Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/06/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
649 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 .AVIATION... For the 06/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions should largely prevail this period despite the presence of an upper level trough/closed low centered across the region. This upper low will slowly shift more S/SW through Friday. Some cumulus present this evening will likely persist overnight in some areas with the low still present. In addition, some patchy fog may also develop closer to daybreak at a few sites with MVFR vsbys possible for a few hours. Aside from that, the low VFR cigs could occur intermittently overnight into Friday morning with the cu that is currently present. Winds will remain rather light from the E/SE with speeds generally near 5 kts or less. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 126 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020/ SHORT TERM... The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a 500mb trough axis extends from northwestern Arkansas southwestward across the ArkLaTex and into East Texas. While some vort energy is coincident with the base of this weak trough, moisture is limited to the 1000-925mb layer. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Carolinas across the Mississippi Valley and into the local area. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds extend from Deep East Texas across the ArkLaTex into southwestern Arkansas with mostly sunny skies otherwise. This evening, the relatively dry mid-level trough will slowly slide southeastward across the ArkLaTex. Any lingering diurnal cumulus this evening will mostly diminish after sunset. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph will shift to more easterly this evening. Tonight, the trough will begin to break southward and become a closed low over the Texas coast and East Texas. Skies will mostly clear overnight and patchy fog will develop by the pre-dawn hours. Overnight lows side slightly closer to the cooler NAM/NBM guidance with lows ranging from the mid 40s in southwestern Arkansas to the mid 50s in portions of East Texas. Friday into Friday night, the GFS/NAM/ECMWF all show the closed lower meandering around East Texas and the southeast Texas coast. While the ECMWF is hinting at some deep moisture advecting into northern Louisiana and possibly a few showers moving into central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss Friday night into Saturday morning, this is considered to be an outlier and the forecast remains dry. For temperatures, a GFS/NAM blend is closest to the NBM with highs in the mid 70s on Friday and lows ranging from the lower 50s in SE Oklahoma/SW Arkansas to the upper 50s in central Louisiana. /04-Woodrum/ LONG TERM... At the start of this long-term period, a weak low-pressure will be spinning off the SE Texas coast, allowing for increased moisture and slight WAA to continue filtering into the region. However, this weak low-pressure will degrade over the weekend, and be replaced with SW flow aloft ahead of the next longwave trough expected to move east into early next week. While this S/SW flow will increase the moisture and cloud cover across the Four-States region, precipitation is currently not expected due to lack of trigger. However, some of the guidance at my disposal this morning did hint at some spotty showers over the weekend, but my confidence was not high enough to include them in this forecast. Afternoon high through Monday should run in the mid to upper 70s, with overnight lows in the low-60s. By Tuesday of next week, the next trough and cold front will begin to work their way into the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin increasing in the morning, and expand east into the afternoon and evening. At this time, due to limited instability, and not the most favorable forcing, no severe weather is anticipated. By the time the front passes on Wednesday, look for a slight swing in temperatures with afternoon highs in the low-70s, and overnight lows in the mid to upper-50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 48 76 58 75 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 50 73 52 75 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 48 73 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 46 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 55 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 50 75 53 76 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 51 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 19/04/44