Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/23/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
455 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 Forecast challenges deal with strong winds through Wednesday. Currently...cold front approaching from the west...currently located from Cody to Riverton to just east of Evanston this afternoon at 11AM on surface analysis. Radar showing area of snow showers just west of Rawlins...moving east. Winds have been slow to materialize...even in the wind prone areas. Right now in WYZ 110 (Arlington)...gusts in the upper 40s are being reported with 850/700mb Craig to Casper height gradients of 48 and 49 mtrs respectively. With the slow onset of winds...decided to delay onset of wind warnings outside the wind prone areas until 5PM this afternoon. This is when the front begins to push through the CWA and we get the downward motions behind the front. Also upgraded the watches we had out and started them at 8PM east of the Laramie Range and southern Panhandle. Snow squalls still look good as the front moves into Carbon and Albany Counties this afternoon. HRRR simulated radar showing pretty healthy line of snow showers pushing into eastern Carbon and Albany County towards 00Z. NAM12 Snow Squall Parameter up around 6-8 at this time as well. So evening shift will need to be on the outlook for these bands. Bora wind event behind the front for late tonight into Wednesday as wind turn northwesterly. GFS showing 50+ knots from 700mbs down to 850mbs from the Summit all the way into the Panhandle beginning after 03Z tonight. These strong winds continue through 18Z. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 High pressure continues to dominate the Southeast through the Great Lakes as a low pressure cell and it`s associated cold front digs to the southeast. Mostly sunny and windy conditions expected as we head into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region, along with work heights indicating the Craig to Casper gradients greater than 45 meters starting early Saturday and lasting throughout the day. Next round of weather is expected Saturday evening as a series of upper level troughs push through the region, giving the chance for some light snow, primarily east of LAR and along the Sierra Madres. Next chance for snow for southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle appears to be next Tuesday. Current model guidance has an area of low pressure setting up on the southeastern corner of Colorado, which will provide decent moisture from the south, wrap around snow, and upslope flow. Current POPs are around 25 to 47 across the CWA. However, will need to continually monitoring the tracking of this system and determine the likelihood of it`s positioning, which will greatly determine the system impacts across the Rockie Mountain West through the Great Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 Strong cold front about to push through KCYS in the next hour. Brief rainfall has changed to all snow with LIFR conditions for KRWL and KLAR. Expect LIFR to IFR conditions to be brief this evening and tonight with mainly a wind event through Wednesday for the high valleys and eastern high plains into western Nebraska. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Weather trends will be very tricky over the next 12 hours due to the brief nature of heavy snow showers, with some additional light snow possible later tonight. For now, kept VFR conditions prevailing with brief IFR/LIFR VIS due to locally heavy snow showers through 02z for mainly the Wyoming terminals. Expect strong winds to be the main threat, with gusts over 50 knots expected across most terminals beginning shortly and continuing through Wednesday morning. Winds may diminish a bit for KRWL and KLAR after 08z, but this should be brief. MVFR CIGS, or lower, will likely return across the eastern plains overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 349 AM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 Winds will be strong over the next few days as a strong cold front passes through the region today, finally exiting midday Wednesday. A High Wind Warning has been issued to cover the wind threat this front will bring. Humidities will be in the 20s during this period. Snow showers will accompany the front as well, but not expecting a wetting liquid. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the region Friday and Saturday - humidity will drop to near critical at this time, though winds will decrease as well. Another chance for winds and light precip again next week && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-108-109-113-115-118-119. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ101-102-107. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for WYZ106-110-116-117. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ110-112- 114. NE...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ002-095. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...AB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS 410 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 ...AVIATION section update... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 Midlevel flow is in the process of becoming SWly at midday, in response to a strong progressive trough digging into the northern Rockies. In response to the approaching trough, lee cyclogenesis will continue across the NE Colorado vicinity (down to 993 mb on the latest HRRR iterations) this afternoon. South to southwest winds will respond this afternoon, strongest across the eastern zones, with gusts to near 40 mph. Unseasonably mild afternoon temperatures will result, in the lower to mid 60s away from the dwindling snowpack. The initial cold frontal surge is expected this evening, as the surface cyclone treks eastward across Nebraska. Surface winds will shift abruptly NWly, and increase in strength. 12z NAM forecasts winds at 850 mb/2000 ft AGL near 60 mph tonight, but feel nocturnal timing/inversion issues will preclude full mixing potential. Still, gusts up to 50 mph are certainly plausible all night, especially on the higher terrain of the western zones. Opted to begin the high wind warning at 6 AM Wednesday, but this evening`s shift will need to reevaluate this potential, and monitor the nocturnal inversion. With all the mixing going on, temperatures tonight will again be well above normal for the time of year, in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Potent trough with a couple embedded shortwaves spreads over the central Plains Wednesday, accompanied by intense NW winds and much colder air. Kept all grids dry for all zones (pops < 15%). Intense NW winds are expected, with the strongest winds from 10 am through 3 pm Wednesday. Upgraded inherited high wind watch to a high wind warning in zones where confidence is greatest on reaching high wind criteria (sustained 40 mph, gusts 58 mph). Collaborated with neighboring offices regarding their wind headlines, but feel the highest damaging wind threat is along the northern extent of the US 83 corridor (Scott City to Garden City) during the late morning/midday hours. We are in the shortest days of the year with the least mixing, so expect winds to begin relaxing as soon as 4 pm. Models show strong cold/dry advection daylight Wednesday, with the atmosphere getting progressively colder and drier all day. With sunshine expected, allowed temperatures to struggle upward through the 30s. Wednesday night, it will be plenty cold, but not as cold as it could be. The core of the coldest arctic airmass will bypass SW KS to the east, and NW winds will remain elevated at 10-20 mph all night. Even with these factors working against radiational cooling, teens can be expected at many locations Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 A long stretch of dry weather is expected Thursday through Monday. SW KS will be sandwiched between a cold 524 dm closed low over Illinois Thursday, and expansive ridging across the Great Basin. The resultant strong NW flow through the depth of the troposphere will yield elevated NW winds again Thursday (stronger than NBM), but temperatures will be allowed to moderate with sunshine, NWly downslope, and very dry air. Christmas Day will be spectacular, as ridging expands onto the high plains, and afternoon temperatures warm to the upper 50s to near 60 with light SW winds. Get outside Christmas afternoon! 12z ECMWF suggests Saturday will remain unseasonably mild with near zonal flow aloft, followed by the next shortwave passing to the north, with an attendant cold front ushering in cooler temperatures Sunday. ECMWF is quite a bit colder than other guidance Sunday night/Monday morning with a 1030+ surface ridge over the central plains. Medium range models agree on the next strong closed low digging to the vicinity of Las Vegas by around Tuesday morning, with this system subsequently moving out onto the plains around December 30th. This storm will be strong, and produce impacts somewhere on the plains, but it is way too early to ascertain exact storm track or details. For now accepted NBM pops for next Tuesday. Stay tuned for this one. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 VFR conditions are expected at KDDC, KGCK, KHYS and KLBL. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected at the terminals from taf issuance through this evening then veering to the west and northwest after midnight. For the day Wednesday northwest winds gusting 45 to 55kts are expected. There is a threat of blowing dust and sub vfr cigs/vis from around 17z-21z for all but KHYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 39 18 45 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 28 35 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 29 37 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 27 36 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 30 36 18 41 / 10 10 0 0 P28 37 44 23 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>078. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
705 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 Based on the obs upstream northwest of Akron CO, have decided to update to increase sustained winds through 06z Wednesday. Gusts are already 35 to 45 mph in Lima CO/Grover CO, and should reach into portions of Yuma county in the next couple hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 212 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire region from 11 PM MST (Midnight CST) tonight to 5 PM MST (6 PM CST) Wednesday. Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow aloft over the region today as a shortwave trough entered the northern and central Rockies, pushing upper ridging to the east. At 2 PM MT this afternoon, a strong cold front associated with the disturbance was located over central Wyoming and Utah. Skies were mostly sunny across the Tri-State region, with south to southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. Temperatures ranged in the low 50s to low 60s. The main story of the short term forecast is high winds. A cold front is set to bring a taste of winter back to the region. The front enters the region from the northwest this evening, bringing an initial burst of strong winds overnight. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible. Additionally, this disturbance brings a slight chance of a rain/snow mix to the Nebraska-Kansas border region overnight. A tight pressure gradient persists on Wednesday, and northwest winds increase further through the morning as the mixing from winds aloft deepens. At this point, it appears wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph will occur across the region. With these winds comes a risk of blowing dust that will be possible across the majority of the area from the morning into the early afternoon hours. Those sensitive to air quality may need to take precautions if the blowing dust becomes dense enough to cause poor air quality. The winds should peak midday and gradually decline from mid afternoon through the evening. As far as temperatures go, expect lows in the upper teens to upper 20s tonight. Highs are forecast in the mid 20s to low 30s on Wednesday; however, with cooler air filtering into the region behind the front, temperatures may hit their peak in the morning before falling the remainder of the day. Otherwise, expect colder lows on Wednesday night, in the teens. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 The main points of interest for the extended period include gusty winds on Thursday, above normal temperatures for Christmas Day and an unsettled weather pattern starting this weekend and lasting through the remainder of the extended period. Northwesterly flow is expected to start the extended period as the trough moves off to the east. Gusty winds are expected (not as strong as the previous days winds), the winds should taper off as the evening goes on. A ridge then sets up over the plains on Christmas Day that will usher in dry and above normal temperatures. Dry weather will continue for the start of the weekend. The pattern then becomes more unsettled starting Sunday as a cold front associated with the development of cutoff low over the Great Lakes region moves through the area, which will result in a cooling trend. I am currently not expecting any precipitation with the system as available moisture is low, cant rule out a few sprinkles or flurries. Guidance then becomes more unclear with the development of the next system. This next system is forecasted to move onshore from the southwest Pacific coast. Once it gets on land guidance has a hard time latching on to how it will evolve. The GFS eventually has a closed low over the Tri-State area, whereas the ECMWF has the low forming further to our east over the Kansas City area. Ensembles are also hinting at breezy to gusty winds as well with the passage of the system. Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists with this system. It will continue to be monitored as it appears it may be our next chance at measurable precipitation. Temperatures at the start of the extended period are forecasted to start in the 40s and warm into the 50s for Christmas Day for a good majority of the CWA; a few locations may even hit 60 degrees. The above normal temperatures are expected to remain for the start of the weekend, then fall again with the passage of a cold front Sunday morning. High temperatures really wont change much after that for the latter portion of the extended as widespread 30s are expected. Lows in the 20s are expected for the first half of the period, before falling into the teens after the cold front on Sunday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 347 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 Vfr conditions are currently anticipated at KMCK and KGLD terminals through the TAF period. A cold front is expected to enter the region from the northwest tonight, abruptly shifting winds to the northwest. Included a mention of LLWS at both terminals after the initial passing of the front before surface winds increase. Damaging winds will develop behind the front at both terminals, persisting from late tonight through the day on Wednesday. Blowing dust also looks to be a problem in the morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, some cloud cover may develop overnight tonight with the front`s passing, with a low potential for some rain at KMCK. However, confidence was not high enough to include a mention of precipitation in the TAF at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...High Wind Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ090>092. NE...High Wind Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JBH LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...JBH
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Hanford CA
439 PM PST Tue Dec 22 2020 Updated Air Quality Issues section .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will keep the weather dry and stable through Christmas Day. In the San Joaquin Valley trapped low level moisture will allow for nighttime and morning patchy fog to develop. A low pressure system will move into the area on Friday night and Saturday bringing a chance of rain and mountain snow. A second weather maker will arrive later on Monday with another round of rain and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Another round of widespread fog and drizzle overnight last night with some clearing from the north as a mid level weather disturbance is moving through the region. HRRR is not giving us widespread fog tonight and we are a bit concerned about the mixing with the short wave. The fog will be redeveloping again tonight, but it will be patchy. Confidence is not high enough to issue a dense fog advisory at this time for tonight. Cold temperatures overnight will once again be below the freezing point in rural parts of the valley tonight. The fast moving trough will move east overnight with EPAC ridging slowly building back into the area on Wednesday. Surface high of around 1041mb will build into the Great Basin by Wednesday evening and easterly winds are forecast to increase across Kern county. The combination of low RH values and gusty winds will warrant "Elevated Fire Danger" conditions across parts of Kern county tomorrow afternoon and evening. The models have been advertising a fast moving front forecast to move across the CENCAL interior Friday night into Saturday morning. The system is weakening as it moves through and qpf is light associated with the front based on model data at this time. Snowfall amounts are too light for any type of winter weather statements for the Sierra. However since it is a holiday travel weekend, we are encouraging you to take chains and emergency kit if you decide to visit the Sierra this weekend for the holidays. Another system is right on its heels and will be moving in here early Monday. This system is a bit more robust with more QPF and lower snow levels. We will be watching this system as it gets closer to the time frame for potential statements for winter weather. The storm is forecast to move east of the area by next Tuesday with residual upslope clouds and even a few flurries across the Sierra above 4000 feet early Tuesday morning as the system moves out. Mid level ridging will build in behind the system late Tuesday and into Wednesday with dry conditions and cooler temps. && .AVIATION... IFR conditions in mist and haze in the San Joaquin Valley until 20z Wed. LIFR conditions in patchy dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley after 10z tonight through 18z Wed. Elsewhere...VFR conditions are expected above the fog and in the desert. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday, December 23rd, 2020, unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno, Kern, and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning unless registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. No burning for all in Fresno and Kern Counties. Further information is available at && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...JDB aviation....JDB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
844 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 ...HIGHLY IMPACTFUL HAZARDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Trends are evolving rapidly this evening. Confidence continues to increase for a very impactful event Wednesday and Wednesday night with strong, possibly damaging winds; heavy snow; and a dramatic temperature drop, leading to a flash freeze and rapidly deteriorating conditions in the afternoon. Some finer details are beginning to come into focus. A sharpening 500 mb trough axis will increase southerly flow in advance of it to in excess of 100 kts over Wisconsin by afternoon. Surface low pressure will respond accordingly, deepening from the low 990s to the 980s as it tries to become more neutrally tilted. Low level moisture will increase late tonight and should allow light rain to develop by mid morning across eastern Minnesota and snow across western Minnesota. By 12Z, the cold front should be just east of the MN/SD state line, and advance east to around I-35 by noon/18Z. Temperatures will plummet behind the front from the 30s to the teens and single digits. Precipitation will rapidly transition to snow, and as temperatures fall through the 20s, a flash freeze is also expected. Thus, travel will become extremely dangerous during the afternoon. One of the biggest things to come into focus is a narrow band of heavy snow along the 500 and 700 mb low tracks somewhere along I-35. ECMWF, GEM, GFS as of 18Z, and NAM/ARW/NMM/NAMnest/NSSL-WRF as of the new 00Z runs have shown this band very well. At MSP, the 18Z GEFS increased its QPF mean to 0.8" from 0.4" with the 12Z run, and 0.2" from the 06Z run. The trend is very clear, so have the forecast moving in that direction. If and when confidence increases more with where this band will set up, snowfall totals will need to be increased by another few inches in those locations. If not for running out of time with this update, probably could justify the 00Z guidance enough evidence to increase further right now. The current forecast has the highest totals of 5 to 9 inches forecast from Mankato to the Twin Cities and north along I-35. Finally, the wind will be nothing less than impressive. In the extreme CAA regime, very good mixing and an unstable boundary layer could bring 50+ kt wind gusts down to the surface. All forecast soundings from western Minnesota indicate 55-65 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. Looking at wind speed plots at 900 mb on a plethora of models show a bubble of 50-55 kt isotachs plunging southeast behind the strengthening surface low across western and southern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. This should be when the strongest winds occur. In addition, convective snow showers with a 15kft saturated DGZ should keep the light or moderate snow going until the atmosphere cools past the DGZ late Wednesday evening or overnight. Therefore, confidence is high enough blizzard conditions will occur across most areas west of I-35 (except maybe inside the core metro due to urban effects.) Upgraded the hazards to a Blizzard Warning from Lake Mille Lacs to Waseca and west, including the western Twin Cities suburbs, A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Blizzard Warning to the Wisconsin border. Hazards in Wisconsin were left alone for now due to lower confidence in precip transition and totals. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 There are many moving parts and still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast through Wednesday night. What is known with high confidence is that it will turn much colder, and it will be quite windy Wednesday into Thursday, with winds peaking Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The main uncertainty in the forecast is the amount of snow that will occur across the area. Although the model guidance is now in very good agreement on the overall development and evolution of the upper wave and surface low as it moves out of the Plains and through our area Wednesday into Wednesday night, there remain differences on the amount of precipitation and where the heaviest will occur. A blended forecast was used to account for the differences, with a bit of additional weight toward the deterministic ECMWF solution. This all resulted in an increase in forecast snow amounts across the area, with at least 1 to 3 inches across the entire area and some amounts of 4-6 inches north of Interstate 94. Differences in the guidance are due to subtle differences in how much of a TROWAL develops, the amount of moisture transport back into that TROWAL, and the strength and duration of low to mid level frontogenesis. Overall, the window of moderate to heavy precipitation is fairly short, which should keep things from getting out of hand, but precipitation amounts in excess of a half inch appear possible, particularly from central into east central Minnesota (similar to what the ECMWF and HRRR extension suggest). Given the amount of wind that we`ll see Wednesday into Wednesday night, there is the potential for significant blowing and drifting snow. If we had the amount of snow cover we often have in place at this time of year, there would be high confidence in blizzard conditions in west central Minnesota. However, with nothing in place the development of blizzard conditions hinges on the amount of falling/new snow, which as discussed above is still somewhat uncertain. Decided to go with a winter storm warning where there is the greatest confidence in wind and at least a few inches of snow, and put up a watch south/east of there, with an advisory south/east of there (as confidence in the juxtaposition of high winds and snow decrease going south/east). It is certainly possible that a portion of the area may eventually need a blizzard warning if sufficient new snow occurs for widespread near zero visibilities with blowing snow, so forecasts should continue to be monitored. For the watch area, it is likely that a portion will need a warning at some point, when there is greater confidence in a sufficient combination of falling snow, blowing snow, etc. Another concern Wednesday is the potential for flash freezing of road surfaces as much colder air works in behind the cold front given the possibility of some earlier rain and mixed precipitation. Needless to say, travel should be postponed or adjusted if possible given the adverse conditions that are expected. Conditions will improve from west to east Wednesday night, but fairly gusty winds will persist, so improvement may be a bit slow. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 The highlights in the long term are the cold temperatures and blustery winds on Thursday followed by a warming trend into the weekend and a return to split flow and dry conditions. With strong CAA in place and fresh snowfall on the ground temperatures will not rise much from Thursdays morning lows despite clearing skies progressing from west to east as Wednesdays winter storm moves off to the east. As the pressure gradient starts to weaken winds will relax some, but still be blustery Thursday with northwest winds 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH. This will lead to wind chills around -15F in our Wisconsin counties to as low as -35F in our far northwestern counties. Highs on Thursday will top out in the single digits above zero for most, with some locations in the northwestern CWA remaining slightly below zero. Wind chills Christmas Eve night will still be well below zero with readings of -15 to -25F, but the winds will continue to relax overnight. Christmas morning will be a few degrees colder in our eastern forecast area and a couple degrees warmer in the western CWA as the heart of the arctic air slides off to the east and moderating temperatures move in from the west. The strong northerly flow will become more northwesterly on Friday and temperatures will moderate some as weak ridging approaches from the west. Christmas Day will see sunny skies and high temperatures will be in the teens in west central Wisconsin and mainly in the 20s for the Minnesota portion of the forecast area. The warm up continues into the weekend with weak ridging and sunny skies on Saturday getting back to a little above average in the 20s to low 30s. Late in the weekend a system will take shape somewhere around the Mid Mississippi Valley, but it looks like this one will mostly miss us to the south and east, perhaps scraping the far southern and eastern CWA with a bit of snow. A cold front drops through on Sunday and lowers temperatures again, but nothing too extreme for this time of year. Highs will fall back into the teens and 20s with lows in the mainly in the single digits above zero, but some single digit below zero readings in our northern areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 844 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 VFR through most of the night, then low level moisture rapidly increases early Wednesday morning ahead of the front, leading to drizzle or light rain. The sharp arctic cold front will swing through during the morning from west to east, leading to plunging temperatures and intense northwest winds, likely gusting to 50 kts across western Minnesota by afternoon. Blizzard conditions are expected there with falling snow likely to continue. Flash freeze across eastern MN and far western WI in the hour following the transition to snow during the early afternoon, then steady snow, possibly heavy, and winds increase also leading to blowing snow in those areas. KMSP...Rain will develop early Wednesday morning, then transition very rapidly to snow around 19Z as temperatures plummet. Confidence is increasing in a band of heavy snow will develop in the afternoon, followed by blowing snow and the potential for 45-50 kt gusts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...Cold. MVFR expected. Wind NW 15-25 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind W around 10 kts becoming SW. Sat...VFR. Wind light/variable. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Blizzard Warning from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Faribault-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs- Nicollet-Sherburne-Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for Benton-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Morrison-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for Anoka-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Ramsey-Rice-Scott- Washington. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for Freeborn-Goodhue-Steele. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ UPDATE...Borghoff SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CEO AVIATION...Borghoff