Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/22/20


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
514 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Deep 999mb surface low located over northeast WI this afternoon. Strong pressure gradient on the backside of this low was producing gusty west/northwest winds across our area with gusts as high as 35 to 45 mph in the more open wind-prone areas of northeast IA and southeast MN. Clouds were also plentiful with a few rain/snow showers mainly along/north of I-94. Otherwise, temperatures as of 1 pm were in the 30s to lower 40s...not bad for nearing the end of December! This deep low will continue to pull east into the Great Lakes region this evening as high pressure builds in from the Plains. As a result, look for the winds to slacken considerably with skies clearing from west to east overnight. Overnight low temperatures will be in the teens to lower 20s under mostly clear skies by dawn. Mid/high level clouds expected to increase through the day Tuesday in warm air advection ahead of storm system moving through the Northern Plains. Plan on winds increasing out of the south as well, gust 30-35 mph over the open wind-prone areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. Highs are expected to top off well into the 30s, maybe even a few lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Better consensus (finally) has been reached on a more likely outcome for the storm system moving through the region Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Very good agreement exists in the 21.12Z deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and the latest RAP runs that an impressive moisture tongue surges northward into the area on 50-60kt south winds in the 925-850mb layer Tuesday night after midnight. Timing and placement are all consistent that this wind flow is isentropically lifting /290K surface/ with moisture transport convergence and light precipitation signals. This moister surge arrives after midnight and deepens the surface-based saturated layer to nearly 2km agl. This spreads across WI by sunrise and areas of drizzle should result. The only area subject to freezing drizzle would appear to be north of I-94, and really north of Highway 29 in northcentral WI, and for a few hours. The strong southerly flow warms temperatures and removes any icing threat. This is a rather large change to the Tuesday night forecast. All of the above occurs in the warm sector of a strong cyclone shifting out of the Dakotas and into northwest WI by Wednesday morning...with a very cold front just east of Interstate 35. There are still details on the upper trough energy and thus the surface cyclone position and depth. But, the cold front will shift through Wednesday and begin cold advection in most of the model guidance...and a conversion to snow. At this time, it looks like light snow will continue through Wednesday night with amounts generally below 2" - highest north of I-94. This agrees well with ensemble families and plumes as well - but of course outliers exist. The dry slot could be more of a player causing less precipitation Wednesday night. The opposite would be true /more snow/ of the wrap-around precipitation from the cyclone to the north...and this is where uncertainty remains. Overall, the biggest impacts are cold and wind from this system, and snow looks to be of minor impact. We have this mentioned well. Thursday through Monday... Thursday and Friday are the coldest days but appear precipitation free. Winds on Thursday are likely to gust 20-30 mph keeping wind chills colder than -5 /south/ to -15F /north/ across the local area. There may be a need for a Wind Chill Advisory Wednesday night into Thursday morning with borderline -20F values in southeast MN and northcentral WI. Temperatures then get back normal by Saturday as large scale ridge building occurs over the CONUS. The next weather may occur late Sunday and into Monday but storm track probabilities are to && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 MVFR ceilings will persist for a couple more hours this evening before the stratus deck fully moves off to the east. Then VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period with neither visibility nor weather impacts expected. The main concerns during this period are the winds. Gusty conditions will briefly subside tonight. Winds will switch and be from the south by early tomorrow morning with gusts picking back up again for the day. Closer to late afternoon and evening, LLWS threat increases. Speeds nearing 60 knots from the south are possible by Tuesday evening around 1500 ft AGL at KRST and 2000 ft AGL at KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...Baumgardt AVIATION...Peters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
753 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 751 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 After further consultation/incoming guidance, have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for the entire CWA for late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Stronger signal for gusts to reach up to 60 to 65 mph during the Watch period. Have also continued a mention of potential blowing dust cropping up across the CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a trough across the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge moving into the northern and central Rockies. This pattern placed the region under northwest flow. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure drifted across the area. At 2 PM MST, light west winds were shifting to the southwest, with temperatures mainly in the 50s. The upper ridge pushes from the Rockies into the Plains tonight, with mostly clear skies prevailing and temperatures ranging from the upper teens near Kit Carson, Colorado to the low 30s near Hill City, Kansas. Light winds from the southwest persist. Temperatures peak in the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. The upper flow turns to the southwest on the backside of the ridge as a disturbance pushes from the Pacific Northwest towards the High Plains. With this wave comes a strong cold front which is pegged to move through the region Tuesday night. There is a slight chance of light snow behind the front, but confidence in occurrence is low at this point. The forecast currently calls for under a half inch of snow east of Highway 25. More importantly, this cold front looks to bring strong winds and a return to colder temperatures. As the front pushes through Tuesday evening, winds will abruptly turn to the northwest, increase, and continue through the night. Gusts as high as 50 mph will be possible. Low temperatures range in the mid teens to mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 112 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 The main points of interest for the extended period include gusty winds on Wednesday, dry weather for Christmas and another potential chance for precipitation this weekend. The start of the extended period will feature a neutral tilted trough over the plains. A tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty to windy conditions that should subside during the afternoon to evening hours as the trough moves off to the east. I have upped the winds a little bit as it appears the timing of the passage of the trough has slowed a bit. Currently, not expecting any precipitation as the Tri-State area will be in the dry slot of the storm system. Cooler temperatures are expected throughout the day as CAA enters the plains. The trough should exit the area Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. As this occurs ridging will set up leading to average to above average temperatures and dry conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Heading into the weekend the ridge breaks down as the next system takes shape over the Pacific Ocean; which leads to zonal flow over the plains. Another cold front associated with a cutoff low moves into the area Sunday morning, which may bring some light rain/snow to the CWA. Currently, my confidence in precipitation is low as not all guidance is picking up on this occurring. Due to my low confidence, I will leave below 15 POPS in my grids but will continue watch for any changes. Weak ridging then sets up for the start of the new work week, ahead of a potentially stronger system. Considerable uncertainty still exists with this system with guidance, so it will continue to be monitored. Temperatures for the extended period will start significantly cooler than the previous days as highs for Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 30s. Lows will fall into the lower teens Wednesday night into Thursday morning as wind chill values are currently forecasted to approach zero. Christmas Eve day will feature slightly warmer temperatures in the 40s. Christmas Day and into the weekend highs will be widespread in the 50s and maybe approaching 60 in a few spots. Another cold front as mentioned above will move through on Sunday dropping the highs for the latter portion of the forecast period back down into the 30s and 40s for highs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 335 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK terminals. Light southwest winds prevail through the overnight hours and Tuesday morning, then increase during the afternoon. KMCK is anticipated to see LLWS in the 10z to 17z timeframe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JBH LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...JBH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
936 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Quiet weather is on tap through Tuesday night, as an area of high pressure moves east across the Mississippi Valley. By mid week, a strong storm system will bring rain to central Illinois, changing over to snow before it ends. While snowfall amounts will be minimal, the coldest air of the season will follow this system, with wind chills falling below zero for Christmas Eve and early Christmas Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 A strong northwesterly low level jet will continue to mix to the surface this evening creating wind gusts of 30-35 mph, especially north of I-70. The pocket of intense winds will shift east of our CWA between midnight and 2 am, allowing sustained NW winds to gradually drop into the 10-15 mph range. By sunrise, winds are expected to diminish to 5-8 mph in most areas. Cloud cover has been confined to along and north of I-74, and those clouds have shifted east to cover Bloomington to Danville. By midnight, skies should become clear across the entire area. Steady cold air advection the rest of the night will cause low temps to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s, despite most areas in the low 40s at 9 pm. The main update this evening was to increase the winds through 08z/2am. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast database appeared on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 220 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Main upper wave has shifted into Indiana early this afternoon, though a circulation in northern Wisconsin continues to push an area of lower clouds south into northern Illinois. Humidity time- height plots favor a southern extent roughly along I-74 late afternoon and early evening, before lifting northeast. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through Tuesday, as a surface ridge axis drifts east. Temperatures have reached the low to mid 50s in much of the forecast area this afternoon. While not quite as mild on Tuesday, highs in the mid to upper 40s appear likely. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 220 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Main highlight during this period remains with the strong mid week storm system, and subsequent blast of cold air. Upper level trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig as it moves into the Plains, drawing a cold air mass southward. Morning synoptic models are in decent agreement with the surface low placement over Minnesota by early Wednesday morning, with the cold front sweeping through in the late afternoon or early evening. Main differences are with the precipitation amounts when it comes to any potential snow accumulation. Daytime precip remains all rain, with a mix beginning around sunset west of the Illinois River. However, the GFS and the NAM to a lesser extent has much of the precip out in the evening before a changeover occurs in eastern Illinois, while the international models dry out areas west of I-55 and keep precip going in the east. Overall trend has been for a diminished potential for decent accumulations, and will only mention a few tenths of accumulation from about I-55 east. Lobe of 850 mb temperatures drops down to around -17C over our area by midday Thursday, with the GFS and Canadian models suggesting potential for colder than -23C by midnight. Raw 2 meter temperatures off the GFS appear unreasonably cold for the lack of snow cover, but the MOS guidance appears closer to reality. Highs on Thursday may struggle to reach 20 northwest of the Illinois River with 20s elsewhere, and the pressure gradient stays up enough to allow wind chills to fall below zero by early Christmas morning. While the upper level pattern quickly flattens early this weekend, another storm system is expected to develop over the central Plains and quickly move southeast. GFS is most robust with this development and has widespread precipitation over our area by midday Sunday, while the European model draws most of its moisture up into our area as the system exits. Will not make any changes from the model blends at this time, which generally go with silent 20 PoP`s for Sunday and Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Main forecast concern remains the strong W-NW low level winds. Gusts will continue this evening in the 25-30KT range before diminishing after midnight. HRRR shows a secondary push of strong gusts rotating through at least our northern terminals this evening. VFR conditions will prevail. An area of ceilings around 6,000 feet will affect the KPIA-KCMI corridor this evening, before moving out after 06Z. Little to no cloud cover is expected the remainder of the 00Z TAF period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM EST MON DEC 21 2020 Latest RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery show a shortwave trough with a closed surface low of about 999mb moving east-southeast across northern WI. This is a quick-moving Clipper system as the low will be over lower Michigan by tonight. As the shortwave moves across WI, it will continue to lose the fgen that it had earlier this morning, which will cause the intensity of the snow to lighten up and turn into more of a light snow thanks to a weak inversion at about 3kft and the system losing shear. Wind flow will turn more northerly behind the shortwave but will not be supportive enough for steady lake-enhancement. At best, there will be minimal lake-enhancement off Lake Superior in the northerly wind belts, mainly in the higher terrain with 850mb temps around -6 C. As of now, snow totals look generally good from the overnight shift but may bump a few areas up because had a couple reports of around 3 inches along the WI border. Still not really expecting much east of Marquette with light accumulations at best but will tweak amounts slightly in case some areas overachieve. There have been some areas of patchy freezing drizzle that have been reported but this shouldn`t last long with maybe a thin glaze of ice accumulation is possible. Made some changes to the PoPs over the east since some light snow is making it earlier than anticipated Snow will wind down by the evening hours but will linger over the northwest wind belts with flurries but nothing major as flow will continue to weaken and cut off any remaining LES by early Tuesday morning. If you are hoping that skies clear enough to see the conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter in the southwest sky, I don`t have the news you are looking for. Skies look to remain cloudy across Upper Michigan through the overnight hours and any partial clearing that does occur won`t happen until after sunrise Tuesday morning. A brief area of high pressure will move towards Upper Michigan Tuesday morning and bring a period of dry weather for most of the day before the next system approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday. As for temperatures, didn`t tweak much for today from previous fcst. Did make a few changes for lows tonight as cloud cover will be pretty persistent and not dropping very much with lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Highs for Tuesday will still be above average for this time of year with highs mainly in the 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 442 PM EST MON DEC 21 2020 Medium range models indicate that the split flow pattern that has led to below normal snowfall since the beginning of Nov will generally continue through the end of December. The northern branch jet stream will remain dominant, especially so in the mid to late week period when the pattern amplifies across North America. This amplification will feature a mid-level ridge building northward thru western Canada which will force a deepening trough downstream into the central U.S. on Wed. The leading shortwave with this amplifying trough is expected to spin up a deepening sfc low over the Northern Plains Tue afternoon which models have tracking ne into either western Lake Superior or the west half of the U.P. on Wed and then into Ontario on Thu reaching James Bay Thu evening. WAA ahead of this low will bring the potential for widespread mixed pcpn on Wed into Wed evening, with the prospect of moderate lake effect snow behind the system Wed night into Christmas Day for the north- northwest wind snow belts of Lake Superior as Arctic air (850 mb temps of -20C to - 25C) floods the region. In addition to the n-nw wind LES, temperatures will also trend below normal for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with min temps falling into the single digits over the west half of the U.P. Wed night and into the single digits across the U.P. on Christmas morning. Highs Christmas Eve will only be in the 10 to 15F range west half to upper teens east half with wind chill values well blo zero across much of the area. Despite the pattern amplification, models continue to show the pattern remaining progressive as shortwaves moving off the ne Pacific will cut thru the western ridge. In addition, after the brief trend toward consolidation of the flow mid to late week under northern stream amplification, split flow develops again over the weekend into the following week. So, we`re probably looking at a 2 day shot of Arctic air (Thu/Fri), followed by some warming over the weekend as Pacific air again begins to spread downstream across the U.S. Beginning Tue night, WAA/isentropic ascent spreads eastward into the area ahead of the approaching storm system over the Northern Plains. Models indicate much of this largely isentropic ascent driven pcpn will stay mostly north of the fcst area, deeper into colder air where saturation is more likely to occur. However, A dusting of light snow could brush the ne half of the fcst area. Tightening pres gradient ahead of the sfc low will result in south winds 15 to 25 mph with some gusts at or above 30 mph for some locations along Lake Superior in downsloping southerly flow. Increased mixing from winds will also keep temps from falling much...expect mins in the 25 to 30F range. On Wed, models seem to be coming around to the GFS solution of the last few days of a deepening sfc low tracking through the Upper Great Lakes, although there is uncertainty on the exact track. The 12Z GFS and NAM remain farther west with the low track, taking it across western Lake Superior, while the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian have the low tracking over the western U.P. The 12Z UKMET and ECMWF has a track closer to the central U.P. Given the uncertainty, the end result will be a period of widespread mixed pcpn across the U.P. Wed into Wed evening with the better chance of accumulating synoptic snow west. Models now in pretty good agreement with CAA and Arctic air moving in behind the system`s cold fropa Wed evening west and overnight into Thu morning east. With 850 mb temps of -20 to -25C and the potential for some enhancement in comma head/deformation of closed low, will almost certainly need a WSW headline at some point for the western counties Wed night/early Thu for moderate to possibly heavy snow, blowing snow and colder wind chills. Flow doesn`t really become onshore for eastern counties until Thu, but northwest wind Lake Superior snowbelts for entire U.P. will probably see moderate snow and blowing snow Thu into Thu night and wind chills will likely lower blo zero (likely in double digits west half). LES will begin tapering off from west to east during the day on Friday as winds back from nw to w and large scale flow becomes more anticyclonic. Further moderation of the air mass and weak ridging should generally bring an end to LES this weekend, except for perhaps some lingering scattered light LES east along the shoreline in Sat morning. Temps should rebound closer to normal this weekend. Models more uncertain out to early next week with phasing of system developing over the mid-Mississippi Valley and tracking through the Lower Great Lakes, but any potential impacts for our area look to be minor at this point. There will likely be a brief shot of colder air and another round of light LES for early next week, before ridging and associated drier and slightly warmer weather takes hold for mid next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 730 PM EST MON DEC 21 2020 IFR conditions will prevail this evening at IWD and SAW where light snow continues where upslope northerly flow and abundant low level moisture prevail. The northerly winds will not as favorable for lower cigs at CMX. As the weak low pressure system departs, expect improvement to MVFR overnight. However, confidence in the timing is low. Cigs should lift to VFR as winds become southerly Tuesday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 350 PM EST MON DEC 21 2020 As this clipper moves towards Lower Michigan, winds will back towards the north this evening and overnight. Winds will generally be between 20-25 kts with some gusts to 30 kts over the west half, then winds will subside a bit to 15-20 kts as a weak area of high pressure moves in Tuesday. Next area of low pressure will approach the Upper Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday and this will turn the winds more out of the south and increase to gales between 35-40 kts over the east half of the lake. Have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch to highlight that. As the low progresses eastward, winds will turn back to the northwest with gales to 35 kts Thursday morning through early Friday. Freezing spray, maybe some heavy, is possible Wednesday into Thursday with much colder air filling in behind low pressure. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for LSZ266-267. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for LSZ264-265. Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JH/JV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
140 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 .SHORT TERM (Tonight - Thursday)... We`ve seen quite a bit of warming across the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain with temperatures climbing into the 50s in Burley and Pocatello. Not everyone is seeing these warmer temps however as the Upper Snake Plain and eastern Highlands remain on the chillier side in the lower 40s. Southerly winds out ahead of an approaching front could allow for additional warming over the next few hours bringing daytime highs close to record values. These warmer temps will be very short- lived however as the aforementioned front will push through the region tomorrow bringing some light snow, gusty winds and much colder temperatures for the remainder of the week. Not much has changed with the forecast thinking for tomorrow, as hi- res models show the front nearing the Central Mountains during the overnight hours and bring it through the Snake Plain roughly around, perhaps just before, daybreak Tuesday. Best chance for light snow accumulations will be across the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern Highlands where 1-4 inches will be possible. Highest totals will be across the highest terrain, while in the Snake Plain generally less than an inch. Most recent runs of the hi- res NAM and HRRR have been trending towards a more broken line of moderate snow as it nears the Snake Plain so it`s possible our snow may be more scattered in nature as it moves through the Snake Plain. Regardless, snowfall rates might be in the 0.5-1" per/hr range over the short duration snow event. An additional concern will be the gusty winds associated with the frontal passage. Seems likely that wind advisory criteria will be met for about a 6-9 hr window tomorrow so went ahead and issued a wind advisory for much of the Snake Plain, eastern Magic Valley and Arco Desert given the likelihood of gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Given the gusty winds, blowing snow will be a concern as well, mainly across the higher terrain where more snow (and snowpack) will be present. Winds will gradually diminish by Tuesday night with colder air settling in over the region as we head towards the Christmas holiday. Our area looks dry, but cold, with highs below freezing Wednesday with lows in the single digits to well below zero in the normally colder spots. McKaughan .LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)... Will have dry conditions under upper level ridge Thursday and Friday with temperatures near seasonal normals with generally good travel conditions expected Christmas Eve and Christmas day. A Pacific trof and associated cold front may return snow to the central mountains Friday night with a chance for widespread light snow on Saturday and Saturday night with light accumulations of 1 to 4 inches in the mountains and under an inch in the Snake Plain for early projections. Fairly low confidence on amounts right now. Models diverge Sunday and Monday with the European having a much wetter solution than the GFS which is dry. For now have light mainly eastern highland snow in for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be right around late December normal through the entire extended period with highs in the 20s mountains and upper 20s to mid 30s in the Snake Plain. GK && .AVIATION... Low ceilings continuing at DIJ this afternoon with MVFR at IDA occasionally. Should improve later this afternoon. Other sites maintain VFR conditions. Main impact will be very strong cold front moving through Idaho overnight and Tuesday morning. Should be a burst of snow with the front more prominently at SUN and DIJ and drop visibility to 3 miles at 11Z at SUN and to 2 miles at 14Z at DIJ. Kept visibility 4 miles or greater at BYi, PIH and IDA but increased wind speeds to sustained 25 to 35 knots at BYi, PIH and IDA by 14Z. Went with 15 to 20 knots at SUN and DIJ. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ051>055. && $$