Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020
.AVIATION...
The cold front exiting south of the Ohio border during the evening
left behind a disorganized pattern of clouds mainly from PTK to the
DTW corridor. Intervals of clear sky, broken VFR ceiling less than
5000 ft, and MVFR ceiling all observed during the evening becomes a
more consistent ceiling as the night progresses and settles around
the VFR/MVFR borderline. Farther north, observations leading up to
midnight support development of MVFR stratocu with moisture supplied
by Lake Huron. Expect these clouds to spread inland toward MBS and
FNT, and possibly brush PTK during the late night through about
sunrise. After that, the wind shifts more easterly which reduces
cloud influence from Lake Huron while increasing the influence from
Lake Erie/Ontario. Surface high pressure exiting toward the Atlantic
coast also allows a northward drift of clouds linked with the Ohio
valley front. Observations along the southern shoreline of Lake Erie
suggest MVFR is possible toward DTW mid to late morning before
lifting into VFR during the afternoon into Sunday evening.
For DTW... NE wind holds speed in the 10 to 15 knot range during the
night and then shifts toward the east and remains unfavorable for
preferred traffic flow during the day. Clouds that have been
variable in coverage become more solid during the late night and
morning with some MVFR ceiling likely as the wind turns easterly.
Ceiling height then follows a slowly rising trend during the
afternoon.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight into Sunday
evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020
DISCUSSION...
The 12z DTX raob indicated a PW value of 1.12 inches/158 Percent of
normal. However, the cold front dropping south through southern
Lower Michigan has little to no upper level support as 500 MB
heights already begin to rise this evening. Still, will have an
isolated shower/sprinkle threat late this afternoon with the low
level convergence, mainly far eastern areas/southern Thumb region as
there is some modest cape in the 800-700 MB layer per Rap soundings.
Otherwise, strong upper level northwest confluent flow allowing high
pressure (1026+ MB) to build along the Ontario/Quebec border
tonight. Enough easterly flow and drying in the low levels tonight to
mitigate fog potential, with mins dropping into the 40s outside of
the urban heat island of Detroit.
Ridging aloft and at the surface in place on Sunday, but trapped
moisture underneath subsidence inversion toward the Ohio border,
especially as winds gradually veer a bit more to the southeast, with
Lake Erie then becoming an increasing factor as we head into the
evening, assuring developing low clouds and even an outside shot of
some drizzle spreading northward Sunday night.
Categorical rain showers appear to be in the offing for late Monday
afternoon/early evening as upper level wave/jet energy coming
onshore of the Pacific Northwest carves out a significant trough
working through the Midwest, with the axis neutral to even slightly
negative tilted. The cold front is progged to track through the
Central Great lakes Monday evening. Even without any moisture
contribution from the remnants of Delta, strong dynamics and frontal
forcing should be sufficient. Showalter index at or slightly below
zero suggests embedded thunder not totally out of the question as
well, although considerable speed bump/warm/dry layer noted around
700 MB and will leave mention out.
Stout/but shorted lived post frontal cold advection behind the front
Monday night with good warm advection kicking in on Tuesday (850 MB
temps approaching 10 C) ahead of the next shortwave, which looks to
be tracking mostly through the northern Great Lakes.
Decent agreement with more aggressive Pacific energy coming ashore
early next weak, allowing the quasi-zonal flow over the northern
CONUS to buckle and carve out a longwave trough over Central North
America by Friday morning, delivering some very cold air to the
Great Lakes region to start the Weekend (somewhere in the -3 to -6 C
range at 850 MB). How exactly we transition there in the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame remains in question, as there is a wide range of
solutions with the strength of the surface low within the 00z Euro
ensemble solutions. 12z Canadian has trended stronger, with the 12z
GFS still lagging a bit. The rapid deepening is taking place as the
system tracks through the region, which complicates the best timing
of showers, but the outgoing forecast for low chance pops on
Thursday seems to be a bit underdone and would expect continued
revisions upward.
MARINE...
A series of cold fronts will continue to move southeast across the
region the remainder of today bringing perhaps a few isolated
showers mainly to the Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie waters
this evening. Winds will continue to turn northerly in the wake of
these fronts and remain moderate in strength, with gusts generally
confined in the 15-20 knot range. The persistent onshore flow into
outer Saginaw Bay and along the nearshore Lake Huron waters of the
Thumb will lead to hazardous small craft conditions due to elevated
and choppy waves beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday
morning. As high pressure ridges southward in the wake of the fronts
Sunday, winds will turn a bit more easterly in direction, which will
allow waves to slowly decrease throughout the day. A broad area of
low pressure and attendant frontal boundaries will then approach the
central Great Lakes from the upper Midwest Monday bringing the next
chance for widespread rain. Winds will veer to the southeast and
attempt to strengthen ahead of this feature, with gusts possibly
reaching up to 30 knots at times over the open Lake Huron waters. In
the wake of this system, moderate southwesterly flow will prevail
over the local waters for the middle of next week.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ049.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ055-063.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-441.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ442-443.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......IRL
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
706 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Red Flag Warning for this afternoon has been cancelled. Wind and
relative humidity conditions continue to improve and areas in the
warning were not meeting RFW criteria. No other changes have been
made to Sunday and Monday`s concerns for fire weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
500mb RAP analysis and water vapor imagery showed upper ridging
centered along the Plains this afternoon. To the west, an upper
trough approached the Intermountain West from the west coast. Sunny
to mostly sunny skies were observed across the region as east winds
shifted to the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. At 2:00 PM MDT,
temperatures ranged in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Dry weather is expected to continue tonight as the ridge slides east
of the Plains and the western disturbance moves into the Rockies.
Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing strengthens along the Front
Range and a cold front pushes into the northern Plains. Winds turn
southerly at 10 to 15 mph while temperatures fall mainly into the
mid 40s to upper 50s.
Sunday will be a relatively active weather day for the region, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 90s from northwest to southeast. The
aforementioned trough nudges into the High Plains, sending the cold
front across the area in the afternoon. As the front moves through,
winds are expected to quickly shift from southwest to northwest and
increase, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. With how dry it has
been, it doesn`t seem like a stretch to say that blowing dust will
be possible. Additionally, winds will likely filter wildfire smoke
from north central Colorado into the area. Winds should relax behind
the boundary from northwest to southeast through the evening.
Temperatures fall into the mid 30s to low 40s Sunday night.
As was alluded to, conditions have been quite dry, and it appears
that precipitation with the front will stay east of the region. The
combination of gusty winds and relative humidity values in the 10 to
15 percent range previously lead to the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning for most of the region for Sunday. With little change to the
forecast, this highlight remains in place. In addition, have placed
the remainder of the region (Graham and Norton counties) in a Fire
Weather Watch. Confidence for these two counties was not high enough
due to the stronger winds not looking to reach there until later in
the afternoon when relative humidities are already coming back up.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
The main story in the extended forecast will be a significant
cool down which will last through most of the period. An upper
trough will be situated over the Central High Plains Monday morning
with cooler air filtering into the region. High temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above normal, ranging from the low
to mid-70s. Normal highs for this time of the year range from the
upper 60s to low 70s. Dry conditions will persist through the day
with breezy conditions expected. Near critical fire weather
conditions will be possible, particularly along and west of the
Kansas-Colorado border where minimum relative humidity values will
fall into the mid-teens in the afternoon.
A shortwave trough coming off of the Rockies will move through
southwestern Kansas Monday evening. Dry conditions will persist
overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.
Northwest flow will persist over the area through Thursday as an
upper trough broadens across much of the northern CONUS. By
Thursday morning, the trough will extend west to east from
northwestern Montana to New England, and south into southern
Nebraska and Northern Kansas. Near normal highs will be expected
Tuesday before a brief return to the 80s on Wednesday. Wednesday
evening, a cold front will swing south into southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the cold front will continue
to push into the region. Overnight lows will dip into the low to
mid-30s for counties along and west of Highway 27. Areas east of
the highway will have lows range from the mid-30s to low 40s.
Cooler air will continue to push into the region on Thursday. Expect
below normal temperatures with highs ranging form the mid-50s to low
60s. Thursday night into Friday morning, lows will fall into the
upper 20s to mid-30s. Those with sensitive plants will want to keep
an eye on the forecast in the coming days.
Friday begins a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Expect
dry conditions and temperatures returning to the 70s by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued
at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Mainly VFR conditions for both terminals. Blowing dust and smoke
will begin to be an issue from 20z Sunday onward. At this time
only 6sm in visibility reduction due to uncertainty of the
vicinity of the blowing dust to the terminals.
Winds for KGLD, SSE around 10-20kts thru 10z Sunday, then
becoming SW around 15-20kts. By 20z, shifting to the NW around
25-35kts. LLWS 07z-10z Sunday 190@45kts for Flight Level 020.
Winds for KMCK, SE around 10kts thru 11z Sunday, then S 10-20kts.
By 17z, SW around 10kts, becoming NW 25-35kts by 21z. LLWS 07z-
11z Sunday 180@40kts for Flight Level 020.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
For Sunday, a Red Flag Warning remains in place for the majority
of the region. Initially west winds at 20 to 30 mph will abruptly
shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up
to 50 mph during the afternoon. This combined with relative
humidities as low as 15 to 20 percent will cause critical fire
weather conditions. Additionally, the two counties outside of the
warning, Norton and Graham, have been placed in a Fire Weather
Watch. At this time, confidence was not high enough for a warning
due to higher relative humidity values and the gusty winds
arriving later in the afternoon. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
Sunday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for KSZ004-016.
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
Sunday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN/KMK
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN/KMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
734 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
The remnant low pressure of Hurricane Delta over the lower
Mississippi river valley, will lift northeast into the eastern
Ohio river valley during Sunday night. This will bring more clouds
to central and especially southeast Illinois the rest of this
weekend. Rain showers could also affect far southeast Illinois
tonight into Sunday morning. Mild temperatures will continue into
Monday. A cold front moving through late Sunday night and Monday
will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
central and northeast Illinois.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Backdoor cold front starting to edge into areas northeast of
Bloomington and is headed southwest. Main effect will be with
drier air and a northeast wind which may gust from 15-20 mph. The
front washes out as it approaches the I-72 corridor, so overnight
dew points likely to remain at or near 60 degrees south of there.
Scattered to broken band of stratocumulus extends from northeast
Missouri into northern Indiana, with humidity cross section off
the RAP indicating it should roughly remain in that area.
Updated zones/grids sent to mainly reflect the latest sky and wind
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Mid afternoon surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure (remnant low
of Hurricane Delta) over west central MS. Meanwhile a cold front
extended from southeast lower MI into northern IL just south of
I-80 and into far nw MO. Mild upper 70s and lower 80s across CWA
despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, with spiral of mid/high
clouds from I-55 se and also have some cumulus cloud bands with
bases of 3.5-5k ft.
NHC takes remnant low of Delta ne into mid TN later Sunday
morning and into central KY by sunset Sunday. Brunt of its rain
showers now appear to stay se of CWA, though kept slight chance of
showers overnight and Sunday morning in far se CWA and will also
need to watch for possible patchy fog development later tonight
with low stratus clouds possibly moving back into se IL. Weakening
cold front to push into central IL dry this evening and get
dissolved absorbed into Delta`s ne flow. So mainly a wind shift
with winds turning ne and less than 10 mph. Mild lows overnight
in the upper 50s north of I-72 and lower 60s south of I-72. Highs
Sunday back in the upper 70s and lower 80s, coolest from I-74
north.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
A vigorous northern stream trof to dig into the Midwest during
Sunday night and Monday, and push a cold front east toward the IL
river by sunrise Monday and to the IN border by 18Z/1 pm Mon. This
will likely produce a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
over nw CWA late Sunday night. SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk
of severe storms over eastern IA with slight risk over western
half of IA. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to pass
thru central and ne IL on Monday into early Mon afternoon. Still
looks like the chance of stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds
will be east of CWA Monday afternoon. SPC day3 outlook just has
general risk of thunderstorms over central and eastern IL on Mon.
Highs Mon range from near 70 northern/nw CWA to mid to upper 70s
in southeast IL. Breezy NW winds develop behind the cold front on
Monday afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph expected.
Weak high pressure settles into the Ozarks and mid MS river valley
during Monday night and ridges over the Oh/TN river valleys on
Tue. This will bring fair wx on Tue with return sw flow keeping
temps milder. Highs Tue in the low to mid 70s after lows Mon night
in the mid to upper 40s. Stronger sw winds develop Wed ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs Wed in the 70s, upper 70s sw CWA and
se IL. A stronger cold front pass thru IL during Wed night and
early Thu and brings a chance of rain showers along with much
colder air into the region late in the week. Highs Thu range from
mid to upper 50s nw CWA to 65-70 in southeast IL. Highs Fri/Sat
only in the mid 50s central IL and around 60 se IL. Lows thu night
35-40 and Fri night could be frosty with lows in the low to mid
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Main focus in the short term will be with a backdoor cold front
pushing southwest. Looking for northeast winds to increase to 8-10
knots with some higher gusts near KPIA/KBMI in the 02-03Z time
frame, but this front should wash out as it reaches the other
central Illinois TAF sites. After that, a more gradual wind shift
to the east/southeast is expected on Sunday.
VFR conditions expected through the period, as the lower cloud
decks late tonight and early Sunday morning should be south of
KCMI/KDEC.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
610 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
The main concerns in the short term continue to be min RH along
with strong winds and precipitation chances for Sunday. Upgraded
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag warning for Sunday across
fire weather zone 204 to align with the Red Flag warning already
in place for zones 210 and 219. Decided to cancel the watch for
zone 206. After adjusting the dewpoints to trend towards the RAP
and NAM, min RH was around 16-25% for zone 206. Forecaster
confidence was low in min RH getting any lower than 16% and expect
most of the area to be closer to 20 to 25%, with only a window of
an hour or 2 at the lower RH`s before the cold front pushes
through minimizing the fire weather threat.
Winds will be gusty on Sunday as there will be good mixing and
strong winds in the mid levels. Bufkit soundings suggest wind
gust greater than 35 mph at the surface in the afternoon. As for
precipitation chances on Sunday, confidence is fairly low in
precipitation chances, one concern will be a lack of moisture.
Have kept precipitation chances generally below 30 percent for
this reason. The best location for precipitation chances will be
across north central Nebraska, where an isolated thunderstorm
chance could also be possible if anything is able to develop.
As for highs on Sunday, temperatures should reach the 80s across
north central and southwest Nebraska, where cooler temperatures
will be in the 70s across the northern Sandhills as the cold front
will push through sooner in the day. The one caveat to
temperatures not reaching the 80s, would be the cold front moving
quicker into the forecast area. A few of the models including the
EC have suggested a slightly quicker progression of the front,
however trended towards the GFS and the NAM with the slower
progression as they have been the most consistent.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Despite the cold front moving through on Sunday, temperatures will
remain above normal through Wednesday with temperatures remaining
in the upper 60s to 70s. Another cold front will push through the
region bringing colder temperatures for Thursday and Friday with
highs in the 50s to low 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Precipitation chances will be minimal in the long term
with the only very slight chance, Wednesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
VFR is expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight.
There is a chance, about 40 percent, MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby
will develop 12z-15z Sunday morning affecting areas east of
highway 61. These flight conditions are associated with a warm
front across KS this afternoon which will lift north through
Nebraska tonight.
VFR is generally expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska 18z-00z
Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Sunday for NEZ204-210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
924 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Updated to increase winds across the region for Sunday based on
the latest hi-res model guidance, especially in gap flow areas
near Canon City and Walsenburg. Humidity values will also be low,
hovering around 15 percent for most of the area. Expecting extreme
fire weather conditions from the San Luis Valley, east to the
Kansas border for Sunday. Any outdoor burning should be postponed
to another day, as any fire starts will spread rapidly. Strong
cross winds are also possible Sunday early to mid afternoon on
north to south highways. Those in light weight or high profile
vehicles could tip over. Areas of blowing dust will also be
possible on the Plains will likely reduce areas visibilities.
Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 801 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning for today. Humidity values
are starting to rise over the warned areas, with a few wind gusts
expected to near 25 mph through 11 pm. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
...High Fire Danger Sunday...
Winds over the far southeast plains have been slow to increase
today, as lee surface trough has made only minor eastward progress
from the I-25 corridor so far this afternoon. As a result, only
areas to reach Red Flag Criteria have been ern El Paso County and
the Palmer Divide, where gusts of 25-30 kts have been noted. Will
keep current fire wx highlight up for now as HRRR suggests a few
gusts approaching criteria over the plains until 00z, while stronger
winds continue over/near the Palmer Divide. Winds diminish on the
plains this evening, then westerly flow aloft strengthens ahead of
approaching upper trough, leading to pockets of windy conditions
over the mountains and along lee ern slopes by early Sunday morning.
As a result, min temps will likely be all over the place depending
on wind, with usually warm lee side locations staying mild most of
the night.
On Sunday, upper trough swings by to the north, with upper level jet
across the northern half of Colorado through the day. Pattern will
be a fairly classic set-up for warm/windy/dry/high fire danger
conditions across the area, with winds increasing quickly as soon as
mid-morning, especially in favored wly gap flow areas along the
Arkansas River and near Walsenburg. By early afternoon, windy
everywhere, with some gusts to 50 mph possible as deep mixing
develops. Areas along the Continental Divide will stay moist enough
to stay out of critical fire weather conditions, though winds here
will be strong as well. Still looks like a few snow showers possible
over the central mountains in the afternoon, though significant
precip is not expected. Cold front will begin to slide south through
the area by late afternoon, with a switch to more nw winds by 00z,
especially over the plains. Max temps Sun again on the warm side,
though perhaps a few degf cooler than today as mid-level temps begin
to move downward.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to continue through next
weekend...
Northwest flow will continue to dominate the area through the middle
of next week. Conditions will remain dry with the potential for near-
critical fire weather conditions during each afternoon. The highest
chances for critical fire weather will be Monday afternoon over the
southeast plains, due to low RH. However, conditions are marginal at
this time and confidence is not yet high enough to warrant another
highlight on top of existing Red Flags. Bumped up winds slightly
from the NBM in accordance with the next wave traveling over the
northern mountains Wednesday. A dry cold front is expected to drop
through the plains Wednesday night into Thursday which will lower
high temperatures over the eastern part of the area down into the
low 60s, about a 20 degree drop from Wednesday. Once the front has
passed expect temperatures to heat back up into the mid-high 70s by
the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. SE winds
15-20 kts are expected at the terminals this afternoon, with a brief
period of lighter winds after sunset. Westerly flow aloft and at the
surface will increase Sunday morning, with W-SW winds of 20-30 kts
at all terminals by mid-morning, and some gusts over 40 kts possible
after 18z Sun. Cold front Sunday afternoon will turn winds more nw
at KCOS and KPUB 21z-00z, with potential for gusts 40-50 kts
following the frontal passage.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ221-222-
224>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN