Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/22/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1049 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Upper air analysis showed a large positive tilted trough extending from the northern Plains into the Great Basin. The northern part of this trough was shearing off to the east while the southern part was digging southeast with a closed low developing over Utah. Elsewhere, a cold front had moved into southwest Kansas and currently extends from just west of a Hays to Liberal line. The front will move a little more to the southeast this evening before becoming stationary. The upper low over Utah will track from Utah across northern New Mexico tonight and Monday. Ahead of this system, upper level flow will become increasingly difluent with increasing upward vertical motion over the central High Plains tonight. Precipitation chances will increase tonight. Latest model guidance doesn`t develop much until mid/late evening with precipitation increasing in areal coverage later tonight into Monday. Instability is weak to non-existent this afternoon and the models only show a modest increase this evening so thunderstorm coverage may be pretty limited. Areas of rain will initially develop in areas behind the front over western/northern sections of the forecast area and then spread east late tonight. On Monday through Monday night the upper system tracks takes on a more neutral to negative tilt as it moves across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. The bulk of the rain across western Kansas will occur on Monday before ending from west to east Monday night as the upper system pulls away. There could be a little light snow mixing in over far western sections Monday evening before the precipitation ends but no accumulation is expected. Total precipitation amounts should range from around a half inch over far western sections of the area to around 1.5 inches across portions of central and south central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Another upper level system will dig into Arizona by Tuesday night and move out through the southern Plains through Wednesday night and Thursday. There continues to be a little more uncertainty as to how far north any precipitation from this system will get into Kansas but at this time, the most likely area will be across the southern half of the forecast area. There could also be more of a rain/snow mix with this system depending on the amount of cold air this system has. The central Plains should dry out and warm up by next weekend as the upper level flow becomes more zonal and low level downslope flow develops over the central High Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High confidence that poor flying conditions will prevail through the balance of this TAF period. VFR seen presently at the airports will continue for about the first 6 hours of this TAF period, with widespread IFR/LIFR stratus expanding across the terminals around 12z Mon. Poor flying weather is expected daylight Monday, with continued IFR/LIFR stratus, and reduced visibility in BR/-SHRA/RA. Rain showers will be numerous Monday, and some of the rain will be heavy at times, reducing visibility to MVFR, and IFR at times. The best chance of thunderstorms is near/SE of DDC around 21z Mon- 00z Tue. Followed the HRRR solutions with its depiction of a strong deformation band producing widespread rain and IFR/LIFR flight category 00-06z Tue. NE winds will prevail for most of this TAF cycle, then trend NWly and increase in strength after 00z Tue. NW wind gusts of 30-35 kts are expected toward the end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 49 34 55 / 70 90 40 10 GCK 38 44 31 54 / 80 90 40 0 EHA 37 43 29 55 / 70 80 20 0 LBL 40 49 30 56 / 70 80 30 0 HYS 40 48 35 52 / 80 100 70 20 P28 46 56 40 57 / 70 90 60 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
959 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Summary: chances of light rain move in for this evening and overnight, with drier conditions during the day Monday. A more prolonged period of precipitation moves in for Monday night, lingering through Wednesday. A mix of rain, snow, and possibly some freezing rain will be possible. More chances of precipitation are possible next weekend. Gusty southerly winds will continue this afternoon before a weak cold front passes through the region this evening and overnight. Current surface analysis shows the front situated over far northwest Minnesota, moving east towards the region. Chances of rain showers will be possible with this front. However, accumulations are expected to be low due to the amount of dry air the rain has to overcome. Winds will shift more westerly overnight once the front passes through. Total rainfall will range between 0.05" to 0.20", highest amounts expected to fall over the Minnesota Arrowhead. High pressure will nose into the Northland for Monday, resulting in mostly sunny skies, especially over northeast Minnesota. Relative humidities should become dry, but winds will be light and variable, so hazardous fire weather conditions aren`t anticipated. Attention then turns to the prolonged period of precipitation for Monday night through Wednesday. The culprit is a nearly vertically- stacked area of low pressure moving northward from the south. A longwave upper-level trough will support surface cyclogenesis over the TX Panhandle region. As the trough pivots more northerly, the surface low will follow suit towards the Northland. A leading band of frontogenetical forcing ahead of the surface low will bring chances of rain over northwest Wisconsin Monday night. Precipitation will become more widespread as the enhanced isentropic upglide with the surface low lifts northward. The surface low will lift into the region on Wednesday, and exit late Wednesday. Precip types are a bit uncertain, thanks to a very cool low-level thermodynamic environment. Both the NAM and GFS model soundings are indicating sufficient saturation in the ice bearing layer aloft, but temperatures above freezing in the boundary layer will likely result in either rain or non- accumulating snow. A warm layer aloft, most likely over the North Shore, could result in freezing rain if the surface temperatures can cool by a degree or two. For now, we have higher confidence in a rain/snow mix, with little freezing rain. This system does look to be rather wet, with rainfall amounts of over 1 inch possible. Accumulating snow is most likely over northeast Minnesota where the coldest air will be situated. We could see accumulations of at least a few inches along and north of the Iron Range, but this may change! Once the surface low shifts off to the northeast, dry conditions should return to the Northland for Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF model is hinting at a larger system that could skim the eastern portions of the region, while the GFS and GEM models keep the region dry. There could be more chances of precipitation for next weekend, but uncertainty remains on the spatial coverage and timing due to differences among the global models. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A cold front and upper trough were moving through the Northland this evening with showers near and behind the cold front and well ahead over northern Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota. Gusty winds continued ahead of the front but those are expected to diminish over the next 1 to 3 hours. Ceilings are expected to lower to low VFR or MVFR for most areas with the MVFR ceilings most likely along and behind the front. The showers may reduce the visibility to MVFR and possibly briefly to IFR. Any IFR visibility restrictions should be short-lived, around an hour or less. As the front passes through, winds will veer to west then northwest but they are expected to remain at or below 10 knots except for a brief increase as the front passes. There is some indication low MVFR ceilings could form later tonight, especially over far northern Minnesota. The RAP was indicating some low level moisture but confidence is not very high on it forming or how widespread it will be. We added a mention in some of the TAFs but mostly left it as scattered for now. VFR conditions are expected for much of the day Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A cold front will move across the lake tonight, shifting winds to the west and bringing light rain. Localized gusts around 25 knots will be possible early this evening before winds ease to 5 to 10 knots tonight. Waves are also expected to subside to 2 feet or less. The exception will be along the North Shore from Two Harbors to Grand Portage, where waves will remain around 1 to 3 feet tonight. Conditions on Monday are expected to be quiet with mostly sunny skies and west-southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots. Low pressure approaches the area on Tuesday, which will bring rain and increased winds. Winds are expected to veer to the northeast on Tuesday and strengthen to 15 to 20 knots. Wind gusts on Tuesday may reach up to 30 knots. At this time, the pressure gradient associated with this system appears too weak to produce widespread gale-force winds. Waves may build to 4 to 7 feet on Tuesday, except in Chequamegon Bay where waves will be around 1-3 feet in the ice free areas. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 38 49 33 41 / 60 0 70 90 INL 29 45 24 47 / 60 0 10 30 BRD 33 52 35 45 / 60 0 60 90 HYR 40 55 38 50 / 50 0 100 90 ASX 43 54 34 43 / 50 0 90 90 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTS AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Unruh/Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 408 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS and a downstream ridge from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough extended from southern Manitoba into western North Dakota. At the surface, strong southerly flow prevailed ahead of a trough into northwest MN. Vis/IR loops showed mid and high clouds increasing with the WAA pattern ahead of the trough. Any pcpn lagged well to the west near of just behind the trough, over eastern ND into nw MN. Tonight, expect clouds to thicken this evening with 800-600 mb fgen supporting rain over MN that will not spread into western Upper Michigan until late this evening as the dry antecedent airmass slows its progress into the area. As the supporting dynamics weaken and lift north of the area overnight, the rain should diminish with only lower end POPs into the central and east late tonight or early Mon. Mild conditions will continue with min temps only in the lower 40s. Gusty south winds will also prevail this evening, especially near the Great Lakes. Monday, with the front/trough sliding east of the area and weakening any lingering light rain will diminish early. Otherwise, drier air with a weak ridge building into the area will bring clearing into the afternoon. Temps will again climb well above normal with highs from around 50 north to the upper 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021 The longterm period looks to continue with above normal temperatures through the first half of this week. During the middle of the week and through the weekend, models suggest temperatures fall back closer to normal, but perhaps still slightly abv, to round out the month of March. Broad ridging over the ern CONUS will slowly slide to the east as a trof follows behind. By Monday, this trof takes on more of a split- flow pattern with the northern stream bringing a weak cold front across the UP with some light pcpn and a southern stream wave gets cut off and drifts east through the 4 corners and into TX. Tuesday night into Wednesday, this wave lifts northward, progged to pass through western to central Upper Michigan by Wednesday afternoon, while bringing a pcpn shield of rain Tuesday through early Thursday morning. Split flow and broad troffing with a series of waves are progged to continue across much of the central and wern CONUS behind this wave into the weekend. Models suggest another wave shifting from the Pac NW through the Rockies and into the GL region on Friday, but this one looks to stay a bit to the south through Lower Michigan. Another wave follows in a similar path, before lifting through the GL Sunday, bringing another chance of pcpn across mostly the eastern half of Upper Michigan and potentially missing us all together...still some time to shake out the details. As the warm front pushes across the UP Monday night, moisture looks to be marginal initially, as well as the WAA but models that show pcpn are suggesting decent isentropic ascent that will bring a chance of light rain. Behind this warm front, there looks to be a break in the pcpn as dry air mixes into the profile, cutting off deeper moisture as well. NCEP models are trending towards little to no break in the pcpn, thus a bit more qpf than their EC/GEM counterparts. More widespread forcing for ascent and moisture profiles arrive later in evening on Tuesday, as a shield of pcpn will shift over the UP, bringing widespread rain with amounts most likely between 0.3 and 0.7 inches across the UP for the event. I did trend the fcst a little drier given the wet bias of the NCEP models and antecedent PWATs near their 10th pctl. However, despite GFS being an outlier, its solns have remained consistent. There is still a chance for amts to approach upwards of 1.0 inch, with the better chance of this remaining across wern UP or across the south-central. Models show the strongest forcing, especially in the GFS, remaining off to the west over Lake Superior and the Arrowhead of MN where the better fgen forcing will be. This system looks to slowly shift over the UP through Wednesday night, before shifting away into Thursday morning. Some model differences in how this event ends, with the GFS coming down from its outrageous -20C from yesterdays run and NAM/GEM 850mb temps have come down some. So while I took out any mention of snow through Wednesday aftn given the sounding profiles, there is a chance some snow starts to mix in as the event winds down Wednesday evening, mainly across the west with little to no accum expected at this point. With Upper Michigan in a shortterm drought, I am unsure how much of this pcpn will be able to help. There is still quite a bit of frost in some locations, and only a couple inches of thaw in the snow free areas. Possible that locations lose quit a bit of pcpn to runoff vs any infiltration, but we will take what we can get at this point. Aside from localized ponding of water in low-lying areas, or potentially some basements, not expecting any river flooding from this pcpn. Models continue their differences behind this exiting low with a second southern stream shortwave ejecting to the NE from ern TX Thursday night, lifting through the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. This low has trended slightly more north with the latest run and outside of ern UP getting a glancing blow, still expected to remain to the south. Heading into the weekend, a building ridge moves onto the West Coast as another wave rounds the trof as it shifts east. Models have diverging solns at this point, but ensem means show a developing sfc low somewhere in the Ohio River Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. Could bring some pcpn, or even some snow across ern Upper Michigan, or it could remain to the south all together, still a week out to sort out the details. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 630 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021 TAFs will continue to be VFR into this evening but then will lower to MVFR at IWD and CMX later tonight with the approach of a trough/cold front from northwest MN. Drier air moving in Mon behind the front should lift cigs to VFR. There will be LLWS at KSAW into tonight as a LLJ remains over the area. SSW winds will also be gusty, around 25 knots at CMX and 30 knots at IWD and SAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 408 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021 Over the east half, southerly winds are expected to remain near 30 knots tonight. Winds on the west half will remain lighter in the 20- 25 kt range through tonight. Lighter winds are expected Monday as a low pressure trough moves over the area. By Tuesday, a low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley will result in winds veering around to NE and increasing to 20-30 kts, greatest over the western third of the lake. NE winds may even reach low-end gale force gusts over the west end late Tuesday into Wednesday morning before backing N-NW and diminishing to 20-25 knots late Wednesday night into Thursday as the low lifts northward across the lake and weakens. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
602 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Updated forecast for current temps/winds. Also decreased pops early this evening over far eastern plains as precip will not get out that way till a few more hours or so. /Hodanish && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A few showers are currently showing up on radar over El Paso and surrounding counties, and a few observations have been reporting snow showers. Winds have also been consistently gusty today, though the wind highlight expired earlier this morning, gusts to around 30 mph have been pretty consistent across the area today, with some easterly gusts making it through La Veta Pass into Alamosa. The passing low has sent a front south across the plains, with the resulting gusty upslope aiding in the onset of precipitation. As the low tracks southeast, precipitation will begin to spread over El Paso and Teller Counties before encompassing most of the I-25 corridor, Sangre de Cristos and the Wet Mountains as well as the Continental Divide and eastern San Juans. Impact wise, through the initial hours of this evening most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. High temperatures today have been on the warm side, with most, if not all, of the plains sitting above freezing. Snow is expected to occur over the mountains, but the lower elevations are not expected to switch to snow until after about 9pm. El Paso will likely be the first location to switch over, before the rain/snow line moves south throughout the night. Given the lift associated with this system, and the potential for upsloping on the north side of the Palmer Divide, snow rates later tonight could top off at 2-3 inches per hour, although the heavy snow is not expected to last very long, which is what mostly warranted the highlight for those areas. Some areas around the Palmer Divide, as well as the Pikes Peak region and Teller County, could be seeing upwards of 8-10 inches by late Monday night, while the Colorado Springs area could see around 5 inches. The system is progressing fairly quickly, and given the high temperatures today and yesterday, the potential impacts will be largely dependent on location and temperatures. The Palmer Divide and high elevations will be seeing more snow, and the Divide specifically will be seeing brief periods of heavier snow, so some accumulation is expected by the end of the event. Other areas further south will mostly just be seeing accumulation on grassy areas, as roads will be too warm and any falling snow is expected to melt pretty quickly. Wet, slushy roads could be possible, however, and caution while driving is encouraged. The southern I-25 corridor will also potentially be seeing brief heavier snow, given the upslope component towards the Raton Mesa, with the last several runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest potentially putting some pockets of more convective-looking snow over parts of Las Animas County, which warranted it being added into the existing Advisory for that area, in case road conditions become hazardous. Those areas are expected to pick up 4-6 inches of snow on average, with the adjacent mountains picking up about twice that amount. However, Pueblo County was still left out of the highlights, as none of the high-res models had us picking up more snow than previously forecasted, and with the late rain-snow switch and warm high temperatures, impacts are expected to be minimal. Tomorrow, as the cyclone and trough dig east, precipitation will follow, leaving some lingering snow over the central and southeast mountains while the more widespread precipitation pushes east. Models have been in disagreement over the mode of precipitation, with the latest HRR predicting mostly rain, while other models are calling for more of a rain-snow mix, which seems more likely given the expected high temperatures for tomorrow. Either way, roads are still expected to be too warm for anything to stick there, so impacts to travel are expected to be minimal there as well. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A few flurries or snow showers will linger over the mountains and far ern plains Mon night as upper low departs, with activity ending by early Tue morning. Break in precip will be brief, as next upper wave drops south through the Great Basin Tue, before swinging slowly eastward through the srn Rockies Tue night and Wed. Expect snow showers to redevelop over the mountains ahead of the wave by Tue afternoon, then fairly widespread snow becomes likely over the mts/valleys and I-25 corridor Tue night into Wed. Track of this system will be farther south than Sun/Mon low, suggesting heaviest precip will fall over the ern San Juans, srn Sangres and srn I-25 corridor. Accumulations could be significant (1- 2 feet at the highest elevations) in these areas by Wed afternoon, and we`ll likely need winter wx highlights at some point in the next few forecast cycles. Ahead of the system, some warming expected Tue afternoon, though maxes will still fall short of seasonal averages. Precip diminishes over the ern mts and plains late Wed, while farther west, mountains along the Continental Divide see renewed snow shower chances as last upper wave rotates toward the area. 21/12z deterministic models have backed off considerably on precip with this wave, as energy splits and nrn stream portion lifts quickly into the high plains. Expect mainly mt snow showers both Thu/Fri as weakly unstable air mass persists across the region, before ridging returns and dry/warmer weather develop next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 VFR conditions expected the rest of the day today at KALS, KCOS and KPUB, although gusty winds are expected to last. Overnight tonight, precipitation is expected to set in at all three terminals. KALS...Gusty west-southwest wind to about 30 mph will persist the rest of the afternoon, turning more easterly after about 00-03Z and remaining gusty. Showers will drift near the terminal around this time as well from the east, although it is very unlikely anything will directly impact the terminal. KCOS...Occasionally gusty east-northeast winds will persist through most of the night, turning more northerly after 00Z. Rain showers have developed near the terminal, and are expected to turn to snow by 00Z, leading to potential MVFR-IFR conditions that should last well into tomorrow. KPUB...Gusty northeast winds will last into the night, with rain showers setting in near the terminal after 00Z. The precipitation is expected to begin as rain over the terminal around 03Z and transition to snow about 2 hours later, bringing conditions down to MVFR-IFR overnight, which will last through the end of the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for COZ058>063- 072>078. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ079>082-084. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for COZ083-085-087- 088. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 PM PDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Winds increase Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region. There will be a chance for snow showers Monday night with some snow-covered roads possible into commute time Tuesday morning, especially in western Nevada and extreme northeast California. Another front is expected Thursday for a drop in temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... After quiet weather into early Monday morning (just a mid and high level cloud increase tonight), the focus turns to a disturbance currently near the British Columbia coast. That wave will push into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by Monday afternoon and evening, with an "inside slider" dropping down the backside of the trough into western NV Monday night. Ahead of the slider, the incoming trough will push a lead frontal boundary into northern NV/CA tomorrow. This could bring a few rain and snow showers to areas north of Susanville and Lovelock with a few sprinkles/flurries possibly reaching down to Hwy 50 east of Fallon. Any showers look quite light and no road travel impacts are expected through Monday afternoon. Turning to the "inside slider", it looks much like a true inside slider as it is expected to drop down east of the Sierra crest rather than the hybrid situation we often get where the disturbance drops through northwest CA and into the Sierra. With the true slider track, areas across western/west-central NV are expected to receive more rain and snow than the Sierra; however, the devil is in the details as slight shifts east or west can make a big difference for who receives widespread precipitation and who gets little or no precipitation. As far as travel impacts, complicating the issue further will be the precipitation rates and road surface temperatures as precipitation will be blasting through in a couple hours or less Monday night. While we would expect a rapid transition from a mix of rain and snow to all snow with the slider`s precipitation bands, areas below about 4500 feet may wind up with just wet roads if snowfall rates remain light. As is typical with sliders, there will likely be narrow bands of heavier snowfall rates embedded in the larger precipitation band; however, embedded narrow bands are not able to be forecast confidently at this point. What does all this mean? Be prepared for a light snowfall in western/west-central NV and extreme eastern CA (especially Mono County) Monday night and be prepared for a slushy, slow commute Tuesday morning, especially above lower valley floors. Tuesday looks brisk with breezy northerly winds and well below average temperatures. Any road impacts due to snow will likely end by mid- morning as the sun gets to work on paved areas (even with cloud cover). Note that strong easterly winds are expected for the Sierra crest westward (gusts to 100 mph or so possible exposed areas) by Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the western Great Basin. Winds on Lake Tahoe will also increase substantially with rough waters likely by late morning or early afternoon. -Snyder .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Onward)... * Main trend here is the inland trough for Thursday is trending more eastward which lessens the snow and wind impact potentials for W Nevada and the Sierra. Light rain or snow showers are now looking confined to areas east of Hwy 95 into central Nevada coupled with the best forcing, with some minor upslope showers possible for the E Sierra. North/northeast winds not looking too interesting either with ECMWF EPS means showing 20-30 mph Thursday in most areas, and only 10% of members above 40 mph in wind prone spots. * Otherwise the long term is focused mainly on temperature trends. Wednesday will be an interesting day in between systems. Cold air behind the Tuesday wave isn`t too robust; however, NBM guidance showing mainly N/NE flow Wednesday with a very late day switch to downsloping westerlies. As such, for example, max temps range from 49 to 66 in the 10th-90th NBM percentiles for RNO and 41-55 at MMH airport. So some good boom-bust potential on Wednesday`s temps. * For Thursday the dip in temps is not as pronounced now with a more easterly trajectory of that trough. Into next weekend the NBM continues to show a big spread in max/min temps, depending on where the upper ridge axis sets up. Therefore, confidence in temperature forecast is below normal. Could either stay seasonably cool or could get quite warm relative to normal into the following week. * In any scenario am not seeing meaningful or cohesive storm signals in the GFS or ECMWF EPS guidance. Some low-end storm noise here and there into early April but it`s a pretty good bet for below normal precip next 1-2 weeks. -Chris && .AVIATION... Shortwave ridge aloft resulting in light winds and plentiful sunshine today with clear skies extending into this evening. Sharp inland- trajectory trough drops into the Great Basin Monday night. In the broad ascent zone ahead of this wave, mid and high level clouds increase late tonight through tomorrow. Breezy northwest winds will also kick up Monday with gusts 20-30 kts likely at most airfields in the Sierra and W Nevada. Some pockets of MVFR blowing dust possible between HTH-NFL-WMC. Depending on westward extent of the trough axis, a "slider" band of snow showers is possible across W Nevada Monday night. This could put down a fast 30-60 minute period of IFR snow from RNO/CXP/MEV eastward to NFL and into central Nevada. Whether or not this sticks to runways is TBD - depending on how quick we cool off at night and residual heat from previous day. Based on HRRR and NAM high-def simulations there`s roughly a 70% chance of a dusting, 20% chance of an inch or so. Early Tuesday morning outbound traffic at RNO and other sites could be affected by need for deicing, snow clearance. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
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