Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/12/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
819 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
Radars are indicating some light showers scattered, mostly, over
the northern half of the CWA`s plains. There are also some over
the mountains and foothills, even Park County. There is some
enhancement notes on the satellite pictures too. The jet maximum
is right on top of the CWA. The 00Z Denver soundings had a couple
140 knot west-southwest measurements on it around 250-300 mb. I
will increase pops a bit in many areas of the plains overnight.
The new 00Z model runs show a bit more QPF as well from now
through 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
A strong southwesterly flow aloft will be over CO tonight ahead
of the developing upper trough just off the southern CA coast this
afternoon. The models still develop light snow showers this
evening as a 150 kt jet max ejects northeastward across the state.
The models still show the best moisture, lift and instability
will be west and north of Denver. No significant adjustments to
the current pop grids. The best chance of accumulating snowfall
will be in and near the foothills of Larimer and Boulder counties
as well as the Cheyenne Ridge. The latest HRRR favors the time
frame from around 00-06z. With the passing jet aloft, narrow
enhanced bands of light accumulating snowfall will be possible,
with amounts in the 1-3 inch range. This feature will lift
northeast on Friday.
On Friday, the upper low that will be impacting the region over
the weekend will be over southern CA with a fairly dry
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. This system will not
move much through the day on Friday, where it is progged to be
spinning over the southern tip of NV 00z Saturday. Weak qg ascent
will be over the region in the mid and upper levels on Friday. Mid
and upper level moisture will increase in the mountains by Friday
afternoon, with generally scattered shower coverage expected.
Across the northeast plains, spatial cross-sections show the
moisture increasing across the plains in the low levels, generally
below 700 mb, The flow aloft however will remain quite dry. This
may result in some light showers or drizzle near the higher
terrain but not much elsewhere. Pockets of freezing drizzle may be
possible during the morning hours. Overall confidence in
precipitation will be on the low side through the day on Friday
aside from drizzle in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
A major late season winter storm is still on track to hit
northeast and north central Colorado this weekend. Travel will
become difficult if not impossible in/near the Front Range
Mountains, Foothills, and I-25 Corridor, with the worst conditions
expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
The heart of the upper level circulation which will become the
powerful storm is still just off the central California coast and
is rather disorganized at this hour. However, that will all change
as this circulation center drifts eastward late Friday night and
Saturday to the Four Corners area. That`s when this storm begins
to tap into a deep plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Models then
diverge somewhat in location, but especially in intensity most
likely due to differing internal model physics. We, along with
national guidance, still support a blend of the ensembles
especially since this storm is still so disorganized just off the
west coast.
The GFS and GEFS ensemble average is right near 3" of water for
Denver (on the high end), while the EC and its ensemble is
averaging about 1.7" for water equivalent. Meanwhile, the GEM and
its ensembles are pretty much middle of the road with closer to
2.5" of water on average. We, in coordination with national
guidance, are leaning toward the blend of EC and GEM numbers for
now. However, there has been a slight shift southward in the
latest operational member tracks so heavier (and near historic)
numbers are still indeed possible.
This storm has a lot going for it...
1) Strong infusion of Gulf of Mexico moisture
2) Moderate to strong dynamics as seen in the derived QG vertical
motion fields
3) Slow movement thanks to blocking ridge over the top, resulting
in a long duration event, at least 36 hours of high precipitation
rates
4) Strong upslope, as the latest NAEFS ensembles show record
or near record easterly component. (although other ensembles are
not as strong)
5) TROWAL (or trough of warm air aloft), representing the infusion
and upward vertical motion in the plume of rich gulf moisture
Saturday and Saturday night, and possibly into Sunday if storm
slows
All of these ingredient would support snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour in the I-25 Corridor, and up to 3" per hour or more in
the foothills.
Now, a couple limiting factors...
1) A dry slot may work northward and effectively shut down
precipitation. Right now, given the location and stalling of the
upper low we think the dry slot would mainly impact the southeast
part of the forecast area. However, if the storm track ends up
being farther north, then precipitation amounts over the rest of
our forecast area could be cut back a little as well.
2) Temperatures. With very strong warm advection, some rain will
likely work westward across the plains. Right now, we don`t see
that getting any farther west than a Greeley to Limon line, as low
level cold/cool air should be firmly entrenched. Thus, we`d probably
end up with a formation of a barrier jet as precipitation
rates increase significantly Saturday and Saturday night.
We`ve kept the forecast as consistent as possible at this point,
with forecasts of 2-4 feet for the foothills and up to 2 feet for
the I-25 Corridor. As a result of some growing confidence and
messaging for this storm, we`ve upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings
for the Front Range Mountains, Foothills, and I-25 Corridor. To be
clear, these are the most likely forecast amounts. Should the
storm track stay farther south and closer to the GFS/GEFS solutions
then we could still be looking at a near or historic snowfall event.
The one nudge down we made was over the eastern plains where
models continue to indicate such strong warm advection that we`ll
likely see a fair amount of precipitation in the form of rain
Saturday and Saturday night. We kept the eastern plains under a
Winter Storm Watch, as there`s still uncertainty with regard to
p-type and eventual snow accumulations.
Winds will increase on the back side of this system for Sunday,
resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow. Peak gusts may
reach 40-45 mph east of I-25 where more significant blowing snow
impacts are likely. Near blizzard conditions will be possible
especially in the windier areas which would include areas near the
Wyoming border north of Greeley and perhaps the Palmer Divide to
Limon.
After this storm, there will be a trailing short wave with
additional chances of snow. Right now there is considerable spread
in exactly when that system arrives (Tuesday - Wednesday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 820 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
Weak northerly winds are in place at DIA at this time. Models did
not show this very well. Going forward this evening/tonight, all
the models have weak east-southeasterly winds at the big airport
overnight. No drainage. Will keep the ceilings in the BKN-
OVC040-060 range for the rest of this evening into overnight.
Will also put some VCSH back in the TAF. Ceilings now look to get
at or below OVC010 by 12Z Friday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Sunday
night for COZ042-044>046-048>051.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight MST Friday night to 6 AM MDT
Monday for COZ033>036.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday
for COZ038>041-043.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM....Barjenbruch
AVIATION.....RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
915 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area overnight and early Friday
morning. An Arctic cold front will cross the area Friday night
with high pressure ridging across the region on Saturday. Upper
level disturbances are expected to move across the region Sunday
into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:15 PM Update: An unseasonably mild night with 9 PM
temperatures more typical of high temperatures in mid April. The
00z Caribou sounding shows the warm air mass with a freezing
level of 7800 ft agl and temps in the mid 50s (F) at 925H, which
is about as warm as it gets for this time of year. There is an
inversion present which is preventing some stronger wind aloft
from mixing down to the surface. A cold front is evident across
Quebec to the west of the Saint Lawrence River that extends
south into northern NY State. There has even been some lightning
observed this evening along the front. The front is expected to
move into western sections of the FA after midnight and sweep
across the remainder of the area by Friday morning. A few
showers will likely accompany the front, mainly across the
western mountains and north of Baxter State Park. Made some
minor adjustments to account for current and expected
conditions, but overall changes were minor.
Previous discussion:
Tonight...SW flow aloft will continue to bring WAA into the
region. Temps have climbed well into the 50s across Bangor
region into western and northern areas. Far northern areas such
as Caribou into the NE St. John Valley, temps were in the mid
40s. Dewpoints have been slow to rise, especially across the n
and w as the SW flow not able to mix down due to the S wind at
the sfc. The RAP and GEM have handled the current setup well and
keep dewpoints in the low to mid 30s into the late evening
timeframe. This has slowed up the melting process some. However,
further s, dewpoints have climbed into the 30s and even lower
40s across the Downeast areas w/good melting underway. The sfc
analysis showed still back across the eastern Great Lakes slowly
pushing to the e. Warming will continue into tonight
w/dewpoints climbing. This will lead to increased melting of the
snowpack and ice as well as contributing to some fog. The gusty
S winds tonight will offset the fog from becoming to extensive.
Stayed w/patchy fog for tonight. Showers are expected to move
across the region later tonight w/the pre-frontal trof. Strong
jet at 850-700mbs to allow for an areas of showers and the
potential for some strong wind gusts 850-700mb lapse rates are
forecast to hit >/= 6.0 c/km to lead to some instability aloft
and even for a few showers to contain a brief downpour as they
move through. Areal coverage of the expected rainfall is to be
no more and a few hundreths, w/the highest amts back to the w
and across the nrn border. The model guidance can be notorious
for bringing the colder air too soon given the SW flow aloft.
Therefore, backed off on the cooling by at 3 hrs into Friday
morning.
Friday...Cold front is expected to slide across during the
morning, but as mentioned above, colder air will be offset by a
few hrs. A gradual cooldown w/dewpoints dropping back below 32F
which will aid in slowing down the melting process. The bigger
story will be the gusty W winds. Sounding data along w/momentum
transfer showing gust potential to hit 40 mph or higher across
the n and w starting in the mid morning hrs. There is potential
for some of the higher terrain could see gusts to hit 45 mph.
Attm, confidence is not high enough to issue a Wind Advisory.
The later shifts can assess if a headline is needed. Will
address this item in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The
continuation of the mild air will lead to possible ice breakup
on the souther rivers. More on this in the Hydrology section
below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will be swinging through the state Friday night. It
will result in a sharp decline in temps and potentially a flash
freeze of any area standing water on roads/sidewalks from
Fridays warm temps. Lows drop back into the lower to mid-20s
Downeast, and the teens across the north. Accompanying the
passage will be some snow showers, mainly through the Central
Highlands and St. John Valley.
Shower chances diminish during the day Saturday, but winds it
will be brisk as cold air infiltrates the region with a tight
pressure grad overhead. Temps continue to fall into the upper
single digits Sat night, to around 20 Downeast. Winds remain
breezy straight into Sunday, when they may be maximized, some
areas seeing gusts to 35 mph. For now, these winds seem most
probable across western areas; the Bangor Region, Central
Highlands, and North Woods, as low pres drifts through far
eastern Maine. The GFS seems to be most on board with these
winds, but momentum transfer within the NAM also supports these
gusts per BUFKIT soundings. And momentum transfer will be the
thing to watch given widespread low-level lapse rates around
9c/km and the broad 25-35 kt LLJ from ME to PA.
With two of the three ingredients checked off for snow squalls,
what are the chances of seeing these heavier snow showers or
squalls move through the region on Sunday? Wind and low-level
lapse rates are good as is delta Theta E for instability.
Moisture is maybe the only ingredient limited. But given the
amount of convergence embedded in the wave and pressure
gradient, some corridors of snow squalls will be watched for
development. As a result, the SNSQ parameter for NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF, all display higher end values during the afternoon,
tapering Sun evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temps after all of the cold air advection flow will truly be
felt Sun night and Monday as highs rise only into the teens
across the north and lower 20s Downeast. Some moderation occurs
mid week as temps climb back towards normal after the chilly
start.
As far as precip chances, there is a lot of uncertainty in the
long range. Towards Wednesday, the det GFS runs a low up the St.
Lawrence with a coastal redevelopment off Mass and into the
Gulf of Maine. The GFS has the features the most well-defined,
whereas the ECMWF carries a similar setup, but slower. GEM
guidance doesnt phase systems well, resulting in a storm
mostly out to sea. Ptype will depend on how this system evolves,
but this appears to be a cooler solution to overrunning,
perhaps keeping much of the precip as snow across the north and
central areas depending on how developed the secondary low is.
Again, confidence is fleeting with GEFS members also displaying
a wide selection of solutions.
The area remaining in SW flow into Thurs means temperatures may
remain mild into late week with highs back into the mid 30s
across the north and around 40 Downeast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for all terminals late this evening, and then a
gradual decline to MVFR overnight w/the potential for IFR later
at night. Fog is a threat w/the greatest potential across KBGR
and KBHB. LLWS will be a concern as well. S wind 10-15 kt
w/higher gusts becoming SW later tonight.
Friday...SW winds becoming W and increasing to 15-20 kt
w/higher gusts. Gust potential to 35+ kt is there starting from
mid morning and continuing into the afternoon. The stronger
wind gusts will be across the northern TAF sites. MVFR in the
morning across the northern TAF sites becoming VFR. VFR for KBGR
and KBHB.
SHORT TERM:
Fri night...MVFR possible across the north and Downeast
terminals with -SHSN possible into GNR, BGR, and BHB through
midnight local. WNW 10-15kts with gusts to 35kts in the
afternoon and evening.
Sat...VFR. Strong gusty NW winds.
Sat night-Sun night...Mainly VFR, ocnl MVFR across the north.
SHSN possible causing IFR vis. NW 5-15kts and gusty.
Monday and Mon night...VFR. NW 5-15kts and gusty.
Tuesday...VFR. Light W winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA stays up into Fri as SSW winds increase to 20-25
kt tonight becoming W. Gusts to 30 kt are expected. Seas will be
building to 5-8 ft by Fri. SW winds 20-25 kt w/higher gusts will
shift to the W and decrease to 15-20 kt by early afternoon.
Seas will drop back to 4-5 ft by later in the day.
SHORT TERM: SCA winds with gale possible Fri night into Sat
afternoon. SCA winds continue with gusts to 30 through Sat
night. Winds briefly fall below SCA before ramping up towards
Gale again Sunday afternoon into Monday. Winds then slacken to
SCA through Monday night, falling below Tues afternoon. Waves of
4 to 6 feet can be expected through Sunday night, subsiding to 2
to 3 feet Mon night and Tues.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Ice movement is possible along the Piscataquis and Penobscot
River basins into Friday night, which includes the Mattawamkeag
River. Ice thickness is around 1 foot, and w/a 1-2 foot river
rise anticipated, there could be some ice movement. Attm, major
flooding in not anticipated. Cooler air arriving Friday night
into Saturday should help to alleviate any further threat of ice
breakup.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The preliminary high temperature of 57F in Houlton, Maine this
afternoon broke the previous record high of 51F, set in 1977.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon
for ANZ050>052.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...Cornwell
Long Term...Cornwell
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Cornwell
Marine...CB/Hewitt/Cornwell
Hydrology...Hewitt
Climate...CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1106 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm ridging over the East Coast has arrived and will continue
until a cold front crosses on Friday. A series of cold fronts
Friday through the weekend will gradually usher in a cooler air
mass with gusty, possibly strong at times, northwest winds. The
strongest front arrives Sunday. High pressure arrives during the
first half of the next work week, but the active weather pattern
threatens the area with precipitation during the second half of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1100 PM Update...Wildly fluctuating temperatures around the
region this evening based on who`s mixing and who is not. For
example, our weather balloon shelter here at the office is
currently 56 degrees while just a couple of miles down the road
in a low spot in New Gloucester it`s 34 degrees. KHIE rose 20
degrees in less that 1 hour. This is a common theme around the
region at this time. The low level jet continues to strengthen
at this hour and is expected to do so into the early overnight
hours. Therefore, it`s likely that many spots in the 30s and 40s
right now will eventually pop in to the 50s for a short time.
Cold front passes through after 06z with gusty winds likely in
many areas.
9:45 PM UPDATE... Made some adjustments to temperatures, which
have been tough to pin down this evening as some of the
sheltered valley locations have experienced significant swings.
Some adjustments to sky cover were also made to better align
with satellite imagery, which shows mostly cirrus clouds with
some embedded stratus. Radar shows a line of heavy showers and
embedded thunderstorms across western NY which is associated
with the advancing cold front. While these showers and storms
will weaken before crossing through our area, gusty winds up to
around 30 mph will be possible immediately behind the frontal
passage. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
Previously... 6:45 PM UPDATE... Made some minor
adjustments to forecast temperatures based on trends in surface
observations and model guidance. Satellite imagery shows some
breaks in the cirrus clouds which may briefly allow temperatures
to locally drop rather abruptly but relatively high surface dew
points and increasing winds overnight in association with the
approaching surface cold front will likely prevent them from
falling below freezing in most locations. Latest near-term model
guidance such as the HRRR indicates that there could be locally
strong downsloping winds after midnight across the eastern
slopes and therefore forecast wind gusts were increased some in
this update. The rest of the forecast remains well on track.
Previously... Sfc cold front approaches this evening and
moves through toward daybreak. It could produce a few rain
showers on the mountains, but is expected to go through dry
elsewhere. Given the warm temps this afternoon in places where
onshore flow has minimal effect, and increasing SW flow this
evening, temps will not drop to much with lows mostly in the mid
30s to mid 40s, but even those temps will likely happen closer
to daybreak with the evening being balmy. In the mtns, and the
wrn NH, should see W winds pick up a bit late tonight behind the
front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the front that exits the CWA early Friday, there will be
some cooling, but this is he first in a series of 3 cold
fronts, that work through this weekend. So temps behind are
cooler , but still mostly above normal, and the stronger
westerly flow will allow for good downsloping, which will allow
tempos to mix out behind the front and rise into the mid 50w to
around 60 in SW ME and srn NH, while limited to the the 40s in
the mtns. Also, approaching weak wave from the west, which will
usher in the second front, should prevent temps aloft from
cooling too much. Overall, it looks like a partly sunny day,
with more clouds in the morning.
The second front moves through Fri night, and once again brings
a better threat for showers in the mtns Sat evening. These will
be more in the form of snow showers. There is a better chc that
showers make it further S and E into southern NH and central
ME, but chances are still mostly in the slt chc category, as
wind never really shifts from downsloping. Better cooling aloft
could give some of the showers a more convective and thus
squally feel, but the better chc will be later in the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly benign weather pattern continues through the extended
portion of the forecast, but not without its hiccups mainly this
weekend. Generally speaking, New England will be caught between
a negatively tilted trough stretched over eastern Canada and a
strengthening ridge upstream over the Mississippi River/Ohio
River/Great Lakes basins through the weekend into Monday...
northwest flow brings in a cooler airmass but also gusty winds
which have the potential to be strong. Thereafter, high pressure
briefly builds over the northeast and the upper air pattern
grows more active over the mid-latitudes with numerous waves of
low pressure with potential to impact our region (but low
confidence in timing, impacts, etc.).
The main story this weekend will be wind and snow showers. A steady
train of disturbances moving along the base of Canadian troughing
will provide a couple cold fronts... which allows for good mixing.
This combined with the tightening PGF between maritime low pressure
and upstream high pressure will bring gusty to potentially strong
winds and by extension snow squall chances to the region. As
discussed above one of these fronts crosses Friday night, another
later on Saturday evening into the overnight, and another yet on
Sunday. While each front provides an uptick in winds, the Sunday
fropa will be the one to keep a special eye turned to. The
statistical suite favors Sunday as the windiest day of the
stretch... with wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range being common
over the region and some potential for wind gusts to approach 40
mph in some places. While most clouds and showers should stay
over the mountains late Saturday through Sunday... the snow
squall parameter and Froude number continue to suggest a
favorable environment for showers to track into the lowlands on
Sunday which may cause travel impacts if a proper squall or two
can come together.
The strongest shot of cool air comes on the heels of Sunday`s
front with the h850 thermal trough of around -23C passing
through New England that night. Thus Monday will be the coolest
day of the forecast period with highs in the teens (north) to
near 30 (southern interior/coast). Winds will relax through
Monday as well with high pressure arriving by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR through Fri night, could see W wind
gusts of 20-25kt Friday.
Long Term...The primary aviation impact will be gusty northwest
winds Saturday through Monday with strongest winds up to 35kts
possible on Sunday. VFR will prevail at most terminals except
for MVFR ceilings and local IFR in SN for HIE. There`s an
outside chance of a snow shower to track out of the mountains
toward a southern or eastern TAF site on Sunday. VFR prevails
thereafter with lighter winds by Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Sw winds increase this evening and will see wind
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds shift to W behind a cold front
late tonight, with continues SCA gusts Fri into Fri evening,
with a second front moving through Sat night and potential for
gales before daybreak Saturday.
Long Term...A series of cold fronts crosses the waters Saturday
through Sunday with gusty offshore winds in its wake. A Gale
Watch remains in effect into Saturday, and another will likely
be necessary by late Sunday through Sunday night. Conditions
begin to quiet down again late Monday into Tuesday as high
pressure approaches from the west.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Warm temperatures are expected through Friday. Record warmth has
been observed at Concord so far today and remains possible into
tomorrow for the region. Here`s a look at Friday`s records at
each climate location.
Friday, March 12, 2021
REC HIGH FCST PROB OF BREAKING
PORTLAND 63 in 1973 57 Low chance of breaking record
CONCORD 69 in 2012 57 Unlikely to reach record
AUGUSTA 64 in 2012 54 Unlikely to reach record
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Casey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
833 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
...Mesoscale Update...
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 830 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
A weak line of showers and thunderstorms have pushed south of the
Ohio River this evening. Surface observations have generally
reported wind gusts 25 to 35 mph with an outflow boundary on the
leading edge of this line, but then quickly weakening behind it.
Radar trends over the last few hours have shown this line generally
weakening as it pushes southward, mainly due to waning instability.
Not anticipating any strong/severe storms the remainder of the
overnight hours.
The line of moderate to heavy precipitation along the outflow
boundary has also moved at a fairly modest pace southward, and as a
result has limited precipitation accumulations in any one given
location. Precipitation will still continue to stream in from the
west and southwest, but rates and amounts should be low enough that
flooding issues shouldn`t be a concern for the rest of the overnight
hours.
Issued at 540 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
Showers and thunderstorms have began drifting into portions of
southern IN over the last hour ahead of a cold front. Regional
radars reveal the bulk of this precipitation stretching as far east
as southwestern MO. The strongest convective activity has been
confined to portions of southern MO/IL where an axis of marginal
instability just ahead of the front is co-located with strong deep
layer shear.
Over the next few hours, we will like see a narrow corridor of ~60
degree dewpoints pool up ahead of the cold front as it slowly sinks
southward into southern IN and portions of northern KY. The
increasing low level moisture along with steepening mid level lapse
rates will result in marginal instability generally north of the
Western Kentucky/Bluegrass Parkways for the next several hours. Deep
layer shear will also continue to be strong during this timeframe,
so there will be a low-end threat of organized convection and
isolated strong/severe storms.
The good news in regard to the severe threat is that storm motions
generally support storms moving nearly parallel to the front,
resulting in them ingesting rain-cooled air from other nearby
showers or storms. Storms that have been able to tap into a nearly
`untouched` warm sector have thrived a bit more, like the one that
moved across southeastern MO into southern IL this afternoon. The
timing for any severe threat across southern IN and central KY will
likely occur before midnight, as it appears after midnight we
stabilize enough to keep any severe threat very low.
The other threat to watch will be low-end flooding potential. With
training showers and storms drifting in from the west and southwest,
we could see some quick accumulations over a short period of time.
The cold front should drop south at a fast enough rate to cut off
showers/storms from persisting too long to result in widespread
hydro issues, but can`t rule out some narrow stripes of +2" rain
across southwestern IN and western Kentucky by tomorrow morning.
Flash flood guidance values across these areas are fairly high, so
think any instances of flooding will be isolated.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
Latest sfc analysis places the cold front along the I-70 corridor,
stretching from Indianapolis to St. Louis. Second round of
thunderstorms are firing up just ahead of the boundary in a region
where SBCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Hi-res CAMs seem to be doing
alright with how current radar trends are, but the ARW-East and HRRR
appear to have the best handle on current wx. While KLVX radar is
mostly quiet at the time of writing this, what is developing over
southern IL will be tracking this way by later this afternoon and
into the evening. By 23z-00z or so, expect to see a line of heavier
rain and embedded thunderstorms approach our southern IN counties.
RAP Mesoanalysis and HRRR soundings continue to show a region of
500 J/kg of SBCAPE along the Ohio River early evening ahead of this
second wave of precip that is currently developing to our west.
While CAPE is marginal, abundant wind shear makes up for the slack
and keeps the SPC Marginal Risk along the Ohio River. Model guidance
suggests a region of effective bulk shear around 50 kts and 0-1km
SRH near 150-200 m2/s2. Could see a few stronger storms, but per MD
154, a watch is unlikely at this point.
PWATs of 1" or slightly higher have nosed into Kentucky. Expect to
see these values increase to around 1.2-1.3" this afternoon. SW
winds have been gusty all day, with gusts primarily in the 25-30 mph
range. These gusts will continue until the front passes through,
bringing NW flow in its wake. With SW winds feeding into the
boundary this evening, efficient moisture convergence could support
rain rates of half an inch or more per hour.
Expect to see NW winds first arrive at our NW CWA (Dubois County) by
00z. The front looks to stall across Kentucky as an east-west
oriented boundary overnight. With the boundary remaining parallel to
the upper flow, this will support training showers and thunderstorms
across the region overnight and into tomorrow. From 18-00z tomorrow,
could see the front sag a bit further south, which would help push
the better rain chances south of the parkways. QPF from tonight and
tomorrow ranges from half an inch to just under 2 inches. Higher QPF
is forecast for an area between the I-64 and WKY/Bluegrass Pkwys.
Temps for tonight will remain mild once again since SW flow will
dominate for most of the region. Lows will be in the upper 40s for
our southern IN counties since they should begin to see NW flow and
CAA overnight. Lows will be in the low 50s for central KY, and upper
50s for south-central KY. Highs for tomorrow should be around 60F.
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
==========================================
Synoptic Overview
==========================================
Very large/deep closed upper level low over the southwestern US is
forecast to move eastward into the Plains before lifting northward
and opening up into an open wave by mid-week. This trough axis is
then forecast to shift eastward through the Ohio Valley by mid-late
week. In the Ohio Valley, a stalled out frontal boundary is
forecast to drop southward into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday and
then retreat back northward as a warm front on Sunday. As the upper
level low across the Plains opens up, surface low pressure well to
our northwest will send a likely occluded front through the area in
the Sunday night-Monday time frame. This feature will bring another
round of showers and a few thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall. Unsettled weather is likely to continue until mid-week
when the aforementioned upper trough axis pushes through which
should bring drier weather to the area by late week.
==========================================
Model Discussion and Sensible Weather
==========================================
Overall, the model guidance remains in pretty good agreement in the
first half of the period. At the beginning of the period, a surface
frontal boundary is forecast to bisect the region Friday night
before dropping southward into Tennessee on Saturday. This front is
then forecast to lift back northward as a warm front on Sunday. On
Monday, well defined mid-latitude cyclone will continue to wind up
across the Plains with a large frontal occlusion working across the
region. The GFS v12 and v16 runs have trended slower and agree more
with the Euro solutions here with the best chances of rainfall
looking to be more on Monday now. As this feature works through a
band of moderate to heavy rain showers with some embedded thunder
will push thorugh the region. With decent atmospheric moisture in
the region, another round of heavy rainfall is expected with this
system.
For this forecast, plan on going slightly drier across the region on
Saturday with the front expected to be south of our region and no
strong forcing within the area. While it looks to be mainly dry,
can`t rule out some scattered showers here and there, though the
best chances on Saturday look to be across southern KY in closer
proximity to the front. Scattered showers look to be a good bet on
Sunday as the warm front pushes back northward across the region.
Highs Saturday should remain in the mid-upper 50s. Readings on
Sunday will likely exhibit a gradient initially with highs in the
upper 40s to the low 50s across southern IN and northern Kentucky
with upper 50s to near 60 along the KY/TN border. Temperatures are
likely to rise throughout the night on Sunday as the warm front
surges northward.
Complex of showers and a few thunderstorms will move eastward and
into the region on Monday ahead of the frontal boundary. Good lift
along the front and plenty of moisture should result in another
round of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. A solid 1-2
inches of rain will be possible in this time frame. Lingering
showers could continue into the day on Tuesday. Depending on how
much rainfall we get from round one in the short term period will
strongly influence how much hydrologic issues we could see early
next week. Excessive rainfall will lead to some runoff with some
flooding being possible during the period. Overall, there remains a
substantial risk of quick rises on area creeks and streams early
next week.
Significant differences in the forecast emerge by Wednesday as the
Euro, having an open wave aloft, quickly pushes a front through the
region with much drier weather for the remainder of the week.
Meanwhile, the GFS is much slower bringing another tightly wound up
surface cyclone through the region in the late Wed/Thu time frame.
Given the differences here, have generally gone with the blend of
the GFS ensemble and Euro ensemble which generally smooth out the
differences in the Wed/Thu time frame. The good news here is that a
period of drier weather looks likely for the end of the week and
into next weekend.
Highs on Monday should top out in the low-mid 50s across southern
Indiana and the northern half of KY. Low-mid 60s look likely across
southern Kentucky. Behind the front on Tuesday, we`re not expecting
much in the way of a cool down with highs remaining in the upper 50s
to the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 50s are expected on Wednesday
with cooler air arriving around Thursday with highs only reaching
the lower-mid 50s. Overnight lows through the period will average
in the 40s-low 50s. Temps by Friday morning could drop back to
around freezing.
==========================================
Weather/Societal Impacts
==========================================
In terms of weather impacts, main impact here will be the rainfall
for late Sunday through the day on Monday. The moderate to heavy
rainfall may lead to quick rises on creeks, streams, rivers within
the area given the expected rainfall plus the rainfall from the
earlier time periods. Residents in low-lying areas or near creeks
and streams should keep an eye on water levels this weekend and into
next week.
==========================================
Forecast Confidence
==========================================
Temperatures through the period : Moderate
Moderate/Heavy Rainfall late Sun into Mon : Moderate-High
Risk of severe weather : Low
Risk of hydrologic issues early next week : Low-Moderate
Mid to late week forecast evolution : Low
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
A cold front is draped across far southern Illinois and Indiana this
evening. Widespread moderate to heavy showers with embedded TSRA
likely during the first 6 hours of the TAF period at HNB/SDF/LEX.
Waning instability after midnight will result in more of a showery
overnight period with less thunder. HNB/SDF/LEX will see several
hours steady showers overnight as the front stalls over the region.
The front continues to very slowly sink south, bringing prevailing -
SHRA to BWG by mid to late morning on Friday.
Narrow corridor of MVFR ceilings currently being observed along the
front, and these lower ceilings will affect HNB and SDF. As the band
of stratus sinks south overnight and into Friday, the IFR conditions
are likely to expand and impact BWG and LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...DM
Short Term...CJP
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
600 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
Updated to cancel the Red Flag Warning for Las Animas County.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
...Potential for some patchy Freezing Drizzle tonight El Paso county
but expecting warm ground to minimize impacts...
Upper low across southern CA will slowly migrate southeastward into
western AZ/southern CA during the afternoon. This puts the forecast
area under strong southwest flow aloft. Cold front across the
plains has held in with temperatures only warming into the 50s.
Southerly winds off the Raton Ridge have dried surface dew points to
near critical thresholds around KTAD, but so far have stayed just
shy. Latest runs of the HRRR have backed off on northern extent of
the drying moving off the Raton Ridge but being within 3% of
critical humidity thresholds at KTAD...will hang on to the Red Flag
Warning along the Raton Ridge through the early evening as there is
still time for sufficient drying to take place. Areal extent may be
more limited to southern portions of Las Animas County.
Overnight...cooler air makes a push back westward with another round
of stratus developing across the southeast plains. Some
WAA/overrunning will produce some rain showers across the eastern
plains towards morning while shallow upslope/saturation across El
Paso county could produce some areas of freezing drizzle or flurries
towards morning. Depth of moisture in model soundings suggests ice
processes won`t be present with super cooled liquid the primary
result in and near the Palmer Divide. Fortunately with residual heat
in the ground think this will mitigate impacts quite a bit with
mainly light patchy icing on cold surface the main risk. Therefore
no highlights expected. Scattered showers will be possible along the
Continental Divide as well, but any precipitation will be light at
this point given main forcing is still well off to the west.
Friday will be a transition day across southern Colorado. Models
have delayed the onset of precipitation some but with overrunning
overtop the cold front Friday expect showers to break out across
portions of the plains during the afternoon with emphasis across the
Pikes Peak region given good south southeasterly fetch and
orographic component. Will also see snow showers expand across the
mountains along the Continental Divide as forcing approaches from
the southwest and area comes under better upper level difluence in
the afternoon. It will be windy once more across the mountains and
San Luis Valley. Southeast plains will see increasing easterly flow
as it feels the affects of the approaching low to the west but gusts
will be around 20 kts in the afternoon as compared to 30 to 40 kts
out west. Clouds will likely hang in and increase into the
afternoon across the southeast mountains as upslope flow
strengthens. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
1) A High Impact Winter Storm starting Friday night and continuing
through the Weekend, with heavy snow, strong winds and potential
blizzard conditions across portions of south central and southeast
Colorado.
2) Uncertainty continues on exact timing and track of the system
leading to uncertainty on snow amounts.
3) Potential for a few strong thunderstorms across the southeast
plains.
A Pacific storm system spinning off the California Coast continues
to be forecast to slowly move north and east across across the
Desert Southwest through the day on Friday. While models continue to
differ on timing and track with this cut off system, the initially
slightly slower and further south solution of EC/EPS and Canadian
models, where the cut off low is moving into the Four Corners region
Saturday morning continues to the preferred solution at this time.
With this preferred solution in mind, we have expanded winter storm
watches across the rest of the higher terrain and upgraded the
winter storm watches for Pikes Peak and Teller County, as well as
northern El Paso County, to a winter storm warning at this time.
Friday night-Saturday...This initial track across the Colorado/New
Mexico border through the day Saturday would bring a round of
moderate to heavy precipitation across south central and southeast
Colorado, favoring the areas over and near the higher terrain with
increasing and deep (Sfc-H7) east to southeast flow. Snow levels
look to remain relatively high (5500-6500) with mixed precipitation
across the I-25 corridor and rain across the far southeast plains.
Increasing southerly flow and waa aloft ahead of this system will
also lead to increasing instability across the eastern Plains which
would support the potential for thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday morning, along with the potential for strong to
marginally severe storms across the far southeast Plains later
Saturday, as a developing surface low lifts out across the plains.
Snowfall amounts through the period look to range from 4 to 8 inches
across the higher terrain areas, with 1 to 4 inches possible across
the valley locales and lower elevations, though relatively warm
southerly flow aloft and daytime temperatures may limit
accumulations across the lower elevations.
Saturday night-Monday...Deformation band precipitation spreads east
Saturday night, with the vertically stacked system across the
southeast plains Sunday morning, before slowly lifting north and
east into west central Kansas Sunday night. Moderate to heavy snow
is expected to develop over and near the higher terrain Saturday
night, with strong northerly winds expected to develop on the back
of system, which will keep heavy snow and blowing in place across
the Pikes Peak region through the day Sunday before slowly
diminishing Sunday night into early Monday morning, as the system
continues to move east. There is likely going to be precipitation
wrapping around the backside of the low extending into across the
southeast Plains, though with the uncertainty of the track of the
system, there remains uncertainty on how much, what form and how far
south this precipitation will extend. Again, with a relatively warm
system and temperatures expected to be in the 40s to around 50
across the far southeast plains, most of this precipitation would be
in form of rain at this time. Snow totals through this timeframe
look to range for 6 to 12 inches across the higher terrain, greatest
across the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region, where expected
conditions may warrant the upgrade of the the current winter storm
warning to a blizzard warning, as travel may become difficult to
impossible.
Although current watches and warnings are in place across south
central and southeast Colorado, there still remains uncertainty of
the track of this cutoff low pressure system which could increase or
decrease snow totals and impacts across all of south central and
southeast Colorado. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts and
updates to this significant winter storm system.
Monday night-Thursday...Another storm system looks to move across
the region in the late Monday night through Wednesday timeframe,
however latest models indicate significant differences on its
strength and location as it moves across the Rockies. For now, NBM
keeps slight and chance pops across the area through this period,
with the best pops over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Mar 11 2021
VFR conditions currently dominate all TAF sites. There is going to
be an increasing cloud deck later on this evening due to some low
level moisture advecting in for KCOS and KPUB as the winds become
more easterly. LIFR conditions will more that likely be the case for
KCOS after around 08Z due to low CIGs near the surface and low VIS
in FZFG, and there is the potential for this cloud deck to become
thick enough to cause some -FZDZ as well. KPUB will also see low
CIGs but should remain at around 010 AGL. There is also a slight
chance for -FZDZ at KPUB as well although the vertical depth of the
low level moisture does not appear to be as significant as further
to the north. The low clouds will begin break by around 15Z for KCOS
and 17Z for KPUB, respectively, although some MVFR conditions could
still be possible for a few hours after. Some -SHSN are possible
over the San Juan and Sawatch Mountains, so be advised of reduce VIS
if flying at lower levels in the vicinity of these areas.
Winds will also continue to be a little strong and gusty at KALS out
of the southwest and for KCOS and KPUB out of the south-southeast,
until later this evening, therefore some light to moderate CAT could
be possible at lower levels. winds will diminish throughout the
night and then increase again by tomorrow morning but should not be
as strong as they were today. Still there could be some light CAT
for larger aircraft and moderate CAT for smaller aircraft after
around 17Z for KALS, and 19Z for KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Sunday
night for COZ059-062-072>080-083-085.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
night for COZ058-060-061-063-066-068.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM MST Friday to 6 AM MDT Monday
for COZ081-082.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday
for COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
511 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021
Today is pretty much a repeat of yesterday across West Central
Texas, with mild and breezy conditions prevailing across the
area. Low clouds from this morning have scattered out somewhat
this afternoon, but a band of high level clouds continues to
stream eastward across much of the region. Where the cloud cover
is a little thinner temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s.
Otherwise, temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 70s.
Expect another very mild night with low clouds spreading back into
the area. Lows will generally be in the 60s. Models indicate a
weak shortwave in the southwest flow aloft brushing the
northwestern Big Country overnight with some mid level instability
noted in model soundings. However, high res model guidance
including the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF do not show much if any
convective development for our area. Thus, have capped PoPs at
20% for tonight. Tomorrow will again be warm and breezy under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With no apparent shortwaves or
areas of lift moving overhead have kept mentionable PoPs out of
the forecast although can`t rule a very light isolated shower.
Otherwise, look for highs back into the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021
An upper level low over Southern California Friday evening will
strengthen as it moves into Arizona early Saturday morning, then
into the New Mexico/Colorado border Saturday afternoon, then
slowing down and becoming mostly stationary across eastern
Colorado and continuing to strengthen Saturday night through
Sunday evening, before the low finally moves east across the
Central Plains during the day Monday. Meanwhile at the surface
Friday night/early Saturday morning, a north-to-south oriented dry
line will exist across the NM/TX border and south into the Big
Bend region. During the day Saturday, a Pacific cold-front will
approach from the west, merge with the dry-line in the afternoon,
and move east across West Central Texas through late Saturday
night. In advance of the cold front, dew points in the warm sector
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures rising
into the mid to upper 70s, due to warm and moist south to
southeasterly flow continuing. ML CAPEs look to increase to around
500-1000 J/KG by the afternoon. This instability will combine with
the aforementioned moisture and lift from the nearby low to create
thunderstorms along the cold front as it moves through the region
late Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night, with any
storms likely pushing east of our eastern counties by sunrise
Sunday. Models are indicating the storm- mode to be
that of a squall line, and with 0-6 km bulk shear of 60-75 KT,
some storms could be strong to severe, so SPC has most of our
region in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with damaging winds
and large hail the main threats. Before the likely squall line
moves through, there could also be some isolated showers/storms
developing in the late morning/afternoon.
Expect dry weather on Sunday with sunny skies and westerly
surface/low level flow. The dry air coming in behind the front
(dewpoints dropping into the high teens to mid 20s), combined with
gusty wind speeds of around 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph,
could bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
Sunday. With the warm, downsloping, dry winds, expect highs in the
low 70s.
Mostly dry weather expected Monday through Thursday of next week,
with generally zonal flow aloft. Expect a warming trend Monday
through Tuesday, with warm south to southwest flow and warming of
the 850 mb thermal ridge. Then a dry cold front looks to come
through some-time late Tues or Wed, with big differences in the
timing from the models. Depending on the strength of the cold
front, it could drop highs into the low 50s or low 60s for a day
or two.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021
Stratus is forecast to develop at the southern 3 sites around 06Z,
then spread north to the KSJT and KABI between 07Z and 09Z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. Ceilings may lower into the IFR
category after 09Z, especially at the southern 3 sites. Expect the
stratus to persist through the morning hours, with VFR conditions
returning by mid to late afternoon Friday. Gusty southeast winds
will decrease this evening, then become south at 10 to 15 knots,
with higher gusts, by late morning Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 79 61 78 / 10 5 10 30
San Angelo 63 80 61 78 / 5 5 5 30
Junction 63 79 60 78 / 10 5 5 20
Brownwood 62 79 60 77 / 5 5 5 20
Sweetwater 61 78 63 76 / 20 10 20 40
Ozona 59 77 60 75 / 5 5 5 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...Daniels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A nearly stationary cold front extends from SE OK northeastward into
NW AR between XNA and FYV. The latest IR images have shown a
gradual warming of cloud tops across SW MO after fairly cool cloud
tops an hour ago with a fair amount of lightning being observed.
A line of cumulus just north of the surface front was noted across
far NE OK and far NW AR. Cloud top temperatures across far NE OK
and far NW AR have stayed fairly consistent over the past several
hours which is consistent with radar imagery of the overall
shower activity. Spotty shower activity was noted close to the
front across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Showers,
especially across far NE OK and far NW AR, have become a little
more cellular in nature with locally small intensification of
cores being observed. With that said, these showers are still
relatively weak, but this strengthening trend is expected to
continue through the night as the low level jet strengthens
allowing for better shear and for better moisture. Also, as the
night progresses, the nearly stationary front will slowly begin to
move northward effectively transitioning to a warm front. Showers
and storms are expected to focus around this boundary where shear
and lift will be maximized. As for instability, MUCAPE and MLCAPE
values are relatively weak in the 250 to 500J/kg range and 100 to
250J/kg range respectively with not much of an increase expected
overnight.
The overall strong to severe storm threat for tonight continues to
be fairly limited at this time owing largely to surface CIN and
low CAPE. The latest CAM solutions continue to not be overly
excited about convection in our CWA through the night with the NAM
Nest being a little more bullish with storms tonight. At the time
of writing the NAM Nest had a line of storms along I-44 at 03Z but
the latest observations obviously show this is not the case. The
HRRR and the rest of the HREF CAM suite has been fairly consistent
with shower activity (pretty similar to what is currently being
observed) slowly strengthening into isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms through the night with peak strength below severe
limits in most cases. With that said, there is a small chance for
a storm (maybe two) to quickly intensify and briefly produce
large hail up to quarter size or a brief damaging wind gust to
60mph. Northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas would be the
most likely areas to experience severe weather.
In terms of the forecast changes, opted to adjust PoPs a little over
the next several hours based on the latest trends and guidance.
Temperatures were also raised a little across NE OK where
temperatures will be slow to fall thanks to cloud cover with
small dew point depressions and rainfall/thunderstorms passing
through the night. An update has already been sent.
Snider
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 62 58 72 / 80 80 90 50
FSM 62 73 58 75 / 40 60 60 20
MLC 59 73 60 74 / 40 50 50 10
BVO 46 57 54 69 / 70 90 90 70
FYV 56 69 56 71 / 80 70 90 40
BYV 52 66 55 66 / 80 70 90 60
MKO 54 70 59 73 / 60 70 70 30
MIO 47 57 55 69 / 80 90 100 70
F10 52 71 61 74 / 60 70 70 30
HHW 62 74 60 75 / 10 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21