Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/28/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
Nnw flow lake effect snow showers continues. There is slow
eastward translation of some of the bands off of Lake MI,
indicative of slow backing of the flow. Bands are not persistently
strong, but a few blips of stronger returns are noted. Recently,
there is uptick in returns upstream of Gd Trav Bay, implying an
imminent increase in snow showers near and a bit east of TVC.
Keeping an eye on radar trends, and have boosted pops for the band
that extends from Petoskey to a bit west of the office. But the
overall gist of the forecast is fine. A touch more backing of the
flow will be seen between now and 09Z/4am, and banding in northern
lower MI will be shunted a bit eastward with time. In eastern
upper, the mass of cold air on Ontario should impede that eastward
expansion as it spreads out.
UPDATE Issued at 716 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
Have bumped up pops/snow amounts tonight in the Elk Rapids-S
Boardman stretch to 2-3" (for now). Best banding early this
evening in nw lower MI has settled into that area. Recent RAP
runs favor that area at least off-and-on thru the night, even as
winds back a bit.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
...Modest lake effect snow continues...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minor. Lake snow showers through
Thursday will lead to periodic visibility reductions and may lead
to slick roads.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals a
pair of short-waves traversing through eastern NOAM, one rolling
through the lower Ohio Valley, and a second closed low over
eastern Ontario. Surface high pressure stretches from south-
central Canada down through the central CONUS, edging it`s way
eastward into the Great Lakes. Larger scale subsidence and drier
air across northern Michigan has produced some sunshine across the
region today. But a cold airmass (-18C to -20C H8 air) and
resulting lake instability has/is overcoming that some some
extent, with lake induced snow showers ongoing. With daytime
heating/boundary layer expansion, snow showers have spread out a
bit/becoming more cellular this afternoon, lessening accumulations
for any one area. But where snow showers have been most persistent
we have been getting reports of accumulations in the 2 to 4
inch/per 12 hour range from this stuff.
Generally status-quo through Thursday as surface high pressure
gradually edges into the western Great Lakes with only modest
changes in lake effect snow potential. BufKit soundings show lake
induced CAPE values running 300-500 J/Kg through Thursday with
inversion heights holding right around 5K feet and low level mean
flow holding in that NW/NNW flow direction. With loss of heating
this evening, I anticipate lake banding to once again re-organize
with the bigger impacts in areas mostly US-131 and westward,
parts of NE Lower Michigan and western Chip/Mack counties. Again,
snow accumulations within the more persistent snow showers have
been running in the 2 to 4 inch range of fluffy/dry snow every 12
hours or so, and I see no reason to deviate from that at this
juncture. Thus I have no plans for any winter weather headlines
at this point. But later shifts will of course monitor lake snow
intensities/accumulations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
...Chilly with A Few Lake Effect Snow showers...
High impact weather: None is expected at this time.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops through Friday.
It remains cold enough aloft through the period for lake processes
to potentially produce lake effect snow showers. However, moisture
is waning with mean 850-700 mb rh falling from near 50 percent at
29/00z to between 30 and 35 percent at 29/12z then even less to near
25 percent during the day Friday. In addition, inversion heights
fall from between 2500 and 3000 feet to near 2000 feet during the
same time period. Therefore, any lingering lake effect in northwest
lower and eastern upper should be very light and not accumulate much
or at all (may be more like just flurries). Similar conditions
during the day Friday then winds lighten up Friday night into
Saturday further limiting activity. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal for a change through the period. It still
looks like plenty of clouds trapped below the shallow inversion
which should limit lows from falling all that much Thursday night.
Perhaps some clearing Friday night which could lead to lows falling
to near or even below zero in a few spots.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
...Minimal Weather Concerns with Moderating Temperatures...
High impact weather: None is expected.
Not a whole lot is expected weatherwise through the long term with
perhaps more active weather just beyond the scope of this forecast
(late next week). Extended models are coming into better agreement
that low pressure slides by well south of the region Saturday night
into Sunday. Therefore, have pushed slight chance pops down into far
southern counties and have doubts that precipitation will even make
it that far north. Otherwise, the region is expected to be in
between upper level high pressure (an omega block) to the west and
troughing moving by to the north. This should keep the area
sheltered from any incoming sensible weather for the most part.
Temperatures are expected to moderate to slightly above normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
Prevailing MVFR to VFR cigs, with brief IFR vsbys possible.
Light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers continue in
chilly nw to n flow. These could target any of the TAF sites thru
the forecast, with brief IFR vsbys. TVC is the site most likely to
be impacted. Snow-liquid ratios will be in the upper teens. Otherwise,
the prevailing condition is a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs, and that
also will prevail thru this TAF period.
N to nw winds will be a touch brisk at times. Those winds back
somewhat nw on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
Gusty northwesterly winds will lead to small craft advisory
headlines on parts of Lake Michigan and Huron tonight, and
lingering on Lake Huron Thursday. Otherwise, lake snow showers,
cold temperatures will be the main weather concern through
Thursday. Getting into that time of year where ice development on
the lakes can increase quickly. Current ice forecasts suggest slow
to moderate ice growth for the near future.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1033 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Northerly onshore flow will produce intermittent periods of
light ocean-effect rain/snow showers through tomorrow afternoon.
Most of this activity will take place over the Cape and Islands
with more isolated activity along the east coast of MA. A surge
of cold arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the
year to southern New England by Friday morning with sub-zero
wind chill temperatures likely. Cold will continue through
Saturday with moderating conditions Sunday. There is the
potential for a winter storm to affect the area Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM Update...
* Snow showers, mixed with rain at times over Eastern MA could
lead to minor accumulations overnight.
Forecast is largely on track. Tracking some light rain/snow
showers over Eastern MA, especially Cape Ann and the Cape and
Islands. This is associated with a weak surface low just off
Cape Ann. Hi-res guidance shows a more organized push latter
half of tonight into Essex and Northern Plymouth County,
possibly clipping Boston as well before pivoting towards the
Cape & Islands towards daybreak. Temps look to be marginal, so
that will allow rain to mix in and keep snow accumulations to
generally under an inch, although areas under a more persistent
band may pick up a little bit more.
Residual moisture could lead to development of patchy black ice
away from the immediate coast, although the larger dew point
depressions should keep the black ice occurrence more isolated.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700 pm update...
radar showing light returns along and just east of the coast
from Portland ME down to Cape Cod. Web cams and obs have
indicated a little bit of light snow and rain associated with
the radar signatures. Hi-res models show the development of a
weak surface low overnight just offshore of Cape Ann. In
association with that, a more consolidated area of light
precipitation is expected to develop. So it appears to be a weak
mesocale feature combining with instability over the "warmer"
ocean waters to generate ocean enhanced precipitation. Models
suggest this feature will be most organized late tonight thru
mid-morning Thursday. A little discussion here in the office
that we might see some 1" or so accumulations over the far
eastern tip of Cape Ann by daybreak, per 12z HREF guidance and
latest HRRR output. At this point I`m not going to make any
substantial changes to the forecast which has 30-40% chance of
snow showers across much of eastern MA down to the Cape and
Islands for later tonight into Thursday. The forecast already
has accumulations of 1-2" by tomorrow afternoon for parts of
Cape Ann, and generally a dusting to 1" elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
* Ocean-effect showers continue through Thursday afternoon.
* Skies gradually clear from west-east mid-late afternoon
Thursday
* Cold arctic air brings single digit temperatures and sub-zero
wind chills Friday morning.
Northerly flow associated with an offshore low-pressure system
will continue to produce light ocean-effect snow/rain showers
along the east coast of MA and Cape Cod through tomorrow
afternoon. As this system slowly moves offshore we`ll begin to
see clearing over southern New England late tomorrow afternoon.
As the offshore low moves further east over the Atlantic waters,
strong CAA at 850 hPa will usher an Arctic air mass into
southern New England Thursday night. This will strengthen
the pressure gradient over the northeast and produce gusty
northwesterly winds that will allow for wind chill temperatures
well below 0. A wind chill advisory may be needed as some of the
western zones could see wind chill temperatures as low as -15
F. At this time however, most locations are forecast to be above
the -15F advisory threshold.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday Through Wednesday
Pretty active weather pattern through the period. 12z guidance in
fairly decent agreement given the overall evolution of the upper air
pattern this weekend and into the middle of next week. Given that
relative agreement, relied heavily on the NBM (Nat`l Blend of
Models) as a starting point, with some adjustments here and there.
In general looking at a shot of pretty cold weather for Friday and
Saturday as the flow turns directly out of the north. Cold upper
trough lifts out Sunday, however a potent longwave trough develops
across the eastern third of the country to start next week. Model
guidance showing increasing potential of a fairly strong winter
storm to impact the region. Let`s break it down day by day below:
Friday: For most of southern New England it`s going to be a
downright cold and windy day. With -18 to -22C air at 925mb moving
over the region, surface highs are going to be held generally in the
teens. A few lucky areas near the coast and Cape and Islands will
top out in the lower 20s. This is a good 15 to 20 degrees below
normal. The cold air will promote excellent mixing to about 3000 ft.
This will tap into 30-35kt winds and bring them down to the surface.
Just what we need when it`s cold...a lot of wind. Expect wind chills
below zero much of the day. Wanted to also mention that we expect
freezing spray to be an issue over the coastal waters. See the
marine section for more details.
Probably the more meteorologically interesting feature that we will
need to keep a close eye on is an inverted surface trough, extending
outward from low pressure well to our east, that will swing from
north to south just to the east of Cape Cod during the day. It`s now
getting into better "view" of the hi-res models, but since the
global models have been showing the formation of this feature for
days, that`s a signal of it`s intensity. NAM3km shows some very
strong warm air advection and frontogenesis signatures at 850mb
and to a slightly lesser extent at 700mb. At the same time, the
deep and cold 500mb low center (w/temps about -38C) will move
just off the coast. With all the cold air aloft and relatively
warm ocean temperatures, this will also result in a very
unstable low level lapse rate. Snow squall index values are
pegged on the high end just off the coast. Expect that we will
see a band of heavy snow showers and squalls just offshore with
that surface trough and move fairly rapidly south during the
afternoon. Big question is exactly how close it comes to the
Cape and southeast MA. Think the bulk will be just east of the
Outer Cape, but close enough that a period of moderate snow
showers will occur. Looks to be primarily 16-21z timeframe that
the event occurs. How strong the convective snow showers will
get is a bit uncertain, but think a quick 1-2" in less than an
hour is possible. Did bump PoPs up across the Cape. If the
trough comes a little further west, 4-6" totals are not out of
the question from P-Town down to Chatham. Stay tuned!
Friday Night: COLD! Still breezy. Lots of 0-10 degree lows, sub-zero
in far western areas. Winds still gusting 10-15mph, so wind chills
in most areas will be 0 to 10 below.
Saturday: Sunny and still cold, but not as bad as Friday. Highs
generally in the 20s area wide.
Sunday: Still below normal temperatures, but moderating. Primary
weather feature will be increasing clouds.
Monday/Tuesday: Longer range global model guidance suggesting a
significant winter storm to impact the region. 12z runs of ECMWF,
CMC and GFS all show a similar patter with a slow moving low
pressure center developing off the mid-Atlantic coast and trekking
northeastward. Typical nor`easter track. GFS and Canadian brings it
just outside the 40n/70w "benchmark", while the ECMWF is just
inside. Obviously the details hinge on quite a few items...exact
track, speed, intensity etc. But given the support by the ensembles
as well, it appears as the region will be dealing with winter
weather to start the week. Stuck with the NBM blend which suggests
a rain-snow line somewhere across southeast MA, with the heaviest
snows just northwest of that line. Deterministic models suggest QPF
of 1-2" of liquid are possible, especially across SE MA. Certainly
plausible given the slow motion of the storm and the deep trough
tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas. How much is
rain vs snow, way too early to tell...but winter fans will likely
embrace the snowfall opportunity and perhaps already salivating at
the potential. As always, later forecasts will continue to fine tune
details. We are still 5-6 days away -- a lot can change.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Overall moderate confidence in the forecast.
Currently conditions ranging from VFR (primarily western areas)
to MVFR across eastern areas, though pushing IFR across the
Cape. Forecast concerns revolve around the development of snow
showers along the east coast of MA. There is uncertainty into
how organized the precipitation will be, though latest guidance
suggests a period of light snow across northeast MA developing
after 08z or so and lasting into mid-morning. This would
primarily impact BOS, with lesser impacts at nearby airports
such as BED and OWD. Additional scattered mainly snow showers
(though perhaps mixed with rain across the Cape) will continue
into the early afternoon for areas south of BOS, into the Cape
and Islands. A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will occur within
the areas of precipitation.
Across western areas, VFR conditions are expected to predominate
overnight and especially all day Thursday.
A cold front will be moving through the region later in the day.
As this happens, surface winds will start to gust above 20
knots, and clearing conditions will develop from west to east.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertainty in the visibility
reductions due to expected light snow. Potential for less than
2sm visibilities between 11-15z, but confidence is too low at
this point to add to the forecast.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN, chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
* Gale Watches issued for all waters.
Intermittent periods of isolated to scattered rain showers will
continue over the eastern waters overnight tonight. Winds will
continue to prevail out of the north/northwest tomorrow.
By tomorrow night, a strengthening pressure gradient will result
in gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters. Currently have
a Gale Watch in effect that may be upgraded to a Gale Warning in
the next forecast package. Additionally, a surge of cold arctic
air in from the north will work in tandem with the gusty winds
to create light to moderate freezing spray conditions. Currently
have a freezing spray advisory in effect from Midnight Thursday
through about 3PM Friday.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Freezing spray, slight
chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow
showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing
spray. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely,
chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for
ANZ231>233-235-237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RM/Nash
NEAR TERM...Chai/RM/Nash
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...RM/Nash
MARINE...RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1015 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure over near Charlotte this evening will track
northeast across North Carolina tonight and then off the coast. Cold
high pressure will build into the region from the north on Thursday
and persist through Saturday. Another storm system will cross the
region early Sunday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Wednesday...
The forecast appears to be coming along just about as expected.
The latest data analysis indicated the core of the mid level trough
was advancing eastward over KY and northern TN at mid-evening, with
the core of the upper jet extending from the TN valley region east
across northern GA - advancing ENE over NC. Low pressure had
developed at the surface (1012 mb) over upstate SC. Very modified
cool and dry advection courtesy of a high pressure well to our north
continued to advance from central VA into north-central NC. However,
even this air mass was still too warm to support wintery
precipitation. Surface wet bulbs were in the lower to mid 40s, with
upper 30s advecting into Person, Vance, Granville (northern tier of
NC) counties. That alone would not be enough cold air.
However, strong cooling aloft was advancing SE from eastern KY/WVA
through SW Virginia, with rain changing to snow noted as far south
and east as the Blue Ridge of VA (Galax, Hillsville, Wytheville).
Of note, it was so warm today (50s) that even after several hours of
rainfall and cooling, it was still 35 at Boone with rain at 900 PM.
On a positive side for snow lovers, Jefferson just turned to snow at
the last observation.
As this dynamic system crosses the Mountains in the next few hours,
the rain will overspread all of the region. The rain/snow line
should continue to advance from the Mountains into the NW Piedmont
around or shortly after midnight. Then, the process of heavy
precipitation rates and rapid cooling aloft will allow this
transition to occur through the overnight into the Triad, Triangle,
and the Coastal Plain. Even the Sandhills should have a brief change
to snow very late tonight.
Satellite and radar data continue to show the advancement of the
shield of heavier precipitation rates over north-central NC between
12 and 4 am, then shift east into the NE-E portions between 4-7 am.
Snow banding appears likely with some heavy rates within a couple of
the bands expected. As precipitation continues to move expect
temperatures to cool rapidly as precipitation rates increase. The
warm boundary layer being up so high in is a concern for the
transition. This could mean that surface cooling rates will take a
little bit longer and result in transition to be delayed slightly.
As of 03z, temps are just about where they were expected to be at
this stage of the event, with possibly a bit of a lag in the colder
air arrival in the NC Northern Mountains. The most recent sounding
(00z) from GSO reported a freezing level of about 4700 ft, this is
cooler than the RAP model suggests which is a good sign that it is
infact cooling a tad quicker.
Due to the warm conditions today, the rain to start the event, and
the wetness of the snow (with temps dynamically cooling into the
lower 30s with the heavy rates well after midnight, we still expect
to have 1-2 inches of wet snow, with locally higher totals of 3+
inches possible from the Triangle to RWI and Roanoke Rapids. This is
just about the exact forecast as the previous one, with little
change in that previous thinking.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Wednesday...
The surface low and upper trough will be moving away from the
region on Thursday and Thursday night resulting in cold and dry
conditions. Any lingering snow showers or flurries across the
Coastal Plain at daybreak will move way by mid morning with
mainly sunny skies expected by late morning. Highs will only
range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. It will be very cold with
lows between 15 and 25 on Thursday night. -Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...
The period will start with shortwave ridging aloft and a ridge of
high pressure at the surface extending south from the upper Great
Lakes. Low level thicknesses are progged to be in the 1285-1295m
range, which should result in morning lows in the upper teens and
lower 20s...although some high clouds spilling over the upper
ridging could impact lows Saturday morning...with highs int he mid
40s.
Sat night through Monday... the atmospheric river producing trough
along the west coast today will swing east through the central US
and then across the Mid-Atlantic States/Southeast, with models
indicating a Miller B low moving up the coast Sunday/Sunday night.
The GFS remains a slightly faster, weaker and warmer solution
compared to the ECWMF. Wintry precip will be a concern given the
intrusion of arctic air preceding the system, although the parent
high is forecast to be sub-1040mb and a bit far to the north of the
preferred location for optimal cold air supply. The forecast
pattern suggests some wintry precip at onset, with a changeover for
most of the CWA, followed by some wrap around moisture in the
ECWMF`s deeper upper low on Monday. Will keep snow mention confined
to the climatological region in the NW Piedmont.
The middle of next week appears to be dry with ridging in the wake
of the aforementioned system, though models indicate height falls
again over the central US and another low pressure system
encroaching on the eastern US by the end of the week. Temps should
start out slightly below normal and trend to or above normal as the
week wears on.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 809 PM Wednesday...
The rapidly approaching mid level trough will induce a surface low
pressure development offshore later tonight and early Thursday. Rain
has already overspread the Mountains, with the rain/snow line still
located in SE KY. VFR CIGS will lower to IFR and LIFR conditions
with rain developing from the west this evening, spreading into the
KFAY and KRWI areas around 05-06z.
Initially, the precipitation will be all rain before changing
to a mix of rain and snow across the north at around 06Z and then to
all wet snow for a short time before ending from west to east
between 09 and 12Z. The precipitation will largely be rain across
the south with a short period of an hour or two of mixed rain and
snow. Conditions will improve notably after 12Z with VFR by 15-18z.
Looking beyond Thursday PM, VFR conditions with fair weather is
expected Thursday afternoon into Saturday evening. Another storm
system will bring a threat of adverse aviation conditions to the
area late Saturday and continue into Sunday with some improvement on
Monday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST
Thursday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...Badgett/CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Blaes/Badgett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds remain very stubborn this evening as any clearing from
the west has largely halted over the past hour or two, and clouds
have even shown some tendency to build back west. Models not much
help right now, but for what its worth the HRRR continues to hold
on to low clouds into Thu morning across most of NW AR and NE OK.
Forecast update will trend more pessimistic with potential
clearing overnight and as such have raised low temps across NW AR
and far NE OK. Update out shortly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 550 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Clearing line currently just west of a KBVO/KTUL line with mostly
clear skies at KMLC. Expect clearing line to continue a slow
eastward progression for the next couple hours, but should stall,
which will likely keep NW AR TAF sites with low clouds through
tonight. This coincides with the more pessimistic HRRR solution
with MVFR conditions, approaching IFR, across NW AR compared to
the MAV/MET guidance. Low clouds should go ahead and scatter out
over the Arkansas River valley this evening with VFR conditions at
KFSM. With all of that said, uncertainties persist and will likely
need to watch for low clouds spreading back into NE OK TAF sites
with the potential for patchy fog developing on western periphery
of cloud deck.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have been slow to erode today, which casts some doubt
as to whether they will clear at all overnight across parts of far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will count on at least
partial clearing later, which will allow temperatures to fall into
the upper teens to lower 20s in most places.
Southerly winds will return Thursday, which will mark the
beginning of a warming trend. Fire weather concerns will be on the
rise the next couple days, especially Friday as southerly winds
gust over 20 miles an hour and temperatures warm well above
normal.
The next storm system will move out of the southwest U.S. and
across the southern plains Saturday, bringing widespread showers.
Temperatures behind this system will fall back to near normal
levels Sunday, before warming back to above normal levels early
next week. Increasing southerly winds will once again raise fire
weather concerns by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Another
storm system looks to arrive just beyond the range of this
forecast...around Wednesday night and Thursday of next week.
Stayed close to the National Blend of Models forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 22 47 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 23 49 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 21 49 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 46 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 46 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 26 45 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 22 46 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 25 45 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 20 47 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 24 49 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14