Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/28/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1037 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Incoming trough from the west will bring continued shower chances into the evening, with the highest chances near and north of I-90 where mid-level frontogenesis will be strongest. As the trough pushes through, northwest winds will become quite gusty in cold air advection, with some gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible this evening given around 25 kts to mix down and steep lapse rates per model soundings. Falling temperatures may cause rain to change over to snow showers in Clark/Taylor counties late this evening. Accumulations look light, but WPC 90th percentile is up to a little over an inch at Medford, so a few slick roads are possible. Lingering precipitation should push east of the area by shortly after midnight, with clearing skies and lows in the 20s and low 30s. The RAP does suggest low-level saturation and clouds could linger until morning, however, so will have to keep an eye on clearing trends. Surface and upper level ridging build in for Sunday, bringing a drier and sunnier day to the area. While the pressure gradient relaxes as the day goes on, steep low-level lapse rates should allow a fair amount of mixing and could keep some gusts in the 20-25 mph range into the afternoon, especially east of the Mississippi River. This could lead to elevated fire weather conditions, as discussed in the fire weather section of the AFD. Although the day looks sunny, cold air aloft will likely hold highs down into the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Sunday Night into Monday...Warm advection returns later in the day Sunday and really maximizes in the morning hours Monday as southwest winds increase in a strong pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. 850 mb temperatures increase 15-17C from Sunday to Monday afternoon for a big warm up. This strong warm advection aloft will cap the mixing extent on Monday somewhat, but consensus in a well-agreed upon synoptic regime, still mixes to about 850 mb. This is troublesome with model consensus 50-55kt speeds at 850mb by later Monday afternoon. It looks like a Wind Advisory will be needed for most of the area ahead of the cold front into early evening. These winds have implications for fire spread, which is handled below in the fire weather discussion section. Monday night through Wednesday...The polar cold front then blasts through on Monday night with cold advection in earnest Tuesday, with a reinforcing arctic front shifting through Wednesday. Some precipitation/showers may be on the cold front and have chances of rain Monday night. Have lowered temperatures for these days with 40s and 30s expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Afternoon gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range will make these days, especially Wednesday, feel quite cool. Thursday through Saturday...offer large scale ridge building and a slow warming with 70F possible for Saturday! && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A band of light precipitation precipitation will continue to push out of the area early in the TAF period. KRST and KLSE have MVFR ceilings, however these should improve to VFR fairly quickly early this morning. Northwest winds 10 to 20kts with gusts 20 to 30kts this morning. The winds will remain brisk Sunday, decreasing to under 12Kts by late in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Sunday: Steep lapse rates will allow for afternoon deep mixing which will likely allow dry air and gusty winds from aloft to mix down. Have trended below the NBM for dewpoints during the afternoon, especially in the favored areas of central Wisconsin, where minimum relative humidities could approach 25-30 percent. In fact, with mixing to around 850 mb possible, dewpoints could be even lower than forecast area-wide which would lead to RHs approaching 25-30 percent over a wider area. Combined with wind gusts of around 20 to 25 mph, this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, although recent rain should help with slightly less dry vegetation. Monday certainly called for additional analysis as winds are expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph sustained range with gusts 40-50 mph possible. Deeper mixing in the afternoon, in combination with increasing winds, presents some favorable conditions for fire spread. Consensus in the model guidance suggests this southerly flow will bring some moisture return with it Monday, lifting relative humidities into the 30s percent. With warm air increasing aloft, mixing depths should be somewhat capped providing a bit of a floor to lower dewpoints and RH dropping due to mixing. Even though high temperatures will reach the 60s, a min RH of 25% or less for critical fire spread conditions/and a Fire Weather Watch/ seems to be a low probability event for Monday at this time. However, this forecast did take a baby step toward critical conditions. Thus, elevated /but not critical/ fire spread weather is still expected. Tuesday and Wednesday will be much cooler with high temperatures in the 40s and 30s respectively. Afternoon winds will be gusty again (25 to 30 mph), and RH values will need to be monitored and are currently forecast in the 25-35 percent range. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Baumgardt AVIATION...Zapotocny FIRE WEATHER...Lee/Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak stationary front will remain over the northern Midlands tonight. A strong cold front brings a chance for thunderstorms Sunday. Following cooler temperatures and ridging Monday, another chance of rain moves in Tuesday and later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A surface boundary from convection has sagged into the northern Midlands this evening. This will stall out overnight, then move back north as a weak front towards morning. There remains some showers and isolated storms, both across portions of NC, the upstate of SC, and eastern Ga. This should slowly diminish with the loss of heating, and the severe threat is minimal with this activity. Later tonight, a weak shortwave will push into the area which may generate some additional showers or possibly elevated thunderstorms, especially in the western forecast area around or shortly after midnight. Any lingering convection should dissipate by sunrise. Lows remain mild, in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday and Sunday night...Active weather is expected as a deep upper trough moves eastward through the Ohio Valley as a surface low lifts northeastward into southeast Canada. This will push a cold front across the Appalachians during the afternoon hours, eventually crossing the forecast area Sunday evening. Ahead of the front, the forecast area will be well within the warm sector starting off the day very mild in the mid to upper 60s. Strong southwesterly flow is expected to result in deep mixing through the early afternoon prior to the arrival of the cold front and associated convection which should support high temperatures well into the 80s across most of the forecast area with upper 80s in the southeastern Midlands and lower CSRA. Depending on how fast clouds and precipitation arrive into the western Midlands it could impact the highs there which may be closer to the lower to mid 80s. Wind field will be increasing with the approach of the upper trough and cold front and the deep mixing should also result in windy conditions at the surface with winds 15 to 25 mph common with gusts over 30 mph. Will issue a lake wind advisory for winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots. There continues to be a threat of severe weather with SPC outlooking the area in a slight risk for severe storms with damaging winds as the primary threat, and to a lesser extent large hail. The pre-storm environment will feature strong shear in excess of 50 knots which will support organized storms along the cold front. While temperatures will be quite warm the deep mixing will actually limit the instability a bit with forecast MLCAPE values less than 500 J/kg and SBCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg. Despite the limited instability the strong shear and expected cold pool dominated convection along the front should be enough to bring the threat into our area. The bulk of the upper forcing will be off to the north so the northern and western Midlands are the areas most likely to experience severe winds with a lower threat to the south and east, but not ruling it out there. Latest hi-res guidance shows general agreement on timing with the NSSL WRF, ARW, NMM all bringing a line of convection into the western Midlands around 20z while the HRRR is faster by a couple of hours bringing it into the western Midlands by 18z. Expect the line of storms to continue to push eastward through the region and exiting the forecast area during the 00z-03z time frame. Increased pops to likely across the region with the passage as measurable rainfall seems likely. The front will shift east of the region overnight with cold advection supporting overnight lows about 20 degrees colder than tonight ranging from the lower to mid 40s west to upper 40s east. Monday and Monday night...High pressure will continue to build over the area with generally zonal westerly 500mb flow aloft. This should provide a relief from some of the 80 degree days of late as 850mb temps will be around +4C to +6C yielding high temperatures ranging through the mid and upper 60s, despite plenty of sunshine. A weak upper disturbance along the western Gulf Coast region will lift northeastward into the southeastern states Monday night with some increasing clouds overnight. Think there may be too much dry air to overcome to result in any measurable precipitation through 12z Tuesday but ensemble guidance suggesting it is not out of the question so will carry some low pops to account for that. Overnight lows will be limited by increasing clouds and expect lows in the mid 40s north to around 50 south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extended forecast features active weather early in the period followed by a significant cool down late in the week into the weekend. A weak upper disturbance will cross the area on Tuesday in advance of a digging upper trough over the middle of the country. Deep southwesterly mid level flow will persist over the region through Wednesday night until the upper trough swings through the region. In the lower level southeasterly to southerly flow will provide continued moisture transport into the region which will keep chances of rain in the forecast. While thunderstorms are possible the chances of severe weather look limited at this time given marginal instability, despite strong wind fields Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There is some uncertainty about possible wedge conditions developing on Tuesday as the surface high shifts east into the Atlantic but temperatures will be dependent on how strong it may be. Temperatures should warm well back into the 70s on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through late Wednesday night. Much cooler, below normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday with possible frost/freeze concerns both nights. Some air mass modification should result in warmer temperatures on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR expected overnight, MVFR possible with afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow towards the end of the TAF period. Warm southwest flow is established across the forecast area beneath a stationary front draped across the Piedmont and ahead of an approaching cold front dropping out of the Appalachians towards the end of the forecast period. Upper level trough will cross from west to east between 03-10Z with enough instability to spark isolated showers...VCSH reflected in TAFs. Tempo MVFR is possible, but confidence not high enough to include. Other then that, instability and a decent pressure gradient will keep winds between 5-8 knots, so we do not expect any MVFR-IFR visibility restrictions in mist/fog. Pressure gradient on Sunday ahead of the approaching front will strengthen, with southwesterly gusts 20-25 kts expected after 14-15Z. Convective tools indicate high potential for thunder, and VCTS indicated in TAFs as a strong cold front approaches 20-21Z, passing through between 29/00-02Z. Timing and severity will be refined in the next few TAF cycles. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Cooler high pressure building in will result in no restrictions Monday through Tuesday. Onshore flow and another approaching frontal system will result in aviation weather restrictions Wednesday into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall in the Upper Savannah, Broad, Catawba and Pee Dee Basins over the past 24 hours is moving southward into area rivers. Flooding is occurring on Midland and Pee Dee rivers. For the latest river flood warnings, see our web page at && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
929 PM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .DISCUSSION... EVENING UPDATE: Minimal changes to the forecast. With fire weather concerns due to low relative humidity and gusty winds, the relative humidity was nudged slightly down by blending with the HRRR for Sunday. Winds begin to ramp up Sunday and stay up through Monday. Wind gusts during this timeframe were also nudged up. The Red Flag Warning and the High Wind Watch are still expected. Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: After the dense freezing fog from this morning lifted and burned off, temperatures warmed back up into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The stage seems to be set for some differently impactful weather conditions over the next 2 to 3 days. Sunday, a ridge of high pressure from the west and southwest will bring some suddenly warm temperatures and dry humidity to the area. The pressure gradient is tightly packed and some pretty gusty winds are expect to accompany that ridge. Current Red Flag Warning seems well in hand. More discussion below. On Monday, a strong cold front, packed with unusually gusty winds is expected to move through the region, beginning early Monday morning. The expected snow shower activity accompanying this cold front could easily enhance the wind gusts. A little uncertainty remains with extensive cloud cover, so we felt it was best to lead out with a High Wind Watch for now, which could be upgraded or cancelled based on the latest model information coming up tonight and tomorrow. The cold front looks to be quite pronounced. Some snow showers with accumulations up to half and inch are possible. Lingering cold and breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday. From Wednesday afternoon onward, a more stead ridge of warm, high pressure settles into the region. && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR LLWS: Possible this morning before winds begin ramping up after sunrise. DISCUSSION: High clouds and generally dry weather expected. Windy conditions are expected over the next couple days. Cloud cover begins to increase Sunday night. WINDS: Light and variable tonight, then from the south and southwest on Sunday morning up to 15 kts. Expect west winds by mid day up to 30 kts at times lasting through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected on Sunday along with increasing west winds. The combination of low relative humidity, as low as 12 percent, and gusty winds up to 45 mph, will lead to high fire danger from early Sunday morning through at least the early Monday evening. Any fire starts will spread rapidly toward the east in these conditions. Strong winds are expected at times Sunday night into Monday as well, but the fire danger should begin to subside as cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and rain and snow showers enter into the region. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for MTZ120-122-134>137. High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield... McCone...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum... Prairie...Richland...Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1046 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross Tennessee tonight then cross our area around midday to early afternoon Sunday. This front will be preceded by another round of thunderstorms. Behind the front, temperatures will return to normal as high pressure builds in for Monday. More unsettled weather looks to be in store for the region by the middle of the week as another strong cold front reaches our region from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1030 pm: Isolated to widely scattered convection continues to fire in the vicinity of an outflow boundary across the Lakelands and upper Savannah River Valley region. However, the combination of relatively stable outflow air and nocturnal cooling has shoved much of the appreciable surface-based instability southwest of the forecast area, and convection has therefore become increasingly benign, with even lightning becoming increasingly difficult to come by. Meanwhile, scattered to numerous convective coverage continues across middle and east Tennessee, but with the exception of a right-move that fell apart across the TN mtns, this activity has been consistently streaming northwest west of the Appalachians. As such, while isolated to widely scattered convection may initiate off and on throughout the night across out forecast area, coverage should remain relatively muted and intensity quite benign until the cold front sweeps in from the west after sunrise. Considering the continued poor antecedent hydro conditions across esp the NC mtns, can`t completely rule out a localized hydro problem overnight if cells are able to train over the same area, but even those concerns should largely hold off until ~late Sunday morning. In term of the cold front and anticipated accompanying convective band, some timing discrepancies are noted in the hires models with the HRRR abt 3 hrs ahead of the 4km NAM. This would make a big difference as to available sbCAPE, but for now, believe the pre-storm environment will feature sbCAPE values on the order of 800-1200 J/kg. Shear levels will also begin to increase and the timing of the strongest shear still looks to be a little quicker than the best destabilization, but enuf overlap is anticipated for a line of stg/svr organized storms beginning before noon and traversing east thru the afternoon. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail, however, a few tornadoes are not out of the question as well with right turning hodos noted in the model soundings while a llvl jet increases. There could be another convective watch issued by the SPC for tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: High pressure will begin to build into the area Sunday leading to more tranquil conditions through Monday night. Moisture will begin to return to the area by Tuesday as the high moves of the east coast and return flow sets up. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s in the Piedmont and mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 pm EDT Saturday: A broad trof will dig into the middle of the country for the middle of the week, shifting into the northeastern states by late week. Expect showers and some thunderstorms for our area Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will move through bringing much cooler conditions into the area on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures at or below freezing appear possible Friday morning across the forecast area. Since the frost/freeze program will begin again on April 1 for northeast Georgia, the SC foothills and Piedmont and the southern NC foothills and Piedmont, headlines may be needed Friday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Convective coverage has diminished this evening to just a couple of isolated cells near KGMU/KGSP. Once this activity clears those two terminals, additional development overnight doesn`t appear likely, especially in light of the cooler/ relatively stable air that has overspread the Terminal Forecast Area in the wake of this afternoon`s convection. Nevertheless, chances are sufficient to include a VCSH for much of the overnight at all terminals. Confidence is low regarding cig/visby trends overnight, as cool/relatively stable air mass gradually becomes displaced by one with higher surface dewpoints. Confidence is relatively high in low cigs...IFR or worse developing near KHKY, but confidence decreases farther south, and will generally feature MVFR conditions developing at the other sites. Shower/tstorm chances increase again from late Sunday morning into the afternoon, warranting at least Prob30s for TSRA at the terminals. Winds will generally remain light NE at most locales this evening, but gradually return to the SW late tonight. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts by late Sunday morning, with gusts as high as 30 kts possible during the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conds return Mon with a couple more moist systems and flight restrictions possibly affecting the region as early as Tue. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 100% Med 79% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 84% Med 79% High 98% KAVL High 92% High 100% High 98% High 97% KHKY High 100% High 82% Med 70% High 82% KGMU High 100% High 87% Med 75% High 98% KAND High 100% High 100% Med 69% High 90% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ033-048>053- 058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...JDL
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1115 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 The heavy rain has been slow to lift out of Tennessee all evening, but now appears to be making a more believable push north into eastern Kentucky. Given the increasing moisture convergence ahead of the approaching cold front and jet dynamics there is concern for flash flooding in the watch area and especially for locations nearer the Tennessee border. The IR sat loop shows a continuing mass of cooling cloud tops in north central Tennessee that seems to now be edging north. The window for this excessive rain threat is primarily from midnight through 8 am before the front will progressively send the heavier rains east of the area. Have updated the QPF and PoPs for the rest of the night with another 2+ inches anticipated along the Tennessee border and in places that saw soaking rains earlier in the day. Advisories and warnings will become increasingly likely over the next few hours for these location. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 23z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west with a boundary lifting into eastern Kentucky. So far the stronger storms have been having trouble crossing the Kentucky border and sustaining themselves. Expect that to be the case for the next hour or so, but see better prospects later this evening as the low moves in. The latest HRRR run, among other CAMs, support this idea, as well. Have drawn the updated PoPs with that in mind. The southern parts of the area remain under the gun for heavy rain with the northern areas likely seeing more progressive bouts of convection after midnight. Will keep a close eye out for our southern counties in the watch for flood issues through the evening as the training potential is highest there. Otherwise, temperatures are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with dewpoints well into the mid and upper 50s across the area. Meanwhile, winds are generally from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Also, applied the latest obs and trends into the T/Td grids with this update. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the ZFP and SAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the vicinity of Cuba and extends northeast into the Atlantic and southwest toward the Yucatan while another ridge was centered over the eastern Pacific. In between an upper level ridge axis extended from the Hudson Bay region into the northern Plains/upper midwest to the southern Rockies/Plains. At the surface, a nearly stationary frontal zone was south of the region extending from the mid south region across the TN Valley to the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a sfc low was moving into the MS Valley in the eastern IA vicinity with a cold front trailing south and southwest to the southern Plains. A secondary cold front extended into the upper midwest to northern Plains. Cloud cover from earlier convection has limited solar insolation across the area, especially central to southern sections with convection largely occurring south of the area closer to the nearly stalled boundary. Some showers are still moving across the southern counties, however. Tonight, the upper level shortwave trough will approach the area tonight, while the sfc low track across the Great Lakes and the trailing cold front nears eastern KY. The cold front should move east of the area on Sunday morning while the secondary front should work across the area Sunday afternoon along with the shortwave trough axis. Height rises will follow to end the period on Monday night. PW will increase this evening into tonight into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range in advance of the cold front. Warm advection/isentropic lift should bring an increase in shower activity from southwest to northeast as the evening progresses with the convection lingering overnight ahead of the cold front. MUCAPE is progged to increase to 500 J/kg to perhaps as much as 750 J/kg during the evening while bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 50KT or so. At the same time, mid level lapse rates may near or exceed 7C/km as well for a time during the evening. This scenario should lead to generally elevated storms, especially across the southwest portion of the area, with heavy rain rates and the risk for hail, possibly near the quarter size mark. Strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Wind gusts appear more probable with prefrontal convection late tonight to perhaps early on Sunday in the far southeast. Locally heavy rain appears to be a higher threat for this during the overnight or predawn hours. With heavy rain having fallen across the flood watch area from Pulaski to Letcher county earlier today, soils there are saturated or nearing saturation. Tonight into Sunday, an additional 1 to 2 inches is expected on average generally south of the Mountain Parkway with the higher amounts in the watch area. Most of it should fall tonight. Locally higher amounts near 3 inches cannot be ruled out in the watch area. The most recent trends and guidance continue to support the current areal extent of the Flood Watch. The coverage of showers should diminish on Sunday morning as the front departs, but a couple of additional showers cannot be ruled out in the afternoon until the shortwave trough and secondary boundary move across the area. Depending on how much rain falls tonight into early Sunday, rises on creeks and area rivers to bankfull or into flood in some instances may occur on Sunday. Portions of the Cumberland or Kentucky Rivers may run high through Sunday night. Otherwise, high pressure will usher a drier and colder airmass into the region behind the front. Temperatures should fall well into the 30s if not upper 20s in some cases with frost likely developing in many areas. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 The primary forecast issue in the extended will much colder temperatures and the potential for frost. In fact, we will likely see several nights and early mornings when widespread frost occurs around eastern Kentucky. The nights with best frost potential will be Sunday night, Thursday night, and Friday night. On each of those night, colder air will be filtering into the area behind departed, strong areas of low pressure, and those systems surface cold fronts. The coldest spots will be our normally colder valleys. A few of our eastern valleys may even see some frost Monday night. We will see a chance of rain and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Thursday evening. Enough cold air will make its way into the area late Wednesday night. Little or no snow accumulation is expected with this. Once the precip comes to an end early Thursday morning, we should see an extended period of dry weather across eastern Kentucky. The coldest nights will see lows plummeting into the 20s and lower 30s. The other nights should see closer to normal values in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Daily highs will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s Thursday and Friday. The warmest day will be Tuesday, when highs may reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. The other days of the week will have max temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Additional showers/thunderstorms will develop more northeastward across the region later this evening, bringing times of MVFR and IFR conditions, particularly after 06z. Mainly MVFR conditions should then prevail after 09z near and after the boundary passes. Winds are expected to be south to southwest mainly in the 5 to 10 kt range through 06z, with some higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Winds become more southwesterly between 06 and 12z - increasing to near 10 kts, before becoming west to northwest Sunday morning. Gusts up to 20 kts are possible Sunday afternoon. Additionally, winds aloft will increase ahead of the front this evening and a threat of LLWS will exist from now into mid morning Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ079-080-083>088-113- 115>118. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1038 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 ...Updated Mesoscale Discussion... .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The convection along the cold front in MO/IL/IN has had some surges and fluctuations in strength, but over the last 30 minutes or so, regional radars have shown signs of cores weakening aloft across most of the line in IL/MO. High-res guidance implies that this line should steadily weaken as it approaches from the west, but we may see additional cellular convection fire off ahead of it. Overall environment is quite strong with shear though very limited with instability, but there may be enough CAPE to support some strong to isolated severe storms as it pushes through. Think the strong/severe storm threat with that line will be mainly confined to southern IN and northern KY as convective debris with storms across TN/AR will likely negatively impact mid-level lapse rates for ongoing showers/storms in southern IL and eastern MO. Meanwhile, the convection to our south will begin moving into southern KY here shortly. The 00z sounding from OHX revealed quite a bit of stable air in the lowest ~5kft, and recent high-res CAMs suggest that we won`t see much air mass recovery across northern TN and southern KY for much of the overnight hours. As a result, think our wind/tornado severe chances across southern KY have diminished quite a bit, and unless we see a big surge of warmer air and dewpoints ahead of developing convection it seems unlikely it would become surface based. The bigger concern with convection overnight across southern KY will be flash flooding. Still appears that areas within the flash flood watch will see one to three inches of rain with locally higher amounts. The KY mesonet shows our southern tier of KY counties within the flash flood watch have already seen a half inch to nearly an inch of rain so far today. 1/3hr FFG across portions of Lake Cumberland are in the 1.5-2" range, so if the forecast amounts verify, we are likely to have some flooding issues early tomorrow morning. Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Monitoring two areas of convection at this hour that will have impacts for the overnight period. The first is along an old stationary front/outflow boundary that stretches from northeastern TX into northern TN. The second is along a cold front currently stretching from central IL into southeastern OK. Showers and storms along the stationary front/outflow boundary have already drifted into southern KY at this hour. A quick look at the environment/mesoanalysis reveals that instability is at a relative minimum along and east of I-65, while it increases steadily as you head west. This is largely due in part to weaker mid level lapse rates from clouds/convective debris earlier in the day that drifted into central/eastern Kentucky. Storms that have also pushed east of the I-65 corridor in southern Kentucky have also tended to weaken and fall apart, which makes sense given the lack of `fuel` storms have to work with to the east. Over the next several hours, we will see showers and storms increase in coverage as they fire off along the stationary front/outflow boundary to our south. Latest high-res model runs have shown a slight northern trend with the heaviest QPF axis, and now have it crossing into portions of south-central and eastern Kentucky. The flash flood watch was expanded earlier in the day to account for this potential, and so far looks good. Will monitor for any westward expansion if trends continue, though think it`s current placement will handle the bulk of things. The severe weather threat remains complicated overnight. As the cold front approaches from the west, we could see instability slightly increase across the region as a +50kt LLJ noses into western and central Kentucky and increases low level moisture/Td`s. But, it`s possible that convection to our south in TN/AR/AL could disrupt some of that moisture transport northward and hamper storms currently along the cold front. Some of the latest HRRR runs show this scenario playing out with the convection along the cold front weakening as it pushes into southern IN and central KY due to very weak instability. Perhaps a more concerning signal to watch will be near the Lake Cumberland region, where an organized cluster or line of storms coming out of TN with access to limited instability but a lot of shear could result in a low-end wind and tornado threat. In summary, think the best chances for flooding and severe weather will be across southern KY tonight into early tomorrow morning, though portions of central KY and southern IN could see some isolated strong to severe storms as well. Most activity looks to push east of the region by sunrise. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 ...Slight Risk for Severe Storms Tonight... Low pressure is analyzed over eastern Iowa this afternoon, and a warm front remains draped across the Tennessee Valley. Persistent, moderate isentropic lift and moisture transport across this boundary has fueled numerous showers and storms across TN today. The persistent convection has produced 0.50-1.00 inches of rain across southern KY, including some areas with relatively low FFG (<2" in 3 hours). Given the arrival of record PW values tonight and the likelihood of additional convection, will expand the Flash Flood Watch slightly. The sprawling convection across TN certainly seems to be impeding destabilization to the north over central KY. Occasional precipitation, plenty of clouds, and rain-cooled outflow pushing north will likely continue to affect the northward extent of appreciable CAPE this afternoon and evening. HRRR and other hi-res models keep convection to a minimum over central KY through sunset. Tonight, a positively-tiled upper level trough swings over the Upper Midwest and mid-Mississippi Valley. This finally helps induce a stronger low-level response by 06-12z Sunday with sfc cyclogenesis over Michigan. The southwesterly LLJ steadily increases in intensity this evening and overnight ahead of the approaching trough. Currently have 30 kts at 850 mb over Mississippi and southwest TN, but values of 40-50 kts will develop over the area by 03-06z tonight. Between 00-03z this evening, the best chance for scattered storms is in southern KY within the warm conveyor belt. Around and after midnight, convection will increase in coverage as the cold front begins to approach from the west. A narrow plume of MLCAPE >= 500 J/kg seems probable ahead of the cold front, but the degree of destabilization remains the biggest limiting factor in the overall severe threat. A high shear, low CAPE environment will likely emerge ahead of a quasi-linear convective system with damaging winds as the primary threat. There is also a risk for QLCS tornadoes, which are typically very quick to develop and as quick to dissipate. The main time frame of concern is roughly 11 pm - 6 am EDT, but instability may already be nil by 6 pm (depending on prior development and evolution upstream). Still like the Slight Risk from SPC, and it`s more of a Marginal threat from Lexington northward in the Bluegrass region where moisture return and destabilization are both weaker. Showers continue over the eastern forecast area Sunday morning, with dry conditions expected area-wide in the afternoon. Sunday looks windy and cool with temperatures generally in the 50s. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 To start the extended period, expect to find upper level trough exiting off to the east as upper level ridging moves across the central CONUS. At the surface, area of high pressure will drift across the OH Valley Monday and move just off the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Mostly dry weather will prevail Monday and most of Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s and then warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Tuesday as we move into deeper southerly flow on the backside of the high. By Tuesday evening, a large upper trough will be progressing across the central CONUS with an associated surface low rotating northward into the Hudson Bay. Expect trailing N-S oriented cold front to push through the OH Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing increasing chances for precipitation. Compared to tonight`s system, the influx of moisture ahead of the front Tuesday night is expected to be weaker, with PWATs currently progged to top out in the 1.0 - 1.2 inch range. GEFS and EPS members suggest QPF values ranging from T - 1.0 inch across the area with mean values in the 0.2 - 0.4 inch range which corresponds well with WPC QPF. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will build in from the northwest and dominate our weather through the end of the work week. WPC Cluster Analysis shows good agreement between models on this with all four clusters suggesting dry conditions for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain cooler on Thursday under steady northerly flow and CAA, with highs topping out in the 40s. Additionally, low temperatures Thursday and Friday morning are forecast to drop into the 20s and may see some frost. Temperatures will then gradually moderate into the weekend with highs reaching into the 60s again by Saturday. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 658 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A cold front will move through the region overnight, and showers/storms are expected to form ahead of it. Cigs/Vis will likely drop into the MVFR range with isolated instances of LIFR/IFR in heavier showers/storms. Gusty, variable winds are also possible within the vicinity of thunderstorms. The precipitation should push east of the region after sunrise, but MVFR cigs will persist into the early afternoon hours before finally beginning to lift and break up. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ073>078-081-082. && $$ Mesoscale...DM Short Term...EBW Long Term...JML Aviation...DM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
856 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .UPDATE... 855 PM CDT Any strong thunderstorm potential in the southern forecast area has now ended. A cold front is moving eastward through the CWA, with the front positioned not far east of I-39 as of 830 PM. Ahead of this front remains showers in the southeast CWA within broad upper-mid level forcing for ascent (95 kt 500 mb jet), an 850-700 mb zone of moisture transport, and low-level confluence. Isolated lightning remains possible until 10 or 11 PM south of the Kankakee River Valley but dwindling fast as the steeper lapse rates disappear with the moistening. There also have been scattered showers immediately ahead of the front, but these cores have been small and are diminishing in coverage. The true cold advection push lags the cold front some and is just arriving over the Mississippi River. As this expands eastward, winds will become more northwesterly and increase in speed. Still forecasting gusts of 30 to 35 mph late tonight through early to mid afternoon Sunday. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 232 PM CDT Through Sunday night... No substantial changes to the short term thinking here, with a limited risk for a few strong-severe storms developing into the late afternoon and early-evening hours mainly for our locales both south of I-80 and generally east of I-55. Temperatures have managed to claw their way into the mid and upper 60s across much of the forecast area, sans areas near the lake across northeast Illinois where persistent onshore winds have held temperatures in the upper 40s/near 50--typically conditions for this time of year with a sharpening warm front. Somewhat increased low-level moisture continues to steadily advance north and eastward, although the localized 60 degree dewpoints advertised by the recent RAP seem a bit overcooked given upstream observations. Either way, the highest theta-e values look to be contained to the aforementioned areas, and this is where we`ll continue to monitor trends as convection is expected to slowly intensify through the rest of the afternoon. The special 18z ILX sounding remains pretty unimpressive from a thermodynamic perspective, indicating a large degree of lingering inhibition to surface-based parcels, although this will continue to change with the poleward transport of marginally increased near-surface moisture. Latest 1-minute GOES visible satellite imagery shows clumping/congested cumulus developing into Ford County along and subtle axis of enhanced surface convergence, with an additional corridor stretching back along a Farmington to Quincy line. These are the two corridors we`ll be monitoring for gradual shower/storm intensification through 4-5 pm. Impressive kinematics in place, with effective deep layer shear values approaching 55-60 kts may promote the development of some beefier updrafts with time later this afternoon, and given the fast flow in place (and deep shear vectors more-or-less aligned with the convergence axes), some fast-moving bowing segments/clusters capable of producing some sporadic wind damage are possible. Latest guidance suggests things remaining too disorganized for much of a QLCS tornado threat, although one can`t ever be totally discounted in scenarios with non-zero low-level instability given the impressive low-level shear in place. Convective chances will quickly diminish later this evening with the arrival of a cold front. Main story for later tonight and Sunday will be the strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Deep mixing in the cold advective regime will promote momentum transfer up to possibly 5-6 kft tomorrow, which looks good to transport some 35-40 mph gusts to the surface. Main question with the wind magnitudes for tomorrow is how pervasive stratus remains, but did nudge our wind gusts up a bit with this forecast. Look for cooler conditions on Sunday, with high temperatures generally in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... 156 PM CDT Monday through Saturday... As an upper-level ridge builds into the Great Lakes on Monday, a quintessential spring-like southwest to northeast-oriented pressure gradient will develop across the central United States. Such will allow for decidedly breezy southwest winds to develop and gust 30-35 mph Monday afternoon. Northwest of a line from Mendota to McHenry, gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range appear likely which may down twigs/small tree limbs and blow around trash cans. High temperatures Monday are also poised to jump back into the 60s. Considering the breezy winds, warm temperatures, and cured fine fuels (though admittedly the grass outside our window is just starting to green up), outdoor burning is discouraged on Monday. Tuesday, a cold front will swing through the Great Lakes dropping temperatures and flopping winds toward the northwest. Precipitation chances (in the form of scattered showers) along the front look best generally along and southeast of I-55 based on the timing of the front and potential for a short-wavelength trough to sneak in from the southwest. With 850 mb temperatures poised to fall below -10 C, the effects of the front will be felt Wednesday and especially Thursday when highs struggle to climb into the 40s. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble depicts a 70% chance highs on Thursday don`t get above 40 across northeastern Illinois! Thursday night also looks chilly with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. While somewhat unwelcome, the cool down will not be unprecedented with daily records at both Chicago and Rockford looking quite safe. Warming temperatures are then expected from Friday onward as a ridge builds into the Great Lakes. In fact, highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are not out of question by the weekend! Borchardt && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... 632 PM...Forecast concerns include... Chance of showers this evening. Mvfr cigs later this evening through late Sunday morning. Strong/gusty northwest winds overnight and Sunday. There is still a chance of showers across the Chicago area terminals this evening but the bulk of the rain is expected to stay south of the terminals with thunderstorms staying well south of the terminals. There is a small chance of rain showers early Sunday morning through daybreak. Confidence is rather low both for coverage and location, though northeast IL and northwest IN would be the favored areas. Mvfr cigs are expected to develop/spread back across the area later this evening and continue overnight into Sunday morning. There is some potential for cigs to drop into low mvfr, especially across northwest IL. Thus only medium confidence for specific cigs. Mvfr cigs will slowly lift Sunday morning and scatter out from west to east in the afternoon. Generally southwest winds are expected early this evening, turning more westerly by mid evening. There is a lake breeze boundary that has become generally stationary just north of ord. Its possible that this boundary may sag south toward ord if any showers were to develop north of it, helping push it south. Confidence is very low and opted to carry prevailing southwest winds at ord for now. A cold front will move across the area late this evening/early Sunday morning, shifting winds to the northwest. Speeds/gusts will increase behind this cold front with gusts into the 30kt range through late Sunday morning. Speeds/gusts will diminish slowly Sunday afternoon then rapidly with sunset Sunday evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...4 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM Sunday to 10 PM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Manitoba through the Northern Plains resulting in sw flow through the western Great Lakes. A shortwave trough was moving through southeast SD. At the surface, an inverted trough extended to the west end of Lake Superior from low pressure over eastern IA. An area of rain over northern WI was supported by WAA and isentropic ascent ahead of the low while another area of snow/rain from northeast MN through nw WI into southern MN was associated with 850-700 mb deformation/fgen ahead of the mid level trough. Temps ranged from the mid 40 west to the mid 30s central where lower clouds supported by moist southerly flow have been more persistent. Models suggest that the bulk of the northern WI rain will move off to the east northeast. However, the fgen band and area of pcpn to the west will slide through Upper Michigan tonight. Leftover warm air will cool quickly with the onset of the pcpn with a changeover to snow during the evening. Models consensus of overall pcpn amounts in the 0.25-0.50 inch range seemed reasonable. 850 mb temps to around -7C during the period of strongest lift will be marginal for lake enhancement but with increasing upslope northerly flow developing snowfall amount in some higher terrain locations to around 4 inches may be possible. Since there is some uncertainty with how quickly the change to snow will occur and how efficiently snow will accumulate will temps are in the low to mid 30s, an SPS was issued highlighting potential for mainly 1 to 3 inch amounts over most of the north. Strong drying will spead quickly across the area from west to east Sunday bringing an end to the snow early over the west and by late morning or early afternoon from the central into the east. Forecast momentum transer with the CAA suggest that nnw winds will gust into the 30-35 mph range central with some higher gusts to 40 mph also possible, especially near Lake Superior. Highs temps will also only in the low 30s north and upper 30s south. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 339 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 The area will be under a progressive pattern with up and down temperatures though mid week. Ridging on Monday giving way to a cold front and trough before we start to transition to a blocking pattern with weak ridging developing over the central U.S. Get out and enjoy the unseasonably warm temperatures on Monday as Tuesday and Wednesday look much colder. Once we get past the mid-week cool down we`ll start a warming trend into next weekend. As our Sunday system departs to the east another trough will begin to deepen along the lee side of the Rockies in northern Alberta and eject into the Canadian prairies. While this low is expected to track well to the north of the area strong southerly flow will develop on Monday ahead of the approaching surface trough and cold front. This will lead to an unseasonable warm day with high temperatures 20 degrees above average in the west, not quite as warm out east with southerly flow cooling as it travels up the length of Lake Michigan. A strong southerly 50-60kt low level jet will develop Monday into Monday night. The strongest winds will be out east and the NBM seems to be doing a good job picking up on these, a few knots stronger than the raw model blends. Went with a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th percentile for winds. Wind gusts should get to around 30 knots by Monday evening and possibly higher. The cold front will move though Tuesday cooling the low and mid levels with good mixing behind the front. This could lead to a windy day, particularly in the west, with the potential for 40+ knot gusts. Didn`t go that high with the forecast yet but something that should be watched. As far as precipitation it looks like light precipitation should accompany the front as it passes though the area on Tuesday, starting as rain and mixing with or briefly changing to snow before ending as the band traverses the area. Most of the precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday night. Strong CAA will result in 850mb temps falling down to near -20C by Wednesday afternoon, however, drier air looks like it will inhibit LES with inverted-v type soundings. Temps will warm back into the 30s for Thursday, however westerly winds continuing to bring dry air into the area could bring humidity down to around 20% in the west in the afternoon. Looking further out into late next week we could be headed into a warmer stretch up here in the U.P though it could be a slow transition with the area on the downstream side of a building ridge initially. NCEP Ensemble clusters all represent a blocking pattern strengthening over the Atlantic with strong positive height anomalies over the mid-Atlantic, extending north into Greenland. A bit of a slower response with ridging over the central U.S but positive height anomalies begin to build over several days starting late in the week. Looking at the dprog/dt the CMC members were clustered in more of a zonal pattern a few days ago but have trended towards the blocking solution suggested by the EC and GEFS on the most recent run. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Low pres moving across the western Great Lakes will bring -sn and mostly IFR conditions to KIWD/KCMX/KSAW tonight. However, at KCMX, pcpn will begin as -ra along with VFR conditions, but pcpn will switch to -sn over the next few hrs with conditions falling to IFR. Some periods of LIFR are possible at all of the terminals tonight. On the backside of the system, gusty nw winds will develop. At KIWD, gusts to around 20kt are expected overnight thru Sun morning. At KSAW/KCMX nnw winds should gust to 30-35kt, perhaps up to 40kt at times, late tonight/Sun morning. As the system departs, -sn will end late tonight at KIWD, Sun morning at KCMX and late morning/early aftn at KSAW. Conditions will improve to MVFR as the snow ends, and some periods of VFR will be possible during the day Sun. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Stronger winds arrive late tonight into Sunday over central and eastern Lake Superior when gale force gusts to 35-40 knots are expected with colder air moving in. The active weather period will continue from Monday into Wednesday night as wind gusts of around 30 knots persist through that timeframe over the lake. There could be a few gale force gusts to 35 knots over north central Lake Superior on Tue && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ266. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ264-265. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ249-250. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ248. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>245. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
National Weather Service Morristown TN
927 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .DISCUSSION... The late afternoon and evening has been steady and busy. Flooding remains the biggest threat, however, a few storms have produced some large hail in some areas. The latest HRRR and RAP are in good agreement on timing with the next round of strong storms. That appears to be between 5 AM ET to 11 AM...moving from west to east fairly rapidly. We expect strong winds, potentially damaging winds along the edge of the stronger storms. On top of that will be the additional heavy rainfall contributing to additional flooding. No major changes to the ongoing forecast were needed. AC && .AVIATION... A lull in convection for TAF sites will persist for the next few hours. There may be a few showers pass over an airfield but believe the biggest threat will be early in the morning when a line of strong thunderstorms moves through the region. Some wind gusts may exceed current TAF forecast. Timing confidence is medium to high when strongest storms move through. After 12z tomorrow confidence lowers on prevailing conditions but should be MVFR/VFR especially after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 68 40 65 46 / 80 90 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 67 37 62 41 / 80 90 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 67 36 62 41 / 80 90 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 66 34 61 38 / 80 90 20 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe- Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington-West Polk. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington-Wise. && $$