Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/28/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Nnw flow lake effect snow showers continues. There is slow eastward translation of some of the bands off of Lake MI, indicative of slow backing of the flow. Bands are not persistently strong, but a few blips of stronger returns are noted. Recently, there is uptick in returns upstream of Gd Trav Bay, implying an imminent increase in snow showers near and a bit east of TVC. Keeping an eye on radar trends, and have boosted pops for the band that extends from Petoskey to a bit west of the office. But the overall gist of the forecast is fine. A touch more backing of the flow will be seen between now and 09Z/4am, and banding in northern lower MI will be shunted a bit eastward with time. In eastern upper, the mass of cold air on Ontario should impede that eastward expansion as it spreads out. UPDATE Issued at 716 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Have bumped up pops/snow amounts tonight in the Elk Rapids-S Boardman stretch to 2-3" (for now). Best banding early this evening in nw lower MI has settled into that area. Recent RAP runs favor that area at least off-and-on thru the night, even as winds back a bit. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Thursday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 ...Modest lake effect snow continues... High Impact Weather Potential: Minor. Lake snow showers through Thursday will lead to periodic visibility reductions and may lead to slick roads. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals a pair of short-waves traversing through eastern NOAM, one rolling through the lower Ohio Valley, and a second closed low over eastern Ontario. Surface high pressure stretches from south- central Canada down through the central CONUS, edging it`s way eastward into the Great Lakes. Larger scale subsidence and drier air across northern Michigan has produced some sunshine across the region today. But a cold airmass (-18C to -20C H8 air) and resulting lake instability has/is overcoming that some some extent, with lake induced snow showers ongoing. With daytime heating/boundary layer expansion, snow showers have spread out a bit/becoming more cellular this afternoon, lessening accumulations for any one area. But where snow showers have been most persistent we have been getting reports of accumulations in the 2 to 4 inch/per 12 hour range from this stuff. Generally status-quo through Thursday as surface high pressure gradually edges into the western Great Lakes with only modest changes in lake effect snow potential. BufKit soundings show lake induced CAPE values running 300-500 J/Kg through Thursday with inversion heights holding right around 5K feet and low level mean flow holding in that NW/NNW flow direction. With loss of heating this evening, I anticipate lake banding to once again re-organize with the bigger impacts in areas mostly US-131 and westward, parts of NE Lower Michigan and western Chip/Mack counties. Again, snow accumulations within the more persistent snow showers have been running in the 2 to 4 inch range of fluffy/dry snow every 12 hours or so, and I see no reason to deviate from that at this juncture. Thus I have no plans for any winter weather headlines at this point. But later shifts will of course monitor lake snow intensities/accumulations. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 ...Chilly with A Few Lake Effect Snow showers... High impact weather: None is expected at this time. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops through Friday. It remains cold enough aloft through the period for lake processes to potentially produce lake effect snow showers. However, moisture is waning with mean 850-700 mb rh falling from near 50 percent at 29/00z to between 30 and 35 percent at 29/12z then even less to near 25 percent during the day Friday. In addition, inversion heights fall from between 2500 and 3000 feet to near 2000 feet during the same time period. Therefore, any lingering lake effect in northwest lower and eastern upper should be very light and not accumulate much or at all (may be more like just flurries). Similar conditions during the day Friday then winds lighten up Friday night into Saturday further limiting activity. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for a change through the period. It still looks like plenty of clouds trapped below the shallow inversion which should limit lows from falling all that much Thursday night. Perhaps some clearing Friday night which could lead to lows falling to near or even below zero in a few spots. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 ...Minimal Weather Concerns with Moderating Temperatures... High impact weather: None is expected. Not a whole lot is expected weatherwise through the long term with perhaps more active weather just beyond the scope of this forecast (late next week). Extended models are coming into better agreement that low pressure slides by well south of the region Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore, have pushed slight chance pops down into far southern counties and have doubts that precipitation will even make it that far north. Otherwise, the region is expected to be in between upper level high pressure (an omega block) to the west and troughing moving by to the north. This should keep the area sheltered from any incoming sensible weather for the most part. Temperatures are expected to moderate to slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Prevailing MVFR to VFR cigs, with brief IFR vsbys possible. Light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers continue in chilly nw to n flow. These could target any of the TAF sites thru the forecast, with brief IFR vsbys. TVC is the site most likely to be impacted. Snow-liquid ratios will be in the upper teens. Otherwise, the prevailing condition is a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs, and that also will prevail thru this TAF period. N to nw winds will be a touch brisk at times. Those winds back somewhat nw on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Gusty northwesterly winds will lead to small craft advisory headlines on parts of Lake Michigan and Huron tonight, and lingering on Lake Huron Thursday. Otherwise, lake snow showers, cold temperatures will be the main weather concern through Thursday. Getting into that time of year where ice development on the lakes can increase quickly. Current ice forecasts suggest slow to moderate ice growth for the near future. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...BA SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...JZ MARINE...BA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1033 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Northerly onshore flow will produce intermittent periods of light ocean-effect rain/snow showers through tomorrow afternoon. Most of this activity will take place over the Cape and Islands with more isolated activity along the east coast of MA. A surge of cold arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the year to southern New England by Friday morning with sub-zero wind chill temperatures likely. Cold will continue through Saturday with moderating conditions Sunday. There is the potential for a winter storm to affect the area Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1020 PM Update... * Snow showers, mixed with rain at times over Eastern MA could lead to minor accumulations overnight. Forecast is largely on track. Tracking some light rain/snow showers over Eastern MA, especially Cape Ann and the Cape and Islands. This is associated with a weak surface low just off Cape Ann. Hi-res guidance shows a more organized push latter half of tonight into Essex and Northern Plymouth County, possibly clipping Boston as well before pivoting towards the Cape & Islands towards daybreak. Temps look to be marginal, so that will allow rain to mix in and keep snow accumulations to generally under an inch, although areas under a more persistent band may pick up a little bit more. Residual moisture could lead to development of patchy black ice away from the immediate coast, although the larger dew point depressions should keep the black ice occurrence more isolated. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 700 pm update... radar showing light returns along and just east of the coast from Portland ME down to Cape Cod. Web cams and obs have indicated a little bit of light snow and rain associated with the radar signatures. Hi-res models show the development of a weak surface low overnight just offshore of Cape Ann. In association with that, a more consolidated area of light precipitation is expected to develop. So it appears to be a weak mesocale feature combining with instability over the "warmer" ocean waters to generate ocean enhanced precipitation. Models suggest this feature will be most organized late tonight thru mid-morning Thursday. A little discussion here in the office that we might see some 1" or so accumulations over the far eastern tip of Cape Ann by daybreak, per 12z HREF guidance and latest HRRR output. At this point I`m not going to make any substantial changes to the forecast which has 30-40% chance of snow showers across much of eastern MA down to the Cape and Islands for later tonight into Thursday. The forecast already has accumulations of 1-2" by tomorrow afternoon for parts of Cape Ann, and generally a dusting to 1" elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... * Ocean-effect showers continue through Thursday afternoon. * Skies gradually clear from west-east mid-late afternoon Thursday * Cold arctic air brings single digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chills Friday morning. Northerly flow associated with an offshore low-pressure system will continue to produce light ocean-effect snow/rain showers along the east coast of MA and Cape Cod through tomorrow afternoon. As this system slowly moves offshore we`ll begin to see clearing over southern New England late tomorrow afternoon. As the offshore low moves further east over the Atlantic waters, strong CAA at 850 hPa will usher an Arctic air mass into southern New England Thursday night. This will strengthen the pressure gradient over the northeast and produce gusty northwesterly winds that will allow for wind chill temperatures well below 0. A wind chill advisory may be needed as some of the western zones could see wind chill temperatures as low as -15 F. At this time however, most locations are forecast to be above the -15F advisory threshold. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday Through Wednesday Pretty active weather pattern through the period. 12z guidance in fairly decent agreement given the overall evolution of the upper air pattern this weekend and into the middle of next week. Given that relative agreement, relied heavily on the NBM (Nat`l Blend of Models) as a starting point, with some adjustments here and there. In general looking at a shot of pretty cold weather for Friday and Saturday as the flow turns directly out of the north. Cold upper trough lifts out Sunday, however a potent longwave trough develops across the eastern third of the country to start next week. Model guidance showing increasing potential of a fairly strong winter storm to impact the region. Let`s break it down day by day below: Friday: For most of southern New England it`s going to be a downright cold and windy day. With -18 to -22C air at 925mb moving over the region, surface highs are going to be held generally in the teens. A few lucky areas near the coast and Cape and Islands will top out in the lower 20s. This is a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The cold air will promote excellent mixing to about 3000 ft. This will tap into 30-35kt winds and bring them down to the surface. Just what we need when it`s cold...a lot of wind. Expect wind chills below zero much of the day. Wanted to also mention that we expect freezing spray to be an issue over the coastal waters. See the marine section for more details. Probably the more meteorologically interesting feature that we will need to keep a close eye on is an inverted surface trough, extending outward from low pressure well to our east, that will swing from north to south just to the east of Cape Cod during the day. It`s now getting into better "view" of the hi-res models, but since the global models have been showing the formation of this feature for days, that`s a signal of it`s intensity. NAM3km shows some very strong warm air advection and frontogenesis signatures at 850mb and to a slightly lesser extent at 700mb. At the same time, the deep and cold 500mb low center (w/temps about -38C) will move just off the coast. With all the cold air aloft and relatively warm ocean temperatures, this will also result in a very unstable low level lapse rate. Snow squall index values are pegged on the high end just off the coast. Expect that we will see a band of heavy snow showers and squalls just offshore with that surface trough and move fairly rapidly south during the afternoon. Big question is exactly how close it comes to the Cape and southeast MA. Think the bulk will be just east of the Outer Cape, but close enough that a period of moderate snow showers will occur. Looks to be primarily 16-21z timeframe that the event occurs. How strong the convective snow showers will get is a bit uncertain, but think a quick 1-2" in less than an hour is possible. Did bump PoPs up across the Cape. If the trough comes a little further west, 4-6" totals are not out of the question from P-Town down to Chatham. Stay tuned! Friday Night: COLD! Still breezy. Lots of 0-10 degree lows, sub-zero in far western areas. Winds still gusting 10-15mph, so wind chills in most areas will be 0 to 10 below. Saturday: Sunny and still cold, but not as bad as Friday. Highs generally in the 20s area wide. Sunday: Still below normal temperatures, but moderating. Primary weather feature will be increasing clouds. Monday/Tuesday: Longer range global model guidance suggesting a significant winter storm to impact the region. 12z runs of ECMWF, CMC and GFS all show a similar patter with a slow moving low pressure center developing off the mid-Atlantic coast and trekking northeastward. Typical nor`easter track. GFS and Canadian brings it just outside the 40n/70w "benchmark", while the ECMWF is just inside. Obviously the details hinge on quite a few items...exact track, speed, intensity etc. But given the support by the ensembles as well, it appears as the region will be dealing with winter weather to start the week. Stuck with the NBM blend which suggests a rain-snow line somewhere across southeast MA, with the heaviest snows just northwest of that line. Deterministic models suggest QPF of 1-2" of liquid are possible, especially across SE MA. Certainly plausible given the slow motion of the storm and the deep trough tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas. How much is rain vs snow, way too early to tell...but winter fans will likely embrace the snowfall opportunity and perhaps already salivating at the potential. As always, later forecasts will continue to fine tune details. We are still 5-6 days away -- a lot can change. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overall moderate confidence in the forecast. Currently conditions ranging from VFR (primarily western areas) to MVFR across eastern areas, though pushing IFR across the Cape. Forecast concerns revolve around the development of snow showers along the east coast of MA. There is uncertainty into how organized the precipitation will be, though latest guidance suggests a period of light snow across northeast MA developing after 08z or so and lasting into mid-morning. This would primarily impact BOS, with lesser impacts at nearby airports such as BED and OWD. Additional scattered mainly snow showers (though perhaps mixed with rain across the Cape) will continue into the early afternoon for areas south of BOS, into the Cape and Islands. A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will occur within the areas of precipitation. Across western areas, VFR conditions are expected to predominate overnight and especially all day Thursday. A cold front will be moving through the region later in the day. As this happens, surface winds will start to gust above 20 knots, and clearing conditions will develop from west to east. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertainty in the visibility reductions due to expected light snow. Potential for less than 2sm visibilities between 11-15z, but confidence is too low at this point to add to the forecast. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA. && .MARINE... * Gale Watches issued for all waters. Intermittent periods of isolated to scattered rain showers will continue over the eastern waters overnight tonight. Winds will continue to prevail out of the north/northwest tomorrow. By tomorrow night, a strengthening pressure gradient will result in gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters. Currently have a Gale Watch in effect that may be upgraded to a Gale Warning in the next forecast package. Additionally, a surge of cold arctic air in from the north will work in tandem with the gusty winds to create light to moderate freezing spray conditions. Currently have a freezing spray advisory in effect from Midnight Thursday through about 3PM Friday. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>233-235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RM/Nash NEAR TERM...Chai/RM/Nash SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...RM/Nash MARINE...RM
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1015 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure over near Charlotte this evening will track northeast across North Carolina tonight and then off the coast. Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north on Thursday and persist through Saturday. Another storm system will cross the region early Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Wednesday... The forecast appears to be coming along just about as expected. The latest data analysis indicated the core of the mid level trough was advancing eastward over KY and northern TN at mid-evening, with the core of the upper jet extending from the TN valley region east across northern GA - advancing ENE over NC. Low pressure had developed at the surface (1012 mb) over upstate SC. Very modified cool and dry advection courtesy of a high pressure well to our north continued to advance from central VA into north-central NC. However, even this air mass was still too warm to support wintery precipitation. Surface wet bulbs were in the lower to mid 40s, with upper 30s advecting into Person, Vance, Granville (northern tier of NC) counties. That alone would not be enough cold air. However, strong cooling aloft was advancing SE from eastern KY/WVA through SW Virginia, with rain changing to snow noted as far south and east as the Blue Ridge of VA (Galax, Hillsville, Wytheville). Of note, it was so warm today (50s) that even after several hours of rainfall and cooling, it was still 35 at Boone with rain at 900 PM. On a positive side for snow lovers, Jefferson just turned to snow at the last observation. As this dynamic system crosses the Mountains in the next few hours, the rain will overspread all of the region. The rain/snow line should continue to advance from the Mountains into the NW Piedmont around or shortly after midnight. Then, the process of heavy precipitation rates and rapid cooling aloft will allow this transition to occur through the overnight into the Triad, Triangle, and the Coastal Plain. Even the Sandhills should have a brief change to snow very late tonight. Satellite and radar data continue to show the advancement of the shield of heavier precipitation rates over north-central NC between 12 and 4 am, then shift east into the NE-E portions between 4-7 am. Snow banding appears likely with some heavy rates within a couple of the bands expected. As precipitation continues to move expect temperatures to cool rapidly as precipitation rates increase. The warm boundary layer being up so high in is a concern for the transition. This could mean that surface cooling rates will take a little bit longer and result in transition to be delayed slightly. As of 03z, temps are just about where they were expected to be at this stage of the event, with possibly a bit of a lag in the colder air arrival in the NC Northern Mountains. The most recent sounding (00z) from GSO reported a freezing level of about 4700 ft, this is cooler than the RAP model suggests which is a good sign that it is infact cooling a tad quicker. Due to the warm conditions today, the rain to start the event, and the wetness of the snow (with temps dynamically cooling into the lower 30s with the heavy rates well after midnight, we still expect to have 1-2 inches of wet snow, with locally higher totals of 3+ inches possible from the Triangle to RWI and Roanoke Rapids. This is just about the exact forecast as the previous one, with little change in that previous thinking. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... The surface low and upper trough will be moving away from the region on Thursday and Thursday night resulting in cold and dry conditions. Any lingering snow showers or flurries across the Coastal Plain at daybreak will move way by mid morning with mainly sunny skies expected by late morning. Highs will only range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. It will be very cold with lows between 15 and 25 on Thursday night. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... The period will start with shortwave ridging aloft and a ridge of high pressure at the surface extending south from the upper Great Lakes. Low level thicknesses are progged to be in the 1285-1295m range, which should result in morning lows in the upper teens and lower 20s...although some high clouds spilling over the upper ridging could impact lows Saturday morning...with highs int he mid 40s. Sat night through Monday... the atmospheric river producing trough along the west coast today will swing east through the central US and then across the Mid-Atlantic States/Southeast, with models indicating a Miller B low moving up the coast Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS remains a slightly faster, weaker and warmer solution compared to the ECWMF. Wintry precip will be a concern given the intrusion of arctic air preceding the system, although the parent high is forecast to be sub-1040mb and a bit far to the north of the preferred location for optimal cold air supply. The forecast pattern suggests some wintry precip at onset, with a changeover for most of the CWA, followed by some wrap around moisture in the ECWMF`s deeper upper low on Monday. Will keep snow mention confined to the climatological region in the NW Piedmont. The middle of next week appears to be dry with ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system, though models indicate height falls again over the central US and another low pressure system encroaching on the eastern US by the end of the week. Temps should start out slightly below normal and trend to or above normal as the week wears on. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 809 PM Wednesday... The rapidly approaching mid level trough will induce a surface low pressure development offshore later tonight and early Thursday. Rain has already overspread the Mountains, with the rain/snow line still located in SE KY. VFR CIGS will lower to IFR and LIFR conditions with rain developing from the west this evening, spreading into the KFAY and KRWI areas around 05-06z. Initially, the precipitation will be all rain before changing to a mix of rain and snow across the north at around 06Z and then to all wet snow for a short time before ending from west to east between 09 and 12Z. The precipitation will largely be rain across the south with a short period of an hour or two of mixed rain and snow. Conditions will improve notably after 12Z with VFR by 15-18z. Looking beyond Thursday PM, VFR conditions with fair weather is expected Thursday afternoon into Saturday evening. Another storm system will bring a threat of adverse aviation conditions to the area late Saturday and continue into Sunday with some improvement on Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...Badgett/CA SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...Blaes/Badgett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 .DISCUSSION... Low clouds remain very stubborn this evening as any clearing from the west has largely halted over the past hour or two, and clouds have even shown some tendency to build back west. Models not much help right now, but for what its worth the HRRR continues to hold on to low clouds into Thu morning across most of NW AR and NE OK. Forecast update will trend more pessimistic with potential clearing overnight and as such have raised low temps across NW AR and far NE OK. Update out shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 550 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Clearing line currently just west of a KBVO/KTUL line with mostly clear skies at KMLC. Expect clearing line to continue a slow eastward progression for the next couple hours, but should stall, which will likely keep NW AR TAF sites with low clouds through tonight. This coincides with the more pessimistic HRRR solution with MVFR conditions, approaching IFR, across NW AR compared to the MAV/MET guidance. Low clouds should go ahead and scatter out over the Arkansas River valley this evening with VFR conditions at KFSM. With all of that said, uncertainties persist and will likely need to watch for low clouds spreading back into NE OK TAF sites with the potential for patchy fog developing on western periphery of cloud deck. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/ DISCUSSION... Low clouds have been slow to erode today, which casts some doubt as to whether they will clear at all overnight across parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will count on at least partial clearing later, which will allow temperatures to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s in most places. Southerly winds will return Thursday, which will mark the beginning of a warming trend. Fire weather concerns will be on the rise the next couple days, especially Friday as southerly winds gust over 20 miles an hour and temperatures warm well above normal. The next storm system will move out of the southwest U.S. and across the southern plains Saturday, bringing widespread showers. Temperatures behind this system will fall back to near normal levels Sunday, before warming back to above normal levels early next week. Increasing southerly winds will once again raise fire weather concerns by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Another storm system looks to arrive just beyond the range of this forecast...around Wednesday night and Thursday of next week. Stayed close to the National Blend of Models forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 22 47 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 23 49 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 21 49 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 18 46 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 25 46 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 26 45 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 22 46 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 25 45 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 20 47 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 24 49 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14