Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/17/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Synoptic light snow has been falling this evening over far southern parts of the forecast area (MBL/CAD/Gladwin). This is associated with a well-defined shortwave moving ese-ward into the central Great Lakes. The rest of northern lower MI is relatively quiet, though with a Superior-Huron lake effect band edging closer to Cheboygan and Rogers. More vigorous (but transitory) lake effect is occurring in eastern upper MI. Bands are being displaced southward with time as 1000-850mb winds gradually veer from wnw to nw. Sault Canada vsby was down to 1 1/4SM earlier in a graupelly snow. The re-establishment of a Superior connection thanks to veering winds will reinvigorate snow showers in northern lower MI, toward and after midnight. That said, for earlier parts of the night pops have already been sharply lowered. There is vigorous enough activity in eastern upper MI to support a general 1-3" in Chippewa Co. The real question is where and when any dominant bands can get established, once the fetch settles down. And the primary signal from the models is that this will take until somewhat late in the overnight. Eventually, in northern lower, a stronger band will likely set up from Bellaire to HTL (as expected by the day shift), but that will take until well past midnight. Similarly, a dominant band off of Superior (with a Lk Nipigon origin, a common sight early in the season) should favor something along or just east of a Paradise- Cedarville-Rogers City band. Have made adjustments to pops/QPF into Tue morning, in particular increasing snow amounts near that Paradise-Cedarville-Rogers axis. The HRRR spitting out of 0.70" QPF in central Chippewa Co by mid afternoon Tue is probably overdone, but does raise eyebrows here anyways. Have 2-5" over 18hrs (overnight-Tue afternoon) from western Chip to eastern Mack, eastern Presque Isle, and far ne Alpena Cos. I`m not issuing an advisory at this time, but seriously considered doing so. Confidence level isn`t quite there, yet. Will make some changes to the HWO shortly, and of course this and later shifts will be watching trends closely. The day shift already targeted a small area of Antrim/Kalkaska Cos for 2-5" overnight and Tue, that still looks reasonable. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...Lake Effect Snow for Some Tonight into Tuesday... High Impact Weather Potential...Possible slick roads and reduced visibility across the snowbelts. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Northwest flow aloft will continue to transport cold air into the region tonight into Tuesday. Surface high pressure will then begin to build in Tuesday afternoon. Primary Forecast Concerns...Extent and intensity of lake effect snow. A short wave currently moving across Wisconsin will increase moisture and over lake instability across northern Michigan overnight into Tuesday morning. The flow will veer from westerly this afternoon into the northwest later this evening and continue into Tuesday. Therefore, am expecting northwest flow lake effect snow showers to be on the increase tonight then continue into Tuesday morning (may be a little mixy near the shorelines). Surface high pressure and associated drier air should then begin to diminish activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is plenty of over lake instability with lake/850 mb delta ts in the lower 20s. However, moisture is just okay with 850-700 mb rh on the order of 60 to 70 percent. Looking at model soundings...more of the same with inversion heights only expanding to a modest 4000 to 5000 feet or so. The flow should tap both Lake Superior and Lake Michigan and with the excellent over lake instability there could be a couple of decent bands that across eastern upper and another one off of Lake Michigan targeting the Kalkaska and Houghton Lake areas. Won`t go too crazy with accumulations for now due to uncertainty over how things set up with upwards of a couple of inches in these areas. However the overnight shift should monitor current trends and an advisory though unlikely isn`t out of the question. Meanwhile, plenty of clouds across much of northern Michigan should limit diurnal and nighttime temperature ranges so increased lows into the mid 20s to low 30s and lowered highs into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds will pick some with gusts pushing 25 to 30 mph overnight into Tuesday morning. These winds will make it feel rather brisk with apparent temperatures only ranging from the mid teens to low 20s Tuesday...burr! && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High impact weather potential: Some chances for lake effect snow, only light accumulations expected at this time. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Northwesterly flow will continue as the forecast area remains wedged between high pressure centered off to our southwest and a low pressure system east of the Hudson Bay. There is still available moisture, delta t/s reaching nearly 20C, and inversion heights of around 4-5kft...expect lake effect snow Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. I do not expect too much accumulation of the snow to occur...only minor accumulations. Said high pressure to our southwest will be building into the forecast area...providing drier low-levels and flow will become more anticyclonic. Only forecasting about 1-2" as the highest snow totals by Wednesday morning. High pressure will continue to build over the Great Lakes region Wednesday...decreasing cloudiness and ending precipitation chances. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and beyond. A very weak and moisture starved cold front will approach the forecast area during the day Thursday...increasing cloudiness, but no precipitation is forecast at this time. Winds will begin to back to the southwest through Wednesday morning and decreasing in intensity as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds in. As the high pressure moves to the east the winds will become gusty once again as the forecast area is once again wedged between a low pressure system off to the northwest an the aforementioned high pressure off to our southeast...tightening the pressure gradients once again and producing wind gusts of around 20 mph by the late afternoon/evening hours. Winds will continue to be gusty and out of the southwest throughout the remainder of this forecast period. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday with the WAA on southwesterly winds and warm into the low 50s Thursday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will generally be in the 20s, with some of our "cold spots" reaching into the teens. Wednesday night will only drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High impact weather potential: None High pressure will continue to dominate northern Michigan`s weather, with precipitation-free weather and partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout much of the day Friday. The long term models are hinting at the next storm system developing on the lee side of the Rockies and beginning to impact the Great Lakes region by Friday night and continuing to do so through the rest of the forecast period with synoptic precipitation falling as either a rain/snow mix or all snow. There is an area of high pressure and dry air just north of the northern edge of this system...which could make a defining line of where precipitation is and isn`t. This will be something to watch for in the future model runs. As of right now the line is running through the Straits area, but could waver north or south in future runs. Winds could be gusty at times...especially during the afternoon hours with diurnal mixing, but no major wind system noticed at this time. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal. Nighttime temperatures will generally be in the 30s, with warmer temperatures near the shorelines of the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 An upper level disturbance is bringing -SN to parts of central and southern lower MI. MBL will see IFR conditions in -SN for another 2-3 hours. Lake effect snow should increase in coverage/intensity after this departs, as somewhat cooler air moves in. That will make MVFR cigs more prevalent, and chances for snow showers tonight into Tue. Current westerly breezes will veer nw, and become a little gustier overnight and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Small craft advisory wind speeds are expected through at least Tuesday and across some spots into the first half of Tuesday night. In addition, a few gusts to near gale force are possible later tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure and lighter winds arrive overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Return flow gusty southerly flow then looks to ramp up Wednesday afternoon. Mainly light lake effect showers are expected through Tuesday evening in the typical snowbelts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1053 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cold and brisk weather pattern is expected into midweek with below average temperatures, gusty winds, and lake effect snow showers. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is probable in the northwest PA snowbelts and higher elevations of western PA late tonight through Tuesday. The early to midweek chill will be short-lived with temperatures trending warmer to above average from Thursday through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Clouds will overspread the region tonight, as clipper approaches from the lower Grt Lks. Upstream radar imagery at 03Z shows an area of light rain and snow across lower Michigan/northwest Ohio in region of waa ahead of clipper. RAP 850-700mb fgen forcing fields suggest this area of light precipitation will spread across the northern part of the forecast area between 06Z-11Z. Although model soundings indicate it will be cold enough for snow, a blend of latest guidance indicates any accumulations across the northern counties will be less than an inch. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak, moisture-starved clipper is progged to exit the region around or shortly after 12Z Tuesday, followed by a seasonably cold northwest flow, which will support a period of lake effect snow showers across primarily the northwest mountains/Laurel Highlands Tuesday into Tuesday night. The most widespread lake-enhanced orographic snow showers are expected during the morning hours. Falling inversion heights expected with passage of upper trough axis during the afternoon is likely to result in diminishing snow shower coverage at that time. However, models indicate some locally heavy snow showers/squalls are possible during the afternoon across the Allegheny Plateau, where models indicate steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and some minimal surface-based cape. While inversion heights between 800-750mb are not conducive for heavy snow rates, convection allowing models are signaling the possibility of a fairly significant single band with Lk Huron connection affecting parts of Warren County late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Expect dwindling snow showers later Tuesday night, as high pressure approaches and inversion heights fall. A blend of NBM/WPC/HREF guidance support a general 1-3 inches Tuesday/Tuesday evening over the NW mtns, with up to 4 inches possible across the snowbelt of northwest Warren Co. Elsewhere, expect a coating to an inch or two along the Laurel Highlands. Parts of the south-central Alleghenies eastward into the ridge/valley region will see periods of rain/snow showers but no accumulation forecast south/east of I-99/US-220. Coordination with neighboring offices lead to no advisory issuance with this shift given lack of advy level accum in any 12hr period. Will continue to message potential travel disruptions in the HWO and social media platforms. Cold cyclonic flow pattern is often a good opportunity to trend daytime highs below guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday should feature fair and chilly conditions, as surface high builds over the state. Latest ECENS and GEFS continue to support fair and progressively milder weather late week into next weekend, as upper trough lifts out and is replaced by a broad ridge over the eastern CONUS. Ensemble plumes indicate well above normal temperatures are likely late week into the weekend, as surface high slips off the Mid Atlantic coast and southwesterly return flow develops. A dying cold front appears likely to approach from the north by Saturday, but have kept most of the area dry per latest NBM POPs and based on lack of significant forcing. A better chance of showers will likely come with the arrival of a more potent cold front by Monday of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z TAFS sent. Winds still up in some spots, but should die off by 02Z. Skies clear across the region now. A fast moving weak low near the western Great Lakes will bring some patchy light rain and snow to the area late tonight and early Tuesday. This will be followed by a deep northwest flow of air off the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon with snow showers across the west, along with gusty winds. Thus BFD and JST will see poor conditions for aviation on and off throughout the day. Improving conditions by Wednesday afternoon, as winds weaken and warming aloft shuts down the lake effect snow showers. The rest of the week will feature a major warm up and a return to mainly clear skies. Outlook... Wed...Low cigs psbl early wrn 1/3. Bcmg VFR with winds subsiding. Thu...VFR/no sig wx. Southerly breeze developing. Fri...VFR/no sig wx. Sat...Rain possible along frontal zone over the NW airspace. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis depicts a longwave upper ridge building over the western CONUS with a longwave trough downstream over the eastern CONUS. These features will move slowly eastward today as surface high pressure builds into the high plains. Surface winds are in the process of veering from northerly to southerly in response to building high pressure, and this has also caused southwest Kansas to lose the downslope component to the winds. Consequently, most areas have likely achieved, or are near their high temperature for the day. Temperatures should hold in the 60s during the day before dropping into the lower 30s overnight. The upper level pattern will begin to dampen Tuesday as another longwave trough approaches the west coast. A lee cyclone will develop and deepen in eastern Colorado making Tuesday much windier with sustained south winds in the 20-25 mph range and gusts up to 35 mph possible. Highs will be warmer given the south winds and most areas should see upper 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 At the beginning of the long term period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the central plains with a trough moving inland over the west coast states. A deep surface cyclone will be located over southern Alberta with an associated pressure influence extending into the southern plains. South winds will only weaken slightly Tuesday night limiting overnight radiational cooling and keeping most of southwest Kansas in the low to mid 40s. South winds will increase once again Wednesday as the surface cyclone traverses southern Canada and slowly fills. Wednesday will be the warmest of the period, with highs ranging from the mid 70s in central Kansas to the low 80s near the CO/KS border. Winds will finally begin to relax Wednesday night as the tightest surface pressure gradient slides to our east. Thursday will likely see a weak cold front associated with the low in Canada sag into southwest Kansas during the day as the upper level pattern dampens to near zonal flow. This boundary will stall out somewhere across our area, however guidance differs on exact placement. Highs Thursday south of this boundary will reach into the low 80s, while areas north of the boundary will likely stay in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday will be cooler owing to increased cloud cover and the cold front beginning to move south. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning, guidance suggests a series of impulses will eject into the central plains pushing the cold front through the rest of the area. Guidance is in decent agreement that rain will develop Saturday behind the front and last through at least Sunday evening, possibly lingering into Monday morning in our southeast zones. Periods of wintry mix or snow is also possible, especially in our northwest zones, Sunday and Monday morning, however no accumulation is expected. Another warming trend should begin Monday as south winds resume on the west side of surface high pressure. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 454 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear skies. Winds will shift to a southerly direction by sunrise tomorrow and increase in speed by tomorrow afternoon. Gusts above 25 knots are expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 67 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 32 68 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 33 71 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 31 70 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 33 67 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 P28 36 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
444 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1253 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA in broad northwesterly flow aloft with large H5 ridge to the west of the area, centered over the northern Rockies. At the sfc, 1027 mb high was centered over west central Nebraska south into the Goodland area. Weather across the Tri State area will be quiet through the period as aforementioned H5 ridge amplifies and moves over the region. This will lead to widespread subsidence and dry conditions through the period. Temperatures will continue to warm and based on how fast todays temperatures reached or exceeded the expected values today, think the warmer solutions pushing into the lower 70s looks reasonable. Strong lee trough will develop Tuesday morning leading to increased southerly winds into the afternoon. May see a few locations near a Tribune to Oakley line where sustained winds approach 30 mph. Right now, humidity values are not expected to be low enough to warrant any fire highlights. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1221 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 The main points of interest for the extended period include above normal temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday, plus rain chances towards the end of the week and through the weekend. The early week ridge pushes off to the east as zonal flow overtakes the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will feature warm, above normal temperatures with near record to record breaking temperatures looking more likely. Elevated to near critical fire weather still looks possible as RH values fall to the mid teens during the afternoon. The only question if criteria may be met is the winds. Southerly sustained winds of 10-15 knots are expected during the morning but diminishing as the afternoon goes on, afternoon mixing may allow some gusts of 20-25 knots but those may be spotty. As of right now its appearing the best area of potentially meeting criteria is located south of I70 and west of Highway 27. Thursday won`t be nearly as warm but still above normal as a cold front moves across the Tri-State area during the afternoon hours. Friday and throughout the weekend, the pattern begins to change as southwesterly flow in advance of a trough advance towards the area. Moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico makes its way into the plains during the day Friday. As the disturbance gets closer during the night on Friday enough lift is expected to produce rain showers that will last until early Sunday morning. PWAT values ranging from the 97.5-99th climatological percentile indicated that a nice, needed soaking rain is appearing possible at this time. Currently, it appears an all liquid event is most likely but some snow may try to mix in as well, especially during the overnight hours as temperatures cool. A last final shot of precip is possible during the night on Sunday as any additional rain showers may switch over to snow as low temperatures drop into the 20`s and 30`s. Widespread 70`s and isolated 80`s are in store for Wednesday. A cold front moving through the area on Thursday will cap the temperatures at the mid 60`s in the northwestern portion of the CWA while the remainder will be in the 70`s. As colder air moves back into the area highs on Friday will mainly be in the 50`s before widespread 40`s will encompass the entire area for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 418 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 00Z TAF period. Mostly clear skies are expected with light south winds overnight becoming gusty out of the southwest during the afternoon on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 510 AM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Record/near record high temperatures are expected Wednesday November 18 at the following locations: Goodland..........77 degrees set in 2008 and previous years McCook............76 degrees set in 1933 Burlington........76 degrees set in 2008 Colby.............76 degrees set in 1981 Tribune...........78 degrees set in 1999 Yuma..............76 degrees set in 1999 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...LOCKHART CLIMATE...DDT
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 .Aviation... Moisture will increase across the region overnight and tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area from the north. Conditions should gradually deteriorate with VCSH/SHRA increasing over the adjacent Atlantic waters. While a few of these may spill over the east coast terminals, primarily VFR conditions should prevail. Additionally, ENE winds will also gradually increase and veer out of the NE in the fronts wake. && .Update... Latest surface analysis drapes a frontal boundary just north of Lake Okeechobee. Along the boundary and across the southern edge of the peninsula, satellite derived PWATs reveal enhanced swaths of moisture which are helping to spark some shallow convection this evening. As the front approaches overnight and into tomorrow, coastal convergence could allow for an uptick in coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, mainly along the east coast and adjacent Atlantic waters. Gusty northeasterly winds in the boundary`s wake will allow for seas to become agitated, first in the Gulf and later in the Atlantic. Therefore, have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters beginning at 7 AM EST. Advisories for the Atlantic are sure to follow in forthcoming updates. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 235 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020/ SHORT TERM... Today Mostly dry and cooler today, as a frontal boundary approaches South Florida. The presence of a long, distinct frontal boundary draped across central Florida has allowed for a cooler and drier airmass to begin ushering into the region. This frontal boundary is forecast to progress southward, which will further allow for a modified continental polar airmass to advect over the region in the coming days. A large subsidence inversion is evident on the 12Z MFL sounding, indicative of synoptic scale subsidence, likely owing to the presence of a short-wave ridge advecting over the area. This should quell shower and storm activity, as the best chances for precipitation today will be confined to northern portions of the forecast area. The warming with height in the mid/upper levels indicates that any convective development will be hampered by a hostile synoptic-scale environment today, and any activity that does develop is forecast to be relatively short-lived. Tuesday The aforementioned cold-front is forecast to progress south/southeastward, approaching South Florida early morning Tuesday. Ahead of this boundary, a wedge of higher theta-e air exists within the boundary layer, particularly over the nearshore Atlantic waters and continuing over the Atlantic metro region. RAP guidance shows a coastal moisture convergence setup ahead of the front, with the strongest signal presently located over the Palm Beach/Broward County border. Regardless, showers are possible for the entire Atlantic metro region. The main concern is localized flooding, particularly in poorly-drained urban regions. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, but instability will be lackluster owing to cooler near-surface temperature advection likely which will act to reduce thunderstorm potential/potency. Maximum temperatures will transition from seasonable today (mid/upper 80s) to seasonably cool Tuesday (low/mid 80s) with the cold-front providing modest relief across the region. LONG TERM... Tuesday Night through Friday... A mid-level ridge will gradually progress from the southern Great Plains towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday. This will support a strong surface high pressure area while it slides southeast from the Ohio Valley towards the South Atlantic states. A cold front initially across far southern portions of the area may bring showers to southern/eastern Miami-Dade County during the evening hours before drier conditions prevail. As the remnant front stalls over the northern Caribbean Sea a robust pressure gradient will prevail. Given northeast 925 mb winds averaging 25-30+ kt and the potential for downward momentum transport into the surface layer, a Wind Advisory may be needed for the eastern coastal areas. Otherwise the biggest sensible weather change will be lower humidity values and a slight decrease in temperatures. The coolest period should be Wednesday into Thursday, with highs mostly in the 70s and lows mostly in the 60s away from the Atlantic coast. However the onshore wind component should keep readings in the 70s along the eastern coastal interface. A few showers may approach from the east by Friday evening. Saturday through Monday... The upper ridge across our area is forecast to weaken as a closed upper circulation develops over the Bahamas. This feature, and an associated surface low, are forecast to pinwheel in place over the weekend before ejecting to the north/northeast next week ahead of an approaching trough. While South Florida should remain displaced from the deeper moisture associated with this system, enhanced cloud cover and shower chances may return. Breezy conditions will continue. Temperatures should remain seasonal, with highs mostly in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. MARINE... Though Monday appears to be a relatively benign marine weather day, this will change Tuesday as a cold-front approaches the region. The front and corresponding tightening pressure gradient force will act to increase wind speeds across the local waters, and isolated gale force gusts are possible as early as Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory, as there is increasing confidence that the winds will meet this criteria, particularly for the Atlantic waters. With the tightening pressure gradient expected to continue through the week, a prolonged SCA may be necessary. BEACHES... Isolated showers are possible today, particularly over Palm Beach County. Rip current risk remains low for Monday, however this will change for the Atlantic on Tuesday and especially going into mid- week with an approaching cold front. The cold front and corresponding higher wind speeds are also forecast to increase the surf heights across the waters, especially over Palm Beach County. Finally, New Moon King Tides will continue through midweek. The continuation of the coastal flood statement is needed through at least Tuesday as minor coastal flooding during high tides will remain possible for the Atlantic coast. PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 83 70 79 / 30 50 10 0 West Kendall 72 83 69 79 / 20 50 10 0 Opa-Locka 72 82 69 78 / 40 50 10 0 Homestead 72 83 70 79 / 20 50 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 70 79 / 40 50 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 81 70 77 / 40 50 10 0 Pembroke Pines 73 83 70 80 / 40 50 10 0 West Palm Beach 72 80 69 77 / 40 50 0 10 Boca Raton 73 82 70 79 / 40 50 0 10 Naples 69 82 62 80 / 10 0 0 0 MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. $$ Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Bhatti Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... West Palm Beach 72 80 69 77 / 40 30 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 74 82 70 79 / 30 40 10 0 Miami 73 82 70 79 / 30 40 10 0 Naples 69 82 63 80 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Friday for CMOS-657-676. && Aviation/Update...11/HVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. Will have dry and warm conditions through Tuesday ahead of the next Pacific storm system. This system will quickly move moisture into central and southeast Idaho Tuesday night with rain and snow overspreading the area. Snow levels will be high, generally between 6 and 7 thousand feet but high elevations could see heavy snow. A winter storm watch has been issued for the central mountains where some mountain passes...especially Galena Summit could see a foot of snow. The watch is in effect from 11 pm Tuesday night until 11 PM Wednesday night. Expect mainly rain in the valleys. High temperatures will be well above normal through Wednesday with highs in the 50s in the valleys Tuesday with some slight cooling in cloud cover and precipitation into the 40s Wednesday. Winds are not expected to be too strong with this system with limited drifting at the high elevations. GK .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... Our wx for the end of the week and upcoming weekend is looking fairly low-impact at this juncture in the wake of our mid-week storm system. Snow showers may linger Thurs in most of our mtn ranges with generally an additional 2 inches or less of accumulation, with a drying trend ensuing Fri, Sat, and Sun as a shortwave high pressure ridge rides through the active storm track. Agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian seems to be increasing in this scenario. NBM guidance still seems a little overdone on PoPs and cloud cover under this ridge, but we expect this should trend in line over the next couple days if agreement among the input models holds. By Sun night/Mon AM, yet another shortwave trough moves inland across the nrn Rockies, although models disagree on how much rain/snow shower activity this feature will be able to generate across SE Idaho (near the srn fringes of the shortwave), so confidence remains very low beyond Sun. Temps should remain fairly stagnant throughout the period, topping out in the 30s most afternoons for most locations, which is near to just a couple degrees below normal for mid-Nov. Sat/Sun AMs may be quite cold (single digits to teens) depending on clearing. - KSmith && .AVIATION... Early afternoon satellite shows continued erosion/NE progression of a mid-level cloud deck at about 8,000 feet, allowing KPIH/KBYI to break out into sunshine and finally allowing us to get a visual on low stratus socked in from some of the Central Mtn valleys east across the Upper Snake Plain, Upper Snake Highlands, and Teton Valley regions. This is affecting KIDA in particular where IFR vsbys continue. Pretty much all guidance progressively burns off this low stratus over the next several hours, but this may be just a bit too progressive per satellite trends. For now we continue to break KIDA out to VFR cigs around 21z and will amend to push that out if needed...KRXE is leaning this direction already so that`s a good sign. Behind the stratus, non-impactful wx should take hold in the form of a large swath of sct high-level clouds advancing in across OR/wrn ID and pretty light sfc winds as weak high pressure builds in. We continue to watch for potential development of southerly winds downsloping off the mntns south of KPIH this afternoon/eve per HRRR guidance which may allow a runway crosswind and gusts over 20kts. The other big element we need to watch closely is LLWS potential by daybreak Tue AM at all terminals (except perhaps KSUN) as 1,500-2,000 ft winds may exceed 35kts out of the SSW and sfc mixing seems unlikely due to VERY strong inversions advertised on NAM/RAP forecast soundings (this lack of mixing is particularly evident on MOS guidance, and COULD even hold into the afternoon). We have not included LLWS in the TAFs yet, but inclusion is looking increasingly likely in future updates. The increase in winds aloft is ahead of our next wx system that will bring rain/snow showers and lowering cigs regionwide by Tue night/Wed AM. - KSmith && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for IDZ072-073. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
222 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A storm moves in Tuesday for strong winds, especially in eastern California and far western Nevada. Some wind damage is possible in the immediate lee of the Sierra. Rain and higher elevation snow are likely later Tuesday and Wednesday with travel in the Sierra affected. Mild temperatures through Tuesday will fall closer to average mid-week through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Forecast thinking now supports a bit stronger winds Tuesday with a solid high wind event now expected for eastern CA and far western NV. As far as snowfall amounts for the Sierra from Alpine County northward and above valley floors across northeast CA, a good number of simulations have increased their QPF with snow levels possibly a bit lower than previously expected. In any case, there is high confidence that travel over Sierra passes and the higher roads across northeast CA will be affected by snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Let`s break the weather elements down... * WIND... Wind projections for Tuesday from blended model guidance have come up a bit more this morning. Also, now that short-term guidance from the HRRR is available to add confidence, concern has increased for a solid high wind event (more widespread peak gusts to 60+ mph) for eastern CA and far western and northwestern NV. More damage is possible than with the last round of wind (last Friday) as fencing/trees could have been weakened from those winds and this event could feature a good 8-12 hours of strong wind ahead of the cold front. See our wind statements for more details of the expected wind speeds and impacts. Farther east into the west-central NV basin and range, given that good mixing is expected with 700 mb winds 40-55 kts ahead of a cold front, we now expect wind gusts to peak out in the 40-55 mph range Tuesday afternoon-evening. Thusly, a wind advisory has been issued for Pyramid Lake and Pershing and Churchill counties. Blustery conditions with gusts to ~25-40 mph are expected Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of troughing with winds aloft remaining elevated. * PRECIPITATION... Many simulations have come in with heavier precipitation totals Tuesday-Wednesday, especially in eastern California from Alpine County northward but also possibly out into portions of western and northwestern NV. Models now show a secondary wave moving over northern California Wednesday morning which, with the moist westerly flow on the unstable side of the cold front (hung up in Alpine County and out into the Basin and Range), should result in another push of rain and higher elevation snow. This feature, along with the main period of heavier precipitation Tuesday night, have pushed confidence in higher QPF upwards with a winter storm warning to be issued for Lake Tahoe. Also, a bit colder air may filter into northeast CA and northwest NV than expected previously due to the more defined secondary wave. This may allow for more snowfall down to between 5500-6000 feet (affecting Truckee and the Lake Tahoe Basin) than was previously expected through Wednesday. See the latest winter statements to be issued this afternoon for more details. With heavier precipitation still appearing to hang up in Alpine County as the upper jet and cold front stall in their southward propagation, precipitation totals for Mono County remain rather unimpressive with the bulk limited to west of Highway 395. Still, there should still be some relief for drier timber. -Snyder .LONG TERM...Thursday onward... A weak trough over the western U.S. Thursday will maintain cool temperatures, with mostly cloudy skies and chances for light showers. Snow levels within these showers could come down to below 5,000 feet, but any snow accumulations are expected to be localized and fairly light. Clouds should be on the decrease by Thursday night as the trough exits to the east and then a weak high-pressure ridge builds Friday though the weekend. With this ridging, overnight inversions will return leading to cold morning temperatures in valleys (single digits in the typically colder spots) and as a result afternoon temperatures may warm only a degree or two. For next week, the pattern continues to be progressive but there are some indications the weather systems could be weaker compared to tomorrow`s storm and that the deeper moisture may stream more into the Pacific Northwest. That said, there is still potential for snow (especially at mountain passes) which could impact Thanksgiving holiday travel. Make sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you have travel plans next week. JCM && .AVIATION... After fairly light surface winds through this evening (southeast- south around 10 kts) winds increase overnight tonight and become very strong tomorrow as a strong jet aloft move over the Sierra and western Great Basin. * WINDS: Winds aloft will increase significantly 06-12Z Tuesday with ridge level winds 40-55 kts, gusts to 70+ kts. These winds get even stronger Tuesday after 12z with ridge level winds 50-70 kts with gusts up to 100+ kts. South-southwest winds will develop at the Tahoe terminals early Tuesday morning and then expand to all of the eastern Sierra and western NV, intensifying during the morning and afternoon Tuesday. Moderate to severe turbulence, LLWS and rotors will be common with widespread surface wind gusts 40-55 kts, locally stronger to 60-70 kts in wind prone areas along the Highway 395 corridor from Susanville to Lee Vining. Surface winds will back off in these areas Tuesday night as precipitation arrives, but turbulence will likely continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as winds aloft remain strong. Surface winds will likely stay strong from Lee Vining south into KMMH well into the night Tuesday night (gusts 45+ kts at KMMH). * RAIN/SNOW: Rain and high elevation snow will bring mountain obscurement to the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen County beginning Tuesday evening and continuing overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow levels will start above area terminals but there is a chance for rain to change to snow at KTRK and KTVL with up to 3 inches of wet snow possible. Precipitation and terrain obscuration will spread into western NV Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, but fewer impacts are expected for locations east of Highway 95. JCM && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ001. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday NVZ005. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday NVZ002. High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday NVZ003. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ004. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday above 5500 feet in CAZ071. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday CAZ072. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday CAZ070-071. High Wind Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday CAZ073. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...