Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Tonight...a 1026mb surface high moves into the area from the north
by sunrise Thursday morning under decreasing cloudiness. With
northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph and dewpoints ranging from the
low to mid 20s west to around 30 east the current frost and freeze
headlines look good. Low temperatures are expected to range from the
mid to upper 20s in Yuma and Dundy counties to the mid to upper 30s
from Hill City to Oakley and Leoti. An elevated layer of smoke from
the Cameron Peak fire northwest of Fort Collins has reached a line
extending from Akron to Goodland and Oakley. The latest HRRR
suggests the "hazy" sky associated with the smoke will impact areas
mainly along and north of the interstate through early this evening
before dissipating.
Thursday-Thursday night...mid level clouds quickly move over much of
the area Thursday afternoon then exit the area after midnight under
fast northwest flow aloft. No precipitation is currently expected.
High temperatures look to reach the mid 50s to around 60 based on
blending the better performing bias corrected grids the past one and
seven day periods. This is also in line with 850mb temperatures. Low
temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s as a
1030mb surface high moves in, coldest temperatures across parts of
far eastern Colorado as well as Dundy county Nebraska and Cheyenne
county KS. Additional frost and freeze headlines are possible.
Friday-Saturday...the forecast area remains under northwest flow
aloft in between a large low pressure center over Canada and high
pressure near Baja. High temperatures Friday look to reach the low
to mid 60s with upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday. Lows Friday night in
the mid 30s to mid 40s. No precipitation is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
A broad upper trough extends from the Pacific Northwest southeast to
Arkansas and northeast to New England at the start of the period.
This places the region under northwest flow with a backdoor cold
front entering the area at the surface. Cooler air filters into the
region Saturday night, and with low temperatures in the low 30s
across the majority of the area (and mid 30s for the rest), there is
a good potential for a freeze (frost) early Sunday morning.
Cooler weather, with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s is forecast on
Sunday. There is a very small sliver of a slight chance of
precipitation north of the Nebraska border Sunday night behind the
front. With lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, any precipitation that
would manage to develop would likely changeover to snow (although no
accumulation is anticipated). To the south, where there is less
cloud cover, areas could see a frost/freeze.
Forecast confidence decreases Monday onward due to guidance varying
on the intensity of the upper trough. At this time, dry weather
looks to prevail with a deep low over eastern Canada on Monday.
There are hints of a disturbance coming towards the High Plains from
the Pacific Northwest midweek but we will have to wait and see if
this holds true. Temperatures slowly rebound from the upper 50s/low
60s on Monday to the mid/upper 60s on Tuesday. Lows remain in the
upper 20s to low 30s Monday and Tuesday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 00Z TAF
period. Gusty north winds will subside and become light out of the
north northwest this evening. Light north northwest winds will
persist through the remainder of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013-014-027-041.
CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for
COZ091-092.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for
COZ090.
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ080-081.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.UPDATE...
809 PM CDT
A relative lull in the winds has started across the area this
evening with westerly gusts generally under 25 mph. Multiple
boundaries/fronts are either approaching the CWA from the
northwest or shifting across the CWA at this time. The one of
focus is currently across southwest Wisconsin. Modest pressure
rises with CAA behind this front will result in WSW wind gusts to
35 mph overnight. While mid-level forcing will support mid to
upper-level precip development, the precip will likely remain as
virga given persistent low-level dry air in place. With that said,
isolated sprinkles would not be entirely surprising overnight.
Regarding Thursday night, a Freeze Watch has been issued for all
but the core of the Chicago metro. See the short term discussion
for more details. This watch was not issued during the normal
afternoon period to avoid any messaging complications given the
already active wind and fire headlines
Kluber
&&
.SHORT TERM...
240 PM CDT
Through Thursday night...
Much of the lower Great Lakes is in the warm and windy portion of
a deepening low pressure system across northern Minnesota. A
strong low level jet response has occurred and is spreading into
northern Illinois this afternoon, with 4 to 6.5 mb pressure falls/
3 hrs occurring. This jet core will shift overhead in the coming
hours in conjunction with some clearing skies. This has allowed
some deeper mixing at times -- and we have seen gusts peaking in
the upper 30s to lower 40s thus far already. Wind advisory will
remain intact through 7 pm CDT, with the core of the winds now
through about 6 pm. With some dry air not to far off the surface
per ILX morning soundings, dewpoints have not climbed as quickly
and we have been able to mix down drier air despite some broad
synoptic moisture increases. Have followed the HRRR dewpoints
which hold therefore relative humidity values in the 20 to 30
percent range. Earlier in the shift we expanded Red Flag Warning
for Cook and more recently for DuPage and Kane where clouds have
also thinned, but even outside of this area elevated fire weather
concerns continue.
The surface trough will move overhead this evening, bringing a
lull in the winds for a short time. The pressure rise is not a
strong with the low well to our north, but a 3-5 mb/3 hr pressure
rise in the later evening will result in gusty winds overnight,
though not to the magnitude of today. Colder air will also ease
its way in. The upper level jet will spread overhead tonight,
which will lead to a strengthening frontogenetical circulation,
but the strongest portion of this front is aloft. This coupled
with dry air suggests a decent "virga storm" tonight, basically a
thick band of mid level clouds that will lead to precipitation
development but with a lower chance of more than sprinkles making
it to the surface. This circulation will coincide with some
additional lower level saturation along and southeast of I-55
later tonight into Thursday morning where some showers may still
occur.
Thursday will feature much cooler conditions, and also quite a bit
drier in the absolute sense as dewpoints will also take a tumble.
But in the relative sense, relative humidity values will still be
fairly low, leading to elevated fire weather conditions yet again.
Fortunately winds will be a bit lower, more in the gusts 25-30 mph
range. Increasing sunshine mid morning into the afternoon will
allow highs to push through the 50s in spite of the northwest
winds.
The cold air mass will get some added push with the loss of
daylight Thursday evening. Have made few changes to the
temperature forecast with many areas outside of Chicago forecast
to dip below freezing given the dewpoints should still be into the
middle 20s. The center of high pressure will pass across central
Illinois, so we may not completely decouple, but the airmass is
still plenty cold enough. It does look like we can hold off
clouds at this distance to prevent any overnight warming as we
get back in the warm advection behind the high.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
310 PM CDT
Friday through Wednesday...
The main forecast concern continues to center on breezy and dry
conditions favorable for more rapid brush fire/wildfire spread on
Friday and Saturday. At this time, Saturday has higher potential
for critical fire weather conditions. An unsettled weather pattern
may then evolve to close out the weekend into next weekend, though
confidence is low on details.
After the chilly and in places frosty start to Friday, deep
mixing will yield increasing west-southwest winds. Gusts of at
least up to 25 mph are probable during the afternoon, and forecast
soundings indicate upside potential to 30+ mph, which will depend
on exactly how deep mixing gets. With temperatures recovering to
the mid to upper 50s and dew points down in the 20s, minimum RH
values will be near critical 25% values, especially with southward
extent. A moisture starved short-wave will bring an increase in
mid and high clouds and some high based sprinkles can`t be ruled
out, but continue to hold with a dry forecast.
A transient surface ridge will cause winds to diminish Friday
night, so under light winds and clearing skies, could have some
favored cool spots outside Chicago dip down to near freezing with
patchy frost possible. If a freeze headline is needed on Thursday
night/Friday AM, an end to the growing season may be declared for
at least portions of the CWA outside of Chicago.
The next shortwave in the seemingly endless wave train will affect
the area on Saturday, mainly with a robust low level wind
response. Overall setup is fairly similar to today, so will need
to watch for southerly wind gusts possibly pushing advisory
criteria (gusts up to 35 mph in the official forecast). Also of
note, the continued dry conditions/dry fuels. If dew points mix
out more than forecast, minimum RH values could near critical
levels as afternoon temperatures rise into the lower to mid 60s
(warmest south). If any spotty high based light showers or
sprinkles occur on Saturday, they would be favored to be north of
I-88 primarily during the morning.
Cold front trailing from Saturday`s low pressure that will track
well to our north will sweep across the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning, so breezy and mild conditions will continue into
Saturday evening ahead of the front. Medium-long range guidance is
generally trending toward ECMWF and its ensembles, as has been
discussed in previous long term AFDs. Frontogenetically driven
rain/showers could occur Sunday-Sunday night behind the front
should details trend toward consistent ECMWF. Thereafter, pattern
uncertainty relates to if and how far south of the CWA the
baroclinic zone gets shunted.
By mid next week, the mid-level pattern could get quite amplified
as a deep long-wave trough may dig into the interior western
CONUS, pumping central and eastern CONUS ridging out ahead of it,
with unseasonably warm temperatures distinctly possible after a
few cool and cloudy days. Our forecast is carrying daily
rain/shower chances starting Sunday, though there will certainly
be dry periods. The ECMWF keeps the elevated baroclinic zone close
enough by that there could even be some isolated thunder chances
in parts of the area Monday-Tuesday. Highest confidence for
thunder chances (albeit with low PoPs due to uncertainty that far
out) is next Wednesday when dew point values could possibly surge
into the 60s behind lifting warm front.
Castro
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
809 PM CDT
The next few days will still feature elevated fire weather
conditions even with a much colder airmass arriving as it will
continue to be very dry and breezy. Saturday is another day we
will need to watch for potential critical fire weather concerns.
KJB/KMD/Kluber
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Southwest wind gusts continue to decrease at press time in
accordance with the setting sun. A wind shift to westerly will
occur between 01-02Z, followed by an increase in wind gusts to 25
to 30 kts (and a subtle shift in direction to west northwest)
after 06-07Z. West northwest winds will continue through much of
Thursday before relaxing during the evening hours.
Broken to overcast skies and virga are likely through the
overnight hours.
Borchardt
&&
.MARINE...
809 PM CDT
An active stretch on the lake will continue through Saturday
night. West to northwest winds up to 30 kt are expected to develop
behind a cold front tonight into Thursday. A few gale force gusts
are possible during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Hazardous waves
will persist for the Indiana shore through late Thursday
night/early Friday. Friday could have speeds/gusts up to 25 kt but
with west- southwest direction, waves will be held in check. The
next period of concern for southerly gales continue to be on
Saturday into Saturday night ahead of the next cold front.
Castro/Kluber
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...1 AM Friday to
9 AM Friday.
IN...Freeze Watch...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM Friday
to 9 AM Friday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 3 PM Thursday.
Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
901 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020
Latest RAP analysis, GOES Satellite, and Hi-res guidance showing a
closed surface low of 997mb over the Northern Plains. This low is
moving along the base of an upper-level low seen at 500mb, located
over the Hudson Bay. This low still has a negative tilt to it and
will dig a bit, which will help strengthen the surface low through
the rest of the day and into tonight, bringing another round of rain
and gusty winds. Once the low passes, caa will usher in the colder
air, allowing lake-effect precip to form over the northwest wind
belts with winds turning from the southeast to the northwest. Some
CAMs are trying to hold onto some precip chances out east Thursday
afternoon and latest 12z runs are hanging onto some Lake-Effect rain
out east. With the blustery northwest winds, there is the concern of
some Lakeshore Flooding east of Marquette along Lake Superior.
Ahead of this surface low approaching, GOES satellite shows that
cirrus shield moving across the UP and with a decent mid to upper
level jet of 130+ kt (a little lower from the previous discussion),
plenty of fgen with the warm sector of the low will help maintain
these showers through the rest of the afternoon and evening. There
will be a brief period of dry weather before the cold front swings
through later tonight. Depending on how long the dry stretch is,
there is decent mixed layer which could help aid some gusty
southeast winds, especially over the east and along the Lake
Superior shoreline with downsloping. With the dry slot, some CAMs
are trying to indicate more rain showers mainly over the west. An
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out but given the fact I didn`t
think thunderstorms would occur yesterday, would not surprise me if
the same thing happened again over the west because 2020. In wake of
the cold front passing, winds will become blustery from the
northwest, which will trigger Lake-Effect rain, possibly mixing with
snow with 850mb temps getting down close to -7C but drier air moves
in by early afternoon which should be enough to cut off the Lake-
Effect and if any occurs, more likely it will be in the form of
rain. Lake-Effect rain showers could linger over the east through
Thursday afternoon. With the onset of blustery northwest winds, went
ahead and issued a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Alger and Luce
Counties as minor Lakeshore Flooding and Beach Erosion is likely.
Temperatures this afternoon should remain mostly in the 40s with a
few 50s south-central. Did tweak temperatures a couple degrees
cooler as Hi-res guidance was trending a bit cooler with clouds
lingering with dry slot moving in ahead of cold front. Lows tonight
should remain mostly in the 30s as clouds won`t clear out as much as
last night. Thursday will have almost a late fall feeling with highs
in the 40s but with blustery winds, will feel colder than that.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020
Active pattern continues in the long term as deep troughing
extending south out of a mid-upper level low over northern Manitoba
looks to park itself over the Upper Great Lakes. This trough will
allow cold air to sink south into the region, giving the Upper Great
Lakes a period of below normal temperatures. Additionally, this cold
air will set off some lake effect precip Thursday night and Friday.
Attention will then turn toward a potential stronger storm at the
base of the next trough axis this weekend.
Beginning Thursday night and Friday, with the early Thursday low
northeast of the region, the next shortwave pivoting through the
base of the trough axis should be over the forecast area early in
this period, helping to kick off a round of light precip. 850mb
temps look to be around -6 to -8C and with lake temps hovering
around 8C, the instability should be enough for some lake induced
showers to continue, mainly in the west wind belts overnight. Precip
type does look to be primarly snow given the sufficient lift and
moisture within the DGZ, as well as low wetbulb zero heights.
Soundings also highlight inverions near 10k ft and a low
directionally shear`d environment, but also a healthy low level dry
layer near the surface. Given this dry layer, confidence is low that
much, if any, accumultion will be realized. Overnight lows should
drop into the 20s for regions away from the lakeshore. The timing of
the next shortwave looks to be Friday afternoon. Similarly to the
Thursday evening/night shortwave, the lake effect parameters are
there, but given the low level dry layer, I`m skeptical about much,
if any accumulation. Day time highs should climb into the 40s, with
mid-upper 40s in the east and low 40s in the west.
Overnight Friday looks to be dominated by slight surface ridging,
which should help keep mostly clear skies for most of the overnight
period. This will allow lows to dip down in to the low 20s for many
in the west and mid 20s elsewhere, except by Lake Michigan where low
30s are possible. I wouldn`t be surprised if some of the
traditionaly colder locations ended up in the high teens. By
sunrise, cloud cover will begin filtering in the west ahead of the
next system.
Guidance appears to have a good handle on the progression of the
next low. Timing among the determinisitics and ensembles bring the
low through the region Saturday night, with precip spreading over
the region beginning Saturday afternoon. In terms of precip type,
increasing WAA ahead of the low should help transition any early
snow or rain/snow showers over to all rain for a period. Immediately
following the low, increasing CAA may switch back ptypes to
rain/snow mix or pure snow as well as induce some lake enhancement.
Similarly to today`s sytem, the low appears to be influnced by left
exit jet dynamics, which will help deepen the system as it transits
through the Upper Great Lakes. As the pressure gradient tightens,
the increasing southerly winds may spell some lakeshore flooding or
beach erosion concerns for Lake Michigan lakeshores. As we get
closer to this event, these details will be ironed out.
Beyond this, the guidance diverages on the pattern, with the GFS and
Canadian presenting a solution with the gradual lifting of the mid-
upper level low followed by zonal flow. This contrasts with the EC,
which highlights an amplifed pattern with deep troughing over the
west and ridging in the east becoming established.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 820 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020
KIWD and KCMX...VFR conditions early this evening will quickly
lower to MVFR and perhaps even briefly to IFR late this evening
into the overnight hours as lake enhanced/lake effect showers move
in behind the passage of a cold front. Northwest winds will also
get quite gusty behind the front with gusts over 30 knots at KIWD
and over 35 knots at KCMX late tonight into early Thu. Expect
gradual improvement in conditions through Thu at both sites
perhaps even improving to low-end VFR late in the day as drier air
works in from the low-levels. Northwest winds will also diminish
by late Thu as the low pressure system affecting our area tonight
lifts off into Quebec.
KSAW...IFR conditions at KSAW will briefly improve to VFR this
evening but then lower again to MVFR late tonight as a stratocu
deck moves in behind the cold frontal passage. Expect gusty
northwest winds of 25-30 knots to kick in late tonight and then
continue through much of the day on Thu. Conditions will improve to
VFR in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 348 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2020
Still looking like an active period across the lake for this
forecast period with multiple gale events to highlight. First is the
southeast gales for the east half tonight. Winds up to 40 kts
through the evening hours. There will be a lull tonight as a low
pressure will move across the lake with a cold front moving across,
switching the winds coming from the northwest leading to next gale
event after midnight tonight into early Thursday. Winds over the
west half will be between 35-40 kts while the east half will see
winds 40-45 kts with waves up to 16 ft. With this, did not change
headlines from overnight shift and agreed to keep east half under
continuous Gale warning through late afternoon Thursday. Winds will
finally relax to under 20 kts by late Thursday into Friday. Next
system approaches Saturday afternoon into Sunday as models coming
into good agreement on timing but not strength of winds. For now
expect southerly winds between 20-30 kts with some gale force gusts
Saturday night then becoming northwest gales over east half Sunday
morning as system passes through before subsiding.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
MIZ006-007.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ249>251-266-267.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ245>248-265.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ243-244-264.
Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162-
240>242-263.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
912 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Overview...High winds will continue to impact the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect through 7PM this evening. Below average
temperatures post-front tomorrow.
Synopsis...High winds will continue to be the main topic of
discussion today as a strong upper-level jet streak with associated
winds ranging from 100 to 120 kts will move across the area. Model
disagreement on the strength of the jet and location of the jet does
exist; nonetheless, upper-level winds will mix down and cause high
wind issues at the surface. Especially in the southern part of the
state where the jet max is forecasted to pass through. 700 mb winds
only reinforce the strength of the winds across the area. Based on
the previous discussion, went and removed Lander Foothills and both
sides of the Wind River Range due to lack of convincing evidence for
high winds. Winds will gradually decrease across most of the area
this evening as decoupling takes place; however, a few locations may
see breezy conditions. An associated cold front will cross the
region today but due to lack of moisture most of the area will stay
dry. With orographic lift a few showers in the mountains could
develop but due to below freezing mid-level temperatures snow can be
expected.
As the front departs this evening, CAA will filter in behind keeping
temperatures brisk and below average for Thursday. Precipitation in
the northern mountains can still be expected. Confidence is low on
what the winds are going to do as upper-level support continues the
trend of what we`ve been seeing but models seem to disagree with the
overall strength of the winds. The GFS looks to continue the trends
of strong winds in the south but not as strong as today. The Euro
takes all strong winds out of the forecast in agreement with the
HRRR and NAM; therefore, keeping widespread highlights out of the
forecast for Thursday. As the trough slides eastward height rises
ahead upstream ridging will allow temperatures to warm into more
seasonal norms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Northwest flow looks to prevail through the weekend with the best
chance for precipitation coming across the northern-third of the
forecast area. Strong jet across Wyoming through Thursday will lift
north and east of the state Friday with warmer air returning from
the southwest. Temperatures will climb back to just above normal for
most locations. Gusty westerly wind 15-30kts expected from the I-80
corridor to Casper, but speeds will be less than those of the
previous two days. Jet streak within the northwest flow will push
into northwest Wyoming Friday night. This will aid precipitation
development across the north overnight and through Saturday morning.
This jet streak and a shortwave passing to our north will combine to
allow a weak cold frontal boundary to slide south Saturday. This
will cool temperatures east of the Continental Divide, particularly
across the north. Central areas may still climb to near seasonal
normals before the front passes in the afternoon. Northern areas
could be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while the southwest stays
warmer than average. Expect gusty west wind across the I-80 corridor
ahead of the front with north to northwest wind behind the front
east of the Divide. Sunday looks quite similar to Saturday, although
westerly winds may surface in central areas to replace the northerly
wind from Saturday afternoon and evening.
Models still show disagreement on the evolution of the early week
pattern across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Overall,
temperatures seen over the weekend show little change for the first
half of next week. The coldest air will remain across the north with
the warmest readings over the southwest. West or northwest flow
aloft would still pinpoint the northwest as the most likely location
for low precipitation chances given favorable orographics. Most
areas will probably remain dry Monday through Wednesday. Gusty west
wind would be most prevalent over the southern-third of the state
during this period. Bottom line, at this moment there does not
appear to be any large-scale weather system or significant cold
spell set to impact the region through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 909 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Isolated showers will occur over the north, east of the Divide,
through about 06Z Friday. Most of this activity will be over and
near the mountains. The precipitation will be snow in the mountains
and a mix of snow and rain in the lower elevations. Will have VCSH
at KCOD Thursday afternoon as high resolution models show an upward
trend in coverage. Otherwise, dry with breezy/windy west to
northwest wind Thursday afternoon, but not as strong as what
occurred today. The winds are expected to quickly diminish
between 00Z and 02Z Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 142 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Northwest flow will continue across the region through the remainder
of the work week. As a result, gusty northwest wind will persist
although speeds will be on the decrease from the high winds seen on
Wednesday. There will be enough moisture in northwest flow to keep
lingering showers in the forecast across the far northern mountains.
Otherwise, it will be dry through Friday. Cooler air will slide
south through the state tonight and Thursday with high temperatures
Thursday 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Seasonal temperatures will return
Friday as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Smoke dispersal
will be very good each afternoon.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...Murrell
FIRE WEATHER...CNJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.UPDATE...
Cold front currently across central Oklahoma this evening will
continue to drift southeast overnight. Southerly winds ahead of
the front across the ArkLaTex to persist around 5 to 10 mph.
Ceilings to develop across the region by daybreak as low-level
moisture increases ahead of the front. With increased cloud-cover,
warmer overnight low temperatures expected tonight as compared to
last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak.
/05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/
AVIATION...
Southeast winds around 5 knots overnight to become northeast at 10
to 15 knots and gusty after 15/18Z as a cold front moves across
the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings expected around daybreak as the
front approaches the region. Could see postfrontal showers on
Thursday across ELD/TXK/SHV terminal sites. Otherwise conditions
to gradually improve to VFR from the northwest after 15/22Z. /05/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
The next cold front will proceed through our area througout the
day tomorrow, with low stratus clouds drifting into the area from
the south overnight. Highs will be moderated with rain and cloud
cover below 80 degrees north of the I-20 corridor and approaching
70 degrees near the I-30 corridor. Models are in agreement,
especially the HREF, HRRR and NAM, in having most of the
precipitation being post-frontal in position as mainly showers
lingering until the late evening hours. Expect total rainfall
amounts 0.10-0.25 inches as low temperatures return back into the
mid-50s areawide. With skies clearing once again on Friday, high
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper-60s. /16/
LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday night/
High pressure will be centered over E AR/W TN and with clear skies
and light Easterly winds less than 5 mph, still good radiational
cooling and chilly readings expected by daybreak. We will be 10
degrees below for all with 40s areawide. The high pressure center
will continue Eastward and shift our winds a bit to the SE, this
along with plenty of sunshine, will make for a good warm-up, but we
will still be below average in the low to mid 70s on Saturday
afternoon.
By early Sunday the winds will be S/SE with much warmer 50s for most
with even a few low 60s in E TX where the winds will be up a bit
more. We may see some early clouds, but sunshine and S winds will
boost temps back to average. Meanwhile, the afternoon will see
arriving cloudiness and even a slight chance for some showers
overnight by daybreak for the I-30 corridor.
The new work week with see a slight chance for showers and some
isolated thunderstorms for us as the moisture pools ahead of our
next system. This is a secondary front that will keep to our north,
but it may trigger some convective activity in the warm moist pooled
air along I-30 for the most part initially and then heating will
allow the remainder of our CWA to have a chance as well. However,
this high center will drop out into the northern plains and head
due East into the great lakes. We will have to wait for a third
and much larger air mass by late work week that lies within much
better agreement on the GFS and ECMWF. We will see additional
showers and isolated thunderstorm during midweek ahead of this
third air mass. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 64 78 54 66 / 0 30 50 20
MLU 56 78 54 66 / 0 10 50 20
DEQ 60 70 49 69 / 0 40 30 0
TXK 62 70 50 66 / 0 40 40 10
ELD 58 71 50 66 / 0 30 50 10
TYR 68 79 54 67 / 0 10 50 10
GGG 65 80 53 68 / 0 20 50 20
LFK 67 86 56 68 / 0 10 50 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
05/24/16/04