Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/17/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
646 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR ceilings continue this evening at BRO and HRL
and IFR ceilings persist at MFE. These conditions will prevail
through the evening with some brief instances of IFR ceilings
possible overnight at HRL and BRO. Have included tempo groups to
reflect this potential. Ceilings should then gradually rise
through the morning hours with each aerodrome eventually seeing
VFR conditions by around midday Saturday. Northwest winds will
generally be light to moderate overnight, with a directional shift
from northwest to south and southeast occurring later Saturday
morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A cold front has pushed
through the area leaving cooler and dropping temperatures in its
wake. We have seen much drier air both ahead and behind the front
than the previous models had suggested. Models are now beginning
to pick up on this trend with the HRRR being the model of choice
at this time due to it handling the drier air better. Therefore,
we lowered PoPs across the area with a continued chance rainfall,
mainly across coastal areas and the northern Ranchlands into this
evening. Temperatures will remain cool overnight falling into the
low 60s with some spotty upper 50s throughout the CWA. Tonight
into Saturday, high pressure begins to builds east of the area
which will quickly switch our current northerly winds back to the
southeast on Saturday and allow for warming temperatures, though
we will continue to remain slightly below normal.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): The long-term period will
begin with broad, mid-level subtropical ridging over the majority
of Southern Texas, with southeasterly flow at the surface. This
combo will warm up temperatures into the low-mid 90s, about 5 to
10 degrees above seasonal average, across most of the CWA on
Sunday afternoon. Most of the country north of Texas will be
influenced by a extensive longwave trough. Shortwaves embedded in
this trough will round the base of it from the west, helping it
dig farther south and over central/southern Texas on Monday.
Although there wont be a drastic change in temperatures for
Deep South Texas, slightly cooler temperatures will result from a
more troughy pattern through the middle part of next week.
Additionally, Gulf moisture will gradually increase over the
region beginning on Monday as an area of weak low pressure
develops near the Yucatan Peninsula Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Model guidance has been persistent over the past few runs, showing
weak troughing aloft and an influx of Gulf moisture. Will continue
to keep slight/isolated PoPs in the forecast beginning on Monday
and continue through the rest of the week. The best precip.
chances will occur east of I-69C each day. Ridging will begin to
build in from the west by Thursday, warming temps up and perhaps
suppressing rain chances a bit for the remainder of the week.
MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): We currently have a Small
Craft Advisory out for the northern Gulf waters until early evening.
Conditions will begin to improve this evening and overnight with
winds beginning to decrease and lowering seas. We could continue to
see some showers across the Gulf waters into early Saturday that
could lead to brief gusty winds and higher seas. Otherwise, more
favorable conditions are expected, especially Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night.
Sunday through Wednesday: Not too many changes made to the marine
forecast from the previous forecast package. High pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region and a developing surface
low across the western Carribean will keep winds moderate to
occasionally strong out of the southeast or east-southeast through
much of the long- term period. Periods of Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions will be possible almost each day as winds
remain sustained between 10 to 20 knots. A long easterly fetch
will keep the swell moderate, around 3 to 5 feet on the Gulf, into
the middle part of next week. Additionally, rain showers and
thunderstorms will become possible next week as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 80 72 89 / 10 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 64 83 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 63 83 69 91 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 63 83 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 62 84 67 95 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 78 76 85 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55-Adams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1113 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather will return for the weekend. The next chance of
rain arrives Sunday night through Tuesday. Below normal temperatures
don`t last long as values climb back above normal Tuesday. 70s are
possible for locations outside the mountains Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest GOES 12.30u-10.90u satellite image has a batch of altocu
lingering over parts of northern West Virginia and western Maryland.
The latest HRRR and NAM3Km in the H8-H7 pick up on this nicely and
have it lingering until 6-9Z. This could have an impact on low
temperature forecast if the clouds last a good part of the night. For
now, left temperatures as is, but the frost process may not occur if
the clouds don`t vacate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level zonal flow is progged to quickly resume in the wake of
the filling trough so temperature moderation will be rapid on
for Saturday and Sunday with warm advection and insolation marred
only by some clouds with a passing shortwave.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances return Sunday night into Monday morning with the
approach of a shortwave trough and weak frontal boundary. Lack of
moisture and departing support for the system will keep rain chances
low overall.
Model consensus projects a more substantial shortwave trough moving
up the Ohio Valley late on Monday. With favorable divergence via the
right-entrance of a jet streak and resulting frontogenetical forcing
within southwest flow, most areas should receive rain by late
Monday. Cold advection in the wake of that system will be brief
though and a return to dry weather and seasonably warm temperature is
anticipated under zonal flow.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under sfc high pressure. NW
wind should back to the SW Sat as the high tracks E.
.Outlook...
The next chance for restrictions is expected with another cold front
early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ001.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-049-050-059-
069.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ048-057-058-068.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ020-021-029-031-073-
075.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ074-076.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Currently, a stream of high clouds extends from Teller County
southeast through Baca County as can be seen on visible satellite
imagery. Areas south and west of this band of high clouds are under
clear skies. Strong southwesterly winds are being reported at
Springfield, but winds are fairly light elsewhere across the plains
as of 2 pm. Gusty winds and low relative humidities are being
reported at some locations within Teller County and the Upper
Arkansas River Valley, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.
Temperatures underneath the stream of clouds are a bit cooler than
anticipated for this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s in El Paso County to mid 50s in Pueblo County as of 2 pm.
Areas under thin or no cloud cover have reached the lower to mid 60s
across the lower elevations.
Tonight and tomorrow...
Main forecast concern through tomorrow will be very dry
conditions with gusty winds, causing near critical to critical fire
weather conditions across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.
A disturbance within the flow aloft is expected to move south
through the Rocky Mountain region, increasing the west to
northwest flow aloft. As a result, an increase in temperatures,
gusty westerly winds and a reinforcement of dry air is expected to
create near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the
region tomorrow afternoon. Winds are expected to be strongest along
and west of the I-25 corridor, where gust are anticipated to reach
25 to 40 mph. So have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning. Some of the latest guidance indicates that wind gusts in El
Paso County will not reach critical thresholds, but the 18z HRRR
shows winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph through a good portion of the
county, which makes a bit more sense to me given the increased flow
aloft moving overhead during the day tomorrow. In addition to the
gustier winds, RH values are expected to drop to 10% or lower across
many of the areas within the Red Flag Warning. A cold front is then
anticipated to begin moving through the plains late tomorrow
afternoon into early tomorrow evening.
As far as temperatures go, lows tonight are expected to drop into
the mid 30s to lower 40s across the plains and mid 20s to mid 30s in
the high valleys. Highs tomorrow are anticipated to be around 80
across the plains and around 70 in the high valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Post frontal winds will continue increasing into Saturday evening,
with gusts up to 30-35 mph expected across the far eastern plains.
Expect cooler temps in 20s and 30s over the plains in this post
frontal air mas Saturday night and as low level easterly flow
continues on Sunday, will see below normal temps return to the
plains. No real big change in temps is expected across the mountain
valleys Sunday.
For the remainder of the period, expect a warming trend later next
week with slightly above normal temps returning to the area. Dry
conditions expected and while some guidance hints at some focused
ascent across the far eastern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday,
expect the stronger ascent and any precip chances to stay to the
east. Next front forecast to drop south through CO late Thursday,
but precip chances not expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all three TAF
sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). Generally light and diurnally driven winds
are expected through late morning before gusty west to northwest
winds develop in the afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...CARLBERG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
317 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm afternoons and chilly mornings will prevail through the
weekend. Sunday and Monday afternoons may be slightly more breezy,
but otherwise dry conditions with temperatures remaining above
season averages will continue for much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Easterly flow will continue to weaken through the day today across
western Nevada and much of the eastern Sierra. Ridge and mid slopes
may still have some more breezy east winds, but highest gusts should
remain below 30 mph today. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
lower 70s for the region today.
The absence of the east flow will allow smoke and haze to return to
portions of the forecast area, especially for the eastern Sierra.
Smoke will be filtering back into the eastern Sierra, including
Mammoth and all the way into the Tahoe Basin over the weekend.
Other than the smoke concerns, mainly light winds and mild
temperatures will continue through the weekend. High temperatures
will be above season averages by Saturday with highs near 80
across western Nevada and in the mid 70s for the Sierra. A bit
warm for fall sweater weather if you ask me! These light winds and
a dry airmass will allow valleys to efficiently cool with lows
dropping into the low to mid 30s for most lower valleys. Sierra
valleys will see lows dropping into the 20s.
High pressure takes hold across the eastern Pacific which will keep
much of the region under dry northwest flow. West-northwest winds
will increase on Sunday and Monday with gusts around 20-25 mph.
Precipitation chances remain non-impressive through next week with
relatively quiet weather forecast. -Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
Turbulence and mountain wave activity remain possible on the west
side of the Sierra crest through this evening. East winds subside
this evening. West to northwest breezes will return Saturday
through Monday, with afternoon gusts reaching as high as 20-25
kts, especially south of US 50 Saturday and north of US 50 Sunday
and Monday.
Smoke and haze from the Creek Fire has begun to make its way back
into the Eastern Sierra and portions of western Nevada this
afternoon. The most recent HRRR Smoke simulations show smoke and
haze moving north and east near KMMH-KTVL-KMEV-KCXP through
tonight, with the densest smoke and visibility reductions
occurring near KMMH. KRNO and KTRK should remain clear through
this evening. -Johnston
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
458 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Strong winds at mountain top level and a tight gradient looks to
result in near/high wind across the Absaroka and Cody Foothills.
The 18Z high resolution models have increased the winds for enough
confidence to issue a high wind warning for those two areas
tonight. The high wind will end by around 3 AM, as a cold front
pulls southward.
NPW and updated grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Overview...Warmer today with windy conditions across the Wind
Corridor and Absarokas. Strong cold front to cross the area late
tonight into Saturday bringing snow to the northern mountains. Below
average temperatures post-front Sunday.
Synopsis...Warmer and more seasonal weather across the area today as
warmer air is being advected into the area. Mid-level wind being
favorable for the advection of warmer air; however, these strong mid-
level winds are going to mix down and impact the surface. An SPS has
been issued for several zones where winds area expected to be gusty.
Wind gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph across the Wind Corridor to
Casper; as well as, the Upper Winds including Dubois. Gusts expected
across the Absarokas and Chief Joseph Highway could exceed 60mph.
Winds are expected to continue through the evening and overnight
hours; therefore, the SPS may need to be extended to reflect the
winds.
A strong cold front will slowly begin to drift into the area late
tonight and into early Saturday morning. Models have disagreed on
the timing of the front for the last several days but the NAM and
the HRRR have the front on Big Horn and Johnson County`s doorstep by
early morning on Saturday. Northwest flow ahead of the front could
allow for some upslope snow showers across the Absarokas and
Bighorns but when the front moves across snow showers are expected
to continue across the northern mountains. Model guidance wants to
put substantial QPF across the Tetons and Upper Winds but due to
this being a more dynamic system dropped QPF values across those
locations and increased QPF across the Bighorns. Have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for the Bighorns from midnight tonight
through early Sunday morning. Moisture is looking to be lacking
once the front crosses out of Bighorn and Johnson Counties;
therefore, went light on pops across central Wyoming and no pops
across the south. Winds ahead of the front could be strong across
the Wind Corridor but staying dry. Northwest flow continues to
dominate the pattern into the end of the period; however, CAA post
cold front could be blustery across the northeast part of the CWA
bringing down highs and lows to below average temperatures
through early Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
The general troughiness will continue through next week. This will
keep general chances for precipitation across the north and
northwest through much of the week. The troughiness will keep gusty
winds through the extended forecast period, but no highlight worthy
winds are looking to be possible. The first main shot of
precipitation will be Sunday night/Monday morning with a cold front
pushing across the northeastern part of the state. Up to 6 inches of
snow could be possible Sunday morning through late Monday afternoon
across the Absarokas. The Bighorns may see an inch or two as well.
These amounts would be in addition to the snowfall over the weekend
in these areas. Temperatures will remain below average for Sunday
and Monday and increasing through the middle of the week to near
average to slightly above average. Tuesday and Wednesday will remain
mainly dry except for the far northern Bighorns and Absarokas.
The next system in the form of a cold front similar to the Sunday
one, will occur Thursday. The models still differ, but both the GFS
and ECMWF agree that some sort of front will make its way across the
northeast part of the region later in the day on Thursday. This will
drop temperatures back below normal for Thursday. Thursday will be
15 to perhaps 20 degrees colder than Wednesday. Precipitation,
likely snow overnight and rain during the warmer part of the day, is
expected to occur over the Bighorns and northern Absarokas. The
ECMWF is indicating a stronger front which would push precip further
south into the Owl Creeks and Tetons. Kept PoPs lower for these
regions, due to the continued model uncertainty, but will be
something to continue to watch over the coming week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Winds will increase across many of the terminal sites this
afternoon. KCPR and KRKS are already gusting to near 30 kts with
these winds expected to continue through the late evening. Clouds
will also continue to increase from north to south today and
tonight. Winds will decrease overnight but will increase again
tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Precipitation ahead of the front will
begin to move into KCOD Sunday morning around 11Z and VCSH has
been included for KCPR, KJAC, KPNA, and KWRL ahead of the cold
front. The cold front will push through from south to north and
shift winds to the north tomorrow morning and early afternoon. The
front is not expected to make it to KRKS and thus strong west
winds are expected to continue through the day tomorrow at KRKS.
Winds will be gusty ahead of the front at the other terminal
locations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 145 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Gusty winds will continue across the area as the gradient tightens
ahead of strong cold front. An SPS has been issued for the Wind
Corridor, Upper and Central Wind River Basin, Absaroka Mountains and
Cody Foothills through this evening for winds. Minimum relative
humidity will be above critical fire weather thresholds but it is
still very dry across the area. A strong cold front will enter the
area tonight and traverse the state through Saturday. Winds and
relative humidity values will increase ahead of the front. An SPS
may be extended in the Wind Corridor tomorrow afternoon for the
gusty winds.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Saturday for WYZ002-003.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Sunday
for WYZ008-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Murrell
SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Fisher
FIRE WEATHER...Vorst
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
956 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Colder high pressure builds in tonight through the weekend.
Another front enters the area early next week, but with limited
moisture.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 955 PM EDT Friday...
No changes to Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory...
Scattered showers have developed in the piedmont this evening.
HRRR and HREF short range guidance have this precipitation
moving slowly east and dissipating between 04Z/midnight and
06Z/2AM. Have updated to reflect current radar trends.
Overall, dry air behind a cold front is pushing into the area
from the west. This will quickly eliminate the current
widespread cloud cover from west to east. The surface high
pressure moving into the region will settle the winds down. With
more settled winds, mixing will decrease and help those
temperatures drop, especially in southeast WV and west-central
VA, where winds are expected to stay breezy the longest.
Temperatures in a line of counties from Greenbrier, WV down to
Tazewell, VA will get into the lower 30s, and some of our usually
colder spots could get into the 20s. West of the Blue Ridge, temps
will get down to the mid or low 30s, to the east lows will be in
the low 40s/upper 30s. Frost will likely form west of the Blue Ridge
for early Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...
Another shot of chilly Autumn air as surface high pressure builds in
for the weekend. We kick Saturday morning off with a frost/freeze
headlines over the western mountain and river valleys. Many of these
locations will wake up with temperatures in the upper 20s and low
30s while elsewhere around the region mid to upper 30s will be the
general norm. Sweater weather will continue through the day with
highs in the mid to upper 50s out west and low 60s east of the Blue
Ridge.
Another round of patchy frost can be expected for Sunday morning
west of the Blue Ridge. These locations once again will see
temperatures flirt with the freezing mark while locations out east
of I-81 sit in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The high pressure
system that was overhead Saturday will continue north and east
toward the Delmarva allowing for some decent southerly return flow.
This should get highs back into the low to mid 60s out west and mid
to upper 60s out east of the Blue Ridge by Sunday afternoon.
With return flow comes extra moisture as high pressure continues
north and east. On top that another trough and area of low pressure
will start to dig in from the north with a front approaching our
western slopes Monday afternoon. Latest central model guidance
continues to depict this front moving back and forth between our
western slopes and the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
precipitation chances sparse with mainly isolated shower activity
Monday afternoon and evening over our western zones.
Forecast confidence is high through the weekend. Moderate confidence
for early next week based on overall frontal placement and forcing
aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...
Much of the long term period will feature relatively mild and dry
conditions. Zonal flow will be predominant as high pressure sits out
over the open Atlantic. At the same time our broad upper level
trough will continue northward through the upper Great Lakes and
Midwest as we head into midweek. Model guidance continues to depict
a few weak frontal passage with the best chances of rain later in
the workweek period. The 12z GFS and 0z European solutions continue
depict a front holding just to our north and west Tuesday. This
would leave isolated chances for showers along the western slopes in
particularly late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. The
front regresses back to the north by Wednesday with high pressure
settling in over the Great Smoky Mountains. The high remains for
Thursday with spotty chances for shower activity as moisture builds
due to more southwesterly flow. High pressure kicks east late
Thursday into Friday opening the door for another cold front to move
in. This front should bring us a better chance of rain and another
cold shot heading into the weekend.
High temperatures through the period look to trend at or slightly
above average which is in line with both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...
A narrow band of light showers east of KFVX and KDAN also
associated with some MVFR ceilings. This precipitation will move
east this evening. Otherwise conditions will be VFR across
southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West
Virginia tonight and Saturday. Areas of frost are expected late
tonight and Saturday morning along and west of the Blue Ridge.
A surface high will cross the Tennessee Valley tonight and will
be over the Delmarva by late in the day Saturday. This will
bring winds around to the southeast Saturday afternoon.
Above average confidence in ceilings, wind and visibility.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
High pressure, and VFR ceilings/visibilities will remain through
Sunday. On Monday and Tuesday a cold front across the Ohio Valley
will bring MVFR cigs to the mountains. A dry forecast and VFR
weather is expected on Wednesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ009>020-
022>024.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ007.
NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ002-003-
019-020.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...AMS/VFJ
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
As of 20Z this afternoon, the surface ridge axis has pushed
southeast of the area into the Ozarks region with lee troughing
starting to develop in eastern CO in response to a shortwave within
northwest flow, noted on water vapor imagery. The large-scale 500mb
trough continues to progress into the eastern half of the CONUS.
Winds have been light so far today, but this is expected to
drastically change tonight into Saturday. As the pressure gradient
tightens this evening, a strong 60-70 kt LLJ develops and maintains
its strength overnight before gradually decreasing into tomorrow
afternoon. Forecast soundings don`t show much decoupling of the PBL,
so conditions will at least be breezy overnight, but the stronger
winds come mid-morning as they start to mix down. For this reason, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for east central and parts of
northeast KS from 9am to 3pm tomorrow, generally along and southeast
of a Council Grove to Hiawatha line. This is where models show a
strong signal for southwest winds sustained at 20-30mph with gusts
up to 50mph. It is worth noting that the 12Z/18Z HRRR and 15Z/18Z
RAP have shown potential for gusts pushing 60mph, so it is not out
of the question that an upgrade to a high wind warning may be
needed, or potentially an areal expansion westward if this signal
remains consistent. In any case, these winds also bring an increase
in fire danger - see fire weather section for more details.
The aforementioned shortwave pushes a cold front south from
Nebraska, which should decrease winds along the boundary during the
late afternoon into early evening. Even so, the stronger winds
during most of the day will usher in warmer air bringing highs to
the low to mid 70s ahead of the front.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Winds are expected to increase again behind the front Saturday
night, shifting to the north, but will be much less windy compared
to the pre-frontal winds. Only small rain chances exist on Sunday in
the morning as moisture looks meager with the northerly flow.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday and Monday, with CAA
being dominant on Sunday and the boundary looking to stall just
south of the area on Monday. This will result in highs in the upper
40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s. By Tuesday the boundary moves
north as a warm front and hangs around the area before pushing back
south as a cold front Thursday night into Friday. As a result,
temperatures gradually increase mid-week with highs returning to the
70s by Thursday before dropping back to the upper 50s on Friday.
Unfortunately, rain chances remain low with only slight chance PoPs
during this period for now - although this will likely change with
increasing confidence as we get closer and we get a better sense of
where the frontal boundary will set up through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
VFR conditions continue with a wind driven forecast giving way to
LLWS as the concerning hazard. A light southerly breeze will
change over to a strong southwesterly wind into the 06Z forecast
period as wind fields intensify. A strong LLJ will continue to
intensify overnight. Some models suggest winds could be as strong
as 60kts within the first couple thousand feet off the deck. This
should continue into mid morning before the LLJ veers and
partially mixes to the surface. Gusty surface winds continue
through the 00Z period as slight relaxing may occur but no
significant weakening will likely occur until after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
Strong southwest winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 35-50mph will bring
high to very high fire danger across the CWA, with the highest risk
coinciding with the area of the wind advisory. RH values will fall
to the 25-30 percent range during the afternoon, although
fortunately these minimums are forecast to occur as winds decrease
in the afternoon. During the peak of the strongest wind gusts, RH is
forecast at 35-40 percent. Have not issued any fire headlines at
this point, but in any case, these conditions coupled with dry fuels
would result in fires growing quickly should these fuels become
ignited.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ012-024-026-
037>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Picha
LONG TERM...Picha
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Picha