Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
At 1 PM, skies were sunny across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures ranged from 51 degrees at Medford WI to 66F at Charles
City, IA. South winds were in the 20 to 30 mph with wind gusts up
to 45 mph. The highest wind gust during the past hour was a 45 mph
at Rochester International Airport. Fortunately, the southerly
winds are bringing higher dew points into the the area. This is
keeping our relative humidities into the 30s and 40s which is
helping out our fire weather conditions.
As the nocturnal inversion develops this evening, the wind gusts
will gradually subside. A cold front will move through the region
during the overnight. The HRRR and RAP continue to keep the area
dry. Meanwhile, the NAM and other broader scale deterministic
models still have some light precipitation. Due to this, kept a 20
to 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid-30s to mid-40s.
On Tuesday, moderate cold air advection will be found across the
area. As a result, high temperatures will range from the mid-40s to
mid-50s. West winds will gust into the 25 to 35 mph range. With
afternoon humidities in the mid- and upper 20s, elevated fire
weather concerns will continue. See the fire weather discussion
below.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Dry, cool mid week period with elevated fire wx concerns followed by
much warmer temps heading into the weekend.
An upper level trough will continue to migrate across the Great
Lakes through Thursday ahead of broad ridging set to slide east
later in the week. At the surface, high pressure centered off to
the west across the Dakotas will slowly approach the Upper MS
Valley through Thursday. The airmass will be quite cool and dry
with NAEFS precip water and 850 mb temps 1 to 2 standard
deviations below normal. With deep diurnal mixing ahead of the
surface ridge, winds will also remain gusty on Tuesday and
Wednesday. As a result, elevated fire wx concerns will persist for
a good chunk of the week. Highs will be well below average on
Wednesday in the 30s for most areas. As the ridge axis slides
overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, chilly lows in the teens
to low 20s are expected, with even potential for single digits in
typical central WI cold spots.
The period of cooler temps will be short-lived with strong consensus
in the EPS/GEFS for significant warming heading into the weekend.
Low level warm advection will develop in earnest with gusty
southerly flow on the backside of the departing high on Friday.
Broad mid/upper level ridging is expected over the region through
the weekend and into early next week with dry weather expected
through the weekend. Temps into the 70s appear likely for at least
parts of the region during this time. Any consequential rain
chances at this time look to hold off until the early to mid
portion of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Cigs/WX/vsby: shortwave trough/cold front sliding eastward across
the region will bring mostly a mid level (VFR) deck to the local
area. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles, but not enough confidence to
add to the forecast. Mostly sct-bkn high clouds for Tue afternoon,
clearing out in the evening.
WINDS: tight pressure gradient will keep winds blustery through late
evening, with some decrease as a cold front slides through and
swings them to the west/northwest (roughly near/just after 06z).
Winds still look to be breezy on Tue, but not nearly as strong as
today.
Meanwhile, LLWS still a concern tonight through about 08z, mostly
for KLSE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through much of this
week.
Southerly winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph, perhaps with a few
higher gusts west of the MS River, will persist through early
this evening before slowly weakening with RH recovering overnight.
While much cooler temps are expected Tuesday-Thursday, a very dry
airmass will spread across the region with minimum RH dipping into
the 20 to 35 percent range, with some potential for even lower
values in spots, especially on Thursday. Winds will remain gusty
through mid-week, particularly on Tuesday, with 20 to 35 mph winds
at the top of a relatively well-mixed boundary layer deepening up
to 850 to 800 mb. Despite the very dry air, winds will be trend
lower by Thursday with the surface ridge axis over the area. Winds
will likely increase again out of the south by Friday with only
gradual moistening of the airmass. With no significant wetting
rains expected this week, the combination of increasingly dry air
and gusty winds at times with drying fuels will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions through much of the week.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Rieck
FIRE WEATHER...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
956 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
...Updated High Wind Warning to include Scott and Lane Counties...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Strong Gusty winds were accompanying a cold front as it moves
south across northwest Kansas overnight. North winds gusted to 67
mph briefly behind this cold front as it went through Goodland.
Based on the latest RAP boundary layer winds tonight and surface
wind gusts forecast by the HRRR the potential for a few gusts of
near 60 mph now appear possible for an hour or two behind this
front as far west as Scott and Lane counties. These winds will be
weakening as they move south but even Garden City, Lakin and
Jetmore could have a few wind gusts up to 55 mph between midnight
and 4 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Deep layer mixing has resulted in strong southwest winds and
unseasonably warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s across
central and southwest Kansas this afternoon. The strongest winds
will diminish somewhat after sunset but will remain gusty in areas
toward south central Kansas where a southwesterly low level jet in
excess of 50 knots is expected to redevelop this evening.
A strong cold front is expected to move into the Syracuse, Scott
City and Wakeeney areas by around 11 pm this evening and should
be clearing the Oklahoma border by 2-3 am Tuesday morning. A fairly
strong but narrow pressure gradient is expected behind the front
with a period of gusty north winds. Short term model guidance and
MOS generally show winds becoming northerly at 25-35 mph with gusts
to 40-50 mph over southwest Kansas. Farther to the east, stronger
winds are expected as the models also show a low level northerly
jet around 50-55 knots developing immediately behind the front.
Have issued a High Wind Warning for the area from Wakeeney and
Hays south through Ness City and La Crosse where the strongest
winds are expected. The models show the stronger winds diminishing
with time overnight as the front moves into south central Kansas.
The next shift will need to watch to see if models trend the winds
upward farther south but at this time do not think this will be
the case.
Tuesday will be considerably cooler than today with highs generally
in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds will continue to diminish as surface
high pressure builds into the region. A broad upper level trough
will be moving over the central Plains which will provide some
increase in mid/upper level cloudiness. Depending on the cloud
cover and winds by late Tuesday night, temperatures could be
dipping well into the 20s, especially over the northwest half of
the forecast area. We are still at least three weeks from the
average last freeze so it is too early for any freeze headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
The weather pattern will become more quiet through the extended
period as upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains.
Southerly return flow will set up by Thursday as the zonal flow
aloft reforms the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Any
disturbances in the flow will be minor with only some periodic
wind shifts expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Strong southwest winds at 25 to near 30 knots early this evening
across southwest Kansas will fall back to around 20 knots after
sunset. As the boundary layer wind decouples a 50 knot low level
jet is expected to develop for a short period of time between 03z
and 06z Tuesday in the 1500 to 2000ft AGL level. A cold front
will roll across southwest Kansas between 04z and 10z Tuesday. As
this cold front passes the gusty southwest winds will shift to the
north and then increase once again into the 25 to near 30 knot
range. In the Hays area between wind gusts in excess of 45 knots
will be possible at times between 05z and 10z Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Red flag warnings are in effect for the entire CWA after the noon
hour through sunset as winds gust out of the southwest up to 40
mph and even higher for short periods of time. The southwest
component to the winds will allow for a good downsloping warm flow
that will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s for the
entire CWA, dropping minimum relative humidity values in the 8-20
percent range west to east across the viewing area. Expect the
worst conditions along and west of the Hwy 283 corridor with the
strongest winds and lowest humidity values. An approaching cold
front will pass through northwest to southeast after sunset
through midnight that will abruptly turn the winds out of the
northwest continuing to gust up to 30-40 mph throughout the night
into Tuesday morning. Expect winds to slowly diminish throughout
the day Tuesday before dropping off below 10 mph after sunset and
overnight into Wednesday morning as the aforementioned cold front
pushes further southeast relaxing the gradient across the CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 36 51 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 36 51 26 55 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 36 54 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 38 53 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 45 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
814 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Although slightly gusty winds will remain possible through the
overnight hours (especially across the north), winds have already
fallen below hazard thresholds...and will continue to slowly
diminish through the night. Thus, allowed the advisory to expire
as planned at 02Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021
A shortwave trough currently progressing eastward over the northern
Rockies and northern Plains is pushing a cold front through the area
as we speak. That front is located in portions of northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. The pressure gradient associated with this front
is impressive and it has produced wind gusts generally around 45 to
55 mph. The highest gusts have been reported in proximity to the
front and warm temperatures are promoting deep surface mixing, which
is tapping into even higher wind speeds. By this evening the front
should reach the I-70 corridor and continue southeastward overnight.
This should spread some of the stronger gusts further south across
the forecast area. The winds should overall diminish though later
this evening with the exception of some higher elevations. Also,
post frontal winds may keep portions of eastern Utah mixed into the
overnight hours so it may stay somewhat gusty there too.
As that front reaches the northern and central mountains light to
moderate snow is expected to start late this evening and continue
until late tomorrow morning. Vail Pass to Independence Pass will
be the winners with 3-5 inches possible, but 1-3 inches will be
more common elsewhere. Cold air advection and orographic lift will
favor the northern and northwestern facing slopes, which is where
most of the accumulations should occur. There is still quite a
bit of disagreement among the short-term models, which may be
related to the potential instability. The NAM is indicating more
cape than any other guidance, so it`s snowfall totals may be
inflated. While the HRRR barely shows much over 3 inches. The
current forecast is leaning towards the lower end of guidance.
Gusty winds in some of the snow showers could lower visibility
locally, and cold air advection could support flash freezing given
the warm road temps. These potential impacts might be confined to
pass level.
Temperatures will be much cooler tonight behind the front, but
more noticeable tomorrow as highs drop some 15 to 20 degrees from
those found today. Winds will be much less most places except the
southern slopes/valleys of the San Juans, which usually increase
in the post frontal environment.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021
High pressure amplifies over the west with temperatures bouncing
back on Wednesday from Tuesday`s brief cool snap. Highs expected to
be a few degrees below or near seasonable as we still maintain a
northwest flow, although conditions will be dry. High pressure
shifts eastward, moving overhead by Thursday and Friday, commencing
our warming trend towards above normal readings by the latter half
of the week into Easter weekend. H7 temps rise to near +8C across
much of the region with forecasted highs well into the 70s for many
lower valleys, potentially reaching low 80s in the desert canyon
country of southeast Utah and possibly into the Grand Valley. These
temperatures will be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with some
record highs potentially being reached this weekend. The ensemble
and deterministic guidance is in excellent agreement with above
normal heights, indicating a strong ridge of high pressure
maintaining it`s foothold through at least Sunday. There are hints
of some transition towards troughiness over the west coast with the
Great Basin in some sort of transition zone between the trough and
ridge early next week. Still lots of time for models to steer
towards a particular solution but for the time being, dry conditions
and warm, above normal temperatures dominate the Long Term from
Thursday through the weekend. Great time to get outdoors and enjoy
the warmth.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 812 PM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Breezy conditions continue overnight behind the strong cold
front. Showers will be possible along the cold front. Lower clouds
and light snow could impact KEGE and KASE in the wake of the
frontal passage with potential MVFR conditions this evening
through late Tuesday morning.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SS
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
826 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
...Evening Discussion Update...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 822 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
As of 8pm, regional radar and SFC obs show the approaching cold
front has reached central Nebraska. This is slightly ahead of
schedule, and recent short term guidance puts the front into north-
central KS as early as 03z/10pm. With the potential for a faster
arrival, I decided to start the High Wind Warning a couple hours
earlier for our I-70 counties. The HRRR has been nicely handling the
speed of the front, and the magnitude of the gusts behind it. I
updated the forecast slightly to give more weight to the HRRR. This
still points to some 50-65 mph wind gusts along I-70 as the front
blows through, which was already handled well by the previous
forecast.
It should be noted that the wind shift with the cold front will have
a significant impact with any ongoing fires across central KS,
especially with the wind shift being accompanied by an uptick in
wind speeds/gusts. For this reason, the Red Flag Warning will be
extended a few hours, primarily to account for the impact of the
wind shift. The extension will only be for our central KS counties.
Across southern KS, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire
at 10pm as it appears the wind shift will have less of an impact
there.
Martin
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
A strong cold front will race southward across the region tonight
with northerly winds spiking up. The combination of increasing 850mb
winds and steepening lapse rates just behind the front look to open
a 2-4hr window of north winds possibly hitting high wind warning.
Therefore we will hoist a High Wind Warning for central Kansas, and
extend south central Kansas warning a couple more hours with 1000
meter winds remaining above 70kts.
It will be a cool and brisk weather day on Tuesday with colder air
and breezy north winds. Surface high pressure will build over the
region for Tuesday night into Wednesday with below normal daytime
highs. Temperatures will begin to modify and warm on Thursday, as
southerly winds return along with downslope effects helping boost
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Other than a weak upper level wave moving across the region on
Friday with limited moisture, dry weather will prevail as upper
level ridge amplifies for Saturday-Monday. High confidence for a
nice warming trend with above normal temperatures this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 822 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
* Strong winds through the night
* Wind shift late this evening through tonight
Strong and gusty S/SW winds will continue well into the night, with
continued gusts of 30-45kt at times. Later this evening, a cold
front will plunge southeast through north-central KS with a sudden
wind shift and a noticeable increase in wind speeds/gusts. Gusts of
50-55kt will be possible for KRSL/KSLN/KGBD. With time, the
magnitude of speeds/gusts will decrease some as the front moves
through southern KS, but will still likely lead to a bump up in wind
speeds/gusts. Gusty north winds will continue into the day Tuesday
before relaxing some by Tuesday evening. Of note, an increased risk
of LLWS will occur through late tonight as a strong, low level jet
continues to increase across the area, especially central/eastern KS.
Martin
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
**Wind shift to impact any residual/ongoing fires across central
KS this evening**
The very strong south winds will continue through the late evening
hours which will keep the grassland fire danger risk at extreme
levels. Meanwhile a strong cold front will surge southward across
central Kansas after 10pm which will switch winds to the
northwest. Any on going fires during the late night hours that are
affected by the timing of the cold front could become very
problematic. Especially with flanking lines from southerly winds
during the after/late evening becoming possible large head fires
with the northwest wind direction change. The front appears to be
moving in quicker than originally forecast, therefore the Red Flag
Warning has been extended until 1 AM CDT for central KS.
South winds will increase again for Friday afternoon which looks to
elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 44 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 42 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 43 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 46 56 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 47 58 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 38 52 27 56 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 39 52 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 41 55 29 57 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 41 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 51 62 37 56 / 0 10 10 0
Chanute 50 58 36 55 / 0 10 0 0
Iola 49 57 36 54 / 0 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 51 59 37 56 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052-053-
068>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>050-071-072-094>096-098>100.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>093.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>050.
Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>051-
067.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RM
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ/RM