Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
823 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Not planning any major changes this evening. HRRR does show some
showers moving across the north late tnt, but am not sure where
the support is. Not much of a LLJ or moisture to work with. For
now will forego any mention of pcpn late tnt. Lowered temps a
touch given current and expected dewpoints later tnt.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Temperatures so far today have reached the mid 90s to around 100
degrees and may rise a few more. Otherwise, with the ll thermal
profile/925mb temperatures being similar on Saturday to today along
with sunshine and dry soils/drought conditions, highs should be
similar and may be a few degrees warmer. The models show a couple
weak short waves affecting the region tonight through Saturday
night. The first short wave and surface front/trough was bringing
high based showers/storms off to our northwest this afternoon. The
model forecasts with these showers/storms shows that they should
remain mainly to our north tonight. Do have some slight chances for
parts of north central sd for tonight. Otherwise, a stronger short
wave trough and surface cold front will affect our region again
Saturday night affecting mainly north central sd with scattered
showers and storms. The first surface trough moving into our cwa
tonight will dissipate on Saturday as winds turn back south and
increase into the afternoon. With dew points mixing out into the
upper 50s to the lower 60s on Saturday afternoon, heat index values
may reach 100 degrees or slightly higher for some locations and are
not expected to be widespread. Therefore, will not issue a heat
advisory at this time. Also, will cancel the fire weather watch for
west central mn as don`t expect winds to increase anymore this
afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Above average temperatures and a couple opportunities for
showers/storms are anticipated during the long term period.
Beginning Sunday morning, a shortwave will be tracking across
northern North Dakota. A trailing cold front will move through the
forecast area through the day, leading to a bit of a cool-down (80s)
across north central SD. The rest of the area remains in the mid to
low 90s. This front could trigger isolated thunderstorms across far
northeastern SD and west central MN during the afternoon, but
confidence is low given the heat/cap. This front stalls and retreats
north on Monday, leading to more heat across the whole area.
A ridge of high pressure aloft remains in place through the upcoming
work-week, leading to continued above average heat. Shortwaves
tracking up and over the ridge will provide the potential for
showers and storms on a number of occasions from Monday night
through Friday, though probabilities are fairly low. The details are
difficult to resolve at this time given the nature of these types of
set-ups. Dewpoints may climb into the mid-60s on Wednesday and
Thursday, leading to some increase in heat index values and
instability. Potential for a larger trough exists late in the week,
which would help relieve the heat.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight at all terminals.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Overall high pressure/subsidence and dry air thru the column
remain in control of the wx across Wisconsin and Michigan late
this evening. Warm front is waving just north of our state...with
a broken line of convection firing north of this boundary. Both
the latest NAM and RAP still suggest this front will drop far
enough south overnight into early Saturday to allow some of this
convection to reach into Eastern Upper Michigan. Also...low level
winds will strengthen overnight...which should aid in maintaining
some convective development southward into Eastern Upper Michigan.
Going forecast is handling this scenario generally well...and will
only need to make a few minor adjustments. Temps will stay rather
mild/warm overnight...with lows ranging from the upper 50s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 60s across Northern Lower
Michigan.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
...Mild tonight...
High impact weather potential: Nothing significant. Chance for an
isolated non-severe thunderstorm across eastern upper Michigan.
Pattern synopsis and forecast:
Central NOAM mid/upper level flow regime in the process of
"flattening out" early this afternoon as northeast troughing relaxes
and strong upper jet core punches into southern British Columbia and
northern Washington. All significant shortwave energy well removed
to our north where baroclinic axis is strengthening...with most
notable wave racing east/southeast near the central Manitoba/Ontario
border. Respectable area of surface low pressure running just ahead
of this wave, with developing warm front running southeast from it
into the northern Great Lakes. Warm air advection only further
increasing (as evident by that developing warm front), with
temperatures running several degrees above normal, with current
temperatures punching up into the 80s away from the immediate
coastal areas. Despite these warm temperatures, elevated stable
layer continues to prevent any deep moist convection...with just
some passing higher level clouds and modest high based cumulus
development.
Canadian wave will continue to race east heading through tonight,
taking surface low right along with it. Developing warm front
detaches, leaving behind subtle surface trough across the northern
Lakes. That trough axis, combined with continued moist advection and
passing of that wave, may contribute to a few much needed showers
across eastern upper Michigan late tonight.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges:
Addressing EUP shower potential and overnight temperature trends.
Details:
Will still need to be on the lookout for a rogue shower or two later
this afternoon across northeast lower Michigan with maturation of
low level convergence along Lake Huron induced lake breeze.
Otherwise, plume of elevated instability (upwards of a few hundred
joules/kg) slides across eastern upper Michigan tonight along and
north of that lingering surface trough. Increased convergence along
nose of developing low level jet (locally enhanced above Lake
Michigan stable layer) may utilize that plume of elevated cape,
perhaps kicking off a few late night showers and storms across
eastern upper Michigan. Definitely not sold on this idea just yet as
best shortwave induced forcing passes by well to the
north...supporting just low chance shower potential wording at this
time. Otherwise, dry and mild conditions will prevail, with
maintenance of gusty southwest winds supporting most areas only
dropping into the 60s by Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 411 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
...Mainly Rain Free, Hot and Humid...
High impact weather: None is expected but very high fire danger.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Whether or not to include any
pops through the period.
Slowly building heights through the period will bring hot and
moderately humid conditions to northern Michigan this weekend on
into at least early next week. The very warm conditions in
combination with dry fine fuels (due to a lack of recent rainfall)
and gusty southwest winds will lead to very high fire danger. Most
spots are expected to remain rain free through the weekend with the
exception of across eastern upper Michigan. A weak boundary in
combination with a possible lake breeze off of Lake Superior may be
enough to spark a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening. Moisture from a cutoff upper level low parked across
the central Plains will edge northward over the next few days
possibly helping to develop a few showers and perhaps storms across
northern lower Monday (time will tell on that one). Highs through
the period of well into the 80s to the low 90s. Muggy lows ranging
from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 411 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
...Hot and Humid then not as Hot with Better Rain Chances...
High impact weather potential: None is expected but likely high to
very high fire danger.
Similar setup early in the week with upper level ridging providing
more hot and humid conditions but with moisture trying to move up
from the south. This will lead to somewhat better chances for much
needed showers and thunderstorms but can`t promise that it will be
very widespread. Extended models then vary on the timing of a likely
trough and associated not as warm or humid airmass cutting into the
ridge in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. After starting off
the period with highs in the mid 80s to near 90, do think it will
cool off some with the mid 70s to low 80s more common later in the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan
TAF sites overnight thru Saturday night as subsidence and dry air
maintain control of the wx across the Western Great Lakes. SW low
level flow will strengthen overnight thru Saturday...with LLWS
impacting our area into early Saturday morning as a result.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Pressure gradient will continue to tighten up tonight through
Saturday night, across mainly Lakes Michigan and Huron. Winds will
periodically increase to advisory levels in many nearshore waters
over this time, despite strong overlake stability. These advisory
level winds are not expected to impact Whitefish Bay/St. Mary`s
attm. There are small chances for showers, with perhaps a few
thunderstorms around eastern upper Michigan late tonight into
Saturday morning, and again Saturday night.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday evening
for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 4 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
evening for MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to noon EDT Saturday for LHZ347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Light to moderate rain showers will continue over the
next couple of hours. A strike or two of lightning is possible,
but becoming more and more unlikely as sunset approaches. VFR is
expected to prevail through the TAF period across all of Deep
South Texas, with ceilings generally above 3000 feet agl. However,
can`t completely rule out intermittent MVFR ceilings overnight
tonight, especially under showers and thunderstorms. Isolated
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible again
tomorrow morning and afternoon as a upper level low over the state
begins to exit northeastward. Surface winds will remain light to
moderate out of the southeast through the period, increasing some
late Saturday morning and through the afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Isolated to scattered
convection continues to develop across the coastal sections of the
CWA this afternoon. The latest HRRR keeps the showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal counties through the rest of the
afternoon before weakening this evening. With the 500mb low across
west-central Texas moving slowly eastward tonight...low to mid level
moisture will remain high across most of south Texas tonight before
some drier air moves in from the west across the CWA Saturday. Will
keep some rain chances across deep south Texas tonight and diminish
rain chances from west to east Saturday as a result. Subsidence will
continue to increase across deep south Texas Sat night as winds
aloft veer more to the west to northwest.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): The 500 mb low that has been
contributing to all the unsettled weather across deep south Texas
will begin to move off to the northeast Sunday and Monday with
500 mb high pressure building in its wake. Thus, drier weather is
expected through the first half of the period with warmer
temperatures filtering in and highs near seasonal norms. On
Wednesday, a mid-level low will begin to encroach from the south
bringing back a slight chance for precipitation through Friday,
mainly across portions of the northern Ranchlands. Temperatures
with the increased cloud cover will fall back to just below normal
for the later part of the period.
MARINE(Tonight through Saturday night): Light southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with high pressure
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and weak high pressure across
north Texas. The pressure gradient will increase slightly across
the lower Texas coast Saturday. Winds will increase slightly from
the southeast Saturday into Sat night. Light to moderate southeast
will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sat
night.
Sunday through Thursday...A tightening pressure gradient will
increase winds and seas Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This
could lead to Small Craft Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories
across the Lower Texas Coast on these days. The pressure gradient
will then weaken on Tuesday night into Wednesday with favorable
marine conditions returning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 73 86 75 / 60 20 30 0
BROWNSVILLE 85 73 88 77 / 80 30 20 0
HARLINGEN 83 71 88 74 / 40 20 20 10
MCALLEN 84 70 90 74 / 30 20 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 75 82 78 / 50 20 30 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Aviation...67-Mejia
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
943 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Lightning diminishing and cloud tops are warming with convection
weakening across the entire area in the last hour. Have seen
gusty winds along the outflow boundary now pushing through Fargo
with a gusts between 40 and 50mph expected. Boundary will slowly
push south and weaken over the next hour or so as the surface
continues to cool and stabilize.
UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Convection developed this afternoon along the international
border as sfc temps broke records across the region with many
locations reaching above 100F. With mixing to 600mb dry inverted
V soundings depict threat of any storm to be wind as DCAPE of 1500
to 1600J/kg could be realized. Multiple reports/observations
over the past 2 hours have come in with wind gusts ranging from
45 to 55mph with the strongest storms. Line of storms now extends
from the New Rockford area to the NE to Grafton to Baudette and
will continue to slide to the east southeast. CAMs in fair
agreement with the gradual weakening of activity in a couple hours
and precip ending by midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Heat extremes and convection chances will be the main forecast
concerns.
Lot of triple digits across the Red river Valley with mid to upper
90s where it hasn`t reached the century mark yet. Cold front is
approaching the international border, with winds switching
northwest and a bit of a cool down into the lower 90s and 80s.
Winds gusting above 30 mph in many of our eastern ND sites and
even a few of the MN sites. Dew points remain in the upper 40s and
50s, and fire weather remains critical (see below discussion).
CAMs and most of the global models show a decent amount of
instability pooling along the front as it pushes into northern ND.
A bit of cumulus starting to develop near the front in the
northern Red River Valley, and there is some shower activity over
eastern MT as the ridge riding shortwave pushes into our area.
CAMs continue to break out some convection with strong UH values
between 00Z and 04Z this evening. The boundary layer is well
mixed, with low level moisture a bit lacking, so anything that
develops will be very high based. Can`t rule out some damaging
wind gusts from any convection that we get, but the HRRR at least
seems to be overdoing current convection along the front, so think
it may be a bit less coverage than CAMs indicate. Will continue to
keep POPs in as the front slowly pushes south overnight.
West to southwesterly flow aloft will continue into tomorrow, with
the front washing out and southerly winds returning to the area.
Another hot day, although perhaps not has hot as today. Some
models break out some additional QPF during the day on Saturday
but with no surface boundary or upper support am not too excited
and think better chances will be Saturday night. Another ridge
riding shortwave will move out into the region after 06Z Sunday,
pushing the surface trough and front back into our area. There
should be a decent amount of showers and thunderstorms along this
boundary, and with MU CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and 40 kts deep
layer bulk shear near the Canadian border, some scattered severe
potential can`t be ruled out.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Main challenge in the extended period relates to upper level energy
rotating around a strong thermal ridge in place over the middle of
the country.
For Sunday...a strong upper level ridge is in place over the area to
start the period. Vigorous jet with associated shortwave will
distort the upper ridge allowing for a slight cooling of the
temperatures. The frontal boundary and energy aloft will combine to
trigger some thunderstorm activity across the area early in the day
on Sunday. By Monday...the upper wave lifts northeast toward Hudson
Bay allowing the upper ridge rebound...although temperatures will
remain a little cooler to start the work week.
Monday night though Friday...a series of waves rotate around the
periphery of the ridge bringing chances again for some scattered
showers. The pattern finally shifts for the end of the period with a
front crossing the area early Friday...bringing cooler and more
seasonable temperatures. Better chances for showers and storms can
be expected with the system to end the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Thunderstorms and potential wind gusts expected over the next 3 to
6 hours for GFK, TVF and BJI. Most likely done in the next hour
at DVL. Winds will decouple in the next hour or two with gusts
developing again tomorrow afternoon but as strong as today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Red flag warning was allowed to expire at 9am with improving RHs
and diminishing winds. Tomorrow will be a bit more humid with less
winds so more of a near critical day given the dry fuels, at
least at this point.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JK
FIRE WEATHER...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1006 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a warm
front lifting northeast across far northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon. Despite temps warming into the middle to upper 80s,
the atmosphere remains capped thanks to abundant dry air below 700
mb. Otherwise, a mid-summer like pattern will be moving into the
region over the next 24 hours. As a shortwave impulse drops a cold
front into the Lake Superior region late tonight into Saturday,
forecast concerns mainly revolve around temperatures and
thunderstorm chances.
Tonight...Generally quiet, warm, and breezy weather is expected.
Warm air aloft will continue to fold into the region from the
northern plains, while a tightening pressure gradient will bring
breezy southwest winds through the night. A cold front will move
into the Lake Superior region late and some showers could reach as
far southeast as the western Upper Peninsula. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear with lows ranging from the middle 60s to near
70 degrees.
Saturday...The cold front may drop as far south as the Upper
Peninsula. Convergence along the front will likely get enhanced
from lake breezes off a cold Lake Superior. While it`s possible
that light showers or thundershowers could move into the western
Upper Peninsula in the morning, think this activity will remain
north of the border. With day time heating, surface based
instability is forecast to rise to around 2000 j/kg, but a cap of
75-100 j/kg will remain in place due to the dry airmass. As
convergence increases via lake breeze interaction, thunderstorms
that redevelop over the U.P. could make a run at the border, and
will leave a small chance during the afternoon. 925mb and
statistical guidance point towards lower 90s for highs, which
isn`t that different from the previous forecast.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
The main focus from this forecast period revolves around the
continued well above normal temperatures through the end of next
work week and the on and off chances for showers and storms.
Saturday night through Sunday night...Isolated showers and storms
may linger along the northern WI/Upper MI border into Saturday
evening, but will quickly dissipate by Saturday night due to the
loss of daytime heating and the surface boundaries lifting north.
The rest of the weekend will be dry with an upper-level ridge
overhead with a persistent low-level southwesterly flow. This will
keep temperatures well above normal with overnight lows for Saturday
night and Sunday night in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and high
temperatures on Sunday in the middle 80s to lower 90s.
Rest of the extended...Models indicate a frontal boundary will move
across northern MN into far northwest WI by Monday morning. As the
front attempts to move into the far northern portion of the CWA, it
appears to weaken significantly due to some mid-level dry air. This
boundary may be able to spark a few showers and storms, however,
keeping only slight chance PoPs across the north during this time.
Otherwise, diurnally driven convection is expected each day during
the afternoon and evening through the end of the next work week.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal with highs
averaging in the middle 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The main
aviation concern will be LLWS, as southwest winds around 45 kts
just above the surface continue into early Saturday morning.
Southwest winds will also remain gusty at the surface through
Saturday. There is a small chance of thunderstorms near the Upper
Michigan border in the afternoon and evening, but these will most
likely remain north of the RHI TAF site.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1028 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will bring thunderstorms
across interior areas on Saturday. Surface high pressure will
build into the region by Sunday and last through Tuesday with
hot and dry conditions expected. Near record heat is possible
over this period. A cold front will approach the region by mid-
week brining thunderstorms and cooler weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1030PM UPDATE...
A few stray showers developed in central Vermont and west
central New Hampshire but are finally dissipating. Otherwise it
remains nearly clear across the area with temperatures on their
way down to the 50s overnight. There is a chance that some
record warm lows will be set for June 4 if locations do not
fall below the record by midnight. Those include Portland (61)
and Augusta (59) whose records were both set in 1960.
8PM UPDATE...
Made some adjustments to sky cover forecast as well as
precipitation chances based on latest observations and forecast
thinking. Should be a mostly clear night tonight. Even stray
showers in Canada are already dissipating and are unlikely to
cross the border.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
We are settling into a pattern where 500 MB ridging will build
to our S, and we will be on the northern periphery of the jet
over the top of the ridge. As such we will see a weak wave
moving well N of the CWA tonight, which could produce a few
showers across the mtns this evening, but nothing substantial.
Otherwise clearing skies and light winds should allow for one
more cooler night before the heat builds in with lows mostly in
the 50s. Coastal fog is possible, mainly along the immediate
coast, while radiation fog will be possible in sheltered areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temps will warm considerably on Saturday, as strong SW flow
begins along the edge of the Atlantic ridge. The day will start
sunny and should mostly become partly sunny across much of the
area, although clouds will likely develop in the ME mtns during
the afternoon. Highs range from the around 80 in the mtns to
near 90 in srn NH, with the beaches and mid-coast region in the
mid- upper 70s. Of concern is the potential for severe weather,
mainly across the nrn half of the CWA. Fairly strong wave
passing just N of the Saint Lawrence valley will generate some
dynamic forcing which will extend S into CWA, over surface based
instability around 1000 J/kg. Fairly strong winds aloft will
allow for good speed shear as well. The problem is there will
initially be decent mid-level capping into the afternoon. At
some point will start to see cells develop as they break the cap,
but this will likely not be until mid to late afternoon in the
mtns. But, 12Z NAM and 18Z HRRR are now focusing most of the
action on possible MCS cross the northeastern zones Sat
evening. At this point, will have to watch for potential severe
storms late in the afternoon and the evening, but threat may
become clearer in future forecasts.
Lows will be mild Sat night, and generally run from the low 60s
in the mtns, to the mid to upper 60s in the S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Record Heat Possible Beginning of Next Week...
No significant change in guidance with a sprawling anomalous
500mb ridge moving over the Northeast sector with +2 to +3 SD
700mb temps. 925mb temps will surge to +24C along with westerly
downslope winds which will aid in adiabatic warming along the
coastal plain. This will support well above normal temperatures
with highs running near 20 degrees above normal for most areas
on Sunday. Not much change on Monday which could be the peak
heat day with heat index criteria possible in the coastal
plain as highs reach near 95 degrees. Dewpoints should maintain
around 60, so it will not be an oppressive heat and humidity
event. Tuesday will be another hot day but chances for afternoon
convection increase along with cloud cover, this could trend
temps down a few degrees. Cold front is possible on Wednesday
with better agreement in this scenario with the 12Z guidance.
Most likely there will be a period of showers and thunderstorms
with this frontal passage. Cooler weather expected towards the
end of the week with low pop chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR into this evening, but could see fog at
any of the terminals late this evening into Sat morning. VFR
expected Sat.
Long Term...VFR conditions expected on Sunday through Tuesday
with hot and dry conditions. Cold front could bring
thunderstorms by Wednesday next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds may briefly approach SCA levels away from
the shore Sat afternoon and evening.
Long Term...
High pressure will dominate over the coastal waters Sunday
through Tuesday with conditions remaining below SCA. Cold front
and gusty winds along with thunderstorms is possible by
Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs possible this weekend into the beginning of next
week at all climate sites. Here`s a look at some of the
temperature records in jeopardy of falling.
SATURDAY, JUNE 5
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 87 in 1949 84 Low chance of breaking
CONCORD 98 in 1919 90 No chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 86 in 1967 83 Low chance of breaking
SUNDAY, JUNE 6
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 89 in 1953 84 Low chance of breaking
CONCORD 96 in 1925 92 Low chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 85 in 1968* 86 Strong chance of breaking
MONDAY, JUNE 7
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 95 in 1999 93 Moderate chance of breaking
CONCORD 96 in 1999 96 Good chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 92 in 1999 93 Strong chance of breaking
TUESDAY, JUNE 8
REC HIGH FCST RECORD THREAT
PORTLAND 90 in 1999* 93 Strong chance of breaking
CONCORD 94 in 2008 94 Good chance of breaking
AUGUSTA 90 in 2008 92 Strong chance of breaking
*MOST RECENT OF SEVERAL YEARS
In addition, record warm lows are likely to fall as well. The
record warm lows for each day are listed below.
RECORD WARM LOWS
SAT JUN 5 SUN JUN 6 MON JUN 7 TUE JUN 8
PORTLAND 65 in 2020 63 in 2020 63 in 1999 60 in 2014*
CONCORD 68 in 1925 73 in 1925 69 in 1870 67 in 1871
AUGUSTA 63 in 1960 60 in 2020* 61 in 1999 62 in 2005*
*MOST RECENT OF SEVERAL YEARS
Portland temperature records began in 1940.
Concord temperature records began in 1868.
Augusta temperature records began in 1948.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Saturday through
Saturday evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Saturday through
Saturday evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Dumont
CLIMATE...Kimble
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Really liking these current radar trends with activity looking to
be on the decrease (in both strength and coverage) across the CWA.
Will expect things to continue quieting down this evening to drop
the mention of VCSH/RA for most sites by 03Z. With these very wet
grounds and light/ calm winds progged, CIGS should fall to IFR to
MVFR by the early part of the overnight hours. Near-term guidance
does seem to restart development along the coast a bit before sun
rise, and because of its favorable track record of late, did lean
on HRRR for this. Will have to see if these SHRA/TSRAs will leave
any lingering boundaries for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise...have
opted to keep with widespread precipitation over the area through
much of the day tomorrow. There is still enough uncertainty as to
not include its mention (despite the latest runs hinting that the
upper low could track across the CWFA faster eastward and further
north). 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
Breaks in the cloud cover have allowed convective temperatures to
be met over the southern half of the CWA and showers and isolated
thunderstorms will expand in coverage through the evening hours.
SE TX continues to lie on the east side of a slow moving upper
level low over Central Texas. Moisture will continue to flow into
SE TX on the east side of this feature and occasional short waves
embedded in the upper flow will provide an increase in coverage
from time to time. The upper low begins to shift north but SE TX
will remain on the favored side of this feature for additional
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Global models are pushing
the moist axis further east on Saturday but still feel the eastern
half of the area will have some potential for locally heavy rain.
The upper level low will move further east and north Saturday
night with the deeper moisture and lift shifting east. Am
expecting some breaks in the cloud cover on Saturday amd will go
a bit warmer with MaxT values.
The heaviest rain today has been around Galveston Bay but
widespread organized heavy rain has not developed. That said,
locally heavy rain can not be ruled out but exactly when and where
leads to enough uncertainty to forgo a Flash Flood Watch at this
time. 43
LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Not much change to the extended forecast period from the previous
issuance. Chance of showers and thunderstorms can be expected over
portions of Southeast Texas each day through at least midweek.
The upper level low and associated trough will continue to proceed
east into Northern and Northeastern TX Sunday with associated trough
expanding well over Western and Northern Gulf of Mexico. Given the
continuance of southerly flow providing us with good low level
moisture transport and the proximity of the upper jet (though
displaced to our east/southeast), expect a few more rounds of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, some potentially capable of
producing a few more rounds of locally heavy rainfall. The low is
expected to move northeastward early next week and weaken as it does
so. Regardless, southerly flow will strengthen as the local pressure
gradient tightens continuing to bring pulses of moisture into the
local area, and hence, continue to favor shower and thunderstorm
development -- though not as widespread as this weekend. Upper level
ridging will begin to build out over Western TX and Central CONUS by
midweek, however, it does not technically extend all the way over
into our local area. With not much influence from either a trough or
ridge, activity midweek into the end of the work week looks to be
more diurnally driven.
Though total rainfall amounts during the next 7 days has decreased,
locally heavy rainfall with very slow moving storms or training will
increase the risk of flooding. Considering the expected rainfall
amounts, along with wet soils lurking across portions of the CWA and
water levels running high in a few of our rivers, it will not take
much to experience some flooding in parts of Southeast TX. Flash
Flood Watches may be issued in the next day or so. Please stay alert
and prepared in case one is issued for your area.
Temperatures will begin an upward trend next week, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s and lows in the 70s.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 83 69 86 72 / 50 70 30 50 40
Houston (IAH) 70 83 70 85 74 / 50 80 50 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 75 83 76 84 78 / 60 70 60 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.UPDATE...
Quieting down after an active afternoon featuring convective cells
with high precipitation efficiency (local rainfall amounts of 3-6").
Some early evening redevelopment across Lake Okeechobee and the
southern Kissimmee basin has weakened quite a bit over the past hour.
Otherwise, lingering debris rain and a few small embedded cells
across the north/central are steadily weakening and dissipating.
Evening update will likely remove POPs over land or end by midnight
per the latest HRRR run, and allow for some regeneration over water
later tonight. Convective debris clouds will slowly thin/dissipate.
Lows in the L70s with a light S-SSE wind.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR overnight. strategy for the 00Z TAF package was to
go with VCTS over the coastal aerodromes for 2-4hr (longest at DAB)
during the early afternoon (starting 16-17Z) then transition inland
by 20Z. Did not commit to TEMPO groups this far out yet, given POPs
are lower than they were today.
&&
.MARINE...No changes as S-SE winds <15kt continue to produce 3-4ft
seas across the local Atlantic.
&&
Cristaldi/Fehling/Watson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 400 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021)
The Weekend...High pressure ridge axis extending from Bermuda
through the western Atlantic will remain in place, stretching
towards the local area, through the first half of the weekend. Then,
the axis will begin to shift northward Sunday afternoon. Despite the
movement in the ridge axis, we expect the southeasterly surface flow
pattern to continue, with PWATs approaching 2" each afternoon.
Generally light S/SW steering flow on Saturday will become S/SE on
Sunday, decreasing PoPs, as showers and storms focus on the western
half of the peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm chances around 50-60%
along the I-4 corridor and 30-40% to the south on Saturday becoming
40-50% on Sunday. Southeast winds increasing to around 10-15mph each
afternoon along the sea breeze.
Near normal temperatures expected, with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Morning lows will also be seasonable, in the low 70s, but
mid-70s will be possible along the coast due to onshore flow.
Monday-Thursday (previous)...The ridge axis will continue
northward, settling in over the southeast US early next week.
Backing surface flow will become gradually more easterly into
Wednesday, ushering in comparatively drier air than previous days.
Peak PWATs falling to around 1.6"; thus, decreasing PoPs through
the end of the period. Models continue a decreasing trend in
shower and thunderstorm chances for next week. However, will
maintain mention for a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms and will reevaluate for future updates. Current
forecast mentions PoPs up to around 30%, with peak values across
the interior. Highs remaining in the upper 80s to near 90, with
morning lows in the low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Ongoing showers and lightning storms, mainly along the northern
inland terminals pushing towards the coast. Cell movement is
towards the NE around 20 KT. MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGs with passing
showers and storms. KMLB northward will be the main focus for
convection later this afternoon and evening. Convection is
expected to dissipate shortly after sundown. Winds are SE around
10-12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible this afternoon before
decreasing to around 5 KT overnight. Winds will then pick back up
to around 10-12 KT by late tomorrow morning, with the higher winds
occurring along the southern coastal terminals. Showers are
expected to resume by late morning/early afternoon with lightning
storms developing later in the afternoon. Current model guidance
is indicating cell motion will once again be NE around 20 KT, with
convection initially developing across the interior and pushing
towards the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Evening-overnight...Showers and storms will reach the local
coastal waters this afternoon into the evening as these will
affect the local waters through the evening hours. Localized gusty
winds and higher seas could accompany these storms. Then later
tonight, new development of showers and perhaps a few storms will
be possible over the offshore waters moving northward. Otherwise,
winds will range 10-15 kt with seas ranging between 3 ft
(nearshore) to 4 ft (offshore).
Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...High pressure over the local area
will maintain SE flow through the weekend, becoming E into early
next week. Winds 10-15kts through the period, especially along the
coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Shower and
thunderstorm chances each day, though decreasing through Tuesday.
Seas 2-4ft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 88 73 87 / 40 40 20 30
MCO 72 91 73 91 / 50 60 30 40
MLB 74 88 75 88 / 40 40 20 30
VRB 73 88 74 88 / 30 40 20 30
LEE 73 90 73 91 / 40 60 30 50
SFB 72 90 73 91 / 50 60 30 40
ORL 73 91 75 91 / 50 60 30 40
FPR 72 88 73 88 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Negron/Kelly/Watson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
742 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the southwest CONUS into the Upper Mississippi Valley resulting in
nearly zonal flow through southern Canada. An upstream shortwave
trough extending from far northwest Ontario into southern Manitoba
and associated sfc low supported tsra from south and southwest of
CYPL. Otherwise, sw low level WAA and sunshine has pushed temps
into the upper 80s over much of the west half of Upper Michigan
while modification from Lake Michigan has kept temps in the 60s to
upper 70s over the east.
Tonight, expect an increasing LLJ and 850-700 mb theta-e advection
ahead of the northwest Ontario low will support increased convective
development tonight. Models suggest that the tsra will spread into
northern portions of Lake Superior, possibly clipping the
Keweenaw late. Southwest winds and mixing will keep min temps in
the mid and upper 60s the readings around 70 where downsloping
prevails near Lake Superior.
Saturday, outflow from the overnight convection should help push
cooler marine layer into the north. Confidence is low with the
potential for and evolution of convection. While the sfc boundary
may push inland, additional elevated convection may remain to the
north. Several CAMs suggest that enough of a boundary will develop
farther south to bring tsra toward IMT-ESC. Shear and instability
(MLCAPE to around 2000 J/Kg) will be strong enough to support a
conditional risk of severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail, per SPC marginal risk outlook. Temps will also vary widely
with readings climbing at or above 90 inland but remaining much
cooler near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2021
For Sunday... broad ridging will be over the forecast area. A weak
and shallow surface front will be over Lake Superior. Storms will
have a tough time firing off with capping present. With temperatures
rising to 90 and above, relative humidities falling below 40
percent, and southwest winds increasing... fire weather conditions
will be quite favorable. Fire weather related headlines are possible.
Fire weather condition remain favorable as the week progresses.
Temperatures will remain above to much above normal, but with
daytime humidities rising. There will be a chance of showers for the
entire work week with the occasional shortwave moving through and a
weak stationary front persisting over the northern Great Lakes.
Isolated thunderstorm are possible, but a severe outbreak isn`t
realistic at this time. The best chance for thunderstorms still
appears to be Tuesday. It does appear the ridge shows signs of
weakening by the end of the week, so need to keep an eye on
Friday for thunderstorm activity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2021
The biggest, more immediate concern for aviation interests in the
overnight period will be LLWS, looking to be fairly widespread
across Upper Michigan. Surface winds will remain elevated tonight,
looking to wane just a bit early on Saturday. Outside of that,
VFR conditions will continue to dominate through much, if not all
of this TAF period, with some question around potential convective
activity at the terminals, namely KCMX and KSAW. Confidence is
too low at this issuance to include within the TAFs themselves,
but did mention VCSH at KCMX for the early morning hours given
that airport might see some of the lingering activity currently
erupting along the MN/ON border. Additional diurnally-driven
afternoon convection may develop tomorrow, so stay tuned.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 414 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2021
Southwest winds will gust into the 20-25 knot range tonight ahead of
low pressure moving through northern Ontario. However, with the
strong low level stability winds at the surface will be
significantly less. Otherwise, expect winds across Lake Superior
to be mostly under 20kt through the forecast period. Fog may
become an issue in the coming days as air mass over the area
becomes increasingly humid especially if significant rain
develops.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KFM
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...JLB