Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/05/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

 522 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although with
hazy skies. Some vsby reduction in smoke/haze is possible at KGUP and
KFMN by Monday afternoon, although forecast to remain VFR at this
time. Otherwise, westerly winds will get a bit gusty Monday
afternoon.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Record and near record high temperatures are expected daily for the
remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure gradually shifts
eastward over the state. On Monday, winds will become gusty enough
for some fire weather concerns over the east central highlands. Winds
will strengthen areawide next weekend, and there will be a chance
for rain and snow showers mainly in the mountains near the Colorado
border, as a disturbance crosses the central Rockies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Northwest flow aloft will increase over NM tonight and Monday as a
weak upper level wave shifts quickly southeast thru the region. Min
temps tonight will be chilly again over central and western NM with
strong inversions. The eastern plains will trend several degrees
warmer with lee side troughing deepening along the Front Range.

Deep mixing Monday afternoon will tap stronger winds aloft and lead
to breezy northwest winds from Farmington to ABQ and Clines Corners.
High temps will warm 10 to 15F above normal and a few record highs
are possible. Stronger winds, single digit humidity, and warm temps
with deteriorating drought conditions will increase fire danger over
much of the area. The most recent HRRR smoke guidance shows a large
area of elevated smoke/haze over the Great Basin shifting over NM
again Monday afternoon. Lighter winds and clear skies Monday night
will lead to more chilly temps with strong inversions.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Record and near record warmth is forecast to continue for the
remainder of the week as the western US ridge of high pressure shifts
eastward over the state while gradually weakening. Winds will
strengthen this weekend as an upper level trough crossing the
central Rockies strengthens southwest flow aloft and a sharp surface
trough develops in the lee of the southern Rockies. A few rain and
snow showers could develop near the CO border Sunday as a Pacific
cold front dives through the state, but the main concern will
probably be critical fire weather conditions since humidities will
remain very low and temperatures will remain above normal in most
places.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions will develop Monday in the area
from the Sandia/Manzano Mts east to Clines Corners. Another upper
level high center will drift over NM through the remainder of this
week with warm temps, low humidity, and lighter winds. A potential
pattern change is on the horizon by this weekend as a large scale
upper level trough approaches from the PacNW. Unfortunately, the
expected impacts from this system will most likely be just stronger
winds across NM for a few days.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ107.

&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

 847 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...Satellite and webcams showed smoke slowly clearing
across northwest portions of the forecast area late this afternoon
and evening. Clearing will push southeast overnight as a weak
cold front and northwest winds aloft bring cleaner air into the
area. Monday should arrive with decreased smoke across most areas,
but may linger across far southern portions of Oregon and Idaho.
Temperatures on Monday will be 3-7 degrees cooler than today.
Skies will be sunny with locally breezy winds through the Snake
River Plain. No updates this evening as the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR, except smoke layers may reduce visibility to
around 5 miles in some areas. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less
overnight, becoming W-NW less than 10 kt Monday afternoon. Winds
aloft near 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Satellite imagery
shows smoke already clearing in Baker County/OR. Latest HRRR
smoke model continues to clear out the smoke from NW to SE
tonight through Monday night as flow aloft becomes northwesterly.
Southern Harney and Malheur Counties and Idaho south of the Snake
Basin may not fully clear before upper flow again backs to
westerly late Monday night and Tuesday and begins to bring the
smoke back in. Max temps will be a dew degrees lower Monday, then
2 to 5 degrees higher again Tuesday with the larger warming on the
Oregon side. Breezy this evening in southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho, and again Monday afternoon in south-central Idaho, otherwise
light winds through Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Warm and dry conditions are
expected through Friday before an approaching system brings
increased clouds, winds and precipitation for Saturday and Sunday.
Models still differ on the arrival time of precipitation, but expect
up to 0.75-1.00in of precipitation over the mountains with generally
under 0.50in in the valleys with this system. Snow levels will lower
to around 6000-7000ft, with temperatures around 10 degrees below
normal as the core of the system moves over. Upper level ridging
returns after Sunday with a return to dry conditions.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 907 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight and prevail
through Thursday. A coastal trough will form Tuesday and move
out to sea by Wednesday bringing some showers mainly near the
coast. An upper level disturbance may bring unsettled weather
to the area Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track and required only very few
adjustments. Mesonet observations around Darien have finally
recorded 0.01" over the past hour.

High pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
build south and east tonight in wake of passing shortwave
energy crossing the Ohio Valley. A weak frontal wave riding
northeast along a weak stationary front offshore off the
Southeast U.S. coast will move farther away from the region
tonight. KCLX is still pinging some light returns along the
Georgia coast, but mesonet observations from Saint Simons to
Tybee Island have not registered any rainfall today. This
suggests this activity is falling as virga or light sprinkles
with the latest RAP sounding at Sapelo Island still showing a
fairly deep mid-level dry layer between 850-500 hPa. Did opt to
hold onto some slight chance pops along the Georgia coast for a
few more hours, but these should end as the front pushes farther
to the east and isentropic downglide commences. Lows from the
lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s along the beaches still
look on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday through Wednesday: Dry surface high pressure will prevail
through the period and rain-free conditions are expected on Monday.
By Tuesday morning, a coastal trough enters the waters from the
south, even trying to develop into a closed low off the Charleston
County coast by Tuesday afternoon. Low-end chance PoPs have been
placed along the coastline during the daytime period with most of
the rainfall occurring offshore and diminishing Tuesday by sunset.
Southeasterly H85 winds will begin to advect offshore moisture into
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with 70F+ dew points
creeping into the SE GA counties. Wednesday should remain rain-free
for much of the forecast area, however slight chance PoPs were
placed over the SE GA counties due to the increase moisture and
instability.

High temperatures will remain near normal Monday and Tuesday mid to
upper 70s. Temps are expected to be slightly warmer Wednesday due to
clearing skies and westerly downslope flow, with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Monday and Tuesday night min temps range from low/mid 50s
to the mid 60s nearest the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Reinforcing high pressure will build from the northwest late
week, then set up a cold air damming regime over the weekend as
it pushes into New England. A developing upper trough and
increasing moisture streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico will
likely result in an increase in rain chances Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
flight restrictions are possible in low stratus, otherwise VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: North to northeast winds will average 10-15 kt
overnight as high pressure builds in. Seas will range from 2-4
ft nearshore waters to 4-5 ft offshore waters.

Monday through Friday: A N to NE flow will persist before turning SW
overnight Wednesday for a brief period, then returning to NE flow
for the remainder of the week. Wind gusts could approach Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria in all waters Monday through Monday night,
especially in the outer GA waters. Gusts could again approach SCA
criteria on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens. SCAs are not
anticipated at the moment. Seas will generally range from 2-4 ft in
the nearshore waters and 4-5 ft in the outer GA waters, and
decreasing to 2-3 ft in all waters near mid-week. Following the
increasing trend in winds, seas will then begin to build throughout
the day on Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a very low chance that tides could reach marginal
Coastal Flood Advisory levels again during the Monday morning
high tide along the SC coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Temperatures have dropping into the 30s across much of Door
County, so have added them to the Frost Advisory overnight.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface
high pressure stretching from western Lake Superior to the
southern Plains early this afternoon. Diurnally enhanced
convective clouds are holding tough over northern WI thanks to
moisture fluxes off Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan.
Clouds further south over central and east-central WI have been
eroding, except near the Lake Michigan shoreline. With further
mixing into dry air, should see the clouds dissipate by late
afternoon. Looking upstream, mostly clear skies are present near
and west of the surface high. As this high moves across the region
tonight and west of the region on Monday, forecast concerns
mainly revolve around frost potential and gusty south winds.

Tonight...High pressure will slide across the region during the
evening to the central Great Lakes overnight. Most of the evening
will see clear skies and light winds, which will promote tumbling
temperatures. Some mid and high clouds do invade far northern WI
overnight, while boundary layer winds start to increase over
central and north-central WI. But conditions should be supportive
for a long enough time to generate frost over much of the region. With
agricultural interests determining that the growing season has
ended over central WI, will issue a frost advisory for parts of far
northeast and east-central WI, excluding Door County. Lows will
generally range from upper 20s to mid 30s away from the Lake.

Monday...Southwest winds will be strengthening ahead of a weak
cold front moving across the northern Mississippi Valley. Strong
gusty winds to 35 mph can be expected, peaking late in the
afternoon. Otherwise, should see ample sunshine, with only some
scattered mid and high clouds overhead at times. The southwest
winds will usher in warmer air, with highs ranging from the mid
50s to lower 60s, which is near normal for the date.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

An upper trough and Pacific cold front could produce a few sprinkles
or very light showers as it moves across the area Monday night.
Clouds and a steady breeze will hold temperatures up Monday night.

After a breezy and milder day Tuesday, a more vigorous upper trough
and accompanying weak cold front has a little better chance of
producing showers across northern Wisconsin Tuesday night, but the
best dynamics are across Upper Michigan. Highs will be about five
degrees above normal.

Dry and mild weather is expected Wednesday through Saturday. There
is a small chance that some showers could accompany a warm front
moving north across the region Friday, but not sure at this point.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Wind/LLWS will be the main concerns during this TAF period.

Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus have eroded rapidly early this
evening, leaving clear to partly cloudy skies. Winds were light
and variable due to a surface ridge of high pressure residing over
the forecast area.

The surface ridge will shift east overnight, allowing south to
southwest winds to develop. The winds aloft will increase first,
resulting in LLWS at the RHI/AUW/CWA TAF sites late tonight into
Monday morning. By 15z-16z/Monday, surface winds will increase
significantly, with gusts to near 30 knots expected through the
afternoon. As the surface winds decrease Monday evening, LLWS
will ramp up again.

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Gusty northerly winds will cause conditions hazardous to small
craft through the end of the afternoon. Buoys over the northern
Lake have been consistently running in the 4-6 ft range so far
today, though those higher waves are most likely further out
towards the open waters and not right up against the shoreline.

The area will be in between a departing high to the southeast and
an approaching low pressure system to the northwest Monday and
Monday night. This will bring gusty south winds to the Lake
Michigan waters Monday afternoon and Monday night. Winds could
gust to gale force at times, especially around the Door Peninsula
late Monday afternoon and evening. Gale headlines may be needed
in subsequent forecasts if these wind gusts maintain themselves or
increase. Winds do not look quite as strong on the Bay, but may
approach gale force for a few hours late in the afternoon into
early evening as well.

Will let the current small craft advisory expire before issuing
headlines for Monday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Monday for WIZ020-022-031-037>040-
045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
MARINE.........MPC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 727 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2020

Line of showers has filled in this evening so bumped up pops
accordingly, but all of this activity will be exiting to the east
in the next 2 to 3 hours, with cold/dry advection kicking in
behind the cold front. There is quite an extensive area of low
clouds back to the northwest behind the front and this stratus
will overspread the area by late this evening or midnight. RAP
hangs onto the moisture associated with these clouds through much
of the night and with upslope flow, this may be a reasonable
forecast. Thus, going to beef up the clouds more late tonight,
which will likely limit valley fog. Also with a weak gradient
continuing overnight, fog may struggle even if it did clear.
Forecast update has been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2020

A cold front stretched through KY from a little east of KCVG to
KBWG late this afternoon. It was producing some showers which were
still just to the west of the JKL forecast area, with the greatest
concentration of showers along the northern extent of the
boundary. The front will progress southeast, and exit out of the
state later this evening. Showers will affect some locations, with
the greatest concentration expected to continue in the north. Even
there, only chance POPs were in order. Clouds will increase as the
front approaches and moves through, and last into the night. The
extent of clouds and dry air advection behind the front will
determine our fog potential for tonight. Valleys will be most
likely to hold on to low level moisture during the night, and if
the clouds break to a great enough extent, fog would be expected,
especially in the deeper valleys in southeast KY.

Any fog will dissipate on Monday morning, and as diurnal heating
occurs, mixing will also break up any clouds. Dominating high
pressure moving in from the northwest will then bring clear skies
Monday night. Forecast dew points no lower than around 40 will
limit our low temperatures on Monday night. Otherwise, frost
could be a concern as the high passes over.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2020

The extended period will feature a large area of high pressure
that will bring dry and steadily warming temperatures to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday onward. Daytime highs will range from the
mid to upper 70s for most locations, while nightly lows will range
from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Mostly clear skies and light
and variable winds will also be on tap, as high pressure takes
hold. The latest model data tries to bring some rain into the area
from early Saturday morning through Saturday evening. This rain
would be associated with a tropical system that is forecast to
form over the Caribbean Sea this week and then perhaps move
through central Gulf of Mexico and eventually northeastward
through Tennessee Valley. However, this a low confidence part of
the forecast. Therefore, we left in only minimal slight chance
PoPs across the southern half of the forecast area from around
dawn Saturday through late Saturday evening. Aside from that, the
weather for eastern Kentucky should be dry, with a steady warm up
taking place through out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2020

A cold front will bring shift the very light southwest winds to
the northwest this evening, but winds should generally remain 5
knots or less at the TAF sites. A line of showers associated with
the cold front will impact areas from KJKL to KSJS through about
01z, before exiting. The more relevant aviation concern tonight is
the area of MVFR cigs associated with some low stratus that will
overspread the area by late this evening and continue through much
of the overnight hours. These MVFR cigs will quickly erode through
the morning hours on Monday giving way to VFR conditions. There
remains some question as to how fast the clouds will erode either
late tonight or tomorrow morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

 853 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.UPDATE...With higher moisture in the region, especially over the
west side, stratus should be inland further into the Umpqua basin.
Otherwise, expect a repeat of last night tonight. Current forecast
looks on track and will not update this evening. Sven


&&

.AVIATION...For the 05/00Z TAFS...VFR conditions prevail across the
area this afternoon. The exception is along the coast from Brookings
south where LIFR conditions persist due to coastal stratus. Also,
there are some MVFR/IFR vsbys around due to wildfire smoke, in
northern California and across southeastern portions of Lake County.
Expect the current conditions to prevail through the TAF period with
little change expected for most areas. Marine layer stratus will
return to coastal areas again late this evening and overnight.
However, coverage will be less extensive and increasing offshore
(east to northeast) flow will likely lead to earlier clearing of the
marine layer compared to recent days, especially north of Cape
Blanco. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 4 October 2020...The thermal
trough will continue to strengthen into Monday evening, producing
stronger north winds and building wind waves. The wind seas are
combining with a moderate west swell to produce steep seas south of
Cape Blanco this evening, then spreading to the rest of the coastal
waters late tonight into Tuesday morning. Seas may become very steep
and approach warning levels south of Cape Blanco and beyond 10 nm
from shore Monday afternoon.

Winds diminish as the thermal trough shifts inland Tuesday into
Wednesday. Seas will actually build slightly on Tuesday as the
transition from wind wave to fresh swell is accompanied by modestly
building longer period northwest and south swells. Improvement in
conditions will be brief, from Wednesday into early Friday.

A pattern change to more active weather is expected this weekend.
Expect periods of increased southerly winds that will likely result
in at least advisory level conditions as multiple fronts move
through the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...Stubborn low clouds and fog continue to affect areas
from Pistol River southward this afternoon as well as in portions
of Coos and NW Douglas Counties. Weak offshore east winds develop
over the coastal mountains tonight and continue into Monday
morning in response to a rebuilding offshore ridge and a
strengthening surface thermal trough in NW CA/SW OR. This could
allow stratus/fog to dissipate near Brookings. But, given the
time of year, not sure the winds will be strong enough to
completely clear, especially with a coastal eddy present just
offshore to the south. So, have left patchy clouds/fog in there
overnight. Still expecting stratus/fog to linger/reform in Coos
and western Douglas County and could be some that develop in the
Umpqua Valley near Roseburg toward sunrise. Other than that,
it`ll be clear with some smoke/haze persisting in northern
California and east of the Cascades.

Models continue to show a dry, warm pattern continuing across the
area through at least the middle of the new work week. Recent
runs of the HRRR smoke model have been unavailable, but previous
ones have suggested the potential for at least some high level
smoke returning to the north, including Medford, Monday
afternoon/evening with thicker smoke persisting across NorCal. We
should expect at least hazier conditions on Monday compared to
today with the possibility of some degradation in air quality,
especially for areas of higher terrain. Overall, high temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above normal. Expect similar conditions
to persist through Wednesday.

The upper ridge will begin to break down late this week (Thu/Fri)
resulting in daytime temperatures gradually lowering closer to
seasonal normals along with an increase in humidity. Models and
ensembles continue to show a transition to a cooler, wetter
pattern later Friday into the weekend, but not without some
changes. Recent guidance is showing the flow splitting initially,
allowing the lead shortwave disturbance coming in from the
Pacific Friday to head into California. This lowers confidence a
bit as we head into next weekend, but a strong 170+ jet across
the north Pacific should lead to a potent trough and cold front
moving through the PacNW Saturday. So, while not a complete
"lock", we do think wetting rains are likely across a large part
of the area next weekend. One thing to note is that the system
next weekend will be moving quickly and latest model data suggest
that rainfall probably won`t be heavy enough for burn scar
flooding/debris flows - mostly beneficial though to help bring
this unrelenting fire season to an end. Of course, it`s still 6
days away, so we`ll be monitoring the model trends and updating
the forecast as we get closer. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 1 PM PDT Sunday, October 4th, 2020...The
fire weather environment remains significantly warm and dry
through Wednesday. High temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal
will continue, and overnight ridgetop humidity recoveries
continue to be moderate to poor...with low daytime humidity in
most locations.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of FWZ 285, the
Modoc, for this afternoon and evening for gusty west winds and low
humidity. With fuels near record dryness for this time of year,
today is certainly a watch out day there.

East winds are still expected tonight into Monday morning and then
again Monday night into Tuesday morning, most notable along and
near the Curry County coast and out toward Slater Butte in western
Siskiyou County. However, while notable due to the ongoing fires,
this is a light event in which peak wind gusts are most likely to
be in the 15 to 25 mph range through the east to west oriented gaps
and passes. As the air RH recoveries are expected to be the lowest
of the week on Tuesday morning.

The general winds aloft turn southerly Tuesday afternoon and
increases into Thursday. The last of the very dry days will likely
be Wednesday, so we`ll be watching that day for potential Fire
Weather Watch in the next few days. Latest model data suggests that
windy conditions on the ridgetops won`t materialize on Friday,
contrary to the previous data, so please stay tuned. Any strong
winds, even with higher humidity, could bring down snags or drought-
stressed trees and pose safety risks to any ongoing firefighting
or rehabilitation efforts.

Wetting rains are still likely sometime between Friday to Sunday,
though latest model data brings the first rainmaker Friday mainly
south of our forecast area into Central California. This generally
lowers our confidence some for widespread wetting rainfall over the
weekend, but it`s still 60-70%, highest from Cascades westward...and
lowest east of the Cascades. We do expect another system to move in
on Saturday and bring significant rainfall with it. One additional
note is that latest model data has suggested less of a threat for
burn scar flooding, but we`ll keep an eye on trends as we move
forward. Keene/BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT
Wednesday for PZZ356-376.      Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday
to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for      PZZ350-370.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 239 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

The main short term forecast concern is the potential for critical
fire weather conditions in some areas on Mon.

Dry weather will continue tonight and Mon.  On Mon, an upper moving
through the northern and central plains states, will send a dry
front into southeast CO.  The HRRR shows the winds over the far
southeast plains increasing later in the morning hours, especially
over Kiowa County. Winds along the I-25 corridor are expected to be
northerly in the early afternoon, just not as strong as the eastern
border areas, and then should become more easterly through the
afternoon.  RH values will be low across all of southern CO on Mon,
with generally 10% or lower at the lower elevations, and the fuels
are dry.  At this time, it looks like Kiowa County could see the
combination of RH values of below 15% and strong enough wind gusts
by about 17Z, and these critical conditions continuing through the
afternoon in that area, and will issue a Red Flag Warning for this
area.  By late afternoon, far eastern portions of El Paso and maybe
some of Crowley County could also see the stronger wind gusts that
will put them into the critical category for fire weather concerns,
as well as a part of western Saguache County. However, these areas
are not expected to see widespread critical conditions for a long
enough period to warrant a fire weather highlight.  Temps on Mon
will be above average with highs mostly in the 80s over the plains
and in the 70s in the high valleys, with upper 60s to lower 70s in
Teller County.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

High pressure will continue to build into the area starting Monday
night into Tuesday. The upper-level ridge will persist but will
flatten out Thursday and Friday before rebuilding slightly through
the weekend. Weather is expected to be dry and quiet through the
week, and daytime temperatures should remain slightly above normal,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s over the plains and 60s-70s
over the mountains and valleys. Our first chance of a change to the
existing pattern sets in on Sunday, where an upper-level trough is
expected to dig through Colorado through next Monday or Tuesday,
bringing with it the chance of precipitation over the mountains as
we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at KCOS,
KPUB and KALS.  Winds will generally be under 10 kts overnight. KCOS
should see northerly winds increase in the late morning or early
afternoon Mon with gusts near 20 kts, the becoming more easterly by
late afternoon.  KPUB should see winds become northerly in the late
morning hours on Mon and then become more easterly in the afternoon,
mainly 10-15 kts with possibly some stronger gusts toward late
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ234.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...28



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Riverton WY

 451 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...This evening through Monday night
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

The stubborn ridge will flatten a bit today, with the midlevel flow
becoming more westerly over the area. This is still a dry and warm
regime, and in fact, high temperatures will be even warmer today
(10 to even 15 degrees above normal in some places). The westerly
flow will not only advect warmer temperatures, but more smoke as
well. The HRRR smoke model shows a significant increase in smoke
over the area today, before being mostly ushered out by a weak
cold front tonight. Speaking of smoke, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected today as the west wind picks up and RH
values drop to near critical values. While some places may reach
RH or wind thresholds for critical fire weather, confidence is not
high that these thresholds will overlap. For now, we will
continue with a Rangeland Fire Danger statement for areas in
southern Wyoming and will closely monitor conditions early this
afternoon.

By Monday morning, a weak cold front will drop into eastern and
central Wyoming as a dry shortwave clips the area. This will lower
highs east of the Divide Monday...but they will still be 5 or 6
degrees above normal. This front will also bring slightly more low
level moisture, increasing RH values across central and northeastern
areas. Southwestern Wyoming will not get the front and accordingly
will not get the moisture. In fact, RH values are expected to be in
the 10 to 15 percent range across these areas. With an increased
west to northwest wind, we do expect critical fire weather
conditions Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Upper level northwest flow will reestablish itself over the region
Tuesday. Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through
forecast period. In addition, elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions will continue through the week. This will be due to
critically low RH values and breezy afternoon winds. Upper level
flow will turn to the southwest by Wednesday, as the ridge axis
shifts eastward. Record highs will be possible Thursday, as the dry,
southwest winds continue to warm the region.

Models continue to prog a pattern change by next weekend, with a
major Pacific storm moving onshore over the West Coast Friday night.
The ridge axis will shift over the Rockies as a result. Also, upper
level flow will strengthen from the southwest Friday. Red Flag
conditions look likely Friday under this pattern. Saturday is
looking less likely, as the timing of the front could impact the
area on Saturday. This would result in higher humidity, as
precipitation chances increase (especially over far western
portions).

Precipitation chances will continue to increase across
the west Saturday night, as the system digs southward toward the
Four Corners region. Cooler with chances for precipitation will
spread eastward through the overnight hours, as the system moves
over the Cowboy State Saturday night. This will likely be a valley
rain/mountain snow event, as we are not looking at a bitterly cold
system. 700mb temps are looking to be in the 0 to -4C range with the
onset of the system. Greatest impacts will likely be across the west
and mountains, with much colder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
subside by 01Z in most locations. A few sites will have a
sustained wind 10+ kts through the overnight hours. A cold front
will progress southward east of the Divide after 12Z Monday, with
winds turning north-northwest in response to the frontal passage.
Gusty winds will return after 18Z, mainly impacting KBPI, KPNA,
KRKS and KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Westerly flow returns today, as the ridge aloft flattens out.
This will bring drier and gustier winds to the state, especially
across southern WY. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
for 277, 278, 279, and 289 this afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger
statement has been posted for those areas. Will monitor for
further wind increases, which may push conditions to near-
critical for 289 and the eastern portions of 279 late this
afternoon.

A cold front will move across areas east of the Divide on Monday,
bringing brief gusty north winds and increasing moisture. This
will limit the fire weather threat for most of northern and
central WY. Southern WY will remain in the dry and breezy regime,
with humidity levels below 15 percent and gusts of 20 to 25 mph
possible. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for 277, 278, and
279 through Monday afternoon.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for WYZ277>279.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Myers
LONG TERM...LaVoie
AVIATION...LaVoie
FIRE WEATHER...Straub/Myers