Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/18/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
450 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Forecast concerns in the short term will be increased cloud cover, how long they last, impact on temperatures tonight, strengthening south winds for Wednesday, and temperatures Wednesday. Farther out, we`ll want to see how the storm system Friday and Saturday evolves. GOES satellite imagery showed a band of mid-level warm advection clouds...which at 18Z had pushed into the KRST to KDEH. The OAX 12Z sounding had a moisture layer from 8K-11K AGL. The RAP appeared underdone with the clouds and was too slow with their arrival. The back edge extended from eastern South Dakota toward Des Moines, IA. At the surface, high pressure extended across the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley. Afternoon temperatures were in the 30s to lower 40s with dewpoints in the teens and 20s and light and variable winds. Through Wednesday, the mid-level ridge over the Rockies will build in to the Great Lakes with rising heights. Surface low pressure developing across southern Canada will induce south flow across a large portion of the nation`s mid-section. The mid clouds will continue to spread eastward and if they continue east at the same speed...should be east of the area after 01Z at KRST and after 03Z at KLSE. Light and variable winds tonight should help some cool spot locations in WI under the ridge drop down into the teens to around 20. Farther to the west, the south winds increase aloft and should hinder temperatures from bottoming out. Sunshine for Wednesday will help local readings warm through the 40s into the 50s. Boosted the south winds with gusts 30 to 40 mph. KRST may gust higher. At this time, winds look to remain below wind advisory criteria. Farther west, records are threatened for parts of the Central Plains where highs are forecast to be in the 70s. Local maximum records for LSE are 68 for Wed (set in 1999, 1953, and 1941). For RST the record for Wed is 69 set in 1939. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Not as cold Wednesday night with lows in the 30s/40s. The ridge begins to flatten with a cold front pushing into MPX`s area by morning. the front slows down and the real cold push comes in more during the evening. Forecast soundings and timesections show that the front comes through dry and although there will be cirrus, the lower clouds lag. The NAEFs Ensemble had h850 temperatures in the 99th or greater percentile. Highs are expected to be in the 50s to mid 60s. Did boost highs, but currently do not have records forecast. Partly due to the recent wetness and cold ground. The record for LSE is 73 set in 1930 Thu. For RST the record for Thu is 68 set in 1930. Cold high pressure across Canada builds southward across the northern U.S. Thursday night through Saturday. A shortwave trough over Nevada and Utah will trace into the Plains with overrunning precipitation north of the front. There are still some differences as to how far north the precipitation will make it and what the thermal structure will be. The EC is farther south; move over Missouri, compared to the GFS which has a stronger front farther north and significant snow for the forecast area this weekend. The GEFs members are clustered around an inch or less with a few members around 3 inches and a couple much higher. The EC ensemble is also around an inch or less with a couple of members in the 6 to 12 inch range. The probabilistic forecasts initially have us in the 10-30% for .25 water equivalent or more. Our NBM blended forecast mirrors the farther south track. The EC EPS seems to have less variability in temperatures from FRI/SAT/SUN. The wave takes shape Friday into Friday night, so we`ll want to keep an eye on this. A reinforcing front comes through Sunday. Could see some light snow with this too. Temperatures remain above normal with 40s and 50s for Friday and 30s and 40s Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 450 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Mid-level warm advection cloud shield will pass east through the evening with only some occasional high clouds at times through the rest of the period. A period of LLWS is expected late tonight into Wednesday morning as winds just off the surface increase to over 50 kt, particularly at KLSE where surface winds may remain a bit lighter. S/SE winds will increase to 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts during the morning on Wednesday before slowly subsiding late in the afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
624 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 No major updates the forecast based on latest guidance. Current forecast trend looks good but will continue to monitor, especially for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1239 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 19Z UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large, fairly high amplitude ridge entering western CWA with area of high clouds not making it very far from the ridge axis. At the surface, lee trough continues to deepen with temperatures climbing into the 70s at many locations. Aforementioned H5 ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area through Wednesday maintaining warm and dry conditions. The main concern through Wednesday will be the magnitude of fire weather threat. Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds will lead to similar overnight conditions as yesterday. With lower spots radiating out quite well and temperatures holding up on relative high spots, but otherwise little sensible weather impacts are expected. On Wednesday, H5 ridge axis shifts to the east and flattens somewhat with flow aloft becoming more zonal and perpendicular to the Rockies. At first glance, record breaking highs look likely as locations near 80. The aforementioned height pattern however, has me a bit concern for potential mountain wave cirrus that would persist across the area in the afternoon. While not likely, if it does occur could easily hold temperatures back 3-5 degrees. This uncertainty with respect to heating further complicates potential fire danger forecast. Assuming the warmest solutions, will see much of the northwest CWA have several hours of relative humidity below 15 percent. Meanwhile the stronger winds will be out of phase with this area, mainly south of Interstate 70. While I was leaning towards a fire weather watch, uncertainty just to high at this point to warrant one. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 The main points of interest for the extended period include a cool down along with precipitation chances for weekend . Semi-zonal flow over the region for Thursday will lead to dry conditions. A cold front then moves through during the day that is expected to cap highs slightly cooler than previous days, albeit still above normal. Friday during the day still has the advancing trough from the SW migrating towards the plains. The majority of Friday will remain dry. However gulf moisture advection overspreads the plains. Precipitation chances start to increase during the evening into the overnight hours. Guidance still varies on the start of the precipitation, so confidence remains low on that aspect but still confident that much needed precipitation will occur, with mainly rain but snow may try to mix in due to the cooler temperatures. Rain chances will persist throughout the day Saturday. Precipitation chances continue Saturday night into Sunday morning. Guidance currently is trending toward slightly lower temperatures for Sunday, so a rain/snow mix overnight Saturday may change to all snow for a period of time during the Sunday morning hours. I have been noticing that guidance ensembles are trending towards some gustier winds during the time period of the potential all snow, some blowing snow may be of concern during that time frame. I will not make any significant changes to the wind forecast at this time due to a lack of certainty but this will continue to be monitored. The pattern then shifts back to a northwesterly flow during the Sunday afternoon hours which leads to a dry start for the latter portion of the extended forecast period. Above normal temperatures are still expected for Thursday but not nearly as warm as previous days as highs in the NW portion of the CWA may only reach the mid 60`s while other areas will be in the 70`s. Starting Friday, a cool down is expected to more normal like temperatures for mid-November as widespread highs in the 50`s are expected. The majority of the weekend highs will struggle to make it out of the 40`s before a slight warm up back into the 50`s looks possible for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 426 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 A trough of low pressure that remained over eastern Colorado for most of the day, is expected to transition a bit northeast from its current location into southwest Nebraska before repositioning over the Front Range/eastern Colorado for the afternoon hours on Wednesday. No precipitation is expected and VFR conditions will ensue during the forecast period, with wind shift being the only wx issue/ concern. Winds for KGLD, south southwest 10-15kts through 10z Wednesday, then west southwest around 10kts. By 19z, a shift back to the southwest around 10-15kts. Winds for KMCK, south around 10kts through 11z Wednesday, then west southwest less than 10kts. By 20z, a return to a southerly flow around 10kts, with a shift towards southeast by 23z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 215 AM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Record/near record high temperatures are expected Wednesday November 18 at the following locations: Goodland..........77 degrees set in 2008 and previous years Hill City.........80 degrees set in 1908 McCook............76 degrees set in 1933 Burlington........76 degrees set in 2008 Colby.............76 degrees set in 1981 Tribune...........78 degrees set in 1999 Yuma..............76 degrees set in 1999 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN/KAK SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...DDT