Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/21


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 At 1 PM, skies were sunny across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures ranged from 51 degrees at Medford WI to 66F at Charles City, IA. South winds were in the 20 to 30 mph with wind gusts up to 45 mph. The highest wind gust during the past hour was a 45 mph at Rochester International Airport. Fortunately, the southerly winds are bringing higher dew points into the the area. This is keeping our relative humidities into the 30s and 40s which is helping out our fire weather conditions. As the nocturnal inversion develops this evening, the wind gusts will gradually subside. A cold front will move through the region during the overnight. The HRRR and RAP continue to keep the area dry. Meanwhile, the NAM and other broader scale deterministic models still have some light precipitation. Due to this, kept a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-30s to mid-40s. On Tuesday, moderate cold air advection will be found across the area. As a result, high temperatures will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. West winds will gust into the 25 to 35 mph range. With afternoon humidities in the mid- and upper 20s, elevated fire weather concerns will continue. See the fire weather discussion below. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Dry, cool mid week period with elevated fire wx concerns followed by much warmer temps heading into the weekend. An upper level trough will continue to migrate across the Great Lakes through Thursday ahead of broad ridging set to slide east later in the week. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the west across the Dakotas will slowly approach the Upper MS Valley through Thursday. The airmass will be quite cool and dry with NAEFS precip water and 850 mb temps 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal. With deep diurnal mixing ahead of the surface ridge, winds will also remain gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, elevated fire wx concerns will persist for a good chunk of the week. Highs will be well below average on Wednesday in the 30s for most areas. As the ridge axis slides overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, chilly lows in the teens to low 20s are expected, with even potential for single digits in typical central WI cold spots. The period of cooler temps will be short-lived with strong consensus in the EPS/GEFS for significant warming heading into the weekend. Low level warm advection will develop in earnest with gusty southerly flow on the backside of the departing high on Friday. Broad mid/upper level ridging is expected over the region through the weekend and into early next week with dry weather expected through the weekend. Temps into the 70s appear likely for at least parts of the region during this time. Any consequential rain chances at this time look to hold off until the early to mid portion of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Cigs/WX/vsby: shortwave trough/cold front sliding eastward across the region will bring mostly a mid level (VFR) deck to the local area. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles, but not enough confidence to add to the forecast. Mostly sct-bkn high clouds for Tue afternoon, clearing out in the evening. WINDS: tight pressure gradient will keep winds blustery through late evening, with some decrease as a cold front slides through and swings them to the west/northwest (roughly near/just after 06z). Winds still look to be breezy on Tue, but not nearly as strong as today. Meanwhile, LLWS still a concern tonight through about 08z, mostly for KLSE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through much of this week. Southerly winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph, perhaps with a few higher gusts west of the MS River, will persist through early this evening before slowly weakening with RH recovering overnight. While much cooler temps are expected Tuesday-Thursday, a very dry airmass will spread across the region with minimum RH dipping into the 20 to 35 percent range, with some potential for even lower values in spots, especially on Thursday. Winds will remain gusty through mid-week, particularly on Tuesday, with 20 to 35 mph winds at the top of a relatively well-mixed boundary layer deepening up to 850 to 800 mb. Despite the very dry air, winds will be trend lower by Thursday with the surface ridge axis over the area. Winds will likely increase again out of the south by Friday with only gradual moistening of the airmass. With no significant wetting rains expected this week, the combination of increasingly dry air and gusty winds at times with drying fuels will lead to elevated fire weather conditions through much of the week. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Rieck FIRE WEATHER...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
956 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 ...Updated High Wind Warning to include Scott and Lane Counties... .UPDATE... Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Strong Gusty winds were accompanying a cold front as it moves south across northwest Kansas overnight. North winds gusted to 67 mph briefly behind this cold front as it went through Goodland. Based on the latest RAP boundary layer winds tonight and surface wind gusts forecast by the HRRR the potential for a few gusts of near 60 mph now appear possible for an hour or two behind this front as far west as Scott and Lane counties. These winds will be weakening as they move south but even Garden City, Lakin and Jetmore could have a few wind gusts up to 55 mph between midnight and 4 am. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Deep layer mixing has resulted in strong southwest winds and unseasonably warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s across central and southwest Kansas this afternoon. The strongest winds will diminish somewhat after sunset but will remain gusty in areas toward south central Kansas where a southwesterly low level jet in excess of 50 knots is expected to redevelop this evening. A strong cold front is expected to move into the Syracuse, Scott City and Wakeeney areas by around 11 pm this evening and should be clearing the Oklahoma border by 2-3 am Tuesday morning. A fairly strong but narrow pressure gradient is expected behind the front with a period of gusty north winds. Short term model guidance and MOS generally show winds becoming northerly at 25-35 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph over southwest Kansas. Farther to the east, stronger winds are expected as the models also show a low level northerly jet around 50-55 knots developing immediately behind the front. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the area from Wakeeney and Hays south through Ness City and La Crosse where the strongest winds are expected. The models show the stronger winds diminishing with time overnight as the front moves into south central Kansas. The next shift will need to watch to see if models trend the winds upward farther south but at this time do not think this will be the case. Tuesday will be considerably cooler than today with highs generally in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds will continue to diminish as surface high pressure builds into the region. A broad upper level trough will be moving over the central Plains which will provide some increase in mid/upper level cloudiness. Depending on the cloud cover and winds by late Tuesday night, temperatures could be dipping well into the 20s, especially over the northwest half of the forecast area. We are still at least three weeks from the average last freeze so it is too early for any freeze headlines. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 The weather pattern will become more quiet through the extended period as upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains. Southerly return flow will set up by Thursday as the zonal flow aloft reforms the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Any disturbances in the flow will be minor with only some periodic wind shifts expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Strong southwest winds at 25 to near 30 knots early this evening across southwest Kansas will fall back to around 20 knots after sunset. As the boundary layer wind decouples a 50 knot low level jet is expected to develop for a short period of time between 03z and 06z Tuesday in the 1500 to 2000ft AGL level. A cold front will roll across southwest Kansas between 04z and 10z Tuesday. As this cold front passes the gusty southwest winds will shift to the north and then increase once again into the 25 to near 30 knot range. In the Hays area between wind gusts in excess of 45 knots will be possible at times between 05z and 10z Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Red flag warnings are in effect for the entire CWA after the noon hour through sunset as winds gust out of the southwest up to 40 mph and even higher for short periods of time. The southwest component to the winds will allow for a good downsloping warm flow that will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s for the entire CWA, dropping minimum relative humidity values in the 8-20 percent range west to east across the viewing area. Expect the worst conditions along and west of the Hwy 283 corridor with the strongest winds and lowest humidity values. An approaching cold front will pass through northwest to southeast after sunset through midnight that will abruptly turn the winds out of the northwest continuing to gust up to 30-40 mph throughout the night into Tuesday morning. Expect winds to slowly diminish throughout the day Tuesday before dropping off below 10 mph after sunset and overnight into Wednesday morning as the aforementioned cold front pushes further southeast relaxing the gradient across the CWA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 37 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 36 51 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 36 51 26 55 / 0 10 10 0 LBL 36 54 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 38 53 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 P28 45 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046. && $$ UPDATE...Burgert SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
814 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Although slightly gusty winds will remain possible through the overnight hours (especially across the north), winds have already fallen below hazard thresholds...and will continue to slowly diminish through the night. Thus, allowed the advisory to expire as planned at 02Z. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A shortwave trough currently progressing eastward over the northern Rockies and northern Plains is pushing a cold front through the area as we speak. That front is located in portions of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. The pressure gradient associated with this front is impressive and it has produced wind gusts generally around 45 to 55 mph. The highest gusts have been reported in proximity to the front and warm temperatures are promoting deep surface mixing, which is tapping into even higher wind speeds. By this evening the front should reach the I-70 corridor and continue southeastward overnight. This should spread some of the stronger gusts further south across the forecast area. The winds should overall diminish though later this evening with the exception of some higher elevations. Also, post frontal winds may keep portions of eastern Utah mixed into the overnight hours so it may stay somewhat gusty there too. As that front reaches the northern and central mountains light to moderate snow is expected to start late this evening and continue until late tomorrow morning. Vail Pass to Independence Pass will be the winners with 3-5 inches possible, but 1-3 inches will be more common elsewhere. Cold air advection and orographic lift will favor the northern and northwestern facing slopes, which is where most of the accumulations should occur. There is still quite a bit of disagreement among the short-term models, which may be related to the potential instability. The NAM is indicating more cape than any other guidance, so it`s snowfall totals may be inflated. While the HRRR barely shows much over 3 inches. The current forecast is leaning towards the lower end of guidance. Gusty winds in some of the snow showers could lower visibility locally, and cold air advection could support flash freezing given the warm road temps. These potential impacts might be confined to pass level. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight behind the front, but more noticeable tomorrow as highs drop some 15 to 20 degrees from those found today. Winds will be much less most places except the southern slopes/valleys of the San Juans, which usually increase in the post frontal environment. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure amplifies over the west with temperatures bouncing back on Wednesday from Tuesday`s brief cool snap. Highs expected to be a few degrees below or near seasonable as we still maintain a northwest flow, although conditions will be dry. High pressure shifts eastward, moving overhead by Thursday and Friday, commencing our warming trend towards above normal readings by the latter half of the week into Easter weekend. H7 temps rise to near +8C across much of the region with forecasted highs well into the 70s for many lower valleys, potentially reaching low 80s in the desert canyon country of southeast Utah and possibly into the Grand Valley. These temperatures will be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with some record highs potentially being reached this weekend. The ensemble and deterministic guidance is in excellent agreement with above normal heights, indicating a strong ridge of high pressure maintaining it`s foothold through at least Sunday. There are hints of some transition towards troughiness over the west coast with the Great Basin in some sort of transition zone between the trough and ridge early next week. Still lots of time for models to steer towards a particular solution but for the time being, dry conditions and warm, above normal temperatures dominate the Long Term from Thursday through the weekend. Great time to get outdoors and enjoy the warmth. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 812 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Breezy conditions continue overnight behind the strong cold front. Showers will be possible along the cold front. Lower clouds and light snow could impact KEGE and KASE in the wake of the frontal passage with potential MVFR conditions this evening through late Tuesday morning. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...SS SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
826 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 ...Evening Discussion Update... .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 822 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 As of 8pm, regional radar and SFC obs show the approaching cold front has reached central Nebraska. This is slightly ahead of schedule, and recent short term guidance puts the front into north- central KS as early as 03z/10pm. With the potential for a faster arrival, I decided to start the High Wind Warning a couple hours earlier for our I-70 counties. The HRRR has been nicely handling the speed of the front, and the magnitude of the gusts behind it. I updated the forecast slightly to give more weight to the HRRR. This still points to some 50-65 mph wind gusts along I-70 as the front blows through, which was already handled well by the previous forecast. It should be noted that the wind shift with the cold front will have a significant impact with any ongoing fires across central KS, especially with the wind shift being accompanied by an uptick in wind speeds/gusts. For this reason, the Red Flag Warning will be extended a few hours, primarily to account for the impact of the wind shift. The extension will only be for our central KS counties. Across southern KS, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 10pm as it appears the wind shift will have less of an impact there. Martin && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A strong cold front will race southward across the region tonight with northerly winds spiking up. The combination of increasing 850mb winds and steepening lapse rates just behind the front look to open a 2-4hr window of north winds possibly hitting high wind warning. Therefore we will hoist a High Wind Warning for central Kansas, and extend south central Kansas warning a couple more hours with 1000 meter winds remaining above 70kts. It will be a cool and brisk weather day on Tuesday with colder air and breezy north winds. Surface high pressure will build over the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday with below normal daytime highs. Temperatures will begin to modify and warm on Thursday, as southerly winds return along with downslope effects helping boost temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Other than a weak upper level wave moving across the region on Friday with limited moisture, dry weather will prevail as upper level ridge amplifies for Saturday-Monday. High confidence for a nice warming trend with above normal temperatures this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 822 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 * Strong winds through the night * Wind shift late this evening through tonight Strong and gusty S/SW winds will continue well into the night, with continued gusts of 30-45kt at times. Later this evening, a cold front will plunge southeast through north-central KS with a sudden wind shift and a noticeable increase in wind speeds/gusts. Gusts of 50-55kt will be possible for KRSL/KSLN/KGBD. With time, the magnitude of speeds/gusts will decrease some as the front moves through southern KS, but will still likely lead to a bump up in wind speeds/gusts. Gusty north winds will continue into the day Tuesday before relaxing some by Tuesday evening. Of note, an increased risk of LLWS will occur through late tonight as a strong, low level jet continues to increase across the area, especially central/eastern KS. Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 **Wind shift to impact any residual/ongoing fires across central KS this evening** The very strong south winds will continue through the late evening hours which will keep the grassland fire danger risk at extreme levels. Meanwhile a strong cold front will surge southward across central Kansas after 10pm which will switch winds to the northwest. Any on going fires during the late night hours that are affected by the timing of the cold front could become very problematic. Especially with flanking lines from southerly winds during the after/late evening becoming possible large head fires with the northwest wind direction change. The front appears to be moving in quicker than originally forecast, therefore the Red Flag Warning has been extended until 1 AM CDT for central KS. South winds will increase again for Friday afternoon which looks to elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 44 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 42 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 43 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 46 56 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 47 58 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 38 52 27 56 / 10 0 0 0 Great Bend 39 52 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 41 55 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 41 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 51 62 37 56 / 0 10 10 0 Chanute 50 58 36 55 / 0 10 0 0 Iola 49 57 36 54 / 0 10 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 51 59 37 56 / 0 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052-053- 068>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>050-071-072-094>096-098>100. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053- 067>070-082-083-091>093. High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>050. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>051- 067. && $$ MESOSCALE...RM SHORT TERM...CDJ LONG TERM...CDJ AVIATION...RM FIRE WEATHER...CDJ/RM