Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/03/21

National Weather Service Albany NY
936 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE... Short wave, mid level warm front and mid level jet were all approaching from the west. 00Z sounding depicts notable warm advection underway centered around H700. In fact, a batch of stratocumulus developed across the heart of the CWA and banked up the western slopes of the Greens and Berks with the backedge approaching the Hudson River as of 930 PM. The aforementioned wave, front and jet will continue to advect moisture and lift for some light snow/snow showers to develop across the Dacks soon. This will attempt to spread into the Lake George-Saratoga Region including southern Greens of VT overnight. Temperatures are expected to steady off as well with cloud coverage on the increase. So overall update was to sky coverage, PoP/Wx grids per recent and forecast trends within the HRRR and 00Z NAM3km, and refresh of hourly temps/dewpts/winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Cold and breezy conditions are expected to persist across the region through the afternoon, with winds diminishing overnight. Some light snow is possible for the southern Adirondacks tonight into tomorrow morning. A retrograding upper-level low will keep us under the influence of troughing and cyclonic flow aloft through the weekend. As this feature moves off to our east, temperatures may moderate towards the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Temperatures are currently in the teens and 20s across the region this afternoon mostly clear conditions seen on GOES 16 satellite. Winds are still gusty, with gusts between 25-35 mph common across the region with some locally higher gusts in the higher terrain especially in the Berkshires. Mixing to near 850 mb as seen on BUFKIT soundings supports continued mixing down of gusty winds through the rest of the afternoon, but expecting a general decreasing trend in wind gusts through the afternoon into the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and we lose daytime solar heating. Winds may become light and temperatures are expected to drop this evening as a weakening 850 mb ridge axis moves overhead. Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave located to the north of the Great Lakes moving towards our region. Clouds are expected to increase in advance of this upper-level impulse this evening into tonight with a few snow showers possible, mainly in the southern Adirondacks. A few inches of snow is possible for the upslope areas of the Adirondacks, but not expecting advisory criteria to be reached due to the lack of moisture and relatively weak forcing for ascent with this shortwave. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Light snow or snow showers are expected in the Adirondacks to begin the day Wednesday, but elsewhere across the region should remain dry. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s and 40s across the region Wednesday as partial clearing, especially for the Mid Hudson Valley is expected behind the upper-level impulse. As this shortwave departs, flow aloft is expected to become more cyclonic Wednesday night through Thursday night as an upper-level low in southeastern Canada retrogrades towards our region. This will be accompanied by another shot of cold air late Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be in the 10s to 20s, with highs Thursday only in the 20s to upper 30s for the Mid Hudson valley. Thursday night we will be in the heart of the cold air, with 850 mb temperatures between -10 to -15 expected. Accordingly, low temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits across the Adirondacks Thursday night. Breezy conditions are still expected through this period due to our region being located between high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure in southeastern Canada. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad mid to upper level cyclonic flow will be established over the Northeast U.S. and eastern Canada late in the week and through the weekend. Mid to upper ridging will build into the region from the central U.S. early next week. Overall, a quiescent weather pattern can be expected with an uptrend in temperatures during this long- term forecast period. We start off the extended forecast period Friday with the mean axis of an upper level trough to our east over eastern Quebec into Labrador Canada. This setup will allow for a northwest flow aloft regime to be in place. A series of weak mid to upper level perturbations will pivot around the aforementioned upper trough Friday and Saturday. These shortwaves will affect areas primarily west of the Hudson Valley (i.e. SW Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie, and the eastern Catskills). Because there will be limited availability of low-level moisture, expect just low chance PoPs for some snow showers at best for these areas Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be cold running below normal during this time period. The mid to upper trough finally moves further east away from the region Sunday into early next week. Ridging will build in from the central U.S. with a broad and strong 1032 hpa surface high pressure area building into the region. Subsidence from these weather features will result in a continuation of dry and tranquil conditions Sunday through Tuesday. As far as temperatures, we`ll see a moderation in temperatures during this time period from colder than normal levels to warmer than normal levels. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday will transition to highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday. Low temperatures will start off from the mid teens to lower 20s Friday night/Saturday morning to the mid 30s Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Generally, expected mainly VFR conditions tonight with an increase probability for MVFR ceilings toward sunrise Wednesday, especially north of KPOU. As upstream system approaches from the eastern Great Lakes, clouds will be on the increase. There will also be some snow with best chance into KGFL later this evening where we will retain VCSH at this time. These clouds will slowly thicken and lower tonight which will persist into most of Wednesday. MVFR ceilings for KPSF and KGFL with remaining VFR for KALB-KPOU. West-northwest winds 10-20kts this evening will subside less than 10 kts overnight. Magnitudes increase once again daylight hours Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. Dry weather is expected for today with temperatures remaining below freezing. A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday, otherwise, the rest of the day will remain dry through the mid-week period. No major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the form of snow showers. Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area. Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE... SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...Main/BGM SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...BGM/Speciale HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1033 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Evening composite analysis reveals a mid level short-wave moving through southern Ontario with attending elongated low pressure across northern Lake Superior and sharp cold front that stretches back across northern Minnesota. Most of northern Michigan sits within the warm sector along the southern side of the low with an axis of warm air stretching from the northern Plains eastward into the state. Brief period of warm advection forcing aimed across eastern Upper Michigan and tip of the mitt did bring a batch of thicker mid/high cloud cover and a few hours of radar returns sliding through that region...although no ob sites actually reported any precip. That activity is just about done with a shrinking band of mid/high cloud cover all that`s left. To the north, some cloud cover is sneaking into eastern upper Michigan at the moment. But otherwise, skies are fairly clear elsewhere across the CWA with gusty winds continuing (PLN and MCD just reported gusts >35 knots). Rest of tonight: Winds and cloud issues are the main concerns. Strongest winds are right now through around 06Z with overall pressure gradient/stronger winds aloft gradually relaxing through the overnight hours. Not enough gustiness to warrant any land based wind headline. But, I may have to extend out the gale warning a bit longer for the northern part of Lake Michigan. Meanwhile, earlier model guidance was bullish in developing a corridor of lower cloud cover from Wisconsin across Lower Michigan this evening and overnight. So far that has not happened and recent HRRR guidance is much less on board with that idea until after FROPA on Wednesday. Granted, we could yet some some moisture flux off Lake Michigan into northern Lower Michigan and subsequent development of some lower cloud cover. But I have backed off on cloud cover to some extent...trending more toward the partly cloudy side of things. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 354 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 999mb surface low sits over northwest Ontario at mid afternoon...propagating east-southeast toward a 5mb/3h pressure fall center east of Lake Superior. A warm front extends south from the low into western Wisconsin/western Illinois...with another surface trough over northwest Minnesota/ southeast South Dakota (lying within a low level thermal ridge)...and a cold front that trails back to the west across southern Manitoba. Water vapor imagery shows a lead short wave trough pushing southeast to the west of Lake Superior with some thicker but mostly mid/high cloud out ahead of it. There have been some radar returns throughout the day across eastern Upper but haven`t seen anything reach the ground yet though there is some blowing snow across eastern Upper with winds gusting over 40kts at ANJ in the past hour. Surface low will make a beeline past Lake Superior this evening and is expected to be in southwest Quebec Wednesday morning. Will get into the "warm sector" of this clipper tonight...trailing cold front will likely slip across the Upper Peninsula Wednesday morning. Primary Forecast Concerns: Pretty minimal...dealing mostly with cloud issues and temperatures. Initially gusty winds will be at their peak during the late afternoon hours before diminishing across land areas with loss of diurnal heating. But winds should stay gusty over the lakes into the early part of the evening. Thicker cloud cover this evening will be across eastern Upper and the tip of the mitt...and maybe some flurries across eastern Upper during the evening. Clouds with this system should strip out pretty quickly per satellite imagery...problem for the overnight is a pretty good signal for lower clouds to develop ahead of the approaching cold front. Not totally sure how extensive this will be especially across northern Lower as boundary layer has really dried out this afternoon with dew points in the 10-15F range...though we will be advecting in higher dew points from the southwest this evening. Will allow for some additional cloud cover later tonight especially across the interior higher terrain (will adjust sky cover forecast to allow for a later onset of cloud cover). Clouds over eastern Upper may be augmented by increasing instabilty over Lake Superior in northwest flow/cold advection behind the cold front Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 354 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal... Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Starting off the short term now on Wednesday morning...we see a weak shortwave moving through the otherwise relatively zonal northern stream of the flow...with strong troughing on either end of the North American continent. A similar pattern is noted in the southern stream, with a cutoff low moving onshore into southern California...and a pronounced shortwave moving off the southeastern coast of the US. As the flow progresses...northern stream troughing digging off the west coast of the US will continue to convince southern stream low to move eastward into the Desert the same time as ridging across the Northern Rockies becomes amplified. Downstream troughing across eastern Canada begins to retrograde going into Thursday...though as ridging builds into the Plains and the southern stream low moves through the flow to our south...looks as if we may see stronger influence of the upstream ridge than the downstream least through Friday. Primary Forecast Concerns: minor precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday...perhaps again Friday?? ...Temperature forecast through the end of the period... With weak 500mb shortwave moving into the region and accompanying surface cold front dropping down from the north early Wednesday morning...there is a very remote possibility something may try to pop up. HOWEVER...the trough is quite weak, and mid-levels are pretty dry. This should serve to minimize precipitation potential for the day Wednesday...though couldn`t entirely rule out something popping up along the front, I suppose. Only very minor QPF has been added to the forecast...particularly for Wednesday morning across the typical northwest flow belt of northern Lower...where better convergence will be located with that front moving through. Could see some LES return late Wednesday into Thursday along Lake Huron as 850 temperatures approach -10 or so along some kind of convergence axis (probably a backdoor cold front scraping our east side ahead of a weak shortwave in the upper-levels)...though the core of the coldest air attm looks to stay to our east...and synoptic moisture assistance is pretty low. Another shortwave swings down through the flow Friday as that pesky trough sits downstream of us. There is some uncertainty in how much synoptic moisture will be available to this one...though would not be surprised if the lake started to respond as 850 Ts fall again across the Great Lakes...though this may occur more towards Friday night. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days, anyway. Either remains to be seen just how quiet the end of this week will actually end up being. Additionally...with all these backdoor cold fronts leading to primarily dry northerly flow, and high pressure just to our west through most of the period...will want to keep an eye out for low temperatures at times, as any clearing and light winds under a cold airmass aloft could signal potential for below-normal low temperatures (which by the end of the week will be in the teens, even for Pellston). .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 354 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 As mentioned above in the short term...weak lobe of energy dropping through the region with a backdoor cold front late Friday could be enough to kick off some precipitation chances Friday night... especially as colder 850 Ts move in. This may be supported by more synoptic-level moisture as that downstream trough draws in Atlantic moisture...but there are some questions surrounding how that all evolves. Timing is also somewhat uncertain regarding the passage of this and other weak shortwaves moving through the flow this things may not be entirely quiet...but until things become clearer...will keep things dry for now. Either way...looks like ridging tries to press eastward late in the weekend, thus bringing us another shot at warmth going into the start of next week...though there is some discrepancy in timing of a shortwave moving through the flow that could mess things up a bit. Watching for a shift to a troughing- west, ridging-east pattern for early next week...that could signal a switch to above- normal temperatures...though it would come with a price: active weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 759 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Surface low pressure continues to move E/SE through Ontario...just north of Lake Superior, with a sharp cold front extending back into the Upper Midwest. Surface low will weaken and advance into New England overnight with the cold front sagging down into northern Lower Michigan through Wednesday. Some model guidance hints at development of a corridor of lower cloud cover spreading into northern Lower Michigan later this evening and overnight ahead of the boundary, although there is no sign of that occurring for the moment. Other model guidance (HRRR) keeps cloud cover to a minimum until after the cold front passage on Wednesday. Tough call for aviation forecasts. Have kept the going theme of developing lower MVFR cloud cover overnight and persisting through the day Wednesday. However, we may not see much in the way of lower cloud overnight. May have to revamp 06Z TAFS accordingly. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Gale force winds will continue on Lake Michigan into early this evening...but expecting winds to drop off rather quickly toward midnight and after. Small craft conditions on Lake Huron should subside as well Wednesday morning...though waves may still be a bit choppy in the vicinity of Presque Isle Light. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BA NEAR TERM...JPB SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...BA MARINE...JPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
621 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .AVIATION... Southwest winds will continue to gust into this evening as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing north of the of the Great Lakes. With a decrease in boundary layer mixing with sunset, these gusts should decrease gradually and subside by midnight into the overnight. A trailing cold front will settle into the area on Wednesday as this low continue into Quebec. Some mid level cloudiness will initially be possible in advance of this front some MVFR stratus not out of the question within the northwest flow in its wake Wednesday afternoon. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet Wednesday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 DISCUSSION... Split stream upper level flow is in place across North America with a progressive northern stream driving the sensible weather for Southeast Michigan. Southeast Michigan this afternoon is sandwiched between modified polar high pressure off of the Carolina coast with low amplitude shortwave/Clipper north of Lake Superior. The net result is a dry southwest flow over Southeast Michigan with temperatures this afternoon rising into the middle to upper 30s. The main feature(s) of interest will be a series of 2 weak cold fronts that will coast southward away from the aforementioned northern Great Lakes shortwave. These cold front will push through Lower Michigan within the next 28 hours. Latest consensus of model data has the first one as a wind shift slipping through the area between 12-14Z. Models differ on the amount of moisture available at the top of mixed layer in the wake of the windshift. NAM is more moist, which not surprisingly limits mixing heights. The HRRR is some >3500 ft deeper with mixed layer and supports much warmer daytime temperatures. The second cold front is expected to push off of Lake Huron during the late afternoon under pseudo lake breeze dynamics across the eastern cwa. This secondary feature is expected to push inland at the Tip of the Thumb/Lake Huron shoreline areas after 21Z with the cold aggregate air mass oozing through the remainder of the forecast area between 3-10Z. Preference is to side with dry/higher mixing depths with -4C/5000ft agl yielding temperatures pushing 50 degrees across the southern Forecast area. Saginaw Bay shadow is expected to impact the Thumb but temperatures should reach to around 40 degrees before winds switch to north northeast and cool off after 5 PM. Deeper column cold air advection and hydrostatics will cause meridional surface high pressure ridge to nose straight southward across Lower Michigan Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler with polar trajectories, highs in the 30s areawide. Subtle increase in anticyclonic flow from Lake Superior through Lower Michigan combined with significant AVA dipole digging through Wisconsin will cause retrograding to surface high pressure late Thursday through Saturday. Amplification of strong lower height anomaly over far northeastern NOAM/Greenland will bring strong blocking scenario to carry through the duration of the weekend. Proximity of governing features suggests that warm air advection will be limited through Saturday. The uncertainty is whether or not southwest flow can develop Sunday and cause massive uptick in air mass moderation. MARINE... Low pressure tracks from central Ontario this afternoon to the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The gradient produced by this inbound system is ramping up southwest gusts across the region with the peak in intensity expected over central Lake Huron late this afternoon and evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10pm as well as Small Craft Advisories. Winds weaken tonight and veer to the west. The exiting system then pushes a backdoor cold front through the region on Wednesday with wind becoming northwest around 15 to 20 kt through the day. A secondary front drops through Thursday morning and shifts winds to the north/NNE. This succession of fronts drives the wave field southward to the southern Lake Huron basin and another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the nearshore zones beginning Wednesday. NW to N flow is then favored through the late week with the likelihood for additional headlines remaining low. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ362-363-462. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
214 PM PST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above average high temperatures will rise to well above average for Thursday and Friday. It will be dry except for light snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in Mono County. Winds increase late week followed by cooler temperatures and chances for rain and snow for the weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Extensive high clouds continue to wash over eastern CA and western NV this afternoon well ahead of low pressure centered well off the southern CA coast. The clouds in combination with less flow aloft (to encourage mixing/warming) has brought slight cooling for many areas along and south of Hwy 50, although mountain slopes and ridges as well as areas north of Hwy 50 are showing a bit of warming over yesterday. In any case, temperatures are rather seasonable with 40s for Sierra valleys and 50s for lower valleys. The aforementioned low will track inland over far southern CA-NV tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Much of the model/ensemble guidance remains consistent in generating snow showers near the Sierra Crest over Mono County, possibly extending into southern Alpine County, Wednesday afternoon-early evening. Blended probabilities for measurable snow in the high eastern Sierra remain medium at 40-60% with a ~25% chance for up to a couple inches. For Hwy 395, probabilities for measurable snow remain low at less than 25%. In addition, given the notable increase in daytime road heating (which would make any snow melt quickly on roads) this time of year, very light snowfall rates, and the fact that trans Sierra passes remain closed, little or no impact is expected for travel in Mono County Wednesday...especially along and east of Highway 395. The only caveat along Hwy 395 is well after dark Wednesday when any roads that remain wet could see slick patches as temperatures fall below freezing. A ridge axis rebuilds over eastern CA and Nevada Thursday. A moderate south to southwest flow returns to the Sierra with some breezes mixing into the valleys Thursday afternoon with some warming into the lower 60s. -Snyder .LONG TERM...Friday onward... * Friday promises to be another mild day with daytime temps about a month ahead of normal. With gusty south/southwest winds and if clouds hold off long enough, we could see max temps get into the 90th percentile of NBM guidance ranges. That would yield upper 60s RNO, mid 70s NFL, and mid/upper 50s for mountain communities from Tahoe to Mammoth Lakes. * Saturday`s storm is still on track with a quick-moving negative tilt wave coming off the eastern Pacific. No major changes here with ongoing forecast. Good bet for mountain snow accumulations and travel impacts but the speed of the storm will limit amounts to a few inches at pass elevations with an inch or two for mountain communities. Pretty shadowed setup so I am anticipating just light rain showers for W Nevada coupled with breezy SW winds. * Next week is really starting to look more interesting with broad cold upper trough settling in over the region. Latest NBM and ensemble guidance brings periods of snow to both mountains and valleys with colder than normal temps. Best odds look to be Monday evening through Thursday. Could rack up decent snow accumulations in the Sierra but water content won`t be overly impressive with minimal IVT signals. Non-trivial odds in NBM of seeing at least a few inches of snow in the W Nevada cities as well but that may be driven more by diurnal instability and remain scattered. Looks like next week will feel more like that "winter in March" that we all know and love. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Upper low swinging through SoCal will send mid and high clouds our way through tomorrow. Most areas won`t see any significant weather and winds will generally be light. * The one exception is over the E Sierra, near MMH, where NAM and HRRR high resolution guidance is showing decent instability Wednesday afternoon. This should result in scattered snow and pellet showers from Bridgeport southward. Most of the activity will be along the crest with mountain obscuration; however, we`re looking at about a 40% chance of seeing MVFR-IFR snow showers at MMH between 22z/Wed and 4z/Thurs. Accumulation potential appears minimal with NBM guidance indicating about a 10-20% chance of up to 1" if a heavier shower occurs over the airfield. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...