Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/12/21

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
944 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .DISCUSSION... Zone of isentropic lift over the coastal plains and the coastal waters this evening will gradually shift to the east during the overnight hours. 12Z CRP sounding showed region of elevated instability with MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Lightning data shows thunderstorms mainly over the Gulf waters but a few strikes just south of Corpus Christi. Adjusted PoPs to reflect forecast trend for tonight. Models show isentropic lift will increase again over the Coastal Bend. HRRR model showed convection will increase again early Friday morning. Raised PoPs slightly for the Coastal Bend region for Friday. No major changes made to the current temperature forecast. Temperatures have been generally steady this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 541 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ AVIATION... Poor aviation conditions will persist tonight into Friday with IFR ceilings prevalent through the period for south Texas. Scattered light showers will continue over the coastal plains through most of the evening hours with MVFR vsbys/LIFR ceilings. Another round of showers is expected to develop Friday morning leading to MVFR vsbys from 14-20Z Friday. Some improvement to MVFR ceilings will be possible over the northern Brush Country on Friday with IFR ceilings holding elsewhere. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... The first punch of our cold air outbreak came in this morning, stronger than expected. Cold advection, thick low cloud cover and rain showers all played a role in keeping temps nearly steady throughout the day in the upper 30s and lower 40s. We will not see much adjustment in these temperatures over the next 36 hours with highs tomorrow mainly in the lower 40s and lows tonight and tomorrow night in the mid and upper 30s. with a moderate northerly wind tonight, especially east, wind chill values will drop into the upper 20s northeast. Isentropic lift should weaken tonight decreasing PoPs across the area. A stray shower is still possible tomorrow, mainly east as a mid-level trough tracks across the region. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... The big story in the long term remains with the frigid and wintry weather expected Sunday Night into Monday. For Saturday, weak isentropic lift will continue with light rain possible ahead of the next approaching mid-level trough. Temperature profiles for Saturday remain above freezing which should maintain precipitation mainly in the form of rain. The second trough will aid in a second surge of high pressure and additional CAA into South Texas, bringing much colder temperatures, with overnight lows expected to drop below freezing for most locations for early next week. Early Sunday morning, there remains a very slight potential for freezing rain/sleet for far northern areas ranging from Cotulla to Victoria. This is highly dependent on any light rain forming in the first place, as any rain could potentially cool the atmosphere closer to the wet bulb temperature which forecast soundings hover around freezing. Again, this is a very slight chance. Isentropic lifting strengthens Sunday night into Monday as the second surge meets up with a surface coastal trough. PWATs are expected to increase to nearly 1.3 inches which is higher than the 75th percentile of normal moisture for South Texas. This will ramp up rain chances Sunday Night, with light to moderate rain showers. However, as the colder air begins to filter in, with temperatures reaching freezing, the rain is expected to start to transition to a more freezing rain event late Sunday Night/early Monday morning. Freezing temperatures may not reach coastal regions until near daybreak. As Monday continues, temperature profiles support sleet formation as well. Models did warm slightly with the 12Z run which would limit how far south locations may observe freezing rain/sleet. However, at this time, the NAM has yet to pick up on this system for Monday so do not want to deviate far from previous forecast packages with regard to temperatures. In addition to the wintry precip, will say that the second surge of pressure is showing a tighter pressure gradient which will lead to stronger winds over the waters with a potential for Gale Warnings across the Gulf waters for Monday. The gusty winds over land will lead to wind chills reaching at least advisory conditions of below 25 degrees, with possible warning conditions for northern areas where wind chills drop into the single digits. As we head into Monday night, the surface coastal trough will quickly lift to the northeast with continued northerly wind over South Texas. This will gradually taper off wintry precipitation as the bulk of the moisture exits the region. This will, however, lead to some clearing with overnight lows to become even colder dropping into the 20s to even the teens in some parts. Temperatures will gradually/relatively warm for Tuesday into the 40s but lows in the 30s will still be expected Tuesday night. Another coastal trough will develop for Wednesday once again returning moisture and rain chances to the region ahead of another cold front Wednesday night. For now, have most activity in the form of rain, but as some locations are showing to drop to near freezing Wednesday night, will need to monitor the development of this system for the potential of additional wintry precip Wednesday night. MARINE... Patchy fog and light rain will continue tonight with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. Expect visibilities mainly between 1 and 3 miles. Moderate to strong winds will continue through Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the near and offshore waters through midnight Friday night, and for the bays through mid-day Friday. The chance for showers will continue into Friday. Northerly winds will continue to be strong through early next week due to surges of arctic air, with gusts to gale force Monday and Monday Night. A Gale Warning may be needed for Monday. Showers will be possible over the weekend, with the chance of some wintry precipitation mixed in Monday. Rain chances should taper off by Tuesday but return Tuesday Night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 38 43 39 47 36 / 70 40 20 30 30 Victoria 35 42 37 44 34 / 70 30 20 20 30 Laredo 40 44 38 45 36 / 40 20 20 30 20 Alice 37 42 38 46 35 / 70 30 20 20 30 Rockport 37 45 39 49 36 / 70 40 20 30 30 Cotulla 38 43 38 45 34 / 40 10 10 30 20 Kingsville 38 43 39 47 35 / 70 30 20 30 30 Navy Corpus 38 46 41 49 39 / 70 50 30 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Friday night For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas... Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1047 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 - Light snow tonight with highest accumulations North - Another round of snow for Saturday with cold air to follow - A couple of potential rounds of accumulating snow next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 The forecast is largely evolving as expected. The exit region of 160 knot polar jet core is causing enough lift to create a large area of light snow over southern WI and northern IL at 10 pm. The jet core lifts northeast so most of this snow will fall north of I-96 between say 3 am and 10 am on Friday. However there is a glitch (of course). Looking at the Saturation Equivalent Potential Temperature difference between 1000 mb and 850 mb, it becomes more negative than it did on the 8th when there was 6 to 10 inches of snow near Port Sheldon. This is one of the enhance lake snow bands. The band will be strongest during the mid morning hours over central Lake Michigan as it is shifting back across the lake toward Michigan. It will be weakening when it comes on shore. Even both the NAMnest and the HRRR have locally heavy precipitation amounts (which typically means there will be locally heavy snowfall even of the location is not exactly correct). This band comes onshore by early Friday afternoon so it would be in the afternoon into the evening we would see the heavier localized snowfall. At this point there is to much uncertainty to say much more than it is possible. One other point is that both the NAMnest and HRRR show a secondary snowfall max EAST (yes EAST) of US-131 in the evening. That is were the east flow from the departing system centered to our south, converges with the incoming surface high. The NAMnest version of this is closer to US-131 with the heaviest snowfall, and mostly north of GRR. The HRRR is about one row of counties east of US-131 but also north of Grand Rapids. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 -- Light snow tonight with highest accumulations North -- The sunny skies across most of the area this afternoon, will be replaced by some light snow moving over the area for tonight. This light snow is the result of a short wave moving in from the west, interacting with sufficient deep moisture. The deepest moisture will be from along I-96 and areas north. This scenario will support a general trace along I-94, to around three inches or so along the U.S.-10 corridor by Friday morning. Lake effect/enhancement is not really in play as the light snow with the wave comes through. This is because the flow remains from the NNE through much of the event. In the wake of the system on Friday, what lake effect band is offshore over the lake will come onshore Friday morning into Friday evening with the mean low level flow shifting to a westerly component for a short time. We will see some additional accumulations on Friday west of U.S.-131, before it shifts back offshore Friday night as the flow becomes easterly again. -- Another round of snow for Saturday with colder air to follow -- We have a generally similar setup for another round of accumulating snow for Saturday into Saturday evening as compared to tonight. There is the potential for snow amounts to be a little higher and widespread for this system. Moisture is fairly deep for the entire region to start with. In addition, the microphysics could be a bit more favorable with the DGZ quite deep, which would help out snow ratios a bit. The forcing ahead of this wave a little better with a bit better upper divergence ahead of this wave. Right now, 2 to 4 inches looks like a good middle ground for much of the area. This has the potential to be a little lower or higher depending on how exactly everything comes together. Once this wave moves by, we will see a reinforcing shot of colder air push in from the north. 850 mb temps on Saturday will be in the negative mid teens C, with negative mid 20s C coming in on Sunday. As one would expect, this will help to trigger some lake effect on Sunday. The lake effect does not look to be impressive at this point, for two reasons. The first reason is that we do not see the coldest temperatures aloft and cyclonic flow aloft come down this way with the northern branch of the jet staying north. This is a somewhat shallow cold air mass coming in. Also, the flow is NNW on Sunday, but will shift to more NNE Sunday night, taking the lake effect mostly offshore. There will be accumulations Sunday-Sunday evening, just not too impressive at this time. -- A couple of potential rounds of accumulating snow next week -- We are watching two periods next week for the potential of accumulating snow that could affect the area. The periods are generally Tuesday and then Thursday, with exact timing to be determined. We will see a long wave trough become established over the central portion of the country. Decent pieces of energy/short waves will be embedded in this flow, and will lift out of the long wave trough. As they lift out, they will have a good potential to draw Gulf moisture northward, and produce a fairly expansive area of wintry precipitation. The track and timing of any systems that would eject out of the main trough is quite uncertain out at this time frame. There is the potential that the systems would come close enough to bring accumulations of snow to the area, or they could end up far enough south and east that the precipitation would miss the area. It does seem that we will be far enough established under the cold air that precipitation type would be mainly snow, if it makes it up this way. The more wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet would likely stay further south at this time. There is plenty of time to monitor these systems. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 VFR persists this evening, but as light snow moves into the area overnight we will see conditions deteriorate. Ceilings should stay MVFR, but visibility may drop into IFR during periods of heavier snow. Snow should impact most TAF sites, however JXN may be spared as snow stays a bit further north. Meanwhile winds will turn easterly through Friday morning, then vary a bit northerly Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Winds and waves may come up a bit later Friday as the winds and waves build a bit behind the departing system that comes through late tonight. This may necessitate a brief Small Craft Advisory, but this should not be a significant marine event. Our concerns are focused on Saturday night and Sunday, as winds and waves will come up quite a bit with the next surge of cold air poised to move in. The colder air combined with the winds/waves will also create some freezing spray issues. Conditions should then improve a bit on Monday as winds/waves come down some. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Thielke MARINE...NJJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
627 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Clouds continue to move in as a weak system approaches the western Great Lakes. Some flurries and lake effect snow showers are possible with this system into Friday. Another system will bring a better chance of light snow for late Friday into early Saturday with some light snow accumulations likely. A reinforcing shot of arctic air is expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 The next shortwave, on the nose of a 140 kt jet at 400 mb, will take a more northerly route through the Western/Northern Great Lakes tonight as a large south-central Canada polar low begins to congeal. This system may clip far nw IN and lower MI will a few snow showers later this evening into Friday morning, with a few flurries not out of the question into the rest of the area with the area split between better forcing to the north and low level frontal forcing well to the south. Lake effect snow showers will develop again in mainly Berrien/LaPorte counties on Friday as trajectories turn more northerly behind a weak low level trough. Forecast soundings depict the potential for light accums/impacts as the convective layer overlays into the DGZ with good saturation wrt ice. Mainly dry/cold elsewhere with highs recovering into the low-mid 20s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 The weekend into next week will continue to feature persistent arctic air and periodic snow chances. Another light snow event is expected Friday night into Saturday across the Midwest and Lower Lakes. Band of snow will initially be narrow as an approaching low amplitude lead shortwave induces an elevated fgen response across northern IL-far nw IN-lower MI Friday night. Snow ratios often overperform in these scenarios with several inches of fluffy snow possible where better banding sets up. An increase in large scale ascent is then expected by Saturday afternoon as a more amplified mid level trough pivots through. This should allow for light snow to fill in to the south during the day on Saturday as a deformation band attempts to orient sw to ne across the local area during the day. This could allow for an inch or two of additional snow for the entire area on Saturday, mainly along/nw of US 24. Fri night-Sat totals may exceed 3 inches in far nw IN and Lower MI. Shot of colder air will follow Sunday into Sunday night with sub- zero wind chills and lake effect snow showers possible. Some good news is that the GFS has come into better alignment with the "warmer" ECMWF showing much lower probabilities for advisory level wind chills (-15F or colder) during this time. A lobe of the polar vortex, just north of the Minnesota/Canada border, will finally release east early next week, with southeast CONUS upper ridge expansion, and the amplification of longwave troughing across the Rockies/Plains. A low level baroclinic zone will reorient from the Deep South northeast through the Appalachian Chain in this regime, with a frontal wave developing along this feature Mon-Tue, and again toward the end of the week in response to pacific origin mid level shortwaves ejecting northeast out of the Four Corners region. The late Mon-Tue system will have a swath of snow on its northwest fringe as it tracks northeast, with strong arctic high pressure over the north-central US and lingering mid level confluence over the Great Lakes determining the track/strength of the developing low pressure system. Models overall show a coastal transfer with deeper moisture shunted east of the area, which may keep this more of an advisory level snow under the upper level shortwave. A lot of time remains to sort out the details, so stay tuned. The trailing system to follow next week could bring another bout of accumulating snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 625 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 A shortwave passes by to the north, but it won`t do much more than make it overcast tonight as midlevel dryness eats into that snow chance. A weak shortwave just to the south of that shortwave may be able to provide a period of MVFR CIGs Friday morning, but moisture depth in the column could preclude this from occurring meaning it could scatter out instead. We`ll also have to watch the lake effect snow plume meander back east from IL. This may affect SBN with some snow showers mid morning into the afternoon hours potentially bringing MVFR VIS. The RAP time sections indicate VIS could get into IFR. However, don`t have enough confidence to include IFR VIS in this issuance since inversion heights look low enough and there is some question about how far inland the lake effect band can come before it dissipates as the lake effect band loses structure and forcing over land. Better chances for more widespread system snow move in after this taf period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Murphy SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Roller Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
919 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move away from the North Carolina coast tonight. A series of several more weak lows will track near the coast Friday and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 910 PM Thursday...Lower lvl isent lift combined with upr lvl divergence is producing widespread rain with some embedded heavier shra over the region. Cont mostly categorical pops overnight. CAA will lead to lows in the upr 30s N and W to mostly lower 40s SE. Prev disc...Scattered light showers moving into the western tier of the CWA at mid- afternoon. Latest HRRR and 3km NAM shows the light precipitation expanding from northwest to southeast and to the coast by late evening and overnight. Some embedded moderate showers are possible, especially in the 00z to 06z timeframe, but most of the rainfall will be on light side. Chilly temperatures and NE breezes will accompany the rain tonight. Expect lows in the 36 to 40 degree range over most of the CWA with some mid 40s around Ocracoke and Hatteras. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 320 PM Thursday...Another is the series of low pressure waves moves offshore during the day Friday and will produce another mostly light rain. Amounts will range from about one- quarter inch over the Outer Banks to just a few hundreths of an inch further inland. We will remain locked in low stratus clouds with strong cold air damming with little temperature recovery tomorrow, with highs likely only 3 to 5 degrees warmer than lows, in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Thu...An active pattern will persist through the long term as a series of systems develop along a stalled frontal boundary off the Southeast coast. Friday Night...Broad area of stratiform precip will be moving offshore Friday night, giving us a brief reprieve in rain activity. Saturday through Sunday...Modest mid-level trough axis over the Midwest trailing into the Mid Atlantic will swing across the region Sat, spinning up yet another low pressure system across the southeast. System will become better organized Sat aftn as it reaches the Carolina coastal waters. Widespread rain expected all day Sat as the system moves through the region. Models continue to show CAD occuring across the Piedmont Triad region, which will keep temps cool in central NC during the aftn and provide some ptype issues there. Unlikely at this time for Eastern NC to see much ptype issues with this storm, we can expect a very sharp temp gradient Sat with this system. Areas west of Hwy 17 will likely stay in the low to mid 40s with locations east towards the coastline reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Low will push out of the region Sat night into Sun morning. We will see a brief break from the rain before a weak mid-level shortwave lifts across the Southeast, churning up yet another low that will move north and east through the region. Best chc for rain with this system will occur late Saturday aftn into the overnight hours with the bulk of QPF confined to the southern tier and Crystal Coast. Temps Sat will remain cool around the mid to upper 40s. Washington`s Birthday through Tuesday...Coastal low will continue pushing offshore Monday morning, providing another quick lull in the rain during the day. A few light sct showers remain possible Mon morning through the aftn as the coastal low lifts out before a much stronger storm system marches across the Southeast and into our region Mon night into Tuesday. Models continue to trend towards a stronger inland system riding northeast along the Appalachia region. Timing still differs between models, but the general setup remains the same. Warm front will force its way north across Eastern NC overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Expect widespread rain and warm temps on Tuesday before the cold front pushes through late Tue aftn into the nighttime hours. Wednesday...High pressure will build in from the north in the wake of the cold front, giving us a solid breather to a wet pattern before yet another storm system begins to get its act together late Wed night. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 610 PM Thursday...High confidence in IFR or worse conditions thru period. Low lvl CAA will lead to strong inversion developing with widespread stratus expected tonight thru the day Fri. Will also see rain/fog tonight and patchy rain/drizzle/fog Fri that will lower vsbys at times as well. Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Thu...Numerous rounds of low pressure systems are expected to train across the region through the long term, bringing extended periods of sub-VFR conditions through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Friday/... As of 910 PM Thursday...NE winds are increasing over the region as gradient tightens between high pres building in from the N and weak low developing to the SE. Cont SCA all wtrs except wrn rivers. Prev disc...Winds at late afternoon are NE at 10-20 knots with seas 4 to 6 feet. Surge of NE winds develops later this evening and overnight. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for NE winds 15-25 knots with a few gusts to 30 knots and seas up to 6-8 feet through the overnight hours into Friday. Winds may back to more Northerly during the day on Friday, but will remain quite gusty as yet another in a series of weak waves of low pressure move along the frontal boundary offshore. Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 350 AM Thu...Unsettled weather expected through early next week. A stationary boundary settled across the southern waters will allow numerous low pressure systems to train along the boundary. Broad coastal low will pass through the area Friday and strengthen offshore. Strong Nrly winds will persist into Friday night reaching 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds calm slightly Sat and Sun to around 15-20 kts, but seas across the northern waters will remain near or at SCA criteria for quite some time. Winds ramp back up again on Monday ahead of the next system with gusts nearing 25 kts by Monday night. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...RF/ML MARINE...RF/CTC/ML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
900 PM MST Thu Feb 11 2021 .UPDATE...Have made a few tweaks to going forecast for tonight based on recent observation and radar trends. Temperatures along the Divide near the Montana border have already dipped slightly below forecast minimums, therefore have pushed the forecast a bit colder in that region. Winds coming out of the Monida region along I-15 near the Montana border are quite gusty, and have pushed winds up slightly there to account for those gusty north conditions, as well as tweaked slightly higher in a few other under-represented areas. Broad area of precipitation shifting through southeast highlands is well covered, but increased precipitation chances through the Eastern Magic Valley and South Hills/Raft River region to account for upstream radar returns and bullish HRRR precipitation forecast. Strong batch of warm air expected to surge along the I-86 corridor as this precipitation moves in. Consequently, have weakened overnight snow accumulations in this region, though a mix of rain/snow is quite likely. This is a tough forecast. A degree or two different could mean a very different scenario for some locations by morning. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM MST Thu Feb 11 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. We still have strong northwest flow aloft over our area. Moderate west southwest winds are occurring down low for the Eastern Magic Valley and the Snake plain. Cold air is filtering over the Montana Divide bringing much cooler temperatures for our Northeast areas. There are some really cold windchills, widespread in the single digits to teens in Upper Snake plain and Upper Snake Highlands. Expect this trend of moderate to strong west to southwest winds and much cooler temperatures for our northern areas to continue through the period. In addition, a moist wave is starting to move in northwest flow this afternoon and will continue through much of Friday. The Sawtooth mountains will receive 2 to 7 inches (with locally higher amounts) of upslope snow where a winter weather advisory is in place. Bigger impacts will be for our Eastern Highlands, including the Teton Valley, Big Hole Mountains, Caribou Highlands, and the Wasatch Mountains where still expecting 5 to 10 inches of snow for valley and 8 to 16 inches of snow for mountains is expected. Winter storm warnings are still in effect for these locations. Blowing and drifting snow from strong winds will be an impact as well. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the Island Park, Bear Lake Region, Blackfoot Mountains and Marsh/Albion mountains for 2 to 4 inches of lower elevation snow and 4 to 8 inches of higher elevation snow combined with blowing and drifting snow. Areas of uncertainty continue to be our valley areas from Pocatello to Burley. Currently, there is a tight gradient of expected snow due to temperatures. Temperatures should drop quickly, but how quickly to get accumulating snow, will continue to be the challenge. Bench areas could see a couple of inches of snow. Valleys will likely be around an inch with this system due to elevated temperatures due to winds. Localized valleys could get more. West southwest winds continue to be strong with gusts of 30 to 35 mph along the I-86 corridor with this system. These winds will likely extend east and north as well. With this strong west southwest winds there could be some freezing rain for the Eastern Highlands late this afternoon into early evening. If this occurs it will not be widespread nor last that long. For Saturday we are expecting a second system impacting our Eastern Highlands and Snake Plan as well as the Eastern/Southeast and Southern Highlands. With cold air filtering south into our whole area, lower elevations will see snow too, where 2 to 4 inches is expected. 3 to 6 inches is likely for higher elevations, especially for our Southern areas. Also, if a convergence band sets up, the Pocatello area could see higher amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range. We are holding off on advisory for these areas until this current system is mostly through. This snow will impact all travel corridors. Expect temperatures above normal for our West and Southwest areas and below normal for our northeast areas thorugh Friday and drop below normal for all areas by Saturday. Wyatt LONG TERM...Sun through next Thu night. Something of a break in winter storms for Sun, but another trough and associated weak cold front expected to arrive late in the day Mon and continue into Tue night. Lingering precipitation for Wed and Thu in northwesterly air flow, so it favors the east side of the Snake River plain and southeastern highlands, along with the northwest end of Custer County. The cool down and winds associated with this particular front are at this time fairly limited and the snowfall has only patchy accumulations above 6 inches; definitely a weaker storm than what is occurring in the near term. The farther east in the forecast area, the less agreement on temperatures, but timing between the GFS and ECMWF is excellent, the only differences-and they are minor-are in precipitation amounts. It is generally wetter with the ECMWF, but even that isn`t true every 6 hour period. Messick AVIATION...Morning guidance indicating continued slower evolution of conditions with the incoming storm. However, IFR is expected at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA, with likely airport closure at KDIJ. KSUN is in somewhat of a precipitation shadow, and will be IFR during some of the morning hours, but is actually expected to experience partial clearing by the afternoon. Limited clearing in the late afternoon for KPIH and KBYI, but no such luck for KIDA and KDIJ. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MST Friday for IDZ058-061- 062-066. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM MST Friday for IDZ060-063>065. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for IDZ072. && $$