Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/10/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 A mix of clouds over the area tonight as low clouds stream from northwest towards the southeast, while high clouds stream over the area from southwest to northeast. So, long story short, its cloudy out over most areas. Going forecast has this handled well. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 For early evening update have added some low snow chances over the far north for the next few hours as observations just north of the border are indicating a little bit of snow. Have also increased cloud cover through the area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be precipitation chances late this afternoon and this evening north and west, then Wednesday through Wednesday night south. A surface low is located over east central North Dakota with wrap around moisture containing rain/snow showers along the International Border and into far northeast Montana. The southern half of ND remains partly cloudy to mostly sunny, but winds here have picked up and expect breezy to at times windy conditions through the afternoon and into early this evening. For the most part, expect any precipitation to remain along the far north. However, a few late afternoon showers are possible in the far west given the increased moisture advecting into the area, with steep late afternoon lapse rates. Tonight...High pressure builds into the northwest and our northwest flow in the evening turns more northerly overnight and northeast to east early Wednesday morning. This will help bring cloud cover southward and should cover most of the forecast area with MVFR to IFR ceilings (see Aviation discussion). Latest RAP and HRRR also bring some lower visibilities into western ND late tonight, likely along the western fringes of any low level stratus deck. Will add a mention of patchy fog west. Wednesday and Wednesday night the attention shifts to our southern border as a shortwave just moving onto the California coast will make it`s way into the northern/central High Plains late tonight into Wednesday morning, then into west central Minnesota by 00 UTC Thursday. This will bring a swath of precipitation to mainly South Dakota but will clip the far southern James River Valley into southeast ND. We utilized the NBM blend for pops with WPC qpf. Looking at the WPC ensemble solutions there remains quite a bit of spread, with some ensembles placing moderate qpf as far north as Jamestown and Carrington, while others keep qpf practically out of the CWA. A blended solution with WPC qpf seems reasonable at this time, which would bring 2-4 inches of snow to far southeast portions of Dickey County, with maybe an inch or two from Southern Mcintosh to eastern Lamoure counties, and the remainder of Dickey County. This would still leave time for a possible advisory should snow amounts shift a bit north as At this time it looks like the accumulating snow would probably hold off until Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Precipitation exits the James River Valley late Wednesday evening with high pressure building over the northern forecast area on Thursday behind a northern stream shortwave. This will bring much colder temperatures aloft into the northern forecast area during the day, making for a much colder afternoon along the International Border (25 to 30 degrees) compared to the southern tier counties (middle 40s). Given our time of year would not be surprised to see a few rain/snow showers, mainly north central into eastern ND, but at this time our blended guidance is not producing anything. Will not add any precip at this time but will pass it along to monitor as there could be a period of winds/snow showers Thursday afternoon. Beyond Thursday it`s looking more and more like a period of mild and dry weather through the upcoming weekend with a high over low blocking pattern taking shape over the central portion of the U.S. North Dakota will be under the strong upper ridge extending from the northern plains well north into Canada, with a cutoff low tracking slowly from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains by Sunday. Our NBM Ensemble spread fairly reasonable Friday into Saturday with temperatures warming well into the 50s southwest and south central Saturday, likely the warmest day of the extended period. On Sunday you can see the spread increase a bit, which is reasonable given the the upper level pattern at this time. A Eastern Pacific upper level trough is the kicker that pushes the southern Plains low east, but how this eventually occurs, is the issue. This can be seen in the NBM temperature Ensembles that develop by next week. A modest spread early in the weekend, increases a bit Sunday, then significantly widens next Monday through Wednesday with on the order of 20 to 30 degrees difference between the 25th and 75 percentiles for max temperature. Looking at the cluster analysis for this period indicates that any one of the for cluster solutions remains possible, including the wettest solution. However given the background flow this high over low blocking pattern, this seems like it may be a less likely solution, but yet within the envelope of possible solutions. Therefore we will hold off on any changes in the extended period. The NBM solution does bring some slight chance pops into the south Sunday evening, then slight chance pops north and chance pops south on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 635 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Widespread MVFR with localized IFR ceilings expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings will improve from north to south Wednesday morning, but will remain MVFR through the day over the far south. Snow is expected over the southern James River Valley on Wednesday, which may result in MVFR to IFR visibility at times. Most snow will remain south of KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
533 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 ...Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Tonight: The dry air early this afternoon has seen a boost in dewpoints with the strong southerly winds advecting in an airmass with higher theta- e. As a result, RH values have reached above 50 percent late this afternoon. The winds are still quite gusty though, still making for fire weather related concerns. Burning today is still discouraged. With the push of greater moisture, there could be some fog concerns in areas that cool off rapidly. However, temperatures will not drastically drop off tonight, and the flow should remain strong enough to mix out any fog development. Only areas areas blocked from wind may see visibility reductions. Because of the large number of limiting factors, have kept fog out of the official forecast for this evening. Wednesday and Thursday: Ahead of the deeper trough over the western CONUS a short-wave trough has ejected out ahead of it within the broad southwest flow. H5 winds have increased to around 50-60 kts with this feature, and a decent amount of cyclonic vorticity has developed. At the surface lee cyclogenesis has begun, with WAA and dCVA lining up favorably to allow the cyclone to deepen. This will continue to enhance the low- level southerly flow through, and likely enhance the development of the LLJ through the early morning hours. Isentropic ascent will begin early Wednesday morning as the cyclone tracks toward the northeast along with the short-wave trough. Most of the available guidance depicts some pre-frontal surface troughing along in the northeast quadrant of the system, which will put a kink in the low- level flow early on. CAMs have been pointing to elevated convection developing in west-central Iowa and moving toward the northeast. Mid- level lapse rates will be between 6.5-7.5 C/km, with moderate wind shear during this time that may support the development of small hail. MUCAPE may be a bit difficult to come by though early in the morning, which would limit the threat for severe storms with the first round in the morning. By the middle of the afternoon, CAMs and synoptic models show a dry slot working through the area. Expect to see a break at least from precipitation at some point, but the big question will be how much lingering cloud cover there is from early morning convection. Behind the surface cyclone, a stronger cold front will be trailing. In previous days, the better wind shear and helicity was mainly behind the cold front and displaced from the stronger convergence that would trigger thunderstorm development. However, over the past 12-18 hours, the HRRR especially has been developing a better shear environment just ahead of the cold front that could result in organizing a slightly stronger line of storms. However, instability will the biggest question. If the dry slot clears out lingering cloud cover, SBCAPE values could reach as high as 1500 J/kg by Wednesday late afternoon ahead of the cold front. A few models do have this, but the mean of the 12z HREF struggles to reach 1000 J/kg. Should this instability be realized and storms develop ahead of the boundary in an environment with 0-6 km bulk shear of 50 kts and 0-1 km SRH between 150-200 m^2/s^2, an isolated severe storm is possible. Hail around 1" could develop, and a spin- up or two may materialize. Again though, this is conditional on having this instability. As is typical with early Spring setups, the deep layer shear is there but ability to destabilize the convective boundary layer is questionable. There was discussion with SPC and our neighboring offices this afternoon regarding the strong cold front and slightly better shear environment. With the questionable instability, the marginal risk will be kept mainly over Missouri for the Day 2 outlook. If the system continues to trend in the direction that the 12z HRRR started though, an expansion of this marginal risk may become necessary. If a severe threat is to develop, it appears now it will have a narrow window to do so, at least for our forecast area. Thursday, cold front passes through and surface high pressure moves in to clear out conditions, and bring cooler temperatures. Friday and Beyond: Surface high pressure will be rather strong, and now will keep a second system mainly south of Iowa on Friday. The furthest southern counties may see a trace amount of precipitation, but the trend continues for this to push southward. For the rest of the area, looking at dry and cool conditions through much of the weekend. A bigger system is forecast to move thorugh Sunday into Monday. 12z deterministic GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat better agreement on the track, but in the ensembles there is still spread in QPF and snowfall amounts. Temperatures with this system will be cool enough where if precipitation does happen, it will eventually turn to snow. Accumulating snow will be possible, but at this time there is too much spread to pinpoint exact details. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Strongest winds and gusts have eased late this afternoon with peak mixing loss, but may continue to see around 20 to 25 kt gusts over the next couple of hours. Overnight, cloud cover will increase and ceilings will drop as low pressure encroaches on the area, eventually settling into widespread MVFR territory around/after 06z with IFR possible. Precipitation chances will also ramp up around/after 06z and linger around most TAF sites, potentially through the remainder of the period. Greatest precipitation chances will be around KFOD/KMCW/KALO as the warm front settles into northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Curtis
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
531 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 318 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2021 Key messages: - Strong winds are possible overnight but are expected soon after sunrise tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible tomorrow evening into the overnight. Detailed discussion... A strong low-level jet will develop overnight as a trough deepens across the western states. Strong moisture advection should lead to some cloud cover and possibly some showers overnight into tomorrow morning before that activity lifts to the north. It`s possible that overnight, if mixing remains deep enough, that some strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph develop overnight. It`s more likely that after sunrise tomorrow morning, wind gusts will quickly increase with gusts of 40 to 50. What makes this uncertain, still, is the potential for thicker lower-level clouds and their inhibiting deeper mixing. The NAM tends to have a thicker and lower cloud base that inhibits how deep mixing is and thus limits wind potential. The GFS, while still developing clouds, is higher with the base and higher with the mixing and as a result is stronger with the wind gusts. The RAP and the HRRR are more like the GFS but stronger overall. Have trended toward a RAP/HRRR/GFS approach. This keeps winds gusty overnight but really increases them after sunrise tomorrow into tomorrow afternoon. Given the potential for strong winds, have issued a wind advisory for the western two-thirds of the forecast area from 13Z to 23Z tomorrow. With very strong winds aloft tonight into tomorrow, and the potential for showery activity with the strong moisture advection, it`s possible for some of these showers to bring down some of the strong winds aloft leading to locally higher wind gusts with a passing shower. A cold front will track into the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The air mass this front is advancing into will be capped during the day with a narrow corridor low CAPE available just ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show elevated convection could develop during the evening hours. While instability is limited, due to weak lapse rates, and elevated, shear in the elevated layer is still rather strong. Forcing along the front, may be enough to overcome the cap over the area though and given the strong shear in the elevated layer, could lead to strong to severe storms late in the evening. Overnight though, as cold air advances further south and erodes the warmer air aloft, more widespread convection is anticipated. Anomalously high precipitable water values, between 2 and 3 standard deviations above normal, may lead to areas of heavy rain once convection is able to get going overnight. This old likely be in the souther portions of the forecast area when this occurs. The cold front responsible for this activity will stall to our south and lead to several other chances for heavy rain and storms through the remainder of the week. This looks mainly focused over the southern portions of the forecast area and especially southern MO. It`s not until the early part of next week, Sunday into Monday, that the main upper trough moves east into the area. This looks like it will bring widespread precipitation to the area early next week and some potential for snow across northern MO as temperatures dip into the mid 30s across the northern portions of the forecast area. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 528 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2021 overnight wind and low level wind shear forecast will be difficult. Going forecast kept wind gusts pretty high for overnight standards, and there isn`t much disagreement with the new forecast, as the low level atmosphere looks to be plenty gusty overnight. Model guidance also suggest gusts will maintain through the night. However, should the surface winds come down to around 10 kts or lower the 50+ kt jet just off the surface will become quite problematic for wind shear concerns. Made only minor tweaks to the forecast for this run, but after monitoring the early to mid evening trends may need to make some wholesale changes to the forecast overnight. && .Fire Weather... Issued at 358 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021 Strong southerly winds are expected both today and Wednesday. With strong moisture return today, the relatively humidity values are only expected to fall to 40-45 percent this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain brisk through the overnight hours tonight, and becoming increasingly gusty on Wednesday during the day gusting to near 35-40 knots. Low lying stratus that is expected to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may lead to light rainfall/drizzle, though the precipitation is not expected to amount to more than a few hundredths of an inch till Wednesday evening. The strong winds both days will lead to a high-very high fire danger. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054. && $$ Discussion...CDB Aviation...Leighton Fire Weather...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 As often happens with record breaking temperatures, we`ll see big changes in the weather in the upcoming 24 to 36 hours as much colder air (and snow) work into the area. The main forecast concerns are the potential for accumulating snow late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the small chance for thunderstorms and severe weather over the southeast portion of the area Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Temperatures have warmed nicely today, although the warming has been delayed along the I-35 corridor where a thick patch of clouds was present through around noon. Warmer temperatures are apparent west and east of that corridor at the current time, with mostly sunny skies under a canopy of cirrus. Temperatures should manage to inch up a bit more through around 4 PM before cooling off, then the upstream cold front will move through most of the area tonight. The front will stall late tonight from around Albert Lea through Eau Claire, and a developing surface low will move northeast along that baroclinic zone on Wednesday. There remains some disagreement with where exactly the low will track, which hinges on how far the front makes it tonight and how much the surface low intensifies Wednesday (with the stronger solutions being farther north/west). Its position will help determine where the axis of heaviest snow will be in the west/north portion of the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Didn`t change the going forecast too much in that regard, with plowable snow still in the forecast from west central into central Minnesota. Subsequent forecasts should be able to better pin down location and amounts, with a winter weather advisory likely forthcoming later tonight for a portion of the area. Across the southeast part of the forecast area, thunderstorms will be a concern Wednesday into early Wednesday evening, and the surface low track will play a role in their location as well as whether or not any severe weather occurs. There is some possibility that we`ll see a pocket of instability (with MLCAPE AOA 500 J/kg) work into the southeast portion of the area Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Forecast hodographs are impressive, with low-level (0-1 km) SRH in excess of 300 m^2/s^2. However, there is significant uncertainty with this forecast, so it will simply need to be watched tonight into Wednesday. The southeast portion of the area would be favored from a synoptic perspective given the forecast track of the surface low from the RAP and NAM, but boundary layer temperatures will dictate whether or not convection will be rooted there and able to take advantage of the strong shear which is forecast. If it`s able to do so, then some isolated severe weather would be possible (damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado from any low topped supercell that`s able to form in such an environment). At this point it appears to be a low probability potential, but will bear watching. The system will move northeast Wednesday night, taking precipitation with it, and most of the area should be precipitation-free by Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 As we pick up the extended portion of the forecast, the Low Pressure system is on the way out of the area over the northern Great Lakes, and as it continues to move eastwards we will see broad high pressure begin to move in behind it. This broad area of high pressure will ride the northern edge of an upper level jet, pushing towards the Great Lakes and out of the area by the middle of Sunday, as a broad trough swings northeastwards from the central Rockies. As this trough continues to move and strengthen, a broad surface low will develop and affect the central and northern plains beginning late Sunday and continuing into Monday before diminishing. Right now the trajectory of the trough would keep the center of the low fairly far to the south in southern Iowa to northern Missouri, which would keep most of the sensible weather down that direction as well. GEFS ensemble members have a QPF range of anywhere from about an inch to nothing at all, with an average of around 3 or 4 tenths of an inch. This will of course change going forward as we clue in on the track of the system and the overall amount of moisture available. There is also the question of precipitation type, and for now that remains just as much an uncertainty given the unknown track. Temperature wise it looks like we remain above freezing, but only just on Monday morning, so overall scenario right now would be rain for most, with a chance for a zone of mixed precipitation trending towards snow on the northernmost portions of the area. More details should become available as we get a bit closer, especially once we resolve the system moving through the short term period. Otherwise, with a couple slow meandering systems, we shouldn`t expect any major shakeups over the rest of the period in terms of sensible weather. Most days will see a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for highs and low to mid 30s for lows which climate wise would be just a bit below normal, as highlighted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day Climate Prediction Center outlooks. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 619 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 VFR conditions will persists into the overnight hours, but ceilings drop to MVFR tomorrow morning and eventually to IFR as widespread rain spreads north across the region. Some breaks in the rain are possible during the afternoon, but generally expect an extended period of IFR ceilings and visibility from the late morning into the late afternoon. Isolated thunder is possible across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin so have included a prob30 mention for now, but confidence is low overall for the thunder risk at any particular site. The rain is expected to changeover to snow at AXN by late afternoon tomorrow, but will hold off until the end of the period at other central MN sites. KMSP...Fairly high confidence on the arrival time of precipitation tomorrow morning, but still unwritten on how long rain will fall during the morning and afternoon. Expect IFR visibility during the rainfall with ceilings also dropping to IFR during the late morning. A few breaks are expected at times, but should fill back in fairly quickly. An isolated rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled out as well, but overall chances look low. Rain could change over to light snow late Wednesday night as the precipitation diminishes, but little or no accumulation is expected. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thursday...MVFR early, becoming VFR. NW wind 5-15 kts becoming W. Friday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kts. Saturday...VFR. W wind 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...TDH AVIATION...ETA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
651 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 520 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2021 Mostly sunny skies and warm southerly winds allowed temperatures to warm to 60F at several sites across the western U.P. this afternoon. Warm southerly winds continue overnight ahead of an approaching negatively tilted shortwave that is the main feature of interest in the short term. Southerly winds continue overnight ahead of a weak cold front dropping south across the area Wednesday morning. The pre-frontal air mass will be characterized by dew point temperatures well above freezing, which is likely to produce fog over existing snow cover. Additional lift provided by the passing cold front could produce a brief period of dense fog. A moist post-frontal air mass will likely prolong fog for areas favored by northerly upslope flow. Synoptic scale lift increases on Wednesday as the negatively tilted shortwave accelerates to the northeast resulting in a deepening sub- 1000mb low tracking across the CWA. Isentropic lift combined with mid-level frontogenesis results in a swath of generally 0.50-1.00 inches of QPF that is expected to fall primarily as rain. However, the lowest layer of the atmosphere is marginally cold enough for precipitation type problems across higher elevations of the western CWA. Raw model guidance (except the ECMWF) produces up to 3/4" of QPF with surface temperatures below freezing indicating potential for substantial ice accretion. However, warm antecedent temperatures, a deep warm nose aloft, marginally cold boundary layer temperatures, and potential for heavy precipitation rates suggests relatively slow ice accretion rates. Colder air arriving late Wednesday night will allow precipitation to change over to snow with up to 2 inches expected by Thursday morning. It`s worth mentioning that recent HRRR and NAM-nest model guidance has enough elevated instability to support an isolated clap of thunder, but did not include it in the grids at this time. If thunderstorms do develop Wednesday afternoon and evening then more substantial hydro hazards may occur. However, current expectations are for localized ponding on area roadways. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 403 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2021 Long term period this shift will begin at 12z Thursday. At this point the earlier mentioned surface low should over central Lake Superior with the 700mb low over the Arrowhead with stout fgen maximum/deformation zone extending into Ontario. Across western Lake Superior, winds should become northwest, allowing for some moisture with upslope enhancement into the Keweenaw to be possible into the early afternoon. Initially a wintry mix will transition to snow as the low lifts out and the cold air sufficiently cools the column. In the central and east, any lingering precip in the morning would likely be rain. Mid-upper level ridging will build in behind the departing system allowing subsidence to eventually take over and help clear out the skies by evening. Thursday highs should top out in the upper 30s in the west and low 40s east. Overnight lows look to be in the upper teens in the interior west half and 20s in the east and by the lakeshores. A shortwave looks to drop southeast through Lake Superior beginning early on Friday. Strong CAA will help send 850mb temps down to around -15 to -18C. Increasing low level lapse rates and sharp pressure rises will allow for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. This will likely contribute to widespread westerly to northwesterly breezy conditions. With stronger winds over eastern Lake Superior, the northwest winds could build waves high enough to create some lakeshore flooding east of Munising by evening. The colder airmass will also result in more seasonable daytime highs in the 30s with maybe some low 40s in Menominee County. With this front being devoid of much moisture, the better precip chances look to be on the north end of Lake Superior. Little ambiguity is expected in the forecast across the region through the weekend as a predominately dry air mass sits overhead. With gradual warming at 850mb expected, daytime highs in the 30s on Saturday will return back into the 40s west and south and upper 30s north and east on Sunday. Through the weekend, an upper level low will very slowly eject out of the central Rockies. The structure of the feature is a little uncertain, but it appears to linger over the Northern Plains on Monday. Guidance is suggesting some snow could move into the region late in the day on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 649 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2021 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the night at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. In addition, low-level jet ahead of an approaching cold front will also lead to LLWS. This LLWS will end from w to e overnight into early Wed morning. Southerly flow advecting moisture northward thru the night will bring MVFR cigs to all terminals prior to daybreak with cigs lowering further to IFR by mid morning. Shra will also spread quickly northward into the area during the morning. During the aftn, IFR conditions will prevail at all terminals with LIFR probably developing at KIWD/KSAW where an upslope wind component will aid deteriorating conditions. There is a low potential for -fzra at KIWD/KCMX late aftn as sfc temps may fall to around 32F. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 429 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2021 Southerly winds will of 20-30 knots are expected over the central and eastern parts of Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight. Some gale force gusts to 35 knots can`t be ruled out, particularly for higher reporting platforms. Winds will become light by Wednesday morning and become northerly as the next system approaches from the south. Northeast winds are expected to increase to gales over the west as low pressure approaches and deepens over western WI. The low should move through central Lake Superior during the morning on Thursday, with winds becoming northwesterly lake-wide. Some gale force gusts will be possible in the eastern part of the lake by Thursday afternoon. A cold front will cross the lake on Friday with a round of west to northwest gales possible. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for LSZ162-240>244-263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EK LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JP