Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
818 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Appears last of the stronger convection will be ending over the
next hour as storms attempt to move into a more hostile and
strongly capped environment over the plains. One brief severe
storm just south of Castle Rock produced about an inch of rain,
and one 1" hail report. Rest of the hail was smaller. Heavy rain
threat in the burn areas ended a couple hours ago with very little
convection lingering in the mountains. The last of the plains
convection mainly from Denver south/southeast should be ending
around 10-11 pm or so.
Looks like a little more convection should occur on Sunday. The
mid level moisture plume shifts eastward across the state and we
will destabilize sufficiently for scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. They may make it as far east as the eastern
Colorado border by Sunday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Tonight into Sunday upper ridge nosing in to Colorado from the
southwest, with the main branch of the westerlies across the
northern tier of states. A shortwave trough will move across
Montana during the short term period.
Showers and thunderstorms in the mountains will dissipate through
the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Still a chance for
an isolated storm to move out onto the plains but not likely to
make it past I-25. HRRR is more bullish and did very well with
today`s storm initiation and placement so can`t ignore it.
Potential for gusty downburst winds with the inverted V sounding
and dry in the low levels. Also a period of enhanced wind on the
western plains this evening as a weak 700 mb wave moves through.
Mild temperatures tonight, then more of the same on Sunday.
Lingering moisture and warm temperatures will generate afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered coverage again, and mainly in
the mountains. Model soundings show inverted V profile with
considerable dry air below about 600 mb. This will limit rainfall
amounts, and produce some gusty winds as any storms that do
develop collapse.
Will lean on bias corrected guidance for temps in this period,
now that we`re in a stable pattern it should perform well.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Some showers and storms may linger into the evening hours on
Sunday but they will diminish a couple hours after sunset as the
instability decreases. The area with the best chance of rain
Sunday evening will be the eastern plains.
Our forecast area will mostly be under a ridge that persists
across the high plains throughout the long term period. A longwave
trough will be positioned over the West Coast and a couple
shortwaves may round the base of this trough and influence the
weather in our CWA as they move near Colorado. Most days will see
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms although
Wednesday looks dry. These storms should be on the weaker side
and short-lived. The threat for severe weather will be minimal
although some strong, gusty winds will be possible due to the
warm, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer. The warm and dry
southwesterly flow aloft will result in above normal temperatures
for the entire long-term period. Denver may see a stretch of 90
degree highs with a threat of upper 90s by Thursday as
southwesterly, downslope flow increases. One thing the shortwaves
may do is to increase the winds in the mountains and mountain
valleys. There could be elevated fire danger in the mountain
valleys Tuesday and Thursday due to the increased winds and the
low relative humidity.
After a weak cold front passes through Thursday night, upslope
flow looks to increase on Friday and Saturday. Depending on the
positioning of shortwaves aloft, the increased upslope flow may
allow for better moisture and shear over the area and potentially
stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 818 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Scattered storms mainly south of KDEN will be ending by 04Z-05Z.
Strong south/southwesterly outflow winds gusting to around 25-35
knots should dominate through that time, but still a low potential
for variable wind gusts from isolated storms. Then winds will
settle down to typical and lighter south/southwest winds around 10
knots by 06Z. Look for scattered thunderstorms again Sunday
afternoon after 21Z. These storms will be relatively high based so
main concern will be gusty and variable outflow winds to around
35 knots but some thunder as well. TEMPO for winds seems a good
bet so we`ll keep that in the TAFs.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
A limited threat for burn area flash flooding again Sunday
afternoon/early evening. Coverage will be scattered, however
storms will be slow moving. Any that form in a burn area perimeter
would have the potential to produce flooding in similar threat to
today over generally small, local drainage basins.
The overall pattern in the extended will be warm with limited
moisture in the region. The flood threat should be on the lower
side but can`t be completely ruled out.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch/Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
647 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Increased PoPs along the I-25 Corridor in Platte County early this
evening as storms look to be dropping off the Laramie Range and
moving east. Expected to be a quick decrease in aerial coverage as
they move east as no other lifting besides outflow boundaries.
Will continue to monitor. Updates sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Latest mosaic radar scan from KCYS, KRIW, KUDX, and KFTG capturing
pockets of showers and thunderstorms with higher lighting activity
in cells along the CO Front Range in Larimer County and another up
in Weston County, WY by Upton. Some showers are present across
portions of Carbon County and southwestern Albany County. Overall
shear profile remains lackluster for much in upscale growth for
severe concerns though some gusty winds and maybe small hail under
half an inch may be possible. Concern for the afternoon remains
the progression of cold front and lack of motion of storms ahead
of the boundary. As in recent radar loops, storm motion has been
minimal increasing potential for very localized ponding or
flooding that will warrant monitoring until upper level flow
steers storms and provides motion into the high plains. Recent
HRRR solutions have trended with lingering late night convection
that given low potential for training over sites. Overall QPF
amounts fairly low given fairly dry near the surface but continued
decent PW values of over half an inch remains.
Trended daytime highs again from initial forecast as highs at 1 PM
in places had exceeded forecast. A few sites in the NE Panhandle
have a decent chance to meet or exceed records.
Ridge expected to break down with the frontal boundary on our
doorstep late tonight with some areas being behind the front by 6
AM Sunday especially our northern forecast area. Daytime highs
will be a touch cooler behind the front but still trending above-
normal for time of year. Lower chances of showers and
thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday mainly in the afternoon
and evening time frames but overall convective support lacking
despite CAPE values between 500 to 1000 J/kg. Better chance for
brief strong storms on Monday versus Sunday with small hail and
gusty winds possible. Daytime highs Monday reaching back into the
90s along and north of the North Platte River Valley from Lisco,
NE northwest towards Douglas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Long range guidance continues to suggest a fairly consistent pattern
headed into next week with southwest flow aloft and above average
temperatures. H7 temperatures look to remain around 15C throughout
much of the week as GEFS envelope shows narrow spread through
Thursday. This will result in above average temperatures across much
of the CWA as afternoon high reach the 80s and low 90s most of next
week. This extended period of warmer temperatures will also be a
concern for fire weather as afternoon RHs will drop into the teens,
possibly single digits west of the Laramie Range.
Along with the southwesterly flow aloft, a few passing shortwaves
could provide opportunity for precipitation in the area. Widespread
precipitation is not likely, however isolated thunderstorms may
develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. Last few GFS runs
continues to weaken Tuesday`s passing shortwave, but 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE looks to be available east of the Laramie Range. Shear
profiles look to be relatively weak around 25 kts and should be
strongest near the mountains and closer to the passing impulse.
Again, shear profiles will be marginal Thursday with the best
forcing remaining farther north where height falls will be greater.
However, can`t rule out isolated storm development across the
Nebraska Panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Another hour or two of VCTS around KRWL...KLAR and KCYS before
storms begin to dissipate. VFR conditions otherwise. More of the
same for Sunday afternoon...with isolated to widely scattered TS
around our southeast Wyoming airports.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Pockets of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and into the early work week as above-
normal temperatures into the 80s and 90s are expected for many.
Min RH values will trend below 15 percent west of the Laramie
Range with upper teens and 20 values eastward. Fuels remain in
green up so fire weather headlines are not expected.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...WM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Now through Sunday Night/
Regional radar imagery has blossomed with convection over the last
1-2 hours coinciding with peak afternoon heating. The 00Z Fort
Worth sounding indicates an uncapped and unstable environment
which will continue to support additional convection for another
few hours. Latest RAP objective analysis also shows an axis of low
level convergence extending from around Stephenville through the
Metroplex and northeast into Southern Oklahoma. All of this points
to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms (developing
along the outflow of dying storms) through the evening before
activity diminishes with loss of heating. Heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning will be the main threats, although a strong
wind gust can`t be ruled out.
Overnight, after this evening`s activity diminishes, we should
remain fairly quiet although it`s not out of the question that a
few isolated showers develop well after midnight. The slow moving
upper low will continue to pivot through North Texas on Sunday.
Similar to the last few days, afternoon heating and an uncapped
environment should support scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely
to develop well off to our northwest tomorrow afternoon as well
and these may move with the northwest flow along the back side of
the upper trough into the region overnight tomorrow night. We`ll
continue to refine this part of the forecast through tomorrow, but
we`ll continue with fairly high rain chances Sunday night.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/
/Sunday Night Onward/
The potential for a complex of thunderstorms to impact the area
Sunday night into Monday morning has increased. A departing upper
level low, coupled with an approaching shortwave will induce
strong warm-air advection into a region with modest amounts of
instability. Isentropic ascent analysis suggest a rapid increase
in pressure advection across northwestern portions of North Texas
shortly after midnight. Instability values in excess of 2000 J/kg
are likely to be in place, likely leading to a quick development
of convection. As the convection develops a cold pool, a
strengthening low-level jet may enhance ascent, leading a line of
storms gradually moving south/southeast through the early Monday
morning hours.
The main concern with the overnight convection will be the
potential for strong to damaging winds as well as heavy
precipitation. Precipitable water values over 1.5" are likely to
be in place, and if the line of storms remains fairly slow moving
or there is training taking place, a quick 2-3 inches of rain will
be possible. Those higher end amounts are likely to be isolated
and confidence remains too low at this time to pinpoint exact
location. Given the expected origination of the complex of storms
and direction of the low-level jet, the most likely location would
be somewhere west of Interstate 35.
Monday`s forecast will be heavily dependent on what occurs Sunday
night. If an MCV develops and moves overhead, it`s possible we
continue to see scattered convection through the afternoon hours.
If this is the case, increased cloud cover should help keep
daytime temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 80s.
As we go into Tuesday, synoptic scale subsidence will likely be
on the rise as an upper ridge strengthens across West Texas. This
will likely keep areas west of I-35 dry through the rest of the
week. Subtle disturbances will be on the periphery of the area of
higher pressure, potentially firing off scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday east of I-35. With
dry and sunny conditions mid-week, a few locations west of US-281
may reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values near the
triple digits. Heat index values elsewhere are likely to remain
between 90-95 degrees.
As we approach next weekend, the upper ridge to our west will
begin to break down. Whether we transition to northwesterly flow
aloft remains a bit uncertain given a few of the ensemble members
want to bring a tropical wave onshore next Sunday. Regardless of
which scenario plays out, slight rain chances will likely return
to the forecast the latter half of next weekend.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR generally prevails across the region outside of convection.
Thunderstorms are ongoing mainly to the north of the Metroplex and
to the southwest near Stephenville. We`ll continue with a VCTS at
all sites through 4Z although activity should begin to wane with
loss of daytime heating. We started the Metroplex TAFs off with a
TEMPO -TSRA, but if trends to the north continue we may pull this
early. Otherwise, a TEMPO for MVFR cigs in the morning is the only
other concern at this time. Additional scattered afternoon showers
and storms are expected on Sunday with perhaps a better chance for
organized storms late Sunday night.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 84 70 84 72 / 40 40 50 50 30
Waco 67 85 70 85 73 / 30 30 30 40 20
Paris 67 80 68 79 70 / 50 70 60 80 40
Denton 65 82 67 82 70 / 40 40 50 50 30
McKinney 67 82 69 82 71 / 50 50 50 60 30
Dallas 70 84 72 84 74 / 50 40 50 50 30
Terrell 67 83 69 82 72 / 50 50 50 60 30
Corsicana 68 84 71 84 74 / 50 50 40 60 30
Temple 66 85 70 86 72 / 20 30 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 65 83 67 83 70 / 20 20 50 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1013 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a
decaying cold front stretched out from west-central Minnesota
across Lake Superior. Thundershowers developed along the U.P.
border this morning, but have since exited across northern Lake
Michigan. It`s possible that this convection was robust enough to
disrupt lake breeze circulations which would impact storm
potential later today. Otherwise, temperatures are warming into
the middle 80s to lower 90s early this afternoon across northeast
Wisconsin. Surface based instability has increased to about 2000
j/kg across northern Wisconsin, but inhibition remains substantial
and there is little to no convective clouds present. Given the
large inhibition, confidence remains low regarding redevelopment
of thunderstorms over the U.P. later this afternoon, and high
resolution models are generally unenthusiastic about this
possibility. Will remove thunderstorm potential through 7 pm.
Thunderstorm potential and marine hazards are the main forecast
concerns in this part of the forecast.
Tonight...The most likely area for thunderstorm development will
occur over the central Upper Peninsula where convergence along
lake breezes will serve as the trigger. But given the previous
storm activity and lack of confidence as depicted in the models,
will remove thunderstorm chances for the evening. Otherwise, the
very warm airmass will remain in place and breezy southwest winds
should prevent temps from falling very fast. Lows from the middle
60s to near 70.
Sunday...Deep layer southwest flow will continue to bring in a
very warm airmass into the state. Deeper gulf moisture will be
surging northward but only reach into southern Wisconsin by late
in the day. Meanwhile a weak cold front will slide into Minnesota
by the afternoon. Neither of these features look to be in close
enough proximity for any impact on our weather. The surface flow
looks to back somewhat over Lake Michigan, which will lead to
increased onshore flow and higher waves along the NE WI shoreline
during the afternoon. Another small craft advisory/beach hazard
statement may be needed as a result starting in the afternoon.
Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today, though
could be several degrees cooler near Lake Michigan if the winds
turn onshore.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
The continued heat and various chances for showers and storms are
the main highlights from this forecast period. However, model
guidance does show signs of winds turning east sometime towards the
end of the work week which could turn the heat down a bit with less
90s occurring.
Sunday night through Tuesday...Breezy southwesterly winds will
continue through early Monday morning as the pressure gradient
decreases overnight. With the southwesterly flow continuing to pull
warmer and moist air into the area Sunday night, a mild and humid
night is forecast with low temperatures ranging from the middle 60s
to lower 70s. At the same time, a surface front, weakening with
time, will slowly move southwest from MN into northwestern WI. With
little forcing associated with this front by the time it reaches
north-central and far northeast WI Monday afternoon, do not
anticipate anything more than a few showers/storms developing along
it. In addition, diurnally driven scattered showers and storms are
possible across the entire forecast area Monday afternoon, as well
as Tuesday afternoon. With well above normal PWATs expected over the
area Monday into Tuesday, any storms would be capable of producing
brief, heavy downpours. This moisture will also result in humid
conditions on Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures in the
middle 80s to lower 90s.
Rest of the extended...A broad upper-level high pressure system will
build over the Upper Mississippi Valley into Wednesday. A few
diurnally driven showers and storms may develop over the forecast
area Wednesday afternoon due to the continued influx of moisture
from the mean southwest flow. Beyond Wednesday, models differ with
the solutions over the forecast area with any upstream systems.
However, as previously mentioned, there still appears to be some
model agreement with winds turning east sometime late next week,
which would put an end to the 90 degree days.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Low-level
wind shear will develop at the beginning of the TAF period, and
continue into early Sunday morning. Gusty southwest surface winds
will redevelop by Sunday afternoon, with gusts to 20 or 25 kts.
Low-level wind shear is expected to redevelop over north central
WI, including the RHI TAF site, by late Sunday evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1030 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening
primarily over the mountains through central Maine. Surface high
pressure will build to our south Sunday and last through
Tuesday with hot and dry conditions expected. Near record heat
is possible over this period. A cold front will approach the
region by midweek bringing thunderstorms and cooler weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1030PM UPDATE...
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast based on latest
conditions, mainly for temperature trends through the remainder
of the night. Still seeing a broad area of remnant showers
tracking from northern NH to the Midcoast with the thunderstorm
chances remaining low. Fog is possible tonight especially in
areas that get some evening rain, although extensive cloud cover
currently makes fog formation less likely.
815PM UPDATE...
Thunderstorm threat is waning as instability lessons overnight.
Remnant convective activity from Canada is moving into northern
NH and northwest Maine, likely to track east southeast toward
the Augusta and Midcoast areas as it dissipates this evening.
Cannot rule out a thunderstorm at this point, but think the odds
are much lower than earlier.
630PM UPDATE...
It seems at this point that beyond the current convective
activity exiting southern New Hampshire, additional thunderstorm
chances will hold off until what has developed in Canada makes
its way across the border later this evening. Models continue to
indicate this will survive the border crossing, though the
likelihood of severe weather seems reduced from earlier
expectations.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
We continue to monitor convection both advecting and forming
across portions of the Northeast. Surface temperatures have
risen into the lower 90s in some areas with dew points in the
lower 60s. Cu will continue to develop in the mountains where
CAPE values have jumped to 1000-1500 J/KG. Wind fields increase
as well through this evening. Will continue with the threat of
damaging winds and possibly large hail within a few of the
discrete storms or line segments. The latest HRRR suggests the
last of any leftover convection will exit off the Midcoast
region of Maine by 03Z.
Low temperatures will drop down into the 60s tonight. Have
introduced some patchy late night fog, mainly across the
interior valley locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection will continue on Sunday with H8 temperatures
reaching +16C. This will allow temperatures to climb to around
90 degrees over interior locations. Portions of southern New
Hampshire will be in the lower to mid 90s. All-time record highs
may be broken in different locations (see climate section
below). Along the coastline, a sea breeze will keep reading
cooler, generally in the upper 70s and 80s.
As a front lifts north of the region, there will be a small
chance for a shower, mainly over central and northern sections.
As the atmosphere destabilizes, there could be a stray
thunderstorm or two across the region.
It will be warm tomorrow night with a few of the larger cities
in southern New Hampshire possibly remaining above 70 degrees
for the overnight low.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Potentially record breaking heat persists into next week...
The continental weather pattern next week is ridge dominant
over the eastern CONUS with surface high pressure broadly strewn
over the northern Atlantic basin. Meanwhile troughing persists
over the Pacific northwest...and attempts to build south from
Greenland during the second half of the week. The result for New
England is continued hot and somewhat humid conditions through
at least early next week with daily max temperatures reaching
well into the 90s for most locations, perhaps approaching 100
degrees over some interior locations. Dew points expected in the
low- 60s also limit overnight cooling with lows in the 60s.
More on climatological significance below. Long range ensembles
continue to place the Sunday-Tuesday time frame as the most
favorable time period for record-breaking heat; beyond this time
frame, uncertainty increases as ridging breaks down... should
ridging persist to some degree however, expect the hot/warm
conditions to also continue to some degree. Although model
consensus exists in a cooler airmass settling over the area
during the second half of the week, I`m leaning on the warmer of
these solutions since long range models tend to over- do warm
season cold advection in ridge-dominant schemes like this.
For shower and storm chances...a mid-level ridge axis crests by
early Tuesday, which opens the door for diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. A shortwave
skirting across Quebec around that time could provide additional
support for stronger thunderstorms, but so far consensus doesn`t
bring this far enough south to provide much of an impact. The
primary feature to look to for potential showers, storms, and
(hopefully) some cooler/drier air is a cold front approaching from
the northwest around Wednesday. Depending on the type of
thermodynamic environment the Tuesday wave leaves us for
Wednesday, and the timing of the front itself, stronger dynamic
forcing from the upper levels could produce strong thunderstorms
as the front crosses on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure
builds behind this wave with cooler temperatures in the 70s and
80s and more comfortable dew points below 50 degrees which will
allow for a return of pleasant, open-window overnights. Daytime
shower chances return by the weekend; since the forecast favors
the ECMWF/EMS solutions, trended the forecast drier late in the
week since that suite of solutions keeps high pressure nearby
until the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
evening especially over northern areas. A few of the storms may
contain damaging winds and possibly large hail. There is less of
a chance of precipitation over southernmost New Hampshire.
Patchy valley fog will develop overnight with localized IFR
conditions possible for a brief period.
Conditions become VFR in all sections Sunday. There will be a
small chance for a brief showers or thunderstorm over central
and northern areas.
Long Term...Exceptions to prevailing VFR in the long range
include a chance of IFR/LIFR in early morning valley fog for
KLEB/KHIE/KCON/ KAUG and a chance of brief MVFR/IFR in SHRA/TSRA
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons/evenings for all terminals.
Wind fields will remain fairly weak an generally out of the
west, except for daily onshore components in seabreezes... and
will take on a more northwesterly clip late in the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...
As a front approaches the waters this evening, winds may gust to
near 25 kt at times. However, most areas will have conditions
below SCA thresholds. Thunderstorms are expected to form over
the land potentially tracking over the waters bringing the
potential for strong winds. Otherwise, winds and seas will
remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday night.
Long Term...Prevailing wind and wave conditions will remain
below SCA thresholds next week. High pressure positioned to the
southeast well out over the Atlantic will set up a broad
southwest flow over the waters until a cold front crosses by
mid-week which has winds backing to the northwest in its wake.
Outer water waves may touch 5 ft at times as this wave passes,
and the front itself may bring showers and storms to the waters
with potentially gusty winds. High pressure approaches the
waters late week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs possible Sunday into the beginning of the next work
week at all climate sites. Here`s a look at some of the
temperature records in jeopardy of falling.
SUNDAY, JUNE 6
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 89 in 1953 86 Low chance of breaking
CONCORD 96 in 1925 94 Low chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 85 in 1968* 87 Strong chance of breaking
MONDAY, JUNE 7
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 95 in 1999 94 Chance of breaking
CONCORD 96 in 1999 97 Good chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 92 in 1999 95 Strong chance of breaking
TUESDAY, JUNE 8
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 90 in 1999* 92 Strong chance of breaking
CONCORD 94 in 2008 93 Chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 90 in 2008 92 Strong chance of breaking
*MOST RECENT OF SEVERAL YEARS
In addition, record warm lows are likely to fall as well. The
record warm lows for each day are listed below.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SUN JUN 6 MON JUN 7 TUE JUN 8
PORTLAND 63 in 2020 63 in 1999 60 in 2014*
CONCORD 73 in 1925 69 in 1870 67 in 1871
AUGUSTA 60 in 2020* 61 in 1999 62 in 2005*
*MOST RECENT OF SEVERAL YEARS
Portland temperature records began in 1940.
Concord temperature records began in 1868.
Augusta temperature records began in 1948.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Casey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1026 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.UPDATE...
The inherited grids reflect current observations. No update
needed. The Flood Watch is still in effect until Sunday evening.
While coverage has decreased, showers and isolated thunderstorms
are still on radar and will continue overnight.
Stigger/87
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/
DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF Issuance.
AVIATION...
Sctd convection continues to form and move northward late this
aftn, with the LCH/LFT/ARA terminals likeliest to be affected
through 01Z. Otherwise, SHRA/TSRA should gradually decrease after
02Z with loss of daytime heating, with some isolated -SHRA
possible overnight. VFR conditions this evening, will trend MVFR
between 05-08Z at the LA terminals as low clouds (and possibly
patchy fog) develop. Cigs will lift and scatter after 13-15Z
Sunday, with sctd showers and storms again developing as the
region remains in a moist and unstable pattern. While timing and
coverage is somewhat uncertain, guidance indicates better coverage
near the Acadiana terminals (where moisture will be highest) so
carried PROB30 groups after 12Z, and prevailing SHRA after 18Z.
Elsewhere, carried PROB30 at BPT/LCH after 09-10Z and throughout
the day, with VC at AEX until 18Z and PROB30 thereafter. VFR is
expected to prevail outside of any convection.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Today Through Monday)...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to form into this
evening with a broad upper-level low pressure system to the
northwest slowly moving eastward. Southern parts of the area will
continue to clear out from prior storms, providing an environment
conducive for additional development with daytime heating.
However, this window will be short and after sunset chances will
decrease. Showers and thunderstorms may be in the area overnight
as they move in from other locations. Storms will be expected to
dissipate as the night progresses.
Storm development will occur during the morning hours on Sunday
near the coast as well as offshore. Models suggest a focus on
eastern parts of our area near Lafayette. The HRRR in particular
has been trending eastward with storms moving onshore. Winds will
shift from southeasterly to southerly during the late morning
hours.
Rain chances will continue into Monday but a shift from offshore
development progressing onshore to a more typical summertime
diurnal cycle for storms will be expected.
19/55
LONG TERM (Monday Through Day 8)...
Daytime showers and thunderstorms will be expected to continue
through the week as shortwave energy continues to make its way
into our area with dissipating frontal boundaries from low
pressure systems further north. This energy combined with the
onshore flow (bringing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico)
will provide an environment for shower and thunderstorm
development.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show daily rainfall accumulations
throughout the week. The QPF values for this forecast were
increased compared to WPC, most notably towards the end of the
week. Significant rainfall during the week will not be expected.
Temperatures will be closer to average as the week progresses compared
to the below average temperatures experienced this past week.
However, temperatures will still likely be a few degrees below
average due to expected cloud cover and chances for precipitation.
55
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 83 72 87 / 60 90 40 80
LCH 72 85 75 88 / 50 80 30 50
LFT 72 83 74 87 / 60 90 40 60
BPT 71 85 75 87 / 50 70 30 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
824 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.UPDATE...
An upper level low pressure system continues to be located near
the Red River Valley this evening. Scattered showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms continue to move through the Mid-South.
Meanwhile, a lull is occurring over Central Mississippi at this
time with new shower development occurring near the Southern
Mississippi/Alabama state line. Latest CAMS shows that once this
current convection lifts north, much of the overnight hours may be
tranquil. The latest HRRR is showing showers spreading back into
Northeast Mississippi by 9-10 AM CDT which may be this area of
showers that is developing near the Southern Mississippi/Alabama
state line now. Have trended POPS in this direction and made some
minor temperature adjustments. Update will be out shortly.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/
GOES-16 Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low
over Northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate
scattered to numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms
this afternoon over the Lower Mississippi Valley with the best
coverage occurring south of I-40 over North Mississippi thus far.
As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the
lower to middle 80s across many locations.
The aforementioned upper level low over Northeast Texas will
gradually move east northeast into portions of the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys into Monday then gradually become an open
wave trough through Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will persist through much of this period with the greatest
coverage occurring during the peak afternoon and early evening
hours.
Long term models indicate the mid-level trough will drift east
into Kentucky and the Tennessee Valley through late next week with
the Mid-South being under the influence of northwest flow aloft
towards next weekend. Consequently, this is expected to result in
shower and thunderstorm chances each day with best coverage
occurring during the afternoon/evening hours. Highs for the next
7 days will be mostly in the 80s with lows in the 60s to lower
70s.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
Pattern is going to be repetitive each day. Low clouds develop
late into early in the morning and gradually improve, perhaps
back to VFR, in the afternoon. SHRA coverage will wane overnight
into the early part of the day and then increase in the afternoon
and early evening with some TSRAs possible.
Light winds overnight becoming S/SSE around 8 kts during the day.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal flow through the
northern CONUS atop mid/upper level ridging from the southwest CONUS
through the central Plains to the mid Atlantic. The shrtwv
supporting shra/tsra into northern lower Michigan was sliding off to
the east while another weak shrtwv with some diminishing shra/tsra
was located over central MN. At the surface, mainly southwest flow
prevailed between a trough into the northern Plains and a ridge over
the southeast CONUS. IR/VIS satellite showed mainly clear skies
over northwest WI and the west half of Upper Michigan where
capping has suppressed cu even as temps have climbed into the
lower 90s.
Rest of today into tonight, radar/satellite along with CAMs suggest
that mainly dry weather will continue through this evening with
capping strong enough to prevent additional shra/tsra development.
Shra/tsra may develop or move into the west later this evening as
the upstream shrtwv approaches but confidence is low. Southwest
winds will be strong to maintain mixing and keep temps in the mid
60s. Increased downslope flow overnight should also result in
climbing temps near Lake Superior.
Sunday, a shrtwv lifting into Saskatchewan will result in additional
ridging into the northern Great Lakes with dry weather and increased
southwest flow of very warm air. Temps should again climb into the
lower 90s over the west half and with mixing to around 5k ft drop
dewpoints into the mid 50s. RH values into the 25-35 percent
interior west along with winds gusting to 20-30 mph should result in
critical fire weather conditions. Farther east, elevated fire
weather conditions will also exist.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 435 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2021
Warm conditions look to continue through the week as a high pressure
ridge looks to sit overhead until this upcoming weekend. However,
shortwaves and a weakening low are expected to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the area. However, any thunderstorms look to
be typical summer convection; nothing severe looks to happen. Late
next week, there is some model guidance that shows widespread
precipitation across the area.
As a front drys up and dies as it approaches us Sunday night, some
breezy winds over the area look to continue at spots. This should
bring partly cloudy conditions across the area as the Bermuda High
looks to bring enhanced ridging over the area Sunday night and
Monday. Temperatures Monday look to be slightly cooler than what is
predicted Monday as WAA from hot, dry Desert Southwest air moves
eastward. Wind gusts also look to be calmer Monday; model guidance
currently is suggesting that wind gusts will be around 20 mph at
most. RHs also look to only get down to the mid 40s across much of
the area Monday, save the Keweenaw, where guidance has hinted at
lower dewpoints due to better mixing; minimum RHs in the Keweenaw
could get as low as the lower 30s to upper 20s at spots. Therefore,
fire weather doesn`t look to concerning across the area Monday save
for the Keweenaw.
By Monday afternoon, a shortwave looks to move towards our area, and
could bring some showers and thunderstorms. These storms don`t look
to be severe as shear should be fairly minimal due to the large-
scale influence of the Bermuda High. Therefore, expect convection to
be pretty pulsey; popping up and dying-off rather quickly. As a low
move through the area Tuesday, expect similar conditions as on
Monday, with more `popcorn` convection across the area. Don`t expect
any soaking rain for most of the area Monday and Tuesday, as these
shortwaves don`t look to produce much more than scattered
convection.
Model guidance diverges by the middle of next week, so it does
become harder to predict what is expected to occur weather-wise
next. However, models do show that there could be widespread
precipitation across the area by the end of next week. Temperatures
also look to trend a little cooler throughout the later part of next
week too.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2021
With low-levels remaining relatively dry, VFR conditions will
prevail thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Sct shra/isold tsra
are currently developing across portions of central Upper MI. These
shra may pass near KSAW over the next several hrs if they persist.
For now, only VCSH mention was included in fcst. Otherwise, LLWS is
expected at all terminals overnight into early Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2021
Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 knots Sunday as a trough
approaches. However, very stable conditions will limit the
potential for stronger winds near the lake surface. Expect wind
speeds less than 25 knots through the rest of the forecast period.
With a trough through the area Fog may become an issue next week
if significant rain develops.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1005 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become established just off the southeast
Atlantic Coast for the next several days. Clockwise wind flow
around the high will bring increasing moisture into the area
from the south. This will result in more heat and humidity
through the upcoming week with a daily threat of showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1003 PM EDT Saturday...
Minor changes to overnight lows...
Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for tonight
based on the latest surface obs and trends. It will be a mild
night with low temperatures from the mid 50s in the mountains to
the mid 60s in the piedmont as high clouds spread in from the
southwest. Light winds will allow areas of fog to from in the
western river valleys, especially the Greenbrier valley of
southeast West Virginia. With deep moisture carried by the
return flow around the high center, scattered showers and storms
will develop Sunday afternoon.
Moderate confidence in the Near-Term forecast.
As of 246 PM EDT Saturday...
Summertime weather pattern evolving...
High pressure is centered overhead. This feature will drift
southeast and off the coast tonight. For the most part the
subsidence has resulted in dry near cloud free conditions.
Exception has been across the mountains where return flow on
the back side of the high has resulted in afternoon cumulus.
Isolated showers developed across the NC High Country where the
SBCAPE reached 1000 j/kg range, but dry air aloft has limited
the vertical extent, keeping most of the cloud depth below the
freezing level mitigating lightning.
Through the evening and into the overnight, expecting most areas
to remain dry. Will maintain low chance POPs for the NC
mountains and Grayson Highlands, allowing for some potential
drift into the New River Valley and NW Piedmont of NC.
Temperatures are expected to retreat quickly with the loss of
daytime heating with forecast lows mainly in the 60s, and 50s
in the colder mountain valleys.
Moist southerly flow will become more prominent Sunday and into
the first part of the upcoming week as the area of high
pressure slides off the southeast Atlantic Coast and becomes
stationary. As such expect increasing dewpoints and higher
humidity. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also ramp-up,
especially during the peak heating of the day coupled with the
maximum instability.
Temperatures Sunday will be similar to Saturday but associated
with higher dewpoints. Highs Sunday afternoon are expected to
range from near 80 in the mountains to near 90 in the foothills
and piedmont. Mountain valleys should average in the mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Saturday...
An upper low over the southern Plains will drift to the northeast
through the period. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge in the western
Atlantic will glide to the southwest. Between these two systems,
south to southwesterly flow will increase both humidity and
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. With increased temperature and
dewpoints, even without a significant synoptic or mesoscale forcing
mechanism, diurnal heating will be sufficient to create scattered
storms Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the assistance
of orographic lift, storms should start across the mountains first,
then move east into the foothills and piedmont in the evening.
Outflow boundaries may also help generate and sustain isolated
storms deep into each night.
Locations with more convection will have increased cloud cover which
will decrease the day`s insolation, and prevent temperatures from
getting too much above normal, particularly over the mountains.
Highs west of the Blue Ridge will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s
and in the east in the 80s. Overnight lows will be muggy with
temperatures in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 234 PM EDT Saturday...
The upper low is expected to move over the Ohio Valley Wednesday
while the upper level ridge drifts over the southeastern states. The
area will remain under the influence of the ridge through at least
Thursday. This will keep the majority of the storms confided to the
afternoon and evening hours. Friday and Saturday, the ridge sinks
south into the Gulf. With lower heights, storms will start firing
earlier across the mountains and linger deeper into the night across
the foothills and piedmont counties.
Through the entire period, slow large scale flow, PWATs 1.5-2"
around the area, and sufficient energy from daytime heating, some
localized areas could experience high rain rates. However, this is
unlikely to cause any widespread issues, as there will not be an
organized mesoscale system that impacts a large area. Any issues
related to rainfall will be localized.
Warmer than normal temperatures and high humidities are expected
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 737 PM EDT Saturday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms formed this afternoon with
the combination of orographic lift,heating and return flow
around the high in the Atlantic. Most of this convection will
slowly diminish with the loss of solar heating, as shown on the
HRRR and other model solutions. Light winds tonight may result
in patchy fog overnight. River valley fog may develop across
the New River and Greenbrier Valleys, with potential for a
period of IFR or LIFR at KLWB between 09-12Z Sunday. Deeper
moisture to our south in southern North Carolina will be moving
north tonight and Sunday. For Sunday, shower and thunderstorm
coverage will become more notable during the peak heating part
of the day. However, it is still too limited in nature to
include in a taf forecast. VFR is expected Sunday for most
locations, though pop up afternoon storms are possible again
mainly mountains which could briefly bring sub-VFR. Best chance
would be along/south of BLF- MTV line.
Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Any convection that develops Sunday afternoon will diminish
Sunday evening into Sunday night. Humidity builds next week with
a typical summer pattern of afternoon/evening scattered
showers/storms through Wednesday, which may bring sub- VFR, but
overall expect VFR.
Fog could also become an issue during the late nights/early
mornings at BCB/LWB and any terminals that see rain. MVFR/IFR
showers and thunderstorms look likely for Friday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
844 PM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening high pressure over the Southwest will bring cooling
through Sunday, while onshore flow maintains a marine layer and
associated clouds west of the mountains with gusty westerly winds
through and below the passes. On Monday, an upper-level disturbance
will bring scattered high clouds, a deeper marine layer, and further
cooling. Patchy drizzle is possible west of the mountains nights and
mornings through Tuesday. Cooler weather will dominate the coming
week under an upper-level trough along the West Coast. Some
warming slated for late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.EVENING UPDATE...
Gusty winds were starting to blow this evening across the
mountains and deserts. West winds gusting 35-50 MPH were seen
across the San Gorgonio Pass into northern areas of Palm Springs.
These will continue overnight and ease before sunrise. Low clouds
were starting to fill western areas of San Diego County and will
continue to fill in much of the valleys west of the mountains
through the night including much of the Inland Empire. A Catalina
Eddy will spin up over the coastal waters tonight bringing in
southerly breezes to the coast. Have added patchy drizzle for
areas west of the mountains for tonight as HRRR indicates some
very light precipitation may fall later tonight into the morning
hours on Sunday.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (AS OF 103 PM SATURDAY)...
A developing trough along the West Coast will draw a weak upper low
inland across SoCal on Monday evening. At this time, very little
moisture is forecast to accompany the low, so despite favorable
looking jet dynamics, PVA, and diurnal timing on the GFS control,
the latest SREF runs have failed to generate any chance of elevated
convection or dry lightning over the mountains. The system may be
dry in the mid-levels, but not lower in the atmosphere, where the
marine layer will be nearly saturated nights and mornings. This has
prompted some patchy drizzle in the forecast for Mon into Tue
morning. The upper low will help to enhance the onshore flow through
the passes and into the deserts as well, where gusts of 40-50 MPH
are expected in the more wind-prone areas late each day and
overnight. The onshore flow and deepening marine layer will drop
daytime highs over the next few days, pushing temperatures well
below average inland.
By Monday, daytime highs will be running from 10-15F below
average deep into the valleys and across the mountains, while the
deserts and coastal areas are just a few degrees below average. It
will be gradually warmer through the work week and into the
weekend as the trough aloft eases, allowing heights/thickness
values to rebound. The seasonal thermal gradient from the coast to
the deserts will remain however, and that will keep moderate
onshore flow intact and coastal areas seasonally cool with some
marine clouds at times.
There is a clear ensemble consensus for cooler than average weather
over SoCal much of the coming week. After that, we see more spread
as the warm ridge to the SE tries to muscle it`s way back to the NW,
bucking the West Coast trough. Given this backdrop, the various
model ensemble solutions have created a much wider temperature
forecast spread for us after next weekend. Place your bets!
&&
.AVIATION...
051930Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds will continue to push ashore
and spread up to 30 miles inland overnight. Bases will start
around 1200-1500 ft MSL and rise after 10Z closer to 1700-2000 ft
MSL. Clouds should reach areas of the IE and VCTY KONT after 11Z.
Local vis 1-3 miles where clouds and terrain intersect. Scatter
out expected 16-18Z Sunday for most areas, though clouds could
stick around the beaches through the afternoon.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
tonight. Gusty west/northwest winds will continue in through the San
Gorgonio Pass and in the lower deserts tonight, easing before
sunrise. Strongest winds will be through the passes, where gusts
to 45 knots are possible. For the lower deserts, gusts of 25-35
knots expected through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. Breezy
northwest winds will occur each afternoon and evening over the outer
waters Tuesday through Saturday, with gusts 20-25 knots expected.
&&
.BEACHES...
A long-period south swell from 190 degrees will continue to generate
surf of 3-5 feet, with some local sets to 6 feet, through Sunday
across Orange County. Highest surf will occur on south-facing
beaches. High rip current risk and dangerous swimming conditions are
expected. Surf will gradually decrease Monday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...APR