Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/27/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1054 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Some elevated instability exists along the edge of the elevated
cap near 700 mb and there will likely be some bubbling of storms
along it tonight. At 03Z, the edge of the cap appeared to be from
nwrn IA to north of KLSE then east toward GRB. Have shifted the
slight chance / isolated rain chances to concentrate near and
north of I-90 on that corridor where some weak sloped moisture
transport convergence is causing enough saturation to release the
potential instability. It appears 500 J/Kg is on this axis now,
and growing overnight to as much as 1000 J/Kg. With about 30 kts
of bulk shear from about 700 mb to 300 mb, cannot rule out an
elevated hail storm with a brief pulse to quarter sized hail if
all goes right.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Broad upper ridging was found centered over the Mississippi Valley
early this afternoon. The ridge axis is slowly being displaced
eastward as a deepening trough takes hold west of the Rockies. An
interesting dynamic/thermodynamic setup is taking shape downstream
of this trough over the nation`s midsection. General area of low
pressure at the surface was found over western NE early this
afternoon with a warm front cutting eastward near the MN/IA border
and then southeastward into northern IL. This front was just edging
into our southern counties with an accompanying resurgence of warm
air advection along and out ahead of it. This has produced a
widespread stratocumulus deck over the area, further complicating
the temperature forecast. RAP/HRRR have consistently been showing
drier air holding on near the surface, with a rather shallow
stratocu deck. Thus, they have been trending mainly dry for the rest
of this afternoon with the exception of fgen driven showers across
Taylor and northern Clark counties.
That band of frontogenesis will sag slightly southward along with
the warm front heading into tonight. Meanwhile low level moisture
will gradually increase as a low level jet deals a glancing blow of
moisture transport into the area, mainly south of the front. This
will favor a chance of showers further south, mainly along and south
of I-90 tonight, particularly in southwest WI. NAMnest and NMM had
been suggesting this, and recent HRRR runs are starting to show the
same potential. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered with only
light rainfall amounts.
Rain and thunder chances will be the main forecast concerns heading
into Tuesday and will largely be dictated by the position of the
warm front...making for a tricky overall forecast. Consensus now
favors the front setting up across our far south on Tuesday, casting
doubt on how warm the northern 2/3 of the forecast area may get. Far
southern counties still look to approach 80 degrees, but some areas
north of I-94 could possibly stay in the 50s. Instability will
largely be dictated by where the front sets up, but anything surface-
based will be confined to near and south of the front. North of the
front, instability will be elevated given the pronounced warm nose
aloft. HREF suggests <1000 J/kg of MUCAPE north of the front where
shortwave energy and deep layer shear will be most pronounced. CAMs
have shown very little consistency, so confidence is rather low, but
general trend has been for convection initiating upstream and then
spreading northeastward into our area, mainly north of I-90. If
thunderstorms develop, mainly in the afternoon timeframe, would have
to monitor for some elevated hailers with steep mid-level lapse
rates in place.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Large scale troughing edges into the area Tuesday night, with
continued chances for scattered showers and storms. As Tuesday`s
front sags southeastward overnight, surface low pressure will ride
along the front and clip or pass just south of the far southern
portion of the area into early Wednesday morning. Given elevated
instability/shear lagging to the northwest of the surface low/front,
in conjunction with modest mid-level lapse rates around 6-7 C/km
during the evening, can`t completely rule out a stronger storm or
two if something can develop along or south of the CAPE gradient.
Hail would be the primary hazard given strong capping to surface-
based convection.
Lingering instability falls off Wednesday morning as the post-
frontal atmosphere cools, but large scale troughing with embedded
shortwave energy lingers into Thursday before finally pushing east,
providing lingering shower chances. High pressure finally builds in
for Friday, providing quieter weather. Details become murky for the
weekend into early next week, as upper level ridging to our west
begins to flatten a bit and a series of shortwaves moves through the
flow into our area, providing renewed precipitation chances. Given
placement/timing uncertainty, will stick with the NBM PoPs.
Temperature-wise, highs look to be cooler for Wednesday into Friday,
mainly in the 50s and 60s, before warmer air builds in from the west
again for the weekend and a return to the 70s becomes possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Have continued with very much the same flavor of the previous TAFs
at the airfields, concentrating on good lifting in the afternoon
Tuesday and higher rain chances to pull down the CIGS into MVFR.
Otherwise, isolated storms are possible overnight near or north of
the airfields. For now have included VCSH with low confidence on
the number of storms /probably isolated/ and location /probably
north of airfields/.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Baumgardt
SHORT TERM...Kurz
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
842 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Couple of things to watch. Dewpoints in the 40`s will move into
the far nern plains overnight as a cool front moves in. LBF
sounding did show some mid level instability, thus not impossible
a few nocturnal storms could develop after midnight, over the far
nern plains, where moisture convergence is maximized. Confidence
isn`t high but may include some low pops in case a few do develop.
Meanwhile am concerned about heavy snow potential over the nrn
Foothills Tue night especially above 7500 ft. Wet bulb zero`s
would suggest snow levels may drop down to this level by late
aftn/early evening. Thus may include zn 35 in a watch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
We wound up with a similar wind pattern around Denver yesterday as
the west winds moved off the foothills south of the city and to a
lesser extent across Larimer and much of Weld county, with a swirl
in between. The moist air that had moved into northeast Colorado
is now retreating and being mixed out. Not much happening tonight,
with mild temperatures under mostly cloudy skies. The upper trough
will move east and settle over eastern Colorado by Tuesday morning
with a surface cold front sagging back across the northeast in the
morning. We should see a large area of precipitation develop as
these features sag slowly southward, with help from low level
convergence on the south side and upslope flow behind the frontal
zone.
The main question looks like it will be timing and its effect on
convection. The larger scale models develop the best convection on
the edge of the incoming cool air around midday closer to Denver,
while the latest HRRR has this surge a little slower and has
enough warming to generate storms where this boundary runs into
the foothills in Larimer county during the late morning. In this
scenario, there`s still enough support for storms to move east and
survive for a while in the most but not too cool air. This could
be a favorable environment for marginally severe hail with
800-1000 J/kg of CAPE and strong shear. I wouldn`t count on the
positioning, but the idea of a "warm enough" ribbon for storms
that start along the foothills late morning/midday and move east
does seem feasible. However, there`s a good chance that either the
incoming air really won`t be that buoyant or there will be an
initial surge that comes sooner, and keeps a deeper or cooler
boundary layer that takes the edge off the CAPE. In this scenario
we`d have a messier development of showers and storms that aren`t
tied so much to the boundary/terrain interaction and would quickly
be driven by features aloft. In any event, the thunderstorm part
of this will probably be limited to a few hours and over that
ribbon of not too cool air.
The other big question is the snow level. More on that below, but
it should be pretty high for Tuesday afternoon. Heavy snow could
be starting though with the instability, mainly impacting
backcountry areas of Larimer and Boulder counties in the
afternoon. In the cooler scenarios this could be spreading down
into the foothills towns by the end of the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Widespread precipitation will continue into Tuesday evening and
overnight. A positively tilted 250 mb trough axis will be
centered over the Four Corners region, with most of the area in
the diffluent left exit region of a 120kt jet streak. At the
surface, the cold front should be located just to the south of the
area by the evening hours. Behind this, modest upslope flow will
continue to deepen, with precipitation in the higher terrain
expanding in coverage. Across the plains, there should be a couple
hours in the evening with a little leftover CAPE, especially
across our far south/east... so there could be a few thunderstorms
before transitioning to a more steady, stratiform rain. Trends
today favor a wetter solution for the urban corridor overnight.
While our forecast is an adjustment up across the I-25 corridor
and into the Foothills, it still falls near or even slightly below
some ensemble solutions.
The biggest challenge with tomorrow night`s weather is the
forecast for the Foothills and Front Range mountains. Snow levels
will initially be near 8500 feet or so, before quickly dropping
closer 7000-7500 feet. Confidence is increasing that the upper
half of the foothills could see some accumulating snow... but
there is considerable uncertainty in (1) how low snow levels fall, as
some short range guidance is bullish in lowering snow levels
overnight, (2) how much QPF makes it into the higher elevations,
as the best forcing is east of the higher terrain, and (3) how
well the combination of lower snow levels and favorable QG ascent
overlap. The latest ECM ensemble mean QPF is close to 0.75" of
liquid for Berthoud Pass. HREF probability matched mean QPF is
relatively similar, with the heaviest precipitation totals along
and just east of the Foothills. HREF PMM snowfall through
Wednesday morning is also suggesting widespread totals of 6-12"+
through 12z. Based on these trends we`ve gone ahead and issued a
Winter Storm Watch for our mountain zones with totals over 12"
possible. There could be additional highlights issued for the
Foothills zones as well if temperatures trend a bit cooler... so
stay tuned.
The system will slowly depart Wednesday morning into afternoon as
it craws southward. There`s a good amount of spread in the end
timing of rain/snow, and I adjusted PoPs up a touch during the
early afternoon to account for some of the slower solutions on the
table. We should also see continued cool northerly flow, with the
strongest winds over our far eastern plains. Highs will again be
fairly cool, with most of the plains remaining in the 50s to low
60s.
A much warmer and drier pattern builds back into the region
starting on Thursday, as a strong upper level ridge develops off
the California coast. Warmer air starts to arrive on Thursday with
highs back near or above normal. 700mb temperatures warm back to
about 10C Friday and 12-13C Saturday. With downslope winds favored
in this pattern, we should see highs back in the 70s by Friday
and the low 80s for the start of the weekend. Ridging begins to
break down on Sunday as our next system begins to move in, and
temperatures will likely be a little cooler to end the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 841 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Winds will stay mainly NNW for the next few hours but then
may trend to drainage by 06z. Still expect winds to go
more northerly in the 12z-14z time period on Tue as first
front moves ito the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Widespread precipitation totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are
expected through early Wednesday afternoon. Despite relatively
high QPF, our concern for flooding and flash flooding is low. Over
the burn areas, a good portion of this precipitation falls as
snow, and falls over a long duration, limiting flooding potential.
Rainfall rates are expected to remain below a quarter inch per
hour. There may be some issues with gradual erosion and moving of
sediment in the new burn areas due to the steady rainfall. Flash
Flood guidance over the plains is also high...at 1" in 1 hour and
2-5 inches in 6 hours.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning for COZ033-034.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for COZ035.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad
HYDROLOGY...Hiris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
...Updated for 00z Aviation...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Forecast Highlights:
-- Warm and windy rest of today
-- Chance of showers and storms far north tonight into Tuesday, then
chances sink southward Tuesday night through Wednesday night
-- A few severe storms capable of large hail are possible Tuesday
night
-- Seasonable or a bit above normal mid to late week; drier
Details: GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery shows a longwave
trough moving into the Interior West this afternoon that is helping
the mid-level ridge to become amplified over the region. Ahead of
the longwave, there is a long fetch of southwesterly flow with
clouds from off Baja California to over the Great Lakes. In the
lower levels, our moisture is increasing from the source region of
the Gulf of Mexico with dewpoints into the 50s to near 60 degrees
in a few places in the south. This moisture is following behind a
warm front that has lifted to near the Iowa-Minnesota this
afternoon with a weak surface low analyzed over eastern Nebraska.
Low clouds have been focused over northern Iowa today per GOES-
East Day Cloud Phase RGB, which has kept temperatures down over
that area. Farther south, it has been sunny with the 12z TOP,
OAX, and DVN soundings showing quite a bit of dry air in the low
levels along with an elevated mixed layer (EML). All of this has
helped to limit cloud development. A well mixed boundary layer
developed and has persisted today with mixing up to the EML. There
were several sustained winds and even a gust or two to around
advisory criteria over southern and central Iowa. However, HRRR
and RAP soundings and HREF trends from this morning showed the
sustained winds and gusts decreasing into this afternoon so held
off on the advisory.
The warm front will begin to trek back southward tonight into
northwest and far northern Iowa. This will be in response to a new,
deeper low pressure moving toward Iowa from northeastern
Colorado. In the mid-levels, there will be a lead shortwave trough
ejecting from the longwave trough along with a strengthening low
level jet at 850mb to around 50 knots. The front along with this
forcing and moisture pooling should help to initiate elevated
storms along and north of this boundary. In addition, forecast
soundings show the lowest 1km or so becoming saturated, which may
promote areas of drizzle over the north as well toward Tuesday
morning. South of the front, the cap will prevent storms from
developing over much of our forecast area. Showers and elevated
thunderstorms will remain focused over northern Iowa through much
of the day Tuesday as the boundary wavers little. This will keep
temperatures lower back into the 60s or maybe low 70s. South of
the front, there will be varying levels of sunshine with mid or
high level clouds streaming overhead. Still, temperatures should
make their way well into the 70s to low 80s. In addition, morning
low temperatures will challenge record high lows for both Des
Moines and Waterloo. The boundary will begin to very slowly slip
southeastward Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface low
moves into Iowa and weakens. Elevated storms over northern Iowa
could pose a risk of large hail later Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, but overall areal coverage is disorganized. As a 120 to
130 knot jet streak rounds out of the base of the longwave trough
over Iowa on Wednesday, this should help to develop more showers
and storms along the boundary over central and especially southern
Iowa. The severe risk at the moment is south of the state as the
current forecast has the boundary slipping into Missouri early
Wednesday afternoon. The GFS is slower moving the front south of
the state and develops modest instability of 500 J/kg with high
deep layer shear. This could pose a chance of stronger storms in
the afternoon, but will have to watch how quickly or slowly the
boundary progresses through the state. Temperatures will be cooler
Wednesday than Monday ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s.
This is still a bit above normal for late April.
As a northern stream wave begins to merge with the longwave trough
on Thursday, this will bring an end to the showers and storms. Rain
totals at this point look to be largely below a half an inch and
probably even less than that for most areas. Northwesterly flow will
follow behind the longwave trough and bring cooler, but still
seasonably warm air to the state through the end of the week. As the
northwesterly flow becomes more zonal aloft and low level flow
becomes southwesterly late this week into next weekend, shortwave
ripples will encounter a moistening airmass. A weak boundary may
pass through the state and help to generate a few showers or
storms late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Breezy south winds will diminish after sunset this evening south
of the surface boundary which lies across northern Iowa, with KMCW
receiving northeast winds. Overnight low level jet activity into
the southern portion of the state will create low level wind shear
at KOTM/KDSM/KALO for a few hours overnight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will increase along the front across northern Iowa towards
sunrise Tuesday with MVFR and pockets of IFR cigs possible as the
front drifts south. Initial precipitation on Tuesday will remain
fairly spotty and confined to far northern Iowa, impacting KMCW
first as perhaps light rain or drizzle with thunderstorms activity
possible by midday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at
other sites later in the day beyond the current period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Hagenhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
855 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A surface high pressure ridge axis is draped over the southeastern
coast of the CONUS this evening, and southerly flow over the
forecast area is pushing warm air and higher dewpoints into the
region. That moisture may result in some patchy fog development in
the southeast/Pine Belt in the overnight hours before dawn.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s are expected to surge into the FA after
06Z... and northerly extent of those higher RH values could result
in more patchy fog across the south. However, the guidance has
been lagging in temperatures, and plenty of cloud cover may impede
that development. For now, the HRRR is a little less
aggressive...sticking with that solution, and updating the hourly
grids to reflect a slightly warmer trend. Other than that, no
major updates are expected at this time.
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Tuesday: Mostly thin cirrus continues to stream overhead
overtop the mid level ridge over the MS valley. At the surface, high
pressure center looks to have shifted east into AL with southerly
winds now over the western periphery. These southerly winds will
continue tonight and look to develop some stratus over southwestern
portions where areas of fog look possible over southeast portions
prior to dawn.
Tuesday will be another warm day with southerly winds and mid level
ridge passing overhead, but increased cloud cover in the west may
play a role in preventing maximums from reaching their full
potential. Also, as the mid level ridge axis moves into eastern MS
during the afternoon, a weak mid level shortwave will increase the
low level flow and ascent over western sections. The ascent with
sufficient moisture will be in place over southwest sections for a
few showers to crop up during the heat of the afternoon./GG/
Tuesday Night through Sunday...Ridging aloft and high pressure at
the surface will reside east of the region heading into Wednesday.
Quiet weather will continue to reside across the forecast area.
However, with increasing southerly surface winds, and southwesterly
flow aloft across the region, increasingly warm and humid conditions
will prevail into Thursday as dew points climb into the low and
middle 60s. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will hover in the
middle 80s, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday night in the mid and
upper 60s.
Another system is currently poised to approach and move through the
region Thursday afternoon into Friday. This will bring another
chance of showers to the forecast area mainly during the Thursday
evening and overnight hours into Friday, as a cold front shifts east
through the region. Fortunately at the moment, severe weather
doesn`t look to accompany this system, with even little in the way
of thunder currently expected. Rain chances look to dwindle from
west to east across the CWA through the course of the afternoon and
evening Friday. The weekend currently looks dry across much of the
area, but a stray shower isn`t out of the question across mainly
southern portions of the CWA Saturday. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR in the immediate term, with light winds generally out of the
S/SE as high pressure ridging slides to the east. Return flow will
push higher RH up into the region tonight and through tomorrow.
Early morning fog/vis restriction is expected in the PIB/HBG area
as a result... and the HRRR is more aggressive with vis drops
further north/close to JAN/HKS. Not yet including a mention that
far north...but have dropped PIB/HBG to IFR. Back to VFR for
tomorrow with southerly winds picking up stronger gusts in the
west...as well as a SCT/BKN cu field around 6kft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 58 83 66 86 / 0 7 0 0
Meridian 55 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 59 84 68 87 / 0 17 8 3
Hattiesburg 57 84 65 85 / 0 2 0 0
Natchez 61 84 68 85 / 0 22 11 1
Greenville 59 83 69 84 / 0 6 0 6
Greenwood 59 84 68 85 / 0 3 0 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
HJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
H5 analysis this morning had a broad ridge of high
pressure across the central CONUS. The axis of this ridge extended
from Louisiana north into the eastern Dakotas. Broad southwesterly
flow extended from the ridge axis, west to the Pacific Coast. A
strong shortwave was present over northern California with a trough
extending south toward southern California. Southeast of the trough
axis, 50 to 80 meter HT falls were noted from Nevada, south into
Arizona. A 50 to 70 KT jet streak extended from southern California
into South Dakota and southern North Dakota. At the surface this
afternoon, low pressure was located over northeastern Colorado. A
stationary front was draped across the northern third of the
forecast area. Temperatures were in the upper 60s in far northern
Nebraska with middle 80s in southwestern Nebraska. Winds were light
and variable across the area as of 2 PM CT with wind speeds under 10
MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
H5 flow will continue
to amplify overnight as low pressure deepens over Nevada and
southern California. Downstream of this feature, surface low pressure
will deepen over east central Colorado, then track east along the
Kansas/Nebr. border overnight. By 12z Tuesday, this feature is
expected to be over south central Nebraska. As the low deepens,
increasing northerly winds will force a cold front into the
Sandhills and western Nebraska overnight. On Tuesday, this feature
will migrate slowly east along the KS/Nebr. border, forcing the cold
front through the forecast area by late morning. By afternoon this
feature will end up either along the I70 corridor (12z NAM12 soln)
or US highway 36 in far northern Kansas (12z HRRR soln).
With respect to tonight, upstream amplification of the trough over
the western CONUS will continue tonight. A weak upper level
disturbance will lift east of the northern Rockies later this
evening. As this feature interacts with the surface front, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop late this evening/overnight
hours across northern Nebraska. There is evidence of a capping
inversion, particularly through mid evening which will hinder the
threat for storms initially. This inversion, once eroded, will
allow the possibility for storm development by late evening. Initial
indicators are that storms may be elevated with a hail/wind threat
initially. At this time, the threat appears marginal, given meager
moisture available and bad diurnal timing (ie. overnight). None the
less, have increased the chance for storms overnight in the far
northern forecast area. On Tuesday, as mentioned above, the surface
front will be located over northern Kansas ranging from near I70 or
highway 36 in northern Kansas (mentioned above). As the upper level
trough amplifies further on Tuesday, a lead shortwave will lift into
eastern Colorado late in the day. As this feature interacts with
the surface front, thunderstorms are expected to develop late
Tuesday afternoon INVOF the front. Deep layer shear will be
favorable for severe storms and steering flow will lift any storms
over NW KS and NE Colorado into southwestern Nebraska. With the
surface boundary located off to the south of the area, am expecting
not much of a tornado threat tomorrow afternoon/early evening. This
setup is favorable for hail however with the best threat across our
3 southern most counties. One caveat here however...If the front
becomes established further north Tuesday afternoon, our severe
threat will increase across our far southern zones. Further north
and northwest, more widespread, persistent rainfall will develop in
the post frontal environment Tuesday night. This is in an area of
very favorable mid level lift and plenty of post frontal moisture.
Went ahead and increased pops in the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska Tuesday night. For the southwest, if we cannot realize
precipitation from incoming convection from southwest of the
forecast area, we may not receive much in the way of QPF with this
system.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
The H5 trough will linger
across the forecast area Wednesday before shifting east of the area
Wednesday night. Temperatures INVOF the trough Wednesday will
relatively cool with a continued threat for precipitation. Behind
the exiting trough, ridging will build into the western CONUS, then
transition east later in the week into the weekend. Highs will reach
into the 70s and 80s for Friday through Sunday with Saturday being
the warmest day of the week. A cold front will bring increased
chances for precipitation Sunday night into Monday with highs in the
60s for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
VFR conditions are expected to prevail until around 4-5Z, when
CIGs lower and move north and west central Nebraska into MVFR
conditions. For southwest Nebraska, conditions are expected to
stay in MVFR for the remainder of the TAF period. For north
central however, CIGs are expected to lower further and by 12Z
enter IFR conditions with CIGs near 500ft. As for the precip
chances, they are expected to enter into north central Nebraska
from the NW, and move SE. Chances begin around 5Z for northern
terminals and 14Z for southern terminals. There are chances for a
few t-storms in north central Nebraska, but confidence in direct
impacts to KVTN are low at this time. Winds will generally be from
the north-northwest for most of the forecast period, around 10 to
15 kts. Some locally stronger gusts are possible, up to 25kts,
for the later part of the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Brown/Sinclair