Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/28/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
835 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 .UPDATE... A quick update to the overnight forecast package to add in mention of patchy fog and freezing fog. Did massage PoPs a bit to show a smoother transition of precipitation over the eastern plains in the 11pm to 2am timeframe. Where and when fog/freezing fog develops will remain the most uncertain part of the forecast into Saturday morning. The latest hi-res models do seem to be initializing better with the last couple of runs, depicting precipitation within a wrap-around section over central portions of the state this hour, not making it as far north as earlier runs. These hi-res solutions do hint that snow west of the Rio Grande will come to an end just between midnight to 2am, so Winter Weather Advisories there may be cancelled early. Latest zones forecast package is out. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...448 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE A wintry mix of precipitation continues over central NM and the Rio Grande Valley from KGNT to KSXU and from KONM to KSKX. Snow at this hour is still limited to western TAF locations and over the mountains, but temperatures and snow levels are already falling and should fall to valley floors by 0030Z to 0130Z. TAFs at KABQ-KAEG-KSAF reflect this transition from -rasn to -sn in the next hour with vis restrictions becoming more common thereafter until precipitation stops during the 09Z-12Z timeframe. Afterward, precipitation shifts more over eastern NM as the core of the low moves eastward. The most uncertain part of the forecast is the development of IFR/LIFR cigs and fzfg once precipitation ends. TAF amds for fg/fzfg throughout the night will be likely, notably for KGUP and KLVS. Lastly, the east canyon winds through KABQ and KSAF are still expected to subside over the next 2 to 4 hours. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will continue to track eastward across New Mexico tonight and Saturday, and light precipitation will spread into central and eastern portions of the state. Highest additional accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected along the central mountain chain above 7,500 feet with lesser amounts expected for lower elevations. Another cold front early Sunday will result in gusty northerly winds across eastern New Mexico. Temperatures will gradually warm Sunday and Monday under quieter weather conditions. However, a highly unsettled weather pattern takes shape by mid-week which may result in more mountain snow and colder temperatures for all. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... The wintry storm system isn`t going to be very well behaved tonight and Saturday before it exits. Looks as if the center may pass between Socorro and T-or-C which is apparently farther south than previously anticipated. Would not be surprised to see it go even farther south based on the mid/high level water vapor imagery indicating high pressure building over the northern Rockies and plains. It`s also slower moving, with a good deal of wrap around precipitation depicted, possibly impacting the Santa Fe and Albuquerque areas, with the HRRR indicating the greater snow amounts over western Valencia county overnight. Hoisted a winter weather advisory for both of these zones as the east wind tapers off and becomes northerly this evening. As precipitation migrates into the plains, models point toward southern Union, portions of Quay, Curry, De Baca and Guadalupe counties being impacted with 1-3 inches although the HRRR and NAM12 indicate southern Union county would be the focus area. Therefore the winter weather advisory was also expanded into most of these areas with snow commencing later tonight and persisting into Saturday morning. As well, pops have been increased over eastern NM for Saturday. Interesting to note, and not sure if this is indicative of a monkey wrench but an area of 4000- 6000 ft ceilings has been expanding during the day over southeast NM and into far southeast Lincoln county as well as closing in on Roswell attm. Overall forecast storm total snow amounts may be on the light side, so look for updates. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be near to below normal. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A strong backdoor cold front will surge through eastern NM early Sunday morning and push westward to the Continental Divide by early afternoon. A strengthening surface pressure gradient along the front plus increased 700mb winds will result in gusty northerly winds across the eastern plains - particularly near the NM/TX/OK borders. Guidance continues to increase wind speeds in this area, and brief Wind Advisory speeds may be possible in the Clayton area. Another east canyon wind in central valleys also appears likely by mid-day Sunday, but it only expected to be modest with gusts near 20 to 25 mph. Otherwise, northwest flow on Sunday will lead to rising temperatures for most with the exception being across the northeast behind the front. Northwest flow aloft continues on Monday, but a highly amplified pattern will start to set up over the CONUS. At least one more quiet day is expected for the Land of Enchantment on Monday under northwest flow although pressure heights do begin to fall in response to the amplifying pattern. Thus, temperatures do fall a few degrees for most across central and western NM while a lee-side low will allow temperatures to warm several degrees across the northeast. What follows after Monday is a complex pattern with little forecast confidence at this time. Operational models indicate a strong storm system from the Gulf of Alaska diving southward into the central Rockies on Tuesday which seems slightly faster than models were portraying 24 hours ago. Details on the low`s track and potential impacts to the area are fuzzy at best. The latest run of the ECMWF has the low diving straight southward through the state. The GFS, and to some extent the Canadian, show the low clipping northeastern NM Wednesday with another low right behind it on Thursday. Unfortunately, ensembles as well as little model run-to-run consistency don`t offer much guidance in any solution at the moment. The one thing that has seemed to be consistent is that regardless of the details, moisture does look to be limited for widespread/heavy precipitation. Kept PoPs next week fairly close to the NBM with meager chances mostly across the northern half of the CWA. The bigger impact with this amplified pattern will more than likely be much colder temperatures. Confidence is much higher that temperatures will drop to well below normal Wednesday through Friday. Stay tuned. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper low to move slowly over central New Mexico during the next 24 hours bringing small to moderate amounts of accumulating snow to much of the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico as well as portions of the valleys and plains. Cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend and much of next week are forecast. Widespread poor ventilation over much of the region for the next 7 days, and especially Saturday and Monday. Sunday and Monday appear dry but very unsettled and colder than normal weather is possible thereafter. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MST Saturday for the following zones... NMZ204-206-208. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Saturday for the following zones... NMZ215-218-219-229-233>235-237. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Saturday for the following zones... NMZ207-211-212-214-221>224-226-241. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
918 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low will move along the Downeast coast overnight. A cold front will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. Strong low pressure will approach from the southwest later Monday then track well west of the area Tuesday. An occluded front will cross the region later Tuesday. Low pressure will remain northwest of the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 9:18 PM Update: Models did not do a great job with the showers that have blossomed across the southern half of the FA this evening. The latest 01Z HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on the current coverage of the showers. Observations have indicated a few spots that have picked up from 0.01-0.05" during the past 2 hours. Made some adjustments to increase the PoPs and QPF across southern portions of the FA. Drizzle has been observed here at the WFO in Caribou this evening, and based on earlier reports and with continued snow melt there will likely be some fog the remainder of the night. Previous discussion: Weak low pressure will move along the Downeast coast tonight with a chance of rain showers. Weak high pressure will cross the remainder of the region, with lingering low level moisture supporting mostly cloudy skies. An approaching cold front and upper level disturbance could also bring isolated/scattered snow showers to northern areas late. Will also have patchy fog across the region tonight through early Saturday. The upper level disturbance and cold front cross the region Saturday with scattered rain/snow showers across the north and mountains. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies with still isolated/scattered showers in the morning. Partly sunny skies are then expected Downeast during the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 30s north, to the mid 40s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Short wave moves east Saturday night. The exiting system could produce a few snow showers across the north during the evening followed by partial clearing late. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 20s north and central areas to near 30 toward the coast. Surface and upper ridge builds in on Sunday with fair weather and unseasonably mild temperatures. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 30s to near 40 north and low to mid 40s Downeast. Clouds increase Sunday night in advance of low pressure tracking up from the southwest. Upper level energy moves northeast from the southwestern states combining with upper level energy moving out of the Great Lakes region on Monday. This results in deep surface low developing to our southwest during Monday. This will result in thickening clouds early Monday with rain developing from west to east Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday well above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread rain event will affect the region Monday night into Tuesday. A and warm deep layered southerly flow is expected during that time frame with good moisture transport expected. Noted that the latest WPC day 4-5 QPF outlook is indicating the potential for 3+ inch rainfall for portions of central and Downeast areas of our CWA. Still a few days out, but this obviously has the potential to be significant rainfall event for much of our region. Another factor will be the potential for gusty south winds across Downeast areas with 925MB winds of 50 kt expected Monday evening. The steadier rain begins to taper to showers later Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Cooler weather with the chance for rain/snow showers return for late week. Temperatures will be well above normal on Tuesday and continued above normal on Wednesday. Expect temperatures by the end of next week to be near normal Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions early tonight will lower to IFR/LIFR levels overnight, although confidence on the lower ceilings is highest across the far north at KFVE. Isolated snow showers are possible across northern areas later tonight. Scattered rain showers are expected Downeast. Fog is likely across the entire region tonight through early Saturday. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region early Saturday. VFR/MVFR conditions are then expected Saturday afternoon. Scattered rain/snow showers are expected across the north and mountains Saturday. Isolated/scattered showers are possible Downeast early Saturday. SHORT TERM: Sat Night...MVFR possible in evening snow showers mainly north, otherwise VFR. SW Wind 5 to 10 kt. Sun-Sun Night...VFR. SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Mon...VFR, then possible MVFR/IFR in developing rain form W-E. Mon night-Tue...Widespread IFR/LIFR in locally heavy rainfall. Gusty S wind. Tue-night...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. Wed-Thu..VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain showers and patchy fog tonight through early Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels Sat night thru Sun Night, then increase to SCA levels Mon. Gale conditions are possible Mon night with seas building to 10-15 ft. SCA conditions are likely on Tue. && .CLIMATE... We are forecasting a high of 54F on Tuesday, December 1st in Caribou. The record high for December 1st is 48F, set in 1991. The last time we observed a high of 54F or warmer during the month of December was on December 14, 2010, when the high was 57F. The all-time record high for the month of December is 58F, set on December 12, 1950. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Norcross/Duda Marine...CB/Norcross/Duda Climate...CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
929 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 ...PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT... .UPDATE... A weak front was across nearly stationary over southeast GA but is expected to slowly shift south through Saturday morning. Shower activity has diminished considerable since the afternoon hours as the airmass has stabilized. With light winds, seasonably high PWAT values of about 1.5 inches, and subsequent dewpoints in the mid- upper 60s, low clouds and some developing fog are expected for a good portion of the night so have increased coverage with the evening update. Some dense fog is expected at times. Still tracking a disturbance upstream of the region over AL and the FL panhandle, producing areas to widespread shower activity and isolated embedded thunderstorms. This activity expected to push into the forecast area by about 4 AM or so. Have bumped up POPs a bit for early Saturday for this system based on radar trends and HRRR model guidance. No change made to the low temps in the lower to mid 60s tonight with skies becoming mostly cloudy after midnight for most areas. && .MARINE... Current forecast was on tack with light winds and seas at or below 4 ft rest of tonight. Introduced some patchy fog for the nearshore waters and included a marine weather statement for the fog. It is possible fog may disperse a bit after about 4 or 5 AM Saturday as a cold frontal boundary pushes into the region. && .PREV DISCUSSION [656 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Scattered low-top showers have broken out this afternoon across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley as a quasi-stationary front slowly advances southward across southern GA. Meager instability and a strong mid-level inversion will effectively limit any chance for thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The front will continue to drift south tonight as high pressure over central Florida breaks down amd builds into the Ohio River Valley. After a brief break in shower activity this evening, another round is expected overnight across southeastern GA. An upper trough axis will pivot across the Mid Atlantic states and overtop the stationary front tonight, providing sufficient lift through early Saturday. Isolated areas of inland southeast Georgia could receive up to an 1" of rain by sunrise on Saturday. In addition to the rain overnight, patchy fog will likely develop along the nearly stalled frontal zone but away from the shower activity. Best chances for fog development will be inland northeast Florida west of the I-95 corridor. Locally dense fog will be possible in area through Saturday morning. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The quasi-stationary front will make more southward progress on Saturday as upper trough axis pivots into the western Atlantic and surface high pressure builds to the northwest. Scant instability and considerable cloudiness on Saturday should limit potential for widespread shower activity along the frontal zone. An upper cutoff low over west texas will spawn a surface cyclone in the northwestern GOMEX Sunday. This will lift the quasi-stationary frontal zone northward as a warm front, warm-sectoring the area. Mass response from deepening surface low to the west will increase bulk and low- level shear parameters, however very weak instability will be a limiting factor. If enough instability is generated and convection can initiate successfully, strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Run-to-run model consistency has fallen of a bit regarding the timing of the attendant cold front which now looks to pass through Monday morning/afternoon rater than late Sunday/early Monday. Temps will remain above average through the weekend. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... Potent cold front will track eastward across the region on Monday, bringing drier air, breezy conditions, and significant drop in temperatures through early next week. As the front passes through Monday a squall line of showers and t- storms will precede it. Temperatures will drop substantially from Monday to Tuesday with highs on Tuesday forecast to stay in the 50s. Lows on Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30s across southeast Georgia and Suwanee Valley while the upper 30s/low 40s are likely across along the coast and north-central Florida. As the post-frontal northerly breezes lighten morning lows will drop further Wednesday morning with readings at or below freezing inland and to the upper 30s along the coast. Temps will gradually rebound through the end of the week as surface high shifts offshore and another low pressure system and reinforcing cold front develops to our west. Rain chances will increase with the approach of the late week cold front. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] A weak cold front will sag southward over the area late tonight and early Saturday. This front and weak synoptic lift will result in deteriorating conditions overnight with low clouds and prospects for low visibility. Shower activity looks fairly light at this time. Already seeing a few places reporting low stratus below 1 kft this evening along the coast around Mayport, Fernandina, and St Simons Island. Continued to trend cigs down tonight with just a bit quicker lowering of vsby and cigs by about the 03Z-08Z time frame for CRG, JAX, VQQ, and SSI with IFR and LIFR. A chance of VLIFR late tonight for these sites. A slow ceiling increase through daybreak Saturday with VCSH and SHRA through midday under shifting winds, due to cold frontal passage, around to north or northeast at SSI early Saturday morning and probably rest of the TAFs developing after 15Z-18Z Saturday. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall is expected through the weekend ahead of a developing low pressure system. However, rainfall will be short-lived and is not expected to result in any substantial hydrologic concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 68 56 69 56 / 70 80 30 60 70 SSI 62 69 61 72 62 / 50 70 20 50 50 JAX 62 72 61 74 62 / 50 60 30 40 40 SGJ 64 76 63 77 65 / 10 50 30 20 30 GNV 62 75 61 77 62 / 20 50 20 20 50 OCF 62 79 63 79 65 / 10 40 10 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&