Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
928 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Not planning any major updates tonight. Forecast is in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 The forecast challenge is temperature. Currently, westerly breezes are helping the already warmer than normal airmass over-achieve, temperature-wise, again today. A, literally, cloudless sky over this CWA and these warm west winds are pushing the mercury up into the upper 60s to upper 70s throughout the forecast area. Continuing with the Red Flag Warning that covers Corson, Dewey, Campbell, Walworth, Potter and portions of McPherson, Edmunds and Faulk counties through 5 PM CST. Have already met red flag criteria across a few spots in fire weather zone 268, and suspect that those conditions will be met even further east across portions of fire weather zone 269 before sundown. At risk of sounding like a broken vinyl record, the much above normal and precipitation-free forecast will persist into Wednesday. Similar to this morning, looking at low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night dipping into the 30s and 40s. High temperatures on Wednesday will likely warm well into the 60s and 70s, per 12Z deterministic 925hpa/850hpa thermal progs and 00Z/12Z ensemble-based GFS/ECMWF 850hpa temperature anomalies. Wednesday will probably start out similar to today wrt low level dryness and afternoon RH values devolving down into a "less than 20 percent" range, at least for portions of Fire Weather Zones 270, 271, 272, 273 and Big Stone/Traverse Counties in wc MN. By afternoon, models are currently depicting a pocket of low level moist air advecting down into the state, which would potentially negate the RH criteria for a Red Flag Warning for a couple Fire Weather zones in the CWA. At this point, 0.5km winds off the latest RAP and the 12Z GFS/NAM/Canadian suggest the 25 mph gust criteria could be met across northeast South Dakota Wednesday afternoon. Lots of low predictability horizon on this moving window of potential, so will defer to the next forecast shift to take another look at things. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Zonal flow aloft will transition to ridging just east of the CWA as a western CONUS trough deepens late in the week/early in the weekend. Suddenly the pattern becomes very high amplitude with north south upper flow overhead Saturday and with a strong negatively tilted trough lifting out of the Central Plains Sunday. The result is the continued placement of milder air overhead, with 850mb temperatures peaking Friday and Saturday around 20C which is over 2 standard deviations above climo. Blended guidance has underperformed with the last few days of heat, so therefore went a few degrees warmer Thursday through Saturday. After that, we are on the back side of the upper trough and temperatures will be down a little below normal with 850mb temperatures coming in around 10 below zero to start off next week. As for precipitation, most of the upper dynamics with the system will be focused northwest of the CWA, and we are mostly in the dry slot as the surface low moves up across the western Dakotas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight regionwide. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
936 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Clear skies continue across the region tonight. With dry air and the clear skies temperatures have fallen rapidly in light wind areas, into the upper 30s, while mixing keeping temperatures into the lower 50s where winds are a little higher. So overnight low temperatures will be a challenge. We generally lowered mins about 3 to 5 degrees tonight. A dry cold front will move through the region Wednesday. Reasonably good low level mixing behind the front should provide a breezy to windy day Wednesday. Current winds in the forecast look good, at 20 to 30 mph, and reflect the usually better mixing RAP model. So no adjustments to winds or the forecast for Wednesday at this time. UPDATE Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Winds have decoupled and mixing has ended across the region. Skies will be clear across the region tonight. We broke high temperature records this afternoon, at Bismarck (76 old record 70 in 1949) and Minot (73, old record 71 in 1904). It will continue to be mild on Wednesday, with another breezy to windy day in store. Current forecast looks good. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Continued mild weather highlights the short term period. Currently, broad upper level ridging across the Northern Plains, with an area of surface low pressure to our north associated with an embedded mid level shortwave across far southern Canada. South of this low a decent pressure gradient resides across western and central ND today, with a steady westerly wind of 15 to 20 mph and a few gusts occasional to 30 mph. Good mixing coupled with a dry boundary layer has seen RH values from 15 to 20 percent, with several sites in and out of RFW criteria. We opted earlier to maintain the mid shift approach in mentioning near-critical fire weather for today rather than hoist a headline, and will do the same with this product issuance with only another 3 hours or so of peak heating left for the day. Otherwise for this afternoon, very mild and we have already broken or tied record high temperatures for both Minot and Bismarck. The warm air mass remains across the region for tonight, as the surface low stays to our north. As we saw this morning, temperatures will again be dependent on elevation and terrain variability, with exposed hilltops likely remaining within a shallow inversion layer while river and creek valleys radiate efficiently in the dry air mass. The latest blend of models reflected this for overnight lows well. Embedded S/WV slides east across North Dakota on Wednesday, and will result in another day of gusty west winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Expect another day of near-critical fire weather though overall humidity will be 5-10 percent higher. A lower humidity forecast would put many areas near RFW criteria so will keep an eye on this over the next few forecast cycles this evening and tonight. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 The long term will see continued mild and dry weather through Friday, followed by a significant pattern change over the weekend into early next week. Deterministic and ensemble models remain consistent in quasi- zonal flow through Thursday, maintaining mild and dry weather. Our flow transitions to more southwesterly late this work week as a strong upper level low slams into the West Coast Thu night- Friday. Cooler temperatures forecast but continued mild and dry. Larger spread regarding high temperatures Sat/Sun continues in members composing the NBM guidance as the upper low lifts north across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Much uncertainty remains in play with sfc pressure patterns, low level flow, and thermal profiles of this system. More confidence in temperatures materializes early next week in the wake of this storm system, when the NBM spread is low with highs in the 20s to around 30 Monday and Tuesday. The latest trend has been a drier and westward shift in the heavier precipitation potential Sat night/Sunday, though much uncertainty remains. It is likely we will see precipitation, just how much and timing remains questionable with further shifts possible, dry slot placement, and overall speed of the low. We will message the higher confidence with the much colder temperatures next week, and the higher uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and placement. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday. There will be some wind shear KXWA-KMOT from 1200 feet to the surface between 05-14z. See TAFs for details. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
828 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 .UPDATE... Clear skies at this time with large high pressure ridge dominating the southeast U.S., with a weak sfc trough noted east of the coast per latest analysis. The high will move east-northeast through Wednesday morning with low level flow becoming more easterly and ushering some low level moisture to a very dry airmass. 00Z JAX sounding showed PWAT of only 0.46 inches. Still cool tonight but not as cold as last night, with widespread mins in the 40s inland and more so in the 50s toward the coast with slight adjust down for mins. Only minor adjustment for sky cover to delay clouds a bit as some stratocumulus will move onshore early Wednesday morning. Still an outside chance of a couple of light showers along the coast, per HRRR and GFS models, south of Ponte Vedra Beach after about 4-5 AM. .MARINE... No major changes except to bring seas up slightly along the nearshore coastal waters rest of tonight. Winds mainly northeast- east 10-15 kt rest of tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [648 PM EST]... .Near Term.../through Wednesday/... Strong high pressure will be north northeast of the region this period. This pattern will lead to an increasingly moist and warmer onshore flow. This will result in a milder night Tonight, and a near normal day on Wednesday. Cloud cover will slowly increase from East to West through the period, but well inland counties will experience mainly clear skies. As moisture increases, chance for mainly coastal showers increases as well. .Short Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/... Surface high pressure will remain to the northeast through this period, continuing the onshore flow pattern. Moist onshore flow will result in shower chances through Friday. Models depict a potential tropical system to the south Friday night into Saturday, which would increase the potential for showers and storms. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. .Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/... A great deal of uncertainty in this forecast period, as longer range models have little run to run or model to model consistency in handling of potential tropical system. At minimum with the surface high to the northeast a continued moist onshore flow will yield cloud cover and precipitation chances. But, if the system gets as close over the weekend as the 12z GFS depicts, would have windy conditions and potential for heavy rain. At this time, will continue to forecast above average precipitation chances for the weekend, into early next week, with temperatures a little above normal. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions prevail, but an increase in clouds expected early Wednesday as stratocumulus push into the area, with bases around 3-5 kft at times. A couple of showers will be possible along the coast and included VCSH for SGJ by mid morning. Light to calm winds tonight will become northeast around 6-12 kt on Wednesday. .Marine... High pressure will be northeast of the region through the weekend into early next week, leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow. Longer range models produce a great deal of uncertainty to the forecast late in the weekend into early next week, due to handling of a potential tropical system which may move into the region south and southwest of area waters. Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Wednesday NE FL: Moderate through Wednesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 40 76 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 76 64 76 67 / 0 20 20 10 10 JAX 49 75 64 78 66 / 0 20 10 20 10 SGJ 59 76 67 79 69 / 20 20 20 20 20 GNV 50 77 59 80 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 OCF 52 78 61 82 65 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&