Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .AVIATION... The cold front exiting south of the Ohio border during the evening left behind a disorganized pattern of clouds mainly from PTK to the DTW corridor. Intervals of clear sky, broken VFR ceiling less than 5000 ft, and MVFR ceiling all observed during the evening becomes a more consistent ceiling as the night progresses and settles around the VFR/MVFR borderline. Farther north, observations leading up to midnight support development of MVFR stratocu with moisture supplied by Lake Huron. Expect these clouds to spread inland toward MBS and FNT, and possibly brush PTK during the late night through about sunrise. After that, the wind shifts more easterly which reduces cloud influence from Lake Huron while increasing the influence from Lake Erie/Ontario. Surface high pressure exiting toward the Atlantic coast also allows a northward drift of clouds linked with the Ohio valley front. Observations along the southern shoreline of Lake Erie suggest MVFR is possible toward DTW mid to late morning before lifting into VFR during the afternoon into Sunday evening. For DTW... NE wind holds speed in the 10 to 15 knot range during the night and then shifts toward the east and remains unfavorable for preferred traffic flow during the day. Clouds that have been variable in coverage become more solid during the late night and morning with some MVFR ceiling likely as the wind turns easterly. Ceiling height then follows a slowly rising trend during the afternoon. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight into Sunday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 DISCUSSION... The 12z DTX raob indicated a PW value of 1.12 inches/158 Percent of normal. However, the cold front dropping south through southern Lower Michigan has little to no upper level support as 500 MB heights already begin to rise this evening. Still, will have an isolated shower/sprinkle threat late this afternoon with the low level convergence, mainly far eastern areas/southern Thumb region as there is some modest cape in the 800-700 MB layer per Rap soundings. Otherwise, strong upper level northwest confluent flow allowing high pressure (1026+ MB) to build along the Ontario/Quebec border tonight. Enough easterly flow and drying in the low levels tonight to mitigate fog potential, with mins dropping into the 40s outside of the urban heat island of Detroit. Ridging aloft and at the surface in place on Sunday, but trapped moisture underneath subsidence inversion toward the Ohio border, especially as winds gradually veer a bit more to the southeast, with Lake Erie then becoming an increasing factor as we head into the evening, assuring developing low clouds and even an outside shot of some drizzle spreading northward Sunday night. Categorical rain showers appear to be in the offing for late Monday afternoon/early evening as upper level wave/jet energy coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest carves out a significant trough working through the Midwest, with the axis neutral to even slightly negative tilted. The cold front is progged to track through the Central Great lakes Monday evening. Even without any moisture contribution from the remnants of Delta, strong dynamics and frontal forcing should be sufficient. Showalter index at or slightly below zero suggests embedded thunder not totally out of the question as well, although considerable speed bump/warm/dry layer noted around 700 MB and will leave mention out. Stout/but shorted lived post frontal cold advection behind the front Monday night with good warm advection kicking in on Tuesday (850 MB temps approaching 10 C) ahead of the next shortwave, which looks to be tracking mostly through the northern Great Lakes. Decent agreement with more aggressive Pacific energy coming ashore early next weak, allowing the quasi-zonal flow over the northern CONUS to buckle and carve out a longwave trough over Central North America by Friday morning, delivering some very cold air to the Great Lakes region to start the Weekend (somewhere in the -3 to -6 C range at 850 MB). How exactly we transition there in the Wednesday- Thursday time frame remains in question, as there is a wide range of solutions with the strength of the surface low within the 00z Euro ensemble solutions. 12z Canadian has trended stronger, with the 12z GFS still lagging a bit. The rapid deepening is taking place as the system tracks through the region, which complicates the best timing of showers, but the outgoing forecast for low chance pops on Thursday seems to be a bit underdone and would expect continued revisions upward. MARINE... A series of cold fronts will continue to move southeast across the region the remainder of today bringing perhaps a few isolated showers mainly to the Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie waters this evening. Winds will continue to turn northerly in the wake of these fronts and remain moderate in strength, with gusts generally confined in the 15-20 knot range. The persistent onshore flow into outer Saginaw Bay and along the nearshore Lake Huron waters of the Thumb will lead to hazardous small craft conditions due to elevated and choppy waves beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. As high pressure ridges southward in the wake of the fronts Sunday, winds will turn a bit more easterly in direction, which will allow waves to slowly decrease throughout the day. A broad area of low pressure and attendant frontal boundaries will then approach the central Great Lakes from the upper Midwest Monday bringing the next chance for widespread rain. Winds will veer to the southeast and attempt to strengthen ahead of this feature, with gusts possibly reaching up to 30 knots at times over the open Lake Huron waters. In the wake of this system, moderate southwesterly flow will prevail over the local waters for the middle of next week. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ049. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ055-063. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......IRL You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
706 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Red Flag Warning for this afternoon has been cancelled. Wind and relative humidity conditions continue to improve and areas in the warning were not meeting RFW criteria. No other changes have been made to Sunday and Monday`s concerns for fire weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 500mb RAP analysis and water vapor imagery showed upper ridging centered along the Plains this afternoon. To the west, an upper trough approached the Intermountain West from the west coast. Sunny to mostly sunny skies were observed across the region as east winds shifted to the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. At 2:00 PM MDT, temperatures ranged in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight as the ridge slides east of the Plains and the western disturbance moves into the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing strengthens along the Front Range and a cold front pushes into the northern Plains. Winds turn southerly at 10 to 15 mph while temperatures fall mainly into the mid 40s to upper 50s. Sunday will be a relatively active weather day for the region, with highs in the upper 70s to low 90s from northwest to southeast. The aforementioned trough nudges into the High Plains, sending the cold front across the area in the afternoon. As the front moves through, winds are expected to quickly shift from southwest to northwest and increase, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. With how dry it has been, it doesn`t seem like a stretch to say that blowing dust will be possible. Additionally, winds will likely filter wildfire smoke from north central Colorado into the area. Winds should relax behind the boundary from northwest to southeast through the evening. Temperatures fall into the mid 30s to low 40s Sunday night. As was alluded to, conditions have been quite dry, and it appears that precipitation with the front will stay east of the region. The combination of gusty winds and relative humidity values in the 10 to 15 percent range previously lead to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for most of the region for Sunday. With little change to the forecast, this highlight remains in place. In addition, have placed the remainder of the region (Graham and Norton counties) in a Fire Weather Watch. Confidence for these two counties was not high enough due to the stronger winds not looking to reach there until later in the afternoon when relative humidities are already coming back up. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 214 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 The main story in the extended forecast will be a significant cool down which will last through most of the period. An upper trough will be situated over the Central High Plains Monday morning with cooler air filtering into the region. High temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal, ranging from the low to mid-70s. Normal highs for this time of the year range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Dry conditions will persist through the day with breezy conditions expected. Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible, particularly along and west of the Kansas-Colorado border where minimum relative humidity values will fall into the mid-teens in the afternoon. A shortwave trough coming off of the Rockies will move through southwestern Kansas Monday evening. Dry conditions will persist overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Northwest flow will persist over the area through Thursday as an upper trough broadens across much of the northern CONUS. By Thursday morning, the trough will extend west to east from northwestern Montana to New England, and south into southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas. Near normal highs will be expected Tuesday before a brief return to the 80s on Wednesday. Wednesday evening, a cold front will swing south into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the cold front will continue to push into the region. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid-30s for counties along and west of Highway 27. Areas east of the highway will have lows range from the mid-30s to low 40s. Cooler air will continue to push into the region on Thursday. Expect below normal temperatures with highs ranging form the mid-50s to low 60s. Thursday night into Friday morning, lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid-30s. Those with sensitive plants will want to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days. Friday begins a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Expect dry conditions and temperatures returning to the 70s by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Mainly VFR conditions for both terminals. Blowing dust and smoke will begin to be an issue from 20z Sunday onward. At this time only 6sm in visibility reduction due to uncertainty of the vicinity of the blowing dust to the terminals. Winds for KGLD, SSE around 10-20kts thru 10z Sunday, then becoming SW around 15-20kts. By 20z, shifting to the NW around 25-35kts. LLWS 07z-10z Sunday 190@45kts for Flight Level 020. Winds for KMCK, SE around 10kts thru 11z Sunday, then S 10-20kts. By 17z, SW around 10kts, becoming NW 25-35kts by 21z. LLWS 07z- 11z Sunday 180@40kts for Flight Level 020. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 705 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 For Sunday, a Red Flag Warning remains in place for the majority of the region. Initially west winds at 20 to 30 mph will abruptly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph during the afternoon. This combined with relative humidities as low as 15 to 20 percent will cause critical fire weather conditions. Additionally, the two counties outside of the warning, Norton and Graham, have been placed in a Fire Weather Watch. At this time, confidence was not high enough for a warning due to higher relative humidity values and the gusty winds arriving later in the afternoon. Will continue to monitor. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN/KMK SHORT TERM...JBH LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...JN FIRE WEATHER...JN/KMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
734 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 The remnant low pressure of Hurricane Delta over the lower Mississippi river valley, will lift northeast into the eastern Ohio river valley during Sunday night. This will bring more clouds to central and especially southeast Illinois the rest of this weekend. Rain showers could also affect far southeast Illinois tonight into Sunday morning. Mild temperatures will continue into Monday. A cold front moving through late Sunday night and Monday will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to central and northeast Illinois. && .UPDATE... Issued at 734 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Backdoor cold front starting to edge into areas northeast of Bloomington and is headed southwest. Main effect will be with drier air and a northeast wind which may gust from 15-20 mph. The front washes out as it approaches the I-72 corridor, so overnight dew points likely to remain at or near 60 degrees south of there. Scattered to broken band of stratocumulus extends from northeast Missouri into northern Indiana, with humidity cross section off the RAP indicating it should roughly remain in that area. Updated zones/grids sent to mainly reflect the latest sky and wind trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Mid afternoon surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure (remnant low of Hurricane Delta) over west central MS. Meanwhile a cold front extended from southeast lower MI into northern IL just south of I-80 and into far nw MO. Mild upper 70s and lower 80s across CWA despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, with spiral of mid/high clouds from I-55 se and also have some cumulus cloud bands with bases of 3.5-5k ft. NHC takes remnant low of Delta ne into mid TN later Sunday morning and into central KY by sunset Sunday. Brunt of its rain showers now appear to stay se of CWA, though kept slight chance of showers overnight and Sunday morning in far se CWA and will also need to watch for possible patchy fog development later tonight with low stratus clouds possibly moving back into se IL. Weakening cold front to push into central IL dry this evening and get dissolved absorbed into Delta`s ne flow. So mainly a wind shift with winds turning ne and less than 10 mph. Mild lows overnight in the upper 50s north of I-72 and lower 60s south of I-72. Highs Sunday back in the upper 70s and lower 80s, coolest from I-74 north. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 A vigorous northern stream trof to dig into the Midwest during Sunday night and Monday, and push a cold front east toward the IL river by sunrise Monday and to the IN border by 18Z/1 pm Mon. This will likely produce a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms over nw CWA late Sunday night. SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk of severe storms over eastern IA with slight risk over western half of IA. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to pass thru central and ne IL on Monday into early Mon afternoon. Still looks like the chance of stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds will be east of CWA Monday afternoon. SPC day3 outlook just has general risk of thunderstorms over central and eastern IL on Mon. Highs Mon range from near 70 northern/nw CWA to mid to upper 70s in southeast IL. Breezy NW winds develop behind the cold front on Monday afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph expected. Weak high pressure settles into the Ozarks and mid MS river valley during Monday night and ridges over the Oh/TN river valleys on Tue. This will bring fair wx on Tue with return sw flow keeping temps milder. Highs Tue in the low to mid 70s after lows Mon night in the mid to upper 40s. Stronger sw winds develop Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs Wed in the 70s, upper 70s sw CWA and se IL. A stronger cold front pass thru IL during Wed night and early Thu and brings a chance of rain showers along with much colder air into the region late in the week. Highs Thu range from mid to upper 50s nw CWA to 65-70 in southeast IL. Highs Fri/Sat only in the mid 50s central IL and around 60 se IL. Lows thu night 35-40 and Fri night could be frosty with lows in the low to mid 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Main focus in the short term will be with a backdoor cold front pushing southwest. Looking for northeast winds to increase to 8-10 knots with some higher gusts near KPIA/KBMI in the 02-03Z time frame, but this front should wash out as it reaches the other central Illinois TAF sites. After that, a more gradual wind shift to the east/southeast is expected on Sunday. VFR conditions expected through the period, as the lower cloud decks late tonight and early Sunday morning should be south of KCMI/KDEC. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...07 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
610 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 The main concerns in the short term continue to be min RH along with strong winds and precipitation chances for Sunday. Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag warning for Sunday across fire weather zone 204 to align with the Red Flag warning already in place for zones 210 and 219. Decided to cancel the watch for zone 206. After adjusting the dewpoints to trend towards the RAP and NAM, min RH was around 16-25% for zone 206. Forecaster confidence was low in min RH getting any lower than 16% and expect most of the area to be closer to 20 to 25%, with only a window of an hour or 2 at the lower RH`s before the cold front pushes through minimizing the fire weather threat. Winds will be gusty on Sunday as there will be good mixing and strong winds in the mid levels. Bufkit soundings suggest wind gust greater than 35 mph at the surface in the afternoon. As for precipitation chances on Sunday, confidence is fairly low in precipitation chances, one concern will be a lack of moisture. Have kept precipitation chances generally below 30 percent for this reason. The best location for precipitation chances will be across north central Nebraska, where an isolated thunderstorm chance could also be possible if anything is able to develop. As for highs on Sunday, temperatures should reach the 80s across north central and southwest Nebraska, where cooler temperatures will be in the 70s across the northern Sandhills as the cold front will push through sooner in the day. The one caveat to temperatures not reaching the 80s, would be the cold front moving quicker into the forecast area. A few of the models including the EC have suggested a slightly quicker progression of the front, however trended towards the GFS and the NAM with the slower progression as they have been the most consistent. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Despite the cold front moving through on Sunday, temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to 70s. Another cold front will push through the region bringing colder temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s to low 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Precipitation chances will be minimal in the long term with the only very slight chance, Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 VFR is expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. There is a chance, about 40 percent, MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby will develop 12z-15z Sunday morning affecting areas east of highway 61. These flight conditions are associated with a warm front across KS this afternoon which will lift north through Nebraska tonight. VFR is generally expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska 18z-00z Sunday afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
924 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Updated to increase winds across the region for Sunday based on the latest hi-res model guidance, especially in gap flow areas near Canon City and Walsenburg. Humidity values will also be low, hovering around 15 percent for most of the area. Expecting extreme fire weather conditions from the San Luis Valley, east to the Kansas border for Sunday. Any outdoor burning should be postponed to another day, as any fire starts will spread rapidly. Strong cross winds are also possible Sunday early to mid afternoon on north to south highways. Those in light weight or high profile vehicles could tip over. Areas of blowing dust will also be possible on the Plains will likely reduce areas visibilities. Mozley UPDATE Issued at 801 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning for today. Humidity values are starting to rise over the warned areas, with a few wind gusts expected to near 25 mph through 11 pm. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...High Fire Danger Sunday... Winds over the far southeast plains have been slow to increase today, as lee surface trough has made only minor eastward progress from the I-25 corridor so far this afternoon. As a result, only areas to reach Red Flag Criteria have been ern El Paso County and the Palmer Divide, where gusts of 25-30 kts have been noted. Will keep current fire wx highlight up for now as HRRR suggests a few gusts approaching criteria over the plains until 00z, while stronger winds continue over/near the Palmer Divide. Winds diminish on the plains this evening, then westerly flow aloft strengthens ahead of approaching upper trough, leading to pockets of windy conditions over the mountains and along lee ern slopes by early Sunday morning. As a result, min temps will likely be all over the place depending on wind, with usually warm lee side locations staying mild most of the night. On Sunday, upper trough swings by to the north, with upper level jet across the northern half of Colorado through the day. Pattern will be a fairly classic set-up for warm/windy/dry/high fire danger conditions across the area, with winds increasing quickly as soon as mid-morning, especially in favored wly gap flow areas along the Arkansas River and near Walsenburg. By early afternoon, windy everywhere, with some gusts to 50 mph possible as deep mixing develops. Areas along the Continental Divide will stay moist enough to stay out of critical fire weather conditions, though winds here will be strong as well. Still looks like a few snow showers possible over the central mountains in the afternoon, though significant precip is not expected. Cold front will begin to slide south through the area by late afternoon, with a switch to more nw winds by 00z, especially over the plains. Max temps Sun again on the warm side, though perhaps a few degf cooler than today as mid-level temps begin to move downward. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Dry and breezy conditions are expected to continue through next weekend... Northwest flow will continue to dominate the area through the middle of next week. Conditions will remain dry with the potential for near- critical fire weather conditions during each afternoon. The highest chances for critical fire weather will be Monday afternoon over the southeast plains, due to low RH. However, conditions are marginal at this time and confidence is not yet high enough to warrant another highlight on top of existing Red Flags. Bumped up winds slightly from the NBM in accordance with the next wave traveling over the northern mountains Wednesday. A dry cold front is expected to drop through the plains Wednesday night into Thursday which will lower high temperatures over the eastern part of the area down into the low 60s, about a 20 degree drop from Wednesday. Once the front has passed expect temperatures to heat back up into the mid-high 70s by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. SE winds 15-20 kts are expected at the terminals this afternoon, with a brief period of lighter winds after sunset. Westerly flow aloft and at the surface will increase Sunday morning, with W-SW winds of 20-30 kts at all terminals by mid-morning, and some gusts over 40 kts possible after 18z Sun. Cold front Sunday afternoon will turn winds more nw at KCOS and KPUB 21z-00z, with potential for gusts 40-50 kts following the frontal passage. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ221-222- 224>237. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...PETERSEN