Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/30/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1141 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.AVIATION...
An amplifying mid level wave will advance into Se Mi by daybreak,
driving colder air into Se Mi. Scattered high based showers are
possible with this secondary wave. More noteworthy will be an
increase in the northwest winds as cold air advection and daytime
heating result in a deep mixed layer by late Fri morning, supportive
of gusts around 30 knots.
For DTW...Westerly winds will actually increase prior to daybreak as
low level cold air advection commences, with gusts reaching 30 knots
by late morning.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in crosswind thresholds being exceeded late Friday morning
and Friday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
UPDATE...
While the main region of rain which impacted the area this afternoon
has moved east, a forecast update was issued to account for two
periods of scattered shower potential. The showers now moving into
western Lower Mi developed within the diurnal instability across
Wisconsin this afternoon. A weak short wave and steep mid level lapse
rates is helping to sustain these showers as they advance to the
east. While instability will wane farther east, likely allowing
further weakening, steep lapse rates within the remnant mid level
moisture should still support at least a few scattered showers in
the 03Z to 07Z time frame tonight.
A stronger mid level wave now approaching the arrowhead of Minnesota
and Lake Superior will amplify as it dives into Lake Huron and Se Mi
Fri morning. A short lived but respectable period of ascent along
the edge of the mid level cold pool will traverse the forecast area
from daybreak through roughly 15Z Fri morning. Given the dynamics and
latest HRRR and 3km NAM, scattered showers has been added to the
Friday morning forecast.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
DISCUSSION...
Soggy conditions continue this afternoon as rainfall moves across
southeast Michigan. The main surface low is drifting northeastward
along the frontal boundary draped across Ohio into southern Indiana.
The ongoing rainfall spreading eastward is being supported by FGEN/
deformation with favorable jet dynamics ahead of an inbound height
falls and associated vorticity advection. This area of light to
moderate stratiform rain should push east of Michigan this evening
by around 23-00Z.
Cold front currently over the western Great Lakes will swing across
southeast Michigan tonight. This will usher in a much cooler and
drier airmass. Strong shortwave and associated vorticity advection
dive into the central Great Lakes on Friday. This may be enough to
generate some isolated rain showers early in morning. Otherwise,
expecting dry conditions for the remainder of the day given the very
dry airmass with PWATs around a quarter inch moving into the area.
Breezy conditions are expected for much of Friday. Expecting mostly
sunny skies while the depth of the mixed layer increases to near 2
km. Winds within the 1-2 km column will increase to 30-40 knots.
This will bring about the these breezy conditions with northwest
wind gusts up to 30-35 mph through much of the day. Even with mostly
sunshine, the cold airmass should hold daytime high temperatures in
the 50s. Limited cloud cover continues into Friday night allowing
overnight low temperatures to drop to around the freezing mark.
Low level ridge axis moves east of the state early Saturday leading
to a very quick warmup for Saturday as a roughly 10C temperature
jump occurs at 850 mb. This will lead to a warming trend starting on
Saturday as daytime highs reach to around 70 for many inland areas.
A tight pressure gradient sets up on Saturday with a high pressure
to our south and an inbound shortwave from the northern plains. At
the base of these height falls will be a 50 knot low level jet
streak. This sets up another period of breezy conditions Saturday
afternoon as winds around the top of the mixed layer at 40-50 knots.
If these winds are able to get mixed down, occasional gusts up to 40
mph will be possible. For now, mainly expecting gusts in the 30 to
35 mph range again. There is also potential for scattered rain
showers Saturday, mostly across the northern portions of the CWA.
Mid level zonal flow expected Sunday along with southwesterly lower
level flow will continue the warming trend helping bump temperatures
further into the 70s for Sunday. Low chances for rain on Sunday with
the likely chance for showers and thunderstorms coming Sunday night
and Monday. This will result from as a shortwave lifting out of the
southern plains that generates a surface low along a frontal
boundary and takes aim at the central Great Lakes. Colder
temperatures settle into the region early next week with the passage
of a cold front.
MARINE...
Strong northwest winds and high waves tonight and Friday have lead
to small craft advisories and gales warnings from about midnight
tonight through midnight Friday. Surface gradient and strong cold
air advection will increase tonight and Friday as the area falls
between a deepening low pressure center to the east and an advancing
high pressure center to the west. Sustained winds tonight will
increase to 20-25kts in the nearshores and 25 to 30 knots over the
open waters of Lake Huron and continue Friday. Deep mixing from
cold air advection will produce gusts to near gales in the nearshore
and up to 40kts in the open waters. The far southern tip of Lake
Huron will likely see gusts just below gales. With instability over
the waters, large waves are also expected with max wave heights over
15ft possible in the open waters.
Winds will quickly decrease and back to the southwest Friday night
as the center of high pressure moves through. Tight gradient on
backside of departing high pressure will bring an increase in SSW
winds Saturday. A cold front will quickly drop south Saturday night
veering winds back northeasterly Sunday but will remain on the light
side.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LHZ462-463.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LHZ443.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-422-441-442.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Friday for LHZ361>363.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......DRC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
546 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed an upper trough
over the Midwestern US and a large closed low south of New Mexico
today. Northwest flow aloft developed this afternoon as ridging
amplified along the west coast. Skies were clear over the High
Plains, with north winds gusting at 25 to 30 mph across much of the
region. At 2 PM MT, temperatures mainly ranged in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.
Quiet weather is expected for tonight, as temperatures drop into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Clear skies prevail, with light and variable
winds becoming southwest around 10 knots.
On Friday, the Midwest trough shifts eastward and upper ridging
spreads onto the Plains. Meanwhile, the closed low south of New
Mexico remains nearly stationary. Expect highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s with dry weather. Elevated fire weather conditions are
anticipated during the afternoon hours for areas south of a line
from Flagler to Sharon Springs to Tribune. Temperatures fall to the
40s/low 50s Friday night.
On Saturday, nearly zonal flow develops as the upper ridge spans the
majority of the CONUS. To the south, the aforementioned closed low
finally ejects to the southern Plains. This disturbance will be too
far south to impact the region, and dry and warming weather
continues, with highs in the 80s and low 90s. With the warming
temperatures comes lowered relative humidity in the afternoon when
values fall into the 10 to 15 percent range for southwestern
portions of the region. This combined with south to southwest winds
gusting around 25 mph could result in near critical to critical fire
weather conditions. Will continue to monitor.
Dry weather persists Saturday night. However, clouds look to
increase from the northwest as a cold front approaches. Temperatures
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021
The extended forecast will have several chances for showers and a
few storms. The forecast period starts with a trough over the
western CONUS and southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. A
lee trough will be in place over southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas. A closed low will be progressing east across
Minnesota with an attendant cold front dragging to the southwest.
The front will begin to move through the area during the day which
could play a factor in temperatures. For now, the coolest
temperatures are expected in eastern Colorado, where the front is
expected to move through earlier in the afternoon.
Cooler temperatures are expected to persist through Monday and
Tuesday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be primarily in the 50s and 60s. Lows will be in
the mid-30s to low 40s. Overnight, a few areas may get cold enough
for a little snow though little to no snow accumulation is expected.
Showers may linger into the day on Wednesday. Temperatures
gradually warm back into the 70s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light southeasterly winds
tonight will turn to the southwest Friday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
A somewhat tricky aviation forecast across southeast Texas. Spotty
showers and VCSH for most of our TAF sites, but shower activity is
expected to increase as a cold front approaches our area tonight.
Put in TSRA for some TAF sites starting at approximately 07-09Z
where there was higher confidence where thunderstorms would form.
Kept in VCTS everywhere else where confidence was lower, but will
amend as necessary. Currently, MVFR ceilings will drop to IFR
overnight. KBL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 306 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
A complicated and messy pattern shaping up for SE TX over the next
couple of days as a weak cold front crosses the area tonight and
an upper level low over northern Mexico meanders across the state
through the weekend. PW values are progged to exceed 2.00 inches
tonight through Friday night and this seems to be verifying well
based on satellite derived values. The NAM and GFS show upper
level winds splitting over the region late tonight and Friday
while the EC shows the best upper level divergence over Central
Texas. As the weak front slowly crosses SE TX and encounters the
warm, moist air mass over SE TX, it seems reasonable that there
will be an expansion of showers and thunderstorms over the region.
SPC still has the NE half of the region outlooked in Marginal Risk
but extensive cloud cover has limited heating and CAPE values
remain modest and lapse rates not looking all that impressive.
Could still get an occasional strong storm later tonight that
could produce brief gusty winds but the primary threat late
tonight and Friday will be the potential for heavy rain.
Where will the heavy rain fall? It`s not entirely clear but based
on the position of the front and upper level divergence, feel the
threat for heavy rain will focus over the NNW part of the region
tonight and expand to the WSW on Friday. There should be some
training of storms so some areas will receive heavy rain. At this
time, 1-2 inches of rain is expected on Friday with locally
higher amounts. Have added locally heavy rain to the wx grids
beginning after 06z tonight but will forego a Flash Flood Watch
for now based on dry antecedent conditions. Meso-scale influences
will ultimately determine where the heaviest rain will fall and
some of the short term guidance (HiRes ARW, HRRR and HREF) show
some 3 to 6 inch rainfall totals by Friday evening. The cold
front will struggle to reach the coast and will likely be pulled
back inland in response to developing low pressure near the middle
TX coast. Coastal areas could remain significantly drier than the
rest of SE TX if the front stalls inland. Will it continue to
rain Friday night? At this time, it appears that the area will be
pretty worked over and much of the available moisture will be
pulled westward toward the upper level low. The best upper level
divergence also favors the WNW portion of the CWA. Will maintain
high rain chances out west but taper PoPs sharply lower to the
east.
MinT values tonight will remain warm due to clouds and onshore
winds. MaxT values on Friday won`t show much warming due to
anticipated rainfall and cloud cover with max values probably
remaining in the 70`s. A little cooler Friday night north of the
retreating front but it`ll remain warm and humid south of the
front. 43
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...
Confidence is increasing for an ongoing active weather pattern
throughout the upcoming weekend. Saturday, a surface coastal trough
situated along the TX coastal area and associated low pressure over
Southern TX will continue to enhance the transport of low level
moisture from the Gulf. PWs will likely range between 1.8 to 2.1
inches. Along the upper levels, a shortwave moving eastward
northeastward along the base of a strong upper cut-off low that is
located roughly over NE Mexico and Western TX is progged to move
over SE Texas Saturday morning. Moreover, due to the position of the
cut-off low, an area of diffluence aloft could potentially set up
over much of the eastern half of TX Saturday morning and afternoon.
Thus, it seems that these features will favor ongoing shower and
thunderstorm activity for much of the day Saturday. SPC Day 3
Outlook has placed much of the northern two thirds of the CWA under
a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Now, even though there are
many factors that could contribute to the development of strong
showers and thunderstorms, timing and positioning of both the upper
and coastal low differ slightly in the models and thus will make it
tough to pin point exactly where and when the strongest activity
will occur. The general picture at this time is for showers and
thunderstorms along the western half of the CWA Saturday morning
gradually transitioning into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low moves east or
northeast into Eastern TX. With locally heavy rainfall, there is
also the potential for minor flooding, especially along areas where
soils have been saturated by previous rainfall on Thursday and
Friday or area rain continues to entrain for long periods of time.
The WPC ERO Day 3 (Saturday) continues a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall. Activity will ebb Sunday night as all weather features
finally shift to our east and/or northeast.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms may occur Tuesday
evening into Wednesday with the next cold front. Have kept slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms at this time.
24
.MARINE...
Although winds have relaxed, the long period swell continues over
the Gulf waters and should keep seas elevated particularly over the
offshore waters through late this afternoon or evening. The SCA over
the nearshore waters has been lowered to a SCEC, but the SCA will
continue for the offshore waters. The High Risk for Rip Currents
also remains in effect through this evening. A cold front
scheduled to move across SE TX later today into Friday morning.
Then, a strong coastal surface low will develop along the TX
coasts Saturday with a strong onshore flow. A brief wind shift to
the west is expected Sunday in the wake of the sfc low but winds
will become onshore again by Sunday night. A period of strong
storms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night with precip
winding down on Sunday. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing brief periods of heavy to torrential rainfall, strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning and elevated seas. Moderate to
occasionally strong onshore winds will develop Monday into Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that is expected to cross the coastal
waters Tuesday night. Seas will remain elevated through mid week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 77 66 77 65 / 80 80 60 70 60
Houston (IAH) 72 78 67 77 68 / 70 80 30 60 60
Galveston (GLS) 73 78 71 78 71 / 40 50 20 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1119 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 924 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
Had to keep small PoPs in until 03z over far northwestern sections
this as upper trough, wind shift line and pooled moisture ahead of
those features has resulted in more upstream showers over
northeastern and east central Illinois. HRRR and radar suggest
showers may hang around a couple hours after sunset. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to bottom
out in the middle to upper 40s overnight.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
A return to quiet weather is in the offing over the next couple of
days as surface high pressure builds into the region. First, though,
an upper level trough axis will move through the area late this
afternoon into this evening. It appears that the extent of the
precipitation along with this trough is the band ongoing from
eastern Michigan down into far northwest central Indiana. Expect
this to traverse the northern fringe of the area this afternoon and
be done with by 00Z, so will carry no precip chances this evening. A
stray drop or two would not be entirely shocking, but with the
column rapidly drying from aloft, do not feel pops are merited.
Stratocumulus will gradually erode and dissipate during the evening
hours with mostly clear skies expected by late tonight. Convective
temperatures may be reachable tomorrow, with some fair weather
cumulus possible as a secondary upper low slides southeastward
through the northern and eastern Great Lakes, but despite some steep
low level lapse rates, a general lack of moisture should prevent any
precipitation extending this far down into the area. Conditions will
likely be a bit breezy however, with gusts into the 20-30KT range
across the area tomorrow, highest to the northeast, thanks in part
to the aforementioned steep lapse rates and good mixing.
Dry weather and clearing skies can be expected Friday night as the
surface high slides directly overhead.
Last night`s ample rainfall will prevent any fire weather issues
tomorrow despite good wind and mixing promoting afternoon RH values
dropping well into the 30s in spots.
Given anticipated sky cover conditions, blend temperatures look
pretty spot on throughout the short term. Expect a fairly wide range
of temperatures from northeast to southwest across the area tomorrow
afternoon as a backdoor cold front slides into the area with the
upper low pushing through the Great Lakes.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
Active spring weather pattern setting up for Saturday through
Thursday as several passing systems will impact Central Indiana.
Saturday will start with dry weather as models indicate weak ridging
in place across the country along with NW flow in place across
Indiana. An upper low is seen on Saturday morning over TX...but that
should be far enough off to the southwest to not impact Central
Indiana until Sunday and Sunday Night. Meanwhile surface high
pressure over the southeastern United States will allow for a
westerly flow of warm air advection. Thus will trend toward a dry
forecast with warmer temps.
On Sunday into Monday the models eject the upper low over TX
northeast...allowing it to become involved with the flow aloft. This
will result in SW flow aloft on Sunday before a slightly negatively
tilted trough arrives in Indiana on Monday...before departing by
Monday night. Mid level moisture fields suggest higher RHs arriving
ahead of the trough by Sunday afternoon and persisting through
Monday morning with the arrival of the upper trough axis. Thus will
at least include some pops from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
morning for now.
Aloft on Tuesday and Wednesday another weak but broad trough is
shown to be residing through the plains and into the Ohio Valley. On
Tuesday...little to no upper support appears present but residual
moisture from the previous system appears to be lingering. By
Tuesday night...a short wave within the flow is depicted to be
arriving...providing better chances for forcing and precipitation.
Will include chances for pops then. This wave looks to exit area on
Wednesday morning as an associated surface cold front exits to the
southeast and high pressure builds across the area for Thursday.
Thus for the moment...dry weather by Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1118 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
IMPACTS:
* VFR flying conditions through the TAF period.
* Winds 270-290 degrees less than 10 knots through 15z.
* Winds 290-340 degrees around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after
15z and through 23z. Then, winds 340-020 degrees 10 knots or less.
DISCUSSION: Upper trough and secondary front have triggered an area
of showers and thunderstorms that are arcing southeast away from the
terminals. Other than that, very little cloud cover over the
terminals. High pressure will build in today and combined with a dry
column will lead to VFR flying conditions. Tight low pressure
gradient and mixing will allow for gusty northwest winds this
afternoon, but they will drop off prior to sunset.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term...Nield
Long Term...Puma
Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
751 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 427 PM EDT THU APR 29 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
north central Canada into the central CONUS. a shortwave trough into
western Upper Michigan and associated cold front and 850-700 fgen
supported a band of rain showers through central Upper Michigan. A
trailing shortwave and secondary cold front was moving southeast
toward northeast MN.
Tonight, expect the shrtwv and area of showers to continue moving
through the east half of Upper Michigan this evening. The secondary
shrtwv and 700-300 qvector conv will support additional sct -shra
through mainly the west half of Upper Michigan late this evening and
overnight. Northwest winds will become gusty over the east half,
especially near Lake Superior. Clouds and boundary layer mixing will
keep min temps mainly in the lower to mid 30s.
Friday, Blustery northwest winds over the central and east will
diminish late. Although much drier air moving in will bring mostly
sunny skies, temps will struggle through the lower 40s downwind of
Lake Superior while readings climb into the mid 50s near the
Wisconsin border.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT THU APR 29 2021
Western CONUS ridging early in the long-term period will give way to
western CONUS troughing this weekend into early next week. Some WAA
precip is possible Friday night with a warm frontal band of theta-e
advection/fgen pushing through from west to east. The antecedent air
mass will be very dry, however, and models show the column
struggling to saturate out west. Better precip chances are over the
east half as forcing for ascent becomes stronger. Expecting mainly
rain as ptype, though given the dry low levels and the potential for
wet bulb cooling, can`t completely rule out some snowflakes right at
the onset. Regardless, no snow accumulation is expected. Behind this
warm front, a significant warm-up is in store for Saturday, but just
how warm will depend on how quickly clouds clear out. Right now it
looks like clouds will clear out enough to allow mixing to 800 mb or
more. That should allow temps to climb into the upper 70s over the
interior west and 60s elsewhere. A dry cold front moving through the
area Saturday afternoon won`t do much to temperatures but will lead
to gusty W to NW winds and RH bottoming out around 25-30% near the
Wisconsin state line.
The next chance of rain comes Sunday night with another warm front,
this one lifting northward through Wisconsin. The question will be
how far north the frontal precip makes it. The GFS has shown a
stronger northward push, and while the deterministic 12z EC came
north as well, it is an outlier to the rest of the 12z EPS at
Marquette. Farther south it is in line with the EPS. This suggests
the best precip chances will be across the south central. This cycle
of the NBM introduced likely POPs in that area, and chance over the
rest of the U.P., which seems reasonable. Monday through the middle
of next week looks mainly dry with that western CONUS trough
shifting east into the central CONUS but deamplifying into a low
amplitude upper-level pattern east of the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 750 PM EDT THU APR 29 2021
In the wake of a cold front that has passed, incoming dry low-level
air mass should ensure VFR conditions prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru
this fcst period. A passing disturbance will bring isold to sct
-shra/sprinkles to w and central Upper MI this evening into a
portion of the overnight. Do not anticipate conditions falling out
of VFR if pcpn occurs at any of the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 427 PM EDT THU APR 29 2021
Gusty northwest winds to 30 knots are expected over the eastern lake
tonight. There may be some gale force gusts late this evening into
early Friday as colder air moves in and the mixing depth increases.
Expect winds to drop back down to 20 knots or less by Friday
evening, but winds increase to around 20 knots across the eastern
lake on Saturday morning as a warm front moves through. Winds
decrease below 20 knots again Saturday afternoon. A tight gradient
will develop into Sunday with northeast winds to 30 knots possible
as low pressure extends from the Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.UPDATE...
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are continuing to linger
over interior southwest Florida early this evening along the axis
of moisture convergence from the sea breeze collision. These
showers now appear to be falling apart on radar as the sun sets,
although the HRRR and other short range models are hinting that a
few showers could linger across the interior overnight.
A few adjustments were made to the rain chances for the overnight
period to keep up with radar trends, and the mention of thunder
was removed through Friday morning. Otherwise, the forecast looks
on track with warm and mostly rain free conditions continuing
into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. Some
patchy fog cannot be ruled out around sunrise, but is not expected
to impact area terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will hold across the waters through Friday, with
southerly to southeasterly winds over the southern waters, and
westerly winds to the north. Winds will turn onshore near the
coast with the afternoon seabreeze. A weak and mostly dry front
will push into the waters this weekend, with winds turning to
northerly on Saturday and then easterly and southerly on Sunday,
but wind speeds will remain less then headline criteria.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 87 73 88 / 10 10 0 10
FMY 72 90 70 90 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 72 91 70 90 / 10 10 0 10
SRQ 72 86 71 86 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 66 87 65 89 / 20 0 0 10
SPG 75 85 75 86 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Fleming