Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/03/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
937 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday,
with periods of lake effect snow showers across favored areas
through Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow will be heaviest across
the western Adirondacks, with accumulating snow expected in the
western Mohawk Valley, southern Green Mountains and northern
Berkshires. Some snow showers will even be possible at times in
valley locations into Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier weather will
return for Wednesday with most locations warming into the 60s on
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 937 PM EST...An upper level disturbance (currently
located over Ontario) will be diving southeastward through the
trough located over the Northeastern US. MRMS imagery shows that
lake enhanced snowfall is starting to pick up once again in
response to this approaching shortwave. Both KTYX radar and NYS
Mesonet web cam imagery depict some fairly heavy snowfall
occurring from Old Forge northward towards Beaver River and
Stillwater Reservoir area of northern Herkimer County. NYS
Mesonet snow depth has already risen a few inches since the
lake effect has picked up this evening and a total of 6 to 10
inches can be expected within the most persistent bands across
far northern Herkimer and northwestern Hamilton Counties.
As the shortwave starts moving into New England, the LES band
is then expected to migrate southward from the southern Dacks
into the Mohawk Valley affecting I-90, as the flow trajectory
veers from west to northwest behind the shortwave. Guidance from
the 3km HRRR and NAMNest indicating a single band with an
almost full-lake trajectory over Lake Ontario and Moderate lake
induced instability. While some burst of snow have already been
occurring across the Mohawk Valley and Sacandaga Region, a more
concentrated area of snowfall is expected for after midnight in
this area.
An extension of this band is also expected to move southward
through the Capital District/Schoharie Valley/Taconics/Berkshires
and Catskills between around 1 to 5 AM. Temperatures in the
valleys will be hovering right above the freezing mark, but
p-type should be snow due to cold temps aloft. Valley
accumulations may be limited, but a coating to an inch can be
ruled out as the bands moves through the Capital Region and
parts of the mid Hudson Valley. High terrain areas could see a
quick inch or two depending on how fast the band moves
southward. As it heads towards the southeastern Catskills and
mid Hudson Valley, it looks to be weakening towards daybreak
Tuesday, as the shortwave continues to exit to the east. A few
snow showering may linger in the high terrain into the morning
hours but most should stay dry.
Cloud cover will gradually decrease throughout the day on
Tuesday as dry air works its way into the region. West to
northwest winds will remain breezy overnight and into the day
Tuesday with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph from the Capital District
south during daytime mixing on Tuesday. Winds will finally
diminish Tuesday evening. Temps will mainly be in the 30s on
Tuesday, although some low to mid 40s are possible for the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT thanks to downsloping.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We will trend towards warmer temperatures through the short term
period with low level southerly flow and upper level ridging in
place. Tuesday night looks like the coldest of the period with
lows in the 20s. Temperatures then warm up into the 50s on
Wednesday and into the low 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows on
Wednesday night will be more mild, in the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are in store through the long
term period. An upper-level shortwave will move across our region
Thursday night through Friday but bring nothing more than a few
extra clouds, especially for northern areas. Once this shortwave
passes, upper-level ridging will strengthen over the weekend and
hold into early next week as a surface high pressure system sets up
across the mid-Atlantic. This will bring continuous dry and partly
to mostly clear weather.
Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal during this
period with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s (except some
highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s in the higher
elevations). Record highs during this period at our climate sites
are in the 70s, so it looks like we will come up short of these
values.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although gusty winds have diminish somewhat, westerly winds will
continue to be around 6 to 10 kts through the late evening
hours with a few higher gusts from time to time. Flying
conditions look VFR for the next few hours, with bkn-ovc cigs
around 4500-6000 ft for KALB/KGFL/KPSF and just some high
clouds at KPOU.
As a shortwave passes over the region, lake effect snow off Lake
Ontario will start to shift and may spread towards the TAF sites
for the late night hours, mainly KGFL/KALB/KPSF. There could be
a few hour period of snow showers at each site from 06-11z. Any
snow could lower flying conditions to IFR/LIFR, with visibility
as low as 1/2SM to 2SM. With the passing shortwave, winds will
start to increase from the W-NW at 10 to 15 kts with some higher
gusts. KPOU has a lower threat for snow showers, but will still
include a PROB30 there for a passing MVFR snow shower towards
daybreak.
On Tuesday, flying conditions should be VFR with decreasing
clouds and no more threat for any snow showers. West-northwest
winds will pick up again around 10 to 15 kts with some gusts of
15 to 25 kts possible for all sites.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest winds will gust between 35 and 50 mph into this
evening...
Cold and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday,
with periods of lake effect snow showers across favored areas
through Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow will be heaviest across
the western Adirondacks, with accumulating snow expected in the
western Mohawk Valley, southern Green Mountains and northern
Berkshires. Some snow showers will even be possible at times in
valley locations into Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier weather will
return for Wednesday with most locations warming into the 60s on
Thursday.
Winds will become westerly around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
mph tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be northwest around 10 to 20
mph with gusts to 30 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems anticipated through the next 7 days.
Cold and windy conditions, with lake effect snow showers will
occur into Tuesday. Accumulating snow is expected across the
western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, southern Green
Mountains and northern Berkshires.
Then much warmer and drier conditions will occur from Wednesday
through early next week. Any snow on the ground will melt, but
the snowpack will not have enough water content to cause any
significant runoff.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038-082.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/JLV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JLV
SHORT TERM...JLV
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/JLV
HYDROLOGY...JPV/JLV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue overnight with another round of Lake
Effect precipitation. High pressure builds in later on Tuesday,
bringing much warmer and drier weather for the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1040 PM Update...
Near term forecast remains on track. Surface temperatures are
rising as expected, although perhaps a little warmer than
previously forecasted. Currently in the mid-30s to lower 40s
across much of the region, except still lower 30s across the far
northeast portion of the CWA. In a bit of a lull now with the
lake effect, but near term guidance and radar trends suggest
that a heavy band of mixed lake effect rain, snow and graupel
will move south through Oneida/Onondaga counties between
12-4AM...so another quick burst of 2-5 inches of snow is likely
across the higher terrain of northern Oneida, where the lake
effect snow warning remains in effect. Further south a quick 1
to 3 inches of snow may fall in the predawn hours across
elevations above 1400 feet south of Utica/Syracuse into northern
Cortland, Madison and Chenango counties.
640 PM Update...
As expected an area of light warm advection snow has developed
across much of CNY early this evening. Temperatures are hovering
in the upper 20s to mid-30s out there at this time. so there may
be some minor accumulations under 1 inch through late evening.
NE PA is remaining dry under partly cloudy skies. A plume of
heavier lake effect snow is coming off Lake Ontario, impacting
the Tug Hill Plateau, including far northern Oneida county.
Latest near term guidance is adamant that a strong, intense
band of lake effect snow, rain, graupel will form over Lake
Ontario just after midnight. This band sweeps south along a wind
shift/cold frontal boundary. This band may even contain a few
lightning strikes as it moves south through Onondaga, Oneida
and Madison counties in the predawn hours. Boundary later
temperatures are marginal for snow in this area, as they are
forecast to actually rise a few degrees overnight into the low
to mid-30s. This is a complex, and somewhat uncertain forecast
in this time frame. For now, made some changes to the near term
grids including incorporating the latest QPF forecasts from the
Canadian regional, NAM Nest and HRRR models. Current thinking is
that the precip will actually be mainly rain/graupel for the
lower elevations near Syracuse, but then transitioning to wet
snow across the higher elevations to the south and east. Still
have snow amounts of 6-10 inches across northern Oneida, then
only 1-3" in the Mohawk Valley...around 1 inch or less for the
low elevations near Syracuse. Higher amounts of 2-4 inches
possible in the hills south of Syracuse late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Will take another look with the 10 PM update at
this. Otherwise, gusty winds continue overnight, especially
near that lake effect band. Wind advisory on schedule to expire
at 7PM.
145 pm update...
A shortwave is approaching NY and NE PA this afternoon with
clouds thickening up over the Finger Lakes with those clouds
making their way east. Some precipitation is starting to be
picked up on Radar over the Great Lakes with the snow showers
holding off until the late afternoon. Most of the precipitation
will be light with this shortwave in the early evening but as
the wave progresses overhead, it will help organize a band of
Lake effect snow off of Ontario.
This band is expected to move from North to South through the
evening with the heaviest snow occurring this evening into the
early overnight hours across Northern Oneida county. Snowfall
rates could approach 1-2 inches an hour. As this band begins to
move south of Oneida county after midnight, warm air moving in
aloft reduces lift through the dendritic growth zone as well as
dries it out. That along with surface temperatures near or above
freezing means that rain will be the dominant precipitation type
once the band is south of the NY Thruway. There could still be
brief periods of heavy snow in the band with the heaviest
precipitation mixing down colder air.
Tomorrow, high pressure builds in. NW flow at the surface keeps
temperatures on the cooler side through the day as well as some
low stratus and some lake effect showers. 850 mb temperatures
begin to warm late in the day as flow aloft becomes more
westerly, bringing an end to the lake effect precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM Update:
Very quiet weather in the short term with high pressure dominating
much of the eastern third of the U.S.
Upper trough off the nrn New England coast will continue to lift
east out of the area Tuesday night as a broad but relatively flat
upper ridge stretches from the Midwest into the Northeast. Cold
temperatures are expected early Wednesday morning with mostly clear
skies and strong radiational cooling leading to morning lows in the
20s and lower 30s. However, a warm air advection regime will set up
during the day Wednesday and continue into Thursday with 850mb temps
rising above +10 deg C.
Large scale suppression is expected to keep skies mostly sunny
Wednesday and into the early part of Thursday...which will help turn
afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A weak wave
cutting through the ridge will likely usher in only a thin veil of
high clouds on Thursday, which should not deter from temperatures
climbing into the lower to mid 60s for much of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM Update:
An amplified ridge will build in from the west during this period
and will bring well above normal temperatures through the
weekend. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected each day, with
even some lower 70s possible in some of the valley locations
Saturday and Sunday. This will make it feel more like late
September, rather than early November. Plenty of sunshine is
also expected through the long term period with high pressure
located in the vicinity of the region. Should be a great weekend
to get outside and enjoy the weather.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM Update...
Warm front pushing west across the region this evening has
kicked off some snow showers, but they are starting to let up
now. More intense snow or even rain/snow mix will affect RME and
SYR later tonight/early Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow band
will develop north of Oneida County and then start to dip
southward around midnight tonight. Temperatures in SYR will be
borderline, and it is possible a ra/sn mix will occur, however,
when the band is directly overhead and precipitation is most
intense, it may fall as all snow. Really there is only about a 2
degree difference in the forecast that could cause a rain or
ra/sn mix to just be all snow at SYR. When the heaviest the of
the band goes through, we will likely see snow at RME and
visibility will be quickly reduced to a half mile or less. This
may also be the case at SYR, but by the time the band makes it
to SYR, temperatures will be a bit warmer, so the forecast is
thus more uncertain there.
As the Lake Effect band makes it further south, it will weaken and
become more showery rather then an organized band. Lower
ceilings to MVFR or high end of IFR will be possible at BGM,
ELM, and ITH early tomorrow morning.
Finally, a strong low level jet will be coming through tonight
and low level wind shear conditions will be likely for a period
at all terminals.
Conditions begin to clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions
expected by late morning/early afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
553 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a western ridge and
eastern trof configuration, leaving the Upper Great Lakes under nw
flow this aftn. A shortwave is dropping se across northern Ontario,
near James Bay. Associated sfc low is over southern James Bay with
trailing cold front extending back across northern Ontario. Closer
to home, the day started with plenty of mid and high clouds across
the fcst area under the waa/isentropic ascent in response to the
shortwave. This waa has been fading this aftn, and as a result,
clouds have been thinning out. Temps have risen into the 40s with a
few spots around 50F over w and central Upper MI. It`s been a windy
day over the Keweenaw where gusts were into the 40-45mph range for a
couple of hrs.
Cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will
continue to move s, settling roughly in a nw-se orientation from
roughly Isle Royale across the Keweenaw and central Upper MI to
northern Lake MI late tonight. The front will stall out there before
shifting ne as a warm front on Tue in response to a weak shortwave
rounding the western ridge which will be building eastward. Tonight,
the cold front will drop into the area uneventfully as it weakens
with parent shortwave long gone. Air mass will also be too warm to
support any lake effect pcpn in its vcnty. Expect some lower clouds
to accompany the front, but that`s it. Late tonight, waa/isentropic
ascent will develop in response the next shortwave tracking across s
central Canada. Sharpest isentropic ascent per 295k and 300k sfcs,
roughly 800mb to 700mb, will develop nnw of Lake Superior late
tonight then translate e and se, passing largely n and e of Lake
Superior on Tue. Thus, don`t expect any pcpn concerns tonight or
Tue. Temps tonight will fall back to mostly the upper 20s to mid
30s.
On Tue, the day will start sunny far w while clouds to the e clear
out from w to e during the day. 850mb temps will be pushing 13-14C
over the w and 10C over the e by late aftn. Would be a toasty day,
but the combination of a low early Nov sun angle combined with waa
maintaining inversion strength will limit how warm it becomes at the
sfc. For now, expect highs to range from around 50F e, where ssw
winds up Lake MI and later clearing keep conditions cooler, to
around 60F w. Fcst soundings indicate that limited mixing heights
will prevent the tapping of 35-45kt winds as close as 1-2kft off the
sfc. Will still turn toward the breezy side with gusts of 20-25mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020
The extended looks to be a fairly calm period dominated by a ridge
slowly moving from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic over the
work week and through the weekend. A cold front looks to slowly make
it`s way over the area Sunday and Monday as a low pressure system
lifts from the Rockies to northern Ontario. Details below.
Expect dry and mild conditions due to the jet stream being well
north of the US, allowing a ridge to remain over our area until the
weekend. This ridge will bring temperatures that are well above
average to Upper Michigan, as the NAEFS and ENS have temperature
anomalies in the 99.5th percentile. There may a small chance for
rain Wednesday night into Thursday, as a mid level shortwave will
move through northern Ontario. However, there will be a low level
dry layer and a strong temperature inversion that should prevent any
precipitation from happening; therefore, we should only expect some
clouds Wednesday and Thursday as the shortwave passes through.
Temperatures look to decrease slightly to closer to normal values
with the passage of the shortwave. However, expect temperatures to
rebound the 97.5th percentile (ENS) by the weekend as the jet stream
finally dips down into the western US and a low pressure system
develops near the northern US Rockies.
The low should begin lifting towards northern Ontario Sunday. The
low looks to bring in a cold front towards Upper Michigan Sunday
night into Monday. Winds along the cold front look to be in the 90th
percentile in the upper and mid levels, hinting at enhanced lift
along the frontal boundary. PWaTS along the front also look to be in
the 90th percentile in the NAEFS and 99.5th percentile in the ENS.
With the synoptic forcing and high PWaTs in the air, heavy rainfall
may be a real possibility if this event materializes. Expect
temperatures to return to normal as the cold front passes through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020
VFR conditions are expected at all sites thru this fcst period. LLWS
is possible at KIWD for a time Tue morning and in the afternoon at
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020
As low pres near James Bay shifts se tonight, an associated
weakening cold front will drop over Lake Superior, extending nw to
se across the mid portion of the lake by late tonight and resulting
in winds diminishing. Some gale force gusts will continue into the
evening over the eastern part of Lake Superior. Overnight, winds
will fall off blo 20kt across the entire lake. On Tue, winds will
ramp up again, especially over the e half of the lake, as the pres
gradient tightens btwn strengthening high pres ridge to the e and
low pres troffing extending eastward toward Lake Superior.
Southerly winds will increase to 20-30kt for a time over the
eastern part of the lake. Winds will then fall off to under 15kt
across the entire lake Tue night. Winds should then stay mostly
blo 25kt into late week under a warm pattern with only weak low
pres systems tracking e through central Canada, passing well north
of Lake Superior.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LSZ251-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Rolfson