Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Tonight...a 1026mb surface high moves into the area from the north by sunrise Thursday morning under decreasing cloudiness. With northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph and dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 20s west to around 30 east the current frost and freeze headlines look good. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 20s in Yuma and Dundy counties to the mid to upper 30s from Hill City to Oakley and Leoti. An elevated layer of smoke from the Cameron Peak fire northwest of Fort Collins has reached a line extending from Akron to Goodland and Oakley. The latest HRRR suggests the "hazy" sky associated with the smoke will impact areas mainly along and north of the interstate through early this evening before dissipating. Thursday-Thursday night...mid level clouds quickly move over much of the area Thursday afternoon then exit the area after midnight under fast northwest flow aloft. No precipitation is currently expected. High temperatures look to reach the mid 50s to around 60 based on blending the better performing bias corrected grids the past one and seven day periods. This is also in line with 850mb temperatures. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s as a 1030mb surface high moves in, coldest temperatures across parts of far eastern Colorado as well as Dundy county Nebraska and Cheyenne county KS. Additional frost and freeze headlines are possible. Friday-Saturday...the forecast area remains under northwest flow aloft in between a large low pressure center over Canada and high pressure near Baja. High temperatures Friday look to reach the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday. Lows Friday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. No precipitation is expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 A broad upper trough extends from the Pacific Northwest southeast to Arkansas and northeast to New England at the start of the period. This places the region under northwest flow with a backdoor cold front entering the area at the surface. Cooler air filters into the region Saturday night, and with low temperatures in the low 30s across the majority of the area (and mid 30s for the rest), there is a good potential for a freeze (frost) early Sunday morning. Cooler weather, with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s is forecast on Sunday. There is a very small sliver of a slight chance of precipitation north of the Nebraska border Sunday night behind the front. With lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, any precipitation that would manage to develop would likely changeover to snow (although no accumulation is anticipated). To the south, where there is less cloud cover, areas could see a frost/freeze. Forecast confidence decreases Monday onward due to guidance varying on the intensity of the upper trough. At this time, dry weather looks to prevail with a deep low over eastern Canada on Monday. There are hints of a disturbance coming towards the High Plains from the Pacific Northwest midweek but we will have to wait and see if this holds true. Temperatures slowly rebound from the upper 50s/low 60s on Monday to the mid/upper 60s on Tuesday. Lows remain in the upper 20s to low 30s Monday and Tuesday nights. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 00Z TAF period. Gusty north winds will subside and become light out of the north northwest this evening. Light north northwest winds will persist through the remainder of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013-014-027-041. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ091-092. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ080-081. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 .UPDATE... 809 PM CDT A relative lull in the winds has started across the area this evening with westerly gusts generally under 25 mph. Multiple boundaries/fronts are either approaching the CWA from the northwest or shifting across the CWA at this time. The one of focus is currently across southwest Wisconsin. Modest pressure rises with CAA behind this front will result in WSW wind gusts to 35 mph overnight. While mid-level forcing will support mid to upper-level precip development, the precip will likely remain as virga given persistent low-level dry air in place. With that said, isolated sprinkles would not be entirely surprising overnight. Regarding Thursday night, a Freeze Watch has been issued for all but the core of the Chicago metro. See the short term discussion for more details. This watch was not issued during the normal afternoon period to avoid any messaging complications given the already active wind and fire headlines Kluber && .SHORT TERM... 240 PM CDT Through Thursday night... Much of the lower Great Lakes is in the warm and windy portion of a deepening low pressure system across northern Minnesota. A strong low level jet response has occurred and is spreading into northern Illinois this afternoon, with 4 to 6.5 mb pressure falls/ 3 hrs occurring. This jet core will shift overhead in the coming hours in conjunction with some clearing skies. This has allowed some deeper mixing at times -- and we have seen gusts peaking in the upper 30s to lower 40s thus far already. Wind advisory will remain intact through 7 pm CDT, with the core of the winds now through about 6 pm. With some dry air not to far off the surface per ILX morning soundings, dewpoints have not climbed as quickly and we have been able to mix down drier air despite some broad synoptic moisture increases. Have followed the HRRR dewpoints which hold therefore relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. Earlier in the shift we expanded Red Flag Warning for Cook and more recently for DuPage and Kane where clouds have also thinned, but even outside of this area elevated fire weather concerns continue. The surface trough will move overhead this evening, bringing a lull in the winds for a short time. The pressure rise is not a strong with the low well to our north, but a 3-5 mb/3 hr pressure rise in the later evening will result in gusty winds overnight, though not to the magnitude of today. Colder air will also ease its way in. The upper level jet will spread overhead tonight, which will lead to a strengthening frontogenetical circulation, but the strongest portion of this front is aloft. This coupled with dry air suggests a decent "virga storm" tonight, basically a thick band of mid level clouds that will lead to precipitation development but with a lower chance of more than sprinkles making it to the surface. This circulation will coincide with some additional lower level saturation along and southeast of I-55 later tonight into Thursday morning where some showers may still occur. Thursday will feature much cooler conditions, and also quite a bit drier in the absolute sense as dewpoints will also take a tumble. But in the relative sense, relative humidity values will still be fairly low, leading to elevated fire weather conditions yet again. Fortunately winds will be a bit lower, more in the gusts 25-30 mph range. Increasing sunshine mid morning into the afternoon will allow highs to push through the 50s in spite of the northwest winds. The cold air mass will get some added push with the loss of daylight Thursday evening. Have made few changes to the temperature forecast with many areas outside of Chicago forecast to dip below freezing given the dewpoints should still be into the middle 20s. The center of high pressure will pass across central Illinois, so we may not completely decouple, but the airmass is still plenty cold enough. It does look like we can hold off clouds at this distance to prevent any overnight warming as we get back in the warm advection behind the high. KMD && .LONG TERM... 310 PM CDT Friday through Wednesday... The main forecast concern continues to center on breezy and dry conditions favorable for more rapid brush fire/wildfire spread on Friday and Saturday. At this time, Saturday has higher potential for critical fire weather conditions. An unsettled weather pattern may then evolve to close out the weekend into next weekend, though confidence is low on details. After the chilly and in places frosty start to Friday, deep mixing will yield increasing west-southwest winds. Gusts of at least up to 25 mph are probable during the afternoon, and forecast soundings indicate upside potential to 30+ mph, which will depend on exactly how deep mixing gets. With temperatures recovering to the mid to upper 50s and dew points down in the 20s, minimum RH values will be near critical 25% values, especially with southward extent. A moisture starved short-wave will bring an increase in mid and high clouds and some high based sprinkles can`t be ruled out, but continue to hold with a dry forecast. A transient surface ridge will cause winds to diminish Friday night, so under light winds and clearing skies, could have some favored cool spots outside Chicago dip down to near freezing with patchy frost possible. If a freeze headline is needed on Thursday night/Friday AM, an end to the growing season may be declared for at least portions of the CWA outside of Chicago. The next shortwave in the seemingly endless wave train will affect the area on Saturday, mainly with a robust low level wind response. Overall setup is fairly similar to today, so will need to watch for southerly wind gusts possibly pushing advisory criteria (gusts up to 35 mph in the official forecast). Also of note, the continued dry conditions/dry fuels. If dew points mix out more than forecast, minimum RH values could near critical levels as afternoon temperatures rise into the lower to mid 60s (warmest south). If any spotty high based light showers or sprinkles occur on Saturday, they would be favored to be north of I-88 primarily during the morning. Cold front trailing from Saturday`s low pressure that will track well to our north will sweep across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, so breezy and mild conditions will continue into Saturday evening ahead of the front. Medium-long range guidance is generally trending toward ECMWF and its ensembles, as has been discussed in previous long term AFDs. Frontogenetically driven rain/showers could occur Sunday-Sunday night behind the front should details trend toward consistent ECMWF. Thereafter, pattern uncertainty relates to if and how far south of the CWA the baroclinic zone gets shunted. By mid next week, the mid-level pattern could get quite amplified as a deep long-wave trough may dig into the interior western CONUS, pumping central and eastern CONUS ridging out ahead of it, with unseasonably warm temperatures distinctly possible after a few cool and cloudy days. Our forecast is carrying daily rain/shower chances starting Sunday, though there will certainly be dry periods. The ECMWF keeps the elevated baroclinic zone close enough by that there could even be some isolated thunder chances in parts of the area Monday-Tuesday. Highest confidence for thunder chances (albeit with low PoPs due to uncertainty that far out) is next Wednesday when dew point values could possibly surge into the 60s behind lifting warm front. Castro && .FIRE WEATHER... 809 PM CDT The next few days will still feature elevated fire weather conditions even with a much colder airmass arriving as it will continue to be very dry and breezy. Saturday is another day we will need to watch for potential critical fire weather concerns. KJB/KMD/Kluber && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Southwest wind gusts continue to decrease at press time in accordance with the setting sun. A wind shift to westerly will occur between 01-02Z, followed by an increase in wind gusts to 25 to 30 kts (and a subtle shift in direction to west northwest) after 06-07Z. West northwest winds will continue through much of Thursday before relaxing during the evening hours. Broken to overcast skies and virga are likely through the overnight hours. Borchardt && .MARINE... 809 PM CDT An active stretch on the lake will continue through Saturday night. West to northwest winds up to 30 kt are expected to develop behind a cold front tonight into Thursday. A few gale force gusts are possible during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Hazardous waves will persist for the Indiana shore through late Thursday night/early Friday. Friday could have speeds/gusts up to 25 kt but with west- southwest direction, waves will be held in check. The next period of concern for southerly gales continue to be on Saturday into Saturday night ahead of the next cold front. Castro/Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033- ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...1 AM Friday to 9 AM Friday. IN...Freeze Watch...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM Friday to 9 AM Friday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 3 PM Thursday. Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
901 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 348 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020 Latest RAP analysis, GOES Satellite, and Hi-res guidance showing a closed surface low of 997mb over the Northern Plains. This low is moving along the base of an upper-level low seen at 500mb, located over the Hudson Bay. This low still has a negative tilt to it and will dig a bit, which will help strengthen the surface low through the rest of the day and into tonight, bringing another round of rain and gusty winds. Once the low passes, caa will usher in the colder air, allowing lake-effect precip to form over the northwest wind belts with winds turning from the southeast to the northwest. Some CAMs are trying to hold onto some precip chances out east Thursday afternoon and latest 12z runs are hanging onto some Lake-Effect rain out east. With the blustery northwest winds, there is the concern of some Lakeshore Flooding east of Marquette along Lake Superior. Ahead of this surface low approaching, GOES satellite shows that cirrus shield moving across the UP and with a decent mid to upper level jet of 130+ kt (a little lower from the previous discussion), plenty of fgen with the warm sector of the low will help maintain these showers through the rest of the afternoon and evening. There will be a brief period of dry weather before the cold front swings through later tonight. Depending on how long the dry stretch is, there is decent mixed layer which could help aid some gusty southeast winds, especially over the east and along the Lake Superior shoreline with downsloping. With the dry slot, some CAMs are trying to indicate more rain showers mainly over the west. An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out but given the fact I didn`t think thunderstorms would occur yesterday, would not surprise me if the same thing happened again over the west because 2020. In wake of the cold front passing, winds will become blustery from the northwest, which will trigger Lake-Effect rain, possibly mixing with snow with 850mb temps getting down close to -7C but drier air moves in by early afternoon which should be enough to cut off the Lake- Effect and if any occurs, more likely it will be in the form of rain. Lake-Effect rain showers could linger over the east through Thursday afternoon. With the onset of blustery northwest winds, went ahead and issued a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Alger and Luce Counties as minor Lakeshore Flooding and Beach Erosion is likely. Temperatures this afternoon should remain mostly in the 40s with a few 50s south-central. Did tweak temperatures a couple degrees cooler as Hi-res guidance was trending a bit cooler with clouds lingering with dry slot moving in ahead of cold front. Lows tonight should remain mostly in the 30s as clouds won`t clear out as much as last night. Thursday will have almost a late fall feeling with highs in the 40s but with blustery winds, will feel colder than that. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020 Active pattern continues in the long term as deep troughing extending south out of a mid-upper level low over northern Manitoba looks to park itself over the Upper Great Lakes. This trough will allow cold air to sink south into the region, giving the Upper Great Lakes a period of below normal temperatures. Additionally, this cold air will set off some lake effect precip Thursday night and Friday. Attention will then turn toward a potential stronger storm at the base of the next trough axis this weekend. Beginning Thursday night and Friday, with the early Thursday low northeast of the region, the next shortwave pivoting through the base of the trough axis should be over the forecast area early in this period, helping to kick off a round of light precip. 850mb temps look to be around -6 to -8C and with lake temps hovering around 8C, the instability should be enough for some lake induced showers to continue, mainly in the west wind belts overnight. Precip type does look to be primarly snow given the sufficient lift and moisture within the DGZ, as well as low wetbulb zero heights. Soundings also highlight inverions near 10k ft and a low directionally shear`d environment, but also a healthy low level dry layer near the surface. Given this dry layer, confidence is low that much, if any, accumultion will be realized. Overnight lows should drop into the 20s for regions away from the lakeshore. The timing of the next shortwave looks to be Friday afternoon. Similarly to the Thursday evening/night shortwave, the lake effect parameters are there, but given the low level dry layer, I`m skeptical about much, if any accumulation. Day time highs should climb into the 40s, with mid-upper 40s in the east and low 40s in the west. Overnight Friday looks to be dominated by slight surface ridging, which should help keep mostly clear skies for most of the overnight period. This will allow lows to dip down in to the low 20s for many in the west and mid 20s elsewhere, except by Lake Michigan where low 30s are possible. I wouldn`t be surprised if some of the traditionaly colder locations ended up in the high teens. By sunrise, cloud cover will begin filtering in the west ahead of the next system. Guidance appears to have a good handle on the progression of the next low. Timing among the determinisitics and ensembles bring the low through the region Saturday night, with precip spreading over the region beginning Saturday afternoon. In terms of precip type, increasing WAA ahead of the low should help transition any early snow or rain/snow showers over to all rain for a period. Immediately following the low, increasing CAA may switch back ptypes to rain/snow mix or pure snow as well as induce some lake enhancement. Similarly to today`s sytem, the low appears to be influnced by left exit jet dynamics, which will help deepen the system as it transits through the Upper Great Lakes. As the pressure gradient tightens, the increasing southerly winds may spell some lakeshore flooding or beach erosion concerns for Lake Michigan lakeshores. As we get closer to this event, these details will be ironed out. Beyond this, the guidance diverages on the pattern, with the GFS and Canadian presenting a solution with the gradual lifting of the mid- upper level low followed by zonal flow. This contrasts with the EC, which highlights an amplifed pattern with deep troughing over the west and ridging in the east becoming established. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 820 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020 KIWD and KCMX...VFR conditions early this evening will quickly lower to MVFR and perhaps even briefly to IFR late this evening into the overnight hours as lake enhanced/lake effect showers move in behind the passage of a cold front. Northwest winds will also get quite gusty behind the front with gusts over 30 knots at KIWD and over 35 knots at KCMX late tonight into early Thu. Expect gradual improvement in conditions through Thu at both sites perhaps even improving to low-end VFR late in the day as drier air works in from the low-levels. Northwest winds will also diminish by late Thu as the low pressure system affecting our area tonight lifts off into Quebec. KSAW...IFR conditions at KSAW will briefly improve to VFR this evening but then lower again to MVFR late tonight as a stratocu deck moves in behind the cold frontal passage. Expect gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots to kick in late tonight and then continue through much of the day on Thu. Conditions will improve to VFR in the afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 348 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020 Still looking like an active period across the lake for this forecast period with multiple gale events to highlight. First is the southeast gales for the east half tonight. Winds up to 40 kts through the evening hours. There will be a lull tonight as a low pressure will move across the lake with a cold front moving across, switching the winds coming from the northwest leading to next gale event after midnight tonight into early Thursday. Winds over the west half will be between 35-40 kts while the east half will see winds 40-45 kts with waves up to 16 ft. With this, did not change headlines from overnight shift and agreed to keep east half under continuous Gale warning through late afternoon Thursday. Winds will finally relax to under 20 kts by late Thursday into Friday. Next system approaches Saturday afternoon into Sunday as models coming into good agreement on timing but not strength of winds. For now expect southerly winds between 20-30 kts with some gale force gusts Saturday night then becoming northwest gales over east half Sunday morning as system passes through before subsiding. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ006-007. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162- 240>242-263. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
912 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Overview...High winds will continue to impact the area. High Wind Warnings are in effect through 7PM this evening. Below average temperatures post-front tomorrow. Synopsis...High winds will continue to be the main topic of discussion today as a strong upper-level jet streak with associated winds ranging from 100 to 120 kts will move across the area. Model disagreement on the strength of the jet and location of the jet does exist; nonetheless, upper-level winds will mix down and cause high wind issues at the surface. Especially in the southern part of the state where the jet max is forecasted to pass through. 700 mb winds only reinforce the strength of the winds across the area. Based on the previous discussion, went and removed Lander Foothills and both sides of the Wind River Range due to lack of convincing evidence for high winds. Winds will gradually decrease across most of the area this evening as decoupling takes place; however, a few locations may see breezy conditions. An associated cold front will cross the region today but due to lack of moisture most of the area will stay dry. With orographic lift a few showers in the mountains could develop but due to below freezing mid-level temperatures snow can be expected. As the front departs this evening, CAA will filter in behind keeping temperatures brisk and below average for Thursday. Precipitation in the northern mountains can still be expected. Confidence is low on what the winds are going to do as upper-level support continues the trend of what we`ve been seeing but models seem to disagree with the overall strength of the winds. The GFS looks to continue the trends of strong winds in the south but not as strong as today. The Euro takes all strong winds out of the forecast in agreement with the HRRR and NAM; therefore, keeping widespread highlights out of the forecast for Thursday. As the trough slides eastward height rises ahead upstream ridging will allow temperatures to warm into more seasonal norms. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Northwest flow looks to prevail through the weekend with the best chance for precipitation coming across the northern-third of the forecast area. Strong jet across Wyoming through Thursday will lift north and east of the state Friday with warmer air returning from the southwest. Temperatures will climb back to just above normal for most locations. Gusty westerly wind 15-30kts expected from the I-80 corridor to Casper, but speeds will be less than those of the previous two days. Jet streak within the northwest flow will push into northwest Wyoming Friday night. This will aid precipitation development across the north overnight and through Saturday morning. This jet streak and a shortwave passing to our north will combine to allow a weak cold frontal boundary to slide south Saturday. This will cool temperatures east of the Continental Divide, particularly across the north. Central areas may still climb to near seasonal normals before the front passes in the afternoon. Northern areas could be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while the southwest stays warmer than average. Expect gusty west wind across the I-80 corridor ahead of the front with north to northwest wind behind the front east of the Divide. Sunday looks quite similar to Saturday, although westerly winds may surface in central areas to replace the northerly wind from Saturday afternoon and evening. Models still show disagreement on the evolution of the early week pattern across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Overall, temperatures seen over the weekend show little change for the first half of next week. The coldest air will remain across the north with the warmest readings over the southwest. West or northwest flow aloft would still pinpoint the northwest as the most likely location for low precipitation chances given favorable orographics. Most areas will probably remain dry Monday through Wednesday. Gusty west wind would be most prevalent over the southern-third of the state during this period. Bottom line, at this moment there does not appear to be any large-scale weather system or significant cold spell set to impact the region through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 909 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Isolated showers will occur over the north, east of the Divide, through about 06Z Friday. Most of this activity will be over and near the mountains. The precipitation will be snow in the mountains and a mix of snow and rain in the lower elevations. Will have VCSH at KCOD Thursday afternoon as high resolution models show an upward trend in coverage. Otherwise, dry with breezy/windy west to northwest wind Thursday afternoon, but not as strong as what occurred today. The winds are expected to quickly diminish between 00Z and 02Z Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued AT 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Northwest flow will continue across the region through the remainder of the work week. As a result, gusty northwest wind will persist although speeds will be on the decrease from the high winds seen on Wednesday. There will be enough moisture in northwest flow to keep lingering showers in the forecast across the far northern mountains. Otherwise, it will be dry through Friday. Cooler air will slide south through the state tonight and Thursday with high temperatures Thursday 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Seasonal temperatures will return Friday as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Smoke dispersal will be very good each afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vorst LONG TERM...CNJ AVIATION...Murrell FIRE WEATHER...CNJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 .UPDATE... Cold front currently across central Oklahoma this evening will continue to drift southeast overnight. Southerly winds ahead of the front across the ArkLaTex to persist around 5 to 10 mph. Ceilings to develop across the region by daybreak as low-level moisture increases ahead of the front. With increased cloud-cover, warmer overnight low temperatures expected tonight as compared to last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. /05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ AVIATION... Southeast winds around 5 knots overnight to become northeast at 10 to 15 knots and gusty after 15/18Z as a cold front moves across the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings expected around daybreak as the front approaches the region. Could see postfrontal showers on Thursday across ELD/TXK/SHV terminal sites. Otherwise conditions to gradually improve to VFR from the northwest after 15/22Z. /05/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/ The next cold front will proceed through our area througout the day tomorrow, with low stratus clouds drifting into the area from the south overnight. Highs will be moderated with rain and cloud cover below 80 degrees north of the I-20 corridor and approaching 70 degrees near the I-30 corridor. Models are in agreement, especially the HREF, HRRR and NAM, in having most of the precipitation being post-frontal in position as mainly showers lingering until the late evening hours. Expect total rainfall amounts 0.10-0.25 inches as low temperatures return back into the mid-50s areawide. With skies clearing once again on Friday, high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper-60s. /16/ LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday night/ High pressure will be centered over E AR/W TN and with clear skies and light Easterly winds less than 5 mph, still good radiational cooling and chilly readings expected by daybreak. We will be 10 degrees below for all with 40s areawide. The high pressure center will continue Eastward and shift our winds a bit to the SE, this along with plenty of sunshine, will make for a good warm-up, but we will still be below average in the low to mid 70s on Saturday afternoon. By early Sunday the winds will be S/SE with much warmer 50s for most with even a few low 60s in E TX where the winds will be up a bit more. We may see some early clouds, but sunshine and S winds will boost temps back to average. Meanwhile, the afternoon will see arriving cloudiness and even a slight chance for some showers overnight by daybreak for the I-30 corridor. The new work week with see a slight chance for showers and some isolated thunderstorms for us as the moisture pools ahead of our next system. This is a secondary front that will keep to our north, but it may trigger some convective activity in the warm moist pooled air along I-30 for the most part initially and then heating will allow the remainder of our CWA to have a chance as well. However, this high center will drop out into the northern plains and head due East into the great lakes. We will have to wait for a third and much larger air mass by late work week that lies within much better agreement on the GFS and ECMWF. We will see additional showers and isolated thunderstorm during midweek ahead of this third air mass. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 64 78 54 66 / 0 30 50 20 MLU 56 78 54 66 / 0 10 50 20 DEQ 60 70 49 69 / 0 40 30 0 TXK 62 70 50 66 / 0 40 40 10 ELD 58 71 50 66 / 0 30 50 10 TYR 68 79 54 67 / 0 10 50 10 GGG 65 80 53 68 / 0 20 50 20 LFK 67 86 56 68 / 0 10 50 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 05/24/16/04