Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/03/20

National Weather Service Albany NY
937 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday, with periods of lake effect snow showers across favored areas through Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow will be heaviest across the western Adirondacks, with accumulating snow expected in the western Mohawk Valley, southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires. Some snow showers will even be possible at times in valley locations into Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier weather will return for Wednesday with most locations warming into the 60s on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 937 PM EST...An upper level disturbance (currently located over Ontario) will be diving southeastward through the trough located over the Northeastern US. MRMS imagery shows that lake enhanced snowfall is starting to pick up once again in response to this approaching shortwave. Both KTYX radar and NYS Mesonet web cam imagery depict some fairly heavy snowfall occurring from Old Forge northward towards Beaver River and Stillwater Reservoir area of northern Herkimer County. NYS Mesonet snow depth has already risen a few inches since the lake effect has picked up this evening and a total of 6 to 10 inches can be expected within the most persistent bands across far northern Herkimer and northwestern Hamilton Counties. As the shortwave starts moving into New England, the LES band is then expected to migrate southward from the southern Dacks into the Mohawk Valley affecting I-90, as the flow trajectory veers from west to northwest behind the shortwave. Guidance from the 3km HRRR and NAMNest indicating a single band with an almost full-lake trajectory over Lake Ontario and Moderate lake induced instability. While some burst of snow have already been occurring across the Mohawk Valley and Sacandaga Region, a more concentrated area of snowfall is expected for after midnight in this area. An extension of this band is also expected to move southward through the Capital District/Schoharie Valley/Taconics/Berkshires and Catskills between around 1 to 5 AM. Temperatures in the valleys will be hovering right above the freezing mark, but p-type should be snow due to cold temps aloft. Valley accumulations may be limited, but a coating to an inch can be ruled out as the bands moves through the Capital Region and parts of the mid Hudson Valley. High terrain areas could see a quick inch or two depending on how fast the band moves southward. As it heads towards the southeastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley, it looks to be weakening towards daybreak Tuesday, as the shortwave continues to exit to the east. A few snow showering may linger in the high terrain into the morning hours but most should stay dry. Cloud cover will gradually decrease throughout the day on Tuesday as dry air works its way into the region. West to northwest winds will remain breezy overnight and into the day Tuesday with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph from the Capital District south during daytime mixing on Tuesday. Winds will finally diminish Tuesday evening. Temps will mainly be in the 30s on Tuesday, although some low to mid 40s are possible for the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT thanks to downsloping. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... We will trend towards warmer temperatures through the short term period with low level southerly flow and upper level ridging in place. Tuesday night looks like the coldest of the period with lows in the 20s. Temperatures then warm up into the 50s on Wednesday and into the low 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be more mild, in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are in store through the long term period. An upper-level shortwave will move across our region Thursday night through Friday but bring nothing more than a few extra clouds, especially for northern areas. Once this shortwave passes, upper-level ridging will strengthen over the weekend and hold into early next week as a surface high pressure system sets up across the mid-Atlantic. This will bring continuous dry and partly to mostly clear weather. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal during this period with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s (except some highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s in the higher elevations). Record highs during this period at our climate sites are in the 70s, so it looks like we will come up short of these values. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Although gusty winds have diminish somewhat, westerly winds will continue to be around 6 to 10 kts through the late evening hours with a few higher gusts from time to time. Flying conditions look VFR for the next few hours, with bkn-ovc cigs around 4500-6000 ft for KALB/KGFL/KPSF and just some high clouds at KPOU. As a shortwave passes over the region, lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will start to shift and may spread towards the TAF sites for the late night hours, mainly KGFL/KALB/KPSF. There could be a few hour period of snow showers at each site from 06-11z. Any snow could lower flying conditions to IFR/LIFR, with visibility as low as 1/2SM to 2SM. With the passing shortwave, winds will start to increase from the W-NW at 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts. KPOU has a lower threat for snow showers, but will still include a PROB30 there for a passing MVFR snow shower towards daybreak. On Tuesday, flying conditions should be VFR with decreasing clouds and no more threat for any snow showers. West-northwest winds will pick up again around 10 to 15 kts with some gusts of 15 to 25 kts possible for all sites. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Northwest winds will gust between 35 and 50 mph into this evening... Cold and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday, with periods of lake effect snow showers across favored areas through Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow will be heaviest across the western Adirondacks, with accumulating snow expected in the western Mohawk Valley, southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires. Some snow showers will even be possible at times in valley locations into Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier weather will return for Wednesday with most locations warming into the 60s on Thursday. Winds will become westerly around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be northwest around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro problems anticipated through the next 7 days. Cold and windy conditions, with lake effect snow showers will occur into Tuesday. Accumulating snow is expected across the western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires. Then much warmer and drier conditions will occur from Wednesday through early next week. Any snow on the ground will melt, but the snowpack will not have enough water content to cause any significant runoff. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/JLV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JLV SHORT TERM...JLV LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...JPV/JLV HYDROLOGY...JPV/JLV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds will continue overnight with another round of Lake Effect precipitation. High pressure builds in later on Tuesday, bringing much warmer and drier weather for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1040 PM Update... Near term forecast remains on track. Surface temperatures are rising as expected, although perhaps a little warmer than previously forecasted. Currently in the mid-30s to lower 40s across much of the region, except still lower 30s across the far northeast portion of the CWA. In a bit of a lull now with the lake effect, but near term guidance and radar trends suggest that a heavy band of mixed lake effect rain, snow and graupel will move south through Oneida/Onondaga counties between another quick burst of 2-5 inches of snow is likely across the higher terrain of northern Oneida, where the lake effect snow warning remains in effect. Further south a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow may fall in the predawn hours across elevations above 1400 feet south of Utica/Syracuse into northern Cortland, Madison and Chenango counties. 640 PM Update... As expected an area of light warm advection snow has developed across much of CNY early this evening. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 20s to mid-30s out there at this time. so there may be some minor accumulations under 1 inch through late evening. NE PA is remaining dry under partly cloudy skies. A plume of heavier lake effect snow is coming off Lake Ontario, impacting the Tug Hill Plateau, including far northern Oneida county. Latest near term guidance is adamant that a strong, intense band of lake effect snow, rain, graupel will form over Lake Ontario just after midnight. This band sweeps south along a wind shift/cold frontal boundary. This band may even contain a few lightning strikes as it moves south through Onondaga, Oneida and Madison counties in the predawn hours. Boundary later temperatures are marginal for snow in this area, as they are forecast to actually rise a few degrees overnight into the low to mid-30s. This is a complex, and somewhat uncertain forecast in this time frame. For now, made some changes to the near term grids including incorporating the latest QPF forecasts from the Canadian regional, NAM Nest and HRRR models. Current thinking is that the precip will actually be mainly rain/graupel for the lower elevations near Syracuse, but then transitioning to wet snow across the higher elevations to the south and east. Still have snow amounts of 6-10 inches across northern Oneida, then only 1-3" in the Mohawk Valley...around 1 inch or less for the low elevations near Syracuse. Higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible in the hills south of Syracuse late tonight into Tuesday morning. Will take another look with the 10 PM update at this. Otherwise, gusty winds continue overnight, especially near that lake effect band. Wind advisory on schedule to expire at 7PM. 145 pm update... A shortwave is approaching NY and NE PA this afternoon with clouds thickening up over the Finger Lakes with those clouds making their way east. Some precipitation is starting to be picked up on Radar over the Great Lakes with the snow showers holding off until the late afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be light with this shortwave in the early evening but as the wave progresses overhead, it will help organize a band of Lake effect snow off of Ontario. This band is expected to move from North to South through the evening with the heaviest snow occurring this evening into the early overnight hours across Northern Oneida county. Snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches an hour. As this band begins to move south of Oneida county after midnight, warm air moving in aloft reduces lift through the dendritic growth zone as well as dries it out. That along with surface temperatures near or above freezing means that rain will be the dominant precipitation type once the band is south of the NY Thruway. There could still be brief periods of heavy snow in the band with the heaviest precipitation mixing down colder air. Tomorrow, high pressure builds in. NW flow at the surface keeps temperatures on the cooler side through the day as well as some low stratus and some lake effect showers. 850 mb temperatures begin to warm late in the day as flow aloft becomes more westerly, bringing an end to the lake effect precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 PM Update: Very quiet weather in the short term with high pressure dominating much of the eastern third of the U.S. Upper trough off the nrn New England coast will continue to lift east out of the area Tuesday night as a broad but relatively flat upper ridge stretches from the Midwest into the Northeast. Cold temperatures are expected early Wednesday morning with mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling leading to morning lows in the 20s and lower 30s. However, a warm air advection regime will set up during the day Wednesday and continue into Thursday with 850mb temps rising above +10 deg C. Large scale suppression is expected to keep skies mostly sunny Wednesday and into the early part of Thursday...which will help turn afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A weak wave cutting through the ridge will likely usher in only a thin veil of high clouds on Thursday, which should not deter from temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 60s for much of the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 AM Update: An amplified ridge will build in from the west during this period and will bring well above normal temperatures through the weekend. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected each day, with even some lower 70s possible in some of the valley locations Saturday and Sunday. This will make it feel more like late September, rather than early November. Plenty of sunshine is also expected through the long term period with high pressure located in the vicinity of the region. Should be a great weekend to get outside and enjoy the weather. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 630 PM Update... Warm front pushing west across the region this evening has kicked off some snow showers, but they are starting to let up now. More intense snow or even rain/snow mix will affect RME and SYR later tonight/early Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow band will develop north of Oneida County and then start to dip southward around midnight tonight. Temperatures in SYR will be borderline, and it is possible a ra/sn mix will occur, however, when the band is directly overhead and precipitation is most intense, it may fall as all snow. Really there is only about a 2 degree difference in the forecast that could cause a rain or ra/sn mix to just be all snow at SYR. When the heaviest the of the band goes through, we will likely see snow at RME and visibility will be quickly reduced to a half mile or less. This may also be the case at SYR, but by the time the band makes it to SYR, temperatures will be a bit warmer, so the forecast is thus more uncertain there. As the Lake Effect band makes it further south, it will weaken and become more showery rather then an organized band. Lower ceilings to MVFR or high end of IFR will be possible at BGM, ELM, and ITH early tomorrow morning. Finally, a strong low level jet will be coming through tonight and low level wind shear conditions will be likely for a period at all terminals. Conditions begin to clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected by late morning/early afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
553 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 351 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a western ridge and eastern trof configuration, leaving the Upper Great Lakes under nw flow this aftn. A shortwave is dropping se across northern Ontario, near James Bay. Associated sfc low is over southern James Bay with trailing cold front extending back across northern Ontario. Closer to home, the day started with plenty of mid and high clouds across the fcst area under the waa/isentropic ascent in response to the shortwave. This waa has been fading this aftn, and as a result, clouds have been thinning out. Temps have risen into the 40s with a few spots around 50F over w and central Upper MI. It`s been a windy day over the Keweenaw where gusts were into the 40-45mph range for a couple of hrs. Cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will continue to move s, settling roughly in a nw-se orientation from roughly Isle Royale across the Keweenaw and central Upper MI to northern Lake MI late tonight. The front will stall out there before shifting ne as a warm front on Tue in response to a weak shortwave rounding the western ridge which will be building eastward. Tonight, the cold front will drop into the area uneventfully as it weakens with parent shortwave long gone. Air mass will also be too warm to support any lake effect pcpn in its vcnty. Expect some lower clouds to accompany the front, but that`s it. Late tonight, waa/isentropic ascent will develop in response the next shortwave tracking across s central Canada. Sharpest isentropic ascent per 295k and 300k sfcs, roughly 800mb to 700mb, will develop nnw of Lake Superior late tonight then translate e and se, passing largely n and e of Lake Superior on Tue. Thus, don`t expect any pcpn concerns tonight or Tue. Temps tonight will fall back to mostly the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Tue, the day will start sunny far w while clouds to the e clear out from w to e during the day. 850mb temps will be pushing 13-14C over the w and 10C over the e by late aftn. Would be a toasty day, but the combination of a low early Nov sun angle combined with waa maintaining inversion strength will limit how warm it becomes at the sfc. For now, expect highs to range from around 50F e, where ssw winds up Lake MI and later clearing keep conditions cooler, to around 60F w. Fcst soundings indicate that limited mixing heights will prevent the tapping of 35-45kt winds as close as 1-2kft off the sfc. Will still turn toward the breezy side with gusts of 20-25mph. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 425 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020 The extended looks to be a fairly calm period dominated by a ridge slowly moving from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic over the work week and through the weekend. A cold front looks to slowly make it`s way over the area Sunday and Monday as a low pressure system lifts from the Rockies to northern Ontario. Details below. Expect dry and mild conditions due to the jet stream being well north of the US, allowing a ridge to remain over our area until the weekend. This ridge will bring temperatures that are well above average to Upper Michigan, as the NAEFS and ENS have temperature anomalies in the 99.5th percentile. There may a small chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday, as a mid level shortwave will move through northern Ontario. However, there will be a low level dry layer and a strong temperature inversion that should prevent any precipitation from happening; therefore, we should only expect some clouds Wednesday and Thursday as the shortwave passes through. Temperatures look to decrease slightly to closer to normal values with the passage of the shortwave. However, expect temperatures to rebound the 97.5th percentile (ENS) by the weekend as the jet stream finally dips down into the western US and a low pressure system develops near the northern US Rockies. The low should begin lifting towards northern Ontario Sunday. The low looks to bring in a cold front towards Upper Michigan Sunday night into Monday. Winds along the cold front look to be in the 90th percentile in the upper and mid levels, hinting at enhanced lift along the frontal boundary. PWaTS along the front also look to be in the 90th percentile in the NAEFS and 99.5th percentile in the ENS. With the synoptic forcing and high PWaTs in the air, heavy rainfall may be a real possibility if this event materializes. Expect temperatures to return to normal as the cold front passes through. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 553 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020 VFR conditions are expected at all sites thru this fcst period. LLWS is possible at KIWD for a time Tue morning and in the afternoon at KSAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 351 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020 As low pres near James Bay shifts se tonight, an associated weakening cold front will drop over Lake Superior, extending nw to se across the mid portion of the lake by late tonight and resulting in winds diminishing. Some gale force gusts will continue into the evening over the eastern part of Lake Superior. Overnight, winds will fall off blo 20kt across the entire lake. On Tue, winds will ramp up again, especially over the e half of the lake, as the pres gradient tightens btwn strengthening high pres ridge to the e and low pres troffing extending eastward toward Lake Superior. Southerly winds will increase to 20-30kt for a time over the eastern part of the lake. Winds will then fall off to under 15kt across the entire lake Tue night. Winds should then stay mostly blo 25kt into late week under a warm pattern with only weak low pres systems tracking e through central Canada, passing well north of Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LSZ251-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...07 MARINE...Rolfson