Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/11/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery indicates cirrus
across the area and masking any low/mid level clouds. Cloudy
forecast remains on track for tonight, with SW winds continuing 10
to 15 mph, although Grand Forks did drop down into single digits
while the air base remained breezy. Overall, forecast captures
this well, temps on track, and only minor adjustments needed for
this evening update.
UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Expect overnight lows ranging from mid teens to lows as SW winds
continue weak mixing overnight tonight, keeping the temperature
spread across the CWA much tighter than last night, when some
areas neared zero. Low/mid clouds will be scattered and hard to
discern with solid cirrus aloft, which will persist through
sunrise. The most impactful result of the increased winds and
cirrus deck tonight will be limited opportunity for fog
development. Previous forecast covered this well and minimal
changes required.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
500 mb upper low moving into NW Ontario with short wave trough
over Alberta and a ridge into Saskatchewan between the two. Upper
level moisture moving southeast from Sask and SW Manitoba into
North Dakota and NW Minnesota. These high clouds look to be in the
area thru Monday. Now the biggest question is lower level cloud
cover. There remains an area of low clouds SW Manitoba/SE
Saskatchewan into North Dakota moving southeast and 925 mb RH
progs from NAM and HRRR indicate main area of low clouds moving
east and then some clearing of the low clouds with lower clouds
hanging over northern ND and NW MN into Monday. Vsbl satellite pic
indicates low clouds are pretty thin though and upstream shows
some holes. So mostly cloudy into Monday with mix of high
clouds/lower clouds. SW wind will hold up tonight around 10 kts
and enough boundary layer mixing do not anticipate any significant
fog.
Warmer tonight due to more wind and similar temps on Monday for
highs as today with upper 20s to low 30s for most.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
UL ridging will continue to hold strong in the western US this week.
As that ridge amplifies, we will develop northwesterly flow. This
pattern allows more systems to easily traverse the northern plains.
Temperatures will warm as we make it into mid-week, nearing record
highs in some locations in the Red River Valley.
Heading into the weekend, the pattern will change as a system moves
to our north sometime on Thursday. With this system comes the
likelihood of wintry precipitation for the northern plains.
Confidence is low on intensity, track, etc. as ensembles have not
reached a consensus on these factors. It is increasingly likely that
until temperatures cool, a wintry mix will precede the snow. This
could cause some travel impacts, along with the possibility of gusty
winds, but again, the extent of those remains unknown at this time.
Heading into the weekend, things should quiet down once again with
slightly above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Aviators can expect moderate southwest winds tonight along with
predominantly MVFR ceilings across the northern valley to include
GFK and TVF, and BJI later in the evening. FAR and DVL should
remain VFR with some intermittent MVFR possible. Winds will shift
more westerly to northwesterly by noontime tomorrow.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...AK/Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
533 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a
moisture starved shortwave diving southeast over northeast
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Shallow yet widespread overcast
remains stubborn across the region. However, clearing has occurred over
the U.P. and will likely spread south through the afternoon.
After a slow start, it is possible that partial clearing could
move into many areas north of HWY 29 by middle of the evening.
Meanwhile, another shortwave is digging southeast over southern
Canada this afternoon. Forecast concerns revolve around light snow
chances near the U.P. border associated with this shortwave to go
along with the daily cloud/fog trends.
Tonight...Whatever clearing takes place across far northern WI
will likely continue to spread into the early evening hours. But
the airmass isn`t that different than the previous few days. So as
low level winds shift to the west, low clouds and patchy fog are
likely to redevelop late, even despite mid and high clouds
invading the region ahead of the digging shortwave trough. The
tail of this vort max will graze along the U.P. border after
midnight. Some differences in the guidance regarding how much
moisture will exist in the mid- levels. Without seeing much in the
way of precip upstream, prefer to side with the dry solutions.
Lows may occur in the evening where clearing occurred and before
clouds arrive.
Monday...The tail of the shortwave will move across far northeast
WI during the morning without much significance. A second
shortwave may push also push across the region in the afternoon.
The combination of the two will likely help to keep cloud cover
across the area, though some breaks are likely to develop in the
afternoon. Temps will remain in the upper 20s at most locations
away from the Lake and Bay.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
A couple weak, moisture-starved systems are poised to pass north
of the region during the early to mid portion of the work week,
with little impact on our weather. Temperatures will remain well
above normal.
Models agree on a significant pattern change for late in the work
week, but offer vast differences in the details. The GFS has a
potent short-wave passing through the region on Thursday, with an
upper low moving through far NE WI late Thursday night into early
Friday. The ECMWF has an upper low tracking through IL late
Thursday night into Friday, with a strong surface low moving from
northern IL on Thursday night to the Thumb region of Lower MI
Friday evening. Although the overall details are sketchy, there is
enough evidence to support raising the blended model pops from
Thursday into Friday, and maintaining pops in NC WI Friday night
into Saturday for lake-effect snow showers in cold northwest flow
on the back side of the system. Although temperatures are expected
to drop off considerably by next weekend, they will still only
fall to near normal for mid-January.
There will also likely be a period of gusty northwest winds and
possible gales on Lake Michigan as the surge of colder air arrives
late in the week. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, though.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
IFR/LIFR ceilings will remain in place across much of northeast
Wisconsin through this TAF issuance as a temperature inversion
keeps clouds trapped up to 1000ft. Some fog is in place across
central/north-central Wisconsin this evening and will likely
expand overnight into early Monday morning. Generally expecting
vsbys to be in the 1 to 3 mile range at AUW/CWA/RHI before some
improvement occurs Monday afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Cooley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
527 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2021
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a split flow pattern with an
upstream shortwave trough over northern Manitoba and a downstream
ridge from MN to Lake Superior. At the surface, a ridge extended
from Missouri to the Upper Mississippi Valley and the northern Great
Lakes. Weak westerly dry advection and daytime mixing has been
enough to scour out the low clouds over the west half of Upper
Michigan.
The Manitoba shrtwv will drop southeast through the northern Great
Lakes late tonight into Monday morning. Even with moderate to strong
700-300 qvector conv, little pcpn is expected with this feature
given the lack of moisture inflow/availability. Some light snow
showers will be possible into western Upper Michigan. West flow LES
areas will see the best chance for a dusting of light snow as 850 mb
temps drop to around -10C. Since the depth of the low level moisture
to around 3k ft will be marginal for ice nuclei, patchy fzdz may
also be possible.
Southwest winds will be strong enough to maintain mixing and limit
temp drop despite a period of clear skies. Expect min readings in
the upper teens west to the low and mid 20s elsewhere. Despite modest
CAA, highs will gain remain above normal with readings around 30 to
the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2021
The long term will start off with a series of quick moving, weak
shortwaves sinking southeast through the region Tuesday and again
early Wednesday. From there, upstream ridge amplification will begin
Wednesday night over the west coast, translating toward a lower
height anomaly over the Upper Great Lakes into the following week.
This will return the region to more seasonable temperatures and
some lake effect snow toward the end of the week.
Beginning Monday night, a sinking, weak shortwave within the mid-
level northwest flow will move through the region. The better
forcing looks to remain over the lake, so precip looks unlikely
except over far eastern Lake Superior. WAA will likely keep skies
mostly cloudy and overnight lows should fall into the teens in the
interior west and 20s by the lakeshores and east. Through the day on
Tuesday, 850mb temps are progged to approach, or even perhaps
exceed, the 0C mark. This looks to translate to daytime highs near
the freezing mark in the interior and in southwest downsloping
zones, mid 30s.
A similar looking system looks to drop southeast Tuesday night.
There are some differences among the 12z guidance as to where this
system will track. The Canadian appears to be the outlier at the
moment, dropping the system southeastward into Minnesota, whereas
most of the other guidance looks to bring it through the northern
parts of Lake Superior, which I`m more inclined to believe. Q-
vector convergence appears favorable for a dusting of snow mainly in
the Keweenaw, the Michigamme Highlands and east near Lake Superior.
Thursday is looking to be our next best chance for synoptic precip,
but there is still a good bit of uncertainty. As the ridge
amplifies along the west coast, a shortwave will eject out of the
Canadian Rockies. The 12z Euro immediately brings this energy and
developing surface cyclone southeast into the Plains while the GFS
brings it due east into Manitoba and Ontario. The impacts of this
system will depend on the track it takes, and the EC`s more southern
solution implies it could miss us entirely. The GFS implies there
could be some p-type questions in the warm sector ahead of the
southward draping cold front. Certainly something to watch as we
move into this week. What is more certain is the cold air on the
backside of the low. 850mb temps look to fall to around -10-13C;
with the lake still running around +3-4C, this will likely result in
periods of moderate lake effect snow for the north to northwest wind
snow belts beginning Friday. With the colder air aloft sticking
around, lake effect snow looks to continue through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 527 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2021
VFR conditions will continue into this evening. Conditions will
lower again to MVFR at all sites later tonight with the advance of a
cold front from the northwest. The onset of light snow could even
lower vsbys temporarily to IFR at KCMX late tonight into Monday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 351 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2021
A trough moving across Lake Superior late tonight and Monday will
result in increasing WSW winds to around 25-30 kts over the west
and north-central, with a few gale force gusts possible at higher
platforms. Winds will subside below 20 kts by Monday afternoon and
remain below 20 kts through at least Wednesday. A pattern shift
is still looking likely for the end of next week which will bring
colder air across Lake Superior. This colder air will create more
unstable conditions along with gusty north to northwest winds to
at least 30 knots, especially late Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Models all remain consistent with the upper low tracking eastward
across western north Texas into far southeast Oklahoma overnight.
Will keep snow in the weather grids through tonight across our far
south, with the highest POPs extending from near Wichta Falls, Texas
and eastward across our Oklahoma counties adjacent to the Red River,
as much of the widespread activity should stay south of the Red
River. Latest CAMs trending downward snow intensities into the
evening, but will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect there
for a little while longer to see if trends continue. However, the
RAP may be a bit aggressive, but is the only short term model
projecting a final round of snow tonight on the back side of the low
in our southern counties along the Red River. By sunrise Monday,
POPs are completely out of our forecast as the upper low moves into
Arkansas. With the snow trending on the decrease, additional
accumulations tonight will be light.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
The current system will be moving away from the area Monday with a
surface ridge building across Texas. We should see plenty of
sunshine Monday afternoon with temperatures warming into the 40s.
High temperatures may be somewhat suppressed across the far
southwestern portion of the area with the snowfall that is falling
today near and just to the south.
A shortwave dropping south behind the main upper-level trough will
amplify and initially elongate the trough east-west from the
lower Mississippi Valley back toward the southwest U.S., but then
another low will develop in over New Mexico or southwest Texas,
close of, and then move east across north Texas. But this system
passage will move through without precipitation as there is very
little moisture with which to work. After that, the area remains
under the influence of northwest flow aloft and the weather over
the area will remain tranquil. One upper wave moving from the
Canadian prairies into the American Midwest Thursday will stay
far enough northeast to not bring any precipitation, but will help
to bring a front and cooler temperatures down the Plains. A
stronger wave develops over the northern Rockies late this week
and moved southeast toward the area next weekend which will be the
next chance of precipitation just beyond this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Will continue to see some MVFR and possibly some IFR conditions at
SPS/LAW for a while this evening with lower ceilings and
visibilities from fog/snow. Farther north mainly VFR conditions.
Lower ceilings will slowly erode Monday morning with VFR
conditions area-wide. Light north winds will shift to the west
and southwest Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 27 47 28 54 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 27 48 25 55 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 27 47 26 53 / 40 0 0 0
Gage OK 20 47 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 47 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 29 49 29 54 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ083>085-087>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30