Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/13/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
806 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 A few showers will impact north-central Illinois this evening...mainly north of the I-72 corridor. After that, chilly and dry weather is anticipated for Friday with high temperatures only in the 40s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The cold front is about to enter our NW counties on its way across the remainder of Illinois tonight. Radar returns are deceiving this evening as the 00z KILX sounding verifies a deep dry layer below 700 mb. Galesburg did report a brief period of light rain, but just trace amounts are most likely going to be the rule the rest of this evening. Therefore, we lowered the PoPs across our northern counties and removed any mention of precip generally south of Canton to Danville. Mainly 20-30 pct chance PoPs were left across the north, but confidence in even that verifying is low. The bigger story will be the gusty NW winds that develop behind the cold front, where 25-30 mph winds are being reported upstream in Iowa. Efficient momentum transfer behind the front could even support a few gusts near 35 mph. The corridor of stronger winds will generally last about 2 hours before wind speeds diminish. A high pressure center pushing into Illinois on Friday will produce a greatly reduced pressure gradient and much lighter winds by Friday afternoon. Low temps tonight will vary greatly from NW to SE across our CWA. Temps are expected to drop into the mid 20s by sunrise on Friday, while areas south of I-70 will be able to remain above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. A chilly day is on tap for Friday, under clear or clearing skies. Highs will struggle to climb through the 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 A cold front currently analyzed from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City will swing through central Illinois tonight. Regional radar mosaic indicates a band of light snow behind the front across southern Minnesota into northern Iowa: however, this band will shift into Wisconsin and will remain well north of the KILX CWA. Of more importance are radar echoes developing ahead of the boundary across northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa. CAMs are all in agreement that showers will develop across this area, then shift eastward across the northern half of the CWA this evening. Given the initially dry boundary layer characterized by dewpoints in the 30s, think it will take awhile for any precip to reach the ground. Once the atmospheric profile moistens sufficiently, sprinkles or very light rain showers will occur along/north of a Jacksonville to Danville line this evening...with any precip quickly ending from west to east overnight. Once the cold front passes, winds will veer to the northwest and gust 20-25mph late tonight into Friday morning. Despite full sunshine on Friday, strong CAA will keep afternoon highs in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure will quickly shift east of the region, allowing a warm advection regime to develop by Friday night. Models often spread clouds/precip into the dry/subsident airmass too quickly in this type of pattern...and this appears to be the case with the latest runs. All solutions are beginning to slow the advance of showers late Friday night, with the 18z NAM now keeping the CWA mostly dry until 12z Saturday. Have therefore reduced PoPs considerably, with only low chance toward dawn along/southwest of a Effingham line. There had previously been some concern that the precip could possibly begin when surface temps were near or even slightly below freezing, but that scenario seems much less likely the precip will be delayed and temperatures will be rising overnight due to increasing southerly flow. Have therefore kept all precip in the form of rain. As the atmosphere moistens and WAA strengthens, rain showers will become widespread across central and southeast Illinois on Saturday. A cold front is progged to push into the area during the evening, and with modest MUCAPE values of 100-300J/kg, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder at that time. Once the front passes, dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will return for the remainder of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 A cold front will push through central Illinois tonight, reaching near PIA/SPI between 03z-05z and CMI/DEC between 06z-08z. A few showers will accompany the front...mainly north of the I-74 corridor. Have continue to mention VCSH at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI between 02z and 09z, but most areas will likely only see sprinkles due to very dry air ahead of the cold front. Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential for low ceilings immediately behind the front. Latest satellite imagery shows an area of MVFR ceilings across central Iowa and these may swing into central Illinois later tonight. The latest HRRR forecast has diminished the coverage of MVFR cigs in our CWA behind the front, but upstream OBS lend enough support to continue MVFR at KPIA after 05z and farther east to KCMI after 09z. Farther south, have maintained VFR ceilings at both KSPI and KDEC through the entire period. Winds will initially be E/SE at around 8kt early this evening, then will veer to W/SW toward mid to late evening...then will veer to the NW and gust 18-22kt late tonight into Friday morning after FROPA. The surface high center will advance into Illinois Friday afternoon, bringing clear skies and winds diminishing to less than 10kt. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
536 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 247 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Currently, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave digging into the Central Plains and heading toward the Midwest. This shortwave will send a cold front through the CWA this evening into the overnight hours. Weak echoes have been noted along this front this afternoon across northwestern MO and southeastern IA, and there may be the potential for echoes to occur over our CWA late this afternoon and evening as this front pushes through. Additionally, cloud cover and weak echoes are currently also showing up across southwestern and southern MO pushing eastward associated with the nose of a small H850 jet and weak area of warm air advection. With a 20-30 degree spread in surface temperatures and dew points, as well as RAP soundings showing a rather dry lower atmosphere across the CWA, I continue to have confidence that this activity will remain weak and likely not overcome the dry air to reach the surface. Therefore, I am maintaining a dry forecast, but I could not completely rule out a rogue sprinkle or two and some virga late this afternoon and evening. The only other notable weather with this front will be winds shifting to out of the northwest and gusting around 20-25 mph overnight. An area of high pressure will settle into the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight behind the front and keep our weather cool and calm through tomorrow. Low-level cold air advection will drive temperatures down into the mid-30s to mid-20s for overnight lows and mid-40s to near 50 tomorrow for highs - about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. This surface high will quickly depart the Middle Mississippi Valley to the east tomorrow evening, returning southerly flow to the CWA ahead of the next system. Elmore .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 247 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The first higher chance of rain will occur early Saturday morning through mid-day. During this part of the period, upper-level divergence and lift from an approaching shortwave will be coincident with a low-level jet bringing warm, moist air into the CWA. This initial area of rain will be focused on the broader I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 corridor in IL. The chance of rain will wane somewhat during the afternoon, but ramp up again ahead of a second stronger shortwave and approaching cold front Saturday evening. Enough instability will be available for isolated thunderstorms to occur with this FROPA. While bulk shear will be on the order of 50+ kts, the limited levels of instability currently forecast will keep the threat of severe thunderstorms out of the CWA. The front and precip will clear the CWA late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. As for rain totals, both NAEFS and EPS guidance have PWAT values of nearly an inch over the CWA on Saturday - around the 90th percentile of climatological norms. With this level of moisture in place between these two events, QPF totals approach 1 inch along the I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 corridor in IL with amounts diminishing to around a half inch northwestward and southeastward in the CWA. Behind the front on Sunday through the remainder of the period, northwest flow aloft will hold over the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the surface, weather across the CWA will be dictated primarily by high pressure, keeping conditions calm and dry. Temperatures gradually increase through the end of the period, but there is much spread among ensemble and blended guidance on exactly how warm or cool we will be. Part of this is most likely due to differences in placement and timing of a dry frontal passage seen in deterministic models in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Current forecasted temperatures are roughly mean values, and WPC cluster analysis shows that more members favor these mean values or a slightly warmer solution, so I have confidence in the currently forecasted values for now. One thing that the ensembles do agree on is a dry period from Sunday morning through Thursday. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 With VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period, the primary concern is the dry cold front that is currently pushing into NE MO and west-central IL. This front will cause winds to quickly pick up and swing around to the northwest. Fortunately no rain is anticipated due to very dry near-surface air, though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. A secondary concern is a band of MVFR clouds behind the front stretching from Wisconsin into NW MO. The vast majority of guidance shows this band of clouds breaking up as it moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley, so I`ve left it out of the TAFs for the time being. That said, we`ll be keeping a close eye on it through the night and on the off chance it stays together longer than expected, MVFR cigs could be possible at the terminals, especially UIN. BSH && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
636 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 310 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020 Water vapor satellite shows a positively tilted northern stream short wave digging into the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a band of low-level fgen through Iowa, southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin, and nudging into the western U.P. A band of snow has persisted for much of the day as this front has pushed eastward through Minnesota. As the aforementioned wave becomes neutrally tilted this evening, mid-level Q-vector forcing will increase over the Upper Great Lakes leading to an increase in frontal precip for the central and eastern U.P. Therefore, expect to see rain/snow fill in across the central U.P. over the next couple of hours. Temps warmed into the mid to upper 40s over much of the central and east today, so precip will initially fall in the form of rain, then change over to snow from west to east. Expect that changeover to occur around 01-03z for most of Marquette County, and all of the CWA to be seeing snow by about 08z. Moisture ahead of the front is not particularly impressive, but there should be enough forcing to squeeze out around 0.1-0.25" of precip for most areas, which after the start as rain will translate to around 1-2" for most areas along and east of a L`Anse to Watersmeet line (a little less along the Lake Michigan shoreline). The only tricky spot will be across the eastern U.P. where SW flow ahead of the front will provide some additional lake-enhanced moisture. The HRRR and a few other CAMs show a strong Lake Michigan lake-effect band nosing up into Manistique and Newberry. Not confident in that exact placement (or even if it occurring at all since lake-effect parameters are awfully marginal) so smoothed out the QPF somewhat. However, if such a band were to form, and the changeover to snow were to occur an hour or two sooner than expected, could see a surprise couple of inches in these areas. This will be something to watch this evening as the front nudges closer. Tomorrow, 850 mb temps will drop to around -12 C behind the front which will support some lake-effect snow showers in the NW wind LES belts. However, models show moisture scouring out pretty quickly, so not expecting anything robust. Only expect another half inch of snow after 12z tomorrow, and only in the typical spots for NW flow. Regardless of the snow, it`ll be cooler tomorrow with highs likely not cracking freezing for much of the area, and only making it into the mid 30s south & east. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020 A dome of surface high pressure over the southern Great Lakes will be in place for the early part of Saturday due to upper level ridging taking place. The lower levels will warm nicely and mix down to the surface on Saturday, allowing temperatures to rise quickly as well on the order of potentially 10-15 degrees higher in comparison to Friday afternoon highs. The WAA regime will be taking place ahead of a developing mid-latitude cyclone across the central CONUS/Great Plains area Saturday afternoon further upstream of the CWA. The GFS/NAM/EURO are hinting at a merger of sorts with two separate surface Lows combining between early Saturday and late Saturday night. Currently looks to be a the Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet enhancement near one another causing the surface Low to deepen over the Great Lakes. The GFS and NAM have swapped solutions over the last 24 hours between previous 12Z runs. The GFS now has a 979mb surface Low by 0Z Sunday evening, whereas the EURO is advertising a 984mb surface low. Both Low centers will deepen the most over Ontario. Presently, the analysis is showing rain as the main precipitation type to start the weather event over the CWA, with the surface cold front bringing the colder air behind it. This will transition the cold rain to a mixed bag of precipitation, and then switching to light snow showers by Sunday night into Monday. Models have backed off on the potential for heavier snow totals, but lake effect may still be something to keep an eye out for once we get closer to the weekend where the high resolution guidance can assist with a forecast package. Euro model hinting at lingering snow showers through Tuesday morning. From there, upper level ridge begins to take hold and create a quiet weather pattern with warmer temperatures starting Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 636 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020 Conditions will improve slightly at KIWD this evening as lake-effect snow showers begin to transition into the area. However, cigs for KIWD should remain in MVFR due to lake-effect clouds until tomorrow morning as the lake-effect ends in Ironwood. Conditions at KCMX will remain in IFR for the next couple hours as the cold front pushes through. However, behind this front, expect slightly improved conditions as snowfall transitions to lake-effect snow (instead of being caused by the cold front). Cigs will remain MVFR until the afternoon when the lake-effect snow/clouds die off. KSAW`s conditions will quickly deteriorate over the next couple of hours as the cold front pushes through. Expect rain initially, then a transition to snow over the next couple of hours. As the precip type changes, expect conditions to drop to MVFR, then IFR tonight. Late tonight, expect conditions to improve to MVFR, as only lake-effect clouds will remain behind the cold front. By the end of the TAF period tomorrow, expect all terminals to return to VFR conditions; KSAW and KIWD will return to VFR conditions by mid-morning tomorrow. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 403 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020 A cold front will pass over Lake Superior this afternoon. Behind the front, winds remain near 20 knots across the west and 25 to 30 knots across the east through midday Friday. High pressure will bring generally calm winds through Saturday morning below 20 knots, but a developing storm system will approach the Upper Peninsula, winds increase from the south to around 30 knots across the east half of Superior Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. An associated cold front passes over the lake Sunday as winds veer to the NW, increasing to gales to around 40 knots across the east and 35 to 40 knots across the west. These gales persist across the east half through Monday afternoon, before falling into the low 20-knot range Monday night for the east half through the rest of the fcst period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJC LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TAP MARINE...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
630 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 .UPDATE...Changes were made to the forecast to add wind advisories for the Lower Columbia Basin, Blue Mtn Foothills, the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys, Simcoe Highlands, the eastern Columbia River Gorge, and North Central Oregon. Areas of blowing and drifting of snow was also added to the mountain zones. Although models have backed off on the winds compared to several days ago, the tight pressure gradients will cause very windy conditions to develop in the advisory areas. HRRR and other high resolution models are showing 10m winds around 25 kts, and there are hints of isentropic descent that could bring 50kt winds at 850mb near the surface. No changes were made to the current winter storm warnings and winter advisories. Wister && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2020/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...A weather system will move into the area overnight initially as a weak warm front followed by a cold frontal passage on Friday. This system will bring some significant snow accumulations in the mountains where winter warning and advisories will be in effect. Will also see some increasing southerly winds overnight warranting a windy advisory for the southern Grande Ronde Valley. There could be some blowing and drifting snow issues late tonight and early Friday in the southern Grande Ronde valley. The cold frontal passage Friday will bring some breezy to windy conditions across the entire forecast area through Friday night then decreasing slowly Saturday. Precipitation will taper off to showers Saturday mainly over the mountains. Another system will arrive from the west late Saturday and overnight as a warm front. Precipitation will be snow above 2000-3000 feet initially Saturday afternoon and then rising overnight especially in central Oregon. Still there will be some more snow accumulation before changing to rain going into Sunday. More highlights may be needed for this event but will hold off on any until current highlights have ended. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...models in fairly good agreement for the long term. Moist westerly flow for Sunday with mountain rain/snow showers expected with mainly dry and locally breezy conditions in the basin. Highs 40s to low 50s. Rain and high mountain snow chances increase Sunday night into Monday with strong warm air advection over the region and plume of deep Pac moisture working onshore and lifting north. Precip expected to end south to north Monday night as ridging builds in. Flow turns more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge shifts east as another upper level trough/low approaches the coast. Mild temps for Mon/Tue with highs generally in the 50s. Some breezy southerly winds possible, esp in the Grande Ronde valley and the foothills of the Blues/Wallowas. The next system is expected to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday. Models showing mainly rain and high mountain snow overspreading the region Wednesday afternoon as deep Pacific moisture working from the south and front passing through. Precip expected to become more showery Thursday into Friday as the upper trough is expected to work overhead. Snow levels remain fairly high only expected to drop down to 4000-5500ft. Slightly cooler Wed/Thu with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions with increasing mid to high level cloudiness today. Winds will be less than 10kts as well. An approaching system will overspread showers tonight with light to moderate rain expected for most of tomorrow. MVFR conditions possible, esp as CIGS drop down to 2-3kft. Mountain obscuration likely. Winds will increase 16-22g24-30kt tomorrow. Pockets of strong low-level wind shear possible starting late tonight, esp near BDN/RDM and PDT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 37 51 35 47 / 60 90 30 10 ALW 38 51 37 49 / 60 90 40 10 PSC 39 54 39 52 / 50 60 20 10 YKM 32 51 32 50 / 30 60 20 10 HRI 38 55 39 52 / 40 70 20 10 ELN 29 45 31 44 / 40 60 30 10 RDM 35 49 30 44 / 20 90 60 40 LGD 32 42 31 40 / 40 100 70 30 GCD 35 43 30 38 / 30 100 70 40 DLS 39 51 39 50 / 50 90 50 30 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ509. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ041- 044-507-508-510. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ049-050-506. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ502-503. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM PST Friday for ORZ049. WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for WAZ520. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday for WAZ024- 026>029-521. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for WAZ030. && $$ SHORT TERM...85 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...84
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
820 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east to the coast tonight. Another cold front will move across the region late Friday. High pressure will build into the region for late Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move across the region late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 820 PM Thursday... The heavy precip has shifted just E of the forecast area, in conjunction with the leading cold front. A secondary W-E backdoor boundary, noted on 0.2 deg radar imagery dropping southward through the Triangle (and having pushed just south of the Triad), is accompanied by a surge of gusty northeasterly winds and designates the leading edge of the cooler and drier air, with temps/dewpoints quickly dropping up to 10 deg behind the boundary. This front should continue its southward push through NC tonight, although it may slow or stall across our E and S depending on the influence of TS Eta as it tracks northeastward just off the Carolina coast tonight/Fri. GOES water vapor imagery shows much drier air aloft over W and central NC and across much of SC (W and SW of Eta), although considerable moisture persists below about 750 mb, leading to patchy light rain and drizzle in recent hours across our N and W. The recent runs of the HRRR show this continuing overnight, especially across the N and W CWA, so have added this to the forecast, with low overcast skies. While no substantial additional rainfall will occur for the remainder of the night, spotty residual flooding issues persist over the area. Will continue areal flood warnings to account for the lingering hazardous travel, particularly on roads near swollen creeks. Numerous river flood warnings remain in effect as well (see hydrology section below). Expect lows to range from around 50 far NW to upper 50s SE. -GIH Earlier discussion from 300 PM: A deep plume of tropical moisture combined with an approaching upper-level trough, a cold front and an associated mid-level fgen and robust divergence aloft resulted in a widespread area of moderate to heavy rain that moved across central NC during the past 24 hours. Storm total rainfall amounts will generally average between 2 to 5 inches across the western Piedmont including the Triad with some locally higher. East of U.S. Route 1 across the Triangle, Coastal Plain and Sandhills, amounts will average between 4 to 8 inches with a few locations across the northern Coastal Plain, along and east of I-95 exceeding 10 inches. As of mid afternoon, the cold front has pushed south and east of the RAH CWA with surface dew points ranging in the lower to mid 60s in central NC. The back edge of the main shield continues to push east. The widespread rain will end shortly at KRDU and it should end near KRWI and KFAY by 4pm. The very heavy rain has resulted in widespread reports of flash flooding, road closures, and water rescues across much of the area. Even though the steady/widespread rain has ended in the Triad and should end soon in the Triangle, the threat from continued run off and flooding will persist. See the hydrology section below for more information. While the widespread rain should be over across all of central NC by around 5pm, widespread clouds are expected to continue into the overnight with perhaps some areas of spotty light rain or drizzle this evening, especially across the east. A northeasterly low level flow and the transport of cooler air will result in lows falling into the lower to mid 50s by Friday morning. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Widespread clouds are expected to start the day on Friday as an in- situ CAD airmass will be established across the area. The stable air mass will initially weaken during the morning and then be scoured out as a secondary cold front moves across the area during the late morning and early afternoon as the remnants of tropical cyclone Eta moves up along but just off the coast. Highs on Friday will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s but some of the typically cooler locations will have some lows in the upper 30s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Highlights of the long term include... - Slight chance of showers on Sunday. - Much cooler early to mid-next week. - Patchy frost possible in the mornings next week. Saturday: Upper-level ridging over FL will create west to southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east throughout the day and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday night. This will switch northerly surface flow to easterly by the end of the day, and help increase dewpoints from the 30s up to the 40s. Highs will be in the 60s due to weak cold air damming, and lows will be in the 40s. Sunday: Upper-level high pressure to the south will weaken as an upper-level trough moves across the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. A lack of moisture and instability will keep the majority of rain to our north, however isolated showers could move across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The surface cold front will move across the region Sunday night and begin cold air advection over the area as winds switch from southwesterly to northwesterly. Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, with highest temperatures across the SE due to warm air advection ahead of the front. Lows will be in the 40s. Monday through Thursday: NW flow aloft will persist through the period, with a slight increase in heights each day as upper-level high pressure builds from the Desert Southwest to the Southeast. This will create dry weather across the region for early to mid-next week. Surface high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand across the East Coast early next week, maintaining cold air advection across the region. The high then weakens Tuesday as another surface high builds from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley, helping to maintain cold air advection into central NC. Highs will be in the 50s through the period, and lows in the mid to upper 30s will create patchy frost in the early mornings. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 740 PM Thursday... Currently all terminals are sub-VFR as the heavy showers have exited the region. There still remains a few lingering light showers over the area. Tonight, conditions are expected to remain sub-VFR through daybreak Friday and will improve to VFR conditions with some high cirrus clouds by afternoon. Low stratus and some fog will continue into the overnight and early morning hours. Winds overnight will be light and NE then becoming NW and a bit stronger (5-10kts) by late morning. Wind gusts in the Southeast and along the Coastal Plain will be 10-15kts in the afternoon dying down by the evening. Outlook: High pressure will build into the region for the weekend with fair weather and VFR conditions. A cold front will move across the region Sunday into Sunday night with a limited chance of a shower and perhaps some MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, fair weather is expected into early next week. -Blaes && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 PM Thursday... Significant rainfall occurred across central NC over the last 24-48 hours. As of 2pm, amounts have ranged from 3 to 5 inches over the Triad, with Greensboro Intl Apt receiving 4.10 inches. Further east across the Piedmont and into the Triangle, 3-4 inches have been reported, with 4.18 inches here at our NWS office at NCSU and 2.97 at RDU. The highest amounts have been across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain, especially along/east of I-95, with Rocky Mount Wilson Airport reporting 9.40 inches over the last 48 hours. The impressive rainfall totals has resulted in widespread river flooding. Minor flooding has already been occurring along the Neuse, Tar, Haw, Deep, and the Yadkin rivers. Additional flooding is expected downstream along these basins and at the Roanoke and Cape Fear basins. Major flooding is expected to occur on the Haw and Neuse river basins. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Blaes SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...CA/Blaes HYDROLOGY...ACK