Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/20/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
722 PM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 .AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... Main story for the taf cycle will be gradually veering winds from the W/NW overnight to N/NE by the end of the period, with the exception of KAPF. While drier conditions should keep terminals mostly dry, have included VCSH for the east coast tomorrow to account for the possibility of some Atlantic SHRA moving inland. Likewise, conditions should be primarily VFR with intermittently lower cigs possible associated with SHRA. && .UPDATE... The weak cold front that pushed across the area today now resides to our south over the Florida Straits. At this time, the forecast remains in good shape with northwesterly flow behind the front allowing for cooler and drier air to trickle into South Florida through the overnight hours. Outside of a few possible spotty showers along the east coast, more pleasant and spring-like conditions will be enjoyed across South Florida tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 245 PM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021) SHORT TERM... Today through Saturday... The tail end of a cold front is current passing through the region, with scattered convection lingering ahead of the front over the Atlantic waters. As the front clears the area today, westerly winds will veer towards the NW by tonight. This will allow for cooler and drier air to settle into the region, and should keep the area fairly dry for tonight with the exception of the offshore Atlantic waters, where scattered showers are possible overnight. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm over the Atlantic waters through the day as well, as RAP mesoanalysis data reveals ML CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg over the Atlantic waters. By tomorrow, a weak post-frontal surface trough oriented from SE to NW remains positioned along the Atlantic coastline. This introduces a modest coastal convergence setup, with NE winds over the waters and NNE winds along the immediate coastline. With a neutral synoptic environment that favors neither rising or sinking motion and the aforementioned coastal moisture convergence, isolated/scattered showers may develop across coastal metro portion of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. These showers will be mostly of the garden variety, and impacts will be limited to locally gusty winds. Maximum temperatures will cool down considerably compared to previous days. Forecast maximum temperatures today may reach the lower/mid 80s, however by tomorrow with the cooler NW/N flow, maximum temperatures should be seasonable, with maximums in the upper 70s region-wide. LONG TERM... Saturday Night through Friday... A developing low pressure system in the Northwestern Bahamas aided by a 500mb trough digging southwards across the Southeastern United States, will create cyclogenesis over the Northwestern Bahamas and bring cyclonic flow to our area as a result on Sunday. This cyclonic flow may allow for the advection of increased moisture and a few coastal showers along portions of the Atlantic coast of South Florida. The main concern with this offshore low pressure system continues to be the potential of elevated swell from this feature over the next week which will result in hazardous marine and beach conditions for the atlantic and east coast beaches over the next several days. As the surface feature begins to move northeastwards in response to the eastward progression of the 500mb trough, rain chances will decrease during Sunday evening into Monday. The departure of this feature will allow for a ridge of high pressure to build into our region during the early part of the week, which will bring another period of quiet and benign weather to our area. As diurnal onshore flow returns along both coasts under the ridge of high pressure, a gradual warming trend will continue through late week. AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Drier conditions will continue to filter into the region as a weak cold front pushes away from South Florida. Likewise, winds will continue to gradually becoming NW through the evening and then N/NE tomorrow. While VFR conditions should prevail, can`t rule out brief bouts of MVFR cigs until the front fully clears. MARINE... A frontal boundary will continue to slowly progress into the western Atlantic waters. This will serve as a foci for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop, which may allow for locally higher wind gusts and perhaps an isolated waterspout within any stronger storm. The eastward movement of the front will allow for winds to veer out of the NW by tonight, and then out of the N/NE by tomorrow. A surface low associated with this frontal boundary undergoes modest development as it moves into the offshore waters. This will allow for a NW swell to develop on the back-end of this feature, which is forecast to propagate towards the Atlantic coastline for the latter part of the weekend. Dangerous marine conditions may evolve from this, with wave heights from 6 to 10 ft possible along the Atlantic nearshore waters. BEACHES... A passing cold front will cause winds to shift from the W towards the NW tonight and eventually N/NE by tomorrow morning. This will lead to a moderate risk of rip currents across the Gulf Coast beaches today. The risk of rip currents will increase over the Atlantic beaches by the second half of the weekend into early next week as a northeasterly swell develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 63 80 64 81 / 10 20 20 20 West Kendall 58 82 61 82 / 0 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 61 79 62 80 / 10 20 20 20 Homestead 58 79 61 80 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 64 80 64 81 / 10 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 63 78 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 61 80 62 81 / 10 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 63 78 62 79 / 10 20 20 20 Boca Raton 64 79 63 80 / 10 20 20 20 Naples 56 76 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...HVN Tonight/Saturday and Marine...Bhatti Saturday Night through Friday...Hadi Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
746 PM PDT Fri Mar 19 2021 .UPDATE... Quick update to increase rain chances significantly east of Lovelock and Fallon. Front is expected to reform there overnight with good frontogenetical forcing into central Nevada. HREF and HRRR are showing this development well in line with operational GFS/NAM. As current radar and satellite trends are showing this band developing quite well, have increased the pops and rain amounts there. The band looks to hang around until just after midnight before pushing east into the rest of central and eastern Nevada. Rainfall amounts up to 1/3 inch here (more potential in Elko`s area) with a few inches of snow above 7000 feet or so in the mountains. X && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 119 PM PDT Fri Mar 19 2021/ SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers along with gusty winds continue through tonight. A few light snow showers are likely to linger on Saturday. It will remain cool over the weekend followed by the potential for a couple of quick moving storms Monday and Thursday. DISCUSSION... The main Pacific moisture tap from our ongoing system is sliding south early this afternoon. Rain and snow showers will continue through tonight, with the highest chances in the Sierra and northeast California as the upper trough moves onshore. Snow levels are expected to lower by late afternoon into this evening as the cold core of the low moves in overhead. Brief snow accumulations on Sierra roadways are possible, but are likely to be short-lived until after sunset as roads remain rather warm. Overnight, travel difficulties will be likely through the aforementioned areas. Isolated showers will be possible area-wide Saturday as the trough transverses across the region, but additional accumulation will be negligible with road impacts unlikely. It will, however, be rather chilly on Saturday with temperatures about 10 degrees below normal. Winds will remain rather gusty today along the Sierra Front, particularly along US-395 from Reno south and US-95 near Walker Lake. Travel may be difficult for high profile vehicles and we are getting plenty of report of turbulence and wind shear for aviation interests. Winds will become lighter tonight into Saturday with relatively light N-NE flow for the weekend. Northwest winds look to increase once again Monday into Tuesday, per NBM guidance, but EPS meteograms are all showing a rather run of the mill type event for speeds with gusts peaking around 25-40 mph. Ensemble clusters are in better agreement for the early part of next week keeping the ridge offshore in the eastern Pacific, which allows for weak systems to drop out of the north. Better agreement exists for the main storm track to be just to the east, so while a few light showers are possible, GEFS/EPS both agree that liquid totals have a 90% likelihood of remaining under a tenth of an inch for the Sierra and western Nevada. While there is certainly still positional spread in the ensemble clusters, the leading solution keeps the ridge offshore with yet another wave dropping out of the northwest on Thursday. This could mean another round of light precipitation along with the anticipated warm-up being further delayed. At this point, however, confidence in the exact position of this feature and associated rain/snow and temperatures is low given the spread in guidance. -Dawn AVIATION... Winds will remain gusty through tonight, especially at ridge tops. For terminals along the Sierra Front from KRTS south to KMMH gusts 25-40 kts are likely. These winds will create enhanced turbulence and LLWS especially over the Sierra and Sierra Front. A low-pressure trough moving onshore will continue to bring chances for snow showers through Saturday, but on runways snow accumulations greater than an inch are unlikely. Unsettled weather continues next week, with periods of gusty winds and chances for snow or rain showers, but the storms are expected to be on the weak-to-moderate end of the spectrum. JCM && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV... Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002. CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ073. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...