Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/09/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
917 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Main concerns through the period center around temps, winds and fire danger. The positive PNA pattern looks to start transitioning toward more of a zonal flow over the next couple days, or at least until a major system moves into the Northern Rockies toward the end of the period. For tonight, LLJ will help keep temps up over the eastern CWA, but the west should see a pretty good wind lull, with some temps probably falling a bit below the model blend. For Friday a very warm airmass will spread across most of the region, with quite warm afternoon temps expected, perhaps even a few records. In the afternoon, mixing up to as high as H800 looks possible. Given that expectation, went with the higher guidance numbers, which put us near the 90th percentile of the model blend MaxTs. The only spoiler could be elevated smoke, which is predicted to be fairly widespread by the HRRR smoke model. Friday night lows from the NBM look fine and were used. Grassland fire danger is likely to be around high to very high through Saturday given the continued low RHs in the afternoon. However, will hold off on any headlines for now as winds don`t look sufficient to meet criteria on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Really not much adjustment for the extended guidance. Plan is to maintain above average temperatures Saturday, peaking Sunday, with a stiff southeast pre-frontal breeze (1/2km winds up to 45kts in the GFS at 06Z Sun) followed by windy conditions in the post-frontal airmass. Looking at a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE in the mid levels Sunday afternoon as the front moves into far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, though there will be a strong surface inversion to contend with. After that, an upper low pivots northwards and then stalls in central Canada. This means the rest of the extended should have a steady feed of cooler Canadian/Northern Rockies sourced airmasses. A weak system or two could ride up over the Rockies and into our area on zonal flow, but generally at this timescale, they lack consistency and the flow doesn`t look like a good set up for moisture for this time of year either. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through the day Friday. Northwest winds will increase into the 15 to 25 knot range Friday afternoon. ***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 336 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Weak ridging is in place over the Central High Plains this afternoon with a shortwave coming into the Intermountain West. Winds this afternoon will be a little lighter than expected. This leaves concerns about the extent of fire weather conditions across the area. The best chance will be areas south of I-70 where low relative humidity values will be paired with some of the stronger winds. As far as the amount of time where highlight criteria will actually be in effect, confidence has gone down. The HRRR continues to show smoke moving into the area from the south late this afternoon and into the evening. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours with lows down to the mid 40s to the mid 50s. The shortwave will make its way through the area overnight. Dry conditions will persist tomorrow with flow becoming zonal. This will lead to a concern for more smoke in the area, coming from western wildfires. Relative humidity values will be in the single digits to teens once again for much of the region, however, winds will be a limiting factor for any fire weather highlights. Highs will range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Lows will be primarily in the 40s though a few low 50s cannot be entirely ruled out east of Highway 25. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 This part of the forecast will transition from record high temperatures and dry weather to seasonable temperatures with a chance for rain during the transition. An upper level trough will swing through the Plains Sunday and Sunday night. As the trough swings through, a strong cold front will accompany it. The surface pressure gradient will tighten and strong 850mb winds will also develop as the front moves through. Based on the latest data, there may be a brief window when the winds may gust 50 MPH or more as the front moves through. Am not too optimistic about rainfall chances due to the lift mainly being tied to the front as it moves through. Due to the ground being very dry, am a bit concerned about blowing dust potential as the front moves through. Even though this will be during the night, there could still be enough mixing as the front moves through to loft dust into the air. The winds will gradually decline Monday as the surface pressure gradient broadens. In addition to the frontal passage, Sunday looks to be the next chance for a concern of fire weather conditions being met. Relative humidity values look to fall earlier in the day than normal, which is also when the winds will be breezy still. The winds will be the determining factor. Confidence is greatest for fire weather concerns to occur over the west half of the forecast area. Another upper level trough will swing through the Plains mid week. Models disagree with how deep the trough will be and when it will move through. Some have as early as Wednesday, while others have as late as Wednesday night. Strong winds may accompany this frontal passage too. This trough is quite broad, and rather laminar, so am not expecting any rainfall with it. However, there may be enough cool air behind it to bring a hard freeze to the northwestern part of the forecast area Thursday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. For KGLD a south wind near 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the west around 07z by 12z then northwest and north at speeds around 12kts through 00z. After 01z winds will be light and variable. For KMCK light and variable winds expected from taf issuance through about 18z then establish a northwest and northerly direction at speeds around 7kts. Its possible for KGLD to see some reduced visibilities in smoke in the 12z-19z timeframe. At this time I wont be introducing any restrictions given low confidence but its possible that mvfr vis could occur. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...99