Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/03/21

National Weather Service Albany NY
950 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal storm will slowly move along the New England coast overnight through tomorrow. Cloudy skies with occasional light snow or snow showers will continue through Wednesday. Fair and seasonably cold weather is forecast for Thursday. A cold front may bring a period of light snow and rain on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 950 PM EST...All the winter weather advisories have been canceled that were in effect for eastern NY. Some light snow continues across the western Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, Schoharie Valley and the northern Caskills. Additional snowfall will be light with a dusting to a few inches in most areas. The exception maybe across northern Herkimer County where north of Route 28 2-4" may occur, but overall downward trends of widespread, impactful accumulating snow is expected overnight. The center of the closed H500 low is near the northeast PA/northern NJ and southern NY corridor based on the RAP. Short-wave energy continues to rotate around the closed low which the latest water vapor imagery shows a vort max swirling over eastern NY. The main sfc low at 987 hPa is near the Gulf of ME. The cyclonic vorticity advection with the closed low continues to tap some Atlantic moisture into upstate NY and northern New England. The best coverage of snowfall on the regional mosaic radar imagery is over northern and west-central NY. The activity is more diffuse over eastern NY with spotty light snow. Some locations west of the Capital Region across the Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, northern Catskills and Helderbergs could get additional snowfall tonight. Another short-wave rotates around the low overnight bringing some light snow or snow showers back across eastern NY into the southern Greens and Berkshires towards 6 am. This may cause some upslope snowfall along the northern Taconics too. We tried to increase the PoPs towards daybreak and retool PoP trends based on the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest. Northerly winds continue tonight at 5-15 mph. Lows will be in the mid teens to lower 20s with cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The coastal storm will move slowly northeastward up the New England coast reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday evening. Our area will remain under its influence as the associated the upper low moves slowly across southern New England. This will keep chances for light snow and snow showers in the forecast into Wednesday night with chances gradually decreasing over time. Accumulations are generally expected to be light, but with a large slow moving cutoff low, there are always surprises. Winds will become northwesterly tonight and remain brisk and gusty through the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the teens to mid 20s. Highs Wednesday in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Colder Wednesday night with lows mainly between 10 and 20 degrees. As the low pulls away on Thursday, a weak high pressure ridge builds across the area, and skies are forecast to clear. A fair and tranquil late winter day is expected with highs mainly in the 30s, although cooler in the highest terrain. Thursday evening remains tranquil, and with fresh snowpack, mainly clear skies and light winds, good radiational cooling should help temperatures drop off fairly quickly. Clouds begin to increase after midnight as a cold front approaches the area. Lows Thursday night mainly in the teens. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Active weather pattern continues through the long term, with best chances for impactful winter weather Friday, then again possibly Sunday-early Monday. Initial system approaches from the Great Lakes region Friday, with strong surge of mid level warm advection. Thermal profiles suggest P- type may start as snow, or a snow/sleet mix in many areas Friday morning. Then, boundary layer warming should allow for P-type to become mainly rain, or a rain/snow mix in valley areas near and south of I-90 for the afternoon, with precipitation possibly becoming more showery/spotty for these areas. North of I-90, steadier precipitation may continue into the afternoon, and enough wet bulb/dynamical cooling should support mainly snow, perhaps mixing with rain before precipitation tapers off in valley areas. Mainly light snowfall amounts are expected (perhaps a coating to 2 inches), although higher terrain of the Catskills, SW Adirondacks, and portions of the Mohawk Valley and Lake George region could have 2-5 inches, which may eventually prompt the issuance of some advisories. Timing currently looks to be mainly mid morning through early/mid afternoon, however will have to watch in case precipitation develops a bit sooner, which could then affect portions of the morning commute. A brief reprieve expected Friday night-Saturday night, although some Lake Effect and upslope snow showers could occur through Saturday across portions of the SW Adirondacks and southern VT. Then, the threat for a more highly impactful storm system exists for Sunday-early Monday, although considerable uncertainty remains in the details, with the 12Z/02 GFS and mean of the GEFs suggesting a track well offshore with less phasing between northern/southern stream features, however an arctic front may bring snow showers or snow squalls to the region during this time. The 12Z/02 ECMWF, on the other hand, continues to depict a stronger storm system with northern/southern stream phasing and a track much closer to the coast. Should this prove correct, a highly impactful winter storm would occur across much of eastern NY and western New England. At this time, have kept high chance PoPs Sunday-early Monday across the region, and trends will have be watched in case a more phased/stronger storm system affects the region during this time period. Regardless of the exact outcome with this potential storm system for Sunday-early Monday, well below normal temperatures and Lake Effect snow look likely for late Monday into Tuesday, with the possibility for significant Lake Effect snow across portions of the SW Adirondacks (especially northern Herkimer/western Hamilton Counties). As for temperatures, highs Friday mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, although portions of the southern Adirondacks may only hold in the lower/mid 30s. Friday night lows in the teens to lower 20s. Highs Saturday-Sunday mainly in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with Saturday night/Sunday morning lows in the single digits and teens. Much colder for Monday-Tuesday, with highs mainly in the teens to lower/mid 20s; although could actually be even colder. Overnight lows should range in the single digits above and below zero, with some colder min temps possible across the southern Adirondacks. Wind chills may drop into the 10 to 20 below zero range for at least higher elevations Monday night. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Disturbances rotating around a nearby upper level low pressure system will bring some snow showers and flurries to the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday. Mainly MVFR conditions (mainly for Cigs) are expected overnight into Wednesday morning. A few periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible through 02Z/Wed as some snow showers pass through. MVFR Cigs may lift to VFR at some TAF sites Wednesday afternoon, as ceilings lift to between 3500-4500 FT AGL. However, as another upper level disturbance passes through, some snow showers or flurries will be possible roughly between 14Z- 20Z/Wed. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur within any more formidable snow showers. Winds will become north to northwest tonight at 5-10 KT, although some gusts of 20-25 KT will be possible at KPOU this evening. On Wednesday, winds will become northwest to west and increase to 8-12 KT, with gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological issues are expected for the next week. Daily average temperatures are forecast below freezing through the next week which will lead to an increase in river ice. Precipitation will generally be in the form of snow leading to an increase in the snow pack. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL/Rathbun HYDROLOGY...SND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Not seeing too many issues with dense fog just yet, with all observations reporting at least a mile of visibility, so will hold off on an advisory with this update. Made adjustments to sky cover based on slow westward expansion of the low stratus deck, seen on nighttime satellite imagery. The cold front that will be moving through the forecast area tomorrow is located in southern Saskatchewan, per the latest surface analysis. No change in our thinking regarding precipitation type and timing tomorrow as the cold front moves through during the day. Still a chance for some freezing rain on the leading edge of precipitation, and for some freezing drizzle in the James River Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise precipitation is expected to be primarily snow, with generally less than an inch of accumulation expected. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the north central. UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Southwest North Dakota was the place to be today, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the upper 50s. Dickinson even set a new record high of 58 degrees, breaking the old record of 55 set in 1962. Meanwhile, low stratus has persisted across the central part of the state, with Bismarck not even reaching above freezing. We went ahead and expanded areas of fog through much of the south central and James River Valley from now, through the night, and into tomorrow morning. NDDOT travel cameras at Ashley and Medina are already showing fog, and Carrington, Jamestown, and Oakes are all reporting reduced visibilities. Would not be surprised to see visibilities continue to drop as they have the past few nights, since the same air mass is still in place. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 The short term period is highlighted by a cold front arriving Wednesday, bringing light snow, breezy northwest winds, and some mixed precipitation with a chance of freezing drizzle in the James River Valley. Synoptic pattern this afternoon was characterized by a broad ridge axis from southern Ontario through North Dakota. At the surface a low was over southern Saskatchewan, along with an accompanying cold front. A warm front aloft had pushed across the central, with those in the west with sunny skies and little snowpack seeing the warmest temperatures this afternoon. Satellite loops show stratus slowly eroding eastward with dry westerly flow just above the shallow saturated boundary layer. RAP 925mb relative humidity fields keep saturation in the south central through east, which seems reasonable for continued cloud cover and the possibility for reduced visibilities again tonight. Southwest flow and DCVA takes over on Wednesday with the surface low and cold front arriving in the west. A potent warm nose aloft, centered at about 850mb, will take time to erode and may cause initial precipitation to have some pockets of freezing rain mixed in. Confidence in this at any location is low however with forecast soundings showing only a very brief window for this possibility with initial soundings being very dry for precipitation before cooling and saturation. Thus we have predominantly snow as the weather type for most of the area. The exception being the southern James River Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening where antecedent low level moisture and modest omega may overlap to produce freezing drizzle. With the progressive wave and front, snow amounts should be light, less than an inch in most areas. Across the north central where better DCVA and brief low level frontogenesis line up, one to two inches are possible. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 The long term period is highlighted by dangerously cold wind chills forecast this weekend. Thursday will begin a period of reinforcing cold post-frontal air masses as Arctic air arrives through the weekend. A low level baroclinic zone will set up from northwest to southeast, gradually pushing south across southwest North Dakota as colder air fills in. With this setup, temperatures should be warmest in the southwest and coldest in the northeast. Friday through this weekend, a series of shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow will ride over the baroclinic zone, delivering shots of light snow to the west. The worst of the Arctic air mass still looks to set up Saturday and Sunday, with 850mb temperatures over 2 standard deviations below climatological mean. GEFS/ECMWF ensembles show healthy probabilities of -30 C 850mb temperatures by Sunday morning, especially across the north. This will deliver surface temperature lows, and certainly wind chills, well below zero across the area. Northern tier counties may reach wind chills of around 45 below zero Sunday morning and Monday morning, depending on how cloud cover sets up. Next week`s temperature outlook becomes a little murky, with 00/12Z deterministic guidance straying from the means. GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean offers a gradual rebound, along with the NBM. 12Z ECMWF deterministic does want to bring another cold shot mid-week, though based on ensemble spread this is currently on the low end of the probabilistic envelope. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 607 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 IFR to LIFR ceilings continue at KBIS and KJMS, and are expected to persist through the 00Z TAF cycle. VFR conditions at KDIK/KXWA/KMOT through 12Z, with a cold front entering northwest North Dakota after 12Z. Expect initial MVFR conditions along the front, with light snow possible, before IFR ceilings move in after the front passes. Breezy northwest winds will also accompany the frontal passage. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1017 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeast into the Maritimes through Wednesday. The low will then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday night. A warm front will approach later Friday, with an occluded front crossing the region Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure could begin to approach later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1010 PM Update: Steady precip across the coastal areas has ended for the most part. Some spotty rain showers or snow showers are still possible overnight. Temps continue to slow warm along coast and that warmer air is slowly working its way inland. Decided to cancel the Winter Storm Warning for the coast and central Washington County. The rest of the headlines remain as is for now. BGR has climbed to 32F with snow mixed w/sleet at times. Upper 20s to lower 30s across northern and central areas. The warm layer between 850-700 has worked its way into Northern Maine with Caribou and Presque Isle reporting sleet. The radar shows the sleet well in Dual Pol mode working to the n. Cannot rule out some -FZRA mixing in at times overnight as depicted by the latest RAP and NAM soundings. The -FZRA could makes it way into NE Aroostook County overnight w/a light ice coating possible. Previous Discussion... Coastal low was near the Bay of Fundy per the latest sfc analysis. Temps have jumped into the low/mid 30s w/rain being reported right along the outer islands and up into the eastern tip of coastal Washington County(Eastport at 36F). However, snow was occurring further inland along the coast mixed w/-FZRA at times. The latest radar showed broken bands of precip lifting across the region w/snow- sleet across northern areas, and some light -FZRA across the Maine Central Highlands. Abbot in Piscataquis County reported FZRA last hr. The latest forecast doing fairly well w/rain edging its way to the coast, while sleet has made its way into northern Maine, and as far n as the St. John Valley. Tweaked the hrly temps/dewpoints to bring things to the current conditions. Decided to keep the headlines where they are for now. Even though rain was occurring along the outer islands and into the Eastport area, cold temps at the sfc could allow for rain to freeze. Will re-evaluate the headlines around 9 PM. Previous Discussion... Hvy snow continues acrs the north but warm temps aloft are quickly closing in just to the north of HUL and would not be surprised if area of sleet stays just east of the Route 1 corridor in nern Aroostook, strictly based on 800-700mb temps fm 18z NAM. This field seems to serve as the best proxy for sleet/fzra line and hv based wx grids on this. Storm total accums have not changed significantly acrs the area, tho did bump accums up by an inch or two acrs the north with band that went thru earlier and also the expectation of more bands developing given frontogenetical frcg expected into the evng hrs. Expect that snow will rmn acrs the northwest thru the day tomorrow as upr lvl trof continues to work it`s way east thru Canada. Upr lvl ridge will be building in fm the west on Wed evng at the tail end of the near term pd. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The surface low slowly exits across the Maritimes Wednesday night, with upper level low pressure remaining across the region. Expect a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Wednesday night with light additional accumulations possible. Expect decreasing snow showers Downeast. The upper low remains across the region Thursday. Expect skies will remain mostly cloudy across the north and mountains Thursday along with decreasing snow shower chances. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers early Thursday then decreasing clouds during the afternoon. The upper low drifts east across the Maritimes Thursday night, while high pressure builds across the region at the surface/aloft. Expect mostly/partly cloudy skies across northern areas Thursday night, with generally partly cloudy skies Downeast. High pressure will exit across the Maritimes early Friday. Low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward the region later Friday. Clouds will increase early Friday. Overrunning warm advection precipitation will then expand across the region through the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation in the form of snow across much of the region Friday afternoon. However, a snow/rain mix could develop Downeast particularly near the coast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Thursday/Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure could develop along the occluded front crossing the region Friday night. Precipitation will remain in the form of accumulating snow across northern areas Friday night, though snow totals are still uncertain. A snow/rain mix is expected Downeast Friday night. The low exits across the Maritimes early Saturday. Could still have a chance of snow or snow showers across the north and mountains early Saturday with the exiting low, with decreasing snow shower chances during the afternoon. Snow/rain shower chances will decrease Downeast early Saturday. High pressure should cross the region early Sunday. Low pressure should develop south of the region later Sunday. Uncertainty exists later Sunday through Monday regarding the track and intensity of the low. Precipitation chances, types and amounts with this potential system will be dependent on the eventual track and intensity of the low. The system should exit across the Maritimes Tuesday, with an upper level trof remaining across the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north with possibly a slight chance of snow showers, partly cloudy Downeast, Tuesday. Expect above normal level temperatures Saturday/Sunday, with the warmer temperatures Saturday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Monday. Below normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR for northern terminals in moderate snow becoming IFR after 06z at KFVE and after 23z at KCAR, KPQI and KHUL. KHUL begin to mix with sleet after 23z and maintain -snpl through Wed morning. Downeast terminals will see IFR sleet into this evening, before mixing with -fzra at BGR and -ra at BHB. Expect IFR cigs through remainder of TAF forecast. LLWS from the ENE at FL020 between 45-60kts this afternoon, diminishing this evening at srn terminals and after midnight across the north. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Thursday...MVFR/VFR north with a chance of snow showers. MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of snow showers early Downeast, then VFR during the afternoon. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Thursday night...VFR/MVFR north, VFR Downeast. Light winds. Friday...VFR early, MVFR late with a chance of snow north and a chance of snow/rain Downeast. Light winds early, then south/southeast 10 to 15 knots. Friday night...IFR/LIFR. Snow north. Snow, or a snow/rain mix, Downeast. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots early, becoming west/northwest late. Saturday...MVFR/IFR early, VFR/MVFR late. A chance of snow early mostly north. West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR north and mountains, VFR Downeast. West winds 15 to 20 knots early then decreasing. Sunday...VFR early, then uncertainty late. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Update...Winds still gusting AOA 35 kt over the outer zones, but the trends have been for the winds to drop back with the next few hrs. Decided to let the Gale Warning expire, and issued a Small Craft Advisory w/winds 20-30 kt sustained. A few gusts to 35 kt still possible for the next few hrs. Previous Discussion... Winds likely to drop blo gales within the next 1-2 hrs and below SCA levels shortly bfr midnight. However, seas will remain elevated thru the day on Wed. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday night, then again later Friday. A slight chance of snow/rain showers Wednesday night. A chance of rain/snow later Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Storm surge of over 1 1/2 feet is still expected with the high tide near 130am tonight, but with a relatively low astronomical tide, coastal flooding is not expected. In terms of wave runup, some minor overwash is possible on Seawall Road and other vulnerable spots on Mount Desert Island and the Schoodic Peninsula, but wave heights are expected to decrease significantly compared to this afternoon`s high tide. As a result, will not be issuing any coastal headlines at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>005- 010-031. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ006-011- 015-016-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
523 PM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 Mild temperatures this afternoon with several locations over the far eastern Wyoming plains and western Nebraska panhandle near 65 degrees this afternoon. High temperatures may approach 70 for locations like Scottsbluff and Sidney before the higher clouds begin to move in. Pleasant temperatures observed further to the west with readings in the upper 50s to near 60 around Cheyenne and Douglas, and upper 40s west of the Laramie Range. Tricky wind forecast for tonight as models continue to show the next cold front pushing into far western Wyoming with relatively mild temperatures along and east of the I-25 corridor. 700mb winds are a little stronger compared to this time yesterday with values approaching 55-60 knots late tonight and into early Wednesday. However, near surface gradients do not look too impressive; but can`t ignore the mountain wave potential with all models showing a signature signal for mountain wave activity, which you can already see on Visible Satellite this afternoon. Felt comfortable enough to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning for the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone starting at 11 pm tonight. This is a conditional forecast so it`s not 100% certain at this point, but the Arlington/Elk Mountain area has the best potential to see gusts over 58 mph from both the mountain wave activity and frontal passage. Kept the High Wind Watch going for the central & southern Laramie Range including the Bordeaux area mainly due to less confidence. May need to keep these watches going through tonight since short-fused warnings are the best approach in this situation. Stronger winds can`t be ruled out for other areas along the I-25 corridor and the Laramie Valley as well, but confidence is pretty low at this point. For Wednesday through early Thursday, models continue to be in good agreement both on run-to-run consistent and compared to others. Cold front will quickly push southeast across the region and into Carbon and Converse county between 900 AM and noon, with timing closer to the late afternoon/evening hours towards the southern Nebraska panhandle. Snow will quickly develop across the mountains tonight, but is not expected to reach the high valleys and eastern plains until early morning (high valleys west of I-25), and late afternoon/evening for the eastern plains. Some rain is possible at the onset with the HRRR showing some convective elements across the Nebraska panhandle late Wednesday afternoon. Current snow forecast remains on track with only minor updates made today. Both mountain zones look good with some north and west facing slopes/ridges likely seeing a foot of snow by noon Thursday. Went ahead and upgraded the Winter Storm Watches to Warnings for both locations with the higher elevations and peaks seeing around 10 to 15 inches of snow. Much lower amounts as you head into the valleys and high plains since downslope winds/subsidence behind the front will be tough to overcome. Generally, kept snow accumulations up to one inch for the lower elevations with a few exceptions. The northern panhandle over the Converse county in addition to portions of the Laramie Valley may see slightly higher amounts due to favorable upslope north to northwest winds behind the cold front late Wednesday night. However, the cold front and associated upper level trough will be very progressive, so some moderate to heavy snowfall will likely be pretty brief. May see around 2 inches of snow for these locations. High resolution models are favoring the north faces slopes of the northern Snowy Range, so issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Elk Mountain/Arlington area and made it valid just after the High Wind Warning expires as impacts will switch from high winds to falling/drifting snow through early Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to improve by Thursday afternoon with decreasing clouds, but isolated snow showers and cold temperatures will remain over the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 Brief break in the weather Friday before the next upper shortwave dives southeast out of Canada and across the region by late Friday. This will bring a surge of colder arctic air in its wake with some upslope snows mainly Friday night into Saturday. Right now snowfall amounts not looking too heavy as moisture is somewhat limited as well as dynamics. After that the arctic boundary may slip a little northeast Sunday before the next weak impulse drops across and pushes the boundary back sw again Monday. Temps will be a bit tricky as a result. Some light snow possible again mainly over the northern part of the CWA Monday closer to where the boundary will exist. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 515 PM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 VFR under FEW to SCT high ceilings and west to northwest winds gusting to 25 kts west of the Laramie Range. Increasing and lowering clouds overnight ahead of winter weather. -SHSN will begin west to east after 03/06Z, first across the mountains and KRWL, spreading east by the afternoon, with increasing gusts across the Plains. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely by the end of the TAF period, and sooner at KRWL. LIFR is possible as well, especially in BLSN. Mountain obscuration likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 Minimal fire weather concerns this week. The very dry airmass over portions of the area will continue into this evening as moisture begins to increase in the boundary layer. Humidities will trend much higher over the next few days as a strong Pacific cold front moves across the area on Wednesday. Much colder temperatures, high relative humidities, and several chances for accumulating snow are expected beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112-114. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ110. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MST Thursday for WYZ110. High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ106-116-117. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...AB FIRE WEATHER...TJT