Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/21

National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the region into New England overnight. Winds will become breezy allowing drier air to spread across the region resulting in a dry day Thursday. The next chance for some showers arrives Friday, mainly for areas west of the Hudson River. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...Cold front now east of the region. Still dealing with some showers behind the front, as another upper level disturbance moves through. Showers most likely over the next couple hours for areas northeast of Albany, with isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. Winds have shifted to the west- northwest and increased in wake of the cold front. Showers will taper off overnight as the last short wave moves east into New England. .PREVIOUS [0745]...Cold front continues to gradually move eastward across the region, although it`s eastward progress has slowed somewhat as it tracks through the Taconics and into western New England. This has enabled an area of steady rainfall to linger along the front. The HRRR guidance has this depicted well, so have delayed end of rainfall and increased pops from around Albany northeast through much of the evening. Once the strengthening northwest flow and cold advection spreads into our region through the early morning hours and daybreak, clouds will tend to break up in parts of the Capital Region and Hudson Valley due to downslope but outside of those areas, especially in terrain, clouds may be anchored through much of the night. Still, with the cold advection and northwest winds becoming breezy, lows tonight around 40 to mid 40s with mid to upper 30s higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Increasing sunshine through Thursday morning, with areas of terrain the last to see the clouds breaking up. Northwest winds and cold advection will limit warming somewhat but strong sun should help temperatures to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with around 50 to mid 50s higher terrain. Weak high pressure centers itself over our region Thursday night with winds trending to calm. A mostly clear sky and radiational cooling conditions should help temperatures to fall steadily. There is some question as to how much mid and high clouds can build toward our region ahead of the next system, times for Friday night and Saturday. However, most of Thursday night should be mainly clear with lows in the mid to upper 30s and around 30 to lower 30s northern areas. Some frost headlines may be needed. Increasing clouds through the day Friday with light southeast winds as a complex evolution of the upper pattern begins. One upper impulse tracks out of Canada, central and western NY/PA and south of Long Island, while another upper low drops slowly out of Canada into the Great Lakes behind it through Saturday. A convergent zone of moisture, lining up with upper dynamics sets up in a north/south orientation through central NY/PA by Friday evening and through Saturday morning. Precipitation should remain mostly west of our region through the day Friday but extent of thick cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Highs Friday will depend on how much cloud cover can extend east into our region. Highs Friday around 60 to mid 60s with 50s in western areas. The timing of the precipitation slowly building east is a bit uncertain but the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills should see some chances for cold rain Friday night with even the potential for a few snow flakes mixed in. The greatest precipitation intensity within the best convergence and upper dynamics should stay in central NY/PA, but again, there are some small chances of some mixing with snow if the more intense precipitation just brushes western areas. The boundary layer temperatures, above perhaps 2000 or 3000 feet, will be around freezing but H925 should be warm enough to melt any rain/snow mix to rain in most areas. During the day Saturday, the precipitation should build east but the upper dynamics and low level convergence is expected to weaken. So lighter intensity precipitation/showers with a bit more limited coverage should affect our region Saturday. Highs Saturday in the 50s with mid to upper 40s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The period starts out Saturday night with a short wave trough exiting to our east. Other than an isolated leftover shower in the evening, most of the night looks dry and cool. There should be enough of a breeze to prevent temps from getting cold enough to worry about any frost at this time, with lows mainly in the upper 30s in valley locations. At this time Sunday (Mother`s Day) appears to be dry, as our area will be sandwiched between an upper low over SE Ontario and a progressive southern stream wave moving into the mid Atlantic region. Will only mention slight chance pops in some areas to the north and south of Albany, although temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover which is uncertain at this time. For now will mention highs in the 50s to lower 60s, which is still below normal. Forecast confidence decreases Sunday night into Monday, as the sensible weather will be highly dependent on how dominant the upper trough to the north will be compared to the southern stream wave. Models split at this time, with the ECMWF indicating a weaker northern stream trough and thus tracks the wave of low pressure closer to our area, bringing rainfall to at least the southern half of our region. However, the GFS and CMC showing a stronger and more progressive northern stream trough, which would suppress low pressure farther south and keep conditions mostly dry except for a few showers associated with the northern trough. Will mention slight/low chance pops for now until guidance becomes more clear. Isolated to widely scattered showers and cool/breezy conditions expected for Tuesday, as a broad upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast again. The next chance of a completely dry and mostly sunny day looks to be next Wednesday, as model guidance in agreement showing an area of high pressure building in from the west. Temperatures still expected to be below normal though. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front continues to gradually move eastward across the region this evening. Along and just behind the front, rain and associated IFR cigs are occurring at KPOU/KPSF with VFR/MVFR cigs at KALB/KGFL farther behind the front. Rain will taper off between 01Z- 03Z from west to east as drier air starts to filter in from the west. Conditions expected to improve to VFR at KPOU first by late this evening, then KALB/KGFL overnight and KPSF last by early Thursday morning. VFR conditions expected on Thursday, as a drier air mass settles in with high pressure building in from the west. Winds behind the cold front will become west-northwest tonight around 8-14 kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt increasing to 12-15 kt with gusts to around 20-25 kt on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts to around 30 mph Thursday afternoon... A cold front moves through this evening and breezy winds will allow drier air to spread across the region resulting in a pleasant Thursday. The next chance for some showers arrives Friday, mainly for areas west of the Hudson River. RH values tonight will be above 60 percent but will fall to around 30 percent Thursday afternoon. RH values increase to above 60 percent Thursday night and drop to around 40 percent Friday afternoon. Light winds this evening will become northwest before daybreak and increase to 15 to 25 mph through Thursday morning. There could be gusts to 30 mph Thursday afternoon. Winds diminish to less than 15 mph Thursday night and become southeast at less than 15 mph Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional tenth to third of an inch of rain is expected through this evening. Then, Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry. Rivers and stream should rise in response to the rain over the past few days but should remain within their respective banks. Our next potential for light precipitation returns Friday afternoon and night, mainly for areas west of the Hudson. Precipitation spreads to the rest of our area Saturday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
535 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites. VCTS still possible at KGUY through 03Z, if the threat ends earlier then will pull it from the TAF. Southeast winds will shift northerly with the cold front passage. GUY/DHT should have the front passing through right now (00z), with AMA lagging more closer to 3z. North winds 10-15kts gusting 20-25kts through about 12z then lightening in the 10kt range and coming around out of the southeast thereafter. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night... Looking at the current 500mb RAP analysis, the ridge is positioned over the West Coast with with a disturbance present over the Rockies and already helping to kick off storms in eastern Colorado along a surface cold front. Meanwhile a surface trough is visible on satellite with a cumulus field forming ahead of the front. Storms may attempt to fire along this boundary early this afternoon. However, the midlevel disturbance will kick across the Panhandles later this evening along with the cold front passage, which will provide additional lifting and cooling to any weak capping inversion in place right above the surface across the northern Panhandles. Strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle and eastern half of the Texas Panhandle. Instability is present but limited with MLCAPE values of less than 500 J/kg, but bulk shear is around 35 to 45 knots with pockets of 50 knots possible later into the evening hours. Soundings reveal a fairly dry boundary layer with an inverted "V" shape and very steep low level lapse rates which indicates a potential for mostly high based storms with strong or damaging wind gusts. Large hail cannot be ruled out with some buoyancy present in the hail growth zone, along with decent midlevel lapse rates present. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 70s today with breezy south southwest winds. Storms will continue to ride the front into Oklahoma later tonight and be out of the area by the early morning hours. The surface front is not bringing with it a ton of cooler air, so temperatures are not expected to be colder than last night with lows still in the 40s to lower 50s. Thursday will be a pleasant day as the ridge aloft resides just west of the Plains with a surface high building over the Southern Plains. Surface winds will return to the southeast and with this upslope flow, temperatures will likely not get much above the 70s. Rutt LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday An upper ridge will build in over the Panhandles Friday with perturbations embedded in the ridge. One perturbation will track across the forecast area early Friday and will allow for a round of convection to exit the Panhandles early Friday with shortwave trough over the central and southern Rockies approaching the Panhandles Friday afternoon. Convection expected to develop across most or all of the forecast area Friday afternoon through Friday night. Another shortwave trough then expected to track eastward out of the central and southern Rockies Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and possibly Monday morning. Convection expected to develop and increase in areal coverage Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and possibly as late as Monday morning across most or all of the Panhandles. Main upper trough will track east across the Great Basin region and southwestern states and Four Corners region Monday night through Tuesday and Tuesday night. This upper trough will bring additional convection to most or all of the forecast area late Monday night and Tuesday through Tuesday night. Surface low over southeastern Colorado Friday will bring a cold front from eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with a surface trough or dryline across eastern New Mexico by late Friday. The cold front may remain stationary to the north and east of the forecast area with the dryline over the eastern Plains of New Mexico Friday night. Surface low to drop south into the Panhandles by late Saturday and will usher in the cold front Saturday evening and Saturday night. Another surface low to develop on the frontal boundary over the southern Rockies Sunday with reinforcing surge of cooler air by Sunday night with the surface pressure gradient tightening up. Gusty upslope surface flow Sunday into Sunday night through Monday night and Tuesday in the much cooler and more moist post-frontal air mass regime. Schneider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 48 78 54 86 60 / 10 0 0 5 20 Beaver OK 45 75 51 90 59 / 30 0 0 5 20 Boise City OK 40 76 51 87 53 / 10 0 0 20 10 Borger TX 52 81 57 90 63 / 20 0 0 5 20 Boys Ranch TX 48 80 55 90 59 / 10 0 0 10 20 Canyon TX 46 79 53 87 58 / 10 0 0 5 20 Clarendon TX 50 77 55 85 62 / 20 5 0 5 20 Dalhart TX 42 77 50 86 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 Guymon OK 44 77 52 89 58 / 30 0 0 10 10 Hereford TX 46 80 54 87 58 / 5 0 0 10 20 Lipscomb TX 46 76 52 88 60 / 40 0 0 5 20 Pampa TX 48 77 54 86 60 / 20 0 0 5 20 Shamrock TX 51 79 52 87 61 / 30 5 0 5 20 Wellington TX 51 80 53 86 62 / 20 5 0 5 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 89/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1046 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will reach Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes by early Thursday. Gusty northwest winds early Thursday trend lighter by afternoon with seasonable temperatures, sunshine and dry conditions. Next chance of showers arrives Friday night into Saturday, as a coastal low pressure passes offshore, although a washout is not expected. Dry and seasonably mild weather briefly returns Sunday, before yet another coastal low and rain possibly impacts the region Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... No major changes to the forecast. Did tweak rainfall chances overnight based on the last several runs of the HRRR and observed radar trends. Not expecting temperatures to change much the rest of tonight. Northwest winds becoming gusty after midnight. 7 PM Update: Weak 1002 mb low just southeast of Nantucket per latest obs and buoys. Back edge of rain shield moving thru the Worcester Hills and RI, and traversing steadily eastward. Wind shift to the WNW already across Western CT/MA, and this drier air and subsidence will continue to overspread the region overnight from west to east. Thus, a drying trend overnight from west to east. Previous forecast captures this nicely, so no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below. ================================================================= For tonight, as surface low pulls away, ongoing rains should trend lighter and more intermittent as light northerly flow trends northwest. As rain ends by mid to late evening, should see event total rainfall from a quarter inch or less across eastern MA and much of RI, with a quarter to nearly one-half inch across interior western/central MA and across most of northern CT. NW winds will trend increasingly breezy due to strengthening isallobaric/pressure gradient and cool/dry advection helping to steepen overnight lapse rates. Gusts to 25-30 mph developing late in the overnight into the pre-dawn hrs Thurs. Skies should begin to scatter out especially second half of tonight, leading to mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. 925 mb temps fall to around +1 to +4C. Kept lows in the 40s, low 40s in the Berkshires and mid/upper 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 313 PM Update: Thursday... A broad upper-level trough centered over the Midwest will slowly move eastward on Thursday behind low-pressure and an associated cold front moving east over the Atlantic ocean. West/northwesterly flow behind the cold-front will usher in a drier air mass over southern New England with PWAT values below 0.40". With very little moisture in the atmosphere we will be looking at mostly clear skies on Thursday. However, some model guidance has hinted at a small amount of mid-high level moisture that may allow for a few mid-high clouds to develop in the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between weak high pressure building in from the west and low-pressure over the Atlantic will relax as the day progresses on Thursday. This means we`ll begin the day with somewhat gusty winds that will gradually diminish by the mid to late afternoon hours. The clear skies and windy conditions should allow for fairly deep mixing early that will support high temperatures in the low-mid 60s across most of southern New England on Thursday afternoon. Despite the breezy conditions to start the day, this is shaping up to be the most pleasant day of the week as a period of unsettled weather will continue into the weekend. Thursday Night... A quiet evening on Thursday night as weak high pressure will largely dominate southern New England. Southwesterly flow aloft will advect moisture at the mid to high levels into the region that will result in increasing cloudiness overnight. This will limit radiational cooling and should keep low-temperatures in the low-mid 40s for most of southern New England by daybreak on Friday. Areas further north and west where less cloud cover is forecast should see lows dip into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 345 pm update... Highlights... * A mix of dry and seasonably mild days but also a few rounds of rain possible Friday... Short wave ridging holds on to provide a dry and seasonably mild day with highs 60-65. Fairly pleasant with partial sunshine and light winds. Although light onshore flow will keep the coastline in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday night, upstream northern stream energy rounds the base of the northeast trough and then enters New England. This will deepen offshore low but passing well southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark. Nonetheless, this will yield increasing clouds Fri night with a risk of scattered showers toward morning. Saturday/Sat night... As this jet energy moves across New England, downstream the offshore low continues to deepen into a Gale Center, but the upper flow is progressive, so the offshore Gale races northeast into the maritimes. Although, an inverted trough extending back across New England from the Gale Center, may have sufficient deep layer moisture and lift to support scattered showers across MA/RI/CT Sat into Sat evening, but by no means a washout with periods of dry weather too. Sunday... Fast/progressive upper flow continues, with short wave ridging advecting across New England, providing dry and seasonably mild weather. Expecting at least partial sunshine, a modest west wind 10- 20 mph and highs 60-65. Next Week... Northern stream remains active and may spawn another frontal wave with its rain shield potentially impacting Southern New England Sunday night into Monday. Cool but dry weather may follow behind this departing wave for Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in exact timing. Generally, the theme for improving conditions continues. Most areas trending dry by 06/06Z. Expect IFR to MVFR during this period. Drier NW winds will lead to more substantial W-E improvement in categories after 06Z, with most areas becoming VFR around 09Z, except across Cape Cod where MVFR type ceilings may linger. Winds become NW and increases in speed to around 8-15 kt, with increasing gusts to 20-25 kt. Thursday: High confidence. VFR. Gusty/blustery NW winds around 10-15 kt, gusts to 20-27 kt into the morning, with speeds decreasing into the aftn. Outside chance at coastal sea breeze late in the day if p-gradient diminishes as quick as some guidance indicates. Thursday Night: VFR. Light NW/WNW winds. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... In terms of marine headlines, Small Craft Advisories continue for rough seas and gusty winds up to 30 kt. Strongest gusts across the coastal waters east of MA. For tonight: Rain and fog decreases, visibilities improving from half-1 mile to unrestricted by mid tonight. N winds around 10 kt become NW and increase to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by the pre-dawn hrs, strongest on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft. For Thursday: NW winds 10-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt thru the morning hrs, then decrease to around 10 kt with gusts around 15 kt for the aftn. Seas 2-3 ft on the eastern waters, around 3-5 ft on the southern offshore waters. For Thursday Night: NW winds around 10 kt trend N/NE at similar speeds, gusts 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ230- 231-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Loconto/RM NEAR TERM...Belk/Nocera/Loconto SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...Belk/Nocera/Loconto/RM MARINE...Belk/Nocera/Loconto/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 HRRR model showing quite a number of storms along the cold front that will move into the area by mid afternoon and exit the southeast counties during the early evening. Widespread severe weather isn`t expected however the HRRR model has shown consistency on producing explicit near severe to exceeding severe criteria thunderstorm outflow wind. Through collaboration with SPC, the marginal severe weather risk area is extended even further east of the Dodge City area though this evening. Numerous 30 to 50 mph gusts are likely in the uncapped areas downwind of the focus of convective development. As the storms developing along the cold front begin producing cold pools or localized downbursts, the uncapped region down stream may see a few storms developing in advance of the gust front. Rain cooled outflow should drop temperatures quickly over the eastern sections of the area; into the 50s by early evening while the far southwest sections enjoys more mild upper 60s well into the early evening hours. Models suggest the cold front stalls out over north central Kansas into west central Kansas this evening , and with the moisture left over from the exiting storms, the later evening and overnight could possible see some fog developing despite light southwest winds - a mesoscale problem better diagnosed later this evening. Thursday should shape up to be a much quieter weather day as the center of surface high pressure settles over the central/southern High Plains areas from the KS/CO line into north Texas. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Welcome to Summer in May on Saturday. There is still a range of high temperatures (mid 90s to as low as mid 80s) among the models and this may be caused by the frontal position or storm development timing. Saturday also looks interesting for potential supercells near a dryline and warm front intersection in central Kansas - which may not linger long for our area, or remain to the east altogether as the convection quickly moves east into eastern Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 VFR flying conditions are expected this TAF period for all terminals. Lingering convection along a weak cold front moving through southwest Kansas has cleared HYS and GCK, and will clear DDC and LBL in the next hour. Winds will remain light and variable through tomorrow under the influence of weak surface high pressure. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Cooler weather conditions in the near term will preclude very low rh and therefore fire weather concerns. Hot and potentially much drier condition will return however, mainly over the most western areas of the forecast area by friday and heading into Saturday. Look for gusty winds into the 30 to 40 mph range as early as late morning Friday and through the day, with relative humidity falling to as low as around 20 percent in the far west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 43 71 48 86 / 30 0 10 10 GCK 40 71 47 87 / 30 0 0 0 EHA 42 76 52 90 / 40 0 0 10 LBL 42 74 49 89 / 50 0 0 10 HYS 43 68 44 79 / 30 0 10 10 P28 46 72 47 82 / 60 0 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Springer FIRE WEATHER...Russell
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1026 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Area of WAA driven showers continues to move eastward through NW IA/SW MN this afternoon and should exit the area by evening. Meanwhile, a surface low currently analyzed along the MO River in SE SD/NE Neb has provided enough forcing for an arcing line of weak thunderstorms through NE Neb which may drift toward our far SE SD counties and eventually Hwy 20 in NW IA. Mid afternoon RAP mesoanalysis suggest roughly 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE in this area and while quite unlikely, with a bit of enhanced near surface vorticity, the main concern would be the (small) potential for a brief funnel/landspout with any convection. Meanwhile further west, a second cluster of weak convection in south central SD may occasionally produce gusts to around 50 mph with a dry subcloud layer noted in the soundings. Surface high pressure drifts down to through central SD overnight and will set up the potential for frost producing temperatures. A few question marks remain however in regards to cloud cover with a few model solutions hanging on to either a mid level deck or worse yet, a low stratus deck. Areas south of I-90 seem to be favored for this cloud contamination but SREF probabilities for reduced ceilings are not overly impressive. For this reason, have kept overnight lows roughly near the 50th percentile which still produces widespread lower to mid 30s over about the northwest 2/3rds of our forecast area. With dewpoint depressions supportive of frost, have issued a Frost Advisory for this area as well. Quiet conditions return for Thursday with added sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 60s. While the better SPG remains to our east, still could see some gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Of more important note is various forecast soundings showing 25-30 mph of wind at the top of the mixed layer along the Buffalo Ridge, which combined with RH values in the lower to mid 20s, could result in enhanced fire weather concerns. After collaboration with our fire weather partners, have held off on any headlines given the recent rainfall and greenup. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Ridge axis shifts east for Friday with continued quiet conditions across our immediate area. Again, temperatures in the 60s look to be a good bet although perhaps a bit cooler across SW MN where a weak backdoor cold front and north/northeasterly winds may keep temperatures in the upper 50s. Attention for Saturday turns to cut off low dropping through the Pac NW. The main baroclinic zone as well as instability axis looks to remain to the southwest of our forecast area and thus the better convectively enhanced rainfall amounts should remain void of our area as well. There is still a fairly good zone of broad synoptic lift further east however and thus lighter showers could still very well be in the mix for at least the western half our area. Last few deterministic runs of the global models have shown a southwestward shift with the QPF axis which is supported by the ECMWF ensemble as well. In either case, outside of maybe the GFS, does not look like any rainfall amounts would make a significant impact to our ongoing drought. For Sunday into early next week, previously mentioned cutoff low wobbles across the intermountain west while a second cut off sinks toward the Great Lakes region. This leaves our region in an area of muddled shortwave ridging. Temperatures will likely remain on the cool side of normal with mid 50s to mid 60s fairly common. Precipitation chances also look to remain minimal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 MVFR ceilings will continue to shift eastward but may still impact areas along and east of a FSD to SUX line before 12z. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. Expect north winds to gradually weaken overnight as sfc high pressure builds in. Winds will increase with mixing Thursday morning. During the afternoon, expect gusts up to 25 kts and diurnally driven mid level cumulus. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040-050- 052>069. MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for IAZ001. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kalin LONG TERM...Kalin AVIATION...BP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
928 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 ...LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH NEXT ROUND FOR NE FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING... .UPDATE... A thermal trough and outflow boundary produced scattered showers and a few strong t`storms this evening just north of the I-10 corridor and across the JAX metro area as an upper level impulse crossed overhead. The highest measured convective wind gust was 38 mph at NAS JAX with a reported gust estimate of 50-55 mph across the JAX Southside. The bulk of deeper convection has shifted offshore and weakened this evening under speedy westerly flow of 25-30 kts. The 00z JAX RAOB indicated plenty of elevated instability as well as surface based instability nosing inland from the GOMEX to continue a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the night as a cold front across central GA approaches. The best potential for precip through midnight will focus across SE GA near the approaching front, then as the surface front approaches NE FL toward sunrise Thursday morning, expect an increase in precipitation coverage and intensity as the parent mid/upper level trough axis deepens overhead. Leaned toward SPC HREF guidance for precip update as the HRRR performed poorly this evening. The best potential for stronger storms Thursday will focus generally south of I-10 after sunrise through mid-afternoon Thursday where bulk shear of near 35 kts will phase over elevated surface based instabilty that edged across north-central FL from the GOMEX just ahead of the surface front. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible in a few stronger storms. Mild, muggy low temps tonight will only cool into the upper 60s to low 70s across much of NE FL, then following tomorrow`s cool front, lows Thu night will cool by about 10 degrees back toward climo values. && .MARINE... A weak trough axis drifting offshore of the local coast this evening was bringing variable winds less than 10 kts across the local waters. Updated the forecast to reflect this trend, then continued to advertise westerly winds after midnight generally 10 kts as the main cold front slides southeast across the local waters. Combined seas were running 3 ft or less. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage from the west Thursday morning, with a few strong storms possible through Thursday afternoon. Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday. && .CLIMATE... A new daily record high of 96 was set at Craig Airfield today. This broke the previous record for the date of 93 last set in 2003. && .PREV DISCUSSION [740 PM EDT]... .Short Term.../through Thursday night/... Cold front will be located to the north of the forecast area through this evening, as an upper wave moves northeast across SE GA. Expect isolated showers and storms this afternoon, with a better chance this evening as the wave moves through. The front will dip into SE GA around midnight, then to near the GA/FL line around dawn. Convective chances will continue through the night due to frontal convergence. The boundary will slowly move southeast across NE FL through the day Thursday. Precipitation chances should end by midnight Thursday evening, as high pressure builds in from the west northwest. Best potential for stronger and possibly severe storms through Tonight will be across SE GA, with this potential more over NE FL during the day Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal Tonight, but trend a little below normal Thursday due to expected precipitation and cloud cover. Temperatures will trend a little below normal northwest Thursday night, while remaining near to a little above normal southeast. .Long Term.../Friday through Wednesday/... Surface high pressure will continue to build from the west northwest through the day Friday, yielding a dry northwest flow. It is expected to be a sunny day with highs a little below normal. The high will build overhead Friday night into Saturday morning, then to the east Saturday afternoon. Subsidence under the ridge will continue the dry weather with below normal temperatures. The high will move more toward the east southeast Sunday. This pattern will yield flow more from the south. This will bring warmer and more humid air back into the region, with highs trending above normal. At this point Sunday still looks like a dry day with precipitation chances too low to mention, but an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out due to sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating. A cold front will sink into the southeastern US Monday, with a chance for showers and storms ahead of it. This boundary is expected to settle near the FL/GA line Tuesday, and remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. Waves of energy will move along this boundary, leading to an unsettled period. The potential for strong to severe storms will exist in this Monday to Wednesday timeframe. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Friday] Unsettled pattern through the end of the TAF period with clusters of showers and storms expected to periodically impact the terminals. Through 06z, SSI, JAX, CRG and potentially VQQ will have the higher potential for TSRA and restrictions. After midnight, rainfall potential will continue at JAX, CRG and VQQ and increase at GNV and SGJ through early Thu morning. Most terminals will fall to MVFR tonight due to low clouds, even outside of precipitation areas, with a continuation of prevailing MVFR ceilings through mid-late afternoon Thu until drier air filters in behind frontal passage. Latest SREF guidance continued to favor best potential of IFR to potentially LIFR/VLIFR at GNV 09z- 12z tonight with some low stratus edging inland from the GOMEX, and continued to trend toward prevailing IFR with a hint of SCT002. Conditions at GNV will likely improve to prevailing MVFR 12-14z Thu as precipitation potential increases ahead of approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 81 57 77 50 / 40 20 0 0 0 SSI 71 78 62 78 58 / 50 50 10 0 0 JAX 71 82 61 82 54 / 40 60 20 0 0 SGJ 72 85 64 82 59 / 20 70 20 0 0 GNV 71 83 61 82 53 / 30 70 20 0 0 OCF 72 86 63 83 55 / 20 70 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1102 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 The forecast looks on track for the rest of the night. New short range guidance is trickling into the office, and everything continues to point to a band of showers and thunderstorms developing over central or east central Missouri along or just ahead of the cold front by mid-morning and moving southeast through the day. Latest RAP shows between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE ahead of the front coupled up with 25-35kts of 0-6km shear, and it looks like most of that shear is in the lowest 3km. Soundings don`t look particularly favorable for large hail, but a marginally severe wind gust is possible since the boundary layer looks pretty dry, and any downdrafts will get a boost from evaporative cooling. The threat for any strong/severe storms should be ending by 22-23Z as instability drops below 500 J/Kg in our southeastern counties. Carney && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 The diurnal cumulus cloud field across southwestern IL will dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. More cloud cover will advect southeastward into the entire forecast area later this evening and overnight as a northwest flow shortwave approaches. An associated cold front, currently across portions of Nebraska and Kansas will move southeastward through our forecast area late tonight and Thursday. Scattered light showers can be expected across northeast MO and west central IL towards early morning. More significant showers along with a few storms can be expected Thursday afternoon across southeast MO and southwest IL as the front intercepts better boundary layer moisture. Instability will also be more favorable due to daytime heating and relatively cold mid level temperatures in the upper level trough axis to steepen the lapse rates. Could not rule out a few strong storms with small hail and strong wind gusts. The scattered showers/storms will shift out of the forecast area by early Thursday evening. There will be below normal low temperatures Thursday night due to cold air advection behind the cold front along with a clearing sky, diminishing winds, and lowering surface dew points for good radiational cooling. GKS .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Warmer temperatures along with dry conditions can be expected for Friday. This dry weather will be short lived as low-mid level warm advection north of a developing warm front brings elevated convection, mainly to central and southeast MO late Friday night into Saturday morning. There will be strong low level moisture convergence in this area on the nose of a southwesterly low level jet. The chance of rain will increase Saturday night as the front becomes nearly stationary across our forecast area with shortwaves inducing weak areas of low pressure along the front aiding in low level convergence and convective initiation. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning. The threat for showers/storms will shift south of our forecast area by Sunday night as the front drops south of the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold Sunday night into the next work week as a strong surface ridge of high pressure over the Northern Plains builds southward into the region. GKS && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Not much change in the forecast since previous TAF issuance. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the night. The cold front looks on track to move into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois around 10-12Z Thursday morning. A band of MVFR ceilings is likely in the vicinity of the front. There will likely be some widely scattered showers in the morning ahead of the front, but latest guidance is showing the showers congealing into a band with some embedded thunderstorms ahead of the front over central or east central Missouri around 15-16Z and continuing southeast through the area. Some gusty winds and hail are possible with the strongest storms. Precipitation should be out of the area by 00Z. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
741 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 408 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northwest Ontario with a broad trough through the central CONUS. One weak shortwave trough was moving off to the northeast of Lake Superior while another moving through southwest Minnesota supported an area of rain through srn MN. Steep low level lapse rates to 700 mb and favorable low level convergence along the Lake Superior breeze boundary triggered some light showers/sprinkles over inland portions of central Upper Michigan which have diminished after moving into or toward Lake Michigan. Otherwise, even with partly to mostly sunny skies, with the cool airmass in place temps have struggled through the 40s north and into the lower 50s south. Tonight, after diurnal cu fade, expect mostly clear skies except over the far south where clouds from the MN shrtwv brush the area. Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s to around 30 inland with mid 30s along the Great Lakes. Thursday, with steep sfc-700 mb lapse rates similar today, scattered/isolated showers should develop with daytime heating close to Lake Michigan where the low level convergence is strongest. Another shrtwv approaching from the northwest late may help spread showers toward the west late. With 850 mb temps in the 0C to -2C range, temps should be a little higher with readings from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 344 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2021 The long-term pattern continues to look the way it has for the past several days. A closed upper-level low is forecast to remain anchored near James Bay through at least Sunday with multiple short waves passing through the flow around it for the next few days. By Tuesday, ridging is expected to build in the Northern Plains and then shift east towards the Upper Great Lakes. Thursday night, the strongest of many short waves embedded in NW flow will be dropping down from near Lake Winnipeg across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Models have had a fairly consistent precip signal with this feature - mainly for the west half and south central, although the 12z EC brought the precip axis farther north through the Keweenaw and Marquette. The GFS and NAM are a most aggressive with QPF with over 0.30" in spots, though all models at least show a stripe of generally 0.10" or so. Model wet bulb zero heights drop to as low as 500 feet AGL in model soundings, especially interior west. While the cloud cover and precip will keep lows Thursday night warmer than what the NBM spit out, it may still be cold enough to get a light slushy snow accumulation, especially if a brief band of heavier precip materializes as is suggested by the 12z GFS. The best chance for that looks to be along a line from Ironwood to Iron Mountain. On Friday, that wave will pull out but a second wave behind it may kick off a few more isolated rain showers. CAA behind the wave will drop 850 mb temps to around -6 C. Even with clouds beginning to clear in the afternoon, this will still make for a seasonably chilly day with highs mostly in the mid 40s. Saturday looks a few degrees warmer with models indicating more sunshine and thus deeper mixing. Once again, could see a rogue rain shower or two in the afternoon with the cold air aloft and subtle waves embedded in the NW flow. Have manually drawn in slight chance POPs across the central U.P. to account for that possibility. Sunday and Monday look dry, but still cool, as the core of the ULL dislodges Saturday night and drifts south towards Lake Superior. Highs on Sunday should continue to be mostly in the 40s. Right now this forecast has temps warming on Monday back into the upper 40s to mid 50s. However the models have trended a bit cooler aloft for Monday so it`s possible that those temps end up coming back down to right around where they`ll be on Sunday. 60s will then return to most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in from the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2021 A persistent upper-level low pressure trough will allow periods of mid-level clouds to linger over the terminals during the period, but VFR conditions will prevail. Expect light to moderate lake breezes to develop during the day on Thursday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 408 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2021 A quiet period is expected to linger over the region for the remainder of the week and into the weekend with winds below 20 knots expected. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
702 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Patchy clouds continue to form and stream through the Quad State this afternoon from the NNW. These clouds have kept temperatures lower than expected, mainly in the low to mid 60s. Cloud cover will finally diminish during the evening to mostly clear skies. An upper-level trough will dig into the midwest through tomorrow. Low pressure crosses ESE-ward from Iowa to Ohio, dragging a cold into Southern Illinois mid-morning Thursday, crossing the Quad State through the rest of the day and early evening. The front will bring showers and a chance of storms to the area. Models have trended to a more organized structure with this line, especially the HRRR (which is also one of the more progressive models with the front). Instability is fairly low (order of 500 J/kg for MLCAPE) and shear is adequate (25-30 kt). While dew points are rather low, only around 50, but mid-level lapse rates will be a robust 7-8 C/km. As a result, a marginal risk of severe weather has been included for most of the Quad State for this line of storms. Ahead of the front, winds shift to the south, lifting highs tomorrow to the upper 60s to near 70. Ridging starts to build into the Quad State Thursday night, which will counteract the cold frontal cooling and leave lows/highs Thursday Night/Friday similar to Wednesday Night/Thursday. Friday will provide a brief return to dry weather ahead of the next system. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A wet signal is setting up, not unexpected, given the WPC All Hazards outlook for heavy rain. As the high amplitude pattern becomes more quasi-zonal with time, we`ll see first, a warm front lift north across the area late Friday night into Saturday. This brings the first shot of wet weather, but instability is lacking or elevated at best. Surface dew points still in the 40s Friday night begin to nudge their way into the 50s through the course of the day Saturday. Average QPF Friday night-Saturday on the order of about 1/4 inch is expected with the warm fropa. The warm front`s lift gets to a position somewhere along the Lower Ohio River and hangs, until the parent Low brings the cold front in/across the FA. We see better destabilization occur in the warm sector Saturday night-Sunday, ahead of the approaching cold front. Warm conveyor showers/storms may provide impetus for better localized heavy rainfall, which again for now, looks to be across our Lower Ohio River Valley portion of the FA. QPF on the order of 1- 2 inches for average amounts occur during this Saturday night-Sunday time frame, with some localized 2+ inch amounts potential. The cold front sweeps across the FA late Sunday-Sunday night, effectively ending the pops from northwest to southeast with its passage. Maybe another 1/4 to 1/2 inch occurs coincident. A pause it rain chances occurs after this Sunday night cold fropa, but how much of a pause is a question. The deterministic GFS suggests maybe a dry start to the week, but the Blend of models smooths the noisier signals to a low chance cat start to the week. What comes together with time is the next trof/weather system impacting a wetter forecast by the mid week time frame, thereby producing a `wetter with time` approach to the back end of the long term portion of the forecast. && .AVIATION... Issued at 702 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period. Light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly around 10 knots ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this front during the late morning and into the afternoon. Winds could be strong and gusty in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds will shift to the west/northwest during the afternoon in the wake of the front. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...ATL LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...RJP