Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/16/21

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
915 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Clouds will remain across much of the eastern cwa through the night with winds slowly decreasing across all of the cwa. Temperatures will fall into the teens by morning. UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Updated for the expiration of the blizzard warning. UPDATE Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 00z aviation discussion updated below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 308 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Sustained northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts of 40-45 mph will continue subsiding through this evening and overnight. Eastern South Dakota is currently seeing some of the higher winds gusts, with blowing snow noted on webcams. Patchy freezing drizzle has also been observed. Buffer soundings indicate the loss of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, more widespread freezing drizzle will be possible. The past few runs of the RUC shows a deep moist layer from 0-2 KM remaining over the far eastern CWA through at least 9Z. May need to replace the blizzard warning in eastern SD with a winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle and blowing snow. The current blizzard headline expires at 0Z, which seems reasonable at this time. The rest of the short term, through Saturday night, appears dry for this CWA. Northerly flow aloft, along with weak increasing heights, limited to no CAA, temperatures should remain above normal for this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 308 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Not much of a change in the overall pattern in the extended from previous forecast iterations. Our region will be under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft. Models remain in fairly decent agreement on progging a clipper system to move through the region by late Sunday through Monday. In-house blend continues to generate roughly a tenth of an inch of QPF in portions of our north and western forecast area. This would give those zones upwards of an inch or so of snow. This coincides with other available guidance, so no reason to deviate the forecast at this time. The remainder of the period looks to become more quiet. Temperatures will modify some as midweek approaches and an area of low pressure tracks across southern Canada by Wednesday. We will look to stay mostly dry as the upper pattern shifts from northwesterly flow to split flow and precipitating systems get diverted away from our area. A sfc frontal passage toward the end of the period will bring cooler conditions back into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR stratus will slowly decrease from west to east across south dakota through the night and Saturday. ABR and ATY will the most affected with ABR becoming VFR on Saturday. Otherwise, the winds will also decrease from the northwest tonight and then increase again on Saturday to 15 to 25 knots mainly at PIR and MBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mohr SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...Mohr
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
903 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area this evening, followed by cool high pressure through the weekend. A low pressure system could affect the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The back edge of the rain will clear McClellanville shortly with dry conditions prevailing thereafter. Although the cold front is approaching the I-95 corridor, the core of the driest air is trailing the front by several hours. As skies have cleared and winds are dropping off in the wake of the front, areas of fog have rapidly developed. Webcams from Claxton and Statesboro along with county warning point reports across the Savannah River into Allendale indicate the dense fog has become fairly widespread. The most dense fog appears to be aligning well with the lowest 1000 hPa RAP condensation pressure deficit progs from its 17/00z run. The output expands the dense fog into Walterboro soon and possibly as far east as Dorchester and lower Charleston County. Given the current trends, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from Bulloch and Screven Counties in Georgia northeast to Inland Colleton in South Carolina through midnight. Although patchy dense fog will linger in the Millen- Reidsville-Ludowici region over the next 1-2 hours, the risk for more significant dense fog will persist over the Dense Fog Advisory area. The advisory could very well be cancelled for some zones prior to midnight (best chances for this is in the Georgia zones) as drier air advects in from the west. Similarly, an expansion into Dorchester and Charleston Counties could be needed. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The mid-levels will consist of a trough moving over the East Coast Saturday, followed by zonal flow Sunday, then another trough swinging through the East Coast on Monday. At the surface, broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains Saturday will pass to our south on Sunday, with a second, reinforcing high following the same path and becoming located to our southwest on Monday. The highs will bring strong subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly clear skies to our area. Saturday will be the coldest day of the bunch due to cold air advection. Additionally, 850 mb temperatures and thickness values only support temperatures in the upper 40s to maybe 50 degrees at best. It`ll be breezy as well, especially in the afternoon. Wind gusts could reach into the 30s, especially at the beaches. Saturday night, winds are expected to ease. But good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to bottom out in the 20s inland and near freezing along the immediate coast. Temperatures should warm 1-3 degrees on Sunday and then again on Monday at the airmass moderates. Lake Winds: Strong cold air advection will cause wind gusts to reach 25 kt across Lake Moultrie on Saturday. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue building into the region with the center generally focused in the Southeast. A dry/rain- free forecast is in place through Thursday. By Friday, weak low pressure crossing the Appalachians along with upper-level shortwave activity focused mainly in the Northeast will propagate over the region, possibly bringing light scattered showers Friday afternoon into early Saturday. A tight moisture gradient will accompany this disturbance; therefore, showers will likely fall where the greatest moisture content aligns itself, which could be limited to just our northern counties where weak forcing mechanisms are in place. A gradual warming trend is anticipated through the period with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday climbing well into the 60s late week. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong cold front continues to move through the terminals this evening, with showers lingering a little longer than anticipated. Have continued mention of rain as well as MVFR cigs at each terminal until around 02/03Z when the showers should move all the way offshore. VFR will prevail thereafter, but will have to watch for a brief period fog/stratus to form between the end of the steadier rains and FROPA, mainly at KCHS. Beginning around daybreak, gusty west winds will arrive at each terminal, bringing gusts upwards of 25-30 knots and continuing into the afternoon hours. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... This Evening and Tonight: A strong cold front will approach the local waters, likely passing offshore during the early overnight period. Southerly winds around 10-15 kt should increase once fropa occurs, turning west and increasing up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across offshore Georgia waters and nearshore waters off the Charleston County coast. Seas will also build, reaching 3-5 ft overnight. Given the expected trend, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for offshore Georgia waters and northern SC waters this evening and through tonight. Winds could become marginally supportive of advisories in remaining marine zones late tonight, but should remain just below advisory levels before increasing around daybreak. Saturday: The combination of high pressure building into the region and cold air advection will lead to an elevated surface pressure gradient. Expect strong, gusty winds, especially in the afternoon. Gusts could be near gale during this time period, mainly across the easternmost portions of the Charleston waters and the GA waters beyond 50 nm. But the areal and time coverage doesn`t appear to be great enough to prompt Gale Warnings. Instead, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the ocean waters, now including the Charleston Harbor. The gradient will level off in the evening and overnight, causing winds and seas to lower. All Advisories should expire by daybreak Sunday. Sunday and beyond: High pressure will prevail. There is a potential for Small Craft Advisories again Sunday night into Monday, mainly due to wind gusts. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for GAZ088-100- 101. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for SCZ040-042- 043-047. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for AMZ330. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
808 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Update/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 - Snow impacts through tonight - Another round of snow for Saturday night into Sunday night - Possible significant cool down end of next week into the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 I plan on keeping our headlines as they are. The MDOT road map at 7:50 pm shows continued slow downs north of MOP on M-127 and Route 10 from Clare to Reed City. Looking at road cams and other web cams and also looking at our radar, the snow continues to fall over that area. The south edge of the snow continues to slowly lift northward. The latest HRRR and RAP models show the snow being out of our CWA by midnight and those models have been tracking the snow nicely all day. It looks like another 1 to 2 inches may fall there before it all ends later this evening. So, based on the roads showing slow downs and that snow continues to fall it makes sense to keep the Winter Weather Advisory through 11 pm. Otherwise clearing ( actual clear skies) have moved northward into our southern CWA (dry slot of the occluded system). Most of our observation sites along I-94 now show clear skies. This likely will lead to icy spots on area roads but also sidewalks and parking lots so be careful if your walking around outside tonight. I will update the HWO to say that shortly. The back edge of the system will bring the snow showers back into the area from west to east but this will be a slow process and it will mostly impact areas west of US-131 Saturday afternoon into the evening. Snowfall from this will be light and temperatures will likely be just above freezing so I not see this an unusually hazardous event. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 - Snow impacts through tonight The mid level low centered over SW IL will continue to spread a band of snow through the CWA this afternoon into the evening. Based on satellite and radar trends...the northern zones will see the best chance for accumulating snow. While temperatures will largely remain above freezing through mid to late afternoon...the temperature will drop off a few degrees after sunset. Thus the impacts are expected to increase then. Based on many of the models...several more inches of snow are possible where we have the winter weather advisory out. Thus we will keep the headline going and it may need to be extended if the snow and associated impacts persist after midnight. The snow is expected to taper off after evening as mid level heights start to rise and a ridge approaches from the west. - Another round of snow for Saturday night into Sunday night An upper level jet streak strengthens as is dives down the west side of the trough over the plains Saturday night into Sunday. This develops mid level wave that tracks through IL and IN. Being on the north side of this mid level wave we will need to monitor the potential for period of snow especially Sunday into Sunday night. Given the stronger height falls that occur...this system has the potential to lead to impacts. - Possible significant cool down end of next week into the weekend Arctic air is shown to build in the Canadian Prairies during this time with 925 mb temps dropping down into the -20 to -30 deg C range. This is considerably different than the current pattern that they are in. The main upper jet shifts well south of the Great Lakes region as a surface wave of low pressure tracks from Ontario to New England Thursday into Friday. On the backside of this departing wave...stronger cold air advection is shown to draw some of the arctic air into MI from the north for Friday. Then...the arctic air is shown to continue to build upstream Saturday with another front headed our way. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 642 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 I am expecting mostly VFR conditions over the CWA tonight as the system slowly moves through the area. The band of snow is lifting north of MKG as I write this. That is followed by an area of clearing that may last 2-3 hours before VFR cigs move back in by 06z. MVFR conditions will return on Saturday as the system slowly moves out of the area. Western sections will see some mixed rain and snow showers in the afternoon from this. && .MARINE... Issued at 808 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 I have issued a Small Craft Advisory for our entire near shore from 2 pm Saturday until 2 pm on Sunday due north to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves to 7 feet. Typically at this time of year there would be ice in the near shore but not this year. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ038>040-044>046. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...MJS DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...WDM MARINE...WDM
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
930 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An anomalously strong mid and upper level low will wobble across the OH Valley and middle Atlantic through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Friday... Regional radar data indicate the lead band of rain and deep moisture has progressed into the NC Coastal Plain this evening; and this band will continue ewd and out of the RAH CWA during the next couple of hours. Clearing behind that band of rain, atop continued moist and calm to light and variable flow at the surface, will result in the ewd expansion/development of fog tonight from the wrn and srn Piedmont, including some dense. Light swly flow and incoming drier air now over the Upstate of SC will then begin to overspread the srn NC Piedmont very late tonight; and that developing regime will tend to erode the preceding blanket of low overcast and fog from the southwest through Sat morning. In addition to the threat of dense fog, a small area of precipitation developed across Burke, Alexander, and Caldwell Co. in the past couple of hours and has since moved newd across Yadkin and far wrn Forsyth Co. This precipitation appears to be related to an area of concentrated ascent and moistening ahead of an embedded vort max/perturbation evident over Davie Co. in 02Z/16th WV imagery, and also in an elongated region of upr divergence within the entrance region of a 150-160 kt 250-300 mb jet observed from BMX/FFC newd to GSO/RNK in 00Z upr air data. A chance of rain will consequently result for the next few hours over the nrn Piedmont, before the foregoing perturbation lifts newd into VA. And lastly, WFO GSP shared reports within that precipitation area of a mix of rain and frozen precipitation - likely partially melted snow/graupel given the presence of very weak elevated instability within an already cold (mixed phase) cloud, with partial melting of that frozen precipitation as it falls into a ~750 m above freezing boundary layer per the 00Z GSO sounding and RAP point forecast soundings around the Triad. As such, the rain may mix at times with partially melted snow/graupel, with no accumulation given surface temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday... The broad upper level low responsible for surface low pressure and today`s cold front will remain to the north along the Great Lakes, but a trough associated with the low will rotate over central North Carolina Saturday afternoon. While moisture will be shallow, lapse rates towards the surface will be high resulting in a good amount of low level instability and gusty winds between 20-30 mph. There should be enough moisture and lift from the trough axis to allow for isolated showers to develop. While high temperatures will be in the 40s, the above-freezing layer at the surface will be very thin, considering the high surface lapse rates mentioned earlier. As a result, cannot rule out that showers could be a mix of rain and snow, although with air temperatures in the 40s, no accumulation would be expected. Skies will clear out quickly after sunset with the loss of instability, although winds will remain out of the west-southwest around 5 mph overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... Through Wednesday: A secondary upper low will swing through the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday in the wake of the larger scale low. This low is fairly moisture starved, so have taken chance of rain out of the forecast for Monday. Generally expect high temperatures in the mid 40s NW to around 50 degrees SE Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night will generally be in the upper 20s to low 30s, decreasing for Monday night with lows bottoming out in the mid 20s. Upper level flow will become zonal Tuesday and Wednesday as the sub-tropical ridge begins to strengthen over the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Southeast/FL through Wednesday, with a series of dry, reinforcing cold fronts passing through the mid-Atlantic through mid-week. As the moisture advection into the lower MS Valley increases Wednesday night, there is slight chance some of that moisture could make it into central NC along the frontal zone. Should that occur then there would be a chance for some precipitation, possibly non-liquid, to occur. For now, will keep the weather dry through Wednesday night with increasing chances thereafter. Temperatures will be fairly consistent through the period, with highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 30s. Thursday and Friday: A potent low will dive south through the Rockies into the Desert Southwest Tuesday/Wednesday. A broad northern stream low will migrate south into the western Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday and continue swinging eastward through the Northeast through Friday as the southern stream low weakens over the Southwest, subsequently lifting east-northeast into the Plains/MS Valley. The weather specifics for central NC for the end of the week is still somewhat uncertain as some significant differences exist between the medium-range models, largely with respect to the when, where and how much precipitation will fall. However, there is a consistent signal for good moisture advection into the lower MS Valley ahead of the low/trough, so there is the potential for a decent amount of rainfall. Highs will generally range from the low to upper 50s. Lows should be somewhat mild in the 40s Thursday night, likely decreasing for Friday night. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 710 PM Friday... A band of rain and deep moisture/multi-layered cloudiness will continue to move east and affect FAY and RWI for another couple of hours this evening. Clearing behind that band of rain, atop continued moist and increasingly calm conditions near the surface, will result in the continued development and gradual ewd expansion of LIFR visibility restrictions and LIFR-IFR ceilings that have already enveloped INT/GSO as of 00Z. Light swly flow and incoming drier air now over wrn SC will begin to overspread the area from CLT to FAY very late tonight; and that developing regime will tend to erode the preceding blanket of low overcast and fog from the southwest through Sat morning. While conditions are expected to become VFR area-wide by 13-14Z Sat, VFR ceilings and widely scattered showers will develop with diurnal heating, beneath cold temperatures aloft accompanying a passing mid/upr-level low, between 17-22Z Sat, then dissipate with loss of heating. Additionally, wswly winds may briefly become strong and gust into the 20s kts as the associated mixed/boundary layer deepens during the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are forecast through the middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
952 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will head east of the region overnight. Another system capable of producing some snow across the mountains will move into and across the region on Saturday, and be followed close behind by yet another on Monday. Temperatures start to moderate next week, but will be accompanied by weather systems again potentially on Tuesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 953 PM EST Friday... Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for 7 AM Saturday until 7 AM Sunday for portions of southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia. Fog Advisories remain in effect until 4 am Saturday for Virginia, Carroll, Floyd, Patrick and Henry Counties in Virginia. In North Carolina, Surry, Stokes, Rockingham, Wilkes and Yadkin Counties. HRRR and NARRE along with surface observations support areas of dense fog tonight. Expected winds to increased Saturday morning especially along the southern Blue Ridge as highlighted by NAMnest. This will break up or lift pockets of fog Saturday morning. Adjusted temperatures for tonight into Saturday utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in NBM and coop mos. Lowered low temperatures down in the west to capture the colder readings. Modified pops and weather to include the area of precipitation associated with shortwave rolling east across the southern portions of the forecast area. Used a mixture of HRRR,hires arw and namnest to place the pocket of precipitation. More changes later tonight. As of 655 PM EST Friday... Have introduced more widespread dense fog as well as an advisory as several locations are reporting a quarter mile or less visibility already this evening. Plenty of moisture around and a strengthening inversion should keep conditions favorable for dense fog in the advisory area. A wind shift should arrive 2-4 AM and gradually erode the low level moisture. Areas outside of the dense fog advisory area will see more patchy and transient fog, some of which may be dense. Roadways will become treacherous overnight as temperatures continue to drop into the lower 30s to mid/upper 20s under mostly clear skies. Additional cloud cover/showers will develop in upslope flow by morning west of the Blue Ridge and shift east during the day. As of 230 PM EST Friday... A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Saturday, continuing through Saturday night for parts of the area. A cold front has been progressing across the area this afternoon. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow has been associated with it. Once it has moved passed a particular region, cold air advection is eroding the low level warm nose, thus allowing for either a p-type of either rain or snow, depending upon the local surface temperature. However, by the time this is happening, we are very near the back edge of the precipitation associated with the front. So when pure snow in the west has been starting, it is not lasting too long until the precipitation ends as a whole. By early this evening, only a few hours of precipitation either either mainly rain showers or snow showers will exist across the far northern and eastern parts of the area before it ends. Most of the late evening, and even into the start of the AM hours of Saturday, limited if any precipitation is expected across the region. We will be watching an upper low progress southeast towards the area from the western Great Lakes region. Moisture and lift associated with this feature will bring a return of snow showers to far western portions of the area around daybreak Saturday. During the day, coverage across the mountains will increase, and allow for measurable snowfall, especially at the higher elevations of southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. Snows will continue into Saturday night. With the snow expected in this area on Saturday into Saturday night, will be hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory within this region. Winds will also be on the increase on Saturday. Gusts close to 30 to 40 mph will be possible at some of the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Friday... Confidence is high for brisk/cold weather and scattered snow showers/flurries through the Short Term. A closed low over the Northeast is expected to depart Saturday night. Close on its heals will be another shortwave disturbance which is progged to cross the Ohio Valley Sunday, then across the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night and Monday. This will result in prolonged west to northwest wind flow and moisture into the mountains with an opportunity for snow showers and flurries. Greatest snow accumulations will be across the higher elevations with lesser amounts farther east per downslope drying east of the Blue Ridge. It will remain brisk and cold with temperatures 4 to 8 degrees below normal, but nothing extreme. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will keep wind chill values in the teens, and single digits for the highest elevations. Actual air temperatures are expected to range from around 30 in the mountains to the lower 40s in the piedmont. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Friday... Temperatures are forecast to trend closer to normal for mid-week. A slight moderation of temperature is expected for mid-week as the flow aloft becomes zonal in the eastern CONUS. There is a notable split in the West where a trough detaches from the upper flow over the southwestern CONUS. This configurations suggests the northern stream will remain progressive, supporting fast moving short waves across the northern tier, whereas the southern stream will be more amplified and yielding to the organization of a low pressure system over the Southern Plains. Evolution of the southern stream system for the end of the week is still in question. As long as the northern stream remains confluent and zonal, the tendency will be to keep the developing storm over Texas confined to a latitude. Even if it were to trend farther north with time, the temperature profile would favor more rain than snow. 85H temps of +6 to +10 deg C are being forecast from the Southern Plains across the Deep South for Thursday and Friday...the colder air retreating to the Great Lakes and New England. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 655 PM EST Friday... HRRR and NARRE as well as observations are showing some dense fog develop across the area as the sky clears in the wake of a cold front. Expecting northern NC as well as south central and even southeastern VA to be impacting until a wind shift arrives around 07-09Z. In the meantime LIFR conditions can be expected at times, especially at KLYH and KBCB. As of 1230 PM EST Friday... A cold front is making its way across the area. A mix of snow, sleet and rain is accompanying this feature, along with a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings and VFR/MVFR visibilities. Localized LIFR cigs and IFR vsbys also exist. The front and its features will exit the region this evening, bringing a brief return to improved flight conditions for parts of the area by late this evening. By the time conditions start to improve, they will start to trend downward again as we approach Saturday morning, especially in the west as our next system draws closer to the area. This system will bring scattered snow showers to the mountains Saturday morning. Winds will come around to the west for most locations by the end of today, and increase in speed during the day Saturday. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate to high. Extended Aviation Discussion... Saturday into Sunday, disturbances crossing the area bring snow showers to primarily western parts of the region. Sub-VFR conditions are expected with this activity across mainly the mountains. A break Sunday before a more robust system crosses the area on Monday, bringing the chance of sub-VFR conditions to not only the mountains, but potentially some area east of the crest of the Blue Ridge. By Tuesday, high pressure will start to build into the area. Other than some early morning river/valley patchy fog, VFR conditions are expected. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ007-009-015. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for VAZ016-017-032- 043. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001-018. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NCZ003>005-019- 020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042-043-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...KK/SH SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/SH