Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/31/21

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
819 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 .UPDATE... Severe thunderstorm watch 225 has expired. Updated Wx grids to reflect current trends. Still looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger through the overnight hours. ZFP already out. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...515 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Low level moisture will continue to make a run west and northwestward through the RGV and to the Continental Divide and into northwest NM. A few drier showers and storms with wind gusts to around 45kt will prevail over portions of nw and west central NM as well as the RGV. From the central mt chain ewd, convection was becoming less widespread at 23Z but a few storms will continue to be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 50kt through 02Z. Higher terrain will become obscured in widespread MVFR to IFR cigs/vbys in br and precipitation developing by 06Z from the central mt chain to the TX border. Improvement is expected to be slow between 31/13-17Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern New Mexico today. Locally heavy rainfall, damaging wind, and large hail are the primary threats. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over Memorial Day for much of northern and central New Mexico. Temperatures will be cooler than normal for most of the forecast area with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon this week. Temperatures will trend warmer towards the weekend, bringing most locales near to slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Low level moisture made a run farther west as well as up the Rio Grande Valley last night and this morning. While some of this has finally started to mix out this afternoon, enough has survived to pop a few cells over and near the Valley as well as over Rio Arriba County. Some of this activity should be dry with gusty erratic winds. Elsewhere, the threat for strong to severe storms east of the central mountain chain continues for the rest of the afternoon. Locally heavy rain remains a threat, although cells have not been as prolonged in one place has the one this morning north of Tucumcari to Logan. Considered whether or not the current Flash Flood Watch needed to be expanded but models indicating mixed messages. The NAM12 is indicating a west to east oriented swath of precipitation over portions of east central NM late this evening but the HRRR is shunting the majority of the heavy precipitation into TX around 00Z. Therefore will let the current Watch ride. On Memorial Day, northwest flow is forecast over north central and northeast NM as low level moisture continues to leak westward, therefore the focus for heavy rain may be more over the northern mountains and northeast Memorial Day, where locally heavy rainfall has been inserted in the weather grids. The severe threat is forecast to be more limited Memorial Day to southeast NM, at least at this time per the SPC Day 2 Outlook. Otherwise, low clouds and fog will return to the east tonight and where high temperatures Memorial Day will be much cooler than normal. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Upper level low pressure in the Baja will continue to spin in place on Tuesday as a disturbance digs into northern NM. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be favored across the eastern slopes of the central mts before pushing off into the eastern plains in the afternoon. With steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of around 8 deg/km and CAPE values between 800 to 1200 J/kg, a few storms may become strong with isolated hail and damaging wind. Wednesday offers a similar setup as the upper low maintains its anchor in the Baja while the trough in the Midwest continues to swing its axis to the east. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be on tap for the central mts and eastward as the west remains mostly dry. The exception might be across portions of southwest NM, where some residual moisture may help to support some limited convection, though accumulations of more than a few hundredths of an inch look unlikely. By Wednesday night, an area of high pressure forms near the Great Basin, forcing the western portion of the CONUS into a Rex block. This will allow for moisture to continue to be pulled in from the Gulf and for the daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms to persist through the end of the week. While coverage across areas west of the central mt chain looks more favorable, it is not very well resolved by models at this stage in the game. The Rex block degrades on Saturday, shifting the pattern into a less favorable moisture regime for the Land of Enchantment. Models diverge at this point, with the GFS displaying the cutoff low wandering through the Baja while the ECMWF develops a ridge across the Desert Southwest and the CMC brings an amplified low in off the coast of CA. Evolution of these upper level features will dictate the possibility of continued precipitation coverage towards the end of the long term. Otherwise, temperatures will trend below average through next week for most locales, the exception being the west which will be near to above average. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Low level moisture has leaked into the Rio Grande Valley and Northwest Mountains last night and this morning, allowing for some mostly dry showers and storms with erratic winds between the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide through this evening. Moisture will continue to seep westward tonight and Memorial Day where chances will increase for wetting rain with any convection. From the central mountain chain eastward, wetting showers and storms will continue though Memorial Day. Some of the storms will be strong to severe during the afternoons and evenings and some may contain locally heavy rain, which could lead to flooding. Flooding is a concern for any burn scars along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Overall, humidities will trend up and temperatures down on Memorial Day. Areas of poor ventilation are forecast from the central mountain chain eastward Memorial Day and Tuesday while rates over the west will be mostly good to excellent. An upper ridge may begin to dominate the state by the middle of the week, but enough moisture will linger for daily rounds of showers and storms, focused over the mountains and east. However, chances for wetting rain gradually diminish from day to day. High temperatures will trend warmer again and humidities lower. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ214-215. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will quickly become MVFR to IFR between 00Z and 04Z Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase at all three TAF sites between 00Z and 06Z Monday which will continue through 00Z Tuesday. Thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots or higher will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms between 00Z Monday and 06Z Monday. IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail with some LIFR and VLIFR conditions in the heavy rainfall. Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots will become north to northeast 5 to 15 knots after 04Z to 06Z Monday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday... The two big questions of the day (1 will the clouds break and 2 will the boundary across the north hold there and not push through the CWA) have now been answered - yes and yes. This appears to be setting the stage for a widespread thunderstorm event with potential for severe storms and very heavy rainfall tonight which that the CAMS are finally seeming to agree on at least a little better. The jet exit region will move across the area overnight with good upper diffluence spreading across the area. Multiple S/WVs moving around the base of a deep trough in AZ S/WVs will continue to move across the area through Monday. With low clouds scattering out, temperatures have increased into the 70s most areas and ML CAPE is around 1000-1500 J/KG and is forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/KG for most of the area by 00Z. There is good low level turning in the wind fields and around a 90 kt upper level jet that will move into the area, but the RAP progs of just 25-30 kt effective bulk shear seems a tad low this evening especially given NAM pros of 30-60 kt 0-6 km shear ahead of the storms. Convective initiation is already occurring along the higher terrain of NM and the outflow boundary across the north will be another potential focus area. Discrete supercells are possible mainly in the west, but appears these will be pretty quick to congeal into an MCS that will have very good h85-h7 theta-e advection to feed this complex. Given all this, all hazards are possible but the greatest hail and tornado threat (5% per SPC) will be in the west before MCS development. Very heavy rainfall is expected and much of the area may see 1 to 3 inches (W/ locally higher amounts possible) in a short period of time. The intersection of the outflow boundary and the MCS could be an area to watch for highest rainfall totals as well as greater tornado threat as well as the SE where many HREF is pinging on higher potential for 2+ inch rainfall. A flood watch has been issued for the entire region given the high rates expected. Best upper dynamics and strongest S/WV assoc w/ the upper system might actually occur early Monday and therefore POPs remain relatively high despite being on the backside the overnight MCS. That said, storm intensity and rainfall rates should be much less Monday and therefore the Flood Watch is set to expire at 12Z for now. Cool outflow will fill in behind the storm complex w/ NRLY winds developing and this will keep the area cool, cloudy and damp on Monday with low clouds and SCT shra/tstms persisting. LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday Open wave to move across the Panhandles Monday night keeping chances for convection Monday night across most of the forecast area. Upper trough will begin to shift east away from the Panhandles Tuesday with the upper flow transitioning to northwesterly behind the departing upper trough. Lingering convection possible Tuesday. Perturbations within the northwesterly or north northwesterly upper flow aloft Wednesday through Friday will bring chances for convection again during the afternoon into the nighttime hours during the latter half of the week. Upper high builds in over the Great Basin region late in the week with a more northerly and even a northeasterly upper flow expected across the Panhandles by Friday and Saturday. Surface ridge builds down from the north into the forecast area early this week. Surfaced ridge to kick out to the south and east by the middle of the week as surface low pressure develops to the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. Surface flow to transition from upslope southeasterly to more southerly and southwesterly by the middle and end of the week. Frontal boundary to the south of the Panhandles by the middle of the week forecast to lift north and east near or into the Panhandles before frontolysis occurs by Thursday or Friday. Any residual surface boundaries across the Panhandles late this week will be a focus for lift for diurnally- driven convection. Weakness in the upper flow along with diurnal heating and ample residual low level moisture, with dew points in the 50s and 60s, will result in convection still not out of the equation Friday afternoon and evening as well as Saturday afternoon and evening. Early in the week, some of the stronger convection could still be efficient rainfall producers. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith... Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill... Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman... Wheeler. OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
728 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 447 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Summary: ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and evening hours today, with more chances of storms over northwest Wisconsin Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm up through the week, with highs in the 80s to near 90 by next weekend. The main focus in the short-term will be on chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, continuing through the evening hours, as we remain under a mid-level trough, with embedded shortwaves. The first round of storms is moving through from just south of Grand Rapids extending northeast towards Ely. This activity formed in the destabilized area of north-central Minnesota where more insolation was observed. The better environment for strong to severe storms remains to the west of the forecast area, where mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C/km exist. Surface-based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg based on the RAP analysis are present, but deep-layer shear between 20 to 30 knots isn`t the most supportive of convective updrafts. So far, we have received reports of small hail and perhaps some gusty winds to around 40 mph. As we go into the evening hours, the main cold front boundary will slide eastward, which will support another round of showers and storms. If we receive severe storms, this will be the most likely area for it. Damaging winds and large hail up to 1" in diameter will be the most likely threats. The front will continue to track southeast tonight into Monday, along with the mid-level shortwave trough lingering over the Northland. Models are indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms over northwest Wisconsin along the boundary. Mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will once again be present, but deep-layer shear will range between 20 to 30 knots. The latest run of the CAMs appear to indicate the thunderstorm activity will be largely out of our forecast area, although we can`t entirely rule out a westward shift in the activity. For now, the signal is strong enough for the Storm Prediction Center to pull out the Marginal (low-end) Risk of severe weather from northwest Wisconsin. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected, under partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry conditions are expected across the region for Tuesday, thanks to high pressure and upper-level ridging over the region. Although we have dry relative humidity values between 20 to 30 percent, winds will remain on the light side, so not anticipating elevated fire weather concerns. We will have another chance for Tuesday night through Wednesday as a mid-level trough returns to the Northland. Some thunderstorms may develop, particularly Wednesday afternoon, but instability appears to be very modest, along with little, if any, deep-layer shear. Conditions will be mostly dry for Thursday through next weekend, thanks to large-scale ridging over the upper Midwest. The main story for next weekend will be on increasing temperatures - likely the warmest temperatures we have seen thus far this year. High temperatures will warm into the 80s on Friday, with some upper 80s and lower 90s possible Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 728 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 There will be a chance for strong storms this evening then some fog and low MVFR and IFR ceilings in spots overnight. Area radars showed showers and thunderstorms across northern Minnesota this evening and this will continue through at least the late evening hours as an upper trough, surface trough, and cold front all move through the region tonight. Instability and deep layer shear have been limiting factors so far in producing severe thunderstorms but a few of the stronger storms have been capable of producing hail form pea to penny size and gusty winds to 40 mph. We expect this to continue for a few more hours before they weaken. It`s possible a storm could still go severe with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Later tonight, an area of fog and low MVFR or IFR ceilings will develop, most likely to affect the KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TAFs. The fog and IFR ceilings will lift Monday morning leading to VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 The main focus across western Lake Superior for this afternoon into tomorrow will be on increasing chances of thunderstorms, especially for early this evening and overnight. A trough of low pressure will gradually make its way eastward tonight, resulting in this activity. The threat for severe weather remains low over the nearshore waters, but a strong storm capable of stronger winds and hail can`t be ruled out, along with cloud-to-water lightning with any thunderstorm. The thunderstorm activity is expected to begin around 6 to 7 PM CDT tonight lasting through just after midnight. There is another chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly over the South Shore. Severe weather is not anticipated, but some stronger wind gusts and small hail can`t be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 46 69 47 74 / 60 20 0 0 INL 43 71 45 79 / 60 0 0 10 BRD 46 72 47 77 / 30 10 0 0 HYR 47 71 43 76 / 20 30 0 0 ASX 48 70 45 75 / 30 20 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTS AVIATION...Melde MARINE...JTS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 .UPDATE... See the 06z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 841 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021/ UPDATE... No major updates to the forecast. High thin cirrus continue to spill into the region from the northwest. Unless these clouds thicken, they should have little effect on radiational cooling overnight. Weak surface high pressure remains in place and winds have gone calm across much of the forecast area in the past hour. Temperatures are progged to fall into the upper 40s near the Tennessee River, with low to mid 50s across the rest of the area. Forecast is on track with very minor adjustments to temperatures and cloud cover. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021/ DISCUSSION... Beautiful weather will continue for the holiday weekend. SFC high pressure currently located over the Ohio Valley will begin to shift east. Winds will begin to turn around to the southeast by tomorrow, but first expect another cool night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will quickly begin to climb in the morning thanks to the southeasterly winds. Highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper flow aloft will become more southwesterly by Monday Night as an upper trough begins to dig in the Central and Southern Plains. A shortwave will rotate through the flow and could set off some showers across Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel as early as the overnight hours Monday Night. The HRRR seems the most progressive of the CAM models in regards to timing of the shortwave. Have added 20 POPS for after midnight Monday Night for Northeast Arkansas. The shortwave will move across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee on Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in association with the shortwave, but will mainly affect areas along and northwest of a Clarksdale, Mississippi to Paris, Tennessee line. The cold front will move into the area by Wednesday and Wednesday Night and stall over the area until the upper trough moves into the region to push the front east on Thursday. The front will be the main focus of shower and thunderstorm development during this time frame. Models diverge by Thursday. The GFS and Canadian models develop an upper low within in the upper trough that could meander around the Mid-South through next weekend. Meanwhile, the ECMWF builds an upper ridge over the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week. Left chance POPS in the forecast from Thursday Night through next weekend. Even if the ECMWF solution ends up being correct, there will be chances for diurnal convection during that time frame. Overall, temperatures will range from the upper 70s to the upper 80s over the course of the next 7 days. KRM && .AVIATION... /06z TAFs/ Light northeast winds will veer from the southeast by mid-morning Monday but will generally remain 7 kts or less. A few Cu are expected tomorrow with prevailing VFR conditions. High clouds will increase late tomorrow with mid-level ceilings developing toward Tuesday morning as the next system approaches the Mid-South. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
625 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay into the eastern Dakotas. A lead shortwave into western Upper Michigan and northwest WI has brought some light showers with rainfall amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Even though the the precipitation was diminishing as it moves eastward into the drier airmass, a few sprinkles of light showers may still move through central Upper Michigan late this afternoon. A stronger compact well-defined shortwave over southern Manitoba supported sct/nmrs showers and thunderstorms into northern Minnesota with some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in far nw MN. Tonight, although the shra/tsra over northern MN are likely to weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating some may survive into western Upper Michigan overnight as the Manitoba shrtwv approaches. Min temps will only fall into the mid and upper 40s with more clouds and low level WAA. Monday, similar to what was observed upstream, expect shra/tsra to develop and expand in coverage by midday into the afternoon over central Upper Michigan as daytime increases. Even with mostly cloudy skies and temps to near 70, cold mid levels (500 mb temps to -23C) may result in MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg. Despite the relatively weak 0-6km shear in the 25-30 knot range, some strong storms could develop given the steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/Km. Marginally severe hail, generally at or less than an inch, will be possible with freezing levels only around 8k ft. Wind gusts at or above 40 mph may also be possible given upstream observations. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 416 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2021 Monday evening will bring the upper level shortwave trough axis swinging through the northern Great Lakes region. This will result in lingering showers and convection across the southern half of Upper Michigan, with an area of focus primarily near the WI/MI border. Upper level steering flow will be primarily from the nw to the se, and movement of the lingering showers and thundershowers will quickly propagate toward Lake Michigan by 3Z Tuesday. PW values are not impressive, with values ranging between 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Thus, a heavy rain shower isn`t likely to amount to appreciable levels over the observation sites. With the SPC having a portion of Upper Michigan in the Day 2 Marginal Risk, the threat for widespread severe criteria convection looks minimal especially toward evening as the instability will begin to waver near sunset on Monday evening. For Tuesday, weak upper level ridging will occur. Temperatures will rebound nicely, compared to Monday after the cold front moved through Upper Michigan, for afternoon highs where low to mid 70s are likely. Guidance is signaling the diurnal lake breeze causing surface convergence in the east half of Upper Michigan Tuesday afternoon. A few diurnal cu are possible to create some possible light rain sprinkles or a brief rain shower in this area. MUCAPE values are below 500 J/kg, so instability is unlikely to assist with persistent rain shower activity. Another shortwave disturbance will approach the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing another opportunity for rain showers over the area. Medium range guidance continues to show split flow regimes where the jet stream energy will remain both north and south of the Great Lakes area concerning our cwa at this time of inspection. With a surface low expected to be north of Upper Michigan, this will keep the area in the warm sector. Southerly flow will assist with afternoon highs being slightly warmer on Wednesday, where temperatures up to the Lake Superior shoreline are likely to approach the lower to mid 70s, with slightly warmer temperatures further inland. Thursday looks mostly dry, despite a weak shortwave embedded in the flow aloft. Afternoon diurnal showers/from the lake breeze may occur over the east half of the area, but the potential remains low for total rainfall at this time. Friday through the weekend will bring much warmer temperatures to the area as model consensus is trending toward a building upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest. Very warm temperatures will be possible over Upper Michigan, possibly the warmest temperatures of the season thus far. The southerly flow will cause the areas prone to downsloping in Marquette/Alger County to experience slightly higher temperatures compared to the shoreline along Lake Michigan. Several areas may eclipse the 90 degree mark if ensembles members come to fruition in the coming 5 to 7 days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 624 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2021 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period at SAW and CMX. As showers move in late tonight into Mon morning over western Upper MI ahead of an approaching trough, cigs will lower to MVFR at KIWD briefly, otherwise will be VFR through most of the period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2021 No real marine concerns as winds of 20 knots or less are expected into next week. High pressure to the northeast will be the dominant force over the region through the rest of the weekend. Late Monday, a weak cold front will swing through the region and could produce showers and maybe a few thunderstorms, but will then be replaced by more ridging and dry weather by midweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
202 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Upper ridge continues to build across the region through the short term. For the remainder of this afternoon into the evening, there are some afternoon build-ups over the central mountains and the highlands near the Bear Lake area. High-res models are in some disagreement as to which of these area, if any, will produce any development of significance. Latest HRRR favors a cell or two shifting out of the central mountain area into the INL portion of the Snake Plain. Nested NAM appears to favor the southeast corner. Neither are inspiring much confidence, especially considering the dry forecast from other high-res solutions. This should be the last chance to see any concern for precip through the short term as the upper ridge continues to strengthen. Temperatures will continue to trend upwards through the short term. DMH .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. Upper level ridge overhead Wednesday with very warm temperatures expected and highs in low elevations near 90. Ridge axis slides slightly east Thursday and expect even warmer temperatures with many areas well into the 90s and at or near record high temperatures. May see a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms thursday and Friday mainly in high elevations. Expect slightly cooler conditions Saturday and Sunday but highs in the 80s still Friday and Saturday. Could be near seasonal normals by Sunday. May see again a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Confidence low in precipitation chances next weekend. GK && .AVIATION... Will have widespread VFR conditions continuing through Monday with mainly clear skies. Winds at sites will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range in the afternoons. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$