Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A few high-based cumulus clouds are producing evaporating light
rain/virga in western and central areas of the state, but all
thunderstorm activity has pushed in to the eastern plains of New
Mexico. Brief downpours, gusty downburst winds, small hail, and of
course lightning will be the main aviation weather hazards in the
eastern plains through mid evening. A slow clearing trend will then
be underway into the early morning Monday, but some smoke from
wildfires in New Mexico and Arizona will potentially expand overnight
with MVFR visibilities possible, especially in southwestern to
central parts of New Mexico. Less thunderstorm activity is expected
Monday with only the very far eastern tier of New Mexico near the
Texas border retaining sufficient moisture for storms.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...234 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Enjoy today and Monday`s isolated to scattered storms moving
southeast off the northern mountains while you can, one or two storms
become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Near surface
smoke will also linger through parts of west-central NM, potentially
reaching into the Rio Grande Valley Monday morning from ABQ to
Socorro. Otherwise, the forecast turns much drier and hotter for the
upcoming work week. High temperatures soar into the 90s through the
Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for Tucumcari and
Roswell.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the northern
mountains and portions of northeast NM this afternoon. These storms
will continue to shift toward the south-southeast through the
evening. The main concern with these storms, similarly to last night,
is gusty and erratic winds. This is especially true as they get
closer to the Texas border where DCAPE values should approach 2000
J/kg. A few severe wind gusts are not out of the question late this
afternoon and evening. Hail will be a secondary threat, though if
hail occurs, it will mostly be small. Storms should diminish and/or
move into Texas by midnight.
Elsewhere, virga may create some gusty and erratic winds as well.
However, the primary concern will be smoke that is expected to move
in from fires in AZ this evening. Morning satellite imagery showed
substantial smoke within the San Francisco River Valley and it`s
possible that may happen again overnight into Monday morning, In
fact, HRRR smoke progs suggest that smoke may reach as far as the
Rio Grande Valley from ABQ southward. Thus, expect some haze Monday
morning.
Dry air will continue to filter into the state on Monday. This will
limit convection even further, and any storms that do form should
favor northeast NM. Gusty and erratic wind gusts will again be the
main concern with these storms. This activity should shift into
OK/TX by 7-8pm. Quiet night in store for Monday night, though low
temperatures will be a bit cooler across western NM thanks to the
drier air. Also, depending on how active the fires are in AZ, smoke
may return to portions of western NM.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
There are no big changes to the long term forecast with this package.
Northern and central NM will be located beneath dry and warm
southwest flow aloft, sandwiched between a synoptic scale troughing
pattern over the PacNW and a 590-595 H5 high developing over the
Chihuahua Desert. Daytime temperatures skyrocket into the 90s for the
Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for the lower
Pecos and Canadian River Valleys at Tucumcari and Roswell. A few
bouts of afternoon windy conditions will reach the area Tuesday and
Thursday with a couple of systems shooting through the SW flow aloft.
Otherwise, there are no major sensible weather impacts forecast
outside of the hot and very dry conditions.
The upper high gets squished over northern Mexico Friday leading into
the weekend with the upper level flow pattern turning more zonal,
while a backdoor surface front edges into northeastern NM Friday.
Temperatures fall back across the east thanks to this surface front
heading into the weekend. Low-level moisture behind the front will
also help increase chances for a few afternoon storms developing
along and east of the central mountain chain next weekend, but
overall PoPs are still isolated to scattered at best.
34/24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms across north central and northeast NM will
continue to move south-southeastward through the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds are the main concern with these storms. On Monday,
storms will be focused across northeast NM while the remainder of
the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Winds may be breezy as well.
In fact, hot, dry and unstable conditions will be the rule Tuesday
through Friday. As for the details: High temperatures will be a few
to several degrees above normal each afternoon; On average, 6 to 12
hours of single digit humidity values can be expected each day; and
haines values of 5 to 6 will be common. Winds will be strongest on
Tuesday and Thursday, with breezy to windy conditions likely across
the eastern plains. Fortunately, this is the area where recent
rainfall and green up has occurred, thus mitigating the critical
fire weather threat. Winds should remain below critical thresholds
across the west. Moisture may try to eek back into the eastern
plains next weekend, but it isn`t looking as promising as it was
yesterday. Certainly, hot conditions will continue as an upper high
will be centered just to the south of NM.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
712 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Still following the idea that storms in NM will push an outflow
east that will eventually lead to development of overnight
storms. Better storm chances are expected as the boundary
reaches perhaps around a GUY to AMA line as the west is currently
in an area of large scale subsidence and this is not expected to
improve until a bit later into the evening as the upper low
centered in ERN OK lifts NE away from the area. So CAMs idea of
holding off on development along the boundary before developing
storms around 3 UTC does make sense. The amount of convection that
does form is still bit up for debate, but the SPC RAP seems a
little more excited about it of late, so additional updates could
be required to increase chcs. We remain in a marginal severe
potential with only very modest wind shear being a main limiting
factor.
For tomorrow, a more robust wave seen best at H3 and H25
will move across the area beginning around 00Z. The big questions
are where will tonights boundary be tomorrow when this occurs,
what will moisture profiles look like and will the wave be strong
enough to break a cap. A slight chc POP has been included in the
forecast for Mon night despite NBM keeping POPs less than 10
percent area wide. Seeing higher coverage of storms in the SCT
range is certainly a possibility if things come together, and if
they do not, very few storms may develop. Again, the area is
included in a marginal SVR risk with favorable high CAPE forecast,
but wind shear remains very much a limiting factor given
extremely weak mid-upper level flow (generally <20 kts).
&&
.AVIATION...
TSTMS will be in the area later this evening and into the
overnight hours and again very late in the TAF period and beyond
into Mon evening. The only site with high enough potential to
mention chcs in the TAF is AMA late this evening, and even so,
only VCTS is shown for now. It appears a repeat of IFR stratus
around sunrise will occur, but it is mainly expected to remain
just east of AMA to GUY. This will have to be watched closely. If
SFC winds turn more easterly toward morning as depicted by a few
models, this would increase the chcs of these clouds moving
further west and impacting TAF sites Mon morning. For now,
maintaining VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday Night...
Upper trough over eastern OK will continue to provide northerly mid
flow to the central and eastern Panhandles. Dryline continues to
hold in eastern NM, with a weak to modest cap to the east.
Convection already occurring over the eastern NM mountains, with
storm motion looks out of the north, will likely keep things in NM
until 9 to 10 PM tonight. While its possible that we might see some
storms develop this evening over the western Panhandles, it seems
more favorable that the storms to the west in eastern NM will track
east across the southern Panhandles with a shortwave tonight. Storms
could be isolated to scattered in nature as they move east and it`s
possible that not much of the Panhandles will see an impact. With
ML CAPE values ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear in the
30 to 40 kt range, as well as effective helicity around 100-200
m2/s2, severe storms will certainly be possible. Overall time of
storms will be from the 9P-5A time period tonight, with Amarillo
looking to be right around midnight to 2AM. The best dynamics
really favor the southern Panhandle for storms, but still will not
rule out storms to the north. The southeast has a slightly
increased chance of a tornado threat due to the low level jet
kicking in late tonight. Storms would have to be surface based for
the tornado threat to hold, unless there`s a boundary that the storms
can work with, it looks like storms will remain elevated, which
should keep the tornado threat in check.
With the upper trough further east and a more westerly flow over the
Panhandles on Monday, another round of storms are expected to
develop over the eastern NM mountains and take a more westerly track
over the Panhandles as another shortwave is expected to help push it
along. Multi-cells might merge into a cluster and become more of a
linear wind threat in the evening. Right now the western Panhandles
are more favored for severe weather, as storm may start to fizzle
out as they track towards the eastern Panhandles.
Weber
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Very warm temperatures, well above normal for early June and dry
conditions are expected through the majority of the long term
forecast period. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms return
by the coming weekend.
In the wake of ridge roller storms very early Tuesday morning,
conditions will dry out and warm up through the end of the work
week. An S-N H500 ridge will build into the central Plains before
tilting to more SW-NE by Friday. Large scale subsidence in the
column and notable daytime heating will take place. With the
exception of the CMC keeping the dryline across the western
Panhandles, latest 06/12Z model and numerical data has a
persistent south to southwest surface winds which will enhance
downsloping flow and adiabatic warming at the surface and mix the
dryline into the eastern Panhandles, especially as H500 flow
becomes more SSW by the coming mid week. At its peak, well
defined H850 WAA of average values of 34C to 36C will advect into
the Panhandles, especially by Wednesday and Thursday. This will
result in temperatures above average topping out in the 90s for
Tuesday and 100-105 range for most of the Panhandles on Wednesday
and Thursday, with triple digit heat possible even for Amarillo.
Will have to watch Palo Duro Canyon closely with a high
temperature value as high as 106, where headlines may be needed.
A weak cold front will move south into the Panhandles on Friday
dropping temperatures back into the 90s. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms return for Saturday as a mid level disturbance
move east across portions of the High Plains. Temperatures Friday
and Saturday will remain above average in the 90s.
Meccariello
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions expected for the next 12 hours, possibly for the
entire TAF period. There is a window for storms, most likely in
the 00z-06z time frame. Did cover with VCTS for the best targeted
time frame. Exception would be KGUY, with not thunder mention, due
to the low confidence in storms for the north central Panhandles.
Low clouds expected again after 06z, but still some questions as
to just how low the cigs will get at the TAF sites. For now, just
holding a BKN/OVC 5kft deck, but there is certainly room for
MVFR/IFR cigs to at least make it to KAMA and KGUY, maybe even
KDHT, as LIFR conditions managed to make it to all sites this
morning. If MVFR/IFR conditions return the cigs should start to
improve by 13-15z.
Weber
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
250 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...
Satellite imagery shows weak ridging over our region, with
departing trof to our northeast moving into Manitoba, and the next
upstream low off the PacNW coast. Our weather will remain fairly
quiet over the next 36 hours as the western low continues to drop
along the coast. Temps will remain a bit above normal with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Monday.
There are couple items to work out. First is a weak shortwave
which will emerge from the Pacific low and lift thru western and
north central MT tonight. There may be enough mid level moisture
and forcing to produce some light showers in Wheatland County this
evening (as boundary layer flow turns to the E/SE), but the
better potential will be to our west and north. In our far
southeast we will see some return moisture and elevated
instability as a modest low level jet develops...and an isolated
t-storm could impact Carter/Fallon Counties between 05-09z. Latest
HRRR runs have been trending in this direction. In fact, if a
storm develops, there could be enough shear/instability for small
hail.
On Monday, as aforementioned wave lifts into Canada and we undergo
height rises, we will see another push of northerly surface winds.
At the same time, a weak shortwave will lift out of Colorado by
the evening. It appears we will see more stable north winds reach
far southeast MT before this wave arrives, so t-storm potential
seems to be just southeast of our forecast area. Will keep a dry
forecast through Monday night, but this will also be something to
watch.
JKL
Tuesday through Sunday...
Overall pattern remains the same for the extended, with southwest
flow and lower heights to the west, with higher heights to the
east. A couple different shortwaves will lift through the region,
bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
first wave will lift through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening
into Wednesday, with the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. The other wave looks to affect the area for
Thursday. Otherwise, expect most of the extended to be generally
dry. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s, but
some locations could see the lower 90s at times. Lows should
generally be in the 50s. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies through
Monday. A few showers are possible near KHWQ this evening, and
isolated storms could develop near KBHK & K97M between 05-09z. If
a storm develops in far southeast MT tonight it could produce
local MVFR/IFR. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/081 056/084 057/092 059/083 049/079 052/089 057/093
00/U 02/T 21/U 22/T 21/U 00/U 11/U
LVM 043/080 050/081 049/087 050/074 041/077 046/085 050/089
00/U 02/T 11/U 35/T 21/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 049/083 055/088 055/094 059/088 048/081 050/090 057/095
00/U 02/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 00/U 10/U
MLS 053/083 060/093 061/088 064/090 051/078 052/088 059/093
00/U 12/T 31/U 11/U 21/U 10/U 11/U
4BQ 054/085 058/096 061/090 065/093 051/079 053/089 059/092
00/U 12/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U
BHK 053/086 058/093 060/086 062/091 050/077 052/087 056/089
20/U 12/T 41/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 049/083 053/089 055/092 058/087 046/080 049/088 055/091
00/U 02/T 20/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered well east of the Carolina Coast
will help to channel very warm and more humid air north into
the Commonwealth for much of the upcoming work week. This heat
and humidity will interact with terrain features, along with a
few weak surface fronts and upper level disturbances, to bring
several rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fair and warm conditions are expected overnight across most if
not all of the region under anomalous upper level ridge. Latest
GEFS and RAP track a weak shortwave northward into Ohio late
tonight. Forcing ahead of this feature, combined with a surge of
higher pwats, support a slight chance of a shower toward dawn
over the Laurel Highlands.
Latest HREF and NAMNest suggest light wind and increasing low
level moisture could result in some patchy late night valley fog
across the southeast half of the forecast area. Min temps
tonight should be 4-6 deg F warmer than last night`s and will
vary from near 60F over the northwest mountains, to around 70F
across the Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep southerly flow between Bermuda High and upper low over
the Miss Valley will advect much higher PWAT air of 1.5 to 2.0
inches into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Diurnal heating
of this air mass should yield scattered PM convection both
days. Weak deep-layer shear and tall skinny cape profiles will
favor pulse storms capable of producing locally heavy rain, but
little risk of severe weather. The wettest members of the HREF
support the possibility of localized amounts of 2-3 inches,
which is unlikely to cause more than minor flooding given latest
FFG numbers.
Convection-allowing models indicate initial development Monday
will occur along the higher terrain of the Alleghenies during
the midday and early afternoon hours, before the chc ramps up
acrs the Susq Valley later in the afternoon and evening Monday.
Increased cloud cover and convection both Monday and Tuesday
should result in max temps anywhere from 2 to 5F lower than
today (Sunday). Look for highs to range from around 80F across
the higher terrain of the Laurels and NW, to near 90F across the
Lower Susq Valley.
Dewpoints will be in the 60s and perhaps touch 70F on Monday,
making it feel more uncomfortable. The slightly lower temps
during the daytime will keep heat index values well below heat
advy (100) levels - generally in the 80s and lower 90s.
The summer pattern with light flow aloft and sct-numerous aftn
SHRA/TSRA will continue on Tues. Some better organized clusters
of TSRA with locally heavy rain are expected Tuesday as a
frontal boundary at the sfc and disturbance aloft approaches
from the west.
The humidity will be much more noticeable with the RH not going
below 60pct for most places in the aftn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The bulk of medium range guidance supports warm and humid
conditions with a good chance of primarily PM convection
Wednesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. This front will
likely stall out just south of the state late in the week,
though latest GFS and Euro show multiple waves of low pressure
moving along the front late week and into he weekend which will
continue to bring chances for showers each day. A lot can change
between now and then with subtle features such as this, so
overall confidence is low in the late extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High and mid-level cloudiness will begin to stream in from the
southwest tonight, but VFR prevails for practically the entire
area, outside of some patchy 3-5SM vsbys in light fog/haze late
tonight/early Monday.
The week ahead looks increasingly humid, with a daily chance
for mainly aftn and evening showers or storms.
Outlook...
Monday-Thursday...Predominantly VFR, although scattered aftn
showers/storms may cause brief restrictions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The maxT record was set at BFD on Sat (84F), and the 88F at AOO
tied the record max there. AOO also tied their record max on Sun
of 89F.
Record Maxes:
June 6 7 8 9
IPT 100 96 98 99
MDT 99 96 96 97
AOO 89 92 94 93
JST 98 94 98 98
BFD 86 84 88 88
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis/Wagner
AVIATION...Gutierrez
CLIMATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR skies will continue through most of this evening. Beginning
04-05Z, we will see low clouds return to the I-35 corridor with cigs
initially MVFR, then lowering into IFR 07-14Z. MVFR cigs begin a
little later at DRT, with 09-15Z being favored. As we head into
tomorrow morning, we will need to monitor for the possibility of TSRA
at AUS as a complex of storms moves out of west central TX. For now,
we will not mention in the forecast as confidence is fairly low at
this time. Cigs lift and scatter tomorrow afternoon, with VFR
returning to I-35 19-20Z and DRT around 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A mid level impulse is generating a few showers over the Hill
Country to our Central Texas counties this afternoon. A brief
thunderstorm or two are possible. These will move off to east by
evening.
The upper level low will move from Oklahoma tonight to Missouri
Monday night as the Subtropical Ridge begins to build along the Rio
Grande. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over eastern New
Mexico into the Texas Plains this afternoon into evening. The low
level jet will feed into these storms allowing them to organize. A
northwesterly flow aloft will take them into Central Texas overnight
into Monday morning. There is some uncertainty on the southern
extent of the storms. For now, will have POPs across the eastern
Hill Country to the Austin area to along US 77 corridor. Convective
parameters indicate there is a potential for gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rains. The showers and thunderstorms will move off to
the east midday to early afternoon.
The HRRR indicates a potential for showers and thunderstorms late
Monday night due to another storm complex. However, at this time,
expect it to be farther north.
With the Subtropical Ridge beginning to build into our area,
temperatures will become more summer like.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Mid-level ridging pattern builds across South-Central Texas from
Mexico to the southwest and will remain settled across the region
through the middle to latter half of the week. This results in a
period of much drier weather (in terms of rainfall rather than
humidity) across the region. May need to keep an eye out for any
residual rain chances or moisture Tuesday morning but that all
depends on how the short term plays out with any convective
complexes that could possibly approach and/or enter the northern
portions of the CWA. For now, will leave any PoPs out of the long
term forecast until Sunday. Overall, expect for mostly sunny to
partly cloudy afternoons under a moderate to at times breezy
southeasterly flow. Winds trend lighter into each night with
increasing low clouds during the overnight.
Main weather story for the long term period is the return of the
temperatures to near or even slightly above the climatological
average. In addition, the humidity will stick around with the
surface dew points generally ranging from the upper 60s to the
middle 70s. The peak heat index value in the afternoons approach
into the lower to middle 100s for many, including portions of the
Austin and San Antonio metros. Despite these conditions being
rather common for this time of year, people may not be fully
acclimated to these conditions yet this year given the last few
weeks of below average temperatures and wet weather. For those
people spending time outdoors should take frequent breaks, drink
plenty of water and apply sunscreen regularly. The highest heat
index values across the region look to focus during midweek from
Tuesday through Thursday.
A slight chance for PoPs will reenter the forecast across the far
eastern counties into the second half of the weekend as the mid-
range model guidance shows the possibly of a shortwave skirting
around the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 89 75 91 75 / 10 20 10 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 89 75 91 76 / 10 20 10 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 92 76 93 76 / 10 10 - - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 72 88 73 90 74 / 20 40 10 10 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 101 77 / 10 - 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 75 90 75 / 20 50 10 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 75 / - 10 - - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 91 75 92 75 / 10 20 - - 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 91 78 92 78 / - 30 - - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 - - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 77 94 77 94 76 / - 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Monday Night/
No major changes to the previous forecast for the remainder of
tonight. Visible satellite imagery and radar shows most of North
Texas quiet at this hour with only scattered cumulus, but activity
is expected to increase overnight with widespread showers and
thunderstorms by morning. Latest objective analysis from the RAP
shows an axis of strong instability extending across the Big
Country into the eastern Panhandle this evening. This corresponds
to an area of high surface theta-e and is where low level moisture
convergence is beginning to increase. As low level flow
strengthens tonight and warm advection becomes focused to our
northwest, we should see a rapid increase in showers and
thunderstorms. This activity should become semi-organized and
march toward North Texas. While there could be some isolated
severe wind gusts, the main concern will be for additional locally
heavy rainfall, especially into Monday morning along the I-20
corridor. With grounds nearly saturated, additional rainfall
should result in rapid runoff and potential for flash flooding.
This activity should move east of the area during the day Monday
with the potential for additional thunderstorms late Monday night
into Tuesday morning.
For the remainder of tonight into Monday, we`ve raised PoPs
slightly with no other significant changes needed at this time.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/
After what will likely turn out to be a wet Monday, we`ll have to
continue to monitor yet again the threat of another complex
developing west of our area and moving into portions of North and
Central Texas Monday night. Given the threat for heavy rain atop
saturated soils, there is a renewed flash flooding threat through
the night. If this is the case, there is a possibility the Flash
Flood Watch for tonight may be extended through tomorrow night to
account for the continued threat.
A pattern shift will begin taking shape as we move toward the
middle of the week as an expanding ridge across Northern Mexico
and West Texas begins to nose into our region. This will
effectively shut off precipitation chances Wednesday through the
rest of the week. Temperatures will respond appropriately,
especially west of US-281, where mid to upper 90s are looking more
likely. With strong evapotranspiration leading to elevated
humidity levels and hot temperatures in place, heat index values
are likely to exceed 100 degrees in the aformentioned area. For
the rest of North and Central Texas, heat index values Tuesday
onward will range between the mid to upper 90s.
If the area of high pressure responsible for the hot temperatures
shrinks next weekend, it`s possible a shortwave and attendant
cold front make their way through the area. Along the front, a
few showers and storms may develop east of I-35, where the best
humidity will be located. Cooler temperatures will then be
possible in the wake of next weekend`s forecast.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR prevails across the region at this hour and the trend should
continue into the overnight hours. We`ll be watching a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms approach from the northwest late tonight
into Monday. For now, we`ll have 10Z as the start time for VCTS
and prevail TSRA at 11Z. Scattered thunderstorms should persist
for much of the morning before moving off to the east. VFR should
prevail behind the precipitation tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 84 73 89 75 / 70 100 50 20 5
Waco 71 85 74 89 74 / 20 90 20 10 5
Paris 69 80 70 84 72 / 40 90 60 40 10
Denton 67 82 70 86 72 / 90 100 50 10 5
McKinney 70 82 71 87 73 / 60 100 50 20 5
Dallas 73 84 74 89 76 / 60 90 50 20 5
Terrell 70 82 72 87 74 / 30 90 40 20 5
Corsicana 72 85 75 89 75 / 20 90 20 20 5
Temple 70 87 73 90 74 / 10 60 10 5 5
Mineral Wells 69 84 71 89 72 / 90 90 50 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CDT Monday through Monday evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131-133>135-145-146-148.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep
layer southwest flow in place across the western Great Lakes,
ahead of a cold front that is entering western Minnesota. Moisture
appears to be increasing in the low levels as evident by
convective cloud formation surging northward across Wisconsin.
Despite moistening of the airmass, the airmass remains
unsupportive of thunderstorm development. Looking to the west, the
front remains largely inactive except for far northwest Minnesota
closer to stronger upper level support. As this front slides east
and moisture surges northward, thunderstorm chances remain the
main forecast concern in the short term.
Tonight...The cold front will lose definition as it moves into
northwest Wisconsin after midnight. Forecast soundings continue to
show an atmosphere that is capped to convection (cap centered
around 700mb). In addition, upper level forcing via shortwave
energy peels off to the north and don`t think weak convergence
along the front will be enough to break the cap. As a result, will
leave a dry forecast in tact. Higher moisture air will continue to
surge in from the south, and this may make min temps a degree or
two warmer than last night.
Monday... Southern stream weak shortwave energy will be impacting
areas from the central Mississippi Valley to the southern Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, will still have the remnants of the cold front
stretched out over northern Wisconsin. As temperatures approach
the convective temps by around midday, may see a few showers and
storms develop with the heat of the day. Deep layer shear is less
than 20 kts so the threat of severe weather remains low. Highs
will range from the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
Upper ridging over most of the nation east of the Rockies will
make for warm temperatures and mostly dry weather through the end
of the work week. There could be scattered showers along lake
breezes or weak fronts in the afternoon or evening. Temperatures
will average about 10 degrees above normal.
Much of the area has had below normal rainfall so far this year,
and the corn planted to our south has not grown too much yet, so
dewpoints should not get too high this week. It will definitely
feel like summer, however.
The NWP models forecast jet energy approaching from the eastern
Pacific to flatten the ridge at the end of the week, with slightly
cooler temperatures for next Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Patchy
mid/high clouds will persist through the night, with diurnal
cumulus reforming during the late morning and afternoon Monday.
The coverage of the convective cloudiness will be greater than
on Sunday, as a more moist air mass will reside over the region.
A weak cold front will approach the northwest part of the forecast
area overnight, but is not expected to be strong enough to
generate any shower activity. However, this boundary will linger
across northern WI on Monday, and could help to trigger a few
showers or storms later Monday afternoon and early evening. These
could impact the RHI TAF site, so will add VCSH after 20z. A lake
breeze boundary could also generate a few showers or storms near
the lakeshore counties in the late afternoon and early evening, so
will likewise include VCSH at the MTW TAF site.
Low-level wind shear will impact northern WI overnight, so will
continue the mention in the RHI TAF through 10z/Monday. Lighter
surface winds are anticipated during the day on Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
A warm season pattern is expected this week with times of showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoons. Slightly
above normal temperatures are also expected this week with highs
in the 80s and increasing humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
A 700 mb shortwave continued moving north this afternoon and that
in conjunction with a theta-e advection wing and diurnal forcing
have set off some nuisance showers this afternoon. These are
expected to die off this evening. Models also bring broken to
overcast stratus north into the area on the heals of that
vorticity wing. Stratus was observed in the Tennessee Valley
moving north behind that wing this morning. This extra cloudiness
should put a floor on how low overnight low temps can get tonight
holding them at either side of 70 degrees. Early Monday morning,
models bring another vort max north out in front of the eastward
drifting upper low. This is on the nose of a low level jet and is
colocated with some surface convergence and a weak theta-e surge
so will continue with the previous forecaster`s mention of PoPs to
start Monday morning. Clouds will continue to hang tough on the
northward advection of moisture and this will provide a cap on
high temps keeping them in the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
The energy associated with a slow lumbering upper low will be the
forcing for a good portion of this upcoming work week until we
can get another trough in behind it to kick it out of the area.
The next trough is forecast to do just that around the end of the
work week or by next Saturday.
As a result of the lingering meandering forcing, we`ll have clouds
around to the tune of partly to mostly cloudy skies many of the days
this week, but can`t rule out a peak of sunshine here and there. It
certainly won`t rain all the time and will be dependent on any
boundaries and sunshine that allow for instability. There won`t be
much flow to be able to move cells around so if any thunderstorms do
move in or are able to form, they`ll have 1.5+ in PWATs to work with
and could create locally heavy rain as long as they have some
instability to work with. Tried to blend to previous forecaster`s
PoPs as well as create some sort of collaboration with neighbors,
but again the best chance for any shower activity will be during the
peak heating time periods of the afternoons. Highs over this
period will remain in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
Brief shower in vicinity of KFWA to move north of
airfield/dissipate by 00 UTC issuance. Mid level shortwave near
Tennessee/Kentucky border and associated inverted surface trough
to lift northward into Indiana overnight. Preceding low level
theta-e plume/surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s lend
boundary layer saturation with low level stratus/stratocumulus
forming near sunrise throughout northern Indiana. As
probabilistic HRRR guidance quite low with respect to IFR
occurrence, have opted for fuel/alternate criteria for morning
hours. Partial mixout into higher end MVFR dominant expected by
late morning/midday with weakly forced/diurnally driven convection
possible Monday afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
827 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
East and west coast seabreezes have merged near the I-75 corridor
this evening as HRRR model has indicated. Storms will produce
locally heavy rainfall along with strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning in some locations from near Ocala to Gainesville...Lake
City...and Lake Butler. The storms will move north into parts of
se Ga before weakening and dissipating around midnight. Expect a
repeat on Monday with seabreezes merging over the interior late
day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [703 PM EDT]...
.Short Term.../through Tuesday/...
Surface high pressure will be east northeast of the region this
period. The prevailing flow around this high will be from the
southeast across the region, with the flow light enough to allow
the east coast and gulf coast sea breezes the ability to move
inland each afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms across SE GA have been driven by short
wave energy lifting north across area, in addition to diurnal
instability.
The east coast sea breeze is expected to move well
inland this afternoon, where it will converge with the gulf coast
sea breeze. This convergence, combined with upper short wave
energy, and diurnal instability will yield a band of convection
late this afternoon and evening, generally along the I75 corridor.
Due to expected slow movement of cells and potential for training
of heavy rain, isolated flooding potential will exist this
afternoon and evening. Inland convective activity could linger
into the night.
For Monday, upper energy will move north across area through early
afternoon helping to initiate showers and storms. Later in the day,
the convergence of the east coast and gulf coast sea breezes will
drive convective chances over inland areas.
Drier air will advect into region in the lower and mid levels on
Tuesday, which will limit precipitation potential. Inland
convection, due to sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability
can not be ruled out, but the drier air will limit the coverage to
isolated to scattered.
Temperatures will trend near normal this period.
.Long Term.../Tuesday night through Sunday/...
Surface high pressure will remain to the east through Thursday. The
high will sink to the southeast Thursday night through Friday, as a
cold front moves into the southeastern US. Fairly dry airmass in
place through Friday, but sea breeze convergence and diurnal
instability will yield daily afternoon chances for a few showers and
storms, mainly inland.
This boundary is expected to stall across the area over the weekend,
with an increase in convective coverage expected.
A slow warming trend anticipated this period, with readings
increasing to above seasonal averages.
.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Tuesday]
Showers and storms over inland areas will affect GNV between 00z-
04z with TEMPO IFR cigs/vsbys as seabreezes merge. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions with TAF sites near the east coast remaining
rain free tonight. For Monday there will be a chance of thunderstorms
near the east coast 16z-20z Monday afternoon and at GNV after 20z
as the seabreezes move inland and again merge over the interior.
.Marine...
High pressure will be east northeast of the region through Thursday.
The high will move to the southeast Thursday night into Friday, as a
cold front moves into the southeastern US. This boundary is expected
to stall over the region over the upcoming weekend.
Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Monday
NE FL: High Today. Moderate to High Monday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 87 70 88 69 / 60 70 40 20 10
SSI 77 83 74 83 74 / 10 20 10 10 0
JAX 75 89 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 10 0
SGJ 76 86 73 85 72 / 10 20 0 0 0
GNV 73 90 70 91 69 / 60 20 20 20 10
OCF 73 91 70 92 70 / 50 20 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Increased PoPs further s into the PB.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Radar shows slowly expanding coverage of high based -SHRA across
sw parts of SE NM and the wrn PB. Meanwhile farther n TSRA are
increasing in assocn with colliding outflow and dryline, and
recently a 56 mph gusts was reported at Tatum as a cell moved
across. HRRR still supportive of storms moving across the nrn tier
of the CWFA thru around 08Z, a severe wind gusts or 2 cannot be
ruled out.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Only concerns this forecast is low probability of TSRA to impact
CNM/HOB/INK/MAF. Some high resolution models indicate convective
potential thru about 04z/Mon with outflow resulting in wind shifts
at above mentioned sites. For now we have omitted from the
forecast due to low probability. Otherwise winds will turn back
to se and even nw by tmw AM at PEQ/FST, but 10kts or less.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Summer has officially arrived, temperatures this afternoon will
sit in the mid 90s to low 100s in the Rio Grande and Pecos River
Valley. Tonight`s low temps will hoover in the 70s across the
region. An upper lvl low centered over OK has brought NNW upper
lvl flow into the area transporting a short wave into CO/NM. The
aforementioned short wave will chug into Lubbock`s area tonight
possibly clipping Scurry County early Mon morning. The MCS is
likely to keep precip north east of the CWA. SPC has the NE
Permian Basin in a marginal this evening and tonight for hail and
wind. An upper lvl ridge will move overhead Tue brining our first
100 degree temps this year. The dryline Tue will push farther
eastward bring west downsloping winds supporting temperature
increases. Upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead
supporting multiple days of triple digit heat. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain due to day time
heating and orographic lifting throughout the week. A lack of
shear will keep storms sub-severe but there could be dry lightning
and gusty erratic winds. The ridge will strength Wed/Thu making
those the warmest days. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal
Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will
remain over the Southern Plains. A secondary trough likely
flatten the ridge Sat bringing temps back down to near normal.
Rain chances diminish in the extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 70 94 70 100 / 20 10 0 0
Carlsbad 69 101 68 102 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 72 104 73 102 / 10 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 73 103 71 103 / 10 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 69 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 65 97 66 101 / 20 10 0 0
Marfa 62 95 59 97 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 70 99 70 102 / 20 0 0 0
Odessa 70 99 71 102 / 20 0 0 0
Wink 70 104 68 105 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
846 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
A line of slow moving convection is skirting Eastern Arkansas at
this time. The latest HRRR shows it might clip more of the area as
the evening progresses. Otherwise, the rest of the CWA looks
tranquil for the remainder of the night. As a result, raised POPS
for Eastern Arkansas and reduced POPS elsewhere. New 00Z run of
the HRRR shows another round of convection moving into Eastern
Arkansas by the late morning hours tomorrow. The convection will
move east across the rest of the CWA in the afternoon while
additional convection develops with peak heating.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cut-off upper level low over
Eastern Oklahoma. Shortwaves rotating around this upper level low
are providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms across
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends
indicate rain showers have been most prevalent along the MS/AL
border and across Central and Western Arkansas with lesser
coverage near the Mississippi River.
Short term Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate
ongoing showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish in
coverage by this evening as afternoon heating is lost and overall
shear remains very weak at best. Rain chances were lowered to
scattered coverage but may need to be lowered to isolated if
current trends persist.
Otherwise, the aforementioned cut-off upper level low will move
into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday and become more of
an open wave trough towards Wednesday. This will result in
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms with the best
coverage occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours
when the best instability will be realized in a very weak shear
environment.
Long term models suggest the upper level ridge axis over the
Southern Plains will gradually build into the Lower Mississippi
Valley later this week into the upcoming weekend. However, it
appears the Mid-South will initially be on the eastern periphery
of the trough axis and shower and thunderstorm chances may persist
through the first half of next weekend. Nonetheless, temperatures
will remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s
to lower 70s.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
Best chance for SHRAs/TSRAs in the short term will be at KJBR.
Convection developing over SE AR should move through the KJBR
area this evening staying mainly west of the MS River. Elsw
expect MVFR conds this evening with little precip. Overnight into
Monday morning expect cigs to lower to IFR. SHRA/TSRA coverage
will increase due to surface heating Monday afternoon. Cigs will
lift to VFR by mid afternoon. Winds around 10 kts from SSE/S
through the period.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1055 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Current radar imagery shows isolated-to-scattered showers and
storms located over Lake and Orange counties which have developed
from outflow from showers/storms to the west/southwest. Goes-16
satellite imagery shows scattered to broken clouds across the
region. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with
dew-points in the low 70s. I waited for this evening`s update to
see how precipitation would develop across east-central Florida as
the HRRR has suggested precipitation would develop late into the
night and has actually done a pretty decent job of handeling the
setup this evening. Outflows from showers/storms upstream have
continued to develop late into this evening which has triggered
showers with embedded thunderstorms to develop over the far
western portions of the County Warning Area. With that said, I
have adjusted PoPs upwards across Lake and Orange counties through
the next several hours. However, I expect precipitation to
decrease in coverage with the area drying out by the early
morning hours. Temperatures are on track to drop into the low to
mid 70s overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect mostly VFR conditions throughout the TAF period outside of
any showers or thunderstorms that may develop - mainly at KLEE. Cloud
coverage is expected to decrease through the forecast period as
high pressure continues to influence the region. Winds will
lighten overnight and pick-up during the afternoon hours from the
southeast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021/
.DISCUSSION...
Through Tonight...Late morning Cape sounding shows noticeable dry
air in the mid levels and this limiting coverage of showers and
storms compared to previous days. However, some increase in
coverage should occur through this evening as the east coast sea
breeze and assocd outflows push farther inland with interaction
between the larger lake breezes and ultimately he west coast sea
breeze. The west coast sea breeze is much slower to push inland so
the collision should occur west of Lake county toward sunset. Hi
res models indicate some slight push back to the E/NE across Lake
county after sunset so have kept 40-50 percent PoPs there this
evening. Convection will gradually diminish around or shortly
after midnight. The onshore flow will hold min temps to the upper
70s along the immediate coast and low to mid 70s inland.
Monday-Thursday (previous)...The Atlantic low level ridge axis
will set up across north FL before slipping back southward late
week. Meanwhile, 500mb ridging builds in overhead, as a low over
the southern plains drifts northward into the Midwest. Locally,
winds becoming gradually more easterly Monday into Tuesday. Then,
continuing Wednesday, before returning to southeasterly on
Thursday as the axis begins to shift southward again. Onshore flow
will filter in pockets of drier air, with PWATs falling to around
1.5-1.7", though at times below 1.5". Combined with subsidence
aloft from the building 500mb ridge, expecting a reprieve from the
high coverage convective pattern seen last week. PoPs each
afternoon remaining around 20% or less, with the greatest chances
occurring over the interior during the afternoon due to boundary
collisions. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, by dry
air should greatly inhibit vertical development.
Temperatures remaining near to slightly above seasonal normals, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.
Friday-Saturday (previous)...The aforementioned ridge axis will
progress southward into the weekend, as a trough pushes through
the Southeast. Have maintained slight chance wording on Friday due
to uncertainty. However, moisture values do look to increase into
the weekend, as winds veer southerly ahead of the trough. For
now, have PoPs around 20% on Friday, then up to 30% on Saturday.
Temperatures increasing slightly, possibly reaching the mid-90s
across portions of the interior, with low 90s elsewhere, even
along the coast. Lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
The Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain just north of the
waters through Wednesday, producing an E/SE wind flow. Pressure
gradient will support 10-15 knots with some slight enhancement
each afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze. There will be
a noticeable wind chop with combined seas 3 to 4 feet so boating
conditions will be less than ideal but no headlines expected.
As the ridge axis slips back southward, wind flow will veer SE Thu
and S/SW Fri. Airmass will remain fairly dry so only isolated
showers are expected through mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 88 73 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 74 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 20
MLB 76 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 75 88 73 87 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 75 93 73 91 / 40 20 10 20
SFB 75 92 73 91 / 20 10 10 20
ORL 76 92 74 91 / 20 10 10 20
FPR 75 88 72 87 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Fehling/Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the Mid Atlantic into the Great lakes and a trough into the Pacific
Northwest resulting in southwest flow from the northern plains into
Northern Ontario. A vigorous shortwave trough was located over
southern Manitoba. At the surface, low pressure was located over far
northwest Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
northwest corner of Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Breezy
southwest winds gusting to 25 mph prevailed ahead of the front
through the Upper Mississippi Valley into Upper Michigan. Temps into
the lower 90s with dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s have dropped
RH into the 30-35 pct range over the west half where the Red Flag
Warning remains in effect. Vis loop showed only few flat cu over
Upper Michigan with strong capping over the area.
Tonight, expect another warm night with continued sw flow and low
level mixing. Min temps will only fall into the mid and upper 60s
with downslope winds keeping readings in the lower and mid 70s near
Lake Superior. With only weak dynamic support and the relatively
warm/dry mid levels ahead of the front, any shra/tsra that develop
over MN are expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching
Upper Michigan.
Monday, the front will continue to sag into the area as the shrtwv
moves from Hudson Bay to northern Quebec. There may be some
showers developing near the front by late morning. However, enough
moisture pooling near the front even with weak low level conv
should be enough to support sct shra/tsra after heating boosts
MLCAPE values into the 1k-2k J/Kg range. Relatively weak shear,
especially over the south half will favor pulse like storms with
the potential for some small hail and strong wind gusts. Lake
breezes over the north will limit highs to the upper 70s and lower
80s while readings again near 90 are possible over the south.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021
Overall long term period will be dominated by the slow progression
of an upper level ridge and positive height anomaly eastward through
the Upper Great Lakes. This will leave our region at the mercy of
any ridge rollers riding the top the ridge, dinural driven
convection and in a period of continued above normal temperatures.
Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty similar. Upper level ridging will
remove any strong synoptic forcing over the region, so expecting the
weak gradient winds to allow for lake breezes to push inland each
afternoon. As 850mb temps remain near 17-18C, above normal daytime
temps are expected. Generally expecting inland areas to reach the
mid-upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and mid-80s Wednesday. By the
lakeshores, lake breezes will make it difficult to climb out of the
70s. There will be some convective potential mainly west and
central, particularly in the afternoons as a weak shortwave could
pass through. Overall with weak CIN to overcome, weak shortwave
forcing and absent deep shear, dinural heating will result in
steepening low level lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE to around
1500j/kg. The result could be some pulsey type convection developing
by afternoon. Best areas for longer lived convection looks to be in
proximity to the lake breeze boundaries, where enhanced convergence
could support some longer lived showers or thunderstorms. Severe
thunderstorm potential looks minimal. PWATs near 1.6 inches will
allow for heavy downpour potential in any thunderstorm that develop
though.
Early week overnight periods also look similar. With the warmer
airmass lingering over the region, lows should fall into the low 60s
to upper 50s. Lingering shower or thunderstorm activity from any
daytime development could persist into the early evening hours before
losing its steam.
Another shortwave with more synoptic forcing potential looks to dip
southeast into the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Deep layer shear
looks to be a little higher as the surface boundary moves through,
but its still a little early to pinpoint where the best forcing will
be. For now, will maintain the chance pops and chance thunder from
the previous forecast. Daytime temperatures in the later half of the
week and into the weekend look to still be warm, but do follow a
slow downward progression. GEFS 850mb mean temps start out around
16C but `cool` off to 13C by Saturday and Sunday. The same solutions
are supported by the EPS and GEPS. Overall this looks like temps
this weekend topping out near 80F in the warm spots and near 70 or
in the 70s by the lakeshores.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021
With relatively dry low levels persisting, VFR conditions are
expected thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Expect LLWS to
develop at all terminals tonight as low-level jet translates across
the area in advance of a weakening cold front. That front may
generate isold to sct aftn shra/tsra on Mon across the interior of
Upper MI. KSAW has the best chc of seeing some shra in the vcnty.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2021
South winds to 25 knots will continue tonight. However, very stable
conditions with the cold water will limit the potential for stronger
winds near the lake surface. Expect wind speeds less than 20 knots
through the rest of the forecast period. Fog may become an issue
early this week if significant rain develops which does not look
likely at this time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
MIZ002>005-009>011-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
453 PM MST Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A slight cooling trend starting today will see temperatures cool
a few degrees each day through early week with below normal highs
by Tuesday. The isolated afternoon mountain showers and storms
seen the past several days will mostly shift into New Mexico and
be replaced with drier conditions that will last this week and
into next weekend. A gradual warming trend for the latter half of
the week will see temperatures climb back to above normal by next
weekend.
&&
The large scale pattern depicts a NE PAC trough axis moving into the
NW US coast, with a small cut-off low positioned offshore/W of N
Baja. The RAP and Mesoscale analysis showed a ridge axis from the S
AZ-NM border northeast to CO. A weak, dry H5 trough axis and vort
max was near the Lower Colorado River-SW-Cent AZ with fairly weak S
flow aloft. WV imagery showed an area of elevated moisture ahead of
the offshore Baja low approaching S CA/N Baja with dry air over S-
Cent AZ. Midday METSAT imagery depicted the clear to mostly clear
skies being observed across the area. The weak troughing aloft will
result in slightly cooler above normal highs today as Phoenix heads
for a high of 105 degrees, a few degrees cooler than yesterday`s
108 degrees.
The models are in good agreement on ejecting the offshore UL Baja
low NE across S CA and NW AZ from tomorrow into Tuesday morning. At
the same time a longwave trough further N digs across the offshore W
Coast area and the ridge amplifies over the Plains. The shortwave is
relatively dry as fairly modest PW are held in check across the
region during the early week, although a swath of high clouds in
advance of the low should cross the area tomorrow along with some
virga to help assist in the second day of the cooling trend. Some
very breezy/gusty conditions will also spread E across SE CA Mon
afternoon and evening including very pronounced sundowner winds
in Imperial Cty along with a chance of patchy lofted blowing dust
and fire weather concerns.
On Tuesday the cooling trend culminates with dry SW flow aloft E
of the EPAC offshore trough. Below normal highs on Tue will range
from the upper 90s to 100 for Phoenix and the lower deserts, and
the mid to upper 90s out west.
For Wed the Clusters analysis favors a fairly stagnant amplified
pattern with dry SW flow aloft continuing E of the offshore trough,
and the high pressure anomaly strengthens over the E Cent Plains.
Then late in the week and the weekend Clusters favor slight
variations on a somewhat less amplified pattern with the offshore
low filling and retrograding and the E ridge flattening although
while its SW flank shifts more towards/into the S-Rockies or
Desert SW. The possible ensuing warming trend could see
temperatures back to normal late this week and above normal by the
weekend.
There is still some uncertainty on the position and
orientation of the large scale pattern for this period along with
some associated model spread in late week temperatures. Although
several degrees above normal and a return to moderate heat risk
by the weekend is still favored.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2350Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Southwesterly flow this evening will subside before winds shift
to easterly around midnight. For Monday, mid and high clouds will
increase ahead of a weak low pressure system. No rain is expected,
however isolated virga could produce localized, erratic winds.
Otherwise, breezy conditions are likely again during the afternoon
with southwesterly gusts up to 15-20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Breezy conditions will subside later this evening, but will
redevelop again Monday afternoon with gusts as high as 25-30 kt at
KIPL. Somewhat weaker winds are anticipated at KBLH. Winds will
also generally retain a southerly component through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
No significant changes to the forecast...Winds will relax somewhat
during the middle and end of the week with conditions becoming
more typical for mid June. Regardless, fuels will remain very dry
as Max temps will favor near normal through Fri and then increase
to above normal for the weekend. Afternoon wind gusts 15-25 mph
will be common resulting in a slightly elevated fire danger
throughout the week. Min RH will stay in the single digits while
overnight recovery remains poor to fair and only in the 10-35%
range.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sawtelle
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle/AD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
611 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
Activity has decreased near the Spring Burn Scar so have cancelled
the Flash Flood Watch. Will continue to see thunderstorms
propagate eastward across the plains overnight well to the east.
-KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
Main Concerns:
1) Spring burn scar flash flood potential this evening
Currently...Widespread convection and mostly cloudy skies from
essentially the I-25 Corridor and westward as of 230 PM, with some
threats to area burn scars as well. Meanwhile, the far eastern
plains remain sunny. Temps have warmed into the 80s to around 90F
for the plains, and into the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high
valleys.
Tonight and tomorrow...As was expected, a good amount of convection
fired over the higher terrain by midday and has provided for pcpn
and small hail along the eastern mts and westward. There has been
some spillover across El Paso County, but for the most part the I-25
Corridor south of El Paso County has been clear so far. Models are
continuing to show that these storms will eventually push off the
mts and head east across the plains tonight, coming to an end right
around 11 PM or midnight. So far, have not seen this movement as
storms have remained hugging the mts, and in fact were somewhat
training just north of the Springs burn scar. Because of this
training effect, had to hoist a Flash Flood Watch for that area.
Given the amount of rain the Spring scar has received yesterday, it
will likely not take much more in a short period of time. Main
threats through this evening for the plains will be wind gusts to 50
mph, brief periods of heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning and
small hail. Mostly clear skies overnight, then less of a threat for
convection tomorrow as the upper ridge tries to push back into the
region. There is some CAPE to work with along the eastern border,
but shear and dynamics are minimal so do not see convection
beginning until 2 or 3 pm, and being very isolated.
Plan on somewhat mild overnight low temps tonight, with readings in
the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.
Monday looks like it will be another hot one, with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains. Moore
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...Evening thunderstorms will be possible over the plains on Monday,
a slight chance a few of these storms could become severe. Afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will be possible over the central and
eastern plains on Saturday and a slight chance on Sunday as well,
with some storms being possibly severe on Saturday...
Monday evening...
An U/L cut off low is going to be absorbed into the trough upstream
and help to add some moisture and instability later in the evening
on Monday. Some isolated thunderstorms that have developed earlier
in the day over the mountains will move across the plains throughout
the evening and there is a chance that some of these could become
severe as they move over the far eastern plains as they move into a
more unstable environment, with MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg near
the Kansas Border. This is primarily skinny CAPE, therefore the main
threat with these storms will be large hail and strong gusty outflow
winds. HRRR is still showing the possible development af an MCS over
eastern Las Animas County and then moving into Baca County...there
has been some consistency with the timing of this developing right
around 00Z. HRRR is also showing in the latest model run, another
MCS developing around 02Z over southeastern El Paso County and
northeastern Pueblo County, and then propagating down to the
southeast over Crowley, Bent, Otero, and Kiowa counties. The NAM
Nest is picking up on the MCS over Las Animas County as well,
although later around 02Z, and by then has all of the convection
having already weaken and moved out of the Palmer Divide area. The
models do tend to agree with all of the convection winding down by
06Z as daytime heating diminishes, and CINH values are below
-200 J/kg. After this time, clearing will continue and lows will
only fall to the mid 50s to low 60s over the plains, and generally
40s for all other locations above 8000 ft and in the San Luis
Valley.
Tuesday through Saturday...
Ridging is going to continue to establish itself over the central
plains as the long wave troughing remains over the northwestern
region of the US, there will only be some minor perturbations in the
pattern as some of major and minor shortwaves transition mainly to
the north of Colorado. There is going to be one major shortwave
propagating to the north and eventually over the northern plains
that could have a frontal boundary with it extending down and nearly
into the CWA on Thursday, which could allow for some convection to
initiate along the boundary over the far northeastern plains, mainly
Kiowa County later in the evening. There could also be a dry line
setting up for Saturday during the afternoon as there will be
continued dry southwesterly winds at the surface and some mid level
flow of moisture upstream, as well as an increased southerly flow
with more moisture and high dewpoints ahead of this over the eastern
plains. All of these could set up a scenario for a potential severe
weather evening over the central and eastern plains for Saturday.
The ECMWF model also hints at possible thunderstorms over much of
the CWA for Sunday as well, although the GFS has a drier run,
showing no precipitation for Sunday. With the amplified ridge
overhead throughout the next week, coupled with adiabatically
warming downsloping winds out of the southwest, expect that
temperatures are going to get even slightly warmer over the next few
days with very hot temperatures for maximums over much of the CWA,
especially over the plains. Some areas could experience high
temperatures over 100 degrees in the Lower Arkansas River Valley on
Tuesday, with record highs possible in certain locations. There will
only be a slight cooldown going into the weekend, although
temperatures for the plains will still be in the low 90s and mid 80s
for the San Luis Valley. -Steward
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021
General northerly flow aloft will push convection to the south
through early evening. Focus for storms will gradually shift from
the mts to the plains through the evening where the greatest
available moisture lies. Convection will diminish by 05z, with
mostly clear skies overnight.
KALS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. VCTS
through roughly 02z with winds gusting up to around 30 kts.
KCOS and KPUB: Overall, VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs.
However, convection over the higher terrain will affect both sites
with VCTS. Forecast of TSRA with variable gusty outflow winds and
vsby restriction until 03z, with intermittent MVFR conditions.
Improving conditions from 03z onward.
Less convective activity forecast for tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MOORE