Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
918 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Watching some
light echoes on radar over the southwestern part of South Dakota
that could possibly affect parts of the southern CWA overnight,
but with most models keeping any precipitation south of the area,
will just continue to monitor for now. No changes made to winds or
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
High pressure settles over the region tonight. With fresh snow,
temps should fall into the teens quickly in cloud-free areas.
An area of low pressure will move into Iowa on Tuesday. The main
forecast challenge is how far north and west the wrap-around snow
reaches. 90-95th percentile probs suggest light accumulations could
end up as far west as the James Valley. A couple of the
deterministic BUFKIT guidance runs showed up to an inch in the
Watertown area. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
exact track low and the amount of QPF, though the bulk of the snow
appears to stay over southeastern SD and into MN for the moment.
Current forecast has an inch of snow over Deuel county with GFS
1hour for pops with a few tweaks since it was the model farther
north and west. The RAP also trended north and west but was not
available to use in the later afternoon for Tuesday.
Otherwise, the region will remain under the influence of an upper
trough through the short term. This holds the colder than normal
temperatures in place. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the 30s to
around 40.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
A couple of disturbances will work their way through the region
during this phase of the forecast. At this point in time, they don`t
appear to be anything much other than minor waves that will bring a
couple of chances of some light precip to the forecast area. The
first wave or upper trough is progged to push through the region
Wednesday through Thursday. Shortwave energy rotating through could
give some of our forecast zones slight chance for light snow early
Thursday morning. This looks to be followed by a couple of dry days
later Thursday into Saturday. Another upper wave will push through
during the beginning of the weekend. This may give our eastern zones
some light rain/snow the first half of the weekend. After that, it
looks more dry as we see some ridging start to build in late in the
period.
Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal. The coldest day
perhaps will be Thursday as some cooler air gets pulled into the
area behind a departing system. Otherwise, daytime readings in the
40s to near 50 degrees still look possible through most of the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
955 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Issued a winter weather advisory for parts of southeast Minnesota
and parts of northern Iowa.
The strong surface cold front continues to push across the
forecast area ending our record breaking warmth from this last
week. As of 9pm...the surface front had pushed through La Crosse
and Decorah. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the 60s and
Rochester was down to 38 with 31 at KMKT. Water vapor satellite
imagery highlights the closed low over Colorado and two shortwaves
noted on the western side of the trough...over eastern Montana and
another dropping south into Utah. A strong upper level jet with
increasing upper level divergence continues overnight with
midlevel warm advection and frontogenesis. There have been a few
thunderstorms this evening, however the more organized storms have
be well to the south toward Oklahoma. Look for the showers and
isolated thunderstorm band to gradually shift east with additional
re-development to the southwest as the closed 500mb low over
Colorado moves into Nebraska. With the temperatures falling
quicker overnight...looked at the freezing rain probabilities
(NBM, HREF, SREF) and they were increased for the overnight
period into Tuesday morning. Decided to issue a winter weather
advisory for a wintry mix/freezing rain/sleet overnight and
Tuesday morning. Convective trends appeared to be more south of
the freezing rain area, but still something to watch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Water vapor satellite is showing the positive tilt long wave trough
extending from central Canada into the Desert Southwest. Two upper
level lows were embedded in the trough, one near Lake Winnipeg and
the other over Utah. At the surface, a cold front extended from the
Minnesota Arrowhead into central Kansas. Regional radars were
showing broken to widespread showers along and behind the front. As
the upper level low over Canada continues to move northeast, the
front will get pushed east and into the area tonight. With strong
frontogenesis in the baroclinic zone, look for the showers to
overspread the area starting late this afternoon in the west and
over the remainder of the area tonight. Expect to hear a few rumbles
of thunder with MU CAPE up to 250 J/kg present along the front as
well.
For Tuesday, the second upper level low will be lifting northeast
and across the Midwest. This will bring in another round of forcing
with strong pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer expected during the
afternoon. An area of low pressure will move along the front, which
is expected to still be over the eastern parts of the forecast area.
This will effectively keep the front nearly stationary for a good
portion of the day. With the frontogenesis continuing as well, the
showers are expected to remain fairly widespread for much of the
day. The potential problems will be with colder air moving in behind
the front and low, a transition to a wintry mix and then snow with
some accumulations possible across the northwest and a low potential
for strong storms across the southeast.
Looking at the 09.12Z HREF, there looks to be the potential for a 2
to 4 hour window of a wintry mix as the cold air moves in starting
in north-central Iowa and southeast Minnesota about mid-morning.
This transitional band then looks to work northeast into north-
central Wisconsin and portions of western Wisconsin by mid-
afternoon. Forecast soundings from the 09.16Z RAP and 09.12Z NAM
suggest this wintry mix could primarily be some freezing rain with a
warm nose aloft of 3 to 4C before enough cooling occurs to bring the
sounding back to all snow. The snow then looks to continue for a few
hours with some accumulations possible, mainly an inch or less
through the afternoon. Of concern though, is the light ice
accumulations shown in the HREF which may necessitate the need for a
winter weather advisory in this transition zone.
As for the storm potential, mixed signals in the models on the track
of the surface low and where the warm sector will be. The RAP and
NAM both indicate the possibility of the surface low coming across
portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, mainly Clayton
and Grant Counties. This would bring the warm sector in with ML
CAPES approaching 1000 J/kg. With plenty of shear to work with, 60+
knots in the 0-6km layer, a strong storm or two would be possible.
However, the HREF has the surface low tracking well to the east and
keeps the warm sector over Illinois into southeast Wisconsin. With
the deepening upper level low, concerned that the surface low could
get pulled farther west, like the RAP and NAM. Could be a day with
ongoing winter precipitation in the west and strong thunderstorms in
the southeast. Certainly not a common occurrence in mid-November!
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
The low pressure system will continue to the northeast towards Lake
Superior overnight into Wednesday with much of the wintry mixed
precipitation expected to end around midnight. Where roadways
remain wet overnight as temperatures decrease below freezing,
slick road conditions would be possible for the Wednesday morning
commute.
A relatively active pattern is expected into the weekend with the
area being under southwesterly upper-level flow as a long-wave
trough slowly works its way from the Pacific, through the mountain
west, and into the Great Lakes region. Closer to the surface, a
passing associated short-wave trough introduces rain/snow chances on
Thursday. With differences between deterministic models and ensemble
members, have decided to stick with the NBM blend. Not expecting
much for impacts as little to no snow accumulation is expected with
only a couple hundreths of liquid possibly reaching the ground.
Higher chances for widespread rain/snow return over the weekend with
better synoptic forcing as the main long-wave trough moves into the
region. Kept with the blend as there are differences in the timing
of the progression of this wave as it moves out of the Plains with
some possible deamplification. Near zonal flow is anticipated
sometime early next week.
Temperatures will be closer to early November seasonable normals
with afternoon temperatures reaching into the 40s and morning low
temperatures decreasing to near freezing. Although, the passing cold
front on Thursday evening will bring Friday morning temperatures
into the low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
A strong cold front will move east through KLSE between 10.04z and
10.06z. As this occurs, the winds will shift from south to
northwest. In addition, ceilings will become mvfr. Visibilities
will drop down to MVFR at times when showers occur.
For KRST, ceilings will be IFR/MVFR. Visibilities will drop down
to MVFR at times when showers occur. As colder air continues to
move into the area, the rain will change over to wintry mix of
freezing rain and snow. This transition will likely occur between
10.18z and 10.22z. Some light icing and snow accumulations will be
possible.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ079-086-
087-094-095.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...Peters
AVIATION...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
No major changes with this update. 03Z surface analysis places
surface high center over southern North Dakota and into South
Dakota. Temperatures in the northwest have dropped into the single
digits with NDAWN site Alamo 2S (Williams County) recording a
minimum of -2 F. After bottoming out, temperature trends have
mostly stayed steady. With stratus in southern Saskatchewan
inching towards the International Border, we`ll leave lows where
they were at with the previous update.
UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Mid-level trough centered over North Dakota this evening was
responsible for light snow in north-central North Dakota. This
trough will push east with high pressure amid ridging building at
the surface. With fresh snow and high pressure building, northwest
North Dakota should be the cold spot tonight. Southern
Saskatchewan 00Z observations show surface dew points in the lower
single digits, or as low as -2 F in some spots. We lowered lows in
the far northwest to the low end of guidance to bring
temperatures down to this range. Additionally we added some patchy
fog to the forecast early Tuesday morning, with light winds and
fresh snow in the northwest area. Only the recent HRRR runs were
showing any lower visibility so this may need to be adjusted if
high- resolution models begin to latch on to this potential more.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Overall expect lingering light snow and cold temperatures through
this evening, with generally dry conditions and continued cool
tonight through tomorrow. Yesterday`s low has progressed into
Canada, with the associated trough dipping into ND. This has been
a slow progress with amble moisture trapped with the feature. The
result has been lingering light snow across much of northern and
western ND. Amounts overall have been minimal as well as impacts
to roadways. As a result have still held off of any winter
highlights and will continue to message with an SPS. The remainder
of the area is seeing cold and breezy conditions. This cool flow
over Lake Sakakawea could bring lake effect snow through the
evening. Isolated areas could get some minor accumulations as a
result. The breezy winds could bring some blowing snow, mainly to
areas with fresh snowfall. Ridge of high pressure will then build
across the region tonight, ending snow and lightening the winds.
Some clearing skies could dip lows into the single digits tonight,
especially in the north.
Tuesday then looks to be a fairly dry day as we find ourselves
in-between weather systems. Temperatures may warm slightly into
the 30s as the general flow becomes more west southwest. Winds
also do not look to be as breezy as the past couple days. With a
transition pattern, precipitation is not expected during the day.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Broad trough pattern with cool conditions will give way to brief
ridging and warming conditions during the long term period. A
broad scale trough and embedded clipper system look to move
through the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. There will be a
chance of snow with this feature, although moisture is limited.
Best chances will come across the north and at this point only
minor accumulations are expected. Breezy northwest winds may also
accompany this system with temperatures slightly cooling except in
the southeast. This clipper could linger into Thursday perhaps
bringing scattered light snow and continue cold temperatures.
A brief ridging pattern then looks to end the week and start the
weekend. This could warm temperatures back to normal and generally
in the 40s. This pattern then becomes more zonal later in the
period, although looks to maintain the warming temperatures. The
zonal flow could allow for a clipper system to enter the region
over the weekend into early next week. At this point though there
is not enough confidence to place any chances for precip during
this time period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Building high pressure will create VFR conditions for this TAF
period mostly across the board. The exception being KXWA where
some fog may develop after 10Z Tuesday morning. High resolution
models aren`t terribly consistent with this potential so we just
introduced VCFG to the TAF for now, but this may need increasing.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
933 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.DISCUSSION...Tidal anomalies have increased to above 1 foot
this evening and expect tides will reach 2.2 feet MSL at time
of high tide. Issued Coastal Flood Advisory for islands of Nueces
and Kleberg Counties until 10Z. No other change to the forecast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020/
DISCUSSION...Tide levels are about a foot above expected at Bob
Hall Pier late this afternoon as tides move toward a high tide
this evening. Current trends would lead to tide levels around 2
feet MSL at high tide. With levels only marginally getting near
advisory criteria, will continue to hold off on issuance of
Coastal Flood Advisory. Will monitor trends to see if an increase
warrants advisory this evening. See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.
AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows less cloud cover over the
region late this afternoon. GOES image of total precipitable water
shows an axis of drier air moving from the northwest Gulf of
Mexico into the Coastal Bend. This will likely lead to a delay
in onset of low stratus/fog over the region tonight compared to
last night. HRRR model does not show much in the way of low
clouds and fog forming over the region tonight except for clouds
along the Rio Grande and fog near VCT area. Latest NAM forecast
soundings show low stratus/IFR ceilings and fog/MVFR vsbys will
form from 05-07Z over the inland coastal plains with stratus
moving into the Brush Country by 08Z Tuesday. Expect fog/LIFR
conditions will affect ALI-BEA-VCT line with onset at VCT earlier
around 05Z to around 10Z at ALI. The fog will dissipate and
ceilings lift from 14-16Z over the coastal plains to MVFR as winds
shift to southwest-west due to a pre-frontal trough. Winds will
shift to northerly with passage of weak frontal boundary late in
the afternoon. VFR conditions will occur across the area by 18Z
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 84 64 82 65 / 0 10 0 0 0
Victoria 66 85 63 83 61 / 10 10 0 0 0
Laredo 67 83 66 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 64 85 63 85 63 / 0 10 0 0 0
Rockport 68 81 65 81 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 66 82 61 85 64 / 10 10 0 0 0
Kingsville 64 85 63 83 64 / 0 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 70 81 69 78 69 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday For the following
zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
429 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Scattered to numerous snow showers will remain possible across the
majority of the area through the remainder of the afternoon & into
the evening hours. Accumulations should generally be light, but we
are a bit concerned about potential banded snow around the city of
Cheyenne late this afternoon into this evening. Infrared satellite
enhancement was noted from north central Colorado northward across
the southern Laramie Range. HRRR guidance suggests potential for a
couple of inches of snow this evening within this band. Expect the
snow shower activity to decrease in coverage & intensity overnight
as the main mid-level trough axis moves eastward.
High winds are the main concern over the next 24 hours. It appears
winds may be a bit slower to develop than earlier anticipated with
the delayed arrival of pressure falls across northeastern Wyoming,
but 700 & 850 mb CAG-CPR gradients are still progged to climb into
the 60-70 meter range after around 09z, remaining elevated through
at 03z Tuesday evening. A swath of 55-65 knot 700-800 mb flow will
develop across the southeast Wyoming wind corridors & the adjacent
valleys and high plains after 12z. Meanwhile, strong subsidence is
likely to develop behind a trailing mid-level disturbance which is
expected to sweep across the CWA between 12z and 18z Tuesday. This
is the time period when the strongest winds are likely across most
of the area. Low-level gradients heavily favor high winds at ARL &
Elk Mountain, while a 3-5 millibar MSLP gradient centered over the
spine of the Laramie Range will also be favorable for Bordeaux. We
could see some pretty impressive wind gusts in the BRX area with a
very strong mountain top inversion seen on GFS cross sections over
the Bordeaux gap with upwards of 65 kts of flow near or just below
the inversion layer. Very steep low-level lapse rates suggests the
potential for 75 MPH wind gusts over parts of the central/southern
Laramie Range. Inherited High Wind Warnings are in excellent shape
this afternoon w/ no changes required. It now appears possible for
subsidence to spread into the I-25 corridor Tuesday AM. If not, we
do note a very well mixed boundary layer on forecast soundings and
upwards of 60 knots available to mix per the GFS. MET guidance now
shows over 30 knot sustained winds, so confidence is growing for a
risk of 65-70 MPH wind gusts into Cheyenne & Wheatland. Mixing and
some mountain wave activity may also be sufficient for some higher
wind gusts into the Laramie Valley as well. These zones were added
to the current High Wind Warning products.
Winds should diminish in the Cheyenne/Laramie areas by 00z, but we
could see high winds persist over the wind corridors beyond the 6z
expiration of the High Wind Warning as flow aloft might stay quite
strong well into the night. Snow showers will remain possible thru
Wednesday beneath general upper-level troughing.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night - Monday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Progressive upper pattern will keep the CWA generally cool to
mild through the period with a couple of shortwaves expected to
pass across, bringing some snow to mainly the higher mtns and
adjacent areas at times. Breezy to windy at times otherwise with
the strongest winds looking to occur in the wind-prone areas over
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 429 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Latest KCYS radar scanning a narrow band of snow from KCYS up
towards KBFF. High-res model solutions keep snow and fog
continuing through the evening and lingering for some sites
through the overnight. Periods of mainly IFR and MVFR conditions
expected to persist with limited occasions of LIFR especially in
heaviest snow bands. Winds will be on the uptick with strong low
level forcing aloft for WY sites near 6z and later midday Tuesday
for the NE terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Widespread snow showers are expected today under a cold air mass,
relative to the unseasonably warm temperatures the region was
just under. Several inches of snow accumulation is expected across
the mountains, with about an inch elsewhere. Very strong winds
are expected to begin overnight tonight and continue through the
day Tuesday for the wind-prone areas of southeast Wyoming - a High
Wind Warning is in place for this threat. Elsewhere, gusty winds
will effect the region. A fast-moving and progressive pattern will
keep mountain snow showers and breezy conditions in the long term
forecast beginning Wednesday; however, across the High Plains, a
return towards dry conditions will be a concern.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Tuesday
for WYZ106-110-116-117.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ107-115-
118.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...AB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
900 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Per coordination with surrounding offices we have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for Yuma county, Cheyenne county Kansas, Dundy,
Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska effective now
through 18z Tuesday.
Previous forecast looked on track, using the latest snow ratios
supported the latest 18Z and 00Z guidance snowfall amounts of
around 3 inches in the advisory area with a few tenths to two
inches elsewhere. Will have to watch the orientation of the
wraparound precipitation axis, if its oriented more north south vs
current thinking of northeast to southwest Sherman county and
perhaps Kit Carson county could reach 3 inch snowfall threshold
for an advisory.
UPDATE Issued at 550 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Goodland and Burlington are reporting some reduced visibilities
in fog at the present time. A walk outside also reveals some light
freezing drizzle. With the bulk of any moisture confined to the
boundary layer and surface this appears likely to continue for
another few hours before better moisture moves in from the west
which should then transition any mixed precipitation to snow.
Right now it appears the threat for freezing drizzle extends from
Atwood and Oberlin southwest through Goodland, Sharon Springs and
Tribune/Cheyenne Wells. Have added a few hours of freezing drizzle
and fog to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Forecast problem is snow amounts tonight. Upper low near the Four
Corners at 21z will eject across the central Rockies and adjacent
plains tonight as an open wave. Light snow will spread west to
east after 00z this evening, continue through the overnight, then
end west to east Tuesday morning. Snow amounts have increased
since yesterday, but at this time still fall short of advisory
criteria. The NWS coordinated forecast shows total snowfall
amounts of 1-3", with highest amounts in southwest Nebraska. This
is very close to both the latest HRRR and GFS. The ECMWF is
slightly lower with snow amounts and a little further north. The
NAM shows a narrow band of heavier snow from eastern Yuma County
through Dundy County Nebraska, but has little to no support from
other models and is usually biased too high with snow amounts
absent convection, which is not expected. While a few locally
higher amounts of up to 4" cannot be ruled out, mainly in
southwest Nebraska, do not have enough confidence in meeting more
widespread advisory criteria (3-5") at this time, so will not have
any highlights. Wind during the snow will be north at around 15
mph with a few gusts to 20 mph possible earlier in the evening,
but winds diminish with time through Tuesday morning, so not
expected to be a factor. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.
For Tuesday, snow will end in eastern areas by late morning with
clearing skies in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 40s with light west winds. Those light downslope
winds will continue into Tuesday night and keep temperatures from
falling too dramatically, with lows expected in the teens and 20s.
Wednesday and Thursday will see zonal flow aloft with a shortwave
moving through the northern plains and not impacting the area.
Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures near normal and light
winds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 108 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures are expected through
much of the extended forecast. Normal high temperatures range from
the mid to upper 50s. Normal low temperatures range from the mid to
upper 20s.
Friday morning, an upper trough will be located over the Baja
Peninsula with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. An
upper ridge will be in place over the western part of the Dakotas.
As the day progresses, the trough will move east across southern
Arizona and New Mexico. Meanwhile, a low level, lee trough will
develop with the GFS and ECMWF attempting to briefly develop a
closed low over western Kansas. Gulf moisture does look like it
will get pulled as far north as Kansas and Nebraska, though the
Goodland CWA looks like it will be on the western fringe of this.
Widespread moisture is not anticipated across the forecast area,
however, an isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out in areas
along and east of Highway 283. Temperatures will range in the mid
to upper 50s for highs and the upper 20s to mid-30s for lows.
Saturday, the upper trough will push off to the east. Zonal flow
will set up in the Tri-State area. Afternoon highs will be a little
above normal, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows will
range from the mid-20s in Eastern Colorado to the mid-30s in
Northwest Kansas.
An upper trough over the Dakotas on Sunday will push into the Great
Lakes region on Monday with a ridge expected to move into the
Central High Plains. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Sunday
with highs in the 50s and lows primarily in the 20. Temperatures
will return to the low 60s on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 900 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020
Sub VFR conditions expected from TAF issuance through 15Z at KGLD
and KMCK. During this time light to occasionally moderate snow is
expected with visibilities as low as 1SM and north to northwest
winds around 11kts as a storm system moves across the area from
the southwest. After 16Z VFR conditions return as the backside of
the storm system lifts northeast and away from the terminals.
Northwest winds around 11kts continue through the afternoon before
becoming light and variable after 23Z and continuing through the
rest of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ001.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ090.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
The band of rain from south central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin
continues to advance east slowly this afternoon. Temperatures have
dropped to or just below freezing across western Minnesota where
patchy freezing rain or drizzle is occurring on the western fringe
of the precip band. Given its patchy nature, marginal temperatures,
and short duration, we`re not expecting much, if any, ice
accumulation tonight. But, some slick spots may develop as temps drop
below freezing from west to east this evening.
A significant forecast update was made today with the snow situation
for Tuesday. The holdouts on a more significant event have trended
toward the CMC and ECMWF which have been rather consistent for the
last several days in depicting a band of accumulating snow from the
central Plains, to southern/eastern Minnesota, into northern
Wisconsin. Some 12Z hi-res models (NMM/ARW) have maintained a more
eastern look, but the 15Z RAP and 18Z HRRR are now within the model
consensus as well. As a result, expecting the 00Z HREF to also shift
westward from its 12Z run today with some of its members already
doing so. Nonetheless, there is some question how much more the band
will shift east or west in later forecasts. Confidence is unusually
low at this time range due to the most recent drastic change.
However, confidence should build quickly tonight as things begin
developing.
Snow will develop tonight across Nebraska and build northeast into
southern Minnesota Tuesday morning, east central Minnesota and parts
of west central WI midday, then northwest Wisconsin mid afternoon.
With the stronger features aloft, the deformation band is expected to
be more intense and better developed (also responsible for the
westward shift.) Thus, heavy snow rates are likely at times and we
could see around an inch per hour. The peak intensity appears will
occur near the evening rush, which should make for rather high
impacts. Warmer air aloft is now predicted to reach eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. This may mix some sleet in on the eastern end
of the band, possibly as far west as the eastern Twin Cities metro and
Mankato areas. Even farther east, surface temps will be warm enough
for mostly rain in the Eau Claire area until later Tuesday evening.
Went ahead with a Winter Storm Watch due to the increasing potential
for 6 inches and the higher impacts expected in the evening. It
should be a relatively quick hitter, but intensity should make up for
time. Accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are possible within the watch
area and less than 3 or so east and west of it. The snow will end
from southwest to northeast late Tuesday evening with clearing skies
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
At the beginning of the period, the upper-level shortwave that is
our potential snow-maker for Tuesday will have shifted over eastern
Ontario as it rides up the ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. An
accompanying jetstreak will be in the trough`s base over the Great
Lakes. Very broad, but weak troughing will characterize the CONUS
west of the Mississippi River with the northern and southern
jetstreams converging in the Southwest.
Rising 500 mb heights from the departing shortwave means Wednesday
will be dry with plenty of sun. Temperatures for the rest of the
work week are a bit in question, mainly due to a deeper snowpack
likely being present across at least a portion of our CWA after
Tuesday. Thus, have adjusted high and low temperatures downward from
NBM to account for increased ground albedo and colder ground
temperatures. For Wednesday`s highs, went with a blend of the 25th
percentile of NBM and the 12z ECMWF. Wednesday night`s low are
forecast in the mid-20s. A broad shortwave and cold front approach
the Upper Midwest Thursday, and, as a result, forecast models
produce some snow in our CWA with varying degrees of success. Most
guidance shows 1-2 inches are possible, especially for the eastern
CWA. The one outlier is the 12z GFS, which alarmingly has over 6"
for the Twin Cities. Have opted to stay on the lower side of
guidance to allow for further adjustments, if needed. The cold
frontal passage will also slightly cool us making Thursday`s highs
in the mid-30s.
Thursday night is forecast to be the coldest night of the week as
skies clear post front. Mid to low teens for lows are a definite
possibility in our rural areas. For the metro, upper teens are more
likely. Temperatures will moderate back to normal by the weekend as
the upper-level flow transitions back to zonal and progressive as
the strong northern jetstream intersects the western CONUS. Our next
chance of precipitation begins late Friday night as a weak, embedded
shortwave within the zonal flow crosses the central US. Light snow
will be possible early Saturday morning, but as low-level WAA occurs
in response to the approaching shortwave, the snow should change
over to rain. Currently, greatest confidence for precipitation is
for eastern MN and WI Saturday afternoon and evening.
Towards the end of the period, long-range model divergence increases
with the handling of a developing trough over the central CONUS.
Models show surface cyclogenesis occurring somewhere near the north-
central US. However, it is much too early to get into specifics of
low placement or strength with much forecast confidence.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
Rain will gradually taper off from west to east this evening, with
very light rain lingering overnight at WI sites. The next batch of
precipitation lifts north from Iowa on Tuesday. A mix of rain and
sleet is possible at WI sites, with mostly snow at MN sites. Once the
precipitation begins, conditions will degrade to MVFR/IFR, with
LIFR/VLIFR possible where the heavier snow band sets up. Currently
KMSP and KMKT look to lie in that band, with sub-1SM visibility and
VLIFR ceilings possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Northwest
winds at 10-20 knots will prevail through the period.
KMSP...
Rain should taper off by 04Z, with VFR conditions after that through
Tuesday morning. Precipitation arrives to MSP around 18Z. There`s
some indication in a mix of snow/sleet at onset, but snow should
become prevalent on Tuesday afternoon into the evening, when snowfall
rates of 3/4" per hour appear possible. Snowfall accumulations in
the 4-6 inch range are likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. MVFR possible early. Wind WNW 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts becoming SSE 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-McLeod-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-
Washington-Wright.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-
Rice-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for Dunn-Pierce-St. Croix.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for Barron-Polk-Rusk.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...CTG
AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
657 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM EST MON NOV 9 2020
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows the placement of the
strong upper-level jet oriented SW to NE from the desert Southwest
to the Northern Plains. Beneath that jet is a strong cold front;
MSAS analysis shows the surface pressure trough running through the
Arrowhead of Minnesota and then SSW along the MN/WI border and
eventually into north-central Iowa. Satellite with cloud phase
distinction shows quite a bit of vertical growth to the cloud cover
along the front, and in fact some lightning was observed in
Minnesota earlier today. Satellite also shows a lot of lingering low-
level cloud over the higher terrain of the interior western U.P.
Despite this cloud cover, have still seen temps climb into the upper
60s and low 70s yet again. Southerly winds have been a little gusty
at times but this cloud cover seems to have kept the stronger gusts
from mixing down like some models this morning were advertising.
For this evening, since the HRRR and the RAP seem to have a good
handle on the placement of the front right now, used them heavily
for POPs as the front approaches the western CWA. Should see showers
start to work into Ironwood by around 23z and then reach a Marquette
to Iron Mountain line by around midnight. Model soundings show
modest MUCAPE for parcels lifted from the apex of the low-level warm
nose, so can`t completely rule out a rumble or two of thunder as
well, but for simplicity`s sake have kept thunder out of the grids.
Tomorrow morning the front continues to slowly sag southeastward,
eventually stalling out over the south-central and eastern U.P. Low-
level fgen will continue to be the focus for numerous rain showers
along the front throughout the day Tuesday for the central and
eastern U.P.
Then tomorrow afternoon things get interesting. By late Tuesday
afternoon, an amplified classic coupled upper-level jet pattern
develops with an equatorward speed max over the mid-Mississippi
Valley and a poleward speed max over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and
north into Ontario. A negatively tilted short wave riding
northeastward along the baroclinic zone within this coupled jet
region will quickly spin up a surface cyclone over Iowa. As this
happens, strong low to mid-level theta-e advection and Q-vector
convergence will push an area of heavier precip northward through
Wisconsin and into the U.P., and back into the cold sector. The NAM
and GFS both show a window for significant freezing rain over the
western half of the U.P. The NAM is more aggressive (warmer aloft,
colder at the surface, and wetter overall) whereas the GFS is less
impressive (though still supportive of mixed precip). Meanwhile the
consensus of the non-American guidance seems to be drier overall and
warmer at the surface, reducing the risk for any significant icing.
Not sure what exactly to make out of the QPF discrepancy.
Regardless, feel fairly confident that after a week of temps in the
upper 60s and low 70s the ground will be warm enough to prevent any
meaningful icing from occurring, especially on the roads. That said,
this forecast does include up to a tenth of an inch of ice for the
highlands of Baraga, southern Houghton, Ontonagon, and Gogebic
counties. Given low confidence in impactful ice, will not issue any
winter weather headlines at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM EST MON NOV 9 2020
A negatively tilted H5 shortwave trough will move from the central
CONUS to the northeast toward the northern Great Lakes/Hudson Bay
region. Model guidance is in solid agreement regarding placement and
timing of second upper level wave to affect the region. The first
wave of precipitation will have moved through earlier Tuesday
afternoon providing a sharp cooldown across the region as it does
so. A changeover for our western zones from a rain to sleet/freezing
rain to snow event is likely. Still some question of what the
likelihood would be for potential freezing rain to maintain a
presence over part of the CWA. Given the warm temperatures for the
last week, will keep any accumulations to a minimum for freezing
rain. The second wave of the precipitation overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning will have 2-4 inches of snow accumulation for our
western zones, with localized areas up to potentially 5 inches. The
remaining areas will have all rain to a rain/snow mix before
eventually turning to snow before the precipitation window narrows
down by mid morning Wednesday. Overall, the entire precipitation
window should yield several areas with liquid water totaling 1-2
inches in the CWA.
This will be a semi-active period for the medium range to extended
forecast period with several shortwaves propagating across the Great
Lakes region. Thursday looks to have the next shot of precipitation
starting as rain, and then transitioning to rain/snow mix before the
colder air wraps around to provide a chance of light snow. A couple
more shortwave disturbances propagate over the region for the
weekend timeframe before atmospheric ridging aloft begins to take
hold once again. The CPC favors below normal precip levels the next
6-14 days, and above normal temperatures are also favored. Despite
the region having a potentially active weather pattern, the
temperatures are likely to stay above normal for the extended period
with another drier than normal period of time on the horizon after
this upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 656 PM EST MON NOV 9 2020
IFR cigs will move into the area from west to east as the cold front
brings rain showers through the U.P. this evening. Winds will turn
westerly with the cold front passage. Once the cold front passes
through in the western TAF sites, expect conditions to improve to
VFR late tonight. However, due to a low pressure that looks to
develop along the cold front and move northeast through the U.P.
tomorrow, expect conditions near KSAW to stay in IFR. Also, this new
low will look to bring worsening conditions again to the western TAF
sites as it moves into the area tomorrow afternoon. Winds tomorrow
will shift to the north as the second low moves through. Mixed
precip looks possible, particularly in the western TAF sites once
the second low moves through tomorrow. A mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is possible at KIWD and KCMX tomorrow afternoon.
Meanwhile, it seems like precip at KSAW will stay as just rain.
However, some models indicate that KSAW may have some freezing rain,
so that could be an issue tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 404 PM EST MON NOV 9 2020
Southerly winds up to 30 kts are expected on the east half of the
lake this evening ahead of a cold front. Winds will veer around to
westerly late tonight behind the front but actually weaken a bit to
around 20 kts. A low developing along this front Tuesday afternoon
will pass across the lake early Wednesday leading to a brief period
of westerly gales for the east half. Despite being a brief period,
confidence is fairly high so have issued a Gale Warning for Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning for the eastern zones. SW winds around
25 kts are likely on Thursday on the west half of the lake, becoming
NW Friday on the east half.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM EST Wednesday
for LSZ266-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...RJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
728 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No shower activity indicated on radar at this time, or across the
region for that matter. Hrrr keeps conditions dry overnight so
will not add any pops for late tonight. Otw, look for a slow
increase in cloudiness as we go forward. Temps look to be in good
shape as well. No changes to current fcst.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Scattered low level cloudiness in place this afternoon across the
mid state. The scattered coverage will be giving way to broken and
overcast cigs later tonight. In fact, ifr cigs will likely be in
place by tomorrow afternoon. This is all in response to a
gathering of moisture in front of an advancing frontal system
which is scheduled to arrive on Tuesday night. As for any precip
chances, by the end of the taf period, vcsh will be required.
Thereafter, shower chances will increase.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Adcock
AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
957 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually shifts offshore overnight into Tuesday.
A slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The cold front moves in Wednesday night into early
Thursday. The front will stall on Thursday as a wave of low
pressure develops along the front. The wave pushes south of Long
Island Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. High pressure
builds to the west as another low pressure wave passes southeast
of Long Island Friday. High pressure will then move closer into
the area and build in Friday night into Saturday. Another
frontal system then approaches for the close of the weekend into
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
For this update just made some slight adjustments to hourly
temperatures to better capture localized rural areas with their
rapid radiational cooling. These same areas have had some very
large diurnal temperature ranges the last few days and with lows
overnight once again, anticipating a large swing in
temperatures as these outlying areas drop into the upper 30s to
lower 40s by late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere
with exception of NYC Metro, lows will be in the mid 40s to near
50. Lows in the NYC Metro will be in the middle and upper 50s.
The other update was to add in patchy fog for this evening,
first across parts of Long Island and the surrounding waters as
well as parts of Southern Connecticut, and then farther across
the interior late this evening into overnight. Areas of fog
maintained overnight across the coastal sections of the region
with patchy fog elsewhere.
Surface high pressure will gradually move offshore overnight.
The anomalous upper ridge that has been over the region the last
few days will become centered off the south east coast. The
main challenge tonight will be surrounding fog and/or low
stratus development. As is usually the case, the NAM is quite
aggressive with fog and stratus tonight. However, the GFS is
indicating much less coverage. HRRR soundings indicate fog
potential, especially near the coast. Low level flow also looks
to be out of the SW and not S or SE. Have increased sky cover a
bit after midnight and have included areas of fog. There could
be localized dense fog around day break, but not enough
confidence to include in the forecast. There is also a chance
any fog or stratus is isolated and skies remain mostly clear to
partly cloudy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fog and/or stratus should diminish through the morning with mostly
sunny skies expected Middle morning Tuesday through much of the
afternoon. SW flow will continue to advect more low level moisture
into the area. There may be stratus lurking along the immediate
coast or just offshore that advects northward late in the day as the
boundary layer cools. Temperatures will once again be unseasonably
warm for this time of year. Highs may end up being a few degrees
lower than on Monday. With an anomalous ridge still over much
of the eastern seaboard, temperatures could once again warm a
few degrees higher than forecast. Record highs are also
possible. See climate section below.
Surface high pressure will otherwise continue moving further
offshore through Tuesday night. The large ridge over the eastern
seaboard only slowly weakens with heights aloft only gradually
falling as a shortwave lifts up into the Great Lakes region.
Stratus and/or fog may be more widespread Tuesday night as dew
points will be well into the 50s across the entire area. This would
also be the second night of onshore flow, which typically supports
more widespread stratus/fog. A slow moving cold front will also
approach from the west Tuesday night, but any precipitation with the
front will hold off until later Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will
be in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast trend of later timing of rainfall has been noted with
successive models runs comparing Monday`s to Sunday`s runs.
Bulk of the rain expected Wednesday night into Thursday. The
highest precipitable waters stay south of Long Island with max
precipitable waters across the local area getting to around 1.6
to 1.7 inches. Rain showers are steady with moderate rainfall to
possibly heavy rain at times Wednesday night into early
Thursday.
Pacific upper level jet gradually moves into the region mid to late
week. Mid and upper level flow transitions from more SW amplified
flow to more of a zonal flow from mid week into the weekend.
At the surface, a frontal system approaches with central low
pressure moving in a northeast direction within Southeast Canada
Wednesday. Its associated cold front approaches during the day and
moves in Wednesday night into early Thursday. A wave of low pressure
will develop along the front stalling it just south of Long Island.
The low pressure wave moves farther south taking the front farther
south as well Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Wednesday starts off mainly dry with residual fog in the region.
Expecting the fog to last longer farther east and become more
patchy during the day. Rain showers will gradually increase from
west to east during the day as well. Rain showers become
widespread Wednesday night and could be moderate to heavy at
times.
Rain showers remain in the forecast with highest chances along
the coast for Thursday. Expecting the rain showers to last all day
for areas near the coast although they will be getting lighter
and perhaps become more intermittent late in the day. Away from
the coast, the rain showers will become more intermittent during
the afternoon. All rain showers are expected to taper off Thursday
night.
The front remains southeast of Long Island Friday but another weak
wave of low pressure develops along it. Flow aloft becomes more
zonal, with a strong shortwave moving northeast of the region. Some
subtle positive vorticity advection moves across the local region.
Forecast has a slight chance of rain showers for most areas and
a low chance for Southeast Connecticut and Eastern Long Island.
The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models all depict some light QPF of
mostly a few hundredths of an inch across parts of Long Island
and Southern Connecticut during the day Friday.
High pressure eventually builds in from the north and west Friday
night into Saturday. It will not stay for too long though as the
ridge aloft will be a much less amplified one. Another trough will
be quick to move in for the close of the weekend for Sunday and
Sunday night. Dry weather returns Friday night into Saturday with
another chance of rain showers Sunday through Monday.
Regarding temperatures, another well above normal temperature day
anticipated for Wednesday with forecast highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Temperatures are only forecast to drop into the
lower 60s most places for lows Wednesday night. The temperature
will only rise a few degrees Thursday with the rain showers
still in place so highs are only mainly in the lower 60s for
Thursday. Forecast highs are mainly in the upper 50s for Friday,
a few degrees above normal. Highs are forecast to remain within
a few degrees of normal values for the weekend before trending up
towards lower 60s for highs next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control.
VFR initially, with some fog and low stratus developing towards
6Z for city and some outlying terminals. Have already seen fog
and low stratus out towards KISP. Expecting MVFR and IFR
conditions for some terminals. Confidence with respect to
coverage remains low with oscillating conditions and not
widespread, and initially more patchy. Brief LIFR conditions are
possible Tuesday morning towards 9z, but confidence continues to
be too low to put in TAFs at this time.
Any fog and stratus will improve around 14Z Tuesday morning. There
is timing uncertainty with end time of sub VFR conditions. MVFR
conditions will then become increasingly likely for southern most
terminals by Tuesday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible through this evening for eastern most
terminals, then late tonight into Tuesday morning for the remaining
terminals (including NYC terminals) for fog and stratus.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday Night...Sub VFR conditions develop, with increasingly likely
sub IFR and LIFR conditions through the night and into Wednesday
morning.
.Wednesday...IFR in low clouds and fog in the morning, then MVFR in
showers.
.Thursday...Possible MVFR in showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
.Friday-Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will largely be in control through Tuesday. The core
of the high moves further offshore late Tuesday into Tuesday night,
increasing the pressure gradient. Winds on the ocean could approach
20 kt Tuesday night. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions are forecast
through Tuesday night.
SCA level wind gusts are likely Wednesday through Thursday for
the ocean with SCA level ocean seas Wednesday night through
Friday. Mainly below SCA conditions on the non-ocean waters for
Wednesday through Saturday night. All waters are forecast to have
below SCA conditions Friday night through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread rain expected through Tuesday night.
Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast Wednesday through
Thursday and with such a long period of time to spread the rain,
this will mitigate most hydrologic issues. Minor nuisance
flooding could be a possibility in poor drainage areas with
multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for:
Tuesday, November 10th.
EWR...73/1999
BDR...69/1977
NYC...73/1985
LGA...75/1999
JFK...72/1999
ISP...72/1999
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
CLIMATE...