Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/26/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...Very Cold with Near Record or Record Cold Monday and Tuesday... Forecast concerns in the short term will be light snow accumulations ending and record snow and cold temperatures. Record snowfalls for RST and LSE are weak for today (10/25)...only 0.4" at RST set in 1981 and LSE a trace for eight other years. At 18Z, we had tied those records. Here at ARX, we measured 0.1" through 18Z. See temperature records below. The MPX sounding was had high relative humidity through 500mb and it was mostly -8 deg C to -16 deg C. The 300mb winds did show a coupled jet and combined with lift,the approaching 500mb trough and frontogenesis, we had a band of snow. This band was also coincident with the 850mb front where temperatures were warmer than -9 deg C and light east or northeast winds to the south and colder than -9 deg C temperatures with northeast to northwest wind north of the front. IR satellite, radar, and observations at noon showed a band of light to moderate snow locally from Blue Earth to Rochester toward Chimney Rock. This band extended well to the southwest across Nebraska to Colorado. There were reports of some sleet mixed in and the snow was just pushing into La Crosse. By 3pm...the light snow had overspread much of the forecast area, but was lightest in northeast Iowa and for Clark County. The back edge of the widespread returns from snow was over southwest Minnesota KFRM. The next band is spreading northeast from western Nebraska and will have to metwatch this. Tonight...The forcing will continue, however the 850mb front will shift southward into Illinois by 12Z and we loose. The RAP had a good handle on the 700-500mb frontogenesis this morning and has another round of frontogenesis this evening. The CAMs in general are not as robust with snow this evening with less than an inch of additional accumulation, but should watch for this as we still have some upper level support in the area and are saturated in the dendritic growth zone tonight and will want to keep an eye as the next ripple lifts northeast. Expect the band of light snow to shift southeast of the forecast area by 12Z. The clouds will hang on tonight and this should help low temperatures remain in the 20s. A mix of clouds and sun is on tap for Monday, but it should be cold and may be close to a record . Some lingering moisture could generate some clouds and instability snow showers. The instability showers are showing up across North Dakota and northern Minnesota, so these could develop Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 The extended period is generally dry across the forecast area with moderating temperatures. A broad area of surface high pressure will extend from the Rockies toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the closed 500mb low is forecast to be over AZ/NM. Forecast soundings and timesections hint that there may be some middle clouds that could hinder low temperatures. For now, we do have a record low forecast at RST and a near record low at LSE. Through the work week, a milder westerly flow is forecast to develop Wednesday. A weak cold front slips south Wednesday night and Thursday, however southwest surface flow returns Friday. A ridge of high pressure builds in for Saturday with near normal highs in the 50s. This breaks down for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Light snow will begin to diminish this evening with improving visibilities. MVFR ceilings will last into tonight before lifting to VFR around 07z after the snowfall completely ends. Then the VFR cloud deck will persist into tomorrow before scattering out later in the afternoon. Winds will remain generally from the north/northwest around 10 knots or less throughout the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Record Low Maximum La Crosse is forecast to have a high in the upper 30s Monday. Their record of 34 degrees for 10/26 was set in 1887. RST has a high of 32 forecast, but their record low max is 22 set in 1887. Tuesday, the record low maximum is 29 set in 1925 for La Crosse and the forecast is 40. For RST, the record is 33 set in 1967 and 1933 and the forecast is 34. Record Low Tuesday Morning At La Crosse, the record low of 17 was set in 1976 and the forecast is 20. At Rochester, the record low of 13 was set in 1936 and the forecast is 14. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Peters CLIMATE...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north toward the North Country tonight with precipitation moving into northern New York just before daybreak on Monday. A mix of snow and sleet will be possible across northern New York during the pre-dawn hours but will quickly transition to rain during the early morning hours and spread into Vermont throughout the morning hours. Minor snow accumulations are possible but will quickly melt as temperatures warm into the 40s. Rain will come to an end Monday evening/Monday night with the possibility of a few snow showers later Monday night. Drier weather is is store for the North Country Tuesday and Wednesday but increased chances for precipitation will be seen on Thursday and Friday as the remnants of a tropical system moves across southern New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1013 PM EDT Sunday...Still expecting precipitation to move into the North Country after midnight in advance of an approaching warm front. Precipitation will be light at the onset and through the morning hours, with snow possible on mountains summits during this time. Recent model guidance has trended quicker with the onset of precipitation, and slight adjustments were made to the forecast accordingly. In addition, recent model guidance has indicated cooler temperatures at mid-levels, thus decreasing the likelihood of any mixed-precipitation for higher elevations. For such reasons, the areal coverage of sleet/snow mix has been decreased, with rain or snow a more likely solution. All precipitation now looks to transition entirely to rain between 8 AM and 11 AM as temperatures warm above freezing across the forecast area. The rest of the going forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below. Previous Discussion...Just as the low clouds finally eroded this morning, mid-level clouds quickly streamed into the region from the southwest to produce filtered sunshine this afternoon. This abundance of cloud cover coupled with a cold air mass overhead has causes our temperatures to struggle to warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Cloud cover will only continue to increase through the afternoon and evening hours as a warm front lifts north toward the region. Given warm air advection in the low to mid-levels and increased cloudiness, we have gone ahead and bumped temperatures up a few degrees overnight. Precipitation ahead of an approaching warm front will begin to move into northern New York after midnight tonight. Precipitation will likely start off as a quick shot of snow across northern New York and then will quickly begin to mix with some sleet as temperatures aloft begin to warm. Based on the latest NAM and HRRR thermal profiles, the warm nose in combination with wet-bulbing at the sfc will lead to a near isothermal profile which will limit the depth of the elevated warm layer. This should keep snow from completely melting as it falls to ground which increases the refreeze potential of the hydrometeors. This snow/sleet mix will likely last just an hour or two before temperatures quickly warm above freezing and the mixes precipitation changes to rain around sunrise. Further east in Vermont, precipitation will mainly fall as rain as the warm air should funnel up the Champlain Valley with increasingly southerly winds and spread across the remainder of the state right at the onset of precipitation. Nevertheless, a quick tenth or two of snow accumulation may be possible but would quickly melt as temperatures warm into the 40s on Monday. Rain will taper off to rain showers Monday night with a few snow showers possible across the northern Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont. However, don`t get too excited as it`ll be a race between cold air filtering back into the region behind a cold font and moisture exiting to the east. Any snow showers that do occur would likely drop little to no accumulation. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Fairly quiet for this period with surface high pressure cresting over the region. A few snow/rain showers will linger over the higher terrain early Tuesday morning, but these will dissipate by afternoon as drier air works into the area. However, another shot of increasing moisture will return later in the afternoon/evening as an upper jet and shortwave quickly move across the Great Lakes and over the North Country. These features may allow a few rain or snow showers to develop, first over the the Adirondacks late Tuesday afternoon and eventually into the higher terrain of Vermont in the evening. The increased moisture will be brief however, so should any precipitation develop, it would be light in nature and come to an end by midnight or so with drier air returning. Cooler-than-normal conditions will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night; highs will mainly be in the 40s with some locations not getting out of the 30s. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s to around 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...The main concern for the long term will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta, which is progged to lift northward from the Gulf Coast, along the Appalachians to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the week. Meanwhile, a potent upper low will move from the Four Corners region eastward, also eventually moving off the East Coast. There are still model differences in the handling of these two systems, but consensus does indicate we`ll see precipitation spreading over at least our southern sections sometime in the Thursday afternoon-Friday morning timeframe, though the heaviest QPF looks to remain to our south. Have introduced low- chance PoPs for this timeframe. Ahead of this system, high pressure will keep Wednesday and Wednesday night dry, with daytime temperatures continuing in the 40s to around 50 and overnight lows in the 30s. Once the upper trough/northern stream cold front pushes to our east on Friday, Canadian high pressure will bring much colder air to our region for the end of the week. Friday and Friday night in particular look quite chilly, with highs only in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout overnight hours with overcast mid- level clouds expected by late this evening. We will see ceilings drop to MVFR after 06Z across northern New York and after 09Z across Vermont with many terminals trending toward IFR ceilings by 12Z Monday. Precipitation ahead of a warm front will move into northern New York late tonight with a mix of snow and sleet possible at KSLK and KMSS for about 2 hours before transitioning over to rain as temperatures warm. This could produce a brief period of IFR visibilities as frozen precipitation falls but will improve slightly as mixed precipitation changes over to rain. Based on the latest temperature trends, any precipitation across Vermont is expected to fall as rain which will likely keep visibilities between 5 and 7 SM throughout the day. All sites besides KMSS will have LLWS develop during Monday afternoon with low level jet around 50 kts at 850 mb passing overhead and winds at the surface still under 15 kts. Outlook... Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay/Hammond SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will track up the east coast tonight. Behind this system, a weakening cold front will push in from the Great Lakes on Monday, then stall out south of the state. High pressure is likely to briefly build into Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Then, the remnants of Zeta are likely to track just south of the state next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Vort max can be imagined/seen in the radar returns floating directly over KCCX around 02Z. It is such a fine-scale feature that it appears to not be modeled well. The negative/ detrimental forcing to the west of that feature is already evident. There is very little precip behind the feature and it is spotty at worst. Expect some precip to fill in eventually, but the next few hours should see our main slug of precip continue to slide NE. Better forcing is progged to come along late tonight for mainly the NW third/half of the CWA. Prev... Light rain or drizzle cover almost the entire radar scope at this point, but the nrn tier counties are staying dry thus far with sfc dewpoints in the u20s and l30s. Temps probably won`t change more than 5F thru the night, and may rise slightly later tonight as the (light) wind continues to veer. 36F at K2G4 (Oakland MD) and 37F at K2G4 (Somerset) makes it seem like it could be pretty close to being snow there! But, the lowest 8-10kft is entirely above freezing with a warm nose of 7C per latest RAP fcst sounding. Prev... Afternoon satellite/radar composite shows steadiest light rainfall occurring over coastal MD/DE southwards to eastern VA. Very light rain and drizzle covers much of the southern third of central PA. Cool, dry and stable boundary layer air lies to the north, with air temperatures in the mid to upper 40s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 30s. Deep layer moisture conts to slowly increase from south to north throughout the day, with 0.75" PW contour shifting to the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. By that time, best forcing/UVM focused from the Ridge and Valley Region and Lower Susq for highest POPs there into tonight. Best forcing passes east of the region by later tonight, but lingering very light rain or drizzle appear likely overnight given the southeast flow and model soundings that are nearly saturated from the surface to 700mb. Highest POPs overnight are placed across the northern mountains, where orographic forcing should translate to measurable rain in most spots. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Morning light rain or drizzle gives way to some improvement Monday afternoon , as boundary layer flow shifts to the south ahead of approaching cold/occluded front. The southern counties stand the best chance of breaking into the warm sector with brightening skies and temperatures rising into the 60s. Elsewhere, the prospects of any clearing appear dim across the northern mountains based on model soundings. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few light showers are possible mainly across the NW Mon night as a weak upper disturbance moves over a low-mid level stalled frontal boundary. A similar disturbance will bring another chance of light rain showers across the west Tue afternoon and evening. The best day for dry conditions will be Wednesday. A series of fronts, a cutoff low from the southwestern states, and the remains of Zeta track toward the area on Thursday into Friday. Long range guidance continues to show potential for 1 inch or more of rain in this period. Colder air will work into the area on Friday. It is possible that some snow could mix across the far north for a brief time, before the moisture pulls away. A large high will bring dry and colder weather behind the weather system Friday. This high is abnormally large and cold, will cover much of the lower 48 states for a brief time, before the westerlies lift quickly back to the north. The airmass is very cold for late October, mainly records are expected to fall across the west early this week. Minus 20 air at 850 mb forecast west of Hudson Bay later this week. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low cigs continue across the area with all terminals MVFR or lower. In general, terminals in the Laurels and across the lower Susq valley were IFR at 03z. Conditions will continue to worsen tonight as cigs and vsby continue to lower in low clouds and areas of drizzle. LIFR is possible late tonight or early Mon at BFD and JST. IFR conditions will persist into much of the day Monday for most of the area. Cigs may rise to low-end MVFR in the central mountains and perhaps the lower Susq Mon afternoon as low level flow turns to a more SWrly downsloping direction. Outlook... Sun night-Tue...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and and periodic light rain. Wed...Mostly VFR. Thu...More wet weather expected with MVFR and IFR conditions possible. Friday...MVFR and IFR conditions expected with showers. Windy. Improving conditions late, as showers move out of the area. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert AVIATION...Martin/Colbert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
710 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Cloudy, cold and somewhat breezy conditions were found across the area this afternoon. 2 pm temperatures, from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south and east, were running about 20 degrees below average late October highs. Area radars and surface reports showed a broad area of snow in an axis of frontogenetical forcing from northern NE, through northern IA, southern MN into western WI. Weak lift has been grazing eastern IA at times today, but was being undercut by a dry low level north to northeast flow, advecting an airmass with dewpoints only in the 20s.This was leading to evaporation and gradually lowering cloud bases. Aloft, the flow was strong out of the west-southwest ahead of a positive tilted trough from the Dakotas to ID. Weak shortwaves embedded in this flow and an upper level jet couplet will continue to provide rounds of lift, primarily f-gen forcing, that will overspread the forecast area tonight through early Monday, leading to widespread light precipitation, likely in the form of snow. Colder, early winter-like temperatures then follow for Monday night, followed by slightly warmer, but continued below normal temperatures for much of the week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Pinpointing areas of enhanced lift and the associated onset of accumulating snowfall remains the challenge in the near term. Temperatures will be initially marginal, or too warm, for snow over much of the area, but with the low dewpoints, the wet bulb cooling should lead to enough cooling where snow begins to reach the surface, supporting precipitation mostly in the form of snow tonight and Monday. The banded nature of the lift and continued influx of dry air are still expected to limit accumulations to widespread trace or a dusting, with smaller bands up to one inch. Accumulations will be primarily on grass and elevated surfaces at the onset, followed by possible light accumulation on paved surfaces late tonight into Monday morning, possibly leading to slick conditions for the morning commute. Tonight, the initial onset will likely occur in two locations. One will be over the highway 20 corridor, closest to the on-going snow that was as close as Waterloo and Oelwein at 2 pm. Light snow will likely be falling there by sunset. The other may set up along the I-80 corridor from east central IA into NW IL this evening, based on a weak upper level feature in central IA and related light precip over south central IA. Hints of virga on KDVN radar into east central IA also back this potential development. These trends will be watched closely, but for now, slight to low end chance pops are in place for this evening, increasing to likely after midnight when better upper divergence develops over eastern IA into NW IL to enhance f-gen bands. Confidence in where these will set up is low, thus leading to widespread chance to likely pops overnight. Modest lift, mostly outside of the dendritic growth zone and a lack of instability should keep snowfall rates low and thus overnight totals less than one inch. Monday morning: Short term models, especially the RAP suggest another F-gen axis and round of possible light measurable snow, setting up from roughly OTM to MLI around 6 am to 8 am. While confidence in this is not high, it will be worth watching overnight for possible impacts on the morning commute. Otherwise, lift wanes over the north by mid morning and diminishes southward. Cannot rule out at least light precipitation lingering in the far south through much of the day. Cloud cover and continued cold air advection will hold high temperatures in most areas in the 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Key Messages... 1) Cold, possibly near-record near Dubuque, Tue morning 2) Dry Tue and Wed, mainly rain south Thu, then dry again Fri through Sunday 3) Well below normal Tuesday with gradual warming trend to slightly below normal by next weekend Monday night into Tuesday morning, skies will gradually clear from NW to SE as a ridge of high pressure extending from the central Plains into the upper MS River Valley builds into the area. The clearing skies, dry air mass in place, and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s to lower 30s. Some cold drainage areas in the NW third of the CWA may slip into the upper teens. The current forecast low for the Dubuque Airport is 22F, which is only 3 degrees above the record low. Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will provide dry conditions for the area, while a weak low remains over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley region awaiting possible phasing with Zeta. Highs will go from the chilly upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday, to the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday, the low in the southern Plains will phase with the remnants of Zeta as it lifts NE from the Gulf into TN. It is still a little uncertain on the track and phasing, but this could bring some wet weather to areas south of Highway 30 for Thursday. The current blend has the best chances (30-40 percent) across the southern third of the CWA. This is day 5, thus there is plenty of time to fine tune the details. Friday through Sunday, high pressure will return to the area bringing milder conditions along with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will be in the 50s, but will still be a touch below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Light to moderate snow was slowly moving into the area across western Iowa. Clouds will begin to lower as well, especially closer to 12z where MVFR then eventually IFR cigs will be into the area. Light snow will likely affect CID and DBQ before a burst of snow reaches MLI near 12z Monday. This snow could lead to a quick half inch on elevated surfaces along with reductions of vsbys to under 1 mile. Confidence in timing and location of band keeps this from entering the TAF. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sheets SHORT TERM...Sheets LONG TERM...14 AVIATION...Gibbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .AVIATION... Southerly flow and VFR conditions prevail across the airports this evening and expect this to continue for the next several hours before MVFR and possible IFR conditions settle in overnight. These restrictions are likely to continue through much of the remaining period. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow and while there remains an outside chance that the front hangs up north of the area, will stick with the consensus of the high-res guidance that favors the cold and dense airmass to make it into the area late tomorrow afternoon. Should see some possible drizzle by morning and possible showers around and behind the frontal passage. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... Warmer conditions prevail today as southerly low level flow has developed. Low level moisture will also continue to steadily increase through the afternoon and tonight. This will lead to much warmer overnight lows tonight with some locations stuck in the low 70s. Also, low stratus is expected to develop again tonight and also the potential for some isolated showers and patchy drizzle beneath the inversion early Monday morning. The main forecast concern is the much talked about cold front, which this afternoon stretched from south of Wichita Falls to south of Lubbock. The front should progress south tonight through West- Central Texas. The leading edge of the frontal air mass will become more shallow as it approaches South-Central Texas Monday, given the mid and upper level low cutting off to the west. However, the air mass to the north of the front is cold and dense. We are therefore favoring the faster 12Z 3KM NAM, ARW, NMM, and HRRR solutions. These tend to handle shallow cold air masses. While the NAM struggled with the last shallow front last Monday, this airmass is denser. These faster models also have some support from the 12Z ECMWF and CMC with the farther southward progression of the front by Monday night. With that said, we are showing the front entering the Hill Country and Val Verde County between 10AM-2PM and into the I-35 corridor 3PM-7PM. The frontal position and timing becomes much less certain east of I-35, if it makes it. Temperatures should sharply fall in the afternoon across the Hill Country behind the front, into the upper 40s and lower 50s by sunset. Farther south the high temperature forecast is a little more tricky, but generally with a frontal passage that late in the afternoon highs should be able to make it into the low 80s near and east of the I-35 corridor and then sharply fall in the evening, assuming the front moves through. By Tuesday morning we should see most of the area in the 40s, with upper 30s possible across the northern Hill Country. Showers will be possible along and ahead of the front. Isentropic ascent behind the front should allow for chances for rain to continue Monday night, especially across the western half of the CWA. Finally, it should be noted that the GFS continues to be a large outlier on the 12Z run, hanging the front to the north of the area Monday and Monday night as it develops a frontal wave along it just to the northwest of the CWA. Obviously there is a huge bust potential in the temperatures Monday afternoon and Monday night if the GFS were to verify. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... As mentioned above, there is still quite a discrepancy in the models as far as temperatures, with the GFS a good 20 plus degrees warmer than the NAM for Tuesday, as it slows the progression of front into the area. For this package, highs on Tuesday are a blended solution weighted toward the NAM. So, given that the front does not hang up in the middle of our CWA, temperatures Tuesday will be in the 40s for the Hill Country, 50s along and around the I-35 corridor, and low 60s along the Coastal Plains. Better chances for showers with this system extend through Wednesday as the upper low moves across North Texas. Rain totals will likely stay below 1 inch with better chance for the higher totals in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Wednesday, the rain chances along the clouds will clear from west to east. High on Wednesday will still be below normal with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Thursday and into the weekend show a pleasant cool and dry forecast with highs staying in the 70s for most of the area through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 79 46 51 47 / 20 50 50 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 80 47 53 47 / 20 40 50 40 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 81 47 55 48 / 20 30 50 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 67 72 41 46 42 / 30 60 50 50 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 76 44 49 44 / 10 20 70 60 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 76 44 49 45 / 20 60 50 50 40 Hondo Muni Airport 71 80 47 54 45 / 20 20 40 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 80 47 54 47 / 20 30 50 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 82 50 59 51 / 10 30 40 30 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 80 47 55 48 / 20 30 50 50 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 84 49 56 49 / 20 20 40 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire Long-Term...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance and new information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Light snow continued across the area, probably mixed with a little rain at times along the immediate lakeshore. The current band of precipitation should shift east of the area in a few hours, leaving just some occasional light snow and flurries for the rest of the evening. The HRRR suggested another wave of light precipitation would lift across about the SE 1/3 of the area after midnight. There was little support for that on the other model QPFs, but the radar mosaic did show increasing returns in SW IA shifting NE, and the latest NAM/GFS runs had an area of FGEN coming across the area at that time that would support some weak ascent and light precipitation. Increased PoPs as little and carried light precipitation later into the night to support this possibility. Will continue to monitor, and if radar trends continue to look favorable will increase PoPs further for E-C WI for the late night period. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Surface observations at 19Z indicated that light snow had started across much of central and north- central WI. A little farther south light rain was being reported in Wautoma. Will continue to see light snow spread east across the area during the next couple hours. Rain will likely mix with the snow across east- central WI were sfc temperatures are warmer in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Temps cool off after sunset, with any mixed rain/snow across the east transitioning to snow aside from right along Lake Michigan. Precip is being driven by a coupled upper jet and some weak fgen which will continue to influence the area through tonight. While there remains plenty of moisture and saturation through the DGZ, this forcing is weak. Therefore, very minor changes made to the QPF/snowfall total forecast, with up to an inch possible across central and northern Wisconsin, and a couple tenths forecast across east- central WI where more rain will occur. While amounts are minor, this will still be enough to create some slick spots on roadways along with lower visibilities. Downstream obs indicate visibility as low as 1 mile is possible as the snow moves through. Tonight...Precip comes to end for most locations between 06Z to 12Z as a sfc high pressure stretches into the area wiping out much of the moisture, and the forcing shifts south. The exception is northern Vilas County where northwest winds may create some lake enhanced snow showers or flurries through mid- morning, and in far eastern WI where light snow may not end until shortly after sunrise. With overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s, it`s possible area roads remain slippery in spots for the morning commute. Monday...Clouds will stick around through the morning with some breaks possible in the afternoon. As Wisconsin remains situated in a broad upper trough, cooler temps continue, with highs ranging from about 32 to 40 degrees tomorrow, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late October. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Main concerns in the extend forecast will be the colder than normal temperatures through much of the work week. Monday night through Tuesday night: Yet another trough is expected to pass through the western Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. At the same time, a stronger surface ridge is expected to build across the area and linger through much of this time period. The anticyclonic flow and dry air in place, will keep precipitation-free conditions across the area. Expect gradual clearing conditions Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 30s with overnight lows into the low teens to low 20s. A few single digits are possible in the typical cold spots on Monday night. Wednesday into Wednesday night: The next/flatter trough axis is expected to pass through the area during this time period. A cold front is also forecast to pass through northeast Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, before shifting to the east overnight. Moisture looks to be fairly limited, but it is possible that some light rain/snow showers could develop across the area. If any precipitation does develop, the best chances would be near the Upper Peninsula border. At this point, have kept the ongoing dry forecast. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows are forecast to be in the low 20s to low 30s. Rest of the extended: Much of the rest of the forecast period looks to be fairly quiet overall. Moisture will be fairly limited, so precipitation chances will be greatly reduced through much of the extended. Below normal temperatures will linger through Thursday before a gradual warming trend begins for the end of the work week. This will be as a western ridge begins to shift east and flatten. Will stick with a consensus of the models for that time period, bringing mainly quiet conditions and temperatures warming closer to normal. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Anticipate the current mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to settle in at primarily MVFR during the evening. Need to see continued support on radar before introducing another period of IFR visibilities to E-C WI late tonight. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........Skowronski SHORT TERM.....KLJ LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
753 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 753 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Rain and snow will move into portions of central Illinois overnight, with better chances of more widespread rain coming during the late morning into the evening. Expect precipitation to linger through Monday night south of I-70. After a couple dry days, another round of rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 A few areas of light rain/drizzle have been tracking northeast near and east of I-57 this evening, with just a couple spots receiving measurable rain. Main feature remains the area of rain/snow advancing east across Iowa. Latest HRRR suggests an arrival around midnight near Galesburg, with some expansion southwest along the Illinois River valley as the night progresses. Forecast soundings indicate potential for a complete switchover near Galesburg for a couple hours around sunrise, with more of a rain/snow mix across the Illinois River valley. Meanwhile, precipitation expected to quickly spread northeast from Kansas early Monday morning. Some of the guidance indicates perhaps a quicker arrival of this latter precipitation, so PoP`s were increased some across the southwest CWA during the morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Clouds continue to inhibit much in terms of temperature acceleration. These clouds are associated with an advancing large-scale weather system that will move over the Midwest through the first half of the week. Watching radar this afternoon, some light returns have developed across the southeastern CWA, due to the baroclinic frontal zone. These light sprinkles will be possible through the evening, before dissipating after sunset. The main system will continue to approach the Midwest overnight, with temperatures again dropping to the 30s and 40s. As the slightly tilted upper level shifts southward, this will move the current radar returns across the upper Midwest to the south. Heading into early Monday morning, temps will be near freezing along and northwest of the Illinois River Valley, allowing for the development of snow in the lower atmosphere. At this time, with the warm sfc layer, not expecting any freezing rain...limiting all precip to snowfall or rain. As temperatures begin to warm through the morning, should see the wintry mix change to all rainfall from nw to se. During the afternoon, a weak wave will slide through the southern half of Illinois, enhancing rainfall chances across the southern CWA. This will be aided by upper level High pressure off the se coast of the US, lifting additional moisture to the region. As with past model runs, the total amount of precipitation remains maxed out near 0.50 inches along the I-70 corridor. Further south, across PAH/LSX CWA, amounts range upwards of 1 inch. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Heading through Monday night, the upper level split Lows will work south and east, allowing for precipitation to begin ending from nw to se. This will slowly work through the region overnight into Tuesday, when the system will lose moisture feeding. Now introduce another tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, along with the cut-off Low from the desert sw that was associated with the system that arrives tonight. As the Low advances eastward through the far southern Plains, it will be held back by the approaching tropical system mid-week. Once the tropical system moves onshore, the sfc Low will be directed northeast, as the tropical remnants maintain control of the sfc weather pattern. This will move into the Ohio River Valley region during the early part of Thursday. Current models have updated to bring the rainfall on the backside of the system, along with remaining moisture from the cut-off Low through the central and southern Illinois area. If this holds, widespread rainfall will be likely throughout Thursday, before another stretch of dry weather and High pressure takes hold and dominates through the weekend. Models appear quiet from about Friday through Sunday, with the possibility of continued quiet weather into the next week...but with model predictions that far out, things are likely to change. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Ceilings have slipped below 3,000 feet at the central Illinois TAF sites, and should remain MVFR through the upcoming forecast period. Some gradual lowering of ceilings are expected after 06Z and will generally be a bit above 1,000 feet into Monday afternoon. While some light rain/snow mix will occur at times late tonight into Monday morning, areas from KSPI-KCMI most likely to see steady rain occur through the afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 A historic October cold Spell is underway across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon with record cold high temperatures. The RAP model suggests the potential for 1 or 2 hours of partial clearing early Monday morning. Although precipitable water remains relatively high, around 0.20 inches, the breaks in the cloud cover would support a brief period of radiational cooling which could send lows below zero across Sheridan and western Cherry counties. The temperature forecast tonight uses the bias corrected MAV guidance which sends temperatures below zero northwest, but preserves lows in the teens and single digits south and east where cloud cover will block radiational cooling. The first and primary snow event across nrn Nebraska produced 4 to 8 inches of snow. A second area of snow has developed across wrn Nebraska this afternoon and a third is expected across southwest Nebraska later this evening. These areas of snow should be capable of 2 to 4 inches of snowfall. The Winter Storm warning and Winter Weather Advisory can be cancelled across nrn Nebraska where an inch or less snow is in the forecast. Sheridan county will remain in the winter storm warning for orographic snow and lee convergence around the Black Hills. Clear skies are expected across nrn Nebraska Monday with gradual clearing in place across srn Nebraska. The temperature forecast for record cold highs in the teens and lower 20s Monday is based on the bias corrected short term model blend. It is a warmer forecast than the very cold bias corrected MAV guidance. Arctic high pressure moves overhead Monday and then slowly south through wrn KS Monday night. The models are in very good agreement continuing cold air advection Monday and Monday night with h850mb temperatures bottoming out in the Platte Valley near -15C Tuesday morning. During this same time, precipitable water falls to 0.10 inches or less. Some models delay this dry air until a few hours past sunrise but all models show it across the Sandhills overnight. Very strong radiational cooling is expected across the Sandhills for several hours Monday night which should drain south into the Platte valleys. Lows near or below zero are in place across the wrn Sandhills and Platte valleys using the bias corrected MAV guidance. West winds at 5 to 10 mph will produce wind chill readings below -20F. Later forecasts might include a wind chill advisory for parts of wrn Nebraska. This event could be historic as subzero temperatures have never been recorded during October in North Platte where weather records began in 1874. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 There is little change in the extended forecast philosophy. The models are in very good agreement warming temperatures at the h850mb level to around 15C by next weekend. This should support highs in the 60s as suggested by both the GFS and ECM guidance. The blended forecast has 50s to around 60 in place. Later forecasts will likely mark highs up a few degrees. Another potential impact to the extended forecast is the upper level low swinging through the srn Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The system has the potential to spread high cloudiness across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The system will also pull a hybrid Pacific Canadian cold front through Nebraska. Otherwise the extended forecast is uneventful and a dry forecast is in place Tuesday through Sunday. A slight chance of rain or snow is in place across just far southern Nebraska for the upper low moving through the srn Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Light to moderate snow continues across much of the forecast area, although the primary band of snow will slowly drop through southwest Nebraska tonight. Bouts of IFR cigs/visby are likely with the main band, which roughly lines up from KOGA to KLBF to KBBW as of 25/23z. Meanwhile, winds lighten and low cloud cover begins to break across northern Nebraska overnight. All terminals should return to VFR with little to no precip by 26/15z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Monday for NEZ022>024-035-036-056>058-069. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ037-038-059- 070-071. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NEZ004. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
916 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .UPDATE... 915 PM CDT The main weather message of periodic light precipitation overnight into Monday morning, some of which will be light snow, continues as is. The main forecast update was to increase precipitation chances for the early overnight period (~12-3 a.m.) for north of I-80, where some rain/snow...mainly looking more likely, and in some locations especially along/north of I-88 this will probably just be snow. We can envision a dusting to a half inch of snow with this being possible. Precipitation type after that remains somewhat uncertain, owing to marginal vertical profiles with respect to moisture, but there will likely be periodic light precipitation through the A.M. hours especially over the northern and central forecast area. Impacts to the morning commute still look to be limited - wet roads and possibly some reduced visibility due to pockets of falling snow - are the most likely outcome. Quite the temperature map early this evening, especially for October, showing single digit surface temperatures underneath a stout surface high pressure of 1039 mb over Montana and Wyoming. The cold air is spilling eastward from this with northerly flow across the local area and temperatures down into the mid 30s in the far northern CWA. Aloft, a marked temperature gradient was observed at 700 mb on 00Z Plains soundings, with 17C degrees of difference between DDC and LBF and almost as much further east between SGF and OAX. This gradient is being overrode by a 120 kt upper jet at 250 mb as sampled at OAX and seen on the various water vapor ABIs on GOES-16. This evening has seen a blossoming of precipitation associated with this speed max and associated mid- level wave as well as implied frontogenesis. These forcing mechanisms which will move over the area overnight. Another low amplitude wave was located further southwest entering western Kansas and this should help continue, or re-invigorate chances over the CWA during the post-daybreak hours. Extrapolating the current precipitation over Iowa keeps much of it just north of the CWA, however the HRRR and especially experimental HRRR have been keying in on increasing direct frontal circulation strengthening and precipitation increasing through midnight across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois spreading into north central Illinois shortly after. Given the placement of the speed max and low amplitude wave, this seems plausible and the Iowa activity thus far has generally been outpacing most guidance, adding a little more credibility to precipitation arriving a smidge earlier. For precipitation type, cloud top temperatures currently over the area would indicate little saturation in the ice nucleation layer, but to the west as that wave approaches there has been an increase in saturation depth (also shown on the 00Z OAX sounding). While some observations have reported unknown precipitation or even rain, most of the mPING reports and radar presentation over Iowa have pointed toward snow. Wet bulb cooling will also help for snow to be more dominant in the northern CWA, at least if the column is saturated enough. If it`s not, then a light rain or drizzle would be more favored. The same will be true through the rest of the morning when the next low amplitude wave is forecast to pass, although high- resolution models show greater spread in placement with the low QPF from that. MTF && .SHORT TERM... Through Monday night... 310 PM...Primary forecast concern and challenge remains the potential for an area of light snow across northwest IL Monday morning. A few lake effect rain showers will be possible this evening into the overnight hours and have been fairly persistent on the hrrr runs today. Confidence is rather low for how far inland these move into IL. Have increase pops a bit for this possibility but these should move southeast into early Monday morning likely affecting far southeast Cook and parts of northwest IN by daybreak Monday morning. Temperatures near/over the lake look to remain near 40 or warmer so precip type with this activity is expected to be all rain. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding precipitation chances for tonight into Monday...though fairly good agreement that precip/qpf amounts will be light. With weak forcing with this wave...precipitation may also be intermittent. However...just about all the models are showing some amount of precipitation and opted to bump pops up to likely...while maintaining the low qpf amounts. Enough colder air spreads into the area that precip will likely mix with and then change to snow across the northwest cwa. If there is a persistent area of light snow...there will likely be a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow especially on grassy surfaces...mainly northwest of a ugn/arr/vys line. The rain may mix with snow across the Chicago metro area but low confidence regarding how far southeast into the cwa there could be a mix and where precip remains mixed...likely no accumulation. Precipitation appears to diminish from north to south from mid morning to mid afternoon Monday and there remains high uncertainty for how much precipitation may occur Monday night as several of the models now show precipitation in the far southern cwa...along with the potential for some lake effect rain showers into Indiana Monday night. Trimmed pops some during Monday afternoon and Monday evening but if trends continue...much of this time period could end up being dry. High temps on Monday may struggle to reach 40 across much of the northwest cwa and if clouds were to scatter out across the north by Tuesday morning...low temps during that time period could be several degrees colder than current upper 20s. cms && .LONG TERM... 341 PM CDT Tuesday through Sunday... A relatively quieter, but cool stretch of weather appears to be on hand for the long term portion of the forecast. The main highlight of the extended period appears to be the potential for precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. While some precipitation from Monday`s system could linger across our southeastern CWA Tuesday morning, Tuesday is otherwise expected to be a dry, but seasonably cool day with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows around or below freezing. Wednesday is also looking like a mostly dry day, but a bit warmer than Tuesday with highs in the low-mid 50s. Our next chance for precipitation will come Wednesday night and Thursday as unsettled weather in the southern CONUS gets pulled northeastward. A closed upper low is expected to track eastward across the southern Plains on Wednesday, with an associated surface low expected to blossom beneath the nose of the southern stream jet. At around the same time, Tropical Storm/Hurricane Zeta will be making landfall on the Gulf Coast and will interact with the low pressure system as it continues inland. Guidance varies somewhat over exactly how these two systems will evolve as they interact, but most long range guidance indicates that an expansive precip shield will build northward late on Wednesday into Thursday. There is some inconsistency between the guidance as to how far north this precip shield will end up reaching, so felt that current NBM PoPs for Thursday seemed reasonable with chance PoPs more or less south of I-80 and slight chance PoPs farther northward. Depending on how much the surface low deepens as it tracks to the south of the area, Thursday also has the potential to be a fairly gusty day with northerly wind gusts of around 30 mph possible. Things will quiet down once more on Friday and remain that way into Halloween weekend as high pressure develops across the region amidst broad central CONUS ridging. Highs in the mid-upper 50s are currently forecast for this time frame before a cold front drops south through the region on Sunday and likely cools temperatures down a bit for the beginning of the following work week. Current indications are that this will be a dry front, and thus, there is currently no formal precip mention in the forecast for Sunday. Ogorek && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Mixed MVFR/VFR ceilings at TAF issuance will continue well into this evening before lowering into low-end MVFR levels late this evening into Monday morning as a series of weak mid-level disturbances track across the region. Lake effect rain showers beginning to develop offshore of southeast Wisconsin are expected to drift south across ORD/MDW and into GYY overnight. Ceilings may briefly lower into high-end IFR levels at ORD/MDW as this occurs. Additionally, a convergent boundary with these showers will allow winds to back just west of north overnight through Monday morning. Slightly colder conditions will also advect into northern Illinois overnight as the multiple disturbances moves through the region. While confidence is relatively high that precip will occur, the precipitation type is less certain. Freezing levels will lower below 1kft across north-central and northeast Illinois, including Chicago, late tonight. Precip is likely to fall as light SN at RFD. SN chances will gradually decrease and RA chances will increase with eastward extent, but a RA/SN mix and possibly all SN at times, is expected from roughly 11-15Z at ORD and potentially MDW. Visibility should remain MVFR or higher, but could briefly lower into IFR levels with any persistent switch to all SN. Precip will gradually end while becoming all rain by early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will persist through the remainder of the day and potentially well into the evening Monday. Winds during the afternoon will likely vary from 350-010, then favor slightly west of north by the evening. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 7 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1006 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .DISCUSSION... Expect a cold and chilly night tonight, with lows in the lower 50s again. Drizzle has begun again around the area with the latest GOES Satellite showing a thick stratus deck and a few high clouds. Expect high pressure through tomorrow night with temperatures a lot like todays highs. Only changes made to the forecast were to temperatures to account for cloud cover. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the forecast. SGW PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/ DISCUSSION... Another dreary day across the Mid-South. Drizzle has finally stopped, but low clouds continue to linger across the majority of the FA. Latest GOES satellite shows a clear slot moving north central Mississippi, however, more low clouds are building in from the west. Temperatures are running below guidance again, with readings only in the 50s areawide. Short term...Tonight through Wednesday Night... Mainly benign weather will be the rule through at least tomorrow night. Low clouds will hang around overnight, keeping temperatures from falling too much. We should see temperatures warm a bit more on Monday, as clouds lift a bit. Expect temperatures to rise into the 60s areawide with dry conditions. By Monday night, showers will begin to move into northeast Arkansas as a cold front moves into the area. This front is expected to remain stalled north of I-40 through at least Tuesday afternoon. By late Tuesday, the front is expected to lift back north as a warm front. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to southern parts of the forecast area. Tropical Storm Zeta, currently near the Yucatan Peninsula, is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast sometime during the day on Wednesday. Models differ greatly on location and intensity of Zeta. The EURO keeps Zeta rather weak and brings it much further west, while the GFS continues a much stronger storm making landfall along the Florida Panhandle. Both models also struggle to phase the system with the upper level low over the Southern Plains. The setup still remains messy at this time. Nonetheless, the main impact still appears to be bouts of heavy rainfall early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday evening. Early WPC QPF totals range from 2 to 4 inches across the entire area. Besides heavy rainfall, the severe threat looks low. Will continue with current HWO wording for now. Long Term...Thursday through next weekend... Still some timing differences on Thursday, as the GFS keeps light rain over the region on Thursday, whereas, the EURO lifts the system out of the region quickly. By Friday, both models are in agreement that surface high pressure will build in through the weekend. This will lead to a dry and seasonable pattern through early next week. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Primary forecast concern remains ceilings, which will start out the evening similar to the past two days, near the IFR/MVFR threshold, with patchy drizzle. Unlike the past two days, short range ensembles, HRRR and LAV guidance depict overnight ceiling improvement above the FL020 alternate fuel threshold, with even some VFR ceilings between MEM and JBR. The optimistic ceiling scenarios accompany decreasing surface dewpoints, along the reduced coverage of drizzle under low amplitude midlevel ridging. 00Z TAFs tend toward more persistence and 18Z NAM Bufr soundings that depicted a persistent saturated low level inversion well into Monday. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2020 Lake-effect snow continues this afternoon, with decent snowfall rates seen across Marquette County and out west near Ironwood to Bergland as a mesolow could be seen moving onshore via GOES imagery. IWD observations have been down near 1/2 mile to 1/4 at times, which usually suggests 1 inch an hour rates. The caveat to all this is with sfc temperatures near freezing and with an abv freezing ground, accumulations and roadways don`t seem to be as much and bad as we`d normally see if it was say late November into December. MDOT camera on M64 near Merriweather, shows decent snowfall rates and accumulation on trees, but the roadway is open. The same can be seen near the Marquette welcome center off US41 in Harvey, with minor slushy accumulations on the shoulder. Due to this, felt comfortable leaving the SPS across the west, and the advisory across the central for now. The question heading into tonight then is how long do these snowbands remain with the weak boundary layer flow and then if they do remain, how much snow accumulates as temperatures fall? This morning`s CAMs didn`t handle this afternoon`s lake-effect well, and this afternoon`s CAMs for tonight are, well...all over the place. Weak boundary layer flow is making this lake-effect snow a little tough to predict, especially when guidance is so all over the place. I started with a persistence approach and adjusted PoPs based on sfc wind direction. Since I don`t think any one location will have a more dominant band over another, I spread the QPF out more evenly bringing 2 to 4 more inches across Marquette and Alger counties, with of course locally higher amounts possible. Across the west, weak westerly flow is moving in which should start to create diminishing PoPs and I have 1 to 3 inches out that way. If PoPs hang on a little longer into tonight, could see some local 4 inch reports as well. Latest HRRR and ESRL HRRR do suggest a mesolow develops tonight, remaining over Lake SUperior, but following parallel to Marquette County. If part of this makes it on to shore, could see a quick accumulation from it. Roads could get a little slick tonight as temperatures fall in the 20s. By tomorrow, winds continue to back a bit more to the west, with weak flow prevailing. Lake-effect bands should follow this wind shift, with most showers ending by 18Z tomorrow. As a ridge of high pressure shifts in from the west, model soundings suggest subsidence to dry the column out, with some clearing skies from west to east in the afternoon looking possible. Look for highs to still be below normal in the low to mid 30s west and mid to upper 30s east. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 341 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2020 Models finally advertise a break in the cold, wet pattern for the extended as the persistent broad mid-upper level trough across much of the continent will be replaced by zonal flow and a milder, Pacific air mass late week into next weekend. Beginning Monday night, as a sfc high pres ridge moves overhead, the attendant dry air mass and light winds should result in an unseasonably cold night. Fresh snowfall and PWATs of .25 inch or less will only enhance radiational cooling. Siding on the low-end of model guidance, expect overnight lows over the west half in the teens with maybe even some single digits possible over the typical interior west cold spots. In the east and by the lakeshores, expecting lows to bottom out in the low 20s to high teens. A series of shortwaves moving through south central Canada will bring a surface trough/cold front through the Upper Great Lakes late Wed/Wed night. Tue still looks dry, but then later Tue night into Wed weak forcing from passing shortwaves could support some light rain/snow showers brushing northern and eastern portions of the cwa. CAA behind Wed night`s cold fropa will support some scattered light lake effect snow showers for the north wind snowbelts on Thu. Friday-Saturday, a broad mid-upper level ridge from the Plains will be building over the region resulting to dry conditions and a warming trend. Expect highs in the lower to mid 40s on Friday. WAA in a southwest flow really kicks in on Sat as model consensus shows 850 mb temps climbing as high as 10C, perhaps even higher, under sunny skies. Should be one of the warmest Halloweens in recent memory with highs likely well into the 50s, perhaps even reaching the lower 60s at a few locations under a breezy southwest flow. Sunday, a Pacific-based shortwave moving in from the west will bring in increasing clouds and maybe some isolated rain showers as high temps fall back into the lower to mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2020 Continuous lake-effect snow will continue into the overnight with light winds allowing the snow to be persistent. IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this evening at all sites before drier air works in and starts to slowly diminish the intensity of the snow. All sites will go to MVFR later tonight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2020 Light winds will prevail through Monday as high pressure moves over Lake Superior. This high pressure drifts south and east Monday night as a clipper low pressure system moves over Lake Winnipeg and skirts by Lake Superior to the north. With Lake Superior caught between these two systems, the pressure gradient tightens and SW winds increase to gales up to 35 knots across the west half and north central portions of the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds diminish Wednesday evening as high pressure moves back over Lake Superior, which will persist into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...07 MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
932 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Updated forecast sent, made only some minor downward revisions to snow amounts in Teller/El Paso counties, remainder of the forecast is in good shape. Will note some brief freezing rain reported at KALS as of 9pm, expect this to transition to snow in the next hour or so as entire column drops below freezing. UPDATE Issued at 758 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Quick look at currently arriving 00z NAM and last few runs of the HRRR suggest heavy snow band from the Sangres up through Pueblo county will fade somewhat later this evening, before another band sets up slightly farther north after midnight. Still appears biggest snowfall totals will end up over the Sangres and Wets, with amounts approaching 2 feet possible by Monday morning. Arkansas Valley from Pueblo west to Salida, and I-25 corridor from Pueblo to Trinidad also look like winners with some spots over a foot by morning. Overall, current fcst snow amounts look on track at most locations, although El Paso/Teller counties may underperform forecast somewhat, as heavier snow stays south, and may nudge amounts down a few inches for COS metro and Woodland Park area with update late this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...High Impact Snow Storm Tonight and Monday... An unseasonably strong and cold weather system to bring heavy snow and record cold temperatures to much of south central and southeast Colorado tonight and Monday. Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating a strong storm system digging across the Northern Rockies with a strong polar jet digging down the backside of the system across the Great Basin at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a weaker system just offshore of the southern California Coast, with Pacific moisture streaming out ahead of these system across the Desert SW at this time. For tonight and Monday...Latest models continue to support a high impact snow event with widespread moderate to heavy snowfall across all of south central and southeast Colorado, as the Northern Rockies trough continues to dig south across the Central Rockies and merges with the weaker system moving across the southern California Coast before developing a cutoff low across central Arizona by late tomorrow afternoon. The merging of the polar and subtropical jets across southern Colorado with bring bands of moderate to heavy snow tonight into Monday morning, with snow expected to taper from north to south Monday afternoon and evening. Greatest accumulations remain expected across the eastern San Juan mountains through the San Luis Valley and southeast mts, where 1 to 2 feet of snow remains expected, with locally up to 3 ft possible across the higher peaks of the San Juan`s and Sangre de Cristo`s. Latest higher res models also continue to indicate a band of snowfall persisting across the Wet Mts, the Wet Mt Vally and the middle Arkansas River valley into eastern Pueblo County, with some guidance giving Pueblo up to 20 inches snow. While that seems high, we will need to continue to monitor the latest higher res guidance for this possibility. I did, however, increase totals across the eastern Las Animas County into Baca County, where hrrr also indicates a band of 4 to 8 inches possible. Very cold temperatures will be the other aspect of this high impact storm, with temperatures cooling to the single digits and teens across the plains overnight, with new record lows likely set in COS on Monday (previous is 16F set in 1913). Monday record lows at PUB might be harder to reach with the expected precipitation, as current record is 4F set in 1997. New record low max temps will be set on Monday with current Oct 26th records being 31F at COS and 34F at PUB. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Latest long range ensemble models tend to favor a slower movement with a shift to the north late for the upper low, which is closer to what the EC has been showing the past couple of days. Monday night through Wednesday...The upper low pressure system is expected to be over the Four Corners late Mon aftn, and continue to drop south into southern AZ during the overnight hours. Therefore, the heavier snowfall across the forecast area is expected to taper off from the northeast to the southwest, and the current ending time of midnight for the winter weather highlights still looks good. However, snow over the southern mts and mixed pcpn along the lower elevations of the southern border will likely continue through the day Tue as the low pushes into NM. The low then starts moving to the northeast, crossing into the TX Panhandle Wed aftn. Pcpn chances will start to increase once again over the southeast quad of the state, and persist into very early Thu morning. It still looks like Tue morning will be the coldest period of extended forecast, with clearing skies and fresh snow cover dropping temps into the single digits. Light winds will likely create wind chills of 5 below to 15 below zero. Plan on highs in the 30s for most locations Tue, then the 40s on Wed. Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridge of high pressure builds back into the southwestern US, so dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the extended forecast. Look for Plan on highs in the 40s to lower 50s for most areas on Thu, gradually climbing into the 50s for the high valleys and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains by Sun. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 IFR and LIFR conditions in snow expected to persist through the overnight hours at COS and PUB. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches remain possible at the terminals through the period, with snowfall expected to taper and slowly diminish from north to south through the day Monday. Gusty southwest winds of 20-40KT to persist at ALS through the afternoon, which has produced MVFR and localized IFR conditions at times in BLDU. Winds to diminish through the late afternoon and become more easterly and increase once again this evening, as strong cold front banks up across the Front Range allowing for a much colder airmass to move into the region. This cold airmass will also bring widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in snow tonight with snow slowly diminishing Monday afternoon. Accumulations at the terminal of 3 to 6 inches remain possible by the end of the taf period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ089-093>099. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ058>064- 069>071-076>080-083-086>088. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for COZ065>068-072>075. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ081-082-084- 085. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
900 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered light showers from the coast to the mountains will come to an end this evening as a vigorous upper trough passes across the region. This will be followed by developing Santa Ana winds after midnight tonight, strengthening through Monday and lasting through Tuesday. Strong and potentially damaging winds are forecast from the San Bernardino and Riverside County mountains, the Inland Empire and inland Orange County. The strong northeast winds combined with crashing humidity will lead to critical fire weather conditions across these areas late tonight through Tuesday, a dangerous situation should any fires start. Less wind will occur overall for San Diego County. An upper ridge will build in mid and late week, leading to weakening winds and warming conditions. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... -Forecast Highlights- * Strong Santa Ana Winds Develop Late Tonight-Tuesday SBD to OC * Damaging Wind Potential and Critical Fire Weather Conditions Evening Forecast Update: The latest high resolution HRRR shows the Santa Ana wind event quickly unfolding late tonight from around dawn through the day Monday. Peak winds could top 70 mph at times through and immediately below the passes and canyons, which will have the potential to cause wind damage and disrupt power and travel conditions. The latest forecast remains on track, and therefore no significant updates to the forecast were needed this evening. An updated rain report was just issued and patchy light rain showers will continue through late this evening, especially in San Diego County. You can see the latest rain report at the top of our website and on our social media feeds. A peak wind report was also issued, which features the onshore strong winds, which are now dying off, before switching to offshore after midnight. Previous Forecaster Discussion, issued at 304 PM PDT: A vigorous upper trough with core moving over the Great Basin is phasing with an upper low off our coast. This feature will move south across our region tonight. Scattered showers ahead of it (light/insignificant) will come to an end followed by potential high impact weather for parts of our service area as a strong Santa Ana wind develops. The winds will switch to northeast after midnight tonight at around 2 AM and this will commence this much advertised Santa Ana Wind event. Santa Ana winds will steadily increase overnight and become potentially damaging extending into Tuesday afternoon impacting the coastal mountain slopes of the San Bernardino and Riverside County mountains, the Inland Empire extending to inland Orange County. The period of greatest concern is from dawn Monday through 11 PM Monday. There will be mixing and winds will be most widespread and gusty late tonight through about noon Monday. Hi-res models suggest that by mid afternoon Monday extending through Monday evening, we transition to an environment favorable for mountain waves and WRF cross sections show surfacing mountain waves over parts of the Inland Empire and inland Orange County. This could mean that although winds may let up in some areas late Monday morning into the afternoon, if mountain waves surface, sudden and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph could occur. This is the time of best dynamic forcing for SoCal, which could allow for severe wind gusts to occur. Again, the corridor of strongest winds will impact areas below the Cajon Pass stretching across the northern Inland Empire in and around Rancho Cucamonga, Ontario, Glen Avon, extending southwest into inland Orange County, including areas in and around Orange, Tustin, Lake Forest to San Clemente. The wind orientation is not favorable for widespread, strong winds across San Diego County. The only exception is north of Oceanside, which could see strong wind gusts of 50+ mph. Otherwise, the strong winds over San Diego County look to remain localized to ridge tops and much less intense than further north. Temperatures will tumble especially across the mountains and deserts. Lows in the lower 30s are forecast for the high desert. Sensitive vegetation could be killed there as localized temps to around the freezing mark are forecast. Compressional warming west of the mountains will occur with noticeably warmer readings on Tuesday as Santa Anas continue. The winds will relax Tuesday afternoon/evening as the forcing moves east and away from the region. Upper ridging will build in mid/late week. This will lead to tranquil weather conditions along with gradual warming. The marine layer likely will make a return late this week for nighttime and morning low cloudiness making a comeback after clear days Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... 252000Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...BKN-OVC cloud layers with bases ranging from 2500-4500 feet MSL and tops to 6500 feet MSL will continue through tonight, with scattered -SHRA bringing local vis 3-5 miles. Only local SCT conditions will occur. Higher terrain will be obscured at times. Clouds will dissipate 10Z- 16Z Mon with areas of surface northeast winds 20-35 knots and gusts to 55 knots developing Mon mainly after 12Z VCNTY KSNA, KRAL, KONT, KSBD, KRIV. Mountain Crests/Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Monday, except for clouds/fog near the mountain crests through this evening. Areas of gusty west winds 20- 30 knots with gusts to 50 knots will continue in the mountains, through San Gorgonio Pass, and into the deserts through tonight, with northeast winds 20-35 knots and gusts to 55 knots developing tonight, mainly near the mountain crests, continuing Monday. && .MARINE... Northeast winds will increase over the nearshore water late tonight with gusts to 25 knots possible off the northern San Diego County coast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 5 AM Monday through 5 AM Tuesday due to areas of northeast winds which will gust to 30 knots, creating conditions hazardous to small craft operators. Benign marine conditions will return Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...Red Flag Warning 2 AM Monday Through 6 PM Tuesday for Strong Northeast Winds and Extremely Low Relative Humidity for the San Bernardino and Riverside County Mountains, the Inland Empire, San Gorgonio Pass, and Inland Orange County... Santa Ana winds will begin after midnight tonight, increasing in speed overnight and continuing through Tuesday. The strongest winds are forecast to occur between dawn Monday through Monday evening. Northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 70 mph are expected. The Santa Ana will bring extremely dry air into Southern California with relative humidity falling to 5-10% away from the coast Monday through Tuesday. Little overnight recovery is expected. The corridor of strongest winds will impact areas below the Cajon Pass stretching across the northern Inland Empire in and around Rancho Cucamonga, Ontario, Glen Avon, extending southwest into inland Orange County, including areas in and around Orange, Tustin, Lake Forest to San Clemente. The winds are expected to ease Tuesday afternoon, but will still be locally gusty. The strength and areal coverage of wind for San Diego County will be lower. The strongest winds there will occur north of Oceanside. For east County it looks like the strongest winds will remain on the ridges where gusts to 50 mph or so will be possible. Still, locally gusty winds briefly to 20-40 mph into the foothills and valleys along with low relative humidity of 5-10% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the mountains and valleys of San Diego County Monday through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered, light showers will continue from the coast to the coastal mountain slopes through this evening, favoring San Diego County. Total rainfall amounts will be less than 0.10 inches at most locales. However, the coastal mountain slopes are forecast to receive 0.20 to perhaps up to 0.50 inches, with the max along the San Diego County mountain coastal slopes. Max hourly rainfall rates will be 0.10/hr. Any runoff will be quite limited. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Coachella Valley- Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. Red Flag Warning from 2 AM Monday to 6 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The Inland Empire-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Coachella Valley- San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. High Wind Warning from 2 AM Monday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria/JMB AVIATION/MARINE...PG
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Northern stream upper wave continues to deepen southward towards the four corners region while a secondary cutoff low is beginning to enter the southern CA coast. Broad quasi-zonal westerly flow ahead of the wave has aided in persistent low level moisture and weak ascent as the stratus deck lowers through the afternoon and evening. Light drizzle has been observed over north central and portions of east central Kansas thus far and would expect the light precip to linger before the system arrives tonight. If temps fall near or below freezing, this may result in a light glaze on elevated surfaces. The first of two disturbances rounds the Four Corner basin this evening while the cutoff low ejects into the southern plains by morning. Widespread frontogenetical forcing in the h85-h7 layer dropping southward into north central Kansas aft 00Z will be the driver in precipitation rapidly developing and expanding eastward into most of the CWA by 09z. Latest model trends are a bit faster with the colder, freezing temps, and given our western areas have not warmed and are hovering near freezing already, the wintry precip transition to all snow should be brief overnight. Impact to morning commute is likely as wintry precip should be ongoing with the exception for areas south of I-35. Model solutions begin to differ Monday afternoon as the mid level vort max associated with the cut off low develops another band of higher QPF in the southeast KS to central MO vicinity. Temperature profiles vary by a few degrees towards east central KS which may result in freezing rain or sleet mixing in with the snow. While this will cut down on snowfall totals, a light glaze of ice may add to the additional impact of travel for tomorrow. It is also worthy to note the RAP forecast soundings were showing elevated instability mid to late morning across the area - indicative of banding snow and locally higher amounts across east central Kansas so cannot rule out the potential for locally higher snowfall totals. Current snowfall forecast is generally 1 to 4 inches this evening through Tuesday evening with locally higher amounts possible if any banded snowfall or convection were to occur. Headlines included expanding the Winter Weather Advisory further east to encompass the entire area as well as extending the time through 06Z Tuesday to account for lingering light snow and light freezing drizzle. Plan to also mention the freezing temps as forecast lows tonight will be in the 20s to low 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 A second killing freeze is likely Tuesday morning with lows in the upper teens to low 20s, effectively ending the growing season. Multiple rounds of precipitation, including wintry precipitation, remains possible Tuesday through Thursday as the upper low occludes as it shifts across the southern plains. Precip on Tuesday is mostly confined to areas south of Interstate 70 where light snow mixes with sleet and rain through the daytime. Confidence remains low on how far north the wintry mix impacts the area, and the amounts so evaluation of extending the winter weather advisory will be made in later forecasts. Rain appears most likely Wednesday and Thursday as the warmer air raises temps back into the 40s for highs. Models exit the upper low by Thursday evening with drier, and more mild temperatures next weekend as highs peak in the low 60s and overnight && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 A messy TAF period is ahead with periods of drizzle and snow. IFR conditions should prevail at all sites within the next 1-2 hours with light drizzle developing shortly thereafter. A transition to snowfall is expected during the late evening hours. We will have to monitor the potential for any banded snowfall which would result in very low VSBY and likely lowered CIGS. Otherwise, light snow should accompany much of the daytime hours Monday. Northerly winds will remain at 10-15 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ012-024-026-039-040-055-056-058-059. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-009-020- 021-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ010-011-022-023-036>038-054. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
500 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 The latest water vapor images and RAP model analysis shows a deep trough over most of the western/central CONUS with a large ridge off the West Coast. Upper low pressure was centered over the ID/UT/WY area with a strongly positive tilt. A 90-100 upper jet was over the area, and a short-wave trough was moving northeast across CO/UT toward the southwestern CWA. Radar indicates that snow has ended over most of the CWA, except for the far southwestern corner of SD. However, given the approach of the upper wave, along with the colder/deeper clouds approaching from the southwest, will keep snow in the forecast for the far southwestern CWA into this evening. CAMs and ensemble guidance also supports this. Otherwise, the winter weather highlights have expired or been cancelled, and only some light snow and areas of drifting snow will remain possible over southern/open areas into early this evening. NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble climatologies show 850-mb temperatures getting down to less than the 1st percentile tonight over parts of the CWA. With the fresh snow cover, decreasing winds, and gradually diminishing clouds overnight, temperatures will fall to record or near-record lows on Monday morning. Then, highs on Monday will be near record-low maxes as snow cover and the residual cold air mass will be in place. The 850-mb temperatures will then rise markedly Monday night through Tuesday. This will lead to a non- diurnal pattern to low temperatures Monday night, with lows around midnight and then steady to rising temperatures thereafter. Dry weather and an overall warming trend will ensue for the rest of the week as the ridge-trough pattern shifts eastward, albeit high temperatures will be moderated by the snow cover such that below- average temperatures will remain through Thursday. Highs may get back to average for Friday through Sunday as 850-mb temperatures flirt with 10-15C. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 457 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 A few areas of IFR conditions in light snow will persist over southwest South Dakota through early evening. Otherwise MVFR ceilings will continue through early tonight across portions of northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota. VFR conditions expected across the area on Monday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bunkers AVIATION...7