Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
A little bit of everything in the forecast for the rest of the day
through tonight, all thanks to the an upper level trough/sfc low
tracking northeast to across the northern great lakes later tonight.
1) Precipitation: rain to freezing rain will persist into the
evening for most of the area, with lack of ice in the cloud playing
the key role in keeping what falls as liquid. Northwest-southeast
running x-sections show an eroding of the low level warmth, and
expect a transition to mostly snow (as ice is introduced) within the
deformation region associated with the sfc low. Could see some minor
snow accums from southeast mn into northcentral wi before the pcpn
shield lifts northeast.
Meanwhile, sfc wetbulb temps via the RAP and HRRR hover close to or
above freezing through the period of pcpn, with similar look to
Bufkit soundings. MRMS road temps also holding above freezing. If
this scenario continues to play out this way, it could/would
mitigate impacts of freezing rain to mostly elevated, cold surfaces.
However, with cold air continuing to funnel in during the night time
hours, wet (untreated) sfcs could become icy. Something to note for
morning travelers on Veternan`s Day (Wed).
Will continue winter weather adv through 6 pm. Will have to monitor
close in case temps fall a degree or two colder than expected -
could have to expand into northern WI.
2) Storms: cold front has slid east of the local area, but could
wobble a bit back to the west as upper level trough lifts northeast,
getting some negative tilt as it does. Sfc low still progged to lift
across far southwest WI, and could build upwards of 500-750 MUCAPE.
That said, RAP soundings show awfully skinny profiles when it comes
to instability - not conducive to stronger updrafts. Silly amount of
winds shear though, in excess 30 kts in 0-1km and 50kts 0-3km, and
if storms sneak into the local area, a few strong to severe would be
possible (although could shear themselves out too). Higher risk will
be the east where greater instability will be available. As of now,
can`t completely rule out a severe risk for that sliver of southwest
WI - with meso models continuing to favor through 4 pm.
3) Wind: with the system strengthening as it slides through, so will
the sfc pressure gradient. Both the NAM and RAP show a ramp up in
winds by 00z for locations west of the mississippi river, sliding
into western/northwest WI as the evening wears on. Some suggestions
winds could gust as high as 50 mph, although mostly over northwest
WI where terrain would not be as favorable as the open areas over
southeast mn/northeast ia. Seems a little ambitious given the time
of day also, not likely to mix down those kind of winds. Will
increase winds for tonight, but hold off on any wind advisory for
the moment. Certainly something to watch.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Quick moving zonal flow favored by the GFS and EC through the rest
of the week, into next week. Gone are our 70 degree days with highs
mostly around or below the mid Nov normals anticipated.
The GFS and EC not showing much indication for any impactful
systems, pcpn-wise, into early next week, although do have a couple
periods where precipitation is looking more likely. First is Thu
evening when both drive a bit of shortwave energy out of the
southern Rockies, sliding it across the Great Lakes. Temps, timing
of the system would support rain/snow at outset, mostly snow for
nighttime hours. Saturation would be an issue with NAM currently the
less bullish of the models with deepening the moisture ahead of the
shortwave. If saturation is there, could see an 1 (or 2 inches) of
snow across the north.
The second, elongated shortwave of note would drive east across the
plains and through the upper/mid mississippi river valleys for Sat.
Somewhat milder, more moist air climbs north ahead of the shortwave,
and some showers (rain to rain/snow mix) would be the result. No
instability of note at this time, keeping thunder chances low/none
locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
The precipitation will move out of the TAF sites around 11.04z.
KRST will continue to see a mix of freezing rain and snow. Snow
accumulations will be up to a tenth of an inch and ice
accumulations will be up to a couple hundredths of an inch. KLSE
will see mainly rain. Skies will gradually clear overnight with
VFR conditions expected after 11.09z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ079-
086-087-094-095.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region Wednesday morning.
High pressure will build into the region late Wednesday and
will remain in control across the area through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Radar is now showing areas of showers over western Ohio into
eastern Indiana with the main line of showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front over central Indiana. The line of storms
appears to be weakening somewhat along the southern flank with
time. Rap model suggesting much of the rain that the forecast
area receives will be with the pre-frontal activity over western
Ohio at this time and then a brief period along the front. So,
it appears much of the rain should be over the eastern portions
of the forecast area and then exit before the morning commute
with drier air pushing in from the west tomorrow morning. Winds
were gusting into the 30-35 knot range over Indiana this evening
and the local forecast area should see winds gradually
increasing through the night ahead of the front. Still need to
monitor for much higher wind gusts with the showers due to the
fairly strong low level jet at 3000 feet where winds were
approaching 60 knots. Rainfall amounts should be on the light
side with highest localized areas seeing up to a half an inch of
rain. Current forecast looks reasonable so will hold off on any
major changes this evening.
A potent shortwave trough over the central CONUS and resultant
surface low will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes
tonight.
Strong cold air advection will result in an immediate drop of
5-10 degrees with the cold front, followed by a gradual decrease
in temperature through the day tomorrow, with a slight bump
upwards during the afternoon for areas that receive some
sunshine. High pressure begins building in from the west
Wednesday night, centered over Indiana/Ohio by Thursday morning.
Clearing skies and light winds should result in decent
radiational cooling Wednesday night, allowing temperatures to
drop in the 30s, which believe or not, is close to normal for
this time of the year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will expand northeast across the region on Thursday
with strong subsidence. We could see scattered cu off Lake Erie on
Thursday but should clear quickly. Temperatures will be seasonal for
mid November with highs in the lower 50s.
The upper level pattern will feature a series of shortwaves lifting
out of the Plains followed by the trough finally traversing the
Great Lakes Region Thursday night and Friday. At the surface, a
trough will cross the Upper Great Lakes on Friday will little impact
except some passing clouds and weak cold advection into Friday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although model spread begins to increase over the weekend, the
general pattern will feature a shortwave trough lifting out of
the Plains across the Great Lakes on Saturday. Surface low
pressure will lift north across the Upper Midwest, lifting a
warm front north of the area on Saturday night. Chances of
precipitation gradually return Saturday night into Sunday with
temperatures pushing back up above normal into the lower 60s on
Sunday. Despite timing differences, the trend by early next week
will be for a stronger upper level trough to develop across the
eastern Great Lakes. Cold advection will begin with the passage
of a cold front Sunday night and continue through Monday with
possible lake effect rain showers developing on Monday and
transitioning to snow showers on Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Conditions will be deteriorating overnight ahead of a cold front
as ceilings and visibilities lower with the showers and possible
thunderstorms. Cold front is expected to move east across the
area overnight and reach the western portions of the area around
1 AM and be east of the eastern portions by 7 AM. Some lingering
showers and lower ceilings and visibilities can be expected
after the cold front passes to the east but conditions will
improve fairly quickly west to east. Winds should become fairly
gusty to 25 to 30 knots across the area with some higher gusts
in the showers. Otherwise, winds diminish behind the cold front
for tomorrow. Thunderstorm activity should be decreasing with
time as the front moves during the night hours.
Outlook...Non-VFR with showers possible Saturday evening into
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 knots on Lake Erie tonight
ahead of a cold front. Given the offshore flow and strongest winds
focused towards the Canadian side of the lake, no Small Craft
Advisories have been issued. As winds shift to the west on Wednesday
with a passage of a cold front, waves will increase down the long
fetch of the lake to 3 to 5 feet. The nearshore waters east of
Cleveland will be choppy but not anticipating a Small Craft Advisory
given the higher waves remaining in the open waters.
High pressure will build east across Lake Erie on Thursday with
southwest winds becoming northwest on Friday with the passage of a
weak trough. A short window of higher waves will likely result in
Small Craft Advisories Friday afternoon and evening from Willowick
to Erie, PA.
Light winds on Saturday will transition to southerly winds of 15-20
knots Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold front will cross
Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday with westerly winds increasing to
20-30 knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the (previous) record highs (and what year the record
was set) at the six climate sites.
Tuesday, November 10
Akron-Canton - 70 (1998)
Cleveland - 71 (1998)
Erie - 68 (1949 and 1939)
Mansfield - 68 (1977 and 1949)
Toledo - 68 (1999 and 1949)
Youngstown - 68 (1949 and 1931)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Saunders
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC/Sefcovic
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Light returns across our counties in west central MN mainly
associated with virga with drier air undercutting the activity
from the north. However along the far edge of our CWA there is
still likely some snowfall reaching the surface, and Staples, MN
has been reporting snow with vis 1/2sm. Transition of the band in
that area eastward will continue within the next few hours and
the window for accumulation will be small (in addition to the
amount of our area impacted). Monitoring trends, but so far it
still seems like max accumulations around 1-2" in along our CWA
line will be possible (in line with HREF probs trends), with the
vast majority of locations in our southeastern counties receiving
much less this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Impacts will be minimal through the short term portion of the
forecast.
Cloud cover continues to increase across the far southern Red
River Valley into west central Minnesota. So far, it has been mid
clouds, with the closest snow still down near Brookings South
Dakota and Marshall Minnesota. The latest HRRR runs barely graze
our southeast FA with any snow this evening, showing it staying
further east. However, there remains enough support from other
models in maintaining less than an inch of snow in the Wadena to
Park Rapids corridor. For the rest of the FA, clear to partly
cloudy skies will remain. The light surface winds should switch to
the south/southwest after midnight and increase a bit, especially
along and west of the Valley. Looking for these winds to turn to
the west-southwest on Wednesday, and become pretty breezy again.
A weak little clipper system will also track along the Canadian
border Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may bring a dusting
of snow to areas north of the highway 2 corridor.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
The long term will be quiet with very little, if any, impactful
weather. High pressure dominates the remainder of the work week as a
frigid Canadian airmass sinks into the northern tier.
The coldest temperatures of the period will be Friday morning with
single digits for much of the area (low teens in west central MN).
This will be followed by the warmest temperatures of the period on
Saturday, with highs generally in the 40s as southeast winds kick up
in the afternoon. A cold front then passes through the area Saturday
night, bringing chances of light snow mainly east of the valley.
GEFS mean precipital water appears to be about normal for this time
of year and less than one-half inch, so snow accumulations are
expected to be minimal with a low threat for impactful weather. The
snow will generally occur Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday
afternoon will have breezy, northwest winds as cold air advection
returns.
High pressure returns early next week, and there is a signal for
above normal temperatures returning mid-week, but no where near the
record highs we recently experienced.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Any light snow this evening should remain south and east of TAF
sites as a system moves through southern MN. VFR conditions
should continue through Wednesday morning across eastern ND and
northwest MN, with MVFR ceilings spreading into northeast ND and
possibly far northwest MN by Wednesday afternoon as an upper
system moves into the region. This could also bring light snow to
parts of the region, but this is more likely to remain north of
Highway 2 and away from TAF sites. Winds will remain light (less
than 10kt) through the TAF period with variable conditions
eventually prevailing from the southwest Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2020
A mostly dry forecast on tap for the short term period, with the
exception of low probabilities of a wintry mix late Friday night
in eastern areas.
For tonight, a weak surface low in southeast Colorado tries to
advect moisture westward overnight. HRRR and GFS Lamp guidance
shows fog developing along the Arkansas River, and possibly as far
north as Cheyenne County Colorado and Greeley County Kansas. Dew
points in those areas currently very low, in the teens, and wind
direction has a light downslope component, so confidence is low
that fog will develop, but will monitor. Low temperatures will be
in the teens and 20s.
Zonal flow aloft will prevail through Thursday with a shortwave
trough forecast to move through the northern plains on Wednesday
and Thursday. That system will be too far north for precipitation
chances, though it will push a cold front through early Thursday.
Expect gusty northwest winds behind the front through Thursday
afternoon. GFS a little more aggressive with wind speeds compared
with other models, with mixing heights suggesting 30-40kt gusts
possible. However, the NAM/ECMWF show much lighter winds. May need
to bump up the winds a little for Thursday since these fronts
typically do produce wind more often than not. Temperatures
Wednesday will be in the 50s with only a slight cool down on
Thursday behind the front, upper 40s to lower 50s. Low
temperatures will be in the 20s both days.
Upper flow will turn more southwesterly on Friday ahead of the
next system approaching the Rockies. It will come through as an
open wave Friday night. Appears to be just enough lift and
moisture late Friday night in far eastern areas, McCook to Hill
City, for low probabilities of rain, snow or a rain/snow mix, as
temperatures drop into the low to middle 30s. Accumulations, if
any, would be very light. High temperatures on Friday bump back
up to the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1226 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2020
Dry conditions with near to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the extended forecast. Low relative
humidity values and breezy conditions will cause elevated to near-
critical fire weather concerns heading into the start of next week.
The forecast period starts out with an upper trough over Montana and
a shortwave trough moving through the High Plains. Flow will become
zonal by Saturday evening. High temperatures will range from the
upper 50s to mid-60s. Winds may gust to around 25mph at times in
the afternoon, particularly west of the Kansas-Colorado border.
Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to low
20s. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the
afternoon. Dry conditions will persist overnight with lows ranging
from the mid-20s to mid-30s.
An upper trough will push into Nebraska as it shifts slowly to the
east on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the Tri-State
region. High temperatures will be slightly cooler, primarily in the
50s. Low relative humidity values and gusty winds in the afternoon
will create the potential for near-critical fire weather
conditions, particularly along and west of the Kansas-Colorado
border where relative humidity values will be in the teens to low
20s and winds will gust over 25mph. Lows will dip into the 20s.
An upper ridge over the Western CONUS will push east over the
Rockies of Colorado and the Bighorns of Wyoming on Monday, coming
over the Central High Plains on Tuesday. Expect a warming trend
through Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible both days.
Relative humidity values will be slightly higher than on Sunday
and winds will not be as strong.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2020
For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions through the period. Light and
variable winds are expected through the night with an expectation
of slowly backing to the south and southeast through the day
Wednesday at speeds approaching 10kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...AW A
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
628 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
South winds will continue to increase into this evening ahead of a
strong cold front. South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 40 to 45 mph are possible. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase later this evening as the cold front
approaches. A few of the showers may produce wind gusts in excess of
50 mph. Rain showers will diminish from west to east overnight as
the cold front moves through, with a transition to mainly dry
conditions with seasonable temperatures through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
Vigorous upper level short wave across eastern Nebraska is beginning
to acquire negative tilt as it lifts northeast into western Iowa
this afternoon. Steady uptick in linear convective activity past
several hours as this short wave kicks out to the northeast. RAP
mesoanalysis indicates a narrow axis of 1000+ J/kg sfc based CAPE
immediately ahead of the surface front. The line has taken on QLCS
characteristics over past few hours. Expecting strongest
convection in this line to migrate northeast coincident with
stronger upstream forcing lifting to the northeast. Still
expecting some diminishment in strength of this line as it enters
local area, although still some concern for brief window of
surface/near surface based instability across NW Indiana early
this evening. Even with weak sfc/near sfc based instability,
robust and strengthening shear profiles (50 knots effective
shear) may be enough for isolated severe potential to affect areas
across western third of the forecast area this evening. Main risk
would be isolated damaging winds although cannot completely rule
out brief tornado given magnitudes of 0-3km line normal shear
around 30 knots. Isolated severe threat should be mainly in the
00Z-05Z window. A few rain showers may persist behind the front
overnight, as lagging low level frontal zone and low level
moisture gradient slows its eastward progression in response to
stronger mid/upper level forcing lifting northeast across the
northern Great Lakes.
In addition to the convective potential this evening, wind gusts
will be the other big concern. Decent mixing ahead of the front has
allowed for some 35 mph gusts across the area past few hours and
expecting continued magnitude of these gusts remainder of the
afternoon, possibly increasing into the 40 to 45 mph across the
west. Some brief potential of 40 to 45 mph gusts may also exist with
frontal passage in the 02Z-05Z period as fairly strong pressure rise
surge builds across the southern Great Lakes. Given track of above
forcing, most preferred location for higher end gusts of 45+ mph
still appears to be across NW half of the area, although any
location across N IN/S Lower MI/NW Ohio may be susceptible to these
gusts with any showers mixing winds to the sfc. Will maintain
current wind advisory headline as is, although this may need to be
expanded southward and will continue to monitor observational
trends.
Winds diminish late tonight into early Wednesday with decreasing
clouds and more seasonable conditions setting up.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
Upper flow deamplifies somewhat for Thursday as next Pacific
trough approaches. This short wave will be moisture starved and
will keep dry conditions going through Thursday night. Pattern
remains very progressive into Friday/Saturday with indications in
medium range models of next Pacific wave drawing up more
appreciable low level moisture by Saturday. Have maintained mid-
range chance PoPs for this period. Otherwise, precip chances look
minimal after the weekend with upper ridging building once again
across western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
Dwindling instability through the late evening, though upstream
line appears sufficiently organized and with high bulk deep layer
shear had timed the line of storms into the KSBN region starting
around 02 UTC. Anticipate further decay as line approaches KFWA
with shra arrival around 04 UTC. Ramped low level flow/gusts
remain significant in advance of the convective line this evening.
Large scale subsidence behind cold frontal passage with
lessening/veering gradient winds as Plains ridge edges into
southwest portion of Upper Great Lakes by the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for
INZ003>009-012>016.
MI...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
843 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
.Update...
Reduced PoPs to account for current radar trends and latest
convective-allowing model guidance. RAP prognostic data hints at a
wedge of drier boundary layer air, which could be responsible for
quelling activity in the near-term. No other major changes to the
forecast at this time.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 644 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020/
Aviation (00Z TAFs)...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the TAF sites this
evening. Convection has waned across the area, with low formation
chances for the remainder of the evening. Winds will predominately
be out of the ESE/SE with sustained winds 10-15kt and gusts up to
25-30kts possible. Brief MVFR conditions could be experienced due
to residual cloud cover, with CIGs 015-025 possible.
Prev Discussion... /issued 357 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020/
Short Term (Rest of Today through Wednesday)...
Eta remains nearly stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, just north
of the western tip of Cuba. The flow around Eta, combined with
high pressure to our east will keep South Florida engulfed within
rich tropical moisture, while also supporting breezy to
occasionally gusty southeasterly winds. This is noted in the
10.12Z Miami sounding with PWATs above the 90th percentile at 1.94
inches and 30-35 knots through 700mb. With bands emanating from
Eta forecast to move across already saturated areas, flooding from
heavy rainfall continues to be the primary concern today with
isolated stronger gusts also possible.
Eta should gradually begin gaining latitude tonight into
Wednesday across the Gulf of Mexico. As it does, the steering flow
should slowly veer out of the south across South Florida, keeping
sufficient moisture through the atmospheric column and into the
potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
While coverage could be a little less than today if Eta
strengthens and consolidates it`s rainbands closer to the center,
have kept scattered PoPs in the forecast for now.
As far as the actual forecast track for Tropical Storm Eta, the
latest 12Z guidance has been trending slightly eastward. If this
trend continues, this could pose a threat to the Gulf coast region.
The main impacts to monitor are wind speeds near tropical storm
force, strong wave action, and torrential downpours within any
rainbands moving ashore. At the present time however, the
evolution and forecast track of Eta have tropical storm force
wind speed probabilities are currently less than 10%. Be sure to
keep up with the latest forecast changes, as there is still
uncertainty in the forecast track of Tropical Storm Eta.
Long Term (Thursday through Monday)...
As Thursday approaches, the latest computer model guidance will
keep Eta close enough to keep the wind flow out of the south
southeast. With this wind flow, deep tropical moisture will
continue to advect into the region from the south. This will
allow for the chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue
during this time frame. With the ground across the region
remaining saturated from recent heavy rainfall, any additional
rainfall could aggravate any on going flooding issues. This will
need to be monitored as the week progresses.
By the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the latest
computer model guidance is showing signs of a drier air mass
moving into the region during this time frame. Whatever remains of
Eta will be far enough away from the region allowing for an area
of high pressure in the western Atlantic to build westward over
South Florida. This will allow for the chances and coverage of
showers to be minimal through the upcoming weekend. By early next
week, both of the GFS and the ECMWF show a cold front moving into
the southeastern portion of the country and into northern and
central Florida. As it moves southward, the chances of showers
could increase out ahead of this approaching front during the
very end of this forecast period. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses.
Marine...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic and Tropical Storm Eta in
the Gulf of Mexico will work together to keep a tight pressure
gradient across the region. Thus, east to southeasterly breezy to
gusty winds will continue today before gradually veering out of
the south tonight as Eta moves northward through late week.
While Atlantic seas will slowly decrease over the period, the
Gulf seas and a southwesterly swell will rapidly increase tonight
through mid week, as Eta moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
By late week, as Eta moves further away, the aforementioned Gulf
seas and swell will gradually decrease. Therefore, the SCA has
been extended for all of South Florida until Thursday, except for
the Lake Okeechobee, where it will end on Wednesday evening and
the Atlantic waters will by end of the week.
Beach Forecast...
The High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches will
continue through the remainder of the week with breezy onshore
flow. For the Gulf coast beaches, the High risk of rip currents
continues through Thursday, due to southwest swells coming in from
Tropical Storm Eta.
Additionally, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the
beaches of Collier County with the possibility of some minor
coastal flooding during high tides through Wednesday. This
statement could be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory or even a
High Surf Advisory depending how close the southwesterly swell
from Tropical Storm Eta comes to the coastline.
Hydrology...
Grounds remain sufficiently saturated from the heavy rainfall
received from Tropical Storm ETA. Rainfall totals since Sunday
include: 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across most of the western
portions of South Florida, except for Southeast Hendry county
where 6 to 9 inches have fallen. The east coast metro areas have
seen 4 to 6 inches of rainfall since Sunday, except for metro
Broward, Northern metro Miami-Dade and Southern metro Palm Beach
Counties where 7 to 11 inches of rainfall have fallen with even
isolated areas in western metro Broward County seeing up to 18
inches of rainfall.
Resultant flood waters will slowly recede, however, sufficient
moisture should remain in place across South Florida the next
several days, and any additional rainfall that moves over these
areas will be capable of producing flooding conditions. Therefore,
the Flood Watch will remain in effect for all of South Florida
today and be extended through Wednesday for the east coast metro
areas.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 85 77 85 77 / 60 60 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 85 79 86 78 / 60 60 40 40
Miami 85 78 85 78 / 70 60 40 40
Naples 85 75 85 75 / 60 30 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-
173.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ069.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ610.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.
&&
Update...09/Bhatti
Short Term/Marine/Aviation/Beach/Hydrology...11/HVN and 09/Bhatti
Long Term...55/CWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
929 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous shortwave
lifting ne across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and satellite
presentation certainly indicates strong forcing associated with this
feature as a well-defined deformation/comma head has been organizing
n and nw of the mid-level low analyzed by the RAP near the Twin
Cities. This represents the snow part of the system (mdt snowfall at
times) across eastern MN into extreme nw WI. Well to the e, well-
defined warm conveyor is represented by a shra/tsra extending from
eastern IL/western IN n into eastern Upper MI. Between these 2
areas, mid-level dry slot is surging nne thru WI, with a min in pcpn
coverage noted ahead of it across n central WI into w and central
Upper MI. Suspect the organized convection thru the warm conveyor
has limited a better pull of moisture back toward the deformation
area, and thus the local min of pcpn ahead of the mid-level dry
surge.
No major changes have been made to the fcst thus far this evening.
Main change has been to gradually cut back qpf across mainly the
central fcst area based on trends thru the late aftn/evening. Will
probably see some expansion of mixed pcpn across western Upper MI
and shra across central Upper MI over the next few hrs, but seems
unlikely that there will be the development of significant,
organized, widespread pcpn prior to mid-level drying, Thus, will
continue a decreasing qpf trend with forthcoming updates as long as
radar/satellite presentation supports that idea. Overnight, edge of
the deformation pcpn shield will brush the far western fcst area as
it shifts nne. That will provide the opportunity for snow
accumuations, probably on the order of 1 to 3 inches, maybe isold 4.
Will let ongoing winter wx advy headlines ride given potential for
some pcpn expansion over the next few hrs. Wind advy over the far e
looks on track as axis of low-level wind max on the se side of the
system brushes that area. In addition, pres rise/fall couplet will
be better aligned in that area for the isallobaric wind to more
directly enhance the gradient wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020
Alot going on in the short term with a pretty dynamic setup across
the region. GOES water vapor channels sync well with RAP 500mb
analysis of broad troughing over the central CONUS lifting into the
Great Lakes region. Within this region, frontal axis draped across
the region shifted eastward through the CWA this morning, continuing
the rain showers across the region. This, coupled with temps largely
in the 30s has given the central and east a pretty dreary day. In
the west, many of the radar returns weren`t hitting the ground, so
its just been a chilly, overcast day there so far.
To the south, surface low pressure developing at the base of the
trough will lift through the region. Favorable jet dynamics will
allow for the trough to take on a slight negative tilt while
deepening the surface low. This will create a pretty interesting
forecast period late this afternoon into the overnight hours as
additional precip filters into the region. Areas in the east should
experience primarily rain, but model soundings highlight a healthy
warm nose atop subfreezing temps in the west. Looking at the
guidance, confidence is high for freezing rain with widespread ice
accumulation of 0.10"-0.15" being possible in the western counties.
Some locally higher amounts will be possible before transitioning to
snow late tonight. As the low lifts through, strong southerly winds
are expected to develop in the east, allowing for strong winds to
build waves off Lake Michigan and cause some lakeshore flooding
concerns for Schoolcraft. Along the shorelines and inland into
northern Schoolcraft and Luce counties, a wind advisory was issued
given the potential for 45mph wind gusts. Conditions should begin
improving by the afternoon, but highs should only top out in the 30s
with lakeshore regions near 40F.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 447 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020
Upper level H5 shortwave trough will propagate over northern Great
Lakes and Ontario from 0Z Thursday into Thursday morning. A 1008mb
surface low will develop over Ontario and help usher in a cold front
for Thursday. Precipitation will likely start out as rain across
a majority of the CWA and transition to a rain/snow mix, with the
western zones having a temporary period of all snow behind the
cold front. The warm air aloft looks to stay in play however, and
this will cause the precipitation to changeover to rain in several
areas before nightfall. The potential for sleet and freezing rain
over the highest terrain is possible at this point of inspection.
Total precipitation amounts looks to be under a quarter inch of
liquid on Thursday.
Behind the cold front on Friday, temperatures will remain on the
chilly side, albeit seasonal for near mid November across the Upper
Peninsula. Light mixed precipitation appear to hang around through
mid morning on Friday.
The next couple of weather systems to impact the region that are
signaled by the medium range guidance looks to occur this coming
weekend. The first wave of precipitation will happen most likely on
Saturday. The timing and placement of the first H5 trough are
slightly different, and thus any precipitation amounts are
speculative at best. The second upper level shortwave trough to
approach the region will happen on Sunday. This weather system has
the potential to have more energy associated with it. Model
consensus is slightly better with the handling of timing and
placement of the potential 995mb surface low over the Great Lakes
region. The Euro/GFS models are slightly aggressive with QPF and
snow totals, mostly across the western forecast zones where it is
advertising 6+ inches. Being that it is 5 days away, the forecast
will likely change between now and then, but it does look
promising for a return of snow cover to the western regions of the
CWA.
Upper level zonal flow and weak ridging begins to take place from
Monday through the middle portion next week. This presents the
opportunity for a return of dry conditions for the area, with
slightly cooler temps that are seasonal for mid-November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020
Low pres over sw WI will track ne, crossing eastern Lake Superior
overnight. To the w of the low track at KIWD/KCMX, an ocnl wintry
mix of pcpn, but likely mainly -fzra, will occur early with pcpn
changing over to just -sn, probably late this evening. With the
pcpn, expect MVFR conditions to fall to IFR, perhaps LIFR at times.
Much drier air will arrive in the wake of the low on Wed, resulting
in improvement to VFR late morning or early aftn. Winds at both
terminals will also be gusty to around 25-30kt overnight. At KSAW,
pcpn will likely remain as just -shra. Initial IFR conditions will
fall to LIFR this evening, but should remain above airfield landing
mins. Improvement to MVFR will occur late tonight and to VFR late
morning/early aftn. Winds at KSAW will gust to around 30kt late
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 413 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020
A low developing along a cold front this afternoon will pass across
the lake late tonight. The low will lift through the middle of the
lake from the south. Following the passage of the low late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, winds will become northwesterly in
the west and more westerly in the east. Some gale force gusts will
be possible in the west during this period and a gale to 45kts is
forecast in the east, especially in the far eastern portions of the
lake.
Beyond this event, the next period where winds could exceed 25kts
looks to be Thursday afternoon, with the passage of the next
shortwave.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Wednesday for
MIZ002>005-009-010-084.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ007-014-
085.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for
MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ244-245-
248>251-264>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rolfson
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JP