e plume/surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s lend boundary layer saturation with low level stratus/stratocumulus forming near sunrise throughout northern Indiana. As probabilistic HRRR guidance quite low with respect to IFR occurrence, have opted for fuel/alternate criteria for morning hours. Partial mixout into higher end MVFR dominant expected by late morning/midday with weakly forced/diurnally driven convection possible Monday afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...Roller LONG TERM...Roller AVIATION...Murphy Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
827 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... East and west coast seabreezes have merged near the I-75 corridor this evening as HRRR model has indicated. Storms will produce locally heavy rainfall along with strong wind gusts and frequent lightning in some locations from near Ocala to Gainesville...Lake City...and Lake Butler. The storms will move north into parts of se Ga before weakening and dissipating around midnight. Expect a repeat on Monday with seabreezes merging over the interior late day. && .PREV DISCUSSION [703 PM EDT]... .Short Term.../through Tuesday/... Surface high pressure will be east northeast of the region this period. The prevailing flow around this high will be from the southeast across the region, with the flow light enough to allow the east coast and gulf coast sea breezes the ability to move inland each afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms across SE GA have been driven by short wave energy lifting north across area, in addition to diurnal instability. The east coast sea breeze is expected to move well inland this afternoon, where it will converge with the gulf coast sea breeze. This convergence, combined with upper short wave energy, and diurnal instability will yield a band of convection late this afternoon and evening, generally along the I75 corridor. Due to expected slow movement of cells and potential for training of heavy rain, isolated flooding potential will exist this afternoon and evening. Inland convective activity could linger into the night. For Monday, upper energy will move north across area through early afternoon helping to initiate showers and storms. Later in the day, the convergence of the east coast and gulf coast sea breezes will drive convective chances over inland areas. Drier air will advect into region in the lower and mid levels on Tuesday, which will limit precipitation potential. Inland convection, due to sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability can not be ruled out, but the drier air will limit the coverage to isolated to scattered. Temperatures will trend near normal this period. .Long Term.../Tuesday night through Sunday/... Surface high pressure will remain to the east through Thursday. The high will sink to the southeast Thursday night through Friday, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US. Fairly dry airmass in place through Friday, but sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability will yield daily afternoon chances for a few showers and storms, mainly inland. This boundary is expected to stall across the area over the weekend, with an increase in convective coverage expected. A slow warming trend anticipated this period, with readings increasing to above seasonal averages. .AVIATION...[Through 00Z Tuesday] Showers and storms over inland areas will affect GNV between 00z- 04z with TEMPO IFR cigs/vsbys as seabreezes merge. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with TAF sites near the east coast remaining rain free tonight. For Monday there will be a chance of thunderstorms near the east coast 16z-20z Monday afternoon and at GNV after 20z as the seabreezes move inland and again merge over the interior. .Marine... High pressure will be east northeast of the region through Thursday. The high will move to the southeast Thursday night into Friday, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US. This boundary is expected to stall over the region over the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Monday NE FL: High Today. Moderate to High Monday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 87 70 88 69 / 60 70 40 20 10 SSI 77 83 74 83 74 / 10 20 10 10 0 JAX 75 89 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 10 0 SGJ 76 86 73 85 72 / 10 20 0 0 0 GNV 73 90 70 91 69 / 60 20 20 20 10 OCF 73 91 70 92 70 / 50 20 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... Increased PoPs further s into the PB. && .DISCUSSION... Radar shows slowly expanding coverage of high based -SHRA across sw parts of SE NM and the wrn PB. Meanwhile farther n TSRA are increasing in assocn with colliding outflow and dryline, and recently a 56 mph gusts was reported at Tatum as a cell moved across. HRRR still supportive of storms moving across the nrn tier of the CWFA thru around 08Z, a severe wind gusts or 2 cannot be ruled out. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Only concerns this forecast is low probability of TSRA to impact CNM/HOB/INK/MAF. Some high resolution models indicate convective potential thru about 04z/Mon with outflow resulting in wind shifts at above mentioned sites. For now we have omitted from the forecast due to low probability. Otherwise winds will turn back to se and even nw by tmw AM at PEQ/FST, but 10kts or less. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ DISCUSSION... Summer has officially arrived, temperatures this afternoon will sit in the mid 90s to low 100s in the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valley. Tonight`s low temps will hoover in the 70s across the region. An upper lvl low centered over OK has brought NNW upper lvl flow into the area transporting a short wave into CO/NM. The aforementioned short wave will chug into Lubbock`s area tonight possibly clipping Scurry County early Mon morning. The MCS is likely to keep precip north east of the CWA. SPC has the NE Permian Basin in a marginal this evening and tonight for hail and wind. An upper lvl ridge will move overhead Tue brining our first 100 degree temps this year. The dryline Tue will push farther eastward bring west downsloping winds supporting temperature increases. Upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead supporting multiple days of triple digit heat. There will be a chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain due to day time heating and orographic lifting throughout the week. A lack of shear will keep storms sub-severe but there could be dry lightning and gusty erratic winds. The ridge will strength Wed/Thu making those the warmest days. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will remain over the Southern Plains. A secondary trough likely flatten the ridge Sat bringing temps back down to near normal. Rain chances diminish in the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 94 70 100 / 20 10 0 0 Carlsbad 69 101 68 102 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 72 104 73 102 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 73 103 71 103 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 97 66 101 / 20 10 0 0 Marfa 62 95 59 97 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 99 70 102 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 70 99 71 102 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 70 104 68 105 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
846 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... A line of slow moving convection is skirting Eastern Arkansas at this time. The latest HRRR shows it might clip more of the area as the evening progresses. Otherwise, the rest of the CWA looks tranquil for the remainder of the night. As a result, raised POPS for Eastern Arkansas and reduced POPS elsewhere. New 00Z run of the HRRR shows another round of convection moving into Eastern Arkansas by the late morning hours tomorrow. The convection will move east across the rest of the CWA in the afternoon while additional convection develops with peak heating. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cut-off upper level low over Eastern Oklahoma. Shortwaves rotating around this upper level low are providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends indicate rain showers have been most prevalent along the MS/AL border and across Central and Western Arkansas with lesser coverage near the Mississippi River. Short term Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate ongoing showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish in coverage by this evening as afternoon heating is lost and overall shear remains very weak at best. Rain chances were lowered to scattered coverage but may need to be lowered to isolated if current trends persist. Otherwise, the aforementioned cut-off upper level low will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday and become more of an open wave trough towards Wednesday. This will result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms with the best coverage occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours when the best instability will be realized in a very weak shear environment. Long term models suggest the upper level ridge axis over the Southern Plains will gradually build into the Lower Mississippi Valley later this week into the upcoming weekend. However, it appears the Mid-South will initially be on the eastern periphery of the trough axis and shower and thunderstorm chances may persist through the first half of next weekend. Nonetheless, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. CJC && .AVIATION... Best chance for SHRAs/TSRAs in the short term will be at KJBR. Convection developing over SE AR should move through the KJBR area this evening staying mainly west of the MS River. Elsw expect MVFR conds this evening with little precip. Overnight into Monday morning expect cigs to lower to IFR. SHRA/TSRA coverage will increase due to surface heating Monday afternoon. Cigs will lift to VFR by mid afternoon. Winds around 10 kts from SSE/S through the period. SJM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1055 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... Current radar imagery shows isolated-to-scattered showers and storms located over Lake and Orange counties which have developed from outflow from showers/storms to the west/southwest. Goes-16 satellite imagery shows scattered to broken clouds across the region. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew-points in the low 70s. I waited for this evening`s update to see how precipitation would develop across east-central Florida as the HRRR has suggested precipitation would develop late into the night and has actually done a pretty decent job of handeling the setup this evening. Outflows from showers/storms upstream have continued to develop late into this evening which has triggered showers with embedded thunderstorms to develop over the far western portions of the County Warning Area. With that said, I have adjusted PoPs upwards across Lake and Orange counties through the next several hours. However, I expect precipitation to decrease in coverage with the area drying out by the early morning hours. Temperatures are on track to drop into the low to mid 70s overnight. && .AVIATION... Expect mostly VFR conditions throughout the TAF period outside of any showers or thunderstorms that may develop - mainly at KLEE. Cloud coverage is expected to decrease through the forecast period as high pressure continues to influence the region. Winds will lighten overnight and pick-up during the afternoon hours from the southeast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ .DISCUSSION... Through Tonight...Late morning Cape sounding shows noticeable dry air in the mid levels and this limiting coverage of showers and storms compared to previous days. However, some increase in coverage should occur through this evening as the east coast sea breeze and assocd outflows push farther inland with interaction between the larger lake breezes and ultimately he west coast sea breeze. The west coast sea breeze is much slower to push inland so the collision should occur west of Lake county toward sunset. Hi res models indicate some slight push back to the E/NE across Lake county after sunset so have kept 40-50 percent PoPs there this evening. Convection will gradually diminish around or shortly after midnight. The onshore flow will hold min temps to the upper 70s along the immediate coast and low to mid 70s inland. Monday-Thursday (previous)...The Atlantic low level ridge axis will set up across north FL before slipping back southward late week. Meanwhile, 500mb ridging builds in overhead, as a low over the southern plains drifts northward into the Midwest. Locally, winds becoming gradually more easterly Monday into Tuesday. Then, continuing Wednesday, before returning to southeasterly on Thursday as the axis begins to shift southward again. Onshore flow will filter in pockets of drier air, with PWATs falling to around 1.5-1.7", though at times below 1.5". Combined with subsidence aloft from the building 500mb ridge, expecting a reprieve from the high coverage convective pattern seen last week. PoPs each afternoon remaining around 20% or less, with the greatest chances occurring over the interior during the afternoon due to boundary collisions. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, by dry air should greatly inhibit vertical development. Temperatures remaining near to slightly above seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday-Saturday (previous)...The aforementioned ridge axis will progress southward into the weekend, as a trough pushes through the Southeast. Have maintained slight chance wording on Friday due to uncertainty. However, moisture values do look to increase into the weekend, as winds veer southerly ahead of the trough. For now, have PoPs around 20% on Friday, then up to 30% on Saturday. Temperatures increasing slightly, possibly reaching the mid-90s across portions of the interior, with low 90s elsewhere, even along the coast. Lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .MARINE... The Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain just north of the waters through Wednesday, producing an E/SE wind flow. Pressure gradient will support 10-15 knots with some slight enhancement each afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze. There will be a noticeable wind chop with combined seas 3 to 4 feet so boating conditions will be less than ideal but no headlines expected. As the ridge axis slips back southward, wind flow will veer SE Thu and S/SW Fri. Airmass will remain fairly dry so only isolated showers are expected through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 74 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 20 MLB 76 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 75 88 73 87 / 10 10 20 10 LEE 75 93 73 91 / 40 20 10 20 SFB 75 92 73 91 / 20 10 10 20 ORL 76 92 74 91 / 20 10 10 20 FPR 75 88 72 87 / 10 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Fehling/Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the Mid Atlantic into the Great lakes and a trough into the Pacific Northwest resulting in southwest flow from the northern plains into Northern Ontario. A vigorous shortwave trough was located over southern Manitoba. At the surface, low pressure was located over far northwest Ontario with a cold front extending south through the northwest corner of Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Breezy southwest winds gusting to 25 mph prevailed ahead of the front through the Upper Mississippi Valley into Upper Michigan. Temps into the lower 90s with dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s have dropped RH into the 30-35 pct range over the west half where the Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Vis loop showed only few flat cu over Upper Michigan with strong capping over the area. Tonight, expect another warm night with continued sw flow and low level mixing. Min temps will only fall into the mid and upper 60s with downslope winds keeping readings in the lower and mid 70s near Lake Superior. With only weak dynamic support and the relatively warm/dry mid levels ahead of the front, any shra/tsra that develop over MN are expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching Upper Michigan. Monday, the front will continue to sag into the area as the shrtwv moves from Hudson Bay to northern Quebec. There may be some showers developing near the front by late morning. However, enough moisture pooling near the front even with weak low level conv should be enough to support sct shra/tsra after heating boosts MLCAPE values into the 1k-2k J/Kg range. Relatively weak shear, especially over the south half will favor pulse like storms with the potential for some small hail and strong wind gusts. Lake breezes over the north will limit highs to the upper 70s and lower 80s while readings again near 90 are possible over the south. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021 Overall long term period will be dominated by the slow progression of an upper level ridge and positive height anomaly eastward through the Upper Great Lakes. This will leave our region at the mercy of any ridge rollers riding the top the ridge, dinural driven convection and in a period of continued above normal temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty similar. Upper level ridging will remove any strong synoptic forcing over the region, so expecting the weak gradient winds to allow for lake breezes to push inland each afternoon. As 850mb temps remain near 17-18C, above normal daytime temps are expected. Generally expecting inland areas to reach the mid-upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and mid-80s Wednesday. By the lakeshores, lake breezes will make it difficult to climb out of the 70s. There will be some convective potential mainly west and central, particularly in the afternoons as a weak shortwave could pass through. Overall with weak CIN to overcome, weak shortwave forcing and absent deep shear, dinural heating will result in steepening low level lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE to around 1500j/kg. The result could be some pulsey type convection developing by afternoon. Best areas for longer lived convection looks to be in proximity to the lake breeze boundaries, where enhanced convergence could support some longer lived showers or thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential looks minimal. PWATs near 1.6 inches will allow for heavy downpour potential in any thunderstorm that develop though. Early week overnight periods also look similar. With the warmer airmass lingering over the region, lows should fall into the low 60s to upper 50s. Lingering shower or thunderstorm activity from any daytime development could persist into the early evening hours before losing its steam. Another shortwave with more synoptic forcing potential looks to dip southeast into the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Deep layer shear looks to be a little higher as the surface boundary moves through, but its still a little early to pinpoint where the best forcing will be. For now, will maintain the chance pops and chance thunder from the previous forecast. Daytime temperatures in the later half of the week and into the weekend look to still be warm, but do follow a slow downward progression. GEFS 850mb mean temps start out around 16C but `cool` off to 13C by Saturday and Sunday. The same solutions are supported by the EPS and GEPS. Overall this looks like temps this weekend topping out near 80F in the warm spots and near 70 or in the 70s by the lakeshores. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021 With relatively dry low levels persisting, VFR conditions are expected thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Expect LLWS to develop at all terminals tonight as low-level jet translates across the area in advance of a weakening cold front. That front may generate isold to sct aftn shra/tsra on Mon across the interior of Upper MI. KSAW has the best chc of seeing some shra in the vcnty. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021 South winds to 25 knots will continue tonight. However, very stable conditions with the cold water will limit the potential for stronger winds near the lake surface. Expect wind speeds less than 20 knots through the rest of the forecast period. Fog may become an issue early this week if significant rain develops which does not look likely at this time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for MIZ002>005-009>011-084. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
453 PM MST Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A slight cooling trend starting today will see temperatures cool a few degrees each day through early week with below normal highs by Tuesday. The isolated afternoon mountain showers and storms seen the past several days will mostly shift into New Mexico and be replaced with drier conditions that will last this week and into next weekend. A gradual warming trend for the latter half of the week will see temperatures climb back to above normal by next weekend. && The large scale pattern depicts a NE PAC trough axis moving into the NW US coast, with a small cut-off low positioned offshore/W of N Baja. The RAP and Mesoscale analysis showed a ridge axis from the S AZ-NM border northeast to CO. A weak, dry H5 trough axis and vort max was near the Lower Colorado River-SW-Cent AZ with fairly weak S flow aloft. WV imagery showed an area of elevated moisture ahead of the offshore Baja low approaching S CA/N Baja with dry air over S- Cent AZ. Midday METSAT imagery depicted the clear to mostly clear skies being observed across the area. The weak troughing aloft will result in slightly cooler above normal highs today as Phoenix heads for a high of 105 degrees, a few degrees cooler than yesterday`s 108 degrees. The models are in good agreement on ejecting the offshore UL Baja low NE across S CA and NW AZ from tomorrow into Tuesday morning. At the same time a longwave trough further N digs across the offshore W Coast area and the ridge amplifies over the Plains. The shortwave is relatively dry as fairly modest PW are held in check across the region during the early week, although a swath of high clouds in advance of the low should cross the area tomorrow along with some virga to help assist in the second day of the cooling trend. Some very breezy/gusty conditions will also spread E across SE CA Mon afternoon and evening including very pronounced sundowner winds in Imperial Cty along with a chance of patchy lofted blowing dust and fire weather concerns. On Tuesday the cooling trend culminates with dry SW flow aloft E of the EPAC offshore trough. Below normal highs on Tue will range from the upper 90s to 100 for Phoenix and the lower deserts, and the mid to upper 90s out west. For Wed the Clusters analysis favors a fairly stagnant amplified pattern with dry SW flow aloft continuing E of the offshore trough, and the high pressure anomaly strengthens over the E Cent Plains. Then late in the week and the weekend Clusters favor slight variations on a somewhat less amplified pattern with the offshore low filling and retrograding and the E ridge flattening although while its SW flank shifts more towards/into the S-Rockies or Desert SW. The possible ensuing warming trend could see temperatures back to normal late this week and above normal by the weekend. There is still some uncertainty on the position and orientation of the large scale pattern for this period along with some associated model spread in late week temperatures. Although several degrees above normal and a return to moderate heat risk by the weekend is still favored. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2350Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Southwesterly flow this evening will subside before winds shift to easterly around midnight. For Monday, mid and high clouds will increase ahead of a weak low pressure system. No rain is expected, however isolated virga could produce localized, erratic winds. Otherwise, breezy conditions are likely again during the afternoon with southwesterly gusts up to 15-20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy conditions will subside later this evening, but will redevelop again Monday afternoon with gusts as high as 25-30 kt at KIPL. Somewhat weaker winds are anticipated at KBLH. Winds will also generally retain a southerly component through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wednesday through Sunday: No significant changes to the forecast...Winds will relax somewhat during the middle and end of the week with conditions becoming more typical for mid June. Regardless, fuels will remain very dry as Max temps will favor near normal through Fri and then increase to above normal for the weekend. Afternoon wind gusts 15-25 mph will be common resulting in a slightly elevated fire danger throughout the week. Min RH will stay in the single digits while overnight recovery remains poor to fair and only in the 10-35% range. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sawtelle AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle/AD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
611 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 608 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Activity has decreased near the Spring Burn Scar so have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch. Will continue to see thunderstorms propagate eastward across the plains overnight well to the east. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Main Concerns: 1) Spring burn scar flash flood potential this evening Currently...Widespread convection and mostly cloudy skies from essentially the I-25 Corridor and westward as of 230 PM, with some threats to area burn scars as well. Meanwhile, the far eastern plains remain sunny. Temps have warmed into the 80s to around 90F for the plains, and into the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys. Tonight and tomorrow...As was expected, a good amount of convection fired over the higher terrain by midday and has provided for pcpn and small hail along the eastern mts and westward. There has been some spillover across El Paso County, but for the most part the I-25 Corridor south of El Paso County has been clear so far. Models are continuing to show that these storms will eventually push off the mts and head east across the plains tonight, coming to an end right around 11 PM or midnight. So far, have not seen this movement as storms have remained hugging the mts, and in fact were somewhat training just north of the Springs burn scar. Because of this training effect, had to hoist a Flash Flood Watch for that area. Given the amount of rain the Spring scar has received yesterday, it will likely not take much more in a short period of time. Main threats through this evening for the plains will be wind gusts to 50 mph, brief periods of heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning and small hail. Mostly clear skies overnight, then less of a threat for convection tomorrow as the upper ridge tries to push back into the region. There is some CAPE to work with along the eastern border, but shear and dynamics are minimal so do not see convection beginning until 2 or 3 pm, and being very isolated. Plan on somewhat mild overnight low temps tonight, with readings in the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Monday looks like it will be another hot one, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 ...Evening thunderstorms will be possible over the plains on Monday, a slight chance a few of these storms could become severe. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over the central and eastern plains on Saturday and a slight chance on Sunday as well, with some storms being possibly severe on Saturday... Monday evening... An U/L cut off low is going to be absorbed into the trough upstream and help to add some moisture and instability later in the evening on Monday. Some isolated thunderstorms that have developed earlier in the day over the mountains will move across the plains throughout the evening and there is a chance that some of these could become severe as they move over the far eastern plains as they move into a more unstable environment, with MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg near the Kansas Border. This is primarily skinny CAPE, therefore the main threat with these storms will be large hail and strong gusty outflow winds. HRRR is still showing the possible development af an MCS over eastern Las Animas County and then moving into Baca County...there has been some consistency with the timing of this developing right around 00Z. HRRR is also showing in the latest model run, another MCS developing around 02Z over southeastern El Paso County and northeastern Pueblo County, and then propagating down to the southeast over Crowley, Bent, Otero, and Kiowa counties. The NAM Nest is picking up on the MCS over Las Animas County as well, although later around 02Z, and by then has all of the convection having already weaken and moved out of the Palmer Divide area. The models do tend to agree with all of the convection winding down by 06Z as daytime heating diminishes, and CINH values are below -200 J/kg. After this time, clearing will continue and lows will only fall to the mid 50s to low 60s over the plains, and generally 40s for all other locations above 8000 ft and in the San Luis Valley. Tuesday through Saturday... Ridging is going to continue to establish itself over the central plains as the long wave troughing remains over the northwestern region of the US, there will only be some minor perturbations in the pattern as some of major and minor shortwaves transition mainly to the north of Colorado. There is going to be one major shortwave propagating to the north and eventually over the northern plains that could have a frontal boundary with it extending down and nearly into the CWA on Thursday, which could allow for some convection to initiate along the boundary over the far northeastern plains, mainly Kiowa County later in the evening. There could also be a dry line setting up for Saturday during the afternoon as there will be continued dry southwesterly winds at the surface and some mid level flow of moisture upstream, as well as an increased southerly flow with more moisture and high dewpoints ahead of this over the eastern plains. All of these could set up a scenario for a potential severe weather evening over the central and eastern plains for Saturday. The ECMWF model also hints at possible thunderstorms over much of the CWA for Sunday as well, although the GFS has a drier run, showing no precipitation for Sunday. With the amplified ridge overhead throughout the next week, coupled with adiabatically warming downsloping winds out of the southwest, expect that temperatures are going to get even slightly warmer over the next few days with very hot temperatures for maximums over much of the CWA, especially over the plains. Some areas could experience high temperatures over 100 degrees in the Lower Arkansas River Valley on Tuesday, with record highs possible in certain locations. There will only be a slight cooldown going into the weekend, although temperatures for the plains will still be in the low 90s and mid 80s for the San Luis Valley. -Steward && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 General northerly flow aloft will push convection to the south through early evening. Focus for storms will gradually shift from the mts to the plains through the evening where the greatest available moisture lies. Convection will diminish by 05z, with mostly clear skies overnight. KALS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. VCTS through roughly 02z with winds gusting up to around 30 kts. KCOS and KPUB: Overall, VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. However, convection over the higher terrain will affect both sites with VCTS. Forecast of TSRA with variable gusty outflow winds and vsby restriction until 03z, with intermittent MVFR conditions. Improving conditions from 03z onward. Less convective activity forecast for tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...MOORE